Home >Documents >Autonomous Vehicles - actuaries Vehicles Impacts on the General Vehicle Industry Evan Cooper and...

Autonomous Vehicles - actuaries Vehicles Impacts on the General Vehicle Industry Evan Cooper and...

Date post:06-May-2018
Category:
View:214 times
Download:2 times
Share this document with a friend
Transcript:
  • Autonomous Vehicles

    Impacts on the General Vehicle Industry

    Evan Cooper and James Pearson

  • Agenda

    An Introduction to Self Driving Vehicles

    The History

    The current and future players

    Modelling and Assumptions

    How will this impact the industry if there is no industry shift?

    Expectations and Alternatives

  • Self Driving Cars

    http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjlvNDe3cDSAhWFlZQKHZ_EAoYQjRwIBw&url=http://inhabitat.com/100-self-driving-cars-set-to-hit-swedens-public-roads-in-2017/volvo-self-driving-car/&bvm=bv.148747831,d.dGo&psig=AFQjCNH0llg1rF4S492Tn3PaNrxrdaij9A&ust=1488850275833246

  • Vehicle Automation

  • The Timeline of Automation

    1980s

    ABS

    2019-2021

    Large retailers expecting

    to release autonomous

    cars

    2015

    Google driverless car

    fully self driven ride

    1990s

    Traction and stability

    control

    2009

    Google self driving car

    project begins

    2012

    Google self driving car

    ride on city streets

    2013

    Lane keeping

    technology

  • LIDAR Light Imagining, Detection and Radar

  • Tesla Vision

  • Software, Neural Networks and Cars Communicating

    https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi8laGz3cDSAhUEFJQKHZSqAYAQjRwIBw&url=https://mmlind.github.io/What_is_a_Neural_Network/&bvm=bv.148747831,d.dGo&psig=AFQjCNFVsOGZbLfA-f0j-fZli5YYAgbQ2g&ust=1488850159011481

  • The Trolley Problem

  • Autonomous Car Impact Model

    Premiums

    Claims

    Relative Risk by Age Bracket

    Comprehensive and Third Party Cover

    Uptake of Autonomous Vehicles

    Number of Autonomous and Non-Autonomous Vehicles

    Autonomous vehicle crash rates

  • Premium and Claims Assumptions

  • Overview of the motor vehicle industry

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    15-24 25-39 40-59 60+

    Total Cover Comprehensive Thirdparty Not insured

    Source: 2009 Ministry of Transport Vehicle Insurance Report

  • Crash Rates and Age

    Source: 1995-2010 - Motor Vehicle crashes, injuries and deaths in

    relation to driver age USA

  • An Overview of the Road Toll Trend and Drivers

    Source: 2011 - Motor Vehicle crashes in New Zealand

  • Crashes causing Injury and Death by Age

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

    Age Group

    Source: Ministry of Transport Licence and Fleet Statistics Crash and

    Casualties report

  • Online Quotes for Car Insurance

    0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

  • Premium Assumptions $702 per unit population

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

    Millio

    ns

    Predicted Premium Actual Premium

    Source: 1996-2015 Insurance Council of New Zealand

  • Claims Assumption 69.5 cents per dollar

    0.00

    0.20

    0.40

    0.60

    0.80

    1.00

    1.20

    1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

    Billio

    ns

    CPI adjusted claims Predicted ClaimsSource: 1996-2015 Insurance Council of New Zealand

  • Car Uptake and Population Assumptions

    http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiDrbuxgsHSAhXDpZQKHVS9D_sQjRwIBw&url=http://wallpapersafari.com/tesla-4k-wallpaper/&bvm=bv.148747831,d.cGw&psig=AFQjCNHWrnG4G8zVSGqQ7MGu9gLJPo92AA&ust=1488860140553454

  • Uptake

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    18-29 30-44 45-54 55-64 65+

    Safe Not SafeSource: Morning Consulting - 2016

  • Uptake

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Male Female

    Safe Not SafeSource: Morning Consulting - 2016

  • Current Vehicles Over Time

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

    Mill

    ions

    2015-19

    2010-14

    2005-09

    2000-04

    1995-99

    1990-94

    -1989

    Source: 2015 - Ministry of Transport Annual Vehicle Fleet Statistics

  • Current Vehicles Over Time

    -20

    -10

    -

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    Th

    ou

    san

    ds

    Net growth Vehicles out Vehicles in

    Source: 2015 - Ministry of Transport Annual Vehicle Fleet Statistics

  • Number of Autonomous Vehicles over time

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046

    Mill

    ion

    s

    Total Autonomous Total Non AutonomousNet growth rate 2% per annum

    Scrap rate 4.8% per annum

    Uptake exponential, 0% - 2016, 100% - 2030

  • Expectations and Alternatives

  • Earned Premium Sensitivity Varying crash rates

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    2016 2019 2021 2024 2026 2029 2031 2034 2036 2039 2041 2044 2046

    Millio

    ns

    Modelled Premium

    Premium 70% C.R

    Premium 40% C.R

    Premium 20% C.R

  • Alternative Models of the Automotive Industry

    Private Ownership vs Ride Sharing

    Theft and Damage

    Crash Liability

    Regulatory Changes

    Will it be an insurable market

    Cyber insurance

  • Conclusion and Discussion

Embed Size (px)
Recommended