ATM-552: CLIMATE CHANGE

Monday and Wednesday 2:45-4:05pm, ES B13

ATM 552: Today's topics

Introduction to the topic of climate change

Syllabus

Research projects

Homework / Grades

Knowledge assessment

IPCC, AR4, WG1, 2007

Climate Impacts and Adaptation

Source: IPCC AR5 WG2, 2014

Some fundamental questions we will try to answer in this class:

1. How can we be certain that we are changing our climate?

2. How will climate change in the future?

3. How will climate change affect us?

4. What should we do about it?

Spatiotemporal aspects, changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation?

Reduce emissions (mitigation)? study impacts? adapt?

Environmental impacts? SLR?, extremes (droughts, floods, heatwaves), changes in the cryosphere, biosphere, etc?

Anthropogenic vs. natural climate change?

INSTRUCTOR

Oliver ELISON TIMM (oelisontimm@albany.edu) (442-3584)

Office: ES 316A

Office Hours: Tue 10:00-11:00am, Wed 1:15-2:15pm(and by appointment*)

Some logistics

* Or take your chance and stop by for short questions [‘open-door’-policy]

All course material, including class lectures and papers will be made available in electronic form (email, cloud-storage, web-pages) or via links to original sources.

Some logistics

The student assessment

Respond to the following 10 statements by indicating whether you agree or not.

Explain the reasons for your answer.

If you are not sure, rather than guessing, write ‘don’t know’.

Note that this is not a quiz.

There is no grade and you can take this survey anonymously.

It is simply intended to find out how much you as a group already know about the topic of climate change.

ATM 552: Evaluation Policies

ASSESSMENT & POLICIES

•Research Proposal (20 percent)

•Mid-term Exam (20 percent)

•Oral presentation in class (20 percent)

•Research or review paper (40 percent)

Reading assignments

The reading assignments are an integral part of the learning process in this course.

Homework assignments typically will include reading 3-4 papers per week on a particular topic related to Climate Change.

Papers will be discussed at the beginning of each class, with students leading the discussion (summarizing main results, methods and potential questions that may arise) – bring papers with you to class!

Papers will be made available (in electronic form) a week before the in-class discussion – hard copies are available upon request.

ATM-552: Reading assignments

ATM-552: Reading assignments

Wednesday, 08/27/14:

-Oreskes, Science, 2004-Lean & Rind, Geophys. Res.Lett., 2008-England et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014

We will discuss the papers at the beginning of the next class:

Wednesdays: Discussion groups

Mondays: Short PPT presentations or Discussion groups

ATM-552: Your Research/Review Paper

You will choose a research topic related to Climate Change. (During the first classes you will have time to find a research project you are interested in.)

Get a pre-approval for your research idea from your instructor

You will start with a scientific proposition (hypothesis) and presentthe key ideas in class and get feedback from your peer students

You write a full written research proposal (4 pages single spaced12-pt font size, with no more than 3 figures, plus additional reference list)

The proposal will be reviewed by one of your peer students and the instructor

ATM-552: Your Research/Review Paper

Research phase

6-8 weeks of research include data collection and analysis, preparation of summary tables and figures, and drafting of the sections ‘introduction’,‘data’, ‘methods’, and ‘results’.

To the end of the research phase, you will give a 15-minute presentation(and get feedback from your peer students)

You will finalize the research paper (‘abstract’, ‘summary’/’conclusion’)and submit it to a ‘formal’ review process (by one of your peer students, and optionally you can assign me for review)

You will revise your paper and submit the final version for grading

Note: we will adopt the AMS style guidelines.http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/authors/journal-and-bams-authors/journal-and-bams-authors-guide/formatting/

Topics chosen for Research Project in previous classes

• Your own previous / current research related to climate change (thesis, field work)

• Climate Change and solar variability

• Climate Change and energy (fossil fuels, renewable energy sources)

• Climate Change and glaciers

• The Kyoto Protocol (what, why, how?)

• The U.S. government policy on Climate Change: What is it?

• Climate Change and rising sea level

• Climate Change and extreme events (e.g. floods, droughts, heat waves)

• Climate Change and natural hazards

• Climate Change and agriculture

• Climate Change and human health

• Climate Change and biodiversity

• Climate Change in the Arctic / Tropics / New York State / Albany (or any other region)

• The physics of the greenhouse effect

• The global carbon cycle

• Adaptation and/or mitigation of Climate Change

• Future Climate Change scenarios

Topics chosen for Research Project in previous classes

The Research Project…something related to Climate Change

All homework assignments, project proposals, reports, papers, etc. have specific due dates.

ATM 552: Important Dates

ATM 552: Important Dates

1515

Sep 15-17: Presenting research proposal idea in class

Sep 15-17: Presenting research proposal idea in class

1717

11

Oct 1: Proposal due!Oct 1: Proposal due!88

Oct 8: Feedback to proposal dueOct 8: Feedback to proposal due

12121010

1717 1919

Nov 10-17: Research presentations in classNov 10-17: Research presentations in class

Nov 19: Research paper due for review!Nov 19: Research paper due for review!

Nov 24: Peer review dueNov 24: Peer review due

2424

88Dec 8: Research paper due for grading!Dec 8: Research paper due for grading!

Oct 15: Mid-Term ExamOct 15: Mid-Term Exam

1515

Sep 15/17 Proposal outline presentation in classOct 1 Written Proposal dueOct 8 Student’s feedback dueOct 15 Mid-Term ExamNov 10-17 Research result presentations in classNov 19 Research paper due for peer reviewNov 24 Peer-review due Dec 8 Final revised research paper due

IMPORTANT WEB SITES

These are sites which provide important information on topics covered in this class. Also many of the illustrations used in class are available at these sites.

They can also provide you with additional material not covered in this class or give a different perspective from the one taught in class.

Finally these sites can be an important resource of information for your individual presentations in the 2nd half of the semester.

RECOMMENDED SUPPLEMENT

IPCC (2013) “Climate Change 2013 – Summary for Policymakers”

Available from

http://www.climatechange2013.org/

Contains many figures and illustrations used in this class

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science BasisWGI contribution to IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers (SPM)

Written by scientists but approved‘sentence by sentence’ by 300

government representatives from 113 nations

2214 pages

859 authors and editors from

39 nations

54,677 comments received

9200 cited papers

2 million GB of model data

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

3000 scientists from more than 150 nations

First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990

Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1995Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1995

Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001

Fourth Assessment report (AR4), 2007Fourth Assessment report (AR4), 2007

Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), 2013/14Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), 2013/14

“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”

Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

Climate Change 2001 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCCClimate Change 2001 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC

“The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”

Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990)Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990)

“The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.”Climate Change 2007– The Assessment Report 4 of the IPCCClimate Change 2007– The Assessment Report 4 of the IPCC

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”Climate Change 2013 – The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCCClimate Change 2013 – The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change

http://www.realclimate.org/

How can we be certain that we are changing our climate?