Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Jon Peddie ResearchJPR Focuses on visualization, graphics, and forms of reality.
We provide consulting and market research, are advisors to industry leaders and investors.
We offer bi-weekly report, various digital technology market studies.
We also do product testing and benchmarking.
And conduct and participate at Conferences.
The Business of Multimedia and Visual Magic
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
≠ does not equal ThisThisJust because something is stuck on your head
Augmented Realityhas no relationship to VR
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
The Realities – Resist Marketing
AlternateAnotherArtificialAugmentedBlendedCognitiveDigitalDigitally mediatedDimensionalDiminishedExtendedExternalFalse
HybridImmersive (Tactical, Strategic, Narrative, and Spatial)InteractiveMagicMediatedMergedMirroredMixedModulatedPerceptiveProjectedPrevisualization
Spatial augmented reality (SAR)SecondSimulatedSpatial-augmentedSuper visionSyntheticTransVicariousVirtual augmented realityVirtual EnvironmentVisualwindow-on-the-world
Immersive reality is a multidiscipline multi-labeled and massively confusing collection of technologies, applications, and opportunities. It, or they, go by many labels.
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Deployment
What’s deployed today: what’s going to be deployed in
the next few years?
Art by Zenka
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Taxonomy of AR
Wearable devices
Helmets
Augmented Reality systems
Non-wearable devices
Mobile devices(Smartphone, tablet)
Head-updisplays
Headsets
Consumer Commercial
Indoors
outdoors
Factory installed
Retro-fit
Consumer Commercial
Indoors
outdoors
Indoors
outdoors
Add-on Integrated
Consumer Commercial
Indoors
outdoors
Indoors
outdoorsoutdoors
Stationary devices(Projectors,TV, PC, etc.)
Contacts
You can get it a lot of ways, and size does fit all
Deployment
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Suppliers by Segment
• Contact lens—7 suppliers or developers
• Helmet—7+ suppliers
• HUD—10+ suppliers
• Smart-glasses• Integrated
• Commercial—26 suppliers• Consumer—17 suppliers
• Add-on—14 suppliers
• Projectors (other than HUD) 3
• Specialized and other—6+ developers or suppliers
Does the word CRAZY come to mind?
Deployment
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
ExamplesHelmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial
Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer
Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lens
Deployment
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
AnnouncedHelmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial
Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer
Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lensBAE systems
Striker APX Labs
Microsoft
Hololens Brilliant Service
Beijing Palo Alto
Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL
BMW Atheer
Mirage
Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp
Ghent
University
Cinoptics
Brother
Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google
C-Thru Cannon
Osterhout Design
Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar
Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega
Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics
Intelligent
Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung
Eveno Eyes On
(Epson)
Shenzhen Topsky
Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony
Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq
Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay
IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam
Laster
Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright
Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1
NVIS QD Laser Telepathy
RideOn Vufine
Six-15 Westunits
Solos
Zeiss
Deployment
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
ShippingHelmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial
Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer
Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lensBAE systems
Striker APX Labs
Microsoft
Hololens Brilliant Service
Beijing Palo Alto
Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL
BMW Atheer
Mirage
Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp
Ghent
University
Cinoptics
Brother
Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google
C-Thru Cannon
Osterhout Design
Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar
Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega
Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics
Intelligent
Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung
Eveno Eyes On
(Epson)
Shenzhen Topsky
Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony
Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq
Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay
IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam
Laster
Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright
Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1
NVIS QD Laser Telepathy
RideOn Vufine
Six-15 Westunits
Solos
Zeiss
Deployment
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Shipping later this year . . .Helmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial
Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer
Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lensBAE systems
Striker APX Labs
Microsoft
Hololens Brilliant Service
Beijing Palo Alto
Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL
BMW Atheer
Mirage
Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp
Ghent
University
Cinoptics
Brother
Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google
C-Thru Cannon
Osterhout Design
Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar
Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega
Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics
Intelligent
Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung
Eveno Eyes On
(Epson)
Shenzhen Topsky
Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony
Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq
Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay
IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam
Laster
Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright
Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1
NVIS QD Laser Telepathy
RideOn Vufine
Six-15 Westunits
Solos
Zeiss
Deployment
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Market FantasiesFantasiesForecasts
Hardware M units 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
HMD Units Sold (IHS) 0.05 0.13 0.30 2.30 6.60 0 0 0
HMD Unit Sold (Yano Research) 0.15 0.45 1.60 7.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0
Google Glass Units Sold (BI Insider) 0 0 0.83 2.47 3.74 10.62 21.15 0
Smart Glasses Sold (Berg Research) 0 0.10 0 0 7.68 0.00 0.00 0
AR Wearable Devices Sold (Markets & Markets) 0.92 12.20 16.10 21.20 27.90 36.80 48.50 0
HMD Units Sold (Gartner) 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.00 0
JPR (Grey Hair Perspective) 0.35 0.80 1.20 1.80 2.40 3.00 4.50 7.50
Pick the forecast you like best – alternative facts
Market
In 2019 ABI Research believes AR will grow to reach 53% of a $57 billion market
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Augmented Reality markets $90 billion in 2020
AR Hardware (tMkt)
aCommerce (tMkt)
AR Data
AR Voice
AR Film/TV (tMkt)
Enterprise AR
AR adspend
AR Consumer
AR Games (tMkt)AR Parks
Source: Digi-Capital, 2016
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Start 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Companies 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Companies
Project
Glass lanuched
Esquire Magazine
features augmented reality
Hololens
Pokemon Go
Too many suppliers chasing too few customers - no market can sustain this many companies
Market
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Consumers vs. Industrial/Military/Scientific
So far the AR market has no consumer wearable segment –first products in late 2017 – 2018.
HUDs are an exception and non-wearable.
For consumers to accept AR, it has to be inconspicuous, and non-geeky – nothing more than a pair of sun or prescription glasses. Helmets are the exception.
Market
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Siz
e,
We
igh
t, C
os
t, a
nd
Po
we
r
Augmented Reality Displays
Smart-glasses
Contact-lens
AR usage (M)
M users
Market
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Importance of vision to the success of AR
Vision
AR is much more complicated than VR because it merges the real world - Jon Peddie 2014
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Seeing ARVision
VideoCombiner
Computer generated image
Light-blocking display
CCamera
Real world view
Real world view
Optical see-through Video see-through
Computer generated image
Transparent optical combiner
CCamera
Positioning and Recording system
Cloud
Projector
This could be a smartphone
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Full Scale AR Requires Vision CaptureVision
Type/Feature Headphone Mic Display Camera
Audio Yes Maybe No No
Data Maybe Maybe Yes Maybe
Data & Location (& HUD) Yes Yes Yes Probably
Environmentally aware optical
see thru Yes Yes Yes Yes
Video see thru Yes Yes Yes Yes
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Camera Contributions to AR
Pose – where exactly is the camera looking
Capture – personal black box
Accurate registration of Pokemon, er, data to real world
Augmentation of rate of change and attitude data
SLAM needs lots of accurate markerless data points – from a camera (preferably three cameras)
Vision
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Cameras
Where to mount, and power all those AR cameras
• 3D sensing (structured light and/or TOF)
• IR
• Rear view
• Wide FOV if video see-through
And remember, one size does not fit all - AR is for everyone, and most are different
Vision
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Important challenges and trends that will play a major role in determining
the rate of growth of the market
Challenges
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Dangers of AR
• 60% think smartphones make them safer, and take more risks because they rely on their phone to keep them safe.
• Over 55% advanced internet users would like to use AR glasses to light up dark surroundings in order to highlight potentially dangerous objects, and/or people approaching.
• Change how the environment looks (no trash, graffiti, signs)
Challenges
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Seeing things that aren’t thereChallenges
Risk of information overload – learning how to mitigate
What the terminator saw What you might see
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Potential problems
• Biggest problem now involves coming up with designs that are not conspicuous (why Google Glass failed).• AR has a foundation in science, but not in commerce (but coming rapidly). Many
“experts” and reporters look at something from ODG or Atheer – and say, “look, consumer AR” – but nobody would wear something like that going to lunch with a friend.
• What are the biggest problems does AR solve? • Ignorance (when you can’t recall a name or fact without a computer)• Stupidity – I lost my way, where am I?• Personal “Black Box” – you could record every living moment of your life. Everything
you’re looking at – like being mugged, harassed by a cop, being hit by another car, etc. You become The “Fair Witness, described by Robert A. Heinlein, “In Stranger in a Strange Land.”
Challenges
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Additional information from
bone-connection audio
transducers
Forward facing tracking
and recording 4K
cameras
Eye-
tracking
camera
High-resolution
Transparent
displays
6DOF Position sensing, tracking, and
location sensors
Communications
Directional
microphones
Depth sensing
sensors
IR sensors
Ambient light sensors
Batteries
And They aren’t easy to make
And more . . .
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
Benefits of AR
Instant expertise. Could we download whatever skills we wanted, needed?
Such capability, assuming one was willing to do the actual work, could eliminate the mismatch between demand for, and availability of, specialized skilled personal.
It could also eliminate the time to go to (or have come to you) needed help. A new expression of instant gratification.
Challenges
Jon
Pedd
ie R
esea
rch
The AR market is growing in industry and scientific, and will be huge in consumer
However, AR is very difficult technically, and challenging esthetically for the commercial market
Image sensors, ISPs, VPUs, are critical to the success of AR, have to be very high resolution, and very fast, and not expensive or use much power - no problem, right.
Two promo items (now’s the time to head to the rest room)
• Buy my book, Augmented Reality: Where We All Will Live (http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783319545011)
• Buy our report: Visual Processing Unit Report
• Other resources: http://www.augmentedreality.org/ , http://www.arglassesguide.com/
Summary