+ All Categories
Home > Economy & Finance > atmos enerrgy aga2008

atmos enerrgy aga2008

Date post: 10-Jun-2015
Category:
Upload: finance35
View: 287 times
Download: 2 times
Share this document with a friend
Popular Tags:
21
AGA Financial Forum Robert W. Best Chairman, President & CEO May 6, 2008 2 Forward Looking Statements The matters discussed or incorporated by reference in this presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation are forward-looking statements made in good faith by the company and are intended to qualify for the safe harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. When used in this presentation or in any of our other documents or oral presentations, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “intend,” “objective,” “plan,” “projection,” “seek,” “strategy” or similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this presentation, including the risks relating to regulatory trends and decisions, our ability to continue to access the capital markets, and the other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These factors include the risks and uncertainties discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2007 and in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three and six months ended March 31, 2008. Although we believe these forward-looking statements to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that they will approximate actual experience or that the expectations derived from them will be realized. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Further, we will only update earnings guidance through our quarterly and annual earnings releases. All estimated financial metrics for fiscal year 2008 and beyond that appear in this presentation are current as of the date noted on each relevant slide.
Transcript
Page 1: atmos enerrgy aga2008

AGA Financial Forum

Robert W. BestChairman, President & CEO

May 6, 2008

2

Forward Looking Statements

The matters discussed or incorporated by reference in this presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation are forward-looking statements made in good faith by the company and are intended to qualify for the safe harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. When used in this presentation or in any of our other documents or oral presentations, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “intend,” “objective,” “plan,”“projection,” “seek,” “strategy” or similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this presentation, including the risks relating to regulatory trends and decisions, our ability to continue to access the capital markets, and the other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These factors include the risks and uncertainties discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2007 and in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three and six months ended March 31, 2008. Although we believe these forward-looking statements to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that they will approximate actual experience or that the expectations derived from them will be realized. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Further, we will only update earnings guidance through our quarterly and annual earnings releases. All estimated financial metrics for fiscal year 2008 and beyond that appear in this presentation are current as of the date noted on each relevant slide.

Page 2: atmos enerrgy aga2008

3

Overview

Company Profile

The nation’s largest pure-gas distribution companySolid financial foundationTrack record of creating shareholder value• Consistent earnings growth• 24 consecutive years of increasing dividends

Focused strategy over time• Grow through prudent acquisitions• Maximize core regulated earnings capability• Complement core regulated businesses through select

nonregulated operations

4

OverviewExpanding Footprint Promotes Annual EPS Growth of 4 - 6%, on average Regulated gas distribution operates in 12 states (gold)Nonregulated operates primarily in the Midwest & Southeast (gray)

Page 3: atmos enerrgy aga2008

5

1.16

0.42

1.38

0.34

0.98

0.84

1.23

0.69

1.40-1.46

0.55-0.59

$0.00

$0.30

$0.60

$0.90

$1.20

$1.50

$1.80

$2.10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

NonregulatedOperationsRegulatedOperations

Diluted Earnings Per Share Contribution Shows Steady Growth

Overview

$1.82$1.72

$1.92 $1.95-$2.05

$1.58

CAGR 6.1%

6

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

'84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08

Note: Amounts are adjusted for mergers and acquisitions. For fiscal 2008, $1.30 is the indicated annual dividend.

$1.30E

OverviewAnnual Dividend Remains Steady

Page 4: atmos enerrgy aga2008

7

Overview

16.4%

14.5%

15.5%

12.7%13.1%

14.4%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5 Yr Avg

2.552.75

3.05

2.59 2.552.75

3.00

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

7.4%

6.9%

6.4%6.0%

5.6%5.9%

6.1% 6.1%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

53.7%

60.9%59.3%

43.3%

53.6%

40

45

50

55

60

65

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

(1) ROIC - Return on invested capital is calculated using the following GAAP financial measures: Income before interest expense and income taxes plus common stock dividends paid, divided by the average of the year’s beginning and ending long-term debt plus common equity. This measure is used to more precisely evaluate operational performance and management effectiveness.

(2) The times interest earned ratio measures the ability to satisfy annual interest costs.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Times Interest Earned Ratios

Weighted Average Cost of Debt Debt Capitalization Ratio

Financial Metrics Continue to Improve1 2

8

Investment Grade Credit Ratings Allow Financial Flexibility

Moody’s RatingSenior Unsecured Debt: Baa3Commercial Paper: P-3Outlook: stable

Standard & Poor’sSenior Unsecured Debt: BBBCommercial Paper: A-2Outlook: positive

FitchSenior Unsecured Debt: BBB+Commercial Paper: F-2Outlook: stable

Overview

Page 5: atmos enerrgy aga2008

9

Atmos Energy Holdings, Inc.(Nonregulated Operations)

Atmos Energy Holdings, Inc.(Nonregulated Operations)

Atmos Energy Marketing• Marketing• Asset Optimization

Atmos Energy Marketing• Marketing• Asset Optimization

Atmos Pipeline, Storageand Other

• Non-Texas Assets (Storage & Pipeline)• Midstream• Other

Atmos Pipeline, Storageand Other

• Non-Texas Assets (Storage & Pipeline)• Midstream• Other

Kentucky/Mid-StatesKentucky/Mid-States

Atmos Energy Corporation(Regulated Operations)

Gas Distribution DivisionsTransmission & Storage

Atmos Energy Corporation(Regulated Operations)

Gas Distribution DivisionsTransmission & Storage

West TexasWest Texas

Colorado-KansasColorado-Kansas

LouisianaLouisiana

Mid-Tex Mid-Tex

MississippiMississippi

Atmos Pipeline -TexasAtmos Pipeline -Texas

Regulated Operations

10

Profit Drivers in the Distribution Business

Customer and meter growth

Growing rate base

Managing costs

Executing our rate strategy

Regulated Gas Distribution Operates in 12 States (gold)

Regulated Natural Gas Distribution

Page 6: atmos enerrgy aga2008

11

Successfully Executing on the Rate Strategy

Regulated Natural Gas Distribution

Partial means applicable within certain jurisdictions within the category.Excludes Colorado, Iowa and Illinois for a total of 137,657 customers.Includes Missouri, Kansas and Georgia for a total of 258,102 customers.Includes Missouri for a total of 59,672 customers.Includes Amarillo for a total of 69,772 customers.Includes Kansas and Virginia for a total of 151,545 customers.Includes Mid-Tex Division customers residing in cities covered by settlement agreements.

Number of Customers

Percentage of Total

Purchased Gas Cost Adjustments WNA

GRIP/ Accelerated Capital Recovery

Decoupling/ Rate Stabilization

Gas Cost Bad Debt Recovery

Texas 1,800,000 57% Partial

Louisiana 350,000 11%

Mississippi 270,000 8%Remaining Jurisdictions 770,000 24% PartialPartialPartial 2 3

4, 6

51

1

2

3

4

5

6

6Partial

12

Mid-Tex – pending rate case• Settlement agreement reached with all major parties, except City of Dallas• Includes an initial increase of $10 million on a systemwide basis, effective

April 1, 2008• Rate review mechanism (RRM) effective for a three-year trial period – initial

filing of $33.5 million made on April 14, 2008, with implementation Oct. 1st

• Proposal for decision on City of Dallas appeal is expected May 16th with final decision scheduled for June 27th

Louisiana – pending annual rate stabilization filings• Filed for approximately $2.6 million in March 2008 for LGS jurisdiction• Approved $2.1 million increase for Trans La jurisdiction, effective April 1, 2008

Kansas – pending rate case• Filed for $5 million in September 2007• Tentative $2.1 million settlement with staff, final order expected May 2008

Georgia – pending rate case• Filed for over $6 million in March 2008, decision expected September 2008• Forward-looking filing with test year ending March 30, 2009

Atmos Pipeline - Texas – 2007 GRIP filing for revenue increase of approximately $7.0 million implemented on April 15th

Recent Regulatory Activity Aids Margin Growth

Regulated Operations

Page 7: atmos enerrgy aga2008

13

15.8

2.8

10.5

5.7

4.51.8

3.3

34.3

1.4

11.6

25.6

2.9

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-2012E

Annual Mechanism GRIP General Rate Case Aggregate

($ M

illio

ns)

Approved Annual Rate Increases in the Regulated Operations

$6.3

$50 - $60

$39.0

Regulated Operations

$40.1

$18.6$16.2

14

Favorably positioned; spans Texas gas supply basins and growing consumer market

Pipeline Operations• Connects to major market hubs-

Waha, Katy and Carthage• 6,300 miles of intrastate pipeline• Estimated transportation volume of

740 Bcf in fiscal 2008• Current average volume of

approximately 2.0 Bcf/d• Demonstrated peak day deliveries

of 3.5 Bcf/d

Five Storage Facilities• One salt cavern, four reservoirs• 39 Bcf working gas capacity• 1.2 Bcf/d maximum withdrawal• 270 MMcf/d maximum injection

West Texas Division

Mid-Tex Division

Atmos Pipeline-TexasAtmos Energy Headquarters

Strategically Positioned Atmos Pipeline –Texas

Regulated Transmission and Storage

Page 8: atmos enerrgy aga2008

15

Growth Drivers Growth Drivers Pursue capacity and compression growth opportunities

Increased through-system volumes primarily from producers in Barnett Shale

Margin expansion through ancillary services such as parking and lending, balancing, blending, and compression

Gas price volatility increasing basis differentials between Texas hubs

Regulated Transmission and StorageAtmos Pipeline – Texas Growth Drivers

Tran

spor

tatio

n Vo

lum

es(B

cf)

78

60

77

64

85

78

94-96

78-81

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2005 2006 2007 2008E

Tariff Based Market Based

Mar

gin

Com

posi

tion

($m

illio

ns)

181

374

170

411

194

505

1188-195

547-550

0

150

300

450

600

750

2005 2006 2007 2008E

Mid-Tex Division Third Party

555 581

699735-745

138 141163

172-177

16

Regulated Transmission and Storage

Barnett Shale

Cotton Valley

Bossier

Sands

Permian

Location of gassupply basins

Page 9: atmos enerrgy aga2008

17

Atmos Energy Holdings, Inc.(Nonregulated Operations)

Atmos Energy Holdings, Inc.(Nonregulated Operations)

Atmos Energy Marketing• Marketing• Asset Optimization

Atmos Energy Marketing• Marketing• Asset Optimization

Atmos Pipeline, Storage and Other

• Non-Texas Assets (Storage & Pipeline)• Midstream• Other

Atmos Pipeline, Storage and Other

• Non-Texas Assets (Storage & Pipeline)• Midstream• Other

Nonregulated Operations

Kentucky/Mid-StatesKentucky/Mid-States

Atmos Energy Corporation(Regulated Operations)

Gas Distribution DivisionsTransmission & Storage

Atmos Energy Corporation(Regulated Operations)

Gas Distribution DivisionsTransmission & Storage

West TexasWest Texas

Colorado-KansasColorado-Kansas

LouisianaLouisiana

Mid-TexMid-Tex

MississippiMississippi

Atmos Pipeline -TexasAtmos Pipeline -Texas

Organization Structure

18

Atmos Energy Marketing Customers (gray states)

About 1,100 customers

Target market is Atmos Energy’s natural gas distribution footprint

Focus on areas where we manage, lease or own storage and transportation assets

Regional offices allow for more direct customer access

Nonregulated Operations

Page 10: atmos enerrgy aga2008

19

Core Business Core Business Business Opportunities

Business Delivered Gas Asset Optimization Mid-Stream Development

ServicesAggregate & Purchase Gas Supply, Transport, Storage/Load Balancing, Risk Management and other bundled services

Extract (optimize) the value of owned, leased or managed storage and transportation assets as markets provide opportunities via price volatility

Gather, process and store producer volumes for downstream delivery to markets.

Strategy Find cost effective sources of gas and deliver to customers reliably and at a competitive price.

Provide creative solutionsand services to meetcustomers gas requirements

Capture additional value of storage and transportationassets thru arbitrage andsegmenting strategies, within risk limits.

Expand leased storage and transportation capacity thru new customer relationships

Develop or acquire gathering, processing or storage assets that will provide steady, predictable income and support marketing opportunities.

Reduce gas costs throughvalue-added services providedto producers.

MarginsMore predictable margins from primarily 90 day to 365 day contracts

Driven by customer demand for gas volumes, services and competition.

Variable margins, with upside.Driven by gas price volatility creating arbitrage potential, physical storage capabilities, costs and available storageand transport capacity.

Stable, fee-based income.Driven by gathering, processing, and storage services.

Nonregulated OperationsBusiness Mix

20

Delivered Gas

(Bundled gas deliveries &peaking sales)

Delivered Gas

(Bundled gas deliveries &peaking sales)

Asset Optimization

(Storage & transportationmanagement)

Asset Optimization

(Storage & transportationmanagement)

Total AEMMarginsTotal AEMMargins

Impacted by customer volume demand Sales prices are:

• Cost plus profit margin• Cost plus demand charges

Margins: More predictable

Impacted by gas price spread values in the market (arbitrage opportunity) & MTM accounting treatmentPhysical storage capabilitiesAvailable storage and transport capacity

• 12.9 Bcf proprietary contracted capacity• 39.1 Bcf customer-owned / AEM-managed

storageMargins: More variable

Total margins reflect:Stability from delivered gas margins Upside from optimizing our storageand transportation assets to capture arbitrage value

2008E

=

Atmos Energy Marketing – Margin Composition

60% - 70%

30% - 40%

Stable with potential upside

Nonregulated Operations

Page 11: atmos enerrgy aga2008

21

Key Growth DriversKey Growth Drivers

Retain existing customersSaturate existing markets Expand into targeted growth markets (Texas, Alabama, etc.)Expand asset management businessUnit margin expansion from premium value-added services provided to customersAccess to storage assetsGas price volatility

Con

solid

ated

Sal

es V

olum

es

BC

F 223 238284

371 415-450

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

0.230.25

0.31

0.15 0.14

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

Con

solid

ated

Del

iver

ed G

as

Uni

t Mar

gins

(cen

ts p

er M

cf)

Delivered Gas Volumes Continue Growth Trend

Nonregulated Operations

22

60.0

28.0

(26.0)

87.2

26.2

17.2

57.1

28.8

18.4

60.0-65.0

30.0-35.0

(30.0)

(10.0)

10.0

30.0

50.0

70.0

90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

2005 2006 2007 2008E

Delivered Gas Asset Optimization Unrealized Margins

($ m

illio

ns)

Nonregulated Operations

62.0

130.6

104.390.0-100.0

Delivered Gas Margins have remained fairly constant at about $60 million, with the exception of Fiscal 2006 due to effects of Hurricane Katrina

Asset Optimization Margins trending between $25 million - $30 million annually

Fiscal 2008 marketing segment margins are expected to be between $90 million and $100 million, excluding any mark-to-market impact

Mark-to-market accounting impact is recognized in Unrealized Margins and an example of the accounting can be found in the appendix to this presentation.

Delivered Gas and Asset Optimization Margins Remain SteadyNonregulated Atmos Energy Marketing

Page 12: atmos enerrgy aga2008

23

Currently, over 15 potential projects under review

Includes gathering, light processing, pipeline and storage projects

Capital investment ranges between $3 million to $300 million perproject, some are multi-year projects

Fiscal 2008 budget includes approximately $33 million for development of these identified projects

Park City Natural Gas Gathering System in Western Kentucky

In January 2008, filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to construct and operate a salt-cavern gas storage project in Louisiana

Business Development Strategy

Nonregulated Operations

24

23 mile low-pressure gas gathering system northeast of Bowling Green, KY with delivery into TGT’s Slaughter/Bowling Green lateral

Initially, 47 of 60 wells connected via polyethylene pipe with expected capacity of over 10,000 Mcf/d

The gas contains about 16% nitrogen and will be treated by a facility, jointly owned by Atmos and HNNG

Total cost of about $10 million; $3 million of capital spent in fiscal 2007 and about $7 million expected in fiscal 2008

Park City Gathering System in Kentucky

Nonregulated Operations

Page 13: atmos enerrgy aga2008

25

Initial project includes development of three 5 Bcf caverns with six-turn injection and withdrawal capabilities

Storage facility adjacent to large interstate pipelines

Pending FERC approval, first cavern projected to be operational in 2011; the other two caverns operational by 2012 and 2014

Depending on market demand, four additional storage caverns could potentially be developed

Non-binding open season expected Q3 Fiscal 2008

Ft. Necessity Gas Storage Project in Louisiana

Nonregulated Operations

Salt Storage ProjectFranklin Parish, LA

Legend of Nearby Pipelines

Regency ANR

LIG CGT

TGT TGP

TLGFort Necessity

Salt Dome

26

Atmos Energy continues to anticipate earnings to be in the range of $1.95 - $2.05 per fully diluted share for the 2008 fiscal year

Assumptions include:• Contribution from natural gas marketing segment reflecting less

volatility in gas prices o Total expected gross margin contribution from the marketing segment in

the range of $90 million to $100 million, excluding any material mark-to-market impact

• Continued successful execution of rate strategy and collection efforts• Bad debt expense of no more than $15 million• Average annual short-term interest rate @ 6.5%• No material acquisitions

Consolidated Earnings Guidance – Fiscal 2008E

Note: Changes in these events or other circumstances that the company cannot currently anticipate could materially impact earnings, and could result in earnings for fiscal 2008 significantly above or below this outlook.

Financial Review

Page 14: atmos enerrgy aga2008

27

Natural Gas DistributionRegulated Trans & Storage Natural Gas MarketingPipeline, Storage & OtherTotalAvg. Diluted SharesEarnings Per Share

2006$ 53

275810

14881.4

$ 1.82

($ millions, except EPS)

$ 86 - 90 40 - 4238 - 40 12 - 13

176 - 18590.1

$1.95 - $2.05

2008E

Projected Net Income by Segment

2007$ 73

344615

16887.7

$ 1.92

2005$ 81

2823

413679.0

$ 1.72

Financial Review

28

Cash flows from operationsMaintenance/Non-growth capital Dividends

Available Cash

2005 2007

$ 387(243)(99)

$ 45

$ 547 (287)(112)

$ 148

2006

$ 311(287)(102)

$ (78)

Ample Cash Flow Generated($ millions)

2008E

$ 540 - 560 (325-335)

(117)

$ 78 - 88

Financial Review

Page 15: atmos enerrgy aga2008

29

99.1

228.3

82-84

265- 270

$0$50

$100$150$200$250$300$350$400

2007 2008E

RegulatedGas Distribution

RegulatedTransmission & Storage

$347-$354

Capital Expenditures

$327.4

2.1

57.2

10-12

58-61

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

2007 2008E

$68-73

4.61.1

33-34

2-4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

2007 2008E

Nonregulated

$59.3

$5.7

Financial Review

Consolidated fiscal 2008 CAPEX projection is $450-$465 million

($ millions)

$35-38

Growth Capital

Maintenance Capital

30

Financial Review

15.2x

14.5x

13.5x

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

S&P 500 Peer GroupAvg.

Compelling Valuation and Total Return Proposition

5.1

3.9

4.4

4.7 12.0

1.9

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

Peer GroupAvg.

S&P 500

5 year growth rate dividend yield

Forward P/E Estimates 5 Year Expected Total Return

Companies in the peer group include AGL Resources, Laclede, New Jersey Resources, Nisource, Northwest Natural Gas, Oneok, Piedmont Natural Gas, Southwest Gas and WGL Holdings.

Source: Bloomberg @ 4/25/08Peer group averages exclude Atmos

8.9% 9.1%

13.9%

Atmos EnergyAtmos

Energy

Page 16: atmos enerrgy aga2008

31

Summary

Company Profile

The nation’s largest pure-gas distribution companySolid financial foundationTrack record of creating shareholder value• Consistent earnings growth• 24 consecutive years of increasing dividends

Focused strategy over time• Grow through prudent acquisitions• Maximize core regulated earnings capability• Complement core regulated businesses through select

nonregulated operations

32

SlideAppendix

Page 17: atmos enerrgy aga2008

33

($ in in millions))

76.3

13.311.0

5.9

85.6

15.25.3

5.4

$0.0$20.0$40.0$60.0$80.0

$100.0$120.0$140.0

2Q 2007 2Q 2008

Natural gas distribution Regulated transmission & storageNatural gas marketing Pipeline, storage & other

$111.5

Consolidated Financial Results – Fiscal 2Q

$106.55%

Key DriversKey DriversRate increase adjustments, primarily in TexasDecrease in nonregulated natural gas marketing margins, primarily due to decrease in storage and trading activitiesIncrease in O&M expenses, primarily due to higher administrative costs

Net Income by Segment

34

($ in in millions))

108.2

22.946.0

10.7

125.8

25.125.9

8.5

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

YTD 2007 YTD 2008

Natural gas distribution Regulated transmission & storageNatural gas marketing Pipeline, storage & other

$185.3

Consolidated Financial Results – Fiscal YTD

$187.8 (1)%

Key DriversKey DriversDecrease in nonregulated natural gas marketing margins, primarily due to decrease in storage and trading activitiesRate increase adjustments, primarily in TexasIncrease in O&M expenses primarily due to higher employee and administrative costs

Net Income by Segment

Page 18: atmos enerrgy aga2008

35

45.3

98.4

43.8

130.2

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

$200

YTD 2007 YTD 2008

RegulatedGas Distribution

RegulatedTransmission & Storage

Total Fiscal 2008 YTD Expenditures: $198.7 millionTotal Maintenance Capital: $149.8 millionTotal Growth Capital: $ 48.9 million

$174.0

Consolidated Financial Results – Fiscal YTD

$143.7

26.4

2.6

19.5

$0

$10

$20

$30

YTD 2007 YTD 2008

$22.1

2.2

0.5

2.5

0.1

$0

$2

$4

YTD 2007 YTD 2008

Nonregulated

$26.4

$2.7 $2.6

Growth Capital

Maintenance Capital

Capital Expenditures

36

Consolidated Financial Results – Fiscal 2Q

2008 2007 Change

Delivered gas $26,195 $14,252 $11,943

Asset optimization 27,737 77,724 (49,987)

Unrealized margin (37,600) (68,923) 31,323

GROSS PROFIT $16,332 $23,053 ($6,721)

Net physical position (Bcf) 20.7 19.6 1.1

Three Months Ended March 31

(In thousands, except physical position)

Natural Gas Marketing Segment

Page 19: atmos enerrgy aga2008

37

Consolidated Financial Results – Fiscal YTD

2008 2007 Change

Delivered gas $44,368 $34,321 $10,047

Asset optimization 27,212 71,934 (44,722)

Unrealized margin (9,285) (20,068) 10,783

GROSS PROFIT $62,295 $86,187 ($23,892)

Net physical position (Bcf) 20.7 19.6 1.1

Six Months Ended March 31

(In thousands, except physical position)

Natural Gas Marketing Segment

38

Nonregulated OperationsAtmos Energy Marketing

We commercially manage our storage assets by capturing arbitrage value through optimization strategies that create embedded (forward) value in the portfolio. We financially report the transactions for external reporting purposes in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).

GAAP Reported Value is the period to period net change in fair value of the portfolio reported in the income statement that results from the process of marking to market the physical storage volumes and corresponding financial instruments in an interim period.

Economic Value is the period to period forward margin of our storage portfolio that results from the process of calculating our weighted average cost of inventory (WACOG), and our weighted average sales price of our forward financials (WASP), then multiplying the difference times inventory volumes. This margin will be realized in cash when the hedged transaction is executed or when financials are settled and then reset to stay hedged against physical volumes.

• Economic Value represents the “forward” economic margin of the transactions, while GAAP reported results reflect that portion of our “forward” margin that has been recorded in the income statement.

• Volatility in earnings includes the impact of the accounting treatment of our storage portfolio in accordance with GAAP and is reflective of relatively high price volatility of the prompt month, and the relatively low volatility of the offsetting forward months.

Economic Value vs. GAAP Reported Results

Page 20: atmos enerrgy aga2008

39

Economic Value vs. GAAP Reported Results

Nonregulated OperationsAtmos Energy Marketing

Reported GAAPValue

- Physical and FinancialPositions

$(0.6) MM

Reported GAAPValue

- Physical and FinancialPositions

$(0.6) MM

Economic Value*(Commercial Value)

- Physical and FinancialPositions

$10.8 MM

Market Spread

Embedded margindifference

$11.4 MM*Realizing Economic Value is dependent on ability toexecute – deliver physical gas & close financial hedges

Supporting data appears onthe following slide

At March 31, 2008

40

Physical Period Volume Total Total TotalEnding (Bcf) WASP WACOG EV ($ in millions) ($ per mcf) ($ in millions) ($ per mcf) ($ in millions)

12/31/2006 21.0 10.6691 7.7802 2.8889 60.6 1.5636 32.8 1.3253 27.83/31/2007 19.6 8.2196 7.6701 0.5495 10.8 (1.2347) (24.2) 1.7842 35.0

2007 Variance (1.4) (2.4495)$ (0.1101)$ (2.3394)$ (49.8)$ (2.7983) (57.0)$ 0.4589$ 7.2$

12/31/2007 17.7 9.8199 7.3266 2.4933 44.2 1.8561 32.9 0.6372 11.33/31/2008 20.7 8.6763 8.1555 0.5208 10.8 (0.0296) (0.6) 0.5504 11.4

2008 Variance 3.0 (1.1436)$ 0.8289$ (1.9725)$ (33.4)$ (1.8857) (33.5)$ (0.0868)$ 0.1$

($ per mcf)Economic Value (EV) Market SpreadGAAP Reported Value - MTM

WASP: Weighted average sales price for gas held in storageWACOG: Weighted average cost of AEM’s gas in storageEV: “Economic Value” which equals gas sales price (WASP) minus cost of gas (WACOG) on a per unit basis

Nonregulated OperationsAtmos Energy MarketingEconomic Value vs. GAAP Reported ResultsThree Months Ended

Page 21: atmos enerrgy aga2008

41

Physical Period Volume Total Total TotalEnding (Bcf) WASP WACOG EV ($ in millions) ($ per mcf) ($ in millions) ($ per mcf) ($ in millions)

9/30/2006 14.5 11.9716 7.8329 4.1387 60.0 (1.1076) (16.0) 5.2463 76.03/31/2007 19.6 8.2196 7.6701 0.5495 10.8 (1.2347) (24.2) 1.7842 35.0

2007 Variance 5.1 (3.7520)$ (0.1628)$ (3.5892)$ (49.2)$ (0.1271) (8.2)$ (3.4621)$ (41.0)$

9/30/2007 12.3 11.1547 7.8297 3.3250 40.8 0.8819 10.8 2.4431 30.03/31/2008 20.7 8.6763 8.1555 0.5208 10.8 (0.0296) (0.6) 0.5504 11.4

2008 Variance 8.4 (2.4784)$ 0.3258$ (2.8042)$ (30.0)$ (0.9115) (11.4)$ (1.8927)$ (18.6)$

($ per mcf)Economic Value (EV) Market SpreadGAAP Reported Value - MTM

WASP: Weighted average sales price for gas held in storageWACOG: Weighted average cost of AEM’s gas in storageEV: “Economic Value” which equals gas sales price (WASP) minus cost of gas (WACOG) on a per unit basis

Nonregulated OperationsAtmos Energy MarketingEconomic Value vs. GAAP Reported ResultsSix Months Ended


Recommended