36
At the Edge of Disorder Peter Zeihan Iowa Bankers September 24, 2019
At the Edge of Disorder
Peter Zeihan
Iowa Bankers
September 24, 2019
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Imports/Exports as % of GDP, 2017
Imports Exports
The Wars of the Disorder
Wedge Issues
Ca
pita
l S
ho
rta
ge
s:
De
fin
ing
“S
ho
rta
ge
”
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
01
.03
.20
00
01.0
9.2
000
01.0
3.2
001
01.0
9.2
001
01.0
3.2
002
01.0
9.2
002
01.0
3.2
003
01.0
9.2
003
01.0
3.2
004
01.0
9.2
004
01.0
3.2
005
01.0
9.2
005
01.0
3.2
006
01.0
9.2
006
01.0
3.2
007
01.0
9.2
007
01.0
3.2
008
01.0
9.2
008
01.0
3.2
009
01.0
9.2
009
01.0
3.2
010
01.0
9.2
010
01
.03
.20
11
01
.09
.20
11
01.0
3.2
012
01.0
9.2
012
01.0
3.2
013
01.0
9.2
013
01.0
3.2
014
01.0
9.2
014
01.0
3.2
015
01.0
9.2
015
01.0
3.2
016
01.0
9.2
016
01.0
3.2
017
In billions of USD
Ca
pita
l S
ho
rta
ge
s
Jan 2000 = 100
0
500
1000
1500
31
/03
/20
00
30
/09
/20
00
31
/03
/20
01
30
/09
/20
01
31
/03
/20
02
30
/09
/20
02
31
/03
/20
03
30
/09
/20
03
31
/03
/20
04
30
/09
/20
04
31
/03
/20
05
30
/09
/20
05
31
/03
/20
06
30
/09
/20
06
31
/03
/20
07
30
/09
/20
07
31
/03
/20
08
30
/09
/20
08
31
/03
/20
09
30
/09
/20
09
31
/03
/20
10
30
/09
/20
10
31
/03
/20
11
30
/09
/20
11
31
/03
/20
12
30
/09
/20
12
31
/03
/20
13
30
/09
/20
13
31
/03
/20
14
30
/09
/20
14
31
/03
/20
15
30
/09
/20
15
31
/03
/20
16
30/0
9/2
016
31
/03
/20
17
30
/09
/20
17
31
/03
/20
18
United States Euro area Greece Brazil India Turkey China
Outc
om
e:
Na
tura
l G
as R
evo
lutio
n
Omaha
Fargo
Des Moines
Ou
tcom
e:
Ch
em
ica
ls O
ve
rha
ul
@PeterZeihan www.Zeihan.com
BusinessHispanicGayAfrican-American
Evangelical
Populist
Socialist
Single Women
Catholic
SwingDemocrat Republican
Pro-Life
Pro-Choice
GreensUnion
Under 30s
Nat Security
Fiscal
