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Aurel SchubertDirector-General Statistics, ECB ESCB statistics and
its main challenges ahead
Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on StatisticsSkopje, 4 October 2013
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Outline
* The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the ECB. 2
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Production of ESCB Statistics
Main challenges ahead
Increased policy relevance of statistics
ECB-RESTRICTED
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Challenges in European statistics production+
Improving communication of statistics +
Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs+
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ESCB statistics are vital for:
•ECB’s monetary policy
•Other (growing) policy functions (financial stability, systemic risk and macro-prudential surveillance, payment systems oversight, …)
•Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)
•Statistical support to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)
Increased policy relevance of statistics
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• The EU reforms following the crisis
• Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools) and to enforce policy compliance
Financial supervisorypolicies
Fiscalpolicies
Macro-economicpolicies
ESCB statistics are also key to EU policy-makers’ decisions
ESCB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps
ESCB statistics are also a public good
Increased policy relevance of statistics
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Production of ESCB Statistics
Main challenges ahead
Increased policy relevance of statistics
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The ESCB’s own produced European statistics
The European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics)
… and also data from commercial data providers
Evidence-based decision making is supported by
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Main focus on euro area statistics, but also on national contributions, which need to be harmonised and comparable• to compile homogenous euro area aggregates which in
many cases are not the simple sum of national statistics• to ensure cross-country comparability and to assess
economic convergence
Conforming to international standards wherever possible
European and international cooperation is essential (in particular with Eurostat, BIS, IMF, OECD, UN)
• active and influential ECB role on on-going developments (to limit subsequent efforts)
Main features of ESCB statistics
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ECB statistical competences laid down in ECB Statute annexed to the EU Treaty
ECB legal acts (Regulations and Guidelines) address a wide range of statistics
ECB and the NCBs work as a team through the ESCB Statistics Committee (STC)
• Develops new statistics and statistical methods and prepares legal acts for adoption by the ECB Governing Council
• Essential role of National Central Banks, which collect (national) data on the basis of ECB legal acts and submit harmonised datasets to the ECB
• ECB checks data quality, aggregates and consolidates for the euro area
Encompassing quality architecture• Public Commitment for European Statistics• ECB Statistics Quality Framework• Quality reporting
Main features of ESCB statistics
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Article 338 TFEU Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute Treaty of the EU
European Statistical SystemRegulation 223/09
ECB collecting statisticsRegulation 2533/98
EP and Council Regulationsaddressed to Member States
ECB Regulationsaddressed to reporting agents
ECB Guidelines
NCBs
Eurosystem
…
Short-term Statistics
HICP
ESA 95 transmission programme
Investment Funds
…Insurance Corp. & Pension Funds
BOP
MUFA
GFSMFI
Balance sheet
Interest rates
Financial Vehicle Corporations
Legal framework for European statistics
Securities Holdings
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Responsibility• General economic statistics
• All non-economic statistics
Responsibility• Monetary and financial statistics
• Quarterly financial accounts
• International reserves
• Financial stability statistics
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics
Shared responsibility•B.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics
•European accounts by sector
•Statistical infrastructure
Statistical cooperation in the EU
European System of
Central Banks (ESCB)/Eurosyst
emm
European Statistical System (ESS)
EU National Central Banks ECB
EU National Statistical Institutes
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+ new: European Statistical Forum
Eurosystem
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Statistical cooperation in the ESCB
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ESCB Statistics
Committee (STC)
WG on Euro Area Accounts
WG on External Statistics
WG on General
Economic Statistics
WG on Government
Finance Statistics
WG on Monetary
and Financial Statistics
WG on Securities Statistics
WG on Statistical
Information Management
Ad-hoc Task
Forces
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Production of ESCB Statistics
Main challenges ahead
Increased policy relevance of statistics
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Challenges in European statistics production
More detailed data
•Country data
•Micro-databases
•Distributional data
• Reporting burden
• Confidentiality
• Compiler’s resources
Increasingdemands
Facingconstraints
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New statistics on • Investment funds (2009)
• Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation (2011)
• Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds (2011)
• Consolidated banking data
Development micro-datasets• Centralised Securities Database
• Securities Holding Statistics
• Credit and Credit risk dataset
• Register of Financial Institutions
• Household and corporate surveys
Better macro-ec. statistics• Further development euro area
accounts
• Implementation new manuals (SNA2010-ESA2010, BPM6)
Other datasets•BIS banking statistics
•Financial markets statistics
•Ad-hoc surveys
The ECB response
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New statistics- better information on all financial sectors
Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics
• New statistics on assets and liabilities euro area Investment Funds
Investment Funds
• Regular compilation statistics euro area Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation transactions and MFI securitisation
Financial Vehicle Corporations
• New statistics euro area Insurance Corporations & Pension Funds Insurance
Corporations & Pension Funds
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Breakdowns
• Providing more breakdowns of banks’ balance sheet, e.g. loans by NACE, and interest rates
Credit lines
• New data on credit lines granted by banks
Compilation
• Compilation harmonised financial statistics on a consolidated basis
Alignment
• Working with supervisors in a better alignment of supervisory and statistical concepts and data
• Further advancing timeliness
Timeliness
New statistics - better information on all financial sectors
Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics
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1. Financial markets statistics
2. Probability density functions
3. Exposures to sovereign debt/Govt Finance Statistics
4. Short Term European Paper market statistics
5. Foreign currency borrowings by non-financial corporations, households, or credit institutions
1. Financial markets statistics
2. Probability density functions
3. Exposures to sovereign debt/Govt Finance Statistics
4. Short Term European Paper market statistics
5. Foreign currency borrowings by non-financial corporations, households, or credit institutions
Other monetary / financial statistics in demand
New statistics - Better information on financial markets
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Register of Financial institutions and groups composition1Consolidated Banking Data/National Banking Indicators 2
Granular Credit and Credit Risk Dataset3Sectorial/individual Issuance and Holdings of Securities4
SME Corporate finance6
Statistics and Micro-databases
Households finance and consumption survey5
Developments of micro-datasets
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Other datasets
Other datasets
• BIS banking statistics (consolidated and locational by nationality)
• Banks’ disclosures • Commercial data from
Bloomberg, Moody’s, etc.
• BIS banking statistics (consolidated and locational by nationality)
• Banks’ disclosures • Commercial data from
Bloomberg, Moody’s, etc.
Ad-hoc surveys
• Occur for specific issues
• Tailored to latest developments in financial sector
• Especially while EU Supervisory frameworks are still in the making
• Occur for specific issues
• Tailored to latest developments in financial sector
• Especially while EU Supervisory frameworks are still in the making
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1. Enhancing integrated quarterly financial and non-financial accounts euro area:
• Advance timeliness• Improve consistency• Enhance completeness, coverage and length
2. Consolidated lending exposures credit institutions vis-à-vis counterparts
3. Implementation of new international statistical standards (SNA2008-ESA2010, BPM6)
Enhancements to macroeconomic statistics
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Production of ESCB Statistics
Main challenges ahead
Increased policy relevance of statistics
Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs*
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Elements of the Single Supervisory Mechanism
• ECB is the competent supervisory authority for all banks in the euro area in close cooperation with SSM members
• Non-euro area countries can – voluntarily – join the SSM
• ECB to conduct direct supervision of ca. 130-140 banking groups (“significant banks”), representing around 80% of the banking sectors’ total assets in the euro area
• The other, “less significant” banks will be directly supervised locally
• Balance sheet review before the ECB takes over the SSM (conducted together with national supervisory authorities)
• Need for a financial backstop (national budgets and where needed the ESM)
• Accurate, timely and high quality data will be key for the performance of these tasks
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Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs
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SSM Data requirements
EBA’s ITS and Pillar 2 data
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Central Credit Registers
Ad-hoc data collections
Other national data
Financial markets data
Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs
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SSM data framework: preparatory work
• Further work on the SUBA project
• Security Holdings Statistics (SHS)
• Assessment of individual MFI data (balance sheet and interest rates) for supervisory use
• Proof of ability of RIAD to meet mapping requirements
• Financial Market Statistics
Work in progress Next planned steps ahead
• Pilot supervisory data
• Supervisory Banking (SUBA) Data System
• Preparing an ECB decision for the transmission of central credit registers (CCR) data in the short run
• Preparation of the project long-run solution for AnaCredit dataset
• Register of institutions (RIAD)
Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs
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Production of ESCB Statistics
Main challenges ahead
Increased policy relevance of statistics
Improving communication of statistics *
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Fostering cooperation and information-sharing, transparency in methodology
Communicating statistics to professional users, policy makers and the general public
Communication of central bank statistics is an important aspect of accountability and credibility (“evidence based policy making”) and for building trust
• Reporting agents as well as the public at large need to understand, use, re-use the results of data collections
• Statistics (financial sector) is a core product of central banking
Improving communication of statistics
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Content:45 indicators and 6 risk typologies
•Allows synthetic view of the situation for deeper analysis
•Cannot replace expert judgement, but complements it •See: www.esrb.europa.eu
Objectives
Risk assessmentInput to further systemic risk analysis
Communication tool
Macro risk Credit risk Market risk Liquidity and funding Interlinkages Profitability & Solvency
ESRB Risk Dashboard First publication 20 September 2012
Evidence based policy making
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1. MIP-Scoreboard first launched on 14 Feb 2012
2. 11 macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators
3. Data sources are Eurostat and ECB
4. Additional indicators examined in “in-depth” analysis of imbalances (“Alert mechanism””)
5. On-going work to compile quality profiles for the indicators
1. MIP-Scoreboard first launched on 14 Feb 2012
2. 11 macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators
3. Data sources are Eurostat and ECB
4. Additional indicators examined in “in-depth” analysis of imbalances (“Alert mechanism””)
5. On-going work to compile quality profiles for the indicators
Scoreboard
Statistics for EU macro-economic surveillance
Evidence based policy making
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Action Plan following the IMF/FSB report to the G-20 on “The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps”
Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) website: http://www.principalglobalindicators.org/
20 Recommendations being developed and implemented
Key role of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (chaired by the IMF and comprising the BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, WB and the UN)
Evidence based policy making
Global level
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How to access ECB statistics?
• ECB website
• Press releases
• Interactive graphics
• Publications
• Statistical Data Warehousehttp://sdw.ecb.europa.eu
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Thank you for your attention!!!
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Annex
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Core ESCB statistics published by ECB 1/2
Monetary & financial statistics
• Monetary aggregates and counterparts
• Balance sheet statistics of Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs), Investment Funds (IFs), Financial Vehicle Corporations (FVC) as well as Insurance Corporations (IC) and Pension Funds (PF)
• Statistics on average interest rates (deposits from / loans to households for consumption or housing; deposits from / loans to firms)
• Securities issues statistics, yield curves, financial markets price and volume statistics, payments and securities settlement statistics
• Financial stability statistics and indicators – also to support the ESRB, Financial integration indicators, STEP Market statistics
External statistics • Balance of payments, international investment position (including
international reserves), effective exchange rates, international role of the euro
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Core ESCB statistics published by ECB 2/2
Euro area accounts• Integrated quarterly accounts (non-financial and financial) by institutional
sector encompassing transactions, other flows and balance sheets
Government finance statistics • Revenue, expenditure, deficit, debt, deficit-debt adjustment
Surveys• Survey on the access to finance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the
euro area
• Household Finance and Consumption Survey
General economic statistics • Seasonally adjusted HICP, residential property price indicator, short-term
indicators, timely labour market statistics (e.g. euro area negotiated wages developments)
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