Enlargement of the European Union

What Prospects for South-East Europe?

Graham Avery

United World College, Duino7 December 2010

Themes

• The EU’s expansion from 6 to 27• Who can join the EU?• What prospects for future enlargement?• Countries of the Western Balkans• Turkey, Iceland - and more?• What prospects for future of the EU?

From EC-6 to EU-27

• European political & economic integration– 1950 Schuman Declaration of 9th May– 1952 European Coal & Steel Community– 1957 European Economic Community– 1993 European Union

• For most of its existence, countries have been knocking on the door ...

1952

1973

1981

1986

1990

1995

2004

2007

2010

Enlargement : why ?

• Magnetism of EU’s method of integration• Expansion is driven by – pressure from countries wanting to join– not imperial ambition

• Enlargement policy is– reactive, not proactive

Enlargement : who ?

Treaty on European Union(as amended by Lisbon Treaty)

• Article 49: ‘Any European state which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union’

• Article 2: ‘The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail’

Copenhagen criteria 1993

• Membership requires:– stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy,

rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities

– existence of functioning market economy and capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union

– ability to take on obligations of membership

Situation today

• Applicants for EU membership:• Turkey (1987)• Croatia (2003) • Macedonia (2004) • Montenegro (2008) • Albania, Iceland, Serbia (2009)

• Potential applicants• Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo

• Others aspiring to EU membership• Ukraine etc.

European Union

Balkan peninsula

Western Balkans

Western Balkans

• Total population 25 million, of which:– Serbia (7.3 m), Bosnia-Herzegovina (4.5 m), Croatia

(4.5 m), Albania (3.6 m), FYROM/Macedonia (2.1 m), Kosovo (1.8 m), Montenegro (0.7 m)

• Promise of EU membership Thessaloniki 2003• But slow progress– Heritage of conflict– Uncertain frontiers– External dependence – ‘protectorates’

• Problems of governance: need to– improve administration– strengthen judiciary– combat organised crime– combat corruption

• Need to try war criminals– Cooperation with International Court at Hague

• Progress in visa liberalisation

Croatia

Croatia

• Applied for EU membership 2003• Opened accession negotiations in 2004• Dispute with Slovenia over maritime border– now resolved

• Good progress, but more reforms needed– Problems of governance

• Prospects:– conclude negotiations in 2011?– join EU in 2013?

Macedonia

Macedonia/FYROM

• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia• Applied for EU membership 2004• Obtained ‘candidate status’ 2005• Dispute with Greece over name blocks– Opening of EU accession negotiations – Membership of NATO

Serbia

Serbia• Resentment of NATO bombing, Kosovo

– Conflict between European & national priorities• Progress

– Applied for EU membership 2009– Agreed to bilateral talks with Kosovo 2010

• Prospects– Many reforms needed– Biggest country of region

• EU was created on basis of reconciliation– Vergangenheitsbewältigung– coming to terms with the past

Kosovo

Kosovo

• Declaration of independence 2008• Not fully recognised by members of UN• Not recognised by some EU members– Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Cyprus

• Opinion of International Court 2010• Prospects– Many reforms needed

Montenegro

Montenegro

• Independence from Serbia 2006• Applied for EU membership 2009• Prospects– Many reforms needed

Albania

Albania

• Applied for EU membership 2009• Was poorest country of Europe• Now making progress• Prospects– Many reforms needed

Bosnia- Herzegovina

Bosnia- Herzegovina

• Difficult situation• Slowest progress of region• Status of country– UN ‘protectorate’

• Status of Republika Srpska– ‘state within a state’

Turkey• Longest wait: candidate since 1987• Biggest candidate: 78m now, 90m in future• Arguments in favour of membership– Economic: rapid growth, labour force– Political: geostrategic position - yes, but ...

• Problems– Copenhagen criteria: minorities, civil/military

relations, freedom of expression– Cyprus

Iceland

• Well qualified under EU’s criteria– Democracy – Europe’s oldest assembly– Economy – good despite crisis– Already applies many EU rules (EEA)– In Schengen zone (free movement of persons)

• Potential problems– Fisheries– Public opinion in Iceland

Eastern Partnership

The EU’s final frontiers

• In longer term EU may consider other East European countries as potential members:– Ukraine 47m, Belarus 10m, Moldova 3.6m– Azerbaijan 9m, Georgia 4.4m, Armenia 3.2m

• Presently in EU’s Neighbourhood Policy– an ‘accession-neutral’ relationship– enhanced by Eastern Partnership 2009– leading to Association Agreements

• Russia?

What future for the EU?

• Unique experiment in– economic & political integration

• Reconciles big & small states– non-hegemonic

• Expansion to continental scale– Europe united, whole and free

• Mission of 20th century– no more war between EU member states

• Mission for 21st century– project Europe’s interests & values in the world

Enlargement of the European Union

What Prospects for South-East Europe?

Graham Avery

United World College, Duino7 December 2010