1
Audit Committees and Earnings Quality
Peter Baxter – University of the Sunshine Coast
Julie Cotter* – University of Southern Queensland *Address for correspondence - School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business,
University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD 4350, AUSTRALIA
Abstract
This research investigates whether audit committees are associated with improved
earnings quality for a sample of Australian listed companies prior to the introduction of
mandatory audit committee requirements in 2003. Two measures of earnings quality are
used based on models first developed by Jones (1991) and Dechow and Dichev (2002).
Our results indicate that formation of an audit committee reduces intentional earnings
management but not accrual estimation errors. We also find differences in the
associations between audit committee accounting expertise and the two earnings quality
measures. Other audit committee characteristics examined are not significantly related to
either earnings quality measure.
Keywords: Audit committees, Corporate governance, Earnings management, Earnings
quality
JEL Descriptors: G30, G38, M41
_____________
This paper is from Peter‟s PhD thesis completed at the University of Southern Queensland (USQ). We are
grateful for the input of his Associate Supervisor, Gary Monroe from the Australian National University
(ANU). We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments and suggestions.
This paper has also benefited from the comments of seminar participants at Griffith University, ANU, USQ,
Central Queensland University (CQU), the 2005 University of Technology Sydney Accounting Research
Summer School, and the 2005 Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand
(AFAANZ) Conference. Funding support was provided by USQ, CQU and a PhD scholarship jointly
sponsored by AFAANZ, CPA Australia and the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia. The GICS
industry classification data was kindly provided by Standard and Poor‟s. The Global Industry Classification
Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a trademark of Standard & Poor‟s, a
division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“S&P”) and Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc.
(“MSCI”).
2
1. Introduction
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the association between audit
committees and earnings quality in Australia. We examine two key aspects of this
relation, audit committee formation and audit committee characteristics. We use
measures of earnings quality based on models first developed by Jones (1991) and
Dechow and Dichev (2002). Measures based on the Jones „earnings management‟ model
are generally characterised as capturing managements‟ intent to manipulate earnings,
while measures based on Dechow and Dichev‟s „accrual estimation error‟ model include
accrual estimation errors arising from management lapses or environmental uncertainties.
Improved quality of financial reporting practices, and more specifically earnings,
has been widely cited as one of the major benefits of companies establishing audit
committees (Blue Ribbon Committee, 1999; Australian Accounting Research Foundation
(AARF) et al., 2001; Ramsay, 2001). However, the approach adopted by the Australian
Stock Exchange (ASX)1 from the early 1990s to 2003 was one of disclosure only,
requiring listed companies to provide statements about their main corporate governance
practices, including whether they had an audit committee and if appropriate, why they did
not comply with best practice guidelines. Audit committees only became mandatory in
2003 for those listed companies on the S & P All Ordinaries Index following the
recommendations of the ASX Corporate Governance Council2 (ASX Corporate
1 Following the merger of the Australian Stock Exchange with the Sydney Future Exchange in 2006, the
ASX became the Australian Securities Exchange. 2 A second edition of these recommendations was issued in 2007, but the 2003 edition applies to this study.
3
Governance Council, 2003).3 Given the previous relative lack of audit committee
regulation in Australia as compared to the US and other overseas jurisdictions4, pre-2003
Australia represents a rich empirical setting for the analysis of the association between
audit committees and earnings quality.
Davidson et al. (2005) and Koh et al. (2007) are the only known published studies
to utilise this voluntary institutional setting to explore the relationship between audit
committees and earnings quality. We extend their research in several ways. First, we
capture earnings quality using measures of accrual estimation errors as well as abnormal
accruals. The accrual estimation errors measure is a more comprehensive measure of
earnings quality. We are not aware of any prior published research into the relationship
between audit committees and earnings quality that uses measures based on Dechow and
Dichev‟s (2002) accrual estimation errors model. A comparison of our results between
these two earnings quality measures allows us to investigate the potential impact of audit
committees on different aspects of earnings quality.5 Second, we examine whether
earnings quality increases following the voluntary formation of an audit committee.
While several studies including Davidson et al. (2005) have examined whether the
existence of an audit committee is associated with earnings quality, tests of this
association do not differentiate between whether (a) the audit committee impacts earnings
3 In addition, entities in the top 300 of the Index are now required to comply with the ASX Corporate
Governance Council‟s best practice recommendations relating to the composition, operation and
responsibility of the audit committee (Australian Stock Exchange, 2006). 4 Audit committees have been mandatory on the major US stock exchanges since as early as 1978
(Vanasco, 1994). More recently, there has been an increasing trend around the world towards requiring
listed companies to not only establish audit committees, but also to ensure that they meet pre-specified
requirements including composition and reporting obligations. For example, in the US following
recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Committee (1999), the New York Stock Exchange and the National
Association of Securities Dealers changed their listing rules to require listed companies to maintain audit
committees with at least three directors, all of whom are independent of management (Klein, 2003). 5 Unpublished research by Dhaliwal et al. (2006) and Kent et al. (2008) use measures based on the Dechow
and Dichev (2002) model to capture accruals quality. However neither of these studies makes comparisons
between measures of accruals quality and earnings management.
4
quality or (b) firms with high quality earnings are more likely to form an audit
committee. Overseas research (Wild, 1994; Jeon et al., 2004) has found mixed evidence
about the impact of audit committee formation on earnings quality. Third, in addition to
the audit committee characteristics examined by Davidson et al. (2005) and Koh et al.
(2007), we investigate the impact of audit committee expertise on earnings quality.
Recent unpublished work in the US by Dhaliwal et al. (2006) reports an association
between audit committee accounting expertise and accruals quality. Finally, we use a
more refined measure of audit committee independence than that used in prior Australian
studies that investigate the association between audit committee characteristics and
earnings quality (Davidson et al., 2005; Koh et al., 2007).
Our results suggest that earnings quality increases in the year following voluntary
audit committee formation. However this is only the case when earnings quality is
captured using measures based on Jones‟ (1991) earning management model rather than
Dechow and Dichev‟s (2002) accrual estimation error model. This result appears to
indicate that audit committees are effective in reducing intentional accrual manipulations,
which are better captured by the Jones model. We also find differences in the
associations between audit committee accounting expertise and the two earnings quality
measures. When we capture earnings quality using accrual estimation errors, we find
higher earnings quality (lower accrual estimation errors) for companies with a greater
proportion of qualified accountants on their audit committee. However, we do not find a
similar reduction in earnings management. Indeed, we find some evidence that suggests
higher abnormal accruals for firms with a greater proportion of accounting expertise on
their audit committee. Results pertaining to our other audit committee characteristics are
5
similar to those found by Davidson et al. (2005) with the exception of audit committee
independence. Using our more refined measure of independence, we find that this audit
committee characteristic does not impact earnings quality.
The remainder of this paper is organised as follows: Section 2 outlines the prior
literature and hypotheses tested in this paper. Section 3 delineates our earnings quality
measures, while Section 4 describes the empirical analysis. Section 5 concludes the
paper.
2. Prior literature and hypotheses
2.1 Audit committee formation
Several prior studies provide empirical support for a cross-sectional association
between audit committees and financial reporting quality (e.g., McMullen, 1996; Dechow
et al., 1996; Beasley et al., 2000). However, the research designs used in these prior
studies are unable to establish whether the existence of an audit committee per se impacts
earnings quality. For a more direct test of the impact of audit committees on earnings
quality, it is necessary to consider changes in earnings quality subsequent to the
formation of an audit committee.
The only known published study that directly examines the association between
the formation of audit committees, earnings management and, inversely, earnings quality
is Jeon et al. (2004). Contrary to expectations, their findings indicate that earnings
management did not significantly decrease in the period after audit committee formation.
These results conflict with those of Wild (1994) who finds a significant increase in the
market's reaction to earnings reports released after audit committee formation.
6
We propose an association between the formation of an audit committee and an
increase in earnings quality. Tests will allow a direct assessment of whether the voluntary
formation of an audit committee is followed by an increase in earnings quality for our
sample of Australian companies.
H1: The formation of an audit committee is associated with an increase in
earnings quality.
2.2 Audit committee characteristics
Independence
The independence of an audit committee is often considered an essential
characteristic influencing the committee‟s effectiveness in overseeing the financial
reporting process. It can be argued that independent directors are in the best position to
serve as active overseers of the financial reporting process, thereby having a greater
ability to withstand pressure from management to manipulate earnings (Klein, 2002).
Audit committee independence has been found to be significantly associated with
measures of earnings quality in several prior studies (e.g., Klein, 2002; Bedard et al.,
2004; Choi et al., 2004; Van der Zahn and Tower, 2004; Davidson et al., 2005; Vafeas,
2005). However, within these studies, there are some inconsistencies in the results. For
example, Klein (2002) finds no evidence of a significant association between an audit
committee comprised solely of independent directors and her measure of earnings
management. Whereas, Bedard et al. (2004) find that the same measure of audit
committee independence is negatively associated with the likelihood of aggressive
earnings management.
7
Expertise
In addition to independence, the expertise of the audit committee is generally
considered an important characteristic for its effective operation. It has been argued that
effective oversight by an audit committee requires that its members possess sufficient
expertise in accounting and auditing to independently assess the matters that are
presented to them (Beasley and Salterio, 2001; Davidson et al., 2004; DeFond et al.,
2005).
Several prior studies have found a significant association between the expertise of
the audit committee and earnings quality (e.g., Xie et al., 2003; Bedard et al., 2004; Choi
et al., 2004; Dhaliwal et al., 2006). However, some inconsistencies exist between the
results of these studies and others such as Van der Zahn and Tower (2004) who failed to
find an association between the magnitude of earnings management and the audit
committee's financial expertise amongst the independent directors.
Activity and size
The level of activity of an audit committee has been recommended as important to
enhance its effectiveness in improving earnings quality. Menon and Williams (1994)
suggest that the mere formation of an audit committee does not mean that the committee
is actually relied on by the board of directors to enhance its monitoring ability. Choi et al.
(2004, p.41) argue that an "…actively functioning audit committee is more likely to
detect earnings management than a dormant committee." In addition, the size of an audit
committee can have a positive impact on earnings quality. Larger audit committees can
be more effective as they are likely to include members with varied expertise to perform
more intense monitoring of financial reporting practices (Choi et al., 2004).
8
Inconsistent results in the prior studies also exist for the association between audit
committee activity and earnings management or earnings quality. While Xie et al. (2003),
Van der Zahn and Tower (2004) and Vafeas (2005) find evidence of a significant
association between these variables, Choi et al. (2004), Bedard et al. (2004) and
Davidson et al. (2005) find that audit committee activity is not significantly related to
earnings management. Similar inconsistent results also exist in relation to the size of the
audit committee. We use the following hypothesis:
H2: The independence, expertise, activity, and size of an audit committee are
positively associated with earnings quality.
3. Earnings quality measures
3.1 Earnings quality vs earnings management
This paper uses two measures of earnings quality. The first measure uses a
modified version of the Jones (1991) model of discretionary accruals. This measure has
been widely used in the literature to capture earnings management, which can be viewed
as an inverse measure of earnings quality. Schipper (1989, p. 92) defines earnings
management as "…a purposeful intervention in the external financial reporting process,
with the intent of obtaining some private gain." Under this perspective, opportunistic
earnings management negatively impacts on the quality of earnings, i.e., the greater the
earnings management, the lower the earnings quality.6
Our second measure of earnings quality uses a modified version of the Dechow
and Dichev (2002) accrual estimation errors model. This model is based on the argument
that estimation errors in accruals and subsequent corrections of these errors decrease the
6 An alternative view is that earnings are managed to allow managers to reveal more private information to
users about the financial reports (Schipper, 1989; Healey and Wahlen, 1999).
9
quality of accruals and earnings. However, unlike the Jones (1991) type models of
discretionary accruals, no attempt is made to separate the intentional from the
unintentional accrual estimation errors (Dechow and Dichev, 2002). This is because both
types of errors imply low quality earnings.
3.2 Measures of Earnings Quality
We capture earnings quality using absolute value measures from the two models
described below. The sign of these measures is deemed not to be relevant since all
deviations from underlying earnings reduce earnings quality, regardless of their direction.
They are inverse measures of earnings quality. We use cross-sectional rather than time-
series specifications for each of our measures since we require measures of earnings
quality for specific firm years. Information on the Global Industry Classification Standard
(GICS) is used to form the industry matched samples required to calculate our earnings
quality variables. To ensure sufficient degrees of freedom and enhance the validity of
these measures, we limit our sample to companies in those industry groups that had 20 or
more companies listed on the ASX. For companies in large industry groups, our industry
matched samples comprise 30 companies.
Our first measure of earnings quality (EQJones) is based on the modified version
of the Jones (1991) discretionary accruals model proposed by Dechow et al. (1995).7 We
use cross-sectional samples of companies in the same industry groups as the sample
companies. The absolute value of discretionary accruals is used as our first measure of
earnings quality (EQJones).
7 This version of the Jones (1991) model includes the change in receivables in the equation used to estimate
the industry specific coefficients. Since this model is well established in the literature, we do not provide
further details about how we calculate discretionary accruals here.
10
It has been argued that there is the potential for discretionary accruals models to
misclassify expected accruals as unexpected because of the incompleteness of the
expected accruals model (Bernard and Skinner, 1996; Larcker and Richardson, 2004).
Guay et al. (1996) suggests that their evidence was consistent with the models estimating
discretionary accruals with considerable imprecision and/or misspecification. Hansen
(1999) concludes that studies relying entirely on the validity of discretionary accruals
models were likely to under- or overstate proposed earnings management behaviour.
Dechow et al. (1995) demonstrates that discretionary accruals models typically generated
tests of low power for earnings management of economically plausible magnitudes.
In an attempt to overcome criticisms of the modified Jones model, we use an
additional proxy for earnings quality. Our second measure of earnings quality (EQDD)
uses the cross-sectional version of the Dechow and Dichev (2002) accrual estimation
error model employed by Francis et al. (2005).8 McNichols (2002) provides a critique of
the Dechow and Dichev (DD) model9. Following McNichols‟ (2002) critique and
associated recommendations for improvement, Francis et al. (2005) add two variables
from the Jones (1991) model, i.e., the change in current sales and the level of property
plant and equipment.
We calculate EQDD by estimating the modified following regression for each
sample company relative to its industry group of companies for each of the years of
interest. All variables in equation (4) are divided by average total assets:
WCt = b0 + b1CFOt-1 + b2CFOt + b3CFOt+1 + b4Salest + b5PPEt +t (4)
8 Our results are essentially unchanged when the original Dechow and Dichev (2002) model is used.
9 McNichols (2002) identifies several specific areas of weakness with the DD model. These include a
failure to separately consider how total accruals might be affected by the behaviour of discretionary
accruals.
11
Where:
WCt = Working capital in year t i.e. Accounts receivable + Inventory -
Accounts payable - Taxes payable + Other assets (net);
CFOt-1 = Cash flows from operations in year t – 1;
CFOt = Cash flows from operations in year t;
CFOt+1 = Cash flows from operations year in year t + 1;
Salest = Sales in year t less sales in year t – 1;
PPEt = Gross property, plant and equipment in year t
This measure of earnings quality captures the extent to which accruals map into
cash flow realisations in past, present and future cash flows. Francis et al. (2005) use the
standard deviation of the residuals from this model as a measure of earnings quality.
However, we are not able to use the standard deviation of the residuals from our cross-
sectional industry model since this would provide a measure of earnings quality across all
companies in the industry group rather than just the company of interest. Following
Srinidhi and Gul (2007) who also need to capture this measure on a firm-year basis, we
use the absolute value of the residual as our measure of earnings quality. The higher the
absolute residual for each sample company, the lower is the quality of earnings.
4. Empirical analysis
4.1 Data and sample
The financial statement data items used to estimate our earnings quality measures
are extracted from the Aspect Financial Database (SIRCA Ltd, 2004). To facilitate testing
of hypothesis 1 which proposes an association between audit committee formation and an
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increase in earnings quality, these variables are estimated for the years before and after
audit committee formation. That is, we use industry matched samples to estimate our
earnings quality measures for both the pre and post formation years. In addition, they are
re-estimated for each of our sample firms in 2001, since this is the year used to test the
associations between earnings quality and audit committee independence, expertise,
activity, and size proposed in hypothesis 2.10
Data required for these audit committee variables is hand collected from the 2001
annual reports. Audit committee independence and expertise for each director is assessed
from disclosures about directors‟ backgrounds, qualifications and experience. The
definition of director independence as specified by the ASX Corporate Governance
Council (2003) was used11
. Accounting and legal expertise are defined in terms of
professional qualifications.
[Insert table 1 here]
The sample is drawn from the top 500 Australian companies listed on the
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with financial years ending during 2001. Sample
selection procedures and final sample sizes for hypotheses tests are shown in Table 1.
We exclude companies without an audit committee (37) and those companies for which it
could not be determined whether an audit committee existed (4). Banks, trusts and
foreign companies (37) are also excluded since financial reporting requirements for these
companies differ from those of other companies listed on the ASX. Companies in the
10
This year is selected as the base year to avoid any effects of companies anticipating the new ASX listing
rule requiring audit committees to be formed by all companies in the S&P All Ordinaries Index. This new
rule came into effect from 1 January 2003. 11
Essentially, independent directors are non-executive directors who do not have a business or other
relationship with the firm that could interfere with their ability to act independently. These assessments
were made by one author based on annual report information and validated by the other.
13
Diversified Financials and Real Estate industry groups (15) are excluded because they do
not typically generate any sales revenue, which is needed to calculate our earnings quality
variables. As we require sufficiently large numbers of companies to form the industry
matched samples needed to calculate our measures of earning quality, we delete 74
companies from several small GICS industry groups12
. Finally, we delete 24 companies
where complete annual report data for 2001 is not available. This leaves a final sample
size of 309 companies for tests of the association between audit committee characteristics
and earnings quality (H2). Table 2 Panel A shows the industry breakdown of our sample.
[Insert table 2 here]
Further deletions from our sample are needed for tests of the association between
the formation of an audit committee and earnings quality (H1). In particular, we exclude
companies for which we are unable to reliably determine the audit committee formation
year from annual reports. These comprise companies whose audit committees were
formed prior to 1993 requirements to disclose audit committees in annual reports (80),
those that listed on the ASX with an audit committee already in place (133), and those for
which pre/post formation year annual report data is not available (24). This left a sample
of 72 companies for tests of hypothesis one. Panel B of Table 2 shows the number of
companies forming their audit committee by year. The higher numbers of formations
during the 1994 to 1996 period suggest that the 1993 introduction of disclosure
requirements provided an impetus for some companies to form an audit committee.
12
These industry groups were Automobiles and Components; Consumer Durables and Apparel; Food and
Staples Retailing; Household and Personal Products; Transportation; Insurance; Semiconductors and
Semiconductor Equipment; and Utilities.
14
4.2 Audit committee formation and earnings quality
To determine the effect of audit committee formation on earnings quality, we
compare our earnings quality measures between the years before and after each
company‟s audit committee was formed. Panel A of Table 3 shows the results of
matched-pairs t-tests for significant differences for these accruals measures pre and post
audit committee formation.13
For the accruals levels variables derived from the modified
Jones (1991) model, the mean for EQJones(post) (0.1370) is significantly less than the
mean for EQJones(pre) (0.2033). This result suggests that earnings quality calculated
based on the Jones (1991) model is significantly higher in the year after formation of the
audit committees compared to the year before audit committee formation. These results
support our first hypothesis that the formation of an audit committee is associated with an
increase in earnings quality.
[Insert table 3 here]
However, the results for the measure of earnings quality based on the Dechow and
Dichev (2002) model do not show a significant difference between the years before and
after audit committee formation. Correlation coefficients between EQJones and EQDD
are not significant (see Table 5), indicating that these two measures capture quite
different aspects of earnings quality. It is possible that the observed change in EQJones
between the pre and post formation years is due to factors other than the formation of the
audit committee, such as changes in the board and auditor. To control for the impact of
13
A preliminary analysis of the distributions for our earnings quality variables revealed a small number of
extreme outliers as well as positive skewness. Three extreme outliers are excluded from the analysis for
EQJones, while one is excluded for EQDD. Wilcoxon signed ranks tests using the full sample yield the
same inferences, as do sensitivity tests using logged transformations.
15
these potentially correlated omitted variables on the relationship between earnings quality
and audit committee formation, the following pooled regression is estimated:
EQ = a + b0 FORMATION + b1 ROA + b2 BDIND + b3 BDACCEX + b4 BDLEGEX
+ b 5 BDCMEET + b6 BDSIZE + b7 AUDITOR + (5)
FORMATION is a dummy variable that equals zero in the pre formation year
and one in the post formation year. Each of our control variables is measured in both the
pre and post formation years. Return on assets (ROA) is included to control for potential
changes in firm performance. It is possible that the observed increase in earnings quality
could be associated with a change in firm performance. Prior research has shown that the
measurement of discretionary accruals can be problematic for firms with extreme
financial performance (Dechow et al., 1995; Kothari et al., 2005). It is also possible that
changes to the board of directors or company auditor occurring at the same time that the
audit committees were formed could be associated with the increase in earnings quality.
Hence, we include controls for board independence (BDIND), size (BDSIZE), accounting
expertise (BDACCEX), legal expertise (BDLEGEX), meetings per year (BDMEET), and
auditor quality (AUDITOR) for both the pre and post audit committee formation years.
Results of these pooled regressions are shown in Panel B of Table 3. The results
indicate that audit committee formation remains significantly associated with EQJones
when these other potential explanations are controlled. The negative coefficient on
FORMATION indicates that when this variable equals one (the post audit committee
formation year), EQJones is lower; thus indicating less earnings management and hence
16
higher earnings quality. ROA and BDMEET are also significantly negatively associated
with EQJones. None of these variables are significantly correlated with EQDD.14
Our EQJones results support those of Wild (1994) who finds a significant increase
in the market reaction to earnings reports released after the formation of the audit
committee. However they are inconsistent with the results of Jeon et al. (2004) who find
no significant decrease in earnings management for Korean firms after they established
audit committees. A potential reason for the inconsistency between our results and those
of Jeon et al. is the different legal environments between Korea and Australia. Their
sample included a majority that were required by Korean government law to establish an
audit committee. The period of study for our paper was prior to the mandatory
requirement for audit committee formation by large Australian listed companies, which
came into effect on 1 January 2003. Companies that form audit committees voluntarily,
not because of a government requirement, are likely to be more effective at constraining
earnings management and therefore improving earnings quality. This is because they
have other incentives to ensure their audit committees operate effectively, which also
drive the decision to voluntarily form an audit committee.
4.3 Audit committee characteristics and earnings quality
Table 4 provides the descriptive statistics for the variables used in the tests of
association between audit committee characteristics and earnings quality (H2) as well as
several control variables relevant to this association. The mean and median values for
EQJones are similar to those reported by Davidson et al. (2005) for their absolute
14
Extreme outliers are excluded for these tests. Results of sensitivity tests using logged transformations of
our EQ variables yield the same inferences about the significance relationship between audit committee
formation and EQJones.
17
discretionary accruals measure that is based on the same cross-sectional modified Jones
model that we use. We exclude several outliers for EQJones and EQDD from our primary
analysis and also report results of sensitivity analysis using logged transformations of our
earnings quality measures.
Overall, the descriptive statistics indicate that there is considerable variation in the
audit committee variables for the sample companies. The mean proportion of independent
directors on the audit committee is 0.53. Prior US studies such as Yang and Krishnan
(2005) provide evidence that audit committees in the United States have much higher
proportions of independent directors, which reflects the greater degree of audit committee
regulation. Our measures of ACMEET and ACSIZE are slightly higher than those
reported by Davidson et al. (2005). This is most likely due to the larger average size of
the firms in our sample and the exclusion of firms without an audit committee from our
sample. Descriptive statistics for full board level variables that correspond to our audit
committee variables are also shown in Table 4. Davidson et al. (2005) and Koh et al.
(2007) found board independence to impact earnings quality. It is likely that some of the
other board level variables are also associated with earnings quality. The remaining
variables in Table 4 are controls for auditor quality, leverage, firm size, losses and
operating cycle.
[Insert table 4 here]
Dechow and Dichev (2002) identify several innate factors that affect accruals
quality: firm size, the incidence of losses, operating cycle, and volatility of operating cash
flows and sales. Our sample includes firms ranging in size from total assets of $3.94M to
$84.96B, with a mean of $1.28B. The distribution of total assets is highly positively
18
skewed and we therefore take a log transformation of this variable (LNTA). LOSS
equals 1 if income for the year is less than zero, 0 otherwise. 108 of the sample firms
report a loss in 2001. Length of operating cycle is measured as 360/(sales/average
account receivables). Operating cycles for our sample firms range between 0 and 1050
days, with a mean of 65.68 days. This variable is highly positively skewed and we
therefore use a log transformation for our hypotheses tests (LNOPCYCLE). We do not
include controls for volatility of operating cash flows or sales since we are unable to
obtain a sufficient time-series of data to calculate these measures for the majority of our
sample firms.
Table 5 shows Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients between the
earnings quality, audit committee, full board and control variables. For EQJones,
Pearson correlations show significant positive relationships with LOSS and LNOC, while
Spearman correlations show significant relationships with ACACCEX (+), BDIND (-),
BDACCEX (+), BDSIZE (-) and LOSS (+). The Spearman correlations between
EQJones and both ACACCEX and BDACCEX are positive rather than negative as
expected. This result appears to suggest that accounting expertise could be related to an
increase rather than a decrease in earnings management. When we use a log
transformation of EQJones, Pearson correlations with ACACCEX, BDACCEX, LOSS
and LNOC are all positive and significant, while BDSIZE is significantly negatively
associated with EQJones. Overall, these results do not support the relations between
EQJones and the audit committee characteristics predicted in H2.
[Insert table 5 here]
19
When we consider EQDD, Pearson correlations show significant negative
relationships between this measure of earnings quality and ACACCEX, ACSIZE,
BDSIZE, LNTA, and a significant positive relation with LOSS. Spearman correlations
support these results and also show a significant positive relation between EQDD and
LNOC. When we use a log transformation of EQDD, the same variables remain
significant. These results indicate initial support for the predicted H2 relations between
earnings quality and audit committee size and accounting expertise.
Not surprisingly, most of our audit committee and full board level variables are
very highly correlated; with the correlation coefficients for the independence and
expertise measures ranging between 0.69 and 0.78. Further, audit committee size is
significantly positively correlated with full board size and firm size. Interestingly, the
two measures of audit committee expertise (ACACCEX and ACLEGEX) are
significantly negatively correlated with each other. This suggests that the two forms of
expertise are substitutes for each other.
We use the following regression model to test our second hypothesis that earnings
quality is positively associated with audit committee independence, expertise, activity
and size. EQ denotes the two earnings quality measures described above (EQJones and
EQDD). This model is estimated on our sample of listed Australian companies in 2001:
EQ = a + b1 ACIND + b2 ACACCEX + b3 ACLEGEX + b4 ACMEET +
b5 ACSIZE + b6 AUDITOR + b7 LNTA + b8 LEV + b9 LOSS + b10LNOC +
(6)
In addition, we run the above model substituting a series of industry dummy
variables for LNOC. This allows us to use a larger sample since we were able to collect
20
data about industry membership for all of our sample firms, while we were only able to
obtain operating cycle data for 284 of our sample firms. We rerun this model controlling
for full board independence, expertise, activity and size. Several of these variables are
significantly positively correlated with their corresponding audit committee measures and
that is why we exclude them from equation 6. However, some of these board variables
are significantly associated with our EQ measures and we therefore attempt to control for
their impact by including them in a sensitivity test of this model.
Table 6 shows the results from OLS regressions of equation 6. None of our audit
committee variables are significantly associated with EQJones. Similarly, Davidson et al.
(2005) report insignificant coefficients for ACMEET and ACSIZE, and mixed results for
ACIND depending on how it is measured.15
Our results indicate that EQDD is
significantly negatively correlated with ACACCEX indicating that this measure of
earnings quality is higher when there are a greater proportion of audit committee
members with accounting expertise. This result is consistent with Dhaliwal et al. (2006)
who find a significant positive relation between accounting expertise and accruals
quality. Our other audit committee variables are not significantly related to EQDD.16
[Insert table 6 here]
When logged transformations of our EQ variables are used, EQDD remains
significantly negatively associated with ACACCEX, while EQJones is significantly
15
These authors proxy audit committee independence using a dichotomous non-executive director measure
and find mixed results depending on whether they code this variable with a value of one if the audit
committee is comprised entirely of non-executive directors or a majority. In sensitivity tests, their
significant results for this variable become insignificant when they remove non-executive directors that had
related party transactions. 16
We also examine a summary measure of the overall strength of the sample companies' audit committees.
This variable (AC_GOV_SCORE) is calculated as the sum of each of the audit committee dichotomous
variables discussed above. There is a significant negative Pearson correlation between AC_GOV_SCORE
and EQDD. However, this relation is not significant in a multivariate context.
21
positively associated with this variable. When we add the full board variables to our
models, the relationship between EQDD and ACACCEX becomes insignificant and the
remainder of our results are qualitatively the same. Given the high correlation between
our board and audit committee accounting expertise variables (r = 0.77), it is difficult to
reliably interpret this result. We therefore rerun our EQDD models with BDACCEX
instead of ACACCEX and find that BDACCEX is not significantly related to EQDD.
This result suggests that it is accounting expertise at the audit committee level rather than
the full board level that positively impacts earnings quality.
The results for control variables shown in table 6 indicate significant associations
between EQDD and LNTA, and between EQJones and LNTA and AUDITOR, as well as
some mixed results for LEV, LOSS and LNOC. The significant positive relations that we
observe between EQJones and ACACCEX and AUDITOR are contrary to expectations.
Several of the industry dummy variables are significant for EQJones, which captures
variation in the exercise of discretionary accruals across industries.
Overall, H2 is generally not supported, with the exception of audit committee
accounting expertise when the EQDD measure of earnings quality is considered. The
weight of evidence suggests that the higher the proportion of accounting expertise a
company has on its audit committee, the lower its accrual estimation errors.
5. Conclusions
This research investigates the association between audit committees and earnings
quality in Australia. The time period for the research is selected to avoid the confounding
effects of mandatory audit committee requirements introduced for Australian companies
in 2003. We hypothesise that the formation of an audit committee is associated with an
22
increase in earnings quality (H1); and the independence, expertise, activity, and size of an
audit committee are positively associated with earnings quality (H2). Overall, the results
provide support for H1, but not H2.
Several conclusions can be drawn from our results. First, we find that a
discretionary accruals measure based on the Jones (1991) earnings management model,
decreases significantly in the year following audit committee formation. Since measures
based on this model are generally characterised as capturing managements‟ intent to
manipulate earnings, our results imply that the establishment of an audit committee is an
effective way to reduce earnings management, and hence improve the quality of earnings.
When we capture accrual estimation errors using measures based on Dechow and
Dichev‟s (2002) model, we do not find an increase in earnings quality following audit
committee formation. This disparity in results between the two types of earnings quality
measures highlights the potential impact of audit committees. While improved quality of
financial reporting practices has been widely cited as a major benefit of audit committees,
this result appears to indicate that this improvement most likely occurs through a
reduction in earnings manipulations rather than lower accrual estimation errors deriving
from management lapses or environmental uncertainties. A caveat on these results is the
relatively small sample size available for tests of H1.
Second, when we capture earnings quality using an accrual estimation errors
measure, we find that audit committee accounting expertise is associated with higher
quality earnings. However we do not find the same association when we capture earnings
quality using an earnings management measure. Indeed, we find some evidence of higher
earnings management for firms with a greater proportion of qualified accountants on their
23
audit committees. Future research that explores this result further may be able to shed
some light on this unexpected finding. A potential limitation of our research relates to the
endogeneity of audit committees. The characteristics of audit committees are not
necessarily independent of earnings quality. Companies with higher quality earnings
may be more likely to choose audit committee characteristics that signal the strength of
their financial reporting system (Engel, 2005).
Overall, our results highlight the multifaceted nature of earnings quality and the
potential for audit committees to impact it. As we have found, different measures of
earnings quality can lead to different results and inferences. Each of the available models
of earnings quality has its own particular limitations and these should be considered when
interpreting our results. Additional research that separates out the intentional and
unintentional components of the accrual estimation errors would help to further clarify
which aspects of earnings quality audit committees tend to improve.
24
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27
Table 1
Summary of sample sizes used for hypotheses tests
Top 500 ASX listed companies in 2001 500
Less,
-Companies without audit committees 37
-Audit committee existence could not be determined 4
- Banks, trusts and foreign companies 37
- Diversified financials and real estate 15
- Companies from small four digit GICS industry groups 74 167
333
Less, Complete annual report data for 2001 not available 24
Sample for audit committee characteristics tests (H2) 309
Less,
-Audit committee formed prior to 1993
-Listed with audit committee in place
-Complete annual report data for pre/post audit
committee formation years not available
80
133
24
237
Sample for audit committee formation tests (H1) 72
28
Table 2
Panel A: Sample of 309 companies used for audit committee characteristics tests by
industry group
Industry group Number Percentage
Capital goods 33 10.7
Commercial services and supplies 21 6.8
Energy 20 6.5
Food, beverage and tobacco 29 9.4
Healthcare equipment and services 18 5.8
Hotels, restaurants and leisure 14 4.5
Materials 71 23.0
Media 20 6.5
Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology 16 5.2
Retailing 21 6.8
Software and services 25 8.1
Technology hardware and equipment 10 3.2
Telecommunication services 11 3.5
Total 309 100
Panel B: Number of audit committees formed each year by 72 ASX listed companies
that formed their audit committees following the 1993 requirements for audit
committee disclosures.
Year of audit committee formation Number of companies
1993 6
1994 14
1995 12
1996 15
1997 4
1998 9
1999 6
2000 6
Total 72
29
Table 3
Comparisons of earnings quality for the years pre and post audit committee
formation for 72 ASX listed companies
Panel A: Matched-pairs t-tests
Variable N Min. Max. Median Mean Std.
Dev.
t
EQJones(pre) 69 0.01 0.83 0.1209 0.2033 0.2046 3.058**
EQJones(post) 69 0.00 0.83 0.0923 0.1370 0.1444
EQDD(pre) 71 0.00 0.50 0.0561 0.0906 0.1047 -0.300
EQDD(post) 71 0.00 0.72 0.0580 0.0961 0.1199
Panel B: Pooled regression results Variable Pred. sign EQJones EQDD
Intercept 0.284
(4.187)**
0.098
(2.220)*
FORMATION
-
-0.066
(-2.254)*
0.007
(0.350)
ROA - -0.160
(-2.512)**
-0.047
(-1.121)
BDIND - 0.080
(1.276)
0.047
(1.123)
BDACCEX - -0.002
(-0.018)
0.025
(0.421)
BDLEGEX - 0.103
(0.986)
0.060
(0.881)
BDMEET - -0.006
(-2.230)*
-0.003
(-1.494)
BDSIZE - -0.003
(-0.390)
-0.002
(-0.358)
AUDITOR - -0.052
(-1.647)
0.007
(0.363)
Adjusted R2 0.098 -0.006
F statistic 2.867** 0.901
N 138 142
* significant at the 0.05 level, ** significant at the 0.01 level (p-values are one-tailed)
EQJones = Cross sectional earnings quality proxy from modified Jones (1991) model (i.e., absolute value
of abnormal accruals)
EQDD = Cross sectional earnings quality proxy from Dechow and Dichev (2002) adjusted for Jones (1991)
model variables (i.e., absolute value of regression residuals)
FORMATION: 1 = year after audit committee formation; 0 = year before audit committee formation
ROA = Return on assets calculated as operating profit after tax scaled by average total assets
BDIND = Proportion of independent directors on the board
BDSIZE = Number of board members
BDACCEX = Proportion of directors on the board with accounting qualifications
BDLEGEX = Proportion of directors on the board with legal qualifications
BDMEET = Number of board meetings per annum
AUDITOR: 1 = Big 5 or 6 auditor; 0 = Non-big 5 or 6 auditor
30
Table 4
Descriptive statistics for 309 Australian listed companies in 2001
Panel A Continuous variables
Variable Minimum Maximum Median Mean Std Dev Skewness
EQJones 0.00 2.66 0.09 0.18 0.25 4.32
EQDD 0.00 1.29 0.05 0.10 0.15 4.83
ACIND 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.53 0.34 -0.12
ACACCEX 0.00 1.00 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.74
ACLEGEX 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.13 0.20 1.49
ACMEET 0.00 13.00 3.00 3.06 1.60 1.74
ACSIZE 2.00 7.00 3.00 3.18 1.00 1.16
BDIND 0.00 1.00 0.40 0.42 0.25 0.04
BDACCEX 0.00 0.80 0.20 0.22 0.18 0.65
BDLEGEX 0.00 0.50 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.99
BDMEET 3.00 33.00 11.00 11.34 4.28 0.88
BDSIZE 3.00 17.00 6.00 6.33 2.23 1.55
TA ($M) 3.94 84,961.00 138.28 1,276.30 6,020.56 10.60
LNTA 15.19 25.17 18.74 19.01 1.77 0.55
LEV 0.00 2.52 0.47 0.46 0.26 2.34
OPCYCLE 1.00 1050.00 48.00 65.68 96.94 6.32
LNOC 0.00 6.96 3.87 3.72 1.02 -0.95
Panel B Dichotomous variables
Variable Frequency of 1s Frequency of 0s
AUDITOR 247 (79.9%) 62 (20.1%)
LOSS 108 (34.9%) 201 (65.1%)
EQJones = Cross sectional earnings quality proxy from modified Jones (1991) model (i.e., absolute value
of abnormal accruals)
EQDD = Cross sectional earnings quality proxy from Dechow and Dichev (2002) model adjusted for Jones
(1991) model variables (i.e., absolute value of regression residuals)
ACIND = Proportion of independent directors on audit committee
ACACCEX = Proportion of directors on audit committee with accounting qualifications
ACLEGEX = Proportion of directors on audit committee with legal qualifications
ACMEET = Number of audit committee meetings for the year
ACSIZE = Number of audit committee members
BDIND = Proportion of independent directors on the board
BDACCEX = Proportion of directors on the board with accounting qualifications
BDLEGEX = Proportion of directors on the board with legal qualifications
BDMEET = Number of board meetings for the year
BDSIZE = Number of board members
TA = Total assets
LNTA = Natural log of total assets
LEV = Total liabilities divided by total assets
OPCYCLE = Operating cycle measured as 360/(sales/average account receivables)
LNOC = Natural log of operating cycle, measured as 360/(sales/average account receivables)
AUDITOR: 1 = Big 5 or 6 auditor; 0 = Non-big 5 or 6 auditor
LOSS: 1 = net income for the year is less than zero; 0 otherwise
31
Table 5
Pearson and Spearman Correlations for 309 Australian listed companies in 2001 (Pearson correlations are above diagonal; p
values are shown in parenthesis)
EQJones EQDD ACInd ACAccEx ACLegEx ACMeet ACSize BDInd BDAccEx BDLegEx BDMeet BDSize LNTA Lev Auditor Loss LNOC
EQJones - 0.01
(0.818)
-0.05
(0.370)
0.06
(0.319)
-0.05
(0.343)
-0.07
(0.195)
-0.01
(0.226)
-0.08
(0.148)
0.09
(0.119)
-0.05
(0.369)
0.04
(0.537)
-0.10
(0.079)
-0.09
(0.114)
0.06
(0.286)
0.10
(0.071)
0.11*
(0.047)
0.13*
(0.035)
EQDD 0.07 (0.127)
- 0.03 (0.560)
-0.14* (0.015)
-0.04 (0.468)
-0.03 (0.567)
-0.11* (0.048)
0.05 (0.347)
-0.11 (0.053)
0.00 (0.998)
0.01 (0.802)
-0.15** (0.008)
-0.24** (0.000)
-0.03 (0.632)
-0.05 (0.394)
0.17** (0.003)
0.04 (0.522)
ACInd -0.07 (0.252)
-0.02 (0.772)
- -0.10 (0.09)
-0.07 (0.235)
0.19** (0.001)
0.03 (0.668)
0.77** (0.000)
-0.14* (0.018)
-0.18** (0.002)
0.07 (0.252)
0.16** (0.006)
0.18** (0.002)
-0.01 (0.899)
0.12* (0.039)
-0.09 (0.108)
-0.05 (0.423)
ACAccEx 0.13* (0.025)
-0.12* (0.043)
-0.13* (0.018)
- -0.20** (0.000)
-0.03 (0.554)
-0.10 (0.082)
-0.12* (0.042)
0.77** (0.000)
-0.13* (0.024)
0.05 (0.356)
-0.03 (0.619)
-0.00 (0.983)
0.08 (0.175)
-0.12* (0.029)
-0.02 (0.782)
-0.06 (0.290)
ACLegEx 0.01 (0.858)
0.01 (0.943)
-0.07 (0.213)
-0.18** (0.002)
- 0.04 (0.534)
-0.05 (0.391)
-0.12* (0.040)
-0.17** (0.003)
-0.69** (0.000)
-0.05 (0.396)
0.10 (0.075)
0.16** (0.004)
-0.02 (0.788)
0.04 (0.499)
-0.01 (0.867)
0.05 (0.414)
ACMeet -0.07 (0.242)
-0.04 (0.503)
0.20** (0.000)
-0.01 (0.824)
0.09 (0.117)
- 0.21** (0.000)
-0.04 (0.540)
-0.04 (0.540)
0.04 (0.477)
0.15** (0.008)
0.34** (0.000)
0.39** (0.000)
0.10 (0.083)
0.15** (0.009)
-0.20** (0.001)
-0.04 (0.284)
ACSize -0.08 (0.170)
-0.12* (0.043)
0.03 (0.547)
-0.07 (0.250)
0.04 (0.484)
0.16** (0.004)
- 0.03 (0.633)
0.03 (0.633)
-0.06 (0.294)
0.09 (0.110)
0.33** (0.000)
0.23** (0.000)
0.12* (0.042)
0.06 (0.315)
-0.13* (0.028)
0.11 (0.059)
BDInd -0.11* (0.045)
-0.02 (0.690)
0.77** (0.000)
-0.14* (0.018)
-0.10 (0.074)
0.22** (0.000)
0.12* (0.035)
- -0.16** (0.005)
-0.15** (0.009)
0.07 (0.223)
0.18** (0.002)
0.26** (0.000)
0.01 (0.928)
0.18** (0.001)
-0.10 (0.096)
-0.01 (0.888)
BDAccEx 0.13* (0.021)
-0.04 (0.498)
-0.16** (0.006)
0.78** (0.000)
-0.13 (0.020)
-0.01 (0.900)
0.07 (0.258)
-0.16** (0.006)
- -0.15** (0.008)
-0.12* (0.043)
-0.12* (0.043)
-0.04 (0.519)
0.06 (0.323)
-0.14* (0.015)
0.02 (0.775)
-0.07 (0.262)
BDLegEx 0.02 (0.724)
-0.00 (0.974)
-0.16** (0.005)
-0.12* (0.035)
0.70** (0.000)
0.09 (0.115)
-0.01 (0.860)
-0.13* (0.027)
-0.11* (0.045)
- -0.01 (0.883)
-0.01 (0.883)
0.09 (0.106)
0.09 (0.132)
-0.02 (0.676)
0.04 (0.528)
0.05 (0.428)
BDMeet 0.01 (0.905)
-0.01 (0.917)
0.10 (0.074)
0.07 (0.252)
-0.03 (0.617)
0.22** (0.000)
0.13* (0.018)
0.11 (0.063)
0.11 (0.051)
-0.05 (0.405)
- 0.01 (0.899)
0.09 (0.132)
0.11* (0.046)
-0.01 (0.819)
0.04 (0.535)
-0.01 (0.824)
BDSize -0.13* (0.027)
-0.19** (0.001)
0.15** (0.009)
-0.01 (0.861)
0.14* (0.012)
0.28** (0.000)
0.36** (0.000)
0.17** (0.002)
-0.09 (0.134)
0.05 (0.364)
0.03 (0.565)
- 0.26** (0.000)
0.12* (0.030)
0.21** (0.000)
-0.17** (0.003)
0.04 (0.284)
LNTA -0.09 (0.114)
-0.21** (0.000)
0.16** (0.005)
0.01 (0.852)
0.18** (0.002)
0.43** (0.000)
0.25** (0.000)
0.25** (0.000)
-0.00 (0.953)
0.12* (0.031)
0.12* (0.032)
0.52** (0.000)
- .40** (0.000)
0.34** (0.000)
-0.32** (0.000)
-0.04 (0.480)
Lev 0.03 (0.567)
-0.00 (0.972)
-0.03 (0.636)
0.07 (0.209)
0.06 (0.268)
0.11 (0.054)
0.15** (0.008)
-0.00 (0.950)
0.07 (0.229)
0.09 (0.123)
0.16** (0.005)
0.16* (0.005)
0.42** (0.000)
- 0.14* (0.016)
-0.18** (0.002)
-0.04 (0.494)
Auditor 0.09 (0.098)
-0.06 (0.314)
0.11* (0.047)
-0.11 (0.055)
0.06 (0.287)
0.16** (0.006)
0.10 (0.089)
0.17** (0.003)
-0.10 (0.091)
0.01 (0.898)
-0.01 (0.907)
0.23** (0.000)
0.34** (0.000)
0.14* (0.018)
- -0.09 (0.113)
-0.04 (0.475)
Loss 0.18** (0.002)
0.19** (0.001)
-0.09 (0.123)
-0.02 (0.703)
0.01 (0.901)
-0.22** (0.000)
-0.11* (0.046)
-0.09 (0.117)
-0.01 (0.901)
0.05 (0.353)
-0.01 (0.904)
-0.20** (0.000)
-0.34** (0.000)
-0.17** (0.002)
-0.09 (0.113)
- 0.21** (0.000)
LNOC 0.08 (0.173)
0.13* (0.025)
-0.04 (0.501)
0.01 (0.823)
0.01 (0.850)
-0.10 (0.109)
0.09 (0.140)
-0.03 (0.679)
0.06 (0.314)
0.01 (0.833)
-0.02 (0.748)
-0.02 (0.780)
-0.09 (0.138)
-0.03 (0.579)
-0.07 (0.222)
0.19** (0.002)
-
* significant at the 0.05 level; ** significant at the 0.01 level; Variable definitions are provided in table 4.
32
Table 6
Regression estimates of earnings quality variables on audit committee and control
variables for 309 ASX listed companies in 2001 Variable Pred.
sign
EQJones EQDD
Intercept ? 0.295
(1.902)
0.403
(3.304)**
0.286
(4.391)**
0.305
(3.925)**
ACIND - 0.006
(0.146)
-0.034
(-1.207)
0.003
(0.169)
0.014
(0.795)
ACACCEX - 0.045
(1.049)
0.031
(0.965)
-0.038
(-2.101)*
-0.040
(-1.916)*
ACLEGEX - -0.016
(-0.257)
-0.001
(-0.022)
-0.015
(-0.554)
-0.012
(-0.406)
ACMEET - -0.002
(-0.283)
-0.002
(-0.293)
0.006
(1.609)
0.003
(0.859)
ACSIZE - 0.006
(0.496)
0.005
(0.554)
-0.004
(-0.824)
-0.010
(-1.591)
AUDITOR - 0.080
(2.350)*
0.070
(2.765)**
0.001
(0.100)
0.006
(0.349)
LNTA - -0.019
(-2.140)*
-0.021
(-2.930)**
-0.012
(-3.357)**
-0.012
(-2.616)**
LEV + 0.101
(1.545)
0.015
(0.309)
0.063
(2.310)*
0.052
(1.640)
LOSS + 0.039
(1.379)
0.042
(2.025)*
0.019
(1.606)
0.012
(0.904)
LNOC + 0.023
(1.845)*
- 0.001
(0.285)
-
Capital goods ? - -0.022
(-0.379)
- -0.019
(-0.534)
Commercial, services and
supplies
? - 0.017
(0.285)
- 0.007
(0.167)
Energy ? - 0.054
(0.855)
- -0.017
(-0.419)
Food, beverage and
tobacco
? - 0.368
(6.302)**
- -0.023
(-0.629)
Healthcare equipment
and services
? - 0.012
(0.189)
- 0.004
(0.096)
Hotels, restaurants and
leisure
? - -0.014
(-0.217)
- -0.025
(-0.592)
Materials ? - 0.022
(0.410)
- -0.005
(-0.142)
Media ? - 0.242
(3.861)**
- -0.017
(-0.433)
Pharmaceuticals and
biotechnology
? - -0.037
(-0.559)
- 0.033
(0.780)
Retailing ? - -0.000
(-0.001)
- -0.008
(-0.203)
Software and services ? - 0.121
(2.029)*
- 0.031
(0.798)
Telecommunication
services
? - 0.423
(6.120)**
- 0.082
(1.861)
Adjusted R2 0.033 0.424 0.050 0.073
F statistic 1.977* 11.703** 2.469** 2.132**
N 283 306 282 305
* significant at the 0.05 level; ** significant at the 0.01 level (p-values are one-tailed when direction is as
predicted, otherwise two-tailed). Variable definitions are provided in table 4.