WeatherManager Weekly
Welcome to this week’s WeatherManager, your weekly journal for
ideas and developments in the weather risk market, brought to you by
eWeatherRisk.
The articles talk about the volatile weather with too much rain early in
most of the Midwest and into Texas and then devastating heat and
drought on row crops as well as peanuts where some had been calling
for a cool summer. This summer’s heat indices have been very high
and our livestock heat index protection a real winner. Ask about that
for next year. Normally the developing El Nino suggests wetter and
cooler conditions in the Southern Plains and South and dry and warm
conditions out West along with drought in the Northern Plains into
Canada for this Fall and Winter and a difficult 2016 growing season.
Recommendation. With late planted crops, focus is on continued
wetness as well as early freeze and lack of growing degree days where
crops were planted late or are behind from the cool summer. Consider
the caveat about the flip to a La Nina and buy heat and/or drought
hedges for 2016 this Fall and not wait until the forecasts tilt that way
and prices increase for next summer in the Belt to protect against 2012
conditions as well as lost energy, snow removal and salt sales this
winter.
Weather hedging is a necessary part of any risk management strategy
as weather poses the biggest danger to crop yields and revenue, and a
hedge can provide great protection to complement your crop insurance
and marketing decisions as well as protect many commercial risks.
Issue 242
August 13, 2015
Corn crop decimated by drought –
Cantón, VA (8/5/2015)
Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)
WeatherManager Weekly Current Headlines
Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)
8/12/2014 – 8/13/2015
8/12/2012 – 8/13/2015
Dirt Like Concrete Choking U.S. Corn as Dry Spell Damaging
Crops – “It’s almost like concrete out there,” said Pitstick, 30, a
fourth-generation farmer who grows corn and soybeans on about
8,000 acres (3,237 hectares) near Maple Park. “If we don’t get
any rains in the next 10 days, we’re looking at 15 to 25 percent
total crop loss.”
Despite unfavorable weather, are any of the crops persevering? –
Things have really changed over the last few months, things
have gone from too wet and we couldn’t’ get in the field and
now for the last 4 or 5 weeks we have been on the dry side,” said
Burbrink.
Angelina County farmers suffer after extreme weather changes –
Angelina County and several East Texas counties voted to enact
a burn ban for the next 90 days in Tuesday's Commissioner's
court meeting. It's a complete 360 from the disaster declaration
of a little over a month ago.
High Plains cotton still late but catching up some with hot
weather – Cotton in the Texas South Plains and Rolling Plains
typically remained two to four weeks behind in development,
but current weather patterns are helping, said cotton
agronomists.
Hot weather affecting crops in Bulloch Co. – Peanut plants in
Greg Sikes' fields need another month to grow this year. They'd
normally be ready by this time of the year.
Too much rain ruined farmer's late season crops, could effect
local economy – While water is necessary for all living and
growing things, for Vernon County farmers this growing season,
water could provide too much of a good thing.
For First Time in 110 Years, Firefighting Costs Exceed 50
Percent of U.S. Forest Service Budget – Fighting fires in
drought-stricken California and across the West Coast has
become more and more costly, according to a new report by the
U.S. Forest Service.
Current Drought Update
Commentary: The upper map is the 3 month US Drought
Monitor Class Change. The Pacific Northwest continues to
worsen with the hot and dry conditions from Spring into late
July. Improvements continue in the Rockies and Mid Atlantic
into New England. The Southeast worsened in the face of very
hot temperatures with dryness developing along the Gulf into
East Texas.
The lower map is the Drought Monitor as of last Thursday.
Moderate to exceptional drought maintained its hold on the
West with extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest. Hot and
dry conditions expanded the areas of dryness and moderate
drought to the Southeast, East TX and LA and even into WI,
MN, Northern Iowa and parts of the Plains.
Recommendation: Drought and heat hedges should be
evaluated for all of the West as well as in the Southeast. Heat
and drought hedges in the Western Plains and Canada this Fall
and even next spring. A hot end to summer and fall for the
West can be hedged for impacts on livestock and dairy as well
as energy consumption for building owners, municipalities and
schools where the drought is the worst and the fire and heat
season started early and continues to worsen as we’ve called
for all year. For First Time in 110 Years, Firefighting Costs
Exceed 50 Percent of U.S. Forest Service Budget
WeatherManager Weekly
Significant Events July 2015
Commentary: The map is the
Significant Climate Events for July
with the prime story being hot in the
West and into Alaska with ideal
wildfire conditions, cold in the
Northeast, wet in the Midwest and
hot and dry in the Southeast.
Recommendation: Now that we are
in August, early Fall freeze hedges
should be considered where freeze
dates for the Northern US can be as
early as mid-August and most of the
Belt has early freeze dates in early
September. With eWeather you
can guarantee a freeze free
September in a good part of the
Belt where the forecasts are calling
for a cool end to August in the
Northern Plains. Drought and lack
of chilling unit hedges in the West
for next winter should be
considered. Excess heat hedges for
the Southeast should also be
considered.
WeatherManager Weekly
Hazards Outlook
Commentary: The map is the 3-7
Day weather hazards map for the
US. Heavy rain along the Gulf Coast
but drought in South Florida, the
Carolina’s and all of the West,
excessive heat in the desert, high
winds in the Western Plains and
heavy rain in the upper Plains.
Recommendation: Early Fall freeze
hedges should be considered
everywhere there was late planting
and particularly in the North for row
crops and into Texas for cotton
where the crop is still 2-4 weeks
behind. High Plains cotton still late
but catching up some with hot
weather Excess rain hedges and lack
of Growing Degrees can also be
considered for areas that have had
too much rain or late planting.
WeatherManager Weekly
Short – Term Precipitation Outlook
Commentary: The 5 and 7 day outlooks
forecasts 1 to 2” rain in the Canadian Prairies
and Northern US Plains, generally light to no
rain for most of the US other than the Gulf
Coast with 3” rains just onshore.
Recommendations. Drought and heat hedges
for the PNW and Canada for this summer and
next fall/winter and heat hedges for this summer
and fall in the West and PNW are still
suggested. We have hurricane and excess rain
hedges for those along the coasts that are also of
interest to energy companies in the Gulf.
Municipalities and building owners should
consider purchasing excess snow hedges for
next winter and remember we now offer
weather protection for your concerts, fairs,
tournaments and other outdoor events which is
generating strong interest. If you have an
upcoming event in your area, call the
organizer, get some details such as the date
and amount at risk and call us at (800) 603 –
3605 for a quote.
WeatherManager Weekly
8/12/2015 – 8/17/2015
8/12/2015 – 8/19/2015
6 – 10 Day Weather Information WeatherManager Weekly
Commentary: Wednesday’s 6 – 10 day temperature
outlook for August 18th – August 22nd shows
widespread above to much above normal temperatures
for most of the US with the most above normal in the
Northeast through the Central Belt and then again in
the West. Below to much below normal in the
Midwest with an early harbinger of fall and possibly
freezing temperatures around the corner.
The lower map is the 6-10 precipitation outlook with
above normal rainfall forecast for the eastern 2/3rds of
the US and below to much below normal rainfall
returning to the West.
Recommendations. Heat hedges for feedlots and dairy
with our new heat index hedges performed
exceptionally this summer and can still be bought.
With the strengthening El Nino increasing the risk of a
cooler and wetter summer in the South, the risk of
more frequent snow and ice events in the
South/Southeast increases as does the risk of a warmer
and drier Northern US for this Fall and Winter which
could also mean less snow and more ice. Call for a
quote for your risk.
8 – 14 Day Weather Information
Commentary: The 8 – 14 day
temperature outlook for August 20th to
August 26th forecasts above to much
above normal temperatures continuing for
most of the US and below to much below
normal continuing in the upper Plains.
Recommendation. Heat and/or drought
hedges in the South/Southeast are still
recommended where contracts can start in
20 days. Heat hedges in the West where a
very active fire season is well underway
and is worsening every day with these dry
and warm conditions. Call or e-mail us to
discuss how these work for your risks.
We are also seeing interest from building
owners and municipalities for snow and
cold winter hedges in the Midwest and
East Coast for next winter as well as
transportation/logistics hedges where cold
winters constrain truck, rail and
barge/boat traffic and hauling.
WeatherManager Weekly
8 – 14 Day Weather Information
Commentary: The 8 – 14 day
precipitation outlook for August 20th to
August 26th shows continued below
normal rainfall for the Western US and
above to much above normal rainfall
continuing for the eastern 2/3rds of the
US.
Recommendation: Cool summer and
excess precipitation are recommended
particularly for shorter season areas like
MI/WI as well as for any late planted
areas where folks were still trying to plant
soybeans even into July and early freeze
dates not far away. Freeze hedges for
those areas should also be explored as
well as continued wetness for quality
problems and excess drying costs. Rain
on hay as well as into harvest on barley
and spring wheat should also be
considered where we have special
protections available.
WeatherManager Weekly
Points to Consider
There are now over 6,000 weather stations that are available,
single or in combination to cover weather risk in 14 different
peril groups.
Weather risks are fully customized to each customer’s need
as a single peril that can be applied throughout the season as
well as for commercial accounts – cooperatives, ethanol
plants, feedlots, utilities (both water and energy) and
construction risks.
Patented weather data, hedging and index creation processes,
patent number 8,607,154, issued 12/10/2013.
eWeatherRisk solutions are backed by a Standard and Poor's
AA- rated multi-national reinsurer.
Issue 242
August 13, 2015
Brian O’Hearne, President/CEO
John Coleman, Director, Structuring & Origination
Contact us or your agent for specific needs (800) 603-3605.
eWeatherRisk, Inc. | 5251 W. 116th Pl, Suite 204 Leawood, KS 66211 | (800) 603 - 3605
Cows stand in a flooded pasture at the corner of West
Oak Harbor Southeast Road and Ohio 273 in Oak
Harbor, Ohio.