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AUIDF Briefing Alan Olsen www.spre.com.au 14 March 2012
AUIDF Benchmarking
2011 in 2012
Timetable/Deadlines
• One university declined
• Real, final deadline Friday 9 March
• Wednesday 14 March 6 of 37 outstanding
• Friday 16 March???
Staffing of Mobility
• Keep in benchmarking (not mobility) alongside staffing of marketing, enquiries, admissions, compliance, student services
• Second question on all types
Applicants and Applications
• Benchmarking is of applicants
• But a lot of multiple applications
• Whip around of universities on applications to applicants?
• Overall ratio, median, your university
International Data Collection Project
INTERNATIONAL DATA COLLECTION PROJECT
Collections 1 and 22011
Australia 2011
Period 11 January to
31 March 2011
Australia 2011
Period 11 January to
31 March 2011
Australia 2011
Period 11 January to
31 March 2011
SOURCE REGIONS
Collections 1 and 22011
Source Regions
Period 11 January to
31 March 2011
Source Regions
Period 21 April to
31 August 2011
Source Regions
Period 11 January to
31 March 2011
Source Regions
Period 21 April to
31 August 2011
TOP SOURCE COUNTRIES
OnshoreCollections 1 and 2
2011
Top Source CountriesOnshore Commencements –
Period 1• 1 China 20,357• 2 Malaysia 3,867• 3 US 3,663• 4 Vietnam 2,313• 5 Singapore 2,241• 6 India 2,230• 7 Hong Kong 2,140• 8 Korea (South)2,006• 9 Indonesia 1,887• 10 Canada 1,453• 11 Saudi Arabia 1,338• 12 Germany 1,106• 13 Nepal 976• 14 Thailand 801• 15 Taiwan 722
Top Source CountriesOnshore Commencements –
Period 2• 1 China 13,871• 2 US 2,270• 3 India 1,934• 4 Vietnam 1,542• 5 Malaysia 1,402• 6 Singapore 1,288• 7 Indonesia 1,247• 8 Germany 1,014• 9 Korea (South)982• 10 Hong Kong 975• 11 Saudi Arabia 875• 12 Norway 867• 13 Nepal 784• 14 UK 636• 15 Thailand 610
Top Source CountriesOnshore Commencements
Period 1 and 2• 1 China 34,228• 2 US 5,933• 3 Malaysia 5,269• 4 India 4,164• 5 Vietnam 3,855• 6 Singapore 3,529• 7 Indonesia 3,134• 8 Hong Kong 3,115• 9 Korea (South)2,988• 10 Saudi Arabia 2,213• 11 Germany 2,120• 12 Nepal 1,760• 13 Norway 1,533• 14 Thailand 1,411• 15 UK 1,276
Commencements
• Beginning with our reporting of the third collection for 2011, we will provide year to date data on commencements
Timing
• Still waiting for 12 of 18 universities who will report third collection
• Census date 31 March, we expect these 12 returns in April, we will report in April
• Confirms decision on three collections, otherwise we are waiting until April 2012 for August 2011 figures
Data Collection Melbourne Proposal
• Paper from Melbourne
• “massive request to restructure a project that we are all still coming to terms with”
Proposals
• Provide the entire XL spreadsheet of data from all universities, de-identified
• Split commencements and enrolments by level
• Include all source countries• Individual reports for universities
should be done away with
Mobility 2011 in 2012
Mobility 2011 in 2012
• Questionnaire 7 June
• Deadline Friday 27 July
• Real, final deadline Friday 3 August
• Reports 31 August
Mobility Issues
• Funding options
• Funding used
• EU
• Socio-economic
Mobility Funding Options
• University funding• Australian government program• Access to OS HELP
• Private funding: From private organisations or foundations in Australia, excluding self- funding
• Funds from overseas government or foundation
Mobility Funding Options
• Across 37 universities in 2010, 61% of international study experiences had funding support from the university, and 21% accessed OS HELP
Mobility Funding Options
University Funds (only)OS HELP (only)Australian government program (only)Combination of University Funds and OS HELPCombination of University Funds and Australian government programCombination of OS HELP and Australian government programThree way combination of University Funds and OS HELP and Australian government program
Mobility Funding Options
Private funds (only)Combination of private funds and university fundsCombination of private funds and OS HELPThree way combination of private funds and university funds and OS HELPFunds from Overseas Government or Foundation (only)Combination of funds from Overseas Government or Foundation and OS HELPOther combinations (please specify)
Mobility Funding Used
• Consistently ask how much funding was used in 2011 (instead of sometimes asking how much funding was available)
European Union
• Creating an EU sub-total within Europe
• We have at our fingertips the number of Australian students who undertake international study experiences in EU nations
• For Australia/EU dialogues
Socio-economic StatusInternational Study Experience and Socio-Economic Status
Number of Students Percentage Decile 10 573 18% Decile 9 521 16% Decile 8 373 11% Decile 7 413 13% Decile 6 257 8% Decile 5 239 7% Decile 4 230 7% Decile 3 234 7% Decile 2 236 7% Decile 1 186 6% Total 3,262 100%
Socio-economic Status
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Decile 10 Decile 9 Decile 8 Decile 7 Decile 6 Decile 5 Decile 4 Decile 3 Decile 2 Decile 1
Socio-economic Status
• In twelve universities, one third of students undertaking international study experiences were from the bottom 50% of postcodes
• Across 37 universities, 61% of international study experiences had funding support from the university, and 21% accessed OS HELP
AEI Requests
• No data on outbound mobility
• Evans: “the preference for Australian students has been to go to Europe and the Americas”
AEI Requests
• In 2010, Asia was the second most popular destination after Europe, ahead of the Americas
• 37.4% to Europe: 8.1% to UK• 31.8% to Asia: 9.8% to China,
3.8% to Japan, 3.0% to Malaysia and 2.8% to India
• 24.3% to Americas: 15.8% to US
AEI Requests
• Historical mobility figures
• Suggestion to include data by type of experience and field of study for US and China
• Request for more info on scholarships
Current Practice
• AIEC presentation in October
• Directors agree to release
• Absolute rule that nobody sees any individual institutions responses
Historical Mobility Figures
• Aggregate data from 2007, 2009, 2010 to AEI, if Directors agree
• Nobody sees any individual institutions’ responses
US and China
• Country level views of Table 3 for two exemplar countries (US and China)
• Analysis by field of education and type of international study experience
• Currently one global analysis, request for US and China in addition to global
Scholarships
• Agenda for 2013
Fee
• AEI/AUIDF fee relationship
• Something that is free has no value
Modelling
Higher Education Enrolments
• 2011: 242,351 (up 0.068%)
• 2010: 242,186
• 2009: 225,719
Higher Education Commencements
• 2011: 96,526 (down 4.6%, including down 2.5% in 1/2011 and down 7.9% in 2/2011)
• 2010: 101,167
• 2009: 101,294
Modelling: Higher Education
• Assumption: commencements in 2012 will be 20% lower than in 2011
• Growth 5% per year from 2013• Everything else is a model of
international commencements and enrolments
Modelling: Higher Education
• 2011 is like 2010
• 2012 looks like 2009
• Bottom out in 2013, looks like 2008
• Slow recovery to 2011 level by 2018
Modelling: Higher Education
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20%
Modelling: Higher Education
• Can we keep drops in commencements in 2012 to -10%?
• Commencements in 2012 10% lower than in 2011
• Growth 5% per year from 2013• 2012 looks like 2009• Bottom in 2013, looks like 2009• Recovery to 2011 level by 2015
Modelling: Higher Education
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20%
10%
Modelling Higher Education
• Following Knight, can we keep commencements in 1/2012 to -10%, commencements in 2/2012 flat?
• Commencements in 1/2012 10% lower than in 1/2011, in 2/2012 flat
• Growth 5% per year from 2013• 2012 looks better than 2009• Bottom 2013, looks better than 2009• Recovery to 2011 level by 2014
Modelling Higher Education
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20%
10%
10%, 0%
International and Domestic Student
Recruitment
2010
• In 37 of the 38 Australian universities, international student marketing located in International Office
• In 32 of 38, international student enquiries in International Office
• In 32 of 38, international student admissions in International Office
Four Reasons
• Expertise
• Compliance
• Relationships
• Culture
Expertise
• The people who recruit international students in Australian universities need expertise in overseas markets, in overseas education systems and in overseas qualifications
• Irrelevant to people who recruit local students
• cf brand, image, logo
Compliance
• Compliance, including compliance by recruitment staff, compliance by agents and compliance of all recruitment materials used for promotion of courses to prospective international students.
• Irrelevant to people who recruit local students
• cf brand, image, logo
Relationships
• 62% of commencing international students at 26 universities in Australia came to those universities through agents and another 16% came through pathways, with just 22% coming to the universities directly
• Relationships with intermediaries including agents, pathways providers and twinning partners
Culture
• While local student recruitment essentially works around closing dates, with applicants in clusters, international student recruitment is based on continuous, quick turnaround.
• cf Platoons
Banking/Insurance
• x% of revenue from insurance
• Bank branches
• Mainstream banking product?
• A few insurance gurus?
