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7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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ROUNDTABLEROUNDTABLE
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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SEALEVELCHANGESSEALEVELCHANGES WHATISSAIDABOUTIT?WHATISSAIDABOUTIT?
Carlo AvanziniCarlo Avanzini
ProfessionalEngineer,MWWDChairmanProfessionalEngineer,MWWDChairman
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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, ,, ,
ahotsubject.ahotsubject.
Thepress
is
emphasizing
the
catastrophic
potential
effects
The
press
is
emphasizing
the
catastrophic
potential
effects
(ordenyingthemassciencefiction),contributingtotheperplexity(ordenyingthemassciencefiction),contributingtotheperplexity
ofthepeoplewhichstartstoaskforactionsofthepeoplewhichstartstoaskforactions butarepracticalbutarepractical
act ons
poss eact ons
poss e
,,
TableonthepotentialdangersofthechangeinthesealevelsTableonthepotentialdangersofthechangeinthesealevels
dueto
global
warming.due
to
global
warming.
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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Question:Question:
Willweface acatastrophicriseinthesealevels,Willweface acatastrophicriseinthesealevels,
endangeringcoastal
towns
and
marine
structures,endangering
coastal
towns
and
marine
structures,
ortheseawillbehave?ortheseawillbehave?
cultivategraininLapland?cultivategraininLapland? andthearcticicemeltingandthearcticicemelting waterwillwaterwillcoveralllowlandscoveralllowlands arecommon aswellthoseontheCO2emissions.arecommon aswellthoseontheCO2emissions.
Thesound
of
many
different
bells
finds
resonance
The
sound
of
many
different
bells
finds
resonance
in allmomentsofourlifethroughthemedia.in allmomentsofourlifethroughthemedia.
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
5/17
Justincase,wearetryingtoprovidetosomebandJustincase,wearetryingtoprovidetosomebandaidsaids
safe uardin Veniceandstartin tomake lansforHollandsafe uardin Veniceandstartin tomake lansforHolland butbut
whatabout
lowlands
around
the
world,
which
already
suffer
what
about
lowlands
around
the
world,
which
already
suffer
fromlandfromlandoriginatedfloods?originatedfloods?
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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n e ewa er nas n ora a u , ewa er eve n ar sn e ewa er nas n ora a u , ewa er eve n ar s
oceansisnotthesameeverywhere;sealevelvarieswithlocationoceansisnotthesameeverywhere;sealevelvarieswithlocation
tides,winds,andwaves,includingstormsurges.Sealevelrisestides,winds,andwaves,includingstormsurges.Sealevelrises
whenoceanswarm,anditdropswhentheycool(becausewaterwhenoceanswarm,anditdropswhentheycool(becausewater
expandswhen
it
heats
up
and
contracts
when
it
cools).
expands
when
it
heats
up
and
contracts
when
it
cools).
Regionalvariationsinsealevelcanpersistformanyyears,evenaRegionalvariationsinsealevelcanpersistformanyyears,evena
eca e. n er y nga esec anges s es owerr sean a neca e. n er y nga esec anges s es owerr sean a n
globalaveragesealevelasiceagesrecedeandadvanceoverglobalaveragesealevelasiceagesrecedeandadvanceover
(fromNASA,ScienceMissionDirectorate)(fromNASA,ScienceMissionDirectorate)
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
7/17
ThismapshowsglobalThismapshowsglobal
patternsofchangesinseapatternsofchangesinsea
level(sea
surface
height)
level
(sea
surface
height)
measuredbysatellitemeasuredbysatellitebasedbased
throughtheendof2007.throughtheendof2007.
Placeswhere
the
sea
Places
where
the
sea
sur ace eig tincrease upsur ace eig tincrease up
to225millimeters(aboutto225millimeters(about
8.9inches areshownin8.9inches areshownin
darkred;
places
where
sea
dark
red;
places
where
sea
leveldroppedareblue.leveldroppedareblue.
ThemostwidespreadchangeinsealeveloverthistimeperiodwasanThemostwidespreadchangeinsealeveloverthistimeperiodwasan
.
.
spannedbythisimage,aclimatepatterncalledthePacificDecadalspannedbythisimage,aclimatepatterncalledthePacificDecadal
Oscillationwasinitswarmphase,andseasurfacetemperatureswereOscillationwasinitswarmphase,andseasurfacetemperatureswere
aboveaverageinmuchofthebasin.Thermalexpansionduringthisaboveaverageinmuchofthebasin.Thermalexpansionduringthis
warmphase
would
be
consistent
with
arise
in
sea
level.warm
phase
would
be
consistent
with
arise
in
sea
level.
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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ChangesinthelocationorvelocityofoceancurrentsovertheChangesinthelocationorvelocityofoceancurrentsoverthe
span
of
decades
can
be
part
of
a
natural
cycle,
or
they
may
span
of
decades
can
be
part
of
a
natural
cycle,
or
they
may
resultofhumanresultofhumancausedclimatechange.causedclimatechange.
SatelliteobservationsofsealevelfromsatellitessuchasSatelliteobservationsofsealevelfromsatellitessuchasTo exTo ex
Jason1,
and
the
recently
launched
Jason
2,
are
critical
tools
for
Jason
1,
and
the
recently
launched
Jason
2,
are
critical
tools
for
scientiststryingtounderstandhowglobalwarmingwillaffectscientiststryingtounderstandhowglobalwarmingwillaffect
oceanheatstorageandglobalsealevelriseovermanydecades.oceanheatstorageandglobalsealevelriseovermanydecades.
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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InternetandpresscontributetotheanxietywithinformationInternetandpresscontributetotheanxietywithinformation
SealevelstorisedramaticallySealevelstorisedramatically
et s:et s:
Hig ti es,stormsurgesan waveactioncancausecoastaHig ti es,stormsurgesan waveactioncancausecoasta
flooding.SealevelsinpartsofScotlandwillhaverisenbyflooding.SealevelsinpartsofScotlandwillhaverisenby
about
30cmb
the
2080s.....about
30cm
b
the
2080s.....
ResearcherswereanalyzingtheriskofcoastalfloodingandwaysResearcherswereanalyzingtheriskofcoastalfloodingandways
tomanageit.Morethan300coastalfloodssince1849werestudied...tomanageit.Morethan300coastalfloodssince1849werestudied...
was oun a s orms r ven n rom e an c cean ur ngwas oun a s orms r ven n rom e an c cean ur ng
periodsofstrongwesterlywindswerethemaincauseofcoastalperiodsofstrongwesterlywindswerethemaincauseofcoastalflooding.Overthepastfewdecades,waterlevels50flooding.Overthepastfewdecades,waterlevels5060cmabovethe60cmabovethe
highestpredictedtidehavebeenrecordedatAberdeen,LerwickandhighestpredictedtidehavebeenrecordedatAberdeen,Lerwickand
Stornowayand120cmatMillport.Stornowayand120cmatMillport.
about20cmhigherintheClydeestuary,about20cmhigherintheClydeestuary,28cmhigher28cmhigherinMorayandinMorayand
AberdeenshireandAberdeenshireand32cmhigher32cmhigherintheNorthernIsles....intheNorthernIsles....
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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Large"eye"berg.PhotoOceanQuestCharterLarge"eye"berg.PhotoOceanQuestCharter
Arewefacingannewglacialeraoraperiodoficemelting?Arewefacingannewglacialeraoraperiodoficemelting?
Weare
rea ng
a
an
t e
contrary
o
a ...
an
t e
more
we
We
are
rea ng
a
an
t e
contrary
o
a ...
an
t e
more
we
read,themorewedonotunderstandwhatishappening.read,themorewedonotunderstandwhatishappening.
IntheAgeofSail,knowledgeoftheworld'soceancurrentswasaIntheAgeofSail,knowledgeoftheworld'soceancurrentswasa
must.A
collaborative
study
between
Spanish
and
German
must.
A
collaborative
study
between
Spanish
and
German
researchershasdiscoveredforthefirsttimehowsmallvariationsresearchershasdiscoveredforthefirsttimehowsmallvariations
insurfacewindssignificantlychangedtheoceancurrentsoftheinsurfacewindssignificantlychangedtheoceancurrentsofthe
previousort t ant c. esec angesmay ave eenrespons e ort eort t ant c. esec angesmay ave eenrespons e ort e
abruptclimatechangethatoccurredduringthelastglacialpabruptclimatechangethatoccurredduringthelastglacialperiod.
rs ScientistshavenowboththeclimaticsimulationsaswellastheScientistshavenowboththeclimaticsimulationsaswellasthe
reconstructionsat
their
disposal,
both
of
which
indicate
that
reconstructions
at
their
disposal,
both
of
which
indicate
that
variationsintheAtlanticOceancirculationcouldhavebeenthevariationsintheAtlanticOceancirculationcouldhavebeenthe
keymechanismresponsiblefortheabruptclimaticchangethatkeymechanismresponsiblefortheabruptclimaticchangethat
oo p aceover e ceage.oo p aceover e ceage.
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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An iceberg waterfall. Photo Ocean Quest ChartersAn iceberg waterfall. Photo Ocean Quest Charters
Thenyoureadthat:Thenyoureadthat:
IthappenshoweverthatsincesomemonthstheatmospherehasIthappenshoweverthatsincesomemonthstheatmospherehas
changed...notonlymeteorologically.Again,somescientistschanged...notonlymeteorologically.Again,somescientists
presentacontradictory
hypothesis
...
The
magazine
Nature,
for
present
acontradictory
hypothesis
...
The
magazine
Nature,
for
instance,hasrecentlyexplainedthatbetween 2010and2020instance,hasrecentlyexplainedthatbetween 2010and2020
wew acea ras cre uc ono eear empera ure ue owew acea ras cre uc ono eear empera ure ue o
thecoolingoftheAtlanticocean...andthepastmonthathecoolingoftheAtlanticocean...andthepastmontha
not...)thearcticicesaremelting,theanctarticicesincreasetheirnot...)thearcticicesaremelting,theanctarticicesincreasetheir
thickness ...andthisiswhathappensduringthecenturiesthickness ...andthisiswhathappensduringthecenturies
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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Whatfrom
the
practical
standpoint?What
from
the
practical
standpoint?
Willwefindourselves,oursonsandgrandsons,obligedtotakeaWillwefindourselves,oursonsandgrandsons,obligedtotakea
liftfromanynavigatingcreatureormakeshiftbarge?liftfromanynavigatingcreatureormakeshiftbarge?
ono n so.ono n so.
Evenifitmaybepossiblethatthescenariowillchange,theEvenifitmaybepossiblethatthescenariowillchange,the
generations.generations.
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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Whilescientists
seek
the
if
&
why,
we
engineers
may/will
have
While
scientists
seek
the
if
&
why,
we
engineers
may/will
have
tofacethepossibletechnicalproblemswhichageneralizedriseintofacethepossibletechnicalproblemswhichageneralizedrisein
waterlevelmay/willcause.waterlevelmay/willcause.
, ,, ,
byafractionofmeter,willupsetallthedischargehydraulics...byafractionofmeter,willupsetallthedischargehydraulics...
possibleflooding
of
the
coastal
WWTP,
to
the
influence
of
high
possible
flooding
of
the
coastal
WWTP,
to
the
influence
of
high
wateronbreakwaterandjetties...tothelossofwidecoastalwateronbreakwaterandjetties...tothelossofwidecoastal
areas...areas...
. .
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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NEXT:NEXT:
IanLarsenIanLarsen Canwerelyonmathematicalmodels? Physicalmodellingstudy
Murali
MuraliKantharajKantharaj
Impacts
of
Climate
Change
on
Indian
coasts
a
perspectivetofuture
ChristopherMeChristopherMead CoastalDefence Vulnerability2075assessmen o ec ange ncoas a e ence vu nera ycause y
globalclimate
change
over
the
next
75
years
Dov Rosen Assessment of climate chan e induced im act via sealevelrise,waveandwindclimateandanthropogenicactivityonthe
coastsof
the
Mediterranean
DiscussionDiscussion
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
15/17
Assessmentofclimatechangeinducedimpactviasealevelrise,Assessmentofclimatechangeinducedimpactviasealevelrise,
oftheMediterraneanoftheMediterranean
DovRosen,B.Galanti,A.Golan,L.RaskinDovRosen,B.Galanti,A.Golan,L.Raskin
SummarySummary :Theforecastedsealevelriseinducedbyglobal:Theforecastedsealevelriseinducedbyglobal
warming,as
well
as
the
forecasted
increase
in
the
frequency
of
warming,
as
well
as
the
forecasted
increase
in
the
frequency
of
extremestormconditionsinducedbyclimatechangeimpactonextremestormconditionsinducedbyclimatechangeimpacton
windandwaveclimatestatisticsposedangerstomanycoastalwindandwaveclimatestatisticsposedangerstomanycoastal
,,
ispresently
in
amild
erosive
state,
presenting
both
beach
erosion
is
presently
in
amild
erosive
state,
presenting
both
beach
erosion
andcoastalcliffsretreat.andcoastalcliffsretreat.
AcoastalengineeringhydroandAcoastalengineeringhydroandmorphomorphodynamicstudywasdynamicstudywas
performed
by
the
authors
in
order
to
provide
guidelines
for
a
performed
by
the
authors
in
order
to
provide
guidelines
for
a
nat ona po cy ocumentont emanagemento t ecoasta c snat ona po cy ocumentont emanagemento t ecoasta c s
inviewoftheirpotentialincreasedcollapseandsetinviewoftheirpotentialincreasedcollapseandset
, . , .
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
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es u y nc u e assessmen o presen sea eve r se ora mees u y nc u e assessmen o presen sea eve r se ora me
horizonupto2100(+1.0m),increaseoftheprobabilityofmorehorizonupto2100(+1.0m),increaseoftheprobabilityofmore
watersignificantwaveheightforanaveragereturnperiodof100watersignificantwaveheightforanaveragereturnperiodof100
yearsforthesametimehorizon)andinvestigatedmitigationyearsforthesametimehorizon)andinvestigatedmitigation
means.Wave
setup
and
means.
Wave
setup
and
runuprunup impact
and
profile
erosion
were
impact
and
profile
erosion
were
investigatedoncoastalsectorscoveringover60kminlengthbyinvestigatedoncoastalsectorscoveringover60kminlengthby
CEDASsoftwarepackage,usingagridsizeof10mfromdeepwaterCEDASsoftwarepackage,usingagridsizeof10mfromdeepwater
to the cliff to SWAN and 5m SBEACH .to the cliff to SWAN and 5m SBEACH .
7/27/2019 Avanzini Sealevelchanges.whatissaidaboutit
17/17
TheoutcomeindicatedthecoastalcliffsectorsmostsensitiveTheoutcomeindicatedthecoastalcliffsectorsmostsensitive
mitigativemitigative solutionisbyutilizationoflowsubmergencesolutionisbyutilizationoflowsubmergence
detachedcaisson
breakwaters
chains
remote
from
the
coast.
detached
caisson
breakwaters
chains
remote
from
the
coast.
TheseinduceapermanentrelativelylowTheseinduceapermanentrelativelylow
wavesetup(>1.5m)butdiminishalmostcompletelythewavewavesetup(>1.5m)butdiminishalmostcompletelythewave
a ac ng ec sun eranyseas a econ on, encea ac ng ec sun eranyseas a econ on, ence
enablingapermanent
protective
means,
consisting
of
the
enabling
apermanent
protective
means,
consisting
of
the
submer ed caisson chain lower art of the cliff toe rotectionsubmer ed caisson chain lower art of the cliff toe rotection
bypermanentmeanslikegeotextilesacsorbypermanentmeanslikegeotextilesacsorgeotubesgeotubes combinedcombined
withasingular
artificial
sand
nourishment
of
the
cliff
toe
and
with
asingular
artificial
sand
nourishment
of
the
cliff
toe
and
beach.beach.