Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods
Annimacwww.annimac.com.au
APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition
Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia
Speaker
Conference Plenary Conference Plenary
Two most powerful industries :Two most powerful industries :
. Technology I C T . Technology I C T
. Energy Oil & gas . Energy Oil & gas
Industry secure future ?Industry secure future ?
NoNo
Not the way it is Not the way it is
What must change ? What must change ?
Can it change ? Can it change ?
Rate of ChangeRate of Change
• every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site
• every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology
• every day : 15 million new web pages
• every 5 days : new product / service
Amount of change in one day
our Grandparents had in one year
Younger means faster
Technology
e.g. by 2020
70 % types of jobs then
do not exist now because
80% technology not yet imagined
Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change
What’s pushing the industry :What’s pushing the industry :
. Political power shift . Political power shift
. Global economic shift . Global economic shift
. Global values shift . Global values shift
. O . O&&G Big Rollover G Big Rollover
O & GO & G
Big Rollover :Big Rollover :
Supply > DemandSupply > Demand
Three Wise MonkeysThree Wise Monkeys
• Oil Companies : Oil Companies : - hear no depletion - hear no depletion
• Governments & International Agencies :Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion - see no depletion
• And all agree it would be best to :And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion - talk no depletion
Typical Oil Depletion Curve
Norway (North Sea)
Werner Zittel , LBST
2004
www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com
Saudi Reserves Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons February 2004
Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004Douglas - Westwood Ltd
Cambridge UK
Study : World oil forecast
beset with reserves shortfalls
2004
2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Pro
du
cti
on
kb
/d
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dis
co
very G
b (
sh
ad
ed
)
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
China
ASPO Newsletter 40 April 2004 www.PeakOil.netAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Oil discovery Oil production
Forecast ?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
OGJ Reserves
2002 IHS Rpt
Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports
IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves
Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin
www.PeakOil.net
Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played ?
" Do you wish to :
• Kill your careerKill your career
• Head the redundancy listHead the redundancy list
• Be blamed for starting the panic ?Be blamed for starting the panic ?""
Chris SkrebowskiChris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.netwww.PeakOil.net
Or is Big RolloverOr is Big Rollover : ( tick one ) : ( tick one )
a) Only part of humungous dilemmaa) Only part of humungous dilemma
b) Forcing too rapid changeb) Forcing too rapid change
c) Change to what ?c) Change to what ?
d) All too scaryd) All too scary
e) All of the above ore) All of the above or
f) Nonsensef) Nonsense
Everyone agrees :Everyone agrees :
Change is inevitable .Change is inevitable .
Your choice :Your choice :
Understand forces of changeUnderstand forces of change
oror
Be victim of future.Be victim of future.
What’s pushing the industry :What’s pushing the industry :
. Political power shift . Political power shift
. Global economic shift . Global economic shift
. Global values shift . Global values shift
. O . O&&G Big Rollover G Big Rollover
Global Economic powerGlobal Economic power
Economic domination 200 yrsEconomic domination 200 yrs
to Western Pacific Rimto Western Pacific Rim
Global Cultural powerGlobal Cultural power
Christian domination 500 yrsChristian domination 500 yrs
Estimated 2 billion people watched world mediaEstimated 2 billion people watched world media
to Confucian / Islam influenceto Confucian / Islam influence
Fastest robanoidFastest robanoid
Chi master class with MIT engineersChi master class with MIT engineers
Gap widening : Knowledge
• Haves / have nots
• Age generations
• Globally networked
Shifting Global ValuesShifting Global Values
About Technology not wealth
• Access
• Skilling
50 % world popn : no phone
Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots
Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations
Four generations : Three worlds
• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational
• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists or• copy younger : sustainability
Four generations : Three worlds
• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability
• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win
• Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com
Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations
Chinese Technology CentreChinese Technology Centre
Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations
Four generations : Three worlds
• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual
. no limits
. no boundaries
. parallel universes . quantum everything
. invent their world
. beyond our imagining
. Indigo children
Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked
• access all knowledge
• empowered
• confident
• passionately committed
• global view future
• one planet : one future
Impact for Energy IndustryImpact for Energy Industry
• transiting two worlds - accelerating
• values shifting to sustainability
• Big Rollover value driven
• cooperation not competition
• young non negotiators
• relationships : consumers partners innovators
Impact for Impact for AusAus Energy Industry Energy Industry industry leader - how to’s
global location - Asian partners
values shifting to sustainability
not changing fast enough
economic rationalist power
Big Rollover not on agenda
“ She’ll be right, mate.” Science.
Thriving with change :Thriving with change :
Very special note of appreciation to
Bruce Robinson
www.STCwa.org.au
for his impeccable knowledge
regarding global Oil Depletion and his
generosity in sharing it.
Thank you, Bruce.
annimac