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EMISSIONS
THE AVIATION CYCLE
RISK MANAGEMENT
NEW MARKETS
THE NEXT GENERATION
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LATEST INSIGHT FROM THE ASCEND REVIEW BOARD Olga Razzhivina, Manager of Valuation Services
INTERACTIVE QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION
WELCOME AND AN INTRODUCTION TO AVIATION 2020 Gehan Talwatte, CEO
WHERE HAVE WE BEEN, WHERE ARE WE NOW? Paul Sheridan, Head of Risk Advisory
ORDERS AND TRANSACTIONS REVIEW Eddy Pieniazek, Director & Global Head of Consultancy
HOW WILL THE FAST-PACED ASIA COMMERCIAL AVIATION MARKET DEVELOP? Christine Jie Yan, Regional Senior Analyst – Asia
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LATEST INSIGHT FROM THE ASCEND REVIEW BOARD Olga Razzhivina, Manager of Valuation Services
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1st ISTAT China Conference
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-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Valu
e ch
ange
Q1
to Q
2 20
11
A320-200 737-800 757-200
2011 aircraft values: a mixed bag
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2011 aircraft values: a mixed bag
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
1999 2004 2009
Valu
e ch
ange
Q1
to Q
2 20
11
CRJ700 CRJ900 E170 E175
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-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
1992 1997 2002 2007
A330-300 A330-300HGW
2011 aircraft values: a mixed bag
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2011 aircraft values: a mixed bag
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1997 2002 2007
Valu
e ch
ange
Q1
to Q
2 20
11
777-300 777-300ER
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WHERE HAVE WE BEEN, WHERE ARE WE NOW? Paul Sheridan, Head of Risk Advisory
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“History repeats itself, has to, nobody listens”
But we are all believers in the cycle
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Airline profitability
After interest and taxation Source: ICAO, IATA
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Airline traffic shows effect of macro factors
Distortions because of Ash cloud;
Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami;
Arab spring; but…
Overall strong fundamentals for traffic growth in 2011
RPK ASK PLF FTK AFTK FLF
+6.8% +7.8% 75.8% +2.7% +7.6% 46.1%
Global traffic YTD April 2011 vs. YTD April 2010. Source: IATA
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Orders to deliveries ratio
Ratio is above 1 in a good market
2011 deliveries are for full year, orders are for year to date Source: Ascend Online Fleets
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Market Values to Base Values – in production aircraft
Recovery has been slow to take hold Source: Ascend Aircraft Ratings
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Not all aircraft are recovering at the same rate
Recovery led by 737-800, A320s sluggish by comparison A320 A1 engines are the worst performers
Source: Ascend values history (with thanks to Nils Hallerstrom)
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Where will the trades come from?
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HOW WILL THE FAST-PACED ASIA COMMERCIAL AVIATION MARKET DEVELOP? Christine Jie Yan, Regional Senior Analyst - Asia
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2010 Regional Economy and Air Transport Overview
Source: Ascend Online Fleet; IATA WATS; IMF
North America GDP GR: 3.1% Share in World RPK: 30% Share in World ASK: 29%
Central America
South America
GDP GR: 3.5% Share in World RPK: 1% Share in World ASK: 1%
GDP GR: 6.5% Share in World RPK: 3% Share in World ASK: 4%
Asia GDP GR: 8.3% Share in World RPK: 25% Share in World ASK: 26%
Australasia GDP GR: 2.6% Share in World RPK: 4% Share in World ASK: 4%
Europe
Africa GDP GR: 4.7% Share in World RPK: 2% Share in World ASK: 3%
Middle East
GDP GR: 3.6% Share in World RPK: 8% Share in World ASK: 8%
GDP GR: 2.1% Share in World RPK: 26% Share in World ASK: 26%
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Key Asian Economies and Airline Industry Overview
Source: Ascend Online Fleet; IATA WATS; IMF
Real GDP AAGR 2001-2010
Forecast GDP AAGR 2011-2016
RPK Share in Asia 2010
In-service Commercial Aircraft Fleet
Commercial Aircraft Order Backlog
China 12% 11% 34% 1,645 826India 8% 10% 7% 418 325Indonesia 6% 8% 2% 475 271Japan 1% 2% 11% 506 185S. Korea 5% 5% 8% 239 108Singapore 6% 5% 8% 169 129Vietnam 8% 9% 2% 80 61Bangladesh 6% 8% 0% 35 10HK SAR 5% 5% 9% 190 148Malaysia 5% 6% 3% 208 225Thailand 5% 6% 5% 169 47Taiwan 4% 6% 5% 165 27Sri Lanka 6% 8% 1% 34 4Philippines 5% 6% 2% 114 30
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16 Asian Network Majors are Listed among the World’s Top 50
Source: IATA WATS; Ascend Analysis
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Asian’s Network Carriers Overview
Source: Airline Financials; Ascend Analysis
Ope
ratin
g Sc
ale
(R
PK in
bill
ions
)
EBITDAR ( USD in millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
China Southern U$ 11,156 M
Air China U$ 18,560 M
Cathay Pacific U$ 9,052 M
China Eastern U$ 8,676 M
Singapore U$ 13,434 M
EVA U$ 2,715 M
Malaysia U$ 787 M
Jet Airways U$ 856 M
Hainan U$ 420 M
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LCC Model Continues to Grow and Evolve
AirAsia 286 on order
Spring Airlines 9 on order Skymark
10 on order
Jetlite 9 on order
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Tiger 43 on order
RPK CAGR Source: Ascend Online; Ascend Analysis
In S
ervi
ce F
leet
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ORDERS AND TRANSACTIONS REVIEW Eddy Pieniazek, Director & Global Head of Consultancy
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1,400 Jet and Turboprop
Commitments
867 NEO commitments including 548 firm
964 v. 132 Airbus v Boeing
51 v. 33 Boeing edges the widebody orders
Paris Air Show 2011 – Neo news is good news
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Who and Where - Asia, Middle East, Latin America - Leasing Companies
NEO - What’s the rush? The Big Boys - A380 v B747-8 : B777 v A350 Cat & Mouse - Republican games re: A319neo v CSeries Turboprops - Frantic with ATRs, Quiet with Q400s From further afield - Sukhoi, Antonov, GECI, Viking….
What happened at Paris.......
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Qatar Airways - A380/A320neo/CSeries orders Boeing - where next? - ‘new’ 737 v 737RE v higher production
- 777 developments e.g 777-9X - focus on delivery targets 2011
American / Airbus - 757 / MD-80 replacement? Ryanair / COMAC - how real is the deal? A320 base values - no adjustment to our forecasts w.r.t. neo
succession is already built in
What didn’t happen at Paris......
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Transaction volumes are not near peak volumes
Source: Ascend Online fleets
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TURNING THE CORNER INTERACTIVE QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION
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For your special £300 webcast discount email > [email protected]
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Thank you for your participation Visit: www.ascendworldwide.com/presentations.aspx from 05 July 2011 to download the webcast presentation & recording
“The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend Worldwide Limited, its offices, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.”
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