At Capital Weekly 25 January 2009

8/14/2019 At Capital Weekly 25 January 2009

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25 January2009 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH

_______________________________________________________________________________________ATCapitalWeeklyUpdate 4

With manufacturing being about 40% of GDP, manufacturing is

certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall

economymaybeclosetoarecession

So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth or possibly

negativegrowth inQ4;andtheQ1figures lookevenworse.So

China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged

officialnumbersclaim.

AlbertEdwards,ChiefGlobalStrategistatSocieteGeneral,anda

well known China bear, has suggested that the Chinese

manufacturingsectorisalreadycontracting.Hestatedthat:Thatthis outturn (Q4 Chinese GDP of 6.7%) was bang in line with themedian estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg makes itall the more unbelievable in my mind.All other economic dataworldwide have been surprising massively on the downside andChina should be no exception.Afew hours earlier,for example,South Korea reported Q4 GDP had declined a hefty 5.6% QoQ,massively worse than a Reuters consensus which looked for acontraction of 2.7%! I naively thought that this QoQ decline wasalreadyannualized,butitwasnot.OnaUSstyleofreporting,theSouthKoreaneconomycontractedata20%annualizedrateinQ4.

Asia is in depression. Whatever the heavily manipulated ChineseGDP is telling us, that economy must now be contracting. TheYuanneedstobedevalued...wecannothighlightstronglyenoughhow truly mindbogglingJapans collapse in exports to China are.LastJuly they were expanding at a 16% yoypace. Now they arecontractingata35%yoyrate! This isaphenomenonthroughoutthe region. Hence despite the notoriously manipulated ChineseGDP data showing a shocking slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8%yoy, I would eat my hat if the Chinese economy was doinganythingotherthancontractingrightnow.

TheGlobalBankingCrisisPart67

Bank stocks came under severe pressure last weekwith Bank of

Americaleading

the

charge

lower

in

the

US

and

Barclays

playing

the rabbit in the headlights in the UK. The charts below from

Bespokeinvestment.com highlight just how extreme the

downwards repricing of the financial sector of the S&P 500 has

been.Thefirstchartbelowdatesbackto1990,andasshown,the

sectorclosedatitslowestlevelsinceMarch1995yesterday. The

sector is now down 79% from its highs in 2007. A chart of the

sectorallthewaybackto1940showsjusthowmuch thesector

hasfalleninsuchashortperiodoftime.

Global Markets Last Week Oil Bounce Appears Unsustainable

givenWeakGlobalEconomy


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Bangladesh is ranked 90 in the overall ranking for starting a

business compared to good practices. It requires 7 procedures,

takes73days,andcosts25.67%GNIpercapitatostartabusiness

inBangladesh.Proceduressuchasverifyingtheuniquenessofthe

proposed company name with the Registrar of Joint Stock

CompaniesandFirms,filingdocumentswiththeRegistrarofJoint

Stock Companies and Firms for registration, registering with the

taxauthorityandforVAT,shouldallbesimplifiedinordertoease

theprocess

of

starting

up

abusiness.

Dealing with construction permits is also an arduous process in

thecountry Itrequires14procedures,takes231days,andcosts

739.81 % GNI per capita to build a warehouse in Bangladesh.

Obtaining project clearance and building permit from the City

Development Authority (RAJUK), obtaining zoning clearance,

receiving foundation inspection and electricity inspection, are

some of the procedures that need to be simplified in order to

enhancetheoveralleaseofdoingbusinessinthecountry.

Although Bangladesh ranks low at 175 (after Pakistan, India,

Afghanistan) in registering property compared to global best

practices, it has simplified the number of procedures needed to

registerproperty, timerequired to registerproperty,and official

costs to register property. The time needed to register property

has been cut by almost half, from 425 days to 245, through

reformsattheMunicipalDeedRegistryOffice.Simpleprocedures

toregisterpropertyareassociatedwithgreaterperceivedsecurity

ofpropertyrightsandlesscorruption.

Bangladeshs ranking for getting credit has fallen from 51 in the

2008Doing Business report to 59 in the 2009 report. The credit

information index in the graph below shows that over the past

threeyearsthelevelofcreditinformationavailableinBangladesh

hasremainedstagnant,while inSouthAsiaasawhole,therehas

been a significant improvement in the availability of credit

informationsince2008.

IFCBICF stakeholders opinion survey shows there is

overwhelmingsupportforreforms

It isevident fromtheDoingBusiness2009report findingsthat

Bangladesh isstill lackingbehind inanumberofareascompared

to global practices, which can use major reforms and

improvements. Along with specific regulatory reforms pertaining

to

businesses,

such

as

simplifying

procedures

for

obtaining

construction permits, accessing credit, trading across borders,

enforcing contracts, reforms in areas of education, corruption,

energy, infrastructure, are also mandatory in order to attain

highereconomicgrowth.

IFCBICF conducted a stakeholders survey in 2008 (from

SeptembertoNovember) inordertoanalyzehoweconomicand

business conditions affect different groups of stakeholders.

Stakeholders include citizens, opinion leaders/ elites,businesses,

andpublicofficials.Theobjectivesofthesurveysweremainlyto

understand:

what are the key perceptions and attitudes of the stakeholders

towardeconomicandbusinessenvironmentinBangladesh

What are the views of the stakeholders about economic and

businessreformsinBangladesh

How confident are the stakeholders about the economy and

businessenvironment inBangladesh,andhowdoestheir levelof

confidencechangeovertime

Howdoestheknowledgeandattitudeofthestakeholdersabout

economicandbusinessreformissueschangeovertime.

The surveys were broken down into three categories

Stakeholders Perception Survey (SPS), Business Confidence

Survey (BCS), and Public Perception Survey (PPS). With a fairly

large sample size, the survey was the first of its kind in

Bangladesh.Belowaresomekeyfindingsfromthesurveyresults.

Perceptionsof

current

business

environment

A majority of the stakeholders said that the country's economic

situationdeteriorated inSeptember2008butsaw improvements

in October 2008. This was mainly because high prices of

commodities and essentials were a concern in September 2008

butsome improvementswereseen inOctober2008 intheSPS

survey conducted in September, when asked about some of the

leadingconcernsintheeconomy,83%ofopinionleadersand84%

ofthegeneralpopulationsurveyedhadhighpricesonthetopof


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their list of concerns, followed by jobs and employment,

corruption, electricity, lack of democracy, crime and terrorism,

education,etc.

Similar to the economic situation, the countrys business

environment is also viewed as unfavorable, and the situation is

notexpectedtoimproveanytimesooneither.

The business confidence survey revealed that there was a

completereversal inthe investmentsituation in the firstquarter

ofFY2008comparedtothecorrespondingperiodof2007,dueto

adecliningprofitmarginandashortageofrawmaterials.

Sixty two % of respondents during the survey said they did not

invest during JulySeptember of 2008 while only 38 % replied in

theaffirmative.

Overwhelming support for reforms across all groups of

stakeholders

When asked how much the stakeholders have heard about

business reforms, 85% of ordinary citizens and 66% percent of

opinion leadersrespondedbysayingthattheyheardnothingat

all about reforms; 8% of ordinary citizens and 20% percent of

opinion leaders said that they had some idea about business

reforms.Although

both

the

general

population

and

the

elite

group

do not know or hear much about reforms, their support for

reformsisoverwhelming84%ofopinionleadersand76%ofthe

general population surveyed feel that reforms are necessary for

theirowneconomicbetterment.

Aninterestingfindingwasthatreformsintheagriculturesectoris

givenalotofimportance,especiallybythegeneralpopulation

56%ofthegeneralpopulationand31%ofopinionleadersstated

thattheagriculturebusinessclimateneedsimprovement.

Supportforparticularlybusinessreformswasexpressedbyboth

opinionleadersandordinarycitizensduringthesurveys

Whenaskedwhy theysupportbusiness reforms,a largenumber

ofstakeholders

responded

that

abetter

business

environment

will

create more job opportunities and will help in controlling

inflation. High prices are still a major concern, and so, many

believe that a good business climate will ultimately help in

loweringpricesofessentials.

MajorityoftheStakeholdersviewBangladeshseconomic

situationisworsethanbefore(SPS,Sept08)

2 2 0

2113 16

3242

34

73

83

81

0

20

40

60

80

10 0

12 0

14 0

GeneralPo p u lat io n O p inio nL ea de rs S ME/ Micr o

Somewhat worse

Muchworse

Somewhatbetter

Muchb et t er

Majorityofthebusinessesviewtheiroverallsituationisworse

todaythan3months

16% 2%

38% 11%

35%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Better

Unchanged

Worse

ModeratelyBetter Substantially

Better Moderately

Better Substantially

Better

Inyouropinion, whatistheoverallsituationofyourbusiness

todaycomparedto3monthsago?

Decliningprofitmarginandshortageorrawmaterialsarethe

leadingconstraintsforlackofinvestment(BCS,OctNov08)

2026 2 8 28 29

38

52 61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% ofFi rms

Reformsarenecessaryforthestakeholders(SPS,Sept08)

76

84

24

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

GeneralPopulation O pinion Leaders

Necessary

No t necessary

Mostimportantreforms(SPS,Sept08)

4

4

22

27

56

25

29

31

10

13

13

29

31

32

35

37

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Infrastructure

Constitutional

Crime&Terrorism

Business

Agriculture

Political

Corruption

Education

OpinionL e ad er s G en er alPopulation

Regardlessofwhichtypeofreformsthe governmenthasbeenworkingon,inyour

opinion,whichtwoofthefollowingareasismostimportanttoreforms?


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Survey results show that the general population and opinion

leaderswantagreaterfocusonSMEs

The Business Confidence Survey results show that the business

condition of SMEswas worsening in the last quarter of calendar

year 200816%ofsmallcompaniessaid theirsituationbecame

substantially worse in October, compared to 8% of medium

companiesand

3%

of

large

companies.

That

SMEs

need

agreater

attention was also emphasized by both the general population

andopinion leadersduringthesurveyasignificant62%ofthe

generalpopulation,and61%ofopinionleadersstatedduringthe

survey that the government should focus more on helping small

andmediumenterprises.

SMEshave longbeenconsideredastheprincipaldrivingforceof

Bangladeshseconomy.Alongwithstimulatingprivateownership

andentrepreneurialskills,SMEsareflexibleandcanadaptquickly

to changing market demand and supply situations, generate

employment, help diversify economic activity, and make a

significant contribution to exports and trade. At a time such as

now, when the economy is vulnerable to the adverse affects of

theglobal financialcrisis,boostingtheSMEsector,knownasthe

economys thrust sector, is absolutely imperative. Thus

improvementsinareassuchasaccesstoloans,trainingonhowto

start up businesses and procedures required, and registration

processes,arenecessaryinordertoencourageSMEstogrow.

RRCs efforts for modernizing the countrys public

administration

TheRegulatoryReformCommissionwasformedbythecaretaker

government inOctober 2007,uponrealizing that it is imperative

to modernize public administration and simplify legal and

procedural complexities, in order to create the right enabling

environment

for

foreign

as

well

as

domestic

investment.

Thecommissionconsistsoffoursubcommittees,withinwhichone is

working on utility service related reforms, and one for land

registration and related reforms. The RRC is responsible for

reviewing and updating all government regulations totaling to

about50,000,manyofwhicharedecadesoldbutstillbeingused

todaythecommission isremovingallredundantandinefficient

regulations, and is identifying those regulations that should be

modifiedorleftunchanged,simplifyingcertaingovernmentforms,

and is reducing the time required to process applications and

licensesbygovernmentdepartments.(PleaserefertoAppendix1

toseesomeofthekeyrecommendationsmadebytheRRC)

OneoftheimportantrecommendationstheRRCmadewasforthe

Directorate of Land Registration to be transferred from the Law

Ministryto

the

Ministry

of

Land

to

allow

a"one

stop

service"

for

land registration. However, this recommendation is yet to be

implementedduetocomplexitiesrelatedtotheHighCourt.

However,anumberofrecommendationshavebeenimplemented

successfully. Following RRC recommendations, the Government

startedtopublishgazettenotificationson itswebsiteandstarted

developinganewwebsiteincorporatingallpreviousgazettes.The

RRCsuggestedthatallproposedregulationsmustbepublishedin

draft form for feedback from civil society members before

finalization.

The commission recommended online registration with the BoI,

uniform fees or charges for registration of investment projects

and reforms in the BoI. A consultant was appointed for starting

onlineregistration

and

the

BoI

took

the

issue

of

uniform

fees

into

consideration.

ThecommissionproposedthatBangladeshBankshouldbeableto

make decisions regarding private sector foreign loans without

informing the BoI. In August 2008, the Chief Adviser's Office

during theCaretakergovernmentdirectedtheBoIandtheBBto

implementthiswithintwomonths.

Extenttowhichcitizensagreewiththestatementthatbusiness

reformsaremuchneededinBangladesh86

2

12

96

1 3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Agreeorstronglyagree Disagreeorstrongly

disagree

Don'tknow/Refuse

OrdinaryC it izens E li teGroups

AttentionneededonSMEversuslargecompanies(SPS,Sept08)

24

34

62 61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GeneralPopulation OpinionLeaders

TheGovernmentshouldbefocusmoreattentiononhelpingsmallandmediumenterprises

TheGovernmentshouldbefocusmoreattentiononhelpinglargecompanies

SomekeyobstaclesfacedbytheSME/microentrepreneurs(SPS,

Sept08)

1

3

4

10

11

12

21

34

43

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0

Interacti on w i t h ta x officials

I n c o m e ta x

Val ue a d d e dta x ( V A T )

G o v e r n m e n t corrupti on

P r e s s u r efrom fami l y, fri ends

G o v e r n m e n t regi strati on process

Lackof access to l oans

L e a r n i n gho w to do busi ness

Ow n fear of failure


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TheRRCsuggestedlegalizationof"courierservice"inthecountry,

by amending the Post Office Act 1898. The Ministry of Post and

Telecommunicationshaveimplementedthis.

RRCs recommendation for reducing the time of giving location

clearance and environment clearance certificates was accepted

andimplemented.

The

government

has

also

implemented

the

recommendation

regardingbondedwarehouselicensingprocesses.

Although the RRC has made over 30 recommendations and has

sent them to the ministries for immediate implementation, the

implementationprocesshasnotbeensuccessfulinallcases. Red

tapism,bureaucraticcomplexitiesandsomependingcases inthe

HighCourthavehinderedtheprogressofthereforms,apartfrom

a few. It has also been reported that some ministries have not

cooperated with the RRC. According to The New Nation, a local

daily, the RRC selected 202 laws and regulations for review and

amendment, and drafted their synopsis. In order to do this, the

RRC sent notifications to 47 ministries or departments back in

November 2007. However, only nine ministries or departments

respondedtoRRC'srequestforassistanceandcooperation.

Need to adopt Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA)

asatooltoimproveregulatoryenvironment

In a recent Financial Express article regarding the need for

introducing RIA to the regulatory system in Bangladesh, Syed

AkhtarMahmoodwrote:

We often talk about streamlining the existing stock of

regulations.Thisisindeedatoppriority.Butwealsoneedtothink

about the quality of new regulations. If the flow of new

regulations isofpoorquality,thestockwill remainbad. It is like

cleaning thewater inaswimmingpool.Nousedoingthat ifyou

cannotensurethatthenewwaterflowinginisalsoclean.

So how do you ensure this? The answer lies in introducing a

processwherebynewrulesandregulations,atleasttheimportant

ones,aresubjected toan impactanalysis.The ideaofan impact

analysis is not novel in Bangladesh. When a government agency

doesaproject,sayaroad,ahospitalorapowertransmissionline,

it is required to carry out a costbenefit analysis andjustify the

planned investment. The Planning Commission then reviews the

analysis, and approves or rejects the project. Whether these

exercises are done properly is of course a matter of debate

Bangladesh is replete with examples of projects that were done

on purely politicalconsiderations with little analysis of the costs

and benefits to society. But the rules of business of the

governmentdorequiresuchanalysis.

While

it

is

definitely

a

priority

to

remove

redundant

regulations

andupdatetheexistingones,thequalityandeffectivenessofnew

regulationsalsoneedmuchattention. Inshort,RegulatoryImpact

Analysis (RIA) aims to improve the quality of regulations,

regulatory institutions and regulatory systems. It is basically a

systematic process of evaluating the cost and benefits of

regulations.

In Bangladesh, new rules and regulations are often introduced

without any prior notice or consultation with relevant

stakeholders. Even where consultation takes place, this is often

inadequate and the feedback is not adequately incorporated in

the framing of the regulations. This creates major uncertainty

regarding theeffectivenessof the regulations.RIAexaminesand

measuresthelikelybenefits,costsandeffectsofneworchanged

regulations. It provides decisionmakers with valuable empirical

data and a comprehensive framework which they can use to

assess options and the consequences their decisions may have.

RIA

is

used

to

define

problems

and

to

ensure

that

government

actionisjustifiedandappropriate.

RIAaimstoimprovetheregulatoryenvironmentby:

I. Building a regulatory management systemRegulate the

regulators through transparency and accountability mechanisms

(laws,policies,institutions,enforcement,etc.)

II. Improving the quality of new regulationsControl of the flow

(RIA,consultation,alternatives,coordination,etc.)

III. Upgrading thequalityof existing regulationsControl of the

stock (deregulation, updating, codification and restatement,

formalities,etc.)

RIA has been widely used in OECD countries, and is increasingly

beingusedindevelopingcountriesalso.Around40countrieshave

introduced

RIA

including

90

%

OECD

countries,

while

about

20

developing countries are implementing or actively exploring the

scopetoestablishRIA.

TheRiseinRIA

RIAreducesregulatoryburdens

The chart below shows that the RIA process is extremely

comprehensive. Internally, it is the key mechanism for assessing

the impact of new or existing regulations, and thereby reducing

duplicative and contradictory policies. Also RIA helps to identify

possibledifficultiesandshortcomingsduringthe implementation

and

enforcement

phase

of

regulation.

Externally,

RIA

promotesregulatory transparency and accountability of administration

through consulting with stakeholders and incorporating their

suggestions. As its use expands, RIA can help define which

governmentactionsaresuitedtoamarketeconomy.

Source:Jacobs&Associates


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InternationalexperienceofusingRIA

More than half of the OECD governments and many Eastern

Europeancountries intransitionhavebeensuccessfullyusingRIA

tools in regulatory decisions. The OECD reference checklist for

regulatory decisionmaking is elaborated in Appendix 2. In Asia,

theuseofRIA isstillagrowingconcept,but isnonethelessbeing

used in several countries. A survey organized by the Centre on

RegulationandCompetition(CRC)attheUniversityofManchester

in 2003 2004, indicated that at least nine Asian countries have

developed elements of a modern RIA: India, Jordan, Korea,

Malaysia,Oman,Pakistan,thePhilippines,SriLanka,Thailand.

Amongthesecountries,thePhilippines,Malaysia,andKoreahave

made significant progress. Philippines established RIA as a legal

requirement, though the government had not published the

implementing regulations and guidelines. In practice, the

Philippines government has concentrated its RIA effort on new

economic regulations complementing its efforts through

enhanced public consultation and the use of public notices and

invitationstocomment,followedbypublicmeetings.

InMalaysia,elementsofaRIAprocesshavebeenusedwithinthe

government, though not on a consistent and systematic way.

Unlike in the Philippines, the MalaysianRIA, when adopted, was

applied to social and environmental regulations as well as to

economic ones. In Malaysia, public consultation before the

introduction of new regulations seems well developed with all

respondentsinagreement.

Korea,

which

has

attained

remarkable

economic

growth

partlyduetosuccessfulbusinessandeconomicreforms,introducedRIA

to itsregulatorysystem in1998. InarecentDailyStararticleon

the Korean experience on reforms, Anwarul Islam wrote, [In

Korea, RIA] enables the public officials in charge of designing

regulations to take informed decisions on how to make

regulations viable, sound and effective. Assessment areas and

factors for RIA include: overview of regulation in question,

identifying regulated entities and stakeholders, lifetime of

regulation,shortdescriptionofboththeexistingregulationbeing

reviewedandthenewregulationbeingdevelopedandregulation

mapping,i.e.,themappingofrelationshipbetweentheregulatory

proposal in question and the existing regulations relating to it,

costbenefitanalysisofalternativestotheregulation inquestion.

The ministry concerned must gather public opinions during the

stipulated 20day notice and comment period and report the

resultsofitsreviewtothosewhoprovidedinputsontherelevant

regulatoryproposals.

OthercountriesinAsiawhichhavestartedtoexperimentwithRIA

are Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka. Vietnam recently launched a

prototype RIA for helping the government reform two key laws:

TheUnifiedEnterpriseLawand theCommon InvestmentLaw. In

Sri Lanka, the Institute of Policy Studies together with the

ManchesterCenterforRegulationandCompetition,initiatedaRIA

WorkingGroupwherepublicofficialsandacademicparticipateon

thedevelopmentofaRIAsystemforthecountry.

LaunchingRIAinBangladesh

Efficient and businessfriendly governance requires the modern

methodsandtoolsoftheRIAprocess. Althoughtheredoesexista

review process in the government of Bangladesh for new laws,

rules

and

regulations,

it

merely

ensures

that

the

proposed

rules

andregulationsareconsistentwiththeexistingones.ButtheRIA

undertakes more than just that, as it analyzes the impact of

proposed rules and regulations. If Bangladesh wants to become

one of the most attractive investment hubs in Asia, business

regulationsneedtobepredictableanduseful,andthiscanonlybe

donebyintroducinganRIAprocesstotheregulatorysystem.

SuggestionsforeffectivelydevelopinganRIAsysteminBD:

- It will be useful to have a program of regulatory impact

analysis (RIA) within various ministries, monitored by an

independent body overlooking all the RIAprograms. Hence,

all new laws and regulations that are passed through each

ministry should be justified through basic cost benefit

analysis.Inordertoenactthis,allministriescouldbeasked/

required to answer the basic regulatory quality questions

designedbytheOECD (PleaseseeAppendix2).Thegoalfor

thejustificationshouldbetoshowthattheproposed lawor

regulationminimizescoststoconcernedbusinesses.

- As mentioned above, a politically neutral and independent

body needs to be in place to monitor, oversee, and

strengthen the RIA process. This advisory body should

receive the regulatoryjustification statements, and consult

with stakeholders and the business sector, and make the

suggestions public. Hence, the public should be involved

extensively in the process interest groups should be

consulted widely and in a timely fashion. Korea is a good

example

where

public

opinion

is

integrated

into

the

rulemakingprocessTheRRChasconductedsurveyseveryyear

to hear the public and experts' opinions on the regulatory

reform.Theresultsofsurveyhavebeenusedasfeedbacksin

setting future policy directions every year (Anwarul Islam,

Regulatory Reforms: Korean experience, Daily Star).

Consultation before the introduction of new regulations is

imperative in creating a transparent and accountable

regulatorysystem.

Source:presentationmadeatCRCbyProf.DavidParketattheUniversityofManchester


11/25



- Althoughallregulationsneedtobejustifiedbyacostbenefit

analysis,analyticalmethodscanvaryaslongasRIAidentifies

and weighs all significant positive and negative effects and

integrates qualitative and quantitative analyses. Mandatory

guidelines should be issued by the independent oversight

bodytomaximizeconsistency.

- ResultsofRIAmust be communicated clearly with concrete

implications

and

options

explicitly

identified.

A

common

formatshouldbeusedinordertocommunicateeffectively.

- The independent body monitoring the RIA process should

also be in charge of guidance and training upgrading the

qualityandconsistencyofRIAtraininggovernmentwide,and

ensuring that good practices around the world are

transmittedquicklyandefficientlytocivilservants.

- The private sector will play a vital role in making RIA

successful in Bangladesh. Second, business involvement in

RIA has several significant benefits in terms of improved

information. Businesspersons, especially those affected by

regulations,canconstitutecosteffectivesourcesofthedata

needed to complete high quality RIA. Consultation can also

provideimportant

indications

on

the

feasibility

of

proposals,

ontherangeofalternativesconsidered,andonthedegreeof

acceptance of the proposed regulation by affected parties.

Moreover,activeparticipationbythebusinesssectormeans

better compliance with the regulation and thus savings in

termsofimplementationandenforcement.

- Some of the institutional methods that Bangladesh could

exploretomaximizebusinessparticipationintheRIAprocess

consist of establishing (Cordova, Cesar Enabling

Environment and Economic Zones for Private Sector

DevelopmentinBangladesh)

Expertgroups,suchasacademicandindustrygroups;

BusinessTestPanelsorganized foraparticularregulation.They

canbefast,butdataqualitycanbeaproblem;

Focusgroups,whichcanprovideawiderangeofdata;

Developmenttogetherwith thebusinessassociationsofmodel

enterprisesthatrepresenttheaffectedpopulation;

Opinion surveys, which can identify major issues, and in

particularrepeatedlyrunningtheFIASadministrativebarrier

surveys,and

Directinterviewswithbusinesspersons.

IftyIslam

ManagingPartner

[email protected]

JishaSarwar

SeniorResearchAssociate

[email protected]


12/25



APPENDIX1

Some of the key recommendations made by the RRC and their

implementationstatus(asofmid2008):

1. All gazette notifications must be published on the website,

which has already been implemented with technical assistance

fromBangladeshInvestmentClimateFund(BICF) amultidonor

initiativemanagedbytheInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC).

2. All proposed regulations must be published in draft form for

feedback from civil society members before finalization. The

MinistryofLaw,Justice,andParliamentaryAffairshasvettedthe

amendment of the government's "Rules of Business, 1996" to

include"Rule16,"andthisrecommendationnowawaitsapproval

ofthecouncilofministers.

3.TheinvestmentregistrationprocessoftheBoardofInvestment

(BOI)mustbesimplified.AccordingtoSection10(1)ofInvestment

Board Act, 1989, BOI will introduce speedy online investment

registrationprocessthroughitswebsite.Paperregistrationsmust

be processed within 24 hours. According to section 11(5) of the

Investment Board Act, 1989, investment enquiries must be

answered within 15 days unless otherwise advised. BOI

registrationservice

fee

is

being

contemplated

to

be

set

at

aflat

rate,regardlessoftheproposedinvestmentamount.

4.Subcommitteeon"processingandapprovalof foreignprivate

loans", under the leadership of Bangladesh Bank's governor,

proposedthatthesoleresponsibilityandauthorityforapprovalof

foreignprivateloansbevestedwiththeBangladeshBank.TheBOI

and BB have been directed by the Chief Adviser's Office to

implementtheRRCrecommendationwithintwomonths.

5.Thelegalizationof"courierservice"inthecountry,byamending

the Post Office Act 1898. The Ministry of Post and

Telecommunicationsistakingstepstoimplementthis.

6.TheDirectorateofLandRegistrationshouldbetransferredfrom

the Law Ministry to the Ministry of Land to allow a "onestop

service"forlandregistration.TheHighCourthasplacedawritand

stay order against this executive decision for a period of three

months.

7. Subcommittee on location and environmental clearance

recommended that the "Bangladesh Environment Conservation

Act, 1995" and "Environment Conservation Rules, 1997" be

amended by the Department of Environment, so that the time

takento issueLocationClearanceCertificatesandEnvironmental

ClearanceCertificatescanbehalved.

8. Subcommittee on duty drawback and exemption system,

capital machinery import clearance system, and bonded

warehouselicensing

system

recommended

the

National

Board

of

Revenue(NBR)tosimplifythedutydrawbackapplicationformby

June 30 and move to an industrybased instead of enterprise

basedcoefficient identificationsystemtostreamlinetheprocess.

NBRisadvisedtointroduce"riskbasedinspectionandclearance"

system for capital machinery imports, where about 5%10%

consignmentswillbeinspectedbySeptember30.Inaddition,NBR

is advised to improve Bond Warehouse Licensing Process by

allowing nonassociation members to apply for such licenses

withoutreferralsfrommembers.

APPENDIX2

TheOECDReferenceChecklistforRegulatoryDecisionMaking

1.Istheproblemcorrectlydefined?The problem to be solved should be precisely stated, giving

evidenceof its natureandmagnitude,andexplaining why ithas

arisen(identifyingtheincentivesofaffectedentities).

2.Isgovernmentactionjustified?Government intervention should be based on explicit evidence

that government action is justified, given the nature of the

problem, the likely benefits and costs of action (based on a

realisticassessmentofgovernmenteffectiveness),andalternative

mechanismsforaddressingtheproblem.

3.Isregulationthebestformofgovernmentaction?Regulators should carry out, early in the regulatory process, an

informed comparison of a variety of regulatory and non

regulatorypolicy instruments,consideringrelevant issuessuchas

costs, benefits, distributional effects and administrative

requirements.

4.Istherealegalbasisforregulation?Regulatory processes should be structured so that all regulatory

decisions rigorously respect the rule of law; that is,

responsibility

should

be

explicit

for

ensuring

that

all

regulations

are authorised by higherlevel regulations and consistent with

treatyobligations,andcomplywithrelevant legalprinciplessuch

as certainty, proportionality and applicable procedural

requirements.

5.Whatistheappropriatelevel(orlevels)ofgovernmentforthisaction?Regulators should choose the most appropriate level of

government to take action, or if multiple levels are involved,

shoulddesigneffectivesystemsofcoordinationbetweenlevelsof

government.

6.Dothebenefitsofregulationjustifythecosts?Regulatorsshouldestimatethetotalexpectedcostsandbenefits

of each regulatory proposal and of feasible alternatives, and

should make the estimates available in accessible format to

decisionmakers. The costs of government action should be

justifiedbyitsbenefitsbeforeactionistaken.

7.Isthedistributionofeffectsacrosssocietytransparent?To the extent thatdistributive and equityvalues are affected by

governmentintervention,regulatorsshouldmaketransparentthe

distributionofregulatorycostsandbenefitsacrosssocialgroups.

8. Is the regulation clear, consistent, comprehensible andaccessibletousers?Regulators should assess whether rules will be understood by

likelyusers,andtothatendshouldtakestepstoensurethatthe

textandstructureofrulesareasclearaspossible.

9. Have all interested parties had the opportunity to presenttheirviews?Regulations should be developed in an open and transparent

fashion,

with

appropriate

procedures

for

effective

and

timelyinput from interested parties such as affected businesses and

trade unions, other interest groups, or other levels of

government.

10.Howwillcompliancebeachieved?Regulators should assess the incentives and institutions through

whichtheregulationwilltakeeffect,andshoulddesignresponsive

implementationstrategiesthatmakethebestuseofthem.


13/25



StockMarketWeekly

Marketsummary

DSEperformance:30days

DSE erformance:52weeks

Valuationsnapshot

Re ionalstockmarket erformance lastweek)

Marketnews

Shinepukur Ceramics to raise BDT 800mn (USD

11.62mn)inbonds.

ACItoraiseBDT1.3bn(USD18.88mn)inbonds

Bangladesh remains decoupled from both regional

andglobalmarkets

RSI indicators have moved back to neutral territory

suggesting market overbought condition has

corrected

FuelandPower+Investmentleadthewaylower

IndexperformanceDSEGeneral

IndexDSE20

Openingofthisweek 2695.58 2,199.3

Closingofthisweek 2671.06 2,189.2

Changewithinaweek (%) -0.9% -0.5%

Changewithinaweek (Point) -24.5 -10.1

Capitalizationandturnover ThisWeek LastWeek %Change

NumberofTradingDays 5 5

MarketCapitalization(USDbn) 14.80 15.15 -2.34%

TotalTurnover(USDmn) 209 255 -18.0%

DailyAvg.Turnover(USD mn) 41.75 50.91 -18.0%

TotalVolume(mn) 124 156 -20.7%

DailyAvg.Volume(mn) 25 31 -20.7%

Weightedavg.P/ERatio* IssuesThis

Week

Last

Week

ThisWeek 17.06 Advanced 144 104

LastWeek 17.34 Declined 121 158

%Change -1.6% Unchanged 3 2

*WeightedonMarketCap. NotTraded 31 29

SectorP/E

Aug08 Sep08 Oct08 Nov08

Banks 19.08 18.24 15.62 15.62

Cement 10.96 10.34 10.32 8.91

Ceramic 49.92 43.93 41.76 32.17

Engineering 39.11 41.36 40.8 31.94

Food&Allied 17.85 19.44 17.09 14.77

Fuel&Power 17.81 20.2 19.14 16.29

Insurance 23.17 24.77 23.12 17.69

Investment 45.08 55.48 28.93 21.42

IT 41.44 45.64 47.89 33.96

Jute 16.16 16.16 14.18 14.18

Miscellaneous

25.46

33.95

32.2

23.32

Paper&Printing 8.36 8.08 9.97 7.32

Pharmaceuticals 23.97 28.45 30.25 26.26

Service&Real Estate 20.57 22.87 23.55 18.74

Tannery 19.05 19.89 18.44 14.87

Textiles 15.74 15.45 14.55 12.43

Source:DhakaStockExchange


14/25



WeeklyStockMarketCommentary

Thisweekthemarketwasdownby0.9%forthethirdconsecutive

week, and the daily average turnover was down by 16.5%. The

turnover volume dropped significantly as investors, especially

retail investors,remainedshakyamidtherecentbearishtrend in

the market. Out of 297 stocks, 144 advanced, 121 declined, 3

remained

unchanged

and

29

were

not

traded.

Two

newly

listed

companies started trading this week. BSRM joined the stock

market by floating 2mn ordinary shares at BDT 100 each, while

RepublicInsurancejoinedbyoffloading90,000ordinarysharesat

BDT 100 each. Similar to the previous week, this week retail

investors also focused intensively on Zlisted stocks. Among the

top ten gainers, nine of them were from Zlist categories. Zlist

stocksare categorised by virtue of their lackofcompliance with

SECregulations(Ex.filingofaccounts)orareunprofitablesoare

largelyconstitutedofcompanieslackingfundamentalqualities.

RSI indicators have moved back to neutral territory suggesting

marketoverboughtconditionhascorrected

TheRelativeStrengthIndex(RSI)oftheDSEGeneralIndexisnow

at 48 .8 with a consolidating trend in the last three days of this

week.AlsotheMACDlineisbelowandparalleltoits9dayssignal

line, showing that a significant trend has not developed yet. As

can be seen in the chart below, the key overbought/oversold

indicatorsfortheDGENare70and30respectively.Typicallywhen

theRSIhits70,themarkettendstocorrectandselloff,aswasthe

caseearlierthismonth,whereaswhentheRSIhits30,wetypically

getabounce. The principalbehindmomentum indicators is that

they capture when too muchof the market is positioned in one

direction. If there are a majority of investors who are long the

market,thereisdiminishingnumbersofprospectivebuyerswhich

leavesthemarketvulnerabletoprofittaking.ThecurrentRSIdoes

notgiveanystrongtechnicalsignal ineitherdirectionsuggestion

consolidation until the market receives some new fundamental

news.

RSIandMACDmovementofDSEGeneralIndex:

Bangladesh remains decoupled from both regional and global

markets

WiththeSensexdownalmost6% lastweekandtheKSEdowna

massive17%+,themoves in theDGENremainextremelymuted.

With

the

S&P

500

down

3.5

%

andthe

European

stock

markets

also down sharply, Bangladesh remainsone of the few truly de

coupledEMmarketsintheworld.

Sector Update Fuel and Power + Investment lead the way

lower

This week the Fuel and Power and Investment sectors

declined significantly by 4.9% and 4.1%, respectively. The major

reasonofthedecline intheFuelandPowersector isthe100%

bonusshareand50%cashdividendissuedbyPadmaOilCompany

Ltd., a state owned petroleum products distribution company.

AftertherecorddatewhichwasJanuary18,thepriceofthisstock

droppedby47%andthusaffectedthemarketcapitalizationofthe

FuelandPowersector,thoughthebonussharehasnotstarted

tradingin

the

market.

In the Investment sector, among the 17 mutual funds, only

threeincreasedwhilepricesofrestoftheunitfundsdecreased.

TheEngineeringsectorgrewby5%thisweek,largelydrivenby

Atlas Bangladesh Ltd., a state owned motorcycle and three

wheelerassemblingcompany.AtlasBangladeshLtd.isthesecond

largestcompany in theengineering sector,as it contributes 20%

towardsthesectorstotalmarketcapitalization.

The IT sector grew by 1% last week following an increase of

2.7% the previous week. The sector is showing a rising trend

recentlywiththenewgovernment'sthrustinthearea.According

to DSE statistics, the IT issues' weighted average price earnings

(P/E) ratio surged 46.5 in 2008 against 15.2 in 2007 and 11.1 in

2006. The rising P/E ratio of this sector implies the investors

positiveperceptionaboutthegrowthofthesector.


15/25



StockMarketNews

Shinepukur Ceramics to raise BDT 800mn (USD 11.62mn) in

bondsTheDailyStar,TuesdayJanuary20,2009Shinepukur Ceramics, an exportoriented bone china and

porcelain

tableware

manufacturing

company,

has

decided

to

borrow BDT 800mn (USD 11.62mn) from its parent company

Beximco by issuingconvertible bonds , inorder to setupa new

bonechinaunit.However,inordertoissuebonds,thecompanys

shareholders and the Securities and Exchange Commission must

approve.

Thenewbonechinamanufacturingunit,which isexpectedtobe

completed inOctober2009,aimstoincreaseproductioncapacity

and sales turnover.Productioncapacitywill increase by150% to

25,000pieces a day fromcurrently10,000manufacturedpieces.

Additional exports worth BDT 1.1bn (USD 15.98mn) and a net

profitofBDT200mn(USD2.9mn)isexpectedtobegenerated.

Shinepukur signed an agreement with a German company on

January18th

for

setting

up

the

new

unit

at

the

Beximco

Industrial

ParkatGazipur.

http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=72078

ACItoraiseBDT1.3bn(USD18.88mn)inbondsTheDailyStar,MondayJanuary19,2009Advanced Chemical Industries (ACI) Limited has decided to raise

BDT 1.30bn (USD 18.88mn) by issuing convertible zero coupon

bonds,forloanrepaymentandfresh investments.Azerocoupon

bond isabondboughtata price lower than its facevalue,with

the face value repaid at the time of maturity. Convertible zero

couponbondmeansthatthebondisconvertibleintoacompany's

commonstockorshare.

The issuanceofthe 'ACI20%ConvertibleZeroCouponBond',the

first of its kind, is however subject to the approval of the

Securitiesand Exchange Commission.Thematurityperiodof the

bond is five years with yearly redemption, meaning that 20%

valueofthebondwillberepaidtotheinvestorseachyearwitha

10.5%discountrate.

Alongwiththediscountorinterest,theinvestors,excludingbanks

and insurance companies, will get tax exemption on the income

generatedfromthezerocouponbonds.Thebondswillbetraded

ontheDhakaandChittagongstockexchanges.

The bond will be issued through both private placement and an

initial

public

offering.

Alliance

Financial

Services

Ltd

is

the

issue

manager of the bond, and Industrial and Infrastructure

DevelopmentFinanceCoLtdisthefacilitymanager.

ACI,whichhas investments inpharmaceuticals,consumerbrands

and commodity products, agribusinesses, crop care and public

health, livestock and fisheries, fertiliser and seeds business,

posted net profits of BDT 362.5mn (USD 5.27mn) in 2007.



16/25



ResearchTeam

IftyIslam

ManagingPartner

[email protected]

SyeedKhan

Partner

[email protected]

MohammadEmranHasan

SeniorAssociate

[email protected]

DGENPerformanceLTMDGENPerformanceYTD

Correlation withotherindices*

S&P500 Sensex NIKKEI225 KSE100 SSECI FTSE100 Hangseng DSES&P500 1Sensex 0.609533 1

NIKKEI225 0.479296 0.57751 1KSE100 0.137983 0.245628 0.136849 1

SSECI 0.315464 0.411735 0.245613 0.09449 1

FTSE100 0.843726 0.610483 0.494904 0.238387 0.431538 1Hangseng 0.704434 0.677905 0.526227 0.110829 0.509843 0.786434 1

DSE 0.161589 0.193995 0.103366 0.05588 0.035032 0.131261 0.143725 1*Basedonthelast86monthsUSDreturns

Source:ATCapitalResearch

Marketcap.bysector*

Banks 51.0%

Fuel&Power 13.8%

Pharmaceuticals 11.6%

Insurance 5.5%

Cement 5.1%

Miscellaneous 3.0%

Engineering 2.4%

Foods 2.1%

Textile 1.9%

Service&RealEstate 1.2%

Tannery 1.2%

Ceramics 0.7%

IT 0.5%

Paper&Printing 0.1%

Jute 0.03%

Total 100%

*AsofNovember30,2008

Turnoverleaders

(Allfiguresinmn) BDT USD

Beximco Pharma 1285 18.7

BEXIMCO 1074 15.6

ShinepukurCeramics

Limited

991

14.4TitasGas 939 13.6

SummitPower 754 11.0

BSRMSteelsLimited 584 8.5

GrameenOne:Scheme2 375 5.5

UttaraBank 345 5.0

ACIFormulationLimited 339 4.9

SummitAlliancePortLimited

326 4.7

Source: Dhaka Stock Exchan e

Bestperformers* Worstperformers*

%Change %Change

Meghna PET 49.0% PadmaOilCo. -46.7%

Shaympur Sugar 37.8% BEMCO -25.3%

Rangamati Food 35.9% Al-HajTextile -16.7%

Quasem Silk 35.7% EagleStarTextile -10.7%

Quasem Textile 32.6% NationalHousingFinanceandInvestmentLtd.

-9.7%

Lexco 30.3% 8thICBM.F. -8.2%

B Monospool Paper 29.0% 3rdICBM.F. -7.9%

Bd. Welding Electrodes 28.7% PragatilifeInsurance -7.3%

Al-Amin Chemicals 28.6% GlobalInsurance -7.1%

Megha Condensed 26.5% BEXTEXLimited -6.6% *Byclosingprice

Source:DhakaStockExchange


17/25



Economics

Selectedmacroeconomicindicators

Country'stradebalancenarrowsinfirsthalfofFY09

Inflowofforeignaidnormal

Uptrendinexportearningscontinues

Manpower export suffers blow as KL bans overseas

recruitment

BEPZAexpectstoattractmoreinvestmentsinEPZs

Series of BB steps to expedite flow of inward

remittances

Recessionfearsloomovershrimpexports

JishaSarwar

SeniorResearchAssociate

[email protected]

Latesttreasuryyields

Marketnews

LatestBangladeshInflationRates

20Jan08 13Jan09 20Jan09

Forexreserves(USDmn) 5677.81 5471.15 5430.92

USDBDTaveragerate 68.5800 68.9500 68.9499

Callmoneyrate 13.79 9.32 9.48

Dec07 Dec08 200708

Remittances(USDmn) 635.34 765.79 7,914.78

Annual%agechange 14.46 20.53 32.39

Nov07 Nov08P 200708

Imports(USDmn) 1,661.80 1,816.50 21,629.00


Nov 07 Nov 08P 200708

Exports(USDmn) 1144.47 1297.47 14,110.80


Sep07 Sep08P 200708

CurrentA/CBalance(USDmn) 20.00 46.00 672.00

Nov07 Nov08P 200708

Taxrevenue(USDmn) 506.24 551.57 6,868.43

Annual%age

change

26.59

8.96

27.06

Source:SelectedindicatorsbyBangladeshBank,21January2009

Oct08 Nov08 Dec08

General 209.31 207.14 204.90

Inflation 7.26 6.12 6.03Food 226.88 223.98 220.64

Inflation 8.08 6.68 6.83Non

food

186.13

184.95

184.29

Inflation 5.95 5.25 4.76Source:BangladeshBureauofStatistics

Auction date Tenor & security type Weightedaverage yieldDec-08 91-dayT-bill 7.91%

Dec-08 182-dayT-bill 8.16%

Dec-08 364-dayT-bill 8.58%

Dec-08 5-yearT-bond 10.60%

Dec-08 10-yearT-bond 11.72%

Source:BangladeshBank


18/25



EconomicNews

Country'stradebalancenarrowsinfirsthalfofFY09

TheFinancialExpress,SundayJanuary25th,2009Thecountry'sbalanceoftrade inthefirsthalfoffiscalyear2009

narrowedtoUSD3.2bnfromUSD3.5bnduringthesameperioda

year

ago,

owing

to

a

rise

in

exports

and

decline

in

imports.

DuringthefirsttwoquartersofFY09(JulyDec)exportsearnings

stood at USD 7.5bn while import payments were USD 10.7bn.

DuringthesameperiodinFY08,thecountryreceivedUSD6.49bn

forexportswhileimportpaymentswereUSD9.078bn.

The country's export target for the current fiscal year has been

fixed at USD 16.29bn, 15.5% higher than FY 08. During the last

fiscal year, the country exported goods worth USD 14.5bn and

madeimportpaymentsofUSD20.37bn.

Export growth was 18.33% during the first 6 months of FY 09,

which is around 3 percentage points higher than the projected

target.Thecountry'soverall importpaymentduring the firstsix

monthofFY09grewby only6.84%compared to17.25%during

thesame period inFY 08,mainlydue todecliningpricesof fuel,

edibleoilandothercommoditiesintheinternationalmarket.

If the present trend continues, it will ease pressure on the

countrys balance of payment and will help strengthen the

country'sforeignexchangereserve,whichstoodatUSD5.6bnon

January22,2009.

http://www.thefinancialexpress

bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=56958

Satisfactoryinflowofforeignaid

TheFinancialExpress,SaturdayJanuary24th,2009InflowofforeignaidintoBangladeshhasnotbeenaffectedbythe

global financial downturn, as the government has received USD

830.41mn in foreign aid during the first half of the current

financial year. The amount received was USD 8.0mn higher than

that received during the corresponding period of last financial

year(200708).

ThegovernmentexpectstoreceiveUSD2.14bn inaidduringthe

currentfiscalyear.Outofthetotalamount,USD65mnisexpected

tocomeasfoodaid,USD10mnascommodityaid,USD1.72bnas

project aid and USD 350mn as budgetary support credit.

Out of the total USD 830.41mn disbursed foreign assistance

duringJulyDecemberofthisfiscalyear,USD748.62mnwasgiven

asloan,

and

only

USD

81.79mn

was

given

as

agrant.

http://www.thefinancialexpressbd.info/2009/01/24/56831.html

ManpowerexportsuffersblowasKLbansoverseasrecruitment

TheFinancialExpress,FridayJanuary23rd,2009Bangladesh'smanpowerexportisexpectedtodeclinesignificantly

as Malaysias government declared that it will not hire new

foreign workers in the manufacturing and services sectors amid

fearsthatitseconomiccrisiswillleadtomorejoblossesforlocals.

Malaysian Home minister Syed Hamid Albar told the country's

leadingEnglishdaily,NewStraitsTimes,thatthereisnoreasonto

bring in foreigners after a government report showed 45,000

peoplewillbelaidoffattheendofJanuary.

Thetwo

sectors

manufacturing

and

services

employ

one

million

foreign workers currently. These employees will be allowed to

work until their permits expire, unless they are laid off before

then. Malaysia's Deputy premier Najib Razak said the foreign

workers will be sent back in batches so as not tojeopardize the

country'seconomy.

"Almost all of the 131,000 Bangladeshis that found jobs in

Malaysiain2008were inthemanufacturingandservicessector,"

said a senior official of Bangladesh Bureau of Manpower and

Training(BMET)."AhiringfreezeinMalaysianmayresultindrastic

drop inmanpowerexportsandremittance.Alreadythousandsof

workers have returned home from Singapore," he added.

Malaysiawas the third biggest employer ofBangladeshi workers

lastyear,

followed

by

Saudi

Arabia

and

the

United

Arab

Emirates

(UAE).

Manpower exports in December slumped by nearly 50 % to

44,000,theworstmonthlyfigurelastyear.

Arecord875,055Bangladeshifoundoverseasjobs lastyear,with

the UAE employing 419,355 and Saudi Arabia 132,124 people.

During the period, eight million overseas workers sent home a

recordUSD8.9bn,whichaccountsforover12%ofBangladesh's

grossdomesticproduct(GDP).


BEPZAexpectstoattractmoreinvestmentsinEPZs

TheFinancialExpress,ThursdayJanuary22nd,2009The Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (BEPZA) is

expecting to attract more investments in the country' Export

Processing Zones (EPZs) as the government has approved their

proposal for setting up two new EPZs. The country will have a

totalof10EPZsafterthetwonewzonesinFeniandMeghnaare

setup.

BEPZAofficialsstatedthattheirdecisionforexpansionwasmainly

based on the high demand and flow of both local and foreign

investment. In fiscal year 2008, total investment was USD

302.19mn, almost a 100% increase from USD 152.37mn in fiscal

year 2007. Investments reached USD 74.7mn during the first six

monthsof

the

current

financial

year.

According to Prasanta Bhusan Barua, a member (Investment

Promotion) of the BEPZA, the BEPZA signed agreements worth

USD1.4bnwithanumberofinvestorslastyear.

Data showed that the BEPZA's contribution to total national

exportisincreasingsteadily.InFY08,thetotalexportofEPZswas

worthUSD2.4bn,whichwas17.2%ofBangladesh'stotalexportof

USD14.11bn; InFY07 thetotalexport ofEPZs wasUSD2.06bn.


19/25



ExportearningsstoodatUSD1.26bnduringthefirsttwoquarters

ofthecurrentfiscalyear(July08Dec08).

Currently, a total of 292 enterprises are operating in eight EPZs

and,125plants intheprocessofbeing implemented.Ofthe292

industrialplants,173areforeignowned,48arejointventuresand

therest71areownedbylocalinvestors.Currently228,932people

areworking intheEPZs.Ofthem82,416(36%)aremaleandthe

restare

female

(64%).

BEPZA officials stated that each EPZ will have a central effluent

treatment plant. Chittagong Waste Treatment Plants Ltd. has

beenapprovedforsettingupsuchaplantintheCEPZ.


SeriesofBBstepstoexpediteflowofinwardremittances

TheFinancialExpress,TuesdayJanuary20th,2009TheBangladeshBank (BB)hastakenaseriesofmeasuresaiming

toexpeditetheflowofremittancesintothecountry.

TheBBhasrecentlyformedasevenmembercommittee,thefirst

ofits

kind,

in

order

to

monitor

and

supervise

the

overall

inflow

of

remittances.Furthermore,theBBhasgivenpermissionstothree

privatecommercialbanks(PCBs)recentlyforsettingupexchange

houses in Malaysia and United Kingdom. Both Malaysia and UK

are important sources of remittances. Earlier, the BB took an

initiativetoboostremittanceinflowfromMalaysia.Aspartofthe

move,theBBaskedtencommercialbankstosubmitactionplans

forincreasingtheflowofinwardremittancesfromthecountry.

BangladeshreceivedatotalofUSD92.44mn inremittancesfrom

Malaysia in fiscal year 2008 compared to only USD 11.84mn in

fiscalyear2007.Remittance inflow fromUKalsogrew fromUSD

886.9mninFY07toUSD896.1mninFY08.

RemittanceinflowreachedUSD486mnduringthefirsthalfofthis

month. In December Bangladesh received USD 765.8mn in

remittances from abroad, an increase of USD 4.4mn from

November.Thecountry's foreignexchange reservestoodatUSD

5.5bn on Monday due to robust growth in remittance inflow,

accordingtothecentralbank.


bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=56499


20/25



Agriculture

ACIwillopen200chainshopsasitforaysintoorganizedretailing

TheFinancialExpress,Sunday,January25,2009Leading conglomerate ACI plans to open around 20 value stores

across the country in the next four months, making it the first

companytodonationwideorganizedretailing.Thecompanyhas

opened two stores in Dhaka and plans to replicate them across

the country. At present the company is working with the price

propositions; they want to make the chain stores affordable for

themasspeople.Anofficialfromthecompanystated,Wehave

already opened up twostoresand willopenat least20byMay.

Wehaveaplantolaunch200storesinprimelocations."


bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=56962

Agrobased

industries

to

be

set

up

in

CHT

TheDailyStar,Saturday,January24,2009The government will set up agrobased industries in the

ChittagongHillTracts (CHT)region. Fruits like lemon,pineapple,

orange,jackfruitandguavaarelargelygrowninthreehilldistricts

oftheregion.Ifagrobasedindustriesareestablishedthenvarious

foodproductscanbeproducedbyprocessingthefruits.


GiveenoughloanstoBorofarmers

TheDailyStar,Monday,January19,2009BangladeshBankaskedeightpublicsectorbanks,whodistribute

80%

of

total

agricultural

loans,

to

provide

adequate

loans

tofarmers during the Boro season. The BB mandate followed the

governmentsrecentdecisiontocutfertilizeranddieselprices.

Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor directed the banks to give

quickandhasslefreeloanstofarmerssothattheydonotfaceany

financialproblemsinbuyingagriculturalinputsincludingfertilizers

and seeds. He told managing directors of the banks to monitor

properdistributionof loansatthefield level.HesaidBangladesh

Bankwouldmonitortheirprogress.


Recessionfearsloomovershrimpexports

TheDailyStar,MondayJanuary19th,2009Shrimpexportsare expected to fall significantly thisyear,as the

priceanddemandforshrimpshavefallenindevelopedcountries,

themainconsumersoflocalshrimpexports. BuyersintheUSand

EuropehavebeenurgingBangladeshiexporterstoreduceshrimp

prices. According to industry insiders, the price of shrimp has

droppedbyUSD1perpound,oraboutBDT155perkilogram, in

late2008comparedtothe2007price.

In fiscal year 2008, the price of 16 to 30 grade shrimps, which

accountsforaround65%ofthetotalfrozenshrimpexport,ranged

betweenUSD5.20andUSD5.50,butnowithascomedowntoas

lowasUSD4,markinga3032%decline,AccordingtotheBFFEA

(BangladeshFrozenFoodsExportersAssociation).

In Bangladesh frozen food is the second highest export earner

after apparels. In FY 2008, the country exported frozen foods

worthUSD534mn.ThegovernmentsetatargetofUSD574mnfor

thisfiscalyear,butexportersrevised ituptoUSD600mn.Shrimp

accountsforover80%offrozenfoodproducts.

TheEuropeanUnion,USAandJapanarethethreemainmarkets

for Bangladesh's frozen shrimp, with the EU and the US

accountingfor48%and40%,respectively,oftotalexports.

About 10mn people are directlyand indirectly involved with the

shrimpbusiness,whichisconcentratedintheKhulnadistrict.

The BFFEA has already requested the government to create an

emergencyfundfortheshrimpexporterstoprotectthemfroma

liquiditycrisis.According totheassociation, formationofa40%

interestfreeblockaccountfacilityforaperiodoffourtofiveyears

willhelptheindustrycopewiththesituation.

http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/newsdetails.php?nid=71944

Aviation

TwonewairlineswillbeginoperationsinDhakasoon

TheDailyStar,WednesdayJanuary21,2009Two new airlines Indian Kingfisher Airlines and the Malaysian

carrierAirAsiaBerhad willbeginoperations inDhakawithinthe

nextthreemonths.

KingfisherAirlines,ownedbyIndianliquorbaronVijayMallya,will

operateon theDhakaKolkata route frommidFebruary,andwill

bethesixthairlineontheroute.AirAsia,oneofthemostlowcost

carriers in Asia, will start DhakaKuala Lumpur flights from early

March.Theairlineplanstooperatesevenflightsaweek.


SectorNews


21/25



Banking

Fiveforeignbanksfailtodisburseagricultureloans

TheDailyStar,ThursdayJanuary22nd,2009

Despite the central bank's order, five foreign commercial banks,

including HSBC, have failed to disburse any agriculture loans

duringthe

first

two

quarters

of

FY

09.

Other

banks

that

have

not

disbursedanyfarmcreditincludeBankAlFalah,HabibBank,State

BankofIndiaandWooriBank.

Nearly BDT 1340mn (USD 19.46mn) in agriculture loans was

disbursed by nine foreign banks during the first two quarters of

the current fiscal year; these banks include Standard Chartered

(USD14.49mn),CitiBankNA (USD2.47mn),CommercialBankof

Ceylon (USD 2.03mn) and National Bank of Pakistan (USD

0.44mn).

The central bank last year asked all local private and foreign

commercialbanks toallocate a reasonableamountof their total

loanportfolioforfarmcredit.TheBBisnowconsideringsettinga

farm

credit

target

for

private

and

foreign

commercial

banks

in

ordertoboostagricultureoutput.


Infrastructure&Energy

10powerplantsongovernment'sprioritylistThe Daily Star, Sunday January 25, 2009

As part of its efforts to solve the country's chronic power crisis,

the new government has decided to implement 10 power plant

projects,whichwere initiatedbypreviousgovernments.Eight of

theprojects will be implementedby thepublicsectorwhile two

will

be

undertaken

by

the

private

sector.

Theproposedprojectstobeimplementedinthepublicsectorare

300MWSiddhirganjpeakingplant,360MWHaripurplant,150MW

Sirajganj plant, 150MW Khulna plant, 150MW Bhola plant,

150MW Sylhet plant and the 210MW Khulna power plant. The

private sector plants are 450MW Bibiyana and 450MW Sirajganj

powerplants.

Amongtheprojects,loanagreementsweresignedbytheprevious

governments for Siddhirganj, Sirajganj, Khulna and Bhola power

plants. As per the agreements, the World Bank is supposed to

financetheSiddhirganjplantwhileJapaneseJBICwillfinancethe

Haripur project. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will finance

the Sirajganj and Khulna power plants, while the Islamic

DevelopmentBank(IDB)willfinancetheBholaproject.


WBtofundgasexploration

TheFinancialExpress,SundayJanuary25,2009TheWorldBankhasagreed to fundexplorationofnaturalgas in

Bangladeshforthefirsttimeinitshistory.

Finance and energy ministry officials said the fund would be

primarily provided to the stateowned oil and gas exploration

company,BAPEX,todiscovernewreservesintwoofitsuntapped

onshoreblocksingreaterMymensingh.

BAPEX has not undertaken any exploration activities during the

lastdecade,whichresulted inanoverdependenceonforeignoil

companiesand

ashortfall

of

250

mn

cubic

feet

of

gas

aday

since

Novemberlastyear.

The blocks in Mymenshingh have been considered hydrocarbon

rich, however, BAPEX needs to conduct an intensive exploration

drive toextractgas from them.BAPEXhasplanned toconducta

2400kilometretwodimensional(2D)seismicsurvey,geophysical

andgeologicalstudiesandadelineationofthedrillablesubsurface

structure.

http://mail.google.com/mail/?zx=u7n4lumq4oej&shva=1#inbox

Revenue generation, investment in infrastructures key

challenges

TheFinancialExpress,SaturdayJanuary24th,2009TheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)hassaidthekeychallengesfor

the new government over the longer term will be to raise

infrastructure investment and government revenue mobilization

and accelerate the Annual Development Program (ADP)

implementation.

Other challenges include improvement of institutional capacities

inkeylineagencies,creationofmorejobsandcopingwithpower

andgasshortagesforencouragingprivateinvestmenttoenhance

longerterm growth prospects, according to the ADBs recently

publishedreportonBangladesh's'PoliticalandEconomicUpdate'.



GasshortageaffectsprivateinitiativetogeneratepowerinEPZs

TheFinancialExpress,SaturdayJanuary24th,2009The plan for export processing zones in the country to run

industrialunits with theelectricityproducedby theirownplants

has not yet materialized due to a shortage of gas supply.

Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (BEPZA) officials

said six private power plants with a combined capacity of 240


22/25



megawatt were scheduled to start power generation in 2008.

However,onlytheplantintheDhakaEPZstarteditsoperationon

atrialbasistwoweeksago.

PowerplantsinChittagongandKarnaphuliEPZswereinstalledby

December 2008. However, private power companies, who won

the bid for producing power at Comilla, Adamjee and Ishwardi

EPZs,arewaitingforgassupply.



BBtofinancecaptivepowerplantsthrough'IPFFproject

TheFinancialExpress,FridayJanuary23rd,2009The central bank will finance the installation costs of captive

power plants along with small power projects (SPP) under its

investmentpromotionandfinancingfacility(IPFF)project.

Additionalfundswillbemadeavailablebythecentralbankshortly

through twoprivate commercial banks (PCBs) for setting up two

more SPPs in Feni and Chittagong to add at least 33 Megawatt

(MW)ofelectricitytothenationalgrid.

Dhaka Bank Limited will finance the Doreen Powerhouse and

TechnologyLimitedtosetupan11MWSPPatFeniwhileEastern

BankLimitedhasagreedtoprovideloanstoRegentPowerLimited

forsettingupa22MWpowerplantinChittagong.

TheWBearlierprovidedUSD50mnforthe IPFFProject for long

term financingof infrastructureprojectsunder thePublicPrivate

Partnership (PPP) framework while the government offered USD

10mnascofinanceroftheproject.



TullowappointsBAPEXtoexploregasatBangura

TheFinancialExpress,ThursdayJanuary22,2009Stateowned petroleum exploration and production company

BAPEX has entered into a deal with a foreign oil company to

produce gas in the Bangura field in the Comilla district. Irish

company Tullow has recently appointed BAPEX to start gas

productionfromitsnonoperativewell3attheBangurafield.

Tullowplanstoproduceanadditional25to30mncubicfeetofgas

perday(mmcfd) fromtheBangurafield.Thegasfield, located in

Block 9,hasbeenproducingabout100mmcfdofgasfromwell1,

2and5.Well3wasdevelopedinOctober2008.Tullowowns30%

of the total gas in Block9, while Canadian Niko Resources and

BAPEXown60%and10%,respectively.



Government to initiate power plant projects in pipelineNewAge,TuesdayJanuary20,2009The Awami Leagueled alliance government has taken an

initiativetodevelopthecostlyrentalpowerplantsandsmall

independent power plants, which were approved by the interim

government.

Power secretary, Nasiruddin Ahmed said, The caretaker

governmenttookstepstogeneratearound1100MWofadditional

electricity.Asperthatplan,around322MWelectricitywasadded

by December 2008. We are expecting around 730MW of

additionalelectricitybyJunethisyear.He furtherstatedthatan

additional 157.5MW electricity is expected to be generated in

January,131MW in February,287MW in March, 105MW inMay

and

50MWelectricity

in

June

from

a

numberof

short

and

long

termpowerplants,smallIPPsandonepublicsectorpowerplant.

http://www.newagebd.com/2009/jan/20/nat.html#1

LeatherGoods

Leatherexportsslowinfinancialrout

TheDailyStar,SundayJanuary25,2009Exportsoffinished leatherand leathergoodsdeclinedbyaround

18%duringtheJulyNovemberperiodofthecurrentfiscalyear.

According to the former chairman of the Bangladesh Finished

Leather, LeatherGoodsand FootwearExportersAssociation, Mr.

Sultan, the consumption of leather and its prices in the

international market went down by 30% last year, following a

declineininternationalproductionby6%.Industryinsidersexpect

leatherexportstodropby25% inFY09,whichwilldirectlyaffect

195tanneriesinthecountry.

Therearefourtypesofleather rawhide,wetblue,crushedand

finished leather.Bangladeshmainlyexportscrushedandfinished

leathers, demand for which dropped in the international market

duetotheglobaleconomiccrisis.

Leatherisoneofthemostimportantexportitemsofthecountry.

Some of the most common leather items are shoes, bags and

purses. Currently, the leather industry is worth around USD

508mn

a

year,

with

exports

accounting

for

USD

284mn

in

FY

08.Of

thetotalleatherexportsfromBangladesh,80%iscrushedleather

and the remaining is finished. The main exporting countries are

Italy,Japan,KoreaandChina,Sultansaid.

According to Mr. Sultan, the government should take necessary

measures todevelopandprotectthe leather industry.Essential

chemicals, such as sodium chloride and sulfuric acid that are

needed for conversion of animal hides to leather, have to be

importedandareveryexpensive,hesaid.Sultansuggestedthat

the government should reduce import duties and VAT on these

chemicals.


Pharmaceutical

Localcostartsmanufacturingrawmaterialsforpharmaceuticals

TheDailyStar,Thursday,January22,2009Active Fine Chemicals (AFC), a private company, started

manufacturing raw materials and chemical reagents for the

pharmaceutical industry, with an aim to reduce import

dependency.


23/25



AlthoughBangladeshspharmaindustryhassuccessfullysecureda

place in the global market in a short span of time, all of its

necessaryrawmaterialsstillneedtobeimportedfromabroad.A

few local pharmaceutical companies that do produce raw

materialscanproduceonly5%ofthetotalrequirement,andmost

of these products are used by themselves; the rest is imported

fromabroad.

AFC hopes to supply a major portion of the required raw

materials, which will save both time and costs. The company is

expectedtosupplyrawmaterialsworthBDT2bn(USD29.2mn)to

thelocalmarketthisyear.AFC'sfactoryhasalreadybeensetupin

Munshiganj at the cost of about BDT 500mn (USD 7.3mn).According to the senior vice president of the company, AFC has

already started producing a number of raw materials, including

reagentsusedindifferentlaboratories. Itwillbepossiblesoonto

produce raw materials used in cancer and diabetes preventive

medicines, he said. He also stated that a team of chemical

engineerscomprisingofmembersfromtheUSand Indiaarenow

workingwiththecompany.


Shipbuilding

Shipbuildersdispelrecessionfears

TheDailyStar,ThursdayJanuary22,2009Localshipyardshavebeenreceivingenquiriesfromforeignbuyers

aboutsmallvessels,despiteadownturnintheglobalshipbuilding

industry caused by the global recession. However, according to

localshipbuilders,buyersareoffering lowerpricesassteelprices

havedeclined.

Bangladesh, which has recently entered the global shipbuilding

market, is yet to face any cancellation in orders or delays in

payments.So far, localshipyards mainlyAnanadaShipyard and

WesternMarineShipyard havereceivedoverUSD600worthof

orders for making more than 40 vessels, with a capacity below

15,000 dead weight tonnes (DWT). Most of the orders for these

shipscomefromEuropeancountrieslikeGermanyandDenmark.

Accordingtoindustryinsiders,thereareabout300smallandlarge

dockyards, generating about 100,000 jobs, but only a few

companieshavebeenabletoattractforeignbuyers.


Telecoms

OperatorsaskgovernmenttoliftSIMcardtax

www.bdnews24.com,WednesdayJanuary21,2009Mobilephone operators asked the government to remove the

BDT 800 (USD 11.8) SIM card tax. During a meeting held on

Wednesday,themembersoftheAssociationofMobileTelephone

Operators Bangladesh asked the telecoms minister Raziuddin

AhmedRazutolookfurtherintotheTelecomOrdinance2008.

AccordingtoAMTOBpresidentandAKTELdirectorFazlurRahman,

theSIMcardtaxhasincreasedcustomers'expensesandimpeded

growthinthesector.

Officials present at the meeting represented grameenphone,

AKTEL, CityCell, Teletalk, WARID and Banglalink, and also the

ministry.

http://bdnews24.com/details.php?id=74333&cid=4

ATCComment:The6mobileoperatorspaidaroundUSD121mnin

sim taxes last year. This is impeding growth in the industry in

terms of mobile operators profitability and acquisition of new

mobile subscribers. Of the 6 mobile operators, only

Grameenphone is profitable, as the operators largely have to

subsidies sim prices in order to attract new customers. On the

otherhand,loweringmobilesimtaxestoPakistanslevel(around

BDT500)wouldallowmobileoperatorstosellsimsatpricesthat

are affordable for the rural population, as that is where mobile

subscribergrowthisexpectedtobeinthefuture.

StateownedBSCCLkeentorunnewcablelink

TheNewNation,ThursdayJanuary22,2009State

owned

BSCCL

(Bangladesh

Submarine

Cable

Company

Ltd)

is

interestedinsettingupanalternativesubmarinecablelinkinthe

country.

Bangladesh is now linked to SEAMEWE4 submarine cable, the

link managed and maintained by BSCCL. Of the 24.12 gigabyte

capacity,7.5GBisbeingused,statisticsshow.

http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/01/22/news0295.htm

TeleTalknetworktobeexpanded

TheNewNation,MondayJanuary19,2009Post and Telecommunications Minister Rajiuddin Ahmed Raju

Sunday said stateowned TeleTalk mobiles network and

broadband

would

be

extended

to

upazila

and

village

levels

as

soonaspossible.

A task force probe recently found serious irregularities in the

implementation of TeleTalk projects that caused losses of over

BDT 2000mn (USD 29.4mn). The implementation period of the

project was from 2002 to 2004, but it ended in July 2008.

Although the original estimated cost of the project was BDT

5940mn(USD86.22mn),totalcostsendedupbeingBDT8010mn

(USD117.8mn)duetoallegedcorruption.

TeleTalk, which entered the market in 2005, has the lowest

number of subscribers among the 6 mobile operators, with only

0.98mn subscribers. The operator has established its network in

64districts,355Upazilas,andalongmostofthehighways.

http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/01/19/news0029.htm


24/25



Textiles

NGWFforrefixinggarmentworkers'minimumwages

TheFinancialExpress,Sunday,January25,2009The National Garments Workers Federation (NGWF) has

demanded a readjustment of the minimum wage for garments

workers.

According

to

the

NGWF

members,

the

minimum

wage

forapparelworkerswas fixedatBDT1,662 (USD24.26) in2006,

andhasnotbeen revisedsince then.TheNGWFalsostatedthat

theBangladeshLaborLaw2006shouldbeamendedtoprotectthe

interestoftheworkers.TheNGWFurgedthegovernmenttogive

workers of the country's export processing zones trade union

rights as per the convention of the International Labor

Organization.



JapanesefirmseekstobuyUSD600mnRMG

TheDailyStar,Friday,January23,2009Oneof the largest Japanese retail chains, Uniqlo, hasdecided to

purchase readymade garments (RMG) worth more than USD

600mn from Bangladesh in 2009. Currently, Uniqlo purchases

RMG products worth USD 3bn from different countries a year

Bangladeshi products will make up 20% of the companys total

purchasesofUSD3bn in2009.Uniqlocurrentlyhas stores in30

countries, and has a network of over 750 stores in Japan.

Bangladesh exported woven items worth USD 20.801mn and

knitwearitemsworthUSD7.234mntoJapaninFY08,accordingto

theExportPromotionBureau.


Garmentexportstonewdestinationsontherise

TheDaily

Star,

Wednesday,

January

21,

2009

Thevolumeofgarmentexportstonewdestinationsisincreasing,

as manufacturers aim for market diversification. Exporters have

been exporting garment products to Brazil and Mexico, the two

newexportdestinationssincemid2008. ThechairmanofDekko

Groupstatedthattheyhavealreadyshippedtrousers,shirtsand

some other woven garments, worth USD 500,000, to Mexico.

Moreshipmentstothatcountryareinthepipeline.Thegrouphas

recently started exporting to Brazil. They are also looking at

exporting to some other new destinations such as Japan, Russia

andSouthAfrica.

AccordingtoEPBstatistics,Bangladeshexportedwovengarments

worth USD 5.350mn and knitwear items worth USD 7.374mn to

Russia

in

FY

08.

During

the

same

period,

the

country

exportedwoven products worth USD 32.873mn and knitwear products

worth USD 27.662mn to Mexico. In Brazil, another emerging

export destination for Bangladesh, woven items worth USD

3.090mnandknitwearitemsworthUSD13.281mnwereexported

inFY08.Duringthesamefiscalyear,thecountryexportedwoven

productsworthUSD16.977mnandknitwearproductsworthUSD

12.211mntoSouthAfrica.

http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news

details.php?nid=72258

Germanco. investsUSD200m tosetupmega textilefactory in

Bangladesh

TheFinancialExpress,Thursday,January22,2009A top German company is setting up one of the world's largest

textile

factories

in

Gazipur.

Steffen

Mohler,

marketing

and

sales

director of Multiline Limited, said his company is investing USD

200mninastateoftheartknitcompositemanufacturingfacility.

Thecompanyalreadybought80bighasof land inGazipurand ispurchasing another 220 bighas in the same area. It will have 14

factory halls employing more than 10,000 workers, once it goes

intoproductioninearly2010.Thefactorywillhavealltheforward

andbackwardlinkages spinning,weaving,dyingandwashingand

sewinginonecompound alongwithathreestarhoteltohouse

German technicians.This willbe the biggestGerman investment

in Bangladesh and by far the largest the country's textile sector

hasattractedfromaforeigninvestor.Previousinvestmentsinthe

sectorhavenotexceededUSD25mn.



25/25


_______________________________________________________________________________________AT Capital Weekly Update 25

ATCapitalTeamDhaka

ATCapitalTeamNorthAmerica/Asia

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Allrightsreserved.WhenquotingpleaseciteATCapitalResearch.Theaboveinformationdoesnotconstitutetheprovision

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Opinionsexpressedmaydifferfromviewssetout inotherdocuments,includingresearch,publishedbyAsianTigersCapital

Partners Limited. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether

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