Aviation and Climate Change:

Policies & Challenges

Aviation and Climate Change:

Policies & Challenges

Megan Smirti

National Airspace System Performance Workshop

September 7, 2007

“We need to cut the number of flights

by 87%...(this) cut in carbon

emissions means the end (to the

comforts we are used to)…These

privations affect a tiny proportion

of the world’s people. The reason

they seem so harsh is that this tiny

proportion almost certainly

includes you.”

Public Perception of Aviation

and Climate Change

Public Perception of Aviation

and Climate Change

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Ripped from the Headlines!Ripped from the Headlines!

• “Air travel latest target in climate change

fight: Technology, taxation, and rationing are

all being eyed as possible solutions.”

• “Climate activists protest Heathrow expansion: Camp set up, 'direct action' vowed as way to highlight C02 emissions”

• “Live Earth – the concerts for a climate in

crisis” were termed “Private Jets for Climate

Change”

Source: The New Yorker

…but the growth of aviation and limited possibilities of

alternative fuels make aviation’s contribution more serious

than it looks

…but the growth of aviation and limited possibilities of

alternative fuels make aviation’s contribution more serious

than it looksSource: EPA,2002.

•Transport is a large portion of GHG emissions

•Aviation is not the highest!

Aviation’s ContributionAviation’s Contribution

• Aviation emits CO2 and other pollutants

• Aviation is responsible for 3.5-5.5% of global

carbon emissions

• Aviation may be responsible for up to 10-15%

of global carbon emission by 2050

Emissions Data PointsEmissions Data Points

• CO2 emissions (DFT & DLR)

• Short haul: Estimated 240 grams per passenger-mile

• Example: FRA-LHR on a A321-100: 10.41 tons

• Long haul: 177 grams per passenger-mile

• Example: International: FRA-EWR on a B777-200ER: 154.85 tons

• Carriers Yearly Data (2004)

• Lufthansa: 11.95 million tons

• Ryan Air: 2.01 million tons

Current US Initiatives Current US Initiatives

• NextGen

• NextGen concepts claim they will lead to reduced emissions

• Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS)

• Assess the air quality impacts of airport emission sources

• I could not determine if this will include GHGs

• State Climate Action Plans

• In general, proposed plans do not include aviation but mention

the contribution of aviation

• States point to the difficulty and competitive distortions which

arise with individual state aviation emissions regulation

Local Climate Action PlansLocal Climate Action Plans

• UC Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan

• UC Berkeley Chancellor Robert Birgeneau committed the

campus to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990

levels by year 2014

• One strategy proposed is to limit air travel by increased

utilization of videoconference rooms

• Cities of Berkeley & Oakland

• City of Berkeley is aggressively reducing greenhouse gas

emissions but excludes aviation

• City of Oakland is going after a grant which may focus on

aviation and ports because of the Port of Oakland

EU Initiatives EU Initiatives

• Began limiting greenhouse gas emissions with the Kyoto protocol• Countries pledge to reduce emissions

• Regulates CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6

• As of 2006, the European Commission published a directive to include aviation as a sector in the European Emission trading scheme (EU-ETS) • EC is concerned that the growth in aviation emissions will offset

the savings in other sectors, and they will not meet their goal of CO2 reduction

• Effective 2011 (and 2012 for foreign airlines), air carriers in the EU must hold and surrender allowances for CO2 emissions and participate in a cap and trade scheme for CO2 credits.

EU-ETS Projected SchemeEU-ETS Projected Scheme

• Air carriers (domestic and international) will receive allowances to emit CO2

• 1 Allowance is to emit 1 ton of CO2 per year

• In the EU-ETS, initially allocations will be free• Yearly emissions will be measured, and carriers required to “pay”

with their allowances

• If they emit fewer tons than they are allocated, they can sell their extra allocations

• If they emit more tons than they are allocated, they can purchase allocations from other carriers or other sectors or they can purchase carbon credits (which is more costly)

• The EU claims this method will allow aviation to grow while still decreasing CO2 emissions

Scope Issues Scope Issues

• Scope of aviation activities included within the EU

ETS remains undetermined

• Intra-EU flights—this option covers emissions from flights from

one locale to another within the EU.

• Departing from EU—this option covers emissions from any flight

that departs from the EU, regardless of its destination.

• EU airspace—emissions from any flight, regardless of departure

or destination point, that are release over EU airspace are covered

by this option.

• Flights to be excluded

• Flights with MTOW < 6.28 tons

• VFR flights, training flights, state aircraft & rescue flights

Allocation Uncertainties Allocation Uncertainties

• Distribution of Allocations• 97% of allowances during the pilot phase allocated free of

charge

• Benchmarking• Allowances distributed free of charge on the basis of operators revenue ton-

kilometer

• Favors entities with new and low-emission aircraft

• Benchmark provides strong incentives for investments in new technologies

• Grandfathering• Initial allocation is based on historical emissions (2004-2006)

• Contradicts the polluter-pays principle.

• Favors legacy carriers and relatively polluting technologies

• Auctioning used for the remaining allocations

• The generally favored method by researchers is benchmark for initial allocations and auction the rest

Impacts on LCCs and Network

Carriers

Impacts on LCCs and Network

Carriers

• Network Carriers Wish List

• Scope to be departures & arrivals

• Allocations based on historical emissions

• Low Cost Carriers Wish List

• Want scope to just be departing flights

• Allocations to be based on a benchmark

• Performance is better than benchmark

• Would have excess allowances

• Study by DLR showed that these impacts are

realized

Impact on the USImpact on the US

-6.3 - 16.224.9 - 101.5

Cost to acquire extra allowances (million

euro)

2.6 - 3.613.3 - 16.3

Total Required Allocations in 2012 (no

growth – moderate growth)

2.7 - 2.911.2 - 12.0Free Allocation of Allowances (Mt CO2)

ContinentalLufthansa

• DLR study on competition between US and

EU network carriers

• A major US carrier could profit from EU-ETS or have to pay on the order of 10m Euro for extra allowances per year

• A major EU carrier will have to pay for extra allowances under all scenarios

US History with AuctionsUS History with Auctions

• Cap-and-trade mechanism is similar to slot

controls

• Slots are control in the EU but not auctioned

• Slots are controlled at a few US airports, also have

experience with slot auction at LGA

• Based on the US experience, one would suspect

if they US makes looks to regulate aviation

emissions, they will work with the experience

Why are these challenges

exciting?

Why are these challenges

exciting?

• Aviation is a field of proven and continual innovation!

• Noise

• The US has seen a 95% reduction in the number of people affected by

aircraft noise in the in the last 35 years.

• These reductions occurred during a period of six-fold growth through major

technological advances

• Fuel

• Fuel use per passenger-mile has been reduced by 60% in the last 35 years

• An environmental mitigation strategy to solve one

aspect of aviation’s impact on the environment can

produce unintended negative consequences

• Climate change solutions, which are not well known, must also be

evaluated for the implications of any policy presented

Interplay between ExternalitiesInterplay between Externalities

• Richard Branson advocates for tugs

• Believes this system would reduce fuel consumption

before aircraft take off by between 50-90 percent

• Aircraft tugging at LAX

• ATAC study found tugs increased noise

• Study found that tugged operations decrease runway

capacity and productivity

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Heathrow Protesters

Reference SlidesReference Slides

Sources Sources

• Department for Transport. Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy. Available at: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/technology/lctis/lowcarbontis?page=10

• Giving wings to emission trading: Inclusion of aviation under the European emission trading system (ETS): design and impacts. Delft, July 2005.http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/aviation_et_study.pdf

• Monbiot, G. Heat: How to Stop the Planet From Burning. South End Press,2007.

• Scheelhaase, Janina D., Grimme, Wolfgang G. Emissions Trading for international aviation – an estimation of the economic impact on selected European airlines. Journal of Air Transport Management 13 (2007) 253-263.

• Scheelhaase, Janina D., Grimme, Wolfgang G., Schaefer, Martin. How does the latest EU Proposal on Aviation and Climate Change affect competition between European and US airlines? Presented at the Air Transport Research Society 2007 World Conference, June 2007, Berkeley CA.

• Waitz, I, et. el. AVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: A National Vision Statement, Framework for Goals and Recommended Actions. http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/partner/reports/congrept_aviation_envirn.pdf

Monitoring Uncertainties Monitoring Uncertainties

• How will airlines report their emissions• Flights will be evaluated both ex-post vs. ex-ante for fuel burn

• If emissions are based on the carbon content of measured trip fuel, aircraft operators run the risk of paying emission penalties for delays resulting from ATM problems. This could be avoided by using an ex ante emission figure as a basis, to reward airlines if they do better, but not punish them if they do worse

• The major European air carriers expressed their preference for an ex post method

• Those who emit more than their allocation must purchase carbon credits or purchase allocations from another airline or sector • If they do not, countries are barred from emission trading

• In Europe, a penalty payment of 40 Euros per ton of carbon dioxide for which allowances cannot be delivered

Example Example

• A study by ATAC corporation found that tugs

at LAX increased the

ATAC Study: The Impact of Towing Aircraft

from Runway Exit to Gates at LAX

ATAC Study: The Impact of Towing Aircraft

from Runway Exit to Gates at LAX

• Los Angeles World Airports studied a variety of ways to

minimize or eliminate runway incursions at LAX

• Two alternatives that were studied for the South Airfield

were A4 and B1B

• Alternative A4 added an end-around taxiway

• Alternative B1B moved Runway 7R-25L south ~55 ft and added a

center taxiway between Runways 7R-25L & 7L-25R

• Environmental impact

• Alternative A4 increased taxi noise in El Segundo

• Alternative B1B shifted noise to the south, further into the City of El

Segundo

25L

25R

CTA

24L

24R

Proposed End-Around

Taxiway

A

AA C

Proposed A4 AlternativeProposed A4 Alternative

A4 Airfield with tug apronA4 Airfield with tug apron

29th International Air Transport Conference

CTA

Tug Hook-up

25L

25R

Tug Apron

State Climate Action PlansState Climate Action Plans

Source: Climate Science

Why are we concerned about

Climate Change

Why are we concerned about

Climate Change

•10.41 tons•10.41 tons