At river mouths, predicts annual average export of:

Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds

* DIC in prep.

Original models and scenario applications published in 2 special issues of Global Biogeochemical Cycles (>25 papers)

Dissolved Particulate

Inorganic Organic

N DIN DON PN

P DIP DOP PP

C DIC* DOC POC

Si DSi

Nutrient Sources

NaturalN2-FixationP Weathering

AnthropogenicNon-Point

Fertilizer (by crop type)

N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N

PointSewage

(pop.; treatment level)

Water RunoffPrecip. IntensityLand-useSlopeLithology

Hydrology & Physical Factors

Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use

In-River N, P, SiRemoval

Nutrient Loading toCoastal Waters

Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010Seitzinger et al. 2010

Global NEWS Model

Global NEWS modeling Environment (GNE)(Python code that runs NEWS models)

Diffuse sources

Point sources

Hydrology

“Raw”, HeterogeneousGIS Source files

Diffusesources

Pre-processed, homogenizedGIS Input files

Pointsources

Hydrology

Manual steps,Ad-hoc automation Direct

Global NEWSinputs

Basin-scaleInputs tables

Global NEWSoutputs

Model outputs

Papers,Glory,$$$$

GNE

Complicated Variables other than basin means/sums.e.g. dam retention, FQrem, lithology class

Global NEWSmodel(s)

Comparison of Model Predicted vs Measured River Transport

Mod

eled

DIN

expo

rt(k

g N

bas

in-1

y-1)

Measured DI N export(kg N basin- 1 y- 1)

ChangJ iang

RhineMississippi

Elbe

Yukon

KolymaKamkatcha

Susquehanna

R2=0.79

DIN

Measured DOC yield(kg C km-2 yr-1)

Mo

del

ed D

OC

yie

ld(k

g C

km

-2 y

r-1)

Measured DIN export(kg N basin-1 yr-1)

Mo

del

ed D

IN e

xpo

rt(k

g N

bas

in-1 y

r-1)

Colorado

Dnepr

Susquehanna

Gambia

Ganges

Rhine

R2=0.88

Ganges

Disolved Inorganic N

Particulate N

Nitrogen

•Regional variations in watershed yields for all forms•Different spatial patterns for N and P and forms (due to differences in controlling factors)•Difference in dominant forms between N and P

Phosphorus

0

880

110

190

350

570

15

40

70

kg N/km2/yr

> 1220

0

500

10

20

50

100

1

2

5

kg P/km2/yr

> 2000

Dissolved Organic N

Disolved Inorganic P

Particulate P

Dissolved Organic P

Dominant DIN Sources

(Seitzinger & Harrison, 2008)

Millennium Assessment ScenariosGlobal Regional

Reactive

Proactive

OS

AMTG

GO

Integrated Development Scenarios

Nutrient Exportat River Mouth

Nutrient Sources from Food and

Energy

Population and Climate

Policy Options & Costs

DIN yields (kg N/km2/yr)

2030 scenarios vs mean 2030

80

-10

0

10

40

< -250

-80

-40

kg N/km2/yr

> 250

Run 4,5/22/08

N yield change

See legend on slide 1

Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic

Global Orchestration Techno-garden

2030 Average DIN Yield Average Change 2000-2030

(Seitzinger et al., 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield(kg P / km2 / yr)

NEWS-DIP-2005

NEWS-DIP-HD-2010

(Harrison et al., 2010; GBC)

NEWS-DIN recently applied to CA sub-watersheds

(Goodwin et al., Submitted)

SAC

SJRSAL

COL

MER

FEATUO

STAUSJ

COS

YUBAME

CACBEAORE

CAL

MOK

3

4

5

6

7

3 4 5 6 7

log observed DIN load (kg N/basin/yr)

log

mo

de

led

DIN

loa

d (

kg

N/b

as

in/y

r)

Mayorga et al. 2010 Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software

Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2010 - Special section

Seitzinger et al. overviewBouwman et al. agricultureVan Drecht et al. urban wastewaterFekete et al. hydrologyHarrison et al. increased spatial resolutionYan et al. Changjiang riverVanderStruijk & Kroeze South AmericaYasin et al. AfricaGarnier et al. river nutrient export ratiosBillen et al. watershed auto-/heterotrophy

Acknowlegements and for more details

Access to improved

sanitation?

Connection to sewer system?

Removed Via Wastewater treatment?

Population

Urban

Rural

YesYes

No

Yes

No

100%

Human emission

No improved sanitation

Improved sanitation, but not connected to sewer

Discharged to surface waters

Removed via sewage treatment

No

Human Emissions

Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003), Van Drecht et al., (2010) Global Biogeochem. Cycles

0.5 by 0.5 degree grid cell

Upland crops

Wetland rice

Legumes

Grassland

Inputs-Fertilizer-Animal manure-Biological N fixation-Atmospheric deposition

Nsur=Inputs -Nexp-Nvol

Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003)Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (2005)

Nutrient Balances For Diffuse Source EstimatesOutputs-crop/grass N export (Nexp)Incl. Fodder cropsExcl. residue management

SOIL

Outputs-crop/grass N exportIncl. Fodder cropsExcl. residue management-Ammonia volatilization

Energy crops

River transport of DIN to coast (kg N km-2 y-1)

Seitzinger et al. 2005 Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Integrated development scenarios

Nutrient Exportat River Mouth

Nutrient Sources from Food and

Energy

Policy Options & Costs

Millennium Assessment ScenariosGlobal Regional

Reactive

Proactive

OS

AMTG

GO

NEWS-DIN Performance

Measured DIN yield(kg N km-2 y-1)

Modeled DIN yield(kg N km-2 y-1)

N.S.E.= 0.70

CalibrationValidation

(Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)

1970-2050 Projections of River DIN Export

Global Orchestration Scenario

NEWS-DIN-Predicted DIN Yield (kg N km-2 y-1)

(Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)

Project Co-chairsA.F. Bouwman, PBL, NetherlandsJ. Harrison, Washington State U., USA

 

Other ParticipantsA. Beusen RIVM, The NetherlandsG. Billen UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), FranceD. Breitburg, SERC, USAF. Dentener JRC, Ispra, ItalyR. Diaz, VIMS, USAP. Döll Univ. Kassell, GermanyH. Envoldesen, UNESCO-IOC, DenmarkJ. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), FranceP. Glibert, UMD, USAV. Ittekkot Ctr. Mar. Trop. Ecology, GermanyR. Kudela, UCSC, USAF.T. Mackenzie Univ. Hawaii, USAM. Meybeck UMR Sisyphe, France S. Seitzinger, IGBP, SwedenR. Smith, USGS, USAC. Vörösmarty Univ. New Hampshire, USAW. Yan Chinese Academy Sciences, China N. Caraco, Institute Ecosystem Studies, USAD. Conley, National Envir. Res. Inst., DenmarkJ. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe, FranceC. Kroeze, Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands

Global NEWSGlobal (N)utrient (E)xport from (W)ater(S)heds