Measuring Public Opinion for over 70 Years Article No. 6059 Available on www.roymorgan.com Roy Morgan State of the Nation Reports Roy Morgan Research Ltd. A.B.N. 91 007 092 944 Quality System Certified to AS/NZS ISO 9001 401 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 – GPO Box 2282U, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia Tel: (03) 9629 6888 Fax: (03) 9629 1250 (03) 9224 5387 [email protected]www.roymorgan.com FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Monday, 16 March 2015 Economic Issues still biggest problems facing Australia (38%) but Terrorism/ Wars/ Security Issues easily biggest problems facing the World (43%) after French atrocity – ‘Charlie Hebdo’ shootings in Paris In January 2015, Australians still believe Economic & Financial issues are the most important set of problems facing Australia (38%, up 2% since October 2014) but Terrorism/ War/ Security issues are still the biggest problems facing the World (43%, up 4% - the highest for these issues since November 2005) according to the latest Roy Morgan Research conducted in January 2015. Australian views on Problems facing Australia When asked about the most important problem facing Australia, Economic & Financial issues are named by 38% of Australians (up 2% since October 2014). Important Economic & Financial issues include Unemployment 13% (up 2%), the Economy, Economic problems and Interest Rates 9% (unchanged), the 2014 Federal Budget 2% (down 1%), Poverty and the Gap between the rich and poor 2% (down 1%) and Cost of Living Issues/ Rising prices/ Inflation 2% (unchanged). A further 13% (up 3%) of Australians mentioned a Social Issue as the most important problem. The most important Social Issues mentioned were Social apathy/ Family breakdown/ Selfishness/ Moral decline 4% (up 1%), Education 4% (up 2%) and Social welfare/ Welfare dependency 2% (unchanged). Another important set of issues covering Government/ Leadership from Politicians/ Leadership/ The Prime Minister Tony Abbott fell considerably over the last few months and was mentioned by 11% (up 1%) as being the most important problem facing Australia while Terrorism/ Wars/ Security issues are mentioned by 11% (unchanged). The next most important set of issues labelled Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights are named by 8% (down 7%) of Australians including the related policy issues of Refugees and Asylum seeker problems 2% (down 1%), Immigration/ Immigration policy 2% (unchanged) and Religion/ Religious fundamentalism 1% (down 2%). Environmental issues are mentioned by 9% (up 2%) of Australians as the most important problem facing Australia. The most important Environmental Issue is Climate Change/ Global Warming 6% (up 1%). Analysis by State Analysing by State shows different problems rated as most important across different States. NSW: Unemployment (11%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (9%) and Terrorism (8%). Victoria: Unemployment (14%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (9%) and Climate Change (7%). Queensland: Unemployment (21%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (11%); Politics/ Leadership (8%) and Terrorism (6%). Western Australia: The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (11%); Tony Abbott (8%); Unemployment (6%) and Terrorism (6%); South Australia: Unemployment (14%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (7%); Health Issues (6%) and Politics/ leadership (6%). Tasmania: Social Apathy/ Family breakdowns/ Selfishness/ Moral decline (19%); Educational issues (8%) and Politics/ Leadership (8%). Australian views on Problems facing the World Easily the biggest World problems are now Terrorism/ Wars/ Security (43%, up 4% since October 2014 - the highest for these issues since November 2005) well in front of Economic & Financial issues (19%, unchanged). Within Terrorism/ Wars/ Security, Terrorism was mentioned by 35% (up 16%), Wars and Conflicts 5% (down 11%) and Security/ Safety 2% (unchanged).
Transcript
Measuring Public Opinion for over 70 Years
Article No. 6059
Available on www.roymorgan.com Roy Morgan State of the Nation Reports
Roy Morgan Research Ltd. A.B.N. 91 007 092 944 Quality System Certified to AS/NZS ISO 9001 401 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 – GPO Box 2282U, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia
Economic Issues still biggest problems facing Australia (38%) but Terrorism/ Wars/ Security Issues easily biggest problems facing the World (43%) after French atrocity – ‘Charlie Hebdo’ shootings in Paris
In January 2015, Australians still believe Economic & Financial issues are the most important set of problems facing Australia (38%, up 2% since October 2014) but Terrorism/ War/ Security issues are still the biggest problems facing the World (43%, up 4% - the highest for these issues since November 2005) according to the latest Roy Morgan Research conducted in January 2015.
Australian views on Problems facing Australia
When asked about the most important problem facing Australia, Economic & Financial issues are named by 38% of Australians (up 2% since October 2014). Important Economic & Financial issues include Unemployment 13% (up 2%), the Economy, Economic problems and Interest Rates 9% (unchanged), the 2014 Federal Budget 2% (down 1%), Poverty and the Gap between the rich and poor 2% (down 1%) and Cost of Living Issues/ Rising prices/ Inflation 2% (unchanged).
A further 13% (up 3%) of Australians mentioned a Social Issue as the most important problem. The most important Social Issues mentioned were Social apathy/ Family breakdown/ Selfishness/ Moral decline 4% (up 1%), Education 4% (up 2%) and Social welfare/ Welfare dependency 2% (unchanged).
Another important set of issues covering Government/ Leadership from Politicians/ Leadership/ The Prime Minister Tony Abbott fell considerably over the last few months and was mentioned by 11% (up 1%) as being the most important problem facing Australia while Terrorism/ Wars/ Security issues are mentioned by 11% (unchanged).
The next most important set of issues labelled Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights are named by 8% (down 7%) of Australians including the related policy issues of Refugees and Asylum seeker problems 2% (down 1%), Immigration/ Immigration policy 2% (unchanged) and Religion/ Religious fundamentalism 1% (down 2%).
Environmental issues are mentioned by 9% (up 2%) of Australians as the most important problem facing Australia. The most important Environmental Issue is Climate Change/ Global Warming 6% (up 1%).
Analysis by State
Analysing by State shows different problems rated as most important across different States.
NSW: Unemployment (11%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (9%) and Terrorism (8%).
Victoria: Unemployment (14%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (9%) and Climate Change (7%).
Queensland: Unemployment (21%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (11%); Politics/ Leadership (8%) and Terrorism (6%).
Western Australia: The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (11%); Tony Abbott (8%); Unemployment (6%) and Terrorism (6%);
South Australia: Unemployment (14%); The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (7%); Health Issues (6%) and Politics/ leadership (6%).
Tasmania: Social Apathy/ Family breakdowns/ Selfishness/ Moral decline (19%); Educational issues (8%) and Politics/ Leadership (8%).
Australian views on Problems facing the World
Easily the biggest World problems are now Terrorism/ Wars/ Security (43%, up 4% since October 2014 - the highest for these issues since November 2005) well in front of Economic & Financial issues (19%, unchanged). Within Terrorism/ Wars/ Security, Terrorism was mentioned by 35% (up 16%), Wars and Conflicts 5% (down 11%) and Security/ Safety 2% (unchanged).
Within Economic/ Financial Issues, Poverty/ The gap between the rich and poor was mentioned by 7% (unchanged) followed by the Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates 5% (up 1%) and Unemployment (3%, unchanged).
Environmental Issues were mentioned by 14% of Australians (down 3%) as the biggest problem facing the World today. The most important Environmental issue is clearly Climate Change/ Global warming 10% (down 1%) followed by other Environmental Issues 2% (down 1%).
Government/ Politics/ Leadership/ Human rights are mentioned as being the World’s biggest problem by 9% (down 2%) – including Religion/ Religious fundamentalism 5% (up 1%).
Social Issues are the next biggest problem according to 8% (up 1%) of Australians. Social Apathy/ Family breakdowns/ Selfishness/ Moral decline are mentioned by 4% (up 1%) of Australians.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan says:
“The latest Roy Morgan qualitative and quantitative research shows Economic and Financial issues (38%, up 2% since October 2014) are still the ‘most important problems’ facing Australia. This follows the badly received Federal Budget handed down by Treasurer Joe Hockey last May and also a Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO) in December that contained a substantial downgrade to Australia’s budgetary position – including a large blowout in Australia’s Budget Deficit.
“When considering the most important problems facing the World, Terrorism/ Wars/ Security issues (43%, up 4% - the highest since November 2005) are once again clearly the ‘most important problems’ facing the World following the Charlie Hebdo shootings in Paris, and also continuing instability in Iraq and Syria with regards to ISIS/ Islamic State, and also the ongoing turmoil in Ukraine. In Australia War/ Terrorism/ Security has remained steady at 11% (unchanged) over the past few months.
“The most important Economic and Financial problems facing Australia include Unemployment (13%, up 2%) and the Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (9%, unchanged). Other important sets of issues include Social Issues (13%, up 3%) and Government/ Politics/ Leadership (11%, up 1%). The lack of focus of the Abbott Government on dealing with Environmental Issues probably explains why only 9% (up 2%) of Australians regard Environmental issues as a big problem facing Australia.
“The Charlie Hebdo shootings in Paris in early January along with the continuing hostilities in the Middle East and in Ukraine have clearly made a strong impact on Australians with 43% (up 4%) nominating Terrorism/ War/ Security issues as the biggest problems facing the World. Terrorism is mentioned specifically by 35% (up 16%), including several mentions of ISIS or the Islamic State, while comparatively only 5% (down 11%) of Australians mentioned Wars and Conflicts around the world.
“Economic Issues (19%, unchanged) are still regarded as the second most important set of problems facing the World. The most important Economic Issues are Poverty/ The gap between the rich and the poor 7% (unchanged) and The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates 5% (up 1%).”
These findings come from a special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted in Australia on attitudes towards issues facing Australia and the World in the future.
In Australia, a cross-section of 604 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on the nights of January 12-13, 2015. Respondents were asked: “Firstly, what do you think is the most important problem facing the World today?” and “What do you think is the most important problem facing Australia today?”
The research conducted was both qualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).
TOTAL Energy Crisis/ Depletion of Fossil Fuels/Petrol Price 1 - 2 - - - - 1 1
Other * 1 - - - 2 - - *
Can’t say 3 3 3 4 4 - 6 2 5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 *Less than 1%. #Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0
Morgan Poll Accuracy — Recent Elections State & Federal (2006 – 2013)
The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2013 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2013 Federal Election for the two-party preferred vote (L-NP: 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) (sample 4,937 electors).
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
