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1© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
Whitepaper
Contents Quick Links
Introduction [PG. 1]
Track and Manage Marketing Channels on
a Single Platform [PG. 2]
Path to Conversion Data Combined with Intelligent,
Ongoing Analysis [PG. 3]
Path to Conversion Studies: Client Examples
[PG. 5]
Conclusion and Key Takeaways for Marketers
[PG. 11]
Attribution Analysis–Best Practices for Finding Your Path to SuccessOne of the persistent challenges marketers face is how to most effectively manage
their marketing spend to achieve the best outcome for their advertising programs.
This is further compounded when independently managing multiple online channels
(e.g., display, paid search, natural search, affiliate, social, mobile and email
marketing programs) with little to no visibility into how these programs may
impact each other. How can marketers better understand how each component
of their marketing program is really affecting conversions to make truly informed
decisions? While managing to the true Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) across marketing
channels is the desired outcome, how can marketers do this in both a cost-
effective and meaningful way to achieve the results they desire?
These challenges illustrate the importance of understanding how each component
of your marketing activity impacts desired conversion activity. After all, without
these insights, how can you make the informed decisions to drive optimal results?
In a recent report on the value of integrating search and display channels,
eMarketer further underscores this sentiment, explaining:
“ Most conversions occur as a result of long-term, complex interactions
among a variety of ads and marketing channels. However, even after
years of research, some marketers still give more weight to the
consumer’s last click – often on search results, both ads and organic
listings- than any other step in the purchase funnel leading to conversion.
That mistaken notion makes it hard to effectively blend search and display
advertising into an overall campaign and allocate spending based on
true performance.”1
This whitepaper reviews best practices to help you understand what is really driving
conversion activity across all your online marketing channels and sites, and how these
valuable insights can help you make better decisions around marketing spend allocation
for optimal ROAS. You will learn the importances of the following practices:
✓ Track and manage all your marketing programs through one system
✓ Gather and identify the Path to Conversion data you will need to answer
your questions
1 Hallerman, D. (2011, April). Integrating Search and Display: Tactics for More Effective Advertising.
Retrieved from eMarketer database.
2© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
✓ Identify the right questions to put you on the road to success
✓ Apply both data and analysis to deliver your specific formula
for success
✓ Commit to ongoing data collection, analysis and refinement
Track and Manage Marketing Channels on a Single PlatformBefore marketers can even begin to understand how their marketing channels
influence each other and impact conversion activity, they must first ensure they
are properly tracking and managing all of their marketing channels in unison –
using a single system. Even if marketers are using various, independent solutions
for managing paid search or email, for example, those marketing channels should
still use a unified analytics platform for tracking clicks and impressions. Moving to
a single, comprehensive platform allows marketers to accurately track conversions
and view consumer interaction data from ALL online channels and sites, as well as
establish the baseline for how they will define the data for any future analysis.
Path to Conversion® Data
Now that a solid foundation for consistently tracking and managing all the
data across online activity has been established, the next step is to take a look
at identifying all the different paths, or sequence of events, a user took that
led to the conversion event. This view into the entire path of events leading
up to a conversion plays a critical role in helping marketers understand the
true performance of their marketing efforts across all the different programs
and channels they are now tracking. This data delivers the critical information
necessary to understand how the advertising campaigns work together with a
single marketing objective, rather than as channels in silos competing against
each other.
The sequence of events leading up to a conversion is known as Path to Conversion
data. Examples of these events include impressions, clicks and any other tracked
event within a marketing channel. Path to Conversion data allows advertisers
to view and analyze their media buys beyond the last click event - giving them
greater insight into their data by revealing the entire path of events leading up to
a conversion.
3© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
Path to Conversion Data Combined with Intelligent, Ongoing Analysis Once the foundation for the data has been established, and the relevant data paths for
the conversion activity have been gathered, the next step is to establish the questions
marketers want answered in order to achieve their goals. Years of experience
demonstrate there is no one size fits all approach to understanding the Path to
Conversion. Marketers should evaluate their specific business goals and objectives
alongside their Path to Conversion data in order to develop a customized solution
that they can then continue to optimize and refine.
The following attribution framework is useful in helping marketers identify the
marketing mix variables (sites, creatives, channels, etc.) and conversion types
(e.g. number of orders, number of sales, number of registrations, etc.) that apply
to their current business in order to identify which pieces are most relevant. The
subsequent Path to Conversion analysis then shines a light on the process through
which the marketing mix variables generate conversions. It shows how the
marketing mix variables interact, where adjusting spending on the marketing mix
variables can lead to more efficient conversion generation, and how marketers can
create more conversions. For example, marketers looking to achieve maximum
SITES
CHANNELS
CREATIVES
Marketing Mix
Profile & Event Data
Conversions
ordersROI 1
registrationsROI 3
ROI 2sales
Profile 1
Attribute 1
Return
NewSize
Content
Rich Media
DynamicMessaging
Site 1
Site 2
Site 3
Display
Affiliate
Offsite Social
Mobile
NaturalSearch
PaidSearch
CUSTOMER PROFILE
Introducers Influencers Converters
Broad Search Fuzzy Search Exact Search
ATTRIBUTION FRAMEWORK
4© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
scale with their marketing investment will often focus as much attention toward
the top of the funnel as the bottom of the funnel, and optimizing the significant
role introducers play in generating conversions. Path to Conversion provides the
insights to support these sophisticated goals, enabling marketers to make the
most effective adjustments to the marketing mix and achieve the desired results.
After the attribution framework has been identified, marketers can begin to define
the key questions they want answered by their Path to Conversion model. Once
they have selected the right questions, they can then set out to determine the
time frame during which they need their activities to run and be measured before
beginning to analyze the data. When phrasing each question, they should try to
do so in the form of a testable hypothesis. An example of this might be stated as:
True or false? Display and paid search can be proven to perform better with users
who have interacted with both. Oftentimes, when first approaching the process,
the advertiser may not realize that the answers are not always black and white,
but more like shades of grey. Framing a question as a hypothesis helps the marketer
focus the study. Once a marketer has identified the questions, the data and
analysis will reveal if the answers to the questions are statistically significant.
After establishing the questions for the study, the following is recommended:
• Track and analyze Path to Conversion data for one month. This timeframe is an
average which may vary depending on the volume of the data.
• For each conversion, include up to the last 10 impression (14 day window), last
10 click (120 day window), and last 10 natural search (30 day window) events.
• Path to Conversion data should include all media exposures within the utilized
marketing channels.
• All Path to Conversion data should be tracked and managed in a single
technology platform.
Once Path to Conversion data has been captured for the established time period,
the analysis can begin.
5© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
Path to Conversion Studies: Client Examples
Let’s review how a few advertisers framed successful Path to Conversion studies
to not only ensure they were properly crediting conversions, but also using the
information to better allocate marketing spend across all relevant sites and
marketing channels for the best possible performance.
The following five questions provided these advertisers with the right mix of data
and actionable insights to better understand what drove conversions, as well as
how to use this information to refine their media decisions and spend to most
positively impact their bottom lines.
1) Which marketing channels are influencing response rates?
To answer this question, the following two types of analysis were performed:
Channel Analysis: This shows the number of conversions credited to each
channel based on single attribution (conversions won), and how many conversions
were influenced by the channel (conversions influenced).
Cross-Channel Analysis: This shows how one channel is having an impact on
another channel’s conversions. This type of analysis may reveal that one channel
is simply self-sufficient in converting users while another channel is heavily
influenced by other channels.
Convert Channel
Media Exposures
Conversions Influenced
Conversions Credited
Paid Search
Affiliate Display Email
Paid Search
110,293 97,270 96,347 96,347 548 11,327 232
Affiliate 44,754 28,364 27,669 504 27,669 3,456 82
Display 130,118 34,246 17,491 281 56 17,491 50
Email 11,674 9,058 8,694 138 91 1,971 8,694
Total 296,838 168,938 150,202 97,270 28,364 34,246 9,058
Influence % of Conversions Credited
Convert Channel
Media Exposures
Conversions Influenced
Conversions Credited
Paid Search
Affiliate Display Email
Paid Search
37% 65% 64% 100% 1% 12% 0%
Affiliate 15% 19% 18% 2% 100% 12% 0%
Display 44% 23% 12% 2% 0% 100% 0%
Email 4% 6% 6% 2% 1% 23% 100%
Source: Mediaplex
6© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
Answer
As a result of this analysis, the advertiser learned the following:
• The most valuable insight in this study is that display has a much bigger impact
on conversions than is obvious from the standard last click attribution. It
influenced nearly twice as many conversions (23%) as it was credited (12%).
• Paid search accounted for 37% of all media exposures but influenced 65% of
conversions and was credited with 64% of conversions.
• Display accounted for 44% of all media exposures but influenced 23% of
conversions and was credited with only 12% of conversions.
• 12% of the conversions that were credited to the paid search channel were
influenced by display.
• Email played a significant role only in conversions credited to that channel.
2) How does a channel’s ROAS change when that channel’s impact on non-credited conversions is included?
To answer this question, standard conversion metrics, along with path to
conversion (influence) metrics, were collected and analyzed to more effectively
evaluate performance of the entire media plan. Standard conversion metrics help
identify which media buys are effective “converters.” Path to Conversion metrics
and analysis help identify and quantify the value of “influencers” on conversions.
The following Path to Conversion performance metrics were then applied to
answer this question:
• Conversions influenced
• Cost per conversion influenced
• Average revenue per conversion influenced
7© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
Answer
Including the supporting role of a media exposure in leading to a conversion can
have a dramatic impact on valuing the benefits of media spending. At first glance,
analysis shows us when using standard metrics that the MSN buy appears to be
the better performing media buy with a $94.79 cost per conversion. But when
the Path to Conversion metrics are incorporated, one will notice that the Yahoo
buy may be the more efficient and effective media buy in the overall impact on
all conversions.
• Yahoo was credited with 12.7% of total conversions but had an influence on
20.6% of total conversions.
• Yahoo interacted 4.4 times with the conversions that it influenced (slightly less
than MSN at 4.5).
• Yahoo had a lower “cost per conversion influenced” than MSN ($70.42 vs. $83.68).
• Yahoo also influenced conversions that had a higher revenue value than MSN
($147.30 vs. $111.55).
Media Buy Conversions
Won
% Total
Conversions
Won
Total Cost Cost Per
Conversion
Win
Conversions
Influenced
% of Total
Conversions
Influenced
Total P2C
Media
Exposure
Avg. # of
P2C Media
Exposure
per
Conversion
Influenced
Cost Per
Conversion
Influenced
Avg.
Revenue
Per
Conversion
Influenced
Advertising.
com
201 9.70% $20,000 $99.50 301 14.60% 1220 4.1 $66.45 $115.23
AOL.com 246 11.90% $25,000 $101.63 299 14.50% 814 2.7 $83.61 $134.56
Google.
com
301 14.60% $20,500 $68.11 378 18.30% 822 2.2 $54.23 $138.22
MSN 211 10.20% $20,000 $94.79 239 11.60% 1083 4.5 $83.68 $111.55
Yahoo.com 263 12.70% $30,000 $114.07 426 20.60% 1878 4.4 $70.42 $147.30
Other 846 40.90% $115,500 $136.52
Total 2068 100% $231,000 $111.70
Source: Mediaplex
8© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
3) What are the effects of generic search terms on branded search terms?
To answer this question, the advertiser first identified branded keywords. An
example of a branded keyword would be the name of the company or product.
Next the advertiser reviewed the conversion path data to identify how many times
a relevant, non-branded keyword preceded a branded keyword in the conversion path.
Search Type Wins Share of Wins
Branded 14,495 71%
Not Branded 6,023 29%
Total 20,518 100%
Number of Generic Search Words Before First Branded Search Event in Branded Search Win
Number of Search Wins Number of Search Wins
0 9,453 65%
1 4,220 29%
2 800 6%
3 12 0%
4 4 0%
5 4 0%
7 1 0%
8 1 0%
Answer
• 29% of the search channel wins were based upon keywords that were not
brand specific. This is a significant lift above an earlier study where they only
accounted for 10% of the keyword wins.
• Non-branded keywords had a noticeable influence on branded search wins. 35%
of brand keyword search wins had a non-branded search event occur somewhere
earlier in the Path to Conversion.
• 9,453 of the 20,518 Search channel wins (46%) were based upon someone
already searching for the client, using search as more of a navigational rather
than influential tool.
Source: Mediaplex
9© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
4) What are the most common multi-site paths to conversion?
To answer this question, the full path to conversion data for the last 20 events
prior to conversion was analyzed.
Answer
• Long path conversions (3+ events) are driven by either Right Media or
ValueClick.com impressions. Advertising.com is involved in shorter
path conversions.
• Time lags between the last event and the conversion are also identified,
as well as the time taken for the entire conversion path.
Source: Mediaplex
...2000
Top 6
Paths
Conversions
Won
Events
In
Path
Winning
Timelag
(Median
Hours)
Entire
Path
Length
(Median
Hours)
Last Event 2nd Last 3rd Last 4th Last … 10th
last
1 358 10 1.39 19.71 Advertising.
com Display
Right Media
Display
Right Media
Display
Right Media
Display
… Right Media
Display
2 346 2 0.77 0.93 Advertising.
com Display
ValueClick
Display
…
3 202 2 0.04 0.38 Yahoo
Search
Advertising.
com Display
…
4 151 3 0.04 0.35 ValueClick
Display
Advertising.
com Display
Advertising.
com Display
…
5 141 3 0.22 7.82 ValueClick
Display
ValueClick
Display
Advertising.
com Display
…
6 140 10 0.31 0.33 Advertising.
com Display
ValueClick
Display
ValueClick
Display
ValueClick
Display
… ValueClick
Display
10© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
5) What is the impact of changing the attribution model from last click to first click?
Answer
• Display gets credit for 20 email attributed conversions, 30 natural search
attributed conversions and 400 paid search attributed conversions. This
increases its conversion share from 44% to 54%, a 22% increase.
• Paid search gives 400 attributed conversions to display and 75 attributed
conversions to email, dropping its share by 30%, from 33% to 23%.
• Re-scoring the cost per conversion drops the display cost per conversion from
$1.00 to $0.82, and increases paid search from $0.50 to $0.73.
These questions and resulting answers are great examples of how advertisers
were able to frame successful Path to Conversion studies in order meet their
specific goals and objectives. These examples also further demonstrate that Path
to Conversion data is unique to each organization, so marketers need to decide
the questions that will be most actionable for them based on their own marketing
channels and sales cycles. This should also be approached as a continuous process
on the path to achieving the greatest ROAS. The following are examples of some
other potential questions marketers may want to ask:
Convert
Channel
Conversions
Credited
Conversions
Credited
Share
Media
Spend
$ Per
Conversion
Display Email Social
Networks
Natural
Search
Paid
Search
Re-Scored
Conversions
Credited
Re-Scored
Conversions
Credited
Share
Re-Scored
$ Per
Conversion
Display 2000 44% $2,000 $1.00 20 30 400 2,450 54% $0.82
Email 300 7% $600 $2.00 (20) 75 355 8% $1.69
Social
Networks
500 11% $1,000 $2.00 500 11% $2.00
Natural
Search
200 4% - - (30) 170 4% -
Paid
Search
1500 33% $750 $0.50 (400) (75) 1,025 23% $0.73
Total 4,500 100% $4,350 $0.97 (450) (55) - 30 475 4,500 100% $0.97
1st Click Events Not Credited
with Conversions
Source: Mediaplex
11© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
• What are the effects of display on search (both paid search and natural search)?
• How many times is your advertising interacting with users prior to their conversion?
• Is a long haul campaign with multiple media exposures over a long time or short
intense bursts of media more rewarding?
• How many different creatives do customers usually see before they convert?
• How do channels differ in latency (time between media exposure and
conversion)?
• How does the conversion lift from display ads diminish over time?
Conclusion and Key Takeaways for MarketersFinding the right formula for attribution success will certainly vary from business
to business, but by following the fundamentals outlined above, marketers can be
confident they are moving in the right direction. While many takeaways may be
gleamed from this whitepaper, the following key benefits of attribution analysis
further underscore the importance of getting started now if you haven’t already:
1. Achieve better ROAS – Reviewing your conversion path data will reveal the
true role of all your sites and channels in the conversion process, yielding
significant insights you cannot gleam from a single attribution model. This will
allow you to confidently and successfully allocate marketing spend to the sites
and channels that will yield the best ROAS.
2. Deliver more effective messages – Path to Conversion helps you to
understand the role each site and channel plays in the conversion process.
Knowing which one plays the role of “the introducer” or “the influencer” or
“the converter” allows you to most effectively message to you audience
based on the site’s specific role in the conversion path.
3. Understand true ROI behind search activity – Reviewing the conversion
paths within paid and natural search clearly separates branded keywords from
non-branded ones. This allows you to identify what really generates new
recruitment of users to your site from online advertising activities versus those
users who are strictly clicking on branded keywords as a means of site
navigation.
12© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com
About Mediaplex
Mediaplex provides cross-channel advertising technology solutions and services that enable
marketers to achieve one-to-one messaging, greater efficiencies and a competitive edge through
insightful reporting and analytics. Our team of industry experts focuses on putting the customer first,
providing advanced technology solutions alongside consulting services for the greatest return on
their marketing spend. Our ability to blend technology, campaign experience and customized expert
analysis gives our clients more than just a product or service but a true partnership. Since 1996,
Mediaplex has serviced more than 20,000 marketers and currently manages more than $1 billion
in annual digital ad spend for its clients, which include AccuQuote, eBay, Shutterfly, Sirius, United
Airlines and Wells Fargo.
Contact Us to Learn More
Mediaplex Headquarters
160 Spear Street, 15th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105
415.644.1400 direct | 1.877.402.7539 toll free
Visit us online at www.mediaplex.com