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Belfast
CardiffBirmingham
Liverpool
London
Manchester
GlasgowAtradius Country ReportUnited Kingdom – April 2014
Atradius 2
OverviewGeneral information Most important sectors (% of GDP, 2012)Capital: London Services: 78.8 %
Governmenttype: Constitutionalmonarchy Industry: 20.5 %
Currency: Britishpound(GBP) Agriculture: 0.7 %
Population: 63.4million
Main import sources (2012, % of total) Main export markets (2012, % of total)Germany: 12.6 % Germany: 11.3 %
China: 8.0 % USA: 10.5 %
TheNetherlands: 7.5 % TheNetherlands: 8.8 %
USA: 6.7 % France: 7.4 %
France: 5.4 % Ireland: 6.2 %
Belgium: 4.4 % Belgium: 5.1 %
Key Indicators
**
2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
RealGDPgrowth(y-on-y,%change) 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.7 2.5
Consumerprices(y-on-y,%change) 4.5 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.2
Householdconsumption(y-on-y,%change) -0.5 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.3
Retailsales(y-on-y,%change) 0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.8 2.3
Manufacturingproduction(y-on-y,%change) 1.8 -1.7 -0.6 2.6 2.0
Unemploymentrate(%) 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.5
Grossfixedinvestment(y-on-y,%change) -2.4 0.7 -0.5 7.3 6.5
Realnetexports(EURbillion) -16.7 -28.2 -30.6 -34.4 -30.2
Fiscalbalance(%ofGDP) -7.7 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 -4.2
Governmentdebt(%ofGDP) 71.2 75.4 76.8 79.3 80.8
* forecast Sources: Consensus Economics, IHS Global Insight
Main economic developments Economic growth will accelerate further in 2014
AccordingtotheOfficeofNationalStatistics(ONS),inthelastquarterof2013theUK’sGDPincreased0.7 %onthe
previousquarter(seechartbelow)and1.7 %forthefullyear-wellaboveexpectationsatthebeginningof2013.
Source:IHSGlobalInsight,OECD(MEI)
Consumerspendingwasthemaindriverofgrowthandshouldcontinuetoberobustin2014.Thisisexpectedtobe
accompaniedbyareboundininvestments,manufacturingproductionandhigherexportgrowththisyear,finallyputting
theeconomicreboundonabroaderbasis.GDPgrowthof2.7 %isforecastfor2014(seechartbelow).
Source:ConsensusForecasts(Surveydate10March2014)
(% change on previous year)
GDP growth
Atradius 3
Real net exports (EUR billion) -16.7 -28.2 -30.6 -34.4 -30.2
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -7.7 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 -4.2
Government debt (% of GDP) 71.2 75.4 76.8 79.3 80.8 * forecast Sources: Consensus Economics, IHS Global Insight
Main economic developments Economic growth will accelerate further in 2014 According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the last quarter of 2013 the UK’s GDP increased 0.7% on the previous quarter (see chart below) and 1.7% for the full year - well above expectations at the beginning of 2013.
Source: Global Insight, OECD (MEI) Consumer spending was the main driver of growth and should continue to be robust in 2014. This is expected to be accompanied by a rebound in investments, manufacturing production and higher export growth this year, finally putting the economic rebound on a broader basis. GDP growth of 2.7% is forecast for 2014 (see chart below). Bitte Graphik einfügen GDP growth (% change on previous year) Source: Consensus Forecasts (Survey date 10 March 2014) Consumer confidence is improving Last year, consumer confidence was boosted by the more optimistic economic outlook and a rebound in the housing market, with a return to rising house prices having a positive effect on household wealth.
(Quarter-on-Quarter percentage change)
Real GDP growth
5
4
3
2
1
02011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
*forecast
1.1 0.3
2.7
1.8
2.5
Atradius 4
Consumer confidence is improving
Lastyear,consumerconfidencewasboostedbythemoreoptimisticeconomicoutlookandareboundinthehousing
market,withareturntorisinghousepriceshavingapositiveeffectonhouseholdwealth.
Source:IHSGlobalInsight,ICON
Thatturnaroundinthehousingmarketbeganattheendof2012(seebelow)andhascontinuedtoaccelerateeversince:
accordingtomortgagelenderHalifax,housepricesrose7.9 %year-on-yearinFebruarythisyear.However,someanalysts
arealreadytalkingofanewhousingbubble,althoughtheriseisnotyetsoextensiveorsteeptobeacauseforconcern.
Source:IHSGlobalInsight
Private consumption is expected to grow markedly in 2014
Withimprovedconfidenceandrisinghouseprices,UKconsumerspendingshouldcontinueonitsupwardpathand
stimulategrowthin2014.Thattrendisalsohelpedbythedropinunemploymentinrecentmonths(expectedtodecrease
to6.8 %thisyearfrom7.6 %in2013)andconsequentlylessfearofjobloss.
Consumerpriceinflationdecreasedlastyearto2.6 %,butwageincreaseshavestillnotkeptpacewithinflation,leadingto
adeclineinrealwages.However,inflationisexpectedtofallfurtherin2014(to2.0 %),andthisshouldhelptoimprove
householdspendingpower–anotherencouragingsignforhouseholdconsumption.InFebruary2014inflationfelltoafour
yearlowof1.7 %
Source: Global Insight, ICON That turnaround in the housing market began at the end of 2012 (see below) and has continued to accelerate ever since: according to mortgage lender Halifax, house prices rose 7.9% year-on-year in February this year. However, some analysts are already talking of a new housing bubble, although the rise is not yet so extensive or steep to be a cause for concern.
Private consumption is expected to grow markedly in 2014 With improved confidence and rising house prices, UK consumer spending should continue on its upward path and stimulate growth in 2014. That trend is also helped by the drop in unemployment in recent months (expected to decrease to 6.8% this year from 7.6% in 2013) and consequently less fear of job loss. Consumer price inflation decreased last year to 2.6%, but wage increases have still not kept pace with inflation, leading to a decline in real wages. However, inflation is expected to fall further in 2014 (to 2.0%), and this should help to improve household spending power – another encouraging sign for household consumption. In February 2014 inflation fell to a four year low of 1.7%
(Index 100 = Neutral)
Consumer confidence
Source: Global Insight, ICON That turnaround in the housing market began at the end of 2012 (see below) and has continued to accelerate ever since: according to mortgage lender Halifax, house prices rose 7.9% year-on-year in February this year. However, some analysts are already talking of a new housing bubble, although the rise is not yet so extensive or steep to be a cause for concern.
Private consumption is expected to grow markedly in 2014 With improved confidence and rising house prices, UK consumer spending should continue on its upward path and stimulate growth in 2014. That trend is also helped by the drop in unemployment in recent months (expected to decrease to 6.8% this year from 7.6% in 2013) and consequently less fear of job loss. Consumer price inflation decreased last year to 2.6%, but wage increases have still not kept pace with inflation, leading to a decline in real wages. However, inflation is expected to fall further in 2014 (to 2.0%), and this should help to improve household spending power – another encouraging sign for household consumption. In February 2014 inflation fell to a four year low of 1.7%
(National level index, 2000 Q1 = 100)
House prices
Atradius 5
Source:IHSGlobalInsight
Asaresult,householdconsumptionisforecasttoincreaseby2.4 %in2014andafurther2.3 %in2015(seechartbelow).
Source:ConsensusForecasts(Surveydate10March2014)
Increasedhouseholdpurchasingpowerisalsoreflectedinstrongerretailsales.AccordingtoIHSGlobalInsight,retailsales
willincrease0.8 %in2014andbyasmuchas2.3 %in2015(seechartonpage2).
Business confidence has improved
Afterlanguishinglargelyunchangedbetweenearly2012andmid-2013,businessconfidenceinmanufacturingincreased
againinthesecondhalfof2013(seechartbelow)
Source:IHSGlobalInsight,OECD(MEI)
(Annual percentage change in CPI all items)
Consumer price inflation
Source: Global Insight As a result, household consumption is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 2014 and a further 2.3% in 2015 (see chart below). Bitte Graphik einfügen Household consumption (% change on previous year) Source: Consensus Forecasts (Survey date 10 March 2014) Increased household purchasing power is also reflected in stronger retail sales. According to IHS Global Insight, retail sales will increase 0.8% in 2014 and by as much as 2.3% in 2015 (see chart on page 2). Business confidence has improved After languishing largely unchanged between early 2012 and mid-2013, business confidence in manufacturing increased again in the second half of 2013 (see chart below)
Source: Global Insight, OECD (MEI)
Source: Global Insight As a result, household consumption is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 2014 and a further 2.3% in 2015 (see chart below). Bitte Graphik einfügen Household consumption (% change on previous year) Source: Consensus Forecasts (Survey date 10 March 2014) Increased household purchasing power is also reflected in stronger retail sales. According to IHS Global Insight, retail sales will increase 0.8% in 2014 and by as much as 2.3% in 2015 (see chart on page 2). Business confidence has improved After languishing largely unchanged between early 2012 and mid-2013, business confidence in manufacturing increased again in the second half of 2013 (see chart below)
Source: Global Insight, OECD (MEI)
(% change on previous year)
Household consumption
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
*forecast
1.5
-0.5
2.42.4 2.3
(Manufacturing industry index)
Business confidence
Manufacturing to rebound in 2014
In2013manufacturingproductioncontractedby0.6 %.However,thesecondhalfoftheyearsawhigherproduction,an
inflowofnewordersandgrowingexports.Aftertwoyearsofcontraction,manufacturingproductionisforecasttoincrease
2.6 %in2014and2.0 %in2015(seechartbelow).
Source:ConsensusForecasts(Surveydate10March2014)
Activityintheservicesectorincreasedthroughout2013,withincomingnewbusinessandconfidencebothbuoyant.
Theconstructionsectorhasbeenboostedbytheriseinhousepricesandtheconsequentrecoveryindemandforboth
residentialandcommercialconstruction.
A surge in investment in 2014
Afteramixedperformancein2012and2013,themoresettledeconomicenvironmentshouldleadtoasignificantrebound
ingrossfixedinvestmentof7.3 %in2014and6.5 %in2015.Alongwithprivateconsumption,investmentistherefore
expectedtobecomeamaincontributortoUKeconomicgrowthinthenexttwoyears,puttingtheeconomicreboundona
morestablefootingbymakingitlessdependentonprivateconsumptiongrowth.
Source:ConsensusEconomics(SurveydateMarch10,2014)
Atradius 6
(% change on previous year)
Manufacturing production
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
*forecast
-1.7
1.8
2.6
-0.6
2.0
(% change on previous year)
Gross fixed investment
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
*forecast
0.7
-2.4
7.3
-0.5
6.5
Government debt continues to rise
The2008creditcrisisandthesubsequenteconomicdownturnpushedgovernmentdebtupfrom38 %ofGDPin2007
to75 %ofGDPin2012(seechartbelow).Thefiscaldeficitexceeded10 %ofGDPin2009and2010asaconsequenceof
theeconomicslumpandthegovernment’sinvestmentinstimulusmeasures.Comprehensiveausteritymeasuresandtax
increasessince2011haveslowlyreducedthefiscaldeficitto5.6 %ofGDPin2013.
Sinceearly2013thegovernmenthaseaseditsrateoffiscalconsolidationtosupporttherebound,andhighereconomic
growthshouldmakeiteasierforittoreduceitsbudgetdeficit.Lastyear’sdeficitof5.6 %ofGDPisexpectedtodecrease
to5.3 %in2014.Governmentdebtcontinuestocreepup:from76.8 %ofGDPlastyearto79.3 %ofGDPin2014.
Source:IHSGlobalInsight;OfficeforNationalStatistics
InMarch2014,thegovernmentannouncedthatitplanstoreducethebudgetdeficitfurtherin2015andthatitenvisages
adeficitof0.8 %ofGDPinthe2017-18financialyear(FY)withasurplusof0.2 %inFY2018-19.
Loose monetary policy continues to support growth
Despiteconsumerpriceinflationaboveitstargetrateof2 %in2009-2013,theBankofEnglandhasmaintainedits
benchmarkinterestrateat0.5 %sinceApril2009.Indoingsoitiskeepinginplaceitsmonetarypolicyoflowinterestrates
tohelpmitigatetheeffectsoffiscaltighteningandtoavoidinhibitinggrowth.TheBankiscontentwiththisrate,inview
oftheneedformonetarystimulusfortheeconomy,andhasindicatedthatitwillkeepthebenchmarkinterestratesat
0.5 %untilunemploymentdropsto7 %.Inadditiontothelowinterestrate,theBankhasdevisedanumberofschemesto
stimulatelendingforhousingandsmallbusinesses.Itisthereforeexpectedtocontinuewithitsloosemonetarypolicyin
thecomingyear.
External position: increased contribution to economic growth
Inthelastquarterof2013,thelargestcontributiontoeconomicgrowthcamefromnettrade,indicatingthatexportswill
increasinglycontributetoGDP.Togetherwithhigherinvestments,thiswillputthehithertoconsumerspending-driven
reboundonamorebalancedfooting.AccordingtoIHSGlobalInsight,Britishexportswillgrow4.6 %in2014and7.4 %in
2015,after2.6 %in2013.Thecurrentaccountdeficitisforecasttodecreaseto2.3 %ofGDPin2015after3.1 %ofGDPin
2014.
Atradius 7
Source: Global Insight; Office for National Statistics In March 2014, the government announced that it plans to reduce the budget deficit further in 2015 and that it envisages a deficit of 0.8% of GDP in the 2017-18 financial year (FY) with a surplus of 0.2% in FY 2018-19. Loose monetary policy continues to support growth Despite consumer price inflation above its target rate of 2% in 2009-2013, the Bank of England has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% since April 2009. In doing so it is keeping in place its monetary policy of low interest rates to help mitigate the effects of fiscal tightening and to avoid inhibiting growth. The Bank is content with this rate, in view of the need for monetary stimulus for the economy, and has indicated that it will keep the benchmark interest rates at 0.5% until unemployment drops to 7%. In addition to the low interest rate, the Bank has devised a number of schemes to stimulate lending for housing and small businesses. It is therefore expected to continue with its loose monetary policy in the coming year. External position: increased contribution to economic growth In the last quarter of 2013, the largest contribution to economic growth came from net trade, indicating that exports will increasingly contribute to GDP. Together with higher investments, this will put the hitherto consumer spending-driven rebound on a more balanced footing. According to IHS Global Insight, British exports will grow 2.6% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2015, after 0.2% in 2013. The current account deficit is forecast to decrease to 2.7% of GDP in 2015 after 3.8% of GDP in 2014. The insolvency environment Insolvencies are expected to decrease again in 2014 The economic crisis years of 2008 and 2009 saw spectacular year-on-year increases – of more than 20% - in corporate insolvencies .While in 2010 business failures decreased by 16%, this improving trend did not continue in 2011.
(Government debt and budget balance in percent of GDP)
Public debt and budget balance: United Kingdom
The insolvency environmentInsolvencies are expected to decrease again in 2014
Theeconomiccrisisyearsof2008and2009sawspectacularyear-on-yearincreases–ofmorethan20 %-incorporate
insolvencies.Whilein2010businessfailuresdecreasedby16 %,thisimprovingtrenddidnotcontinuein2011.
However,since2012thenumberofbusinessfailureshasagainfallen,andin2013theUKInsolvencyServicerecorded
a7.3 %year-on-yeardecreaseincompulsoryliquidationsandcreditors‘voluntaryliquidationsinEnglandandWales,to
14,982cases.Ofthose,compulsoryliquidationsfell14.9 %to3,624cases,whilecreditors’voluntaryliquidationsdeclined
4.5 %,to11,358cases.
Source:IHSGlobalInsight,TheInsolvencyService
Weexpectthispositivetrendtocontinuein2014,withbusinessfailuresforecasttodecreasebyaround3 %.However,
thisstillputsthenumberofinsolvenciesabove2007pre-crisislevelsataround12,500cases.
Source:TheInsolvencyService,AtradiusEconomicUnit
Atradius 8
(1-year trailing sum of insolvency counts based on quaterly data)
Insolvency trends: United Kingdom
However, since 2012 the number of business failures has again fallen, and in 2013 the UK Insolvency Service recorded a 7.3% year-on-year decrease in compulsory liquidations and creditors´ voluntary liquidations in England and Wales, to 14,982 cases. Of those, compulsory liquidations fell 14.9% to 3,624 cases, while creditors’ voluntary liquidations declined 4.5%, to 11,358 cases.
Source: Global Insight, The Insolvency Service We expect this positive trend to continue in 2014, with business failures forecast to decrease by around 3%. However, this still puts the number of insolvencies above 2007 pre-crisis levels at around 12,500 cases. UK business insolvencies (year-on-year change) Bitte Chart einfügen (excel sheet) Source: The Insolvency Service, Atradius Economic Unit
Default risk for UK listed firms continued to decrease in 2013 Given the stronger than expected economic rebound, the monthly median expected default frequency (EDF) figures for UK listed companies have decreased since last year: to 0.23% in January 2014 (down from 0.5% in January 2013 - see chart below). This is the lowest figure since autumn 2007.
(year-on-year change)
United Kingdom business insolvencies
*forecast
0
% change
0
15,000 15,000
10,000 10,000
2011
5.2 %
16,886
2012
-4.3 %
16,154
2013
-7.3 %
14,982
2008
24.2 %
15,535
2007
-4.8 %
12,507
2009
22.8 %
19,077
2010
-15.9 %
16,045
20,000 20,000
2014*
-3.0 %
14,550
5,000 5,000
Default risk for UK listed firms continued to decrease in 2013
Giventhestrongerthanexpectedeconomicrebound,themonthlymedianexpecteddefaultfrequency(EDF)figuresforUK
listedcompanieshavedecreasedsincelastyear:to0.23 %inJanuary2014(downfrom0.5 %inJanuary2013-seechart
below).Thisisthelowestfiguresinceautumn2007.
Source:KMVCreditMonitorandAtradiusEconomicResearch
*TheExpectedDefaultFrequency(EDF)chartaboveisbasedonlistedcompaniesinthemarketsreferredto,andthelikelihoodofdefaultacrossallsectorswithinthe
nextyear.Inthiscontext,defaultisdefinedasafailuretomakeascheduledpayment,ortheinitiationofbankruptcyproceedings.Probabilityofdefaultiscalculated
fromthreefactors:marketvalueofacompany’sassets,itsvolatilityanditscurrentcapitalstructure.Asaguide,theprobabilityofonefirminahundreddefaultingon
paymentisshownas1 %.
Developments in some main sectorsAutomotive
Structurally,theUK’sautomotiveindustryhasbeenwellplacedtocapitaliseonbothemergingmarketdemandandthe
moveupmarkettomoreaspirational,premiummodels.AccordingtotheSocietyofMotorManufacturersandTraders
(SMMT),UKcarproductionincreased3.1 %in2013,tomorethan1.5millionunits.FouroutoffivecarsbuiltintheUK
weresoldabroad,withstrongdemandcomingfromChina,theUSandRussia.NewcarregistrationsintheUKrosebymore
than10 %lastyear,to2,264,737units.
Weexpectthissectortocontinuetoprofitfromincreasingglobalcarsalesin2014,asWesternEuropeeconomiesstabilise
andtheUSeconomicreboundcontinues.Thismayalsooffsettheslowingpaceofeconomicgrowthintheemerging
marketsofAsiaandSouthAmerica.Thereissignificantinvestmentinnewmodelsandproductioncapacityatanumber
ofUKplants.
Onaverage,paymentsintheUKautomotiveindustrytakebetween45and90daysandthisisexpectedtoremainthecase
inthecomingmonths.Protractedpaymentsinthesectorarerareandconsequentlywehaveseenfewernotificationsof
non-paymentoverrecentmonths.ComparedtootherUKindustries,theautomotivesector’sdefaultandinsolvencyrateis
verygood,withastableoutlook.OurriskunderwritingstanceispositivetowardsallpartsoftheUKautomotivesector-
andisevenmorerelaxedthanlastyear.However,thirdtiercomponentmanufacturersandindependentspecialistvehicle
manufacturersrepresenthigherrisksthanothersegments.
Atradius 9
(Expected default frequency, percentage points)
Median EDF evolution by country*
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Median EDF evolution by country* (Expected default frequency, percentage points)
United Kingdom
Spain
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
France
Construction
UKconstructionbeganquietlyin2013but,astheyearprogressed,therewasadistinctimprovement:firstinthe
residentialbuildingsubsectorwhile,inthesecondhalfoftheyear,theinfrastructuresectorwasakeydriverofsector
growth.
Wearecautiouslyoptimisticaboutthefutureasthestronghousebuildingmarketshouldhelpdriveaconstruction
recoveryin2014.Thecommercialsectorisalsoimprovingand,togetherwithprivatehousingandinfrastructure,willhelp
fuelindustrygrowthoverthenextfiveyears.
Paymentdelaysworsenedin2013assomeofthemajortieronecontractorspushedtheirtermsoutto90and,insome
instances,120days.Thisdidthemostdamagefurtherdownthesupplychain:ineffect,itmeantthatSMEswerehelpingto
fundtheworkingcapitalofmuchlargerandmorepowerfulbusinesses.However,astheanticipatedvolumesandmargins
improvein2014,paymentbehaviourshouldalsoimproveandmanagingcashflowshouldbecomeeasier.
Weexpectconstructioninsolvenciestocontinuetofallin2014-byabout3 %-inlinewithourpredictionofanoverall
decreaseinUKbusinessinsolvencies(seeabove).However,wearemorecautiousaboutthemechanicalsandelectrical
constructionsubsectors.Inbothcases,wehadseendesperatetenderingpricewarsduringthecrisis,withgrossmargins
oncontractsunderparticularstrain.Thishascausedsomemajorinsolvencies,withlargetieronecontractorsleavingthese
sectorsduetoovercapacityandtightmargins.
Consumer durables/non-food retail
Theconsumerdurablesmarketsawpositivegrowthintherun-uptoChristmas2013.Afterasubduedperformancein
earlieryears,theconsumerelectronicssubsectorenjoyedgrowthforthefirsttimeintwoyears.Thesmalldomestic
appliancesubsectorperformedpositivelythroughout2013,rightuptoChristmas,andwiththeimprovinghousingmarket
salesshouldcontinuetogrow.Furnituretraderssawstrongdemandtowardstheendof2013andthefirstfewweeksof
2014.Salespriceshavebeenmaintained,showingthatdiscountinghasnotbeenessentialtoachievethisgrowth.Thereis
realoptimismaboutthenexttwelvemonthsasabuoyanthousingmarketshoulddrivethissubsectorforward.
Ouroutlookforthenextsixmonthsiscautiouslyoptimistic.Withthepost-Christmasperiod-traditionallyatimeforretail
failures-behindus,wehaveseenjustafewrecentfailures.Insolvenciesintheconsumerdurables/non-foodretailsector
fellbyaround5 %in2013.Whilenotforeseeingasharpincreaseingrowthratesorimprovementinmarginsforconsumer
durablesretailers,westillexpectmosttotradewellandinsolvencyratestoleveloffoverthenextsixmonths.
2014willalsoseefurtherstoreclosures,bothwithinandoutsideformalinsolvencyprocesses,asthegrowthofonline
shoppingcontinuestotakeitstollon‘bricksandmortar’retailing.
Atradius 10
UK industries performance forecastApril 2014
Atradius 11
Agriculture
ConsumerDurables
Metals
Automotive/Transport
Electronics/ICT
Paper
Chemicals/Pharma
Financial Services
Services
Construction
Food
Steel
ConstructionMaterials
Machines/Engineering
Textiles
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Bleak
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