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ATPSM Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation
Model
Lucian Cernat
International Trade Division
United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
General Overview: What is ATPSM?
• Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model• Computable international trade model• Analyse agricultural trade policy issues• Quantify economic effects
- unilateral changes- multilateral changes
• Comprehensive database
ATPSM: Main theoretical features
• Multi-country partial equilibrium model• System of equations for supply, demand, trade flows• Static model, no stochastic shocks or uncertainty• No time dimension, but some assumptions on demand
(short-term) and supply response (long-term)• No cross-sectoral effects from agriculture to other
economic sectors• Considers interrelationships between different
commodities (e.g. when competing for land)
ATPSM: Main theoretical features (2)
• Three agents: producers, consumers, government• Prices in the model
– No account of domestic trade margins– Domestic: producer and wholesale prices– World price
• Specific and mixed tariffs, export subsidies, etc. are expressed as AVEs
• Quota rents: assumed to be captured by exporters• Data limitations:
– no policy data for some developing countries– Modelled as price takers– Some applied and bound tariffs are missing
TRQs and quota rents
Q
p
q
pw
Pw+ ti
Pw+ to
TRi
TRo
MMLDC
Features of ATPSM: Trade Policies Specified
• Global import quota• Bound in-quota tariff rates• Bound out-of-quota tariff rates• Distribution of quota rents• Applied tariff rates• Export subsidies• Domestic support• Two-way trade
Two tier tariff structure
Coverage of ATPSM
• 175 countries• EU-15 one region• Detailed trade policy data for
141 countries• 35 agricultural commodities
ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (1)
• Livestock
• Bovine meat
• Sheepmeat
• Pigmeat
• Poultry
• Milk, fresh
• Milk, conc.
• Butter
• Cheese
• Wheat
• Maize • Sorghum • Barley• Rice• Sugar, raw• Sugar, refined• Oilseeds, temp.• Oilseeds, trop.• Vegetable oils• Pulses
• Roots, tubers
ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (2)
• Tomatoes
• Non-tropical fruits
• Citrus fruits
• Bananas
• Other tropical fruits
• Coffee green
• Coffee processed
• Cocoa beans
• Cocoa, processed
• Tea
• Tobacco leaves
• Tobacco, processed
• Cotton linters
• Hides & Skines
Trade Policy Questions
• Impact of reductions in bound out-of-quota tariff rates in all developed countries on- trade flows- export revenues - tariff revenues
• Impact of reductions in export subsidies on- world market prices - net food importers
• Impact of possible WTO agreements on developing countries
Change in producer surplus Cancun and Harbinson
-25,000-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,000
05,000
10,00015,00020,000
$m
CancunHarbinson
Change in consumer surplus Cancun and Harbinson
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
$m
CancunHarbinson
Change in welfare: Cancun and Harbinson
7,220
11,983
163
1,040-141 -199
7,242
12,824
-129-210
-2,0000
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,000
$m
Cancun Harbinson
Preference Erosion:Quota rents before and after liberalization
in selected SSA countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$m
Maurit
ius
Zimbabwe
Botsw
ana
Namib
ia
Ivor
y Coa
st
South A
frica
Camer
oon
Swazila
nd
Malawi
Congo
Tanza
nia
InitialFinal
Developing countries' benefits
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4
Level of ambition in developing countries
Producer Surplus
Consumer Surplus
Welfare
Developed countries' benefits
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4
Level of ambition in developing countries
Producer Surplus
Consumer Surplus
Welfare
Special and differential tratment
Level of S&D decreases
Summary
Easy to use for negotiators and researchers • Graphical user interface• On-line help function and handbook available• No need expensive software (e.g. CGE modelling)• Regular model updates• Possibilities to use the results for trade-poverty nexus analysis
What does it cost?
• Available free on CDATPSM Project CoordinatorUNCTAD / DITCPalais des NationsCH-1211 Geneva
• Available from UNCTAD website www.unctad.org/tab• Support from