Aviation Week Space Technology - 14-21 October 2013

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Multi-INT: Demonstrated and Proven Effective

L-3 Mission Integration’s goal is to provide soldiers with the world’s best situational awareness. Our

superior designs have given warfi ghters more than 450,000 hours of aerial intelligence, surveillance and

reconnaissance on over 60 platforms. These programs are providing reconfi gurable, multi-INT solutions

that are available today.

CAPABILITY DELIVERED – COMBAT PROVEN

SPYDR: MULTI-INT ISR DEMONSTRATED

Mission Integration L-3com.com

This advertisement consists of L-3 Communications Corporation general capabilities information that does not contain controlled technical data as defi ned within the International Traffi c in Arms (ITAR) Part 120.10 or Export Administration Regulations (EAR) Part 734.7-11.

Use of this U.S. DoD image does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

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Morris (Associate Managing Editor), Michael Bruno,

Amy Butler, Michael Fabey, Sean Meade, Frank Morring, Jr.,

Bill Sweetman (Chief Editor, Defense Technology Edition)

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(Associate Managing Editor), Sean Broderick, John Croft,

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Norris, Bradley Perrett, Jessica Salerno, Adrian Schofeld,

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Departments

10-12 Feedback

14 Who’s Where

16-18 The World

20 Up Front

22 Commander’s Intent

24 Inside Business Aviation

26 Airline Intel

28 In Orbit

31 Washington Outlook

87 Classifed

88 Contact Us

89 Aerospace Calendar

theWorlD

16 albertD.Wheelondies, led develop-

ment of frst recon satellite for CIA,

was major force at Hughes Aircraft

18 astronautscottCarpenterdies, was

second American to orbit the

Earth and backup to John Glenn

CommerCIalaIrCraFt32 Boeing-airbus balance in one of most

important air transport markets

is shifting with JAL’s A350 order

34 high-profleordercancellation

casts doubt on whether Airbus

can meet its A380 sales target

spaCe

36 spaceshiptwotests on track for

high-speed feather, higher altitudes

and supersonic reentry

37 expectationsarehigh for new SpaceX

Falcon 9 to prove military and

commercial satellite launch

capabilities

UnmanneDsYstems

38 long-runningWK450 Watchkeeper

unmanned air system could now

be on the cusp of entering service

39 royalnavyproject’s goal is to land

an AgustaWestland-built optionally

piloted helo on a ship next year

DeFense

40 pratt&Whitney is the latest contractor

under microscope of Pentagon audi-

tors who push exacting standards

41 newcommunications for V-22

considered key for Marine Corps’

future Air Ground Task Force

43 IsraelispitchKfr to smaller air

forces as fourth-generation

fghter at one-third of the price

52 U.s.navymullscompetition for new

missile to keep Chinese carriers

at bay, and in response to DF-21

53 high-performance combat aircraft

are next targets for Northrop

Grumman’s laser jammer

enGIneerInG

44 Bellandsikorsky/Boeingteam

competing against two relative un-

knowns for high-speed helo demo

aIrtransport

46 europeanregional airline ofcials

speak of renewed optimism, des-

pite fgures and individual cases

48 Dealtolimitgreenhouse-gas emissions

reached at ICAO Assembly is a success

for aviation or a setback for environment

49 safetyagency links pilot error to

fatal airship crash during European

tour sponsored by Goodyear

50 alitaliaonropes again, less than fve

years after it was saved from bank-

ruptcy, bought by private investors

Bell Helicopter is betting that the planned superior speed

of the V-280 tiltrotor will win support from the U.S. Army.

Bell’s CEO says the Valor will cost half as much as the

V-22, addressing some critics who say it is too expensive. 77

This week, Aviation Week publishes two editions, both double issues. The cover at the far left features the frst business aircraft to be developed in China —Avic subsidiary Caiga’s Primus 150, an all-composite six-seater based on a U.S. kitplane design and powered by single 850-shp General Electric H85 turboprop. The aircraft is set to fy soon, but its market is uncertain as Chinese tastes continue to favor large business jets (page 58). Photo by Bobby Yip for Reuters via Newscom. The cover of our Defense Technology edition shows Karem Aircraft’s concept for an advanced rotorcraft for the U.S. Army (page 44). Elsewhere in both editions are articles on Airbus’s upset win over Boeing in Japan (page 32), SpaceShipTwo’s test fights (page 36) and the skepticism about business jet operator VistaJet (page 75).

ontheCoVers:

AVIATION WEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

6 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21, 2013 aviationWeek.com/awst

Digital Extras Tap this icon in articles in the digital edition of AW&ST for exclusive features. If you have not signed up to receive your digital subscription, go to

AviationWeek.com/awstcustomers

Winner 2013

ContentsOctober 14/21, 2013 Volume 175 Number 36

78 armypursuing foreign sales of U.S.-

built helicopters to lower per-unit

costs and secure multiyear buys

80 U.s.armyandairForce embrac-

ing the National Guard even more,

to meet federal spending caps

CommerCIal

aIrCraFtUpDate

81 proflesofaircraftprograms pro-

vide updates on commercial air-

craft in service and in development

eDItorIals

90 lessontorotorcraftindustry: Don’t ignore

your largest customer, but don’t let it

dictate technology strategy either

90 Citizensmustaddress the system used

to create congressional districts if they

want diferent results in Washington

aVIonICs

51rockwellCollins

propUlsIon

55 europe’saerospace

hybrid-electric propul-

rotorCraFt

56 agustaWestland is embarking on anew civil certifcation program for its troubled medium/heavy AW101

BUsInessaVIatIon

58 Chinabuying into business-aircraftproduction, but the mismatch is that buyers are favoring imports

62 Kingair350iexemplifes a smaller Beechcraft, back from bankruptcy with more modest ambitions

65 newgenerationof large business aircraft could bring sea change in airframer-propulsion relationship

68 newbusinessaircraft in develop-ment range from single-engine turboprops to ultra-large-size jets

72 twokeyDayJetcomponents making a comeback: Eclipse VLJ and software that was a secret weapon

74 legacy450and500 part of Embraer’s agenda to ofer a product in every major bizjet category

75 VistaJetbettingits model of serving operationally difcult areas will work in more-mainstream markets

armYaVIatIon77 Bell,Karemand AVX working

on designs for helos to replace the Black Hawk and Apache

Gu

y No

rr

is/AW

&sT

October 14/21, 2013 Volume 175 Number 36


A round-up of what you’re reading on AviationWeek.com

A debated exchange is raging within our online community following the announcement that Japan

Airlines has selected Airbus widebodies in what was historically a market exclusive to Boeing. Read

about it and comment online (ow.ly/pG2uf) and peruse our analysis of the A350 win on page 32.

The deadline for Aviation Week’s annual

Photo Contest is fast approaching. See the

winning entries from 2012 on our Facebook page

(ow.ly/pG0aV) and enter before Oct. 20 for a

chance to see your photo published in the maga-

zine. Enter at aviationWeek.com/photo

photoContestStratolaunch Systems is quietly starting production of its commercial

air launch space access system. The Orbital Sciences-built multistage

booster will measure around 128 ft. long. Read and comment about it

on our On Space blog (ow.ly/pEqnG). aviationWeek.com/onspace

Get detailed fnancial information

and data on feets of hundreds of

airlines through our premium online

service—the Aviation Week Intel-

ligence Network. aviationWeek.com/awin

Last week Teal Group analyst Richard

Aboulafa, writing in our Up Front

column (Oct. 7, p. 16), questioned

whether there is a market for Textron’s Scorpion. Reader

FlightDreamz says: “Anyone else remember Burt Rutan’s

ARES’ Scaled Model 151? That ultimately didn’t fnd a

market and I fear the same fate for Textron’s Scorpion.”

Read more—and join the discussion—in Ares, our defense

technology blog (ow.ly/pG2Uq). AviationWeek.com/ares

reaDer

Comment

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Content Keep up with all the news and blogs from

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Risk Mitigation Was key

Regarding Orbital Sciences Corp.’s approach to Cygnus design as covered in “Skinning the Cat” (AW&ST Sept. 30, p. 20), Orbital did not “buy com-ponents wherever possible to avoid reinventing the wheel.”

The late David Low, a former astro-naut who was serving as senior vice president and program manager for Orbital’s commercial orbital trans-portation services (COTS), and I (an Orbital executive at the time) estab-lished the approach for COTS in about half an hour in his ofce (at the start of our proposal efort).

We did this with one objective in mind—to minimize risk in the program by capital-izing on our partners’ experience. Alenia knows how to build pressurized structures for the International Space Station (ISS) (Orbital does not). Orbital knows how to build satellites and spacecraft (in particu-lar the STAR-2 geosta-

to build unpressurized cargo carriers for ISS (in particular, the Express cargo carrier for ISS). Orbital bid both the pressurized and unpressur-ized cargo carriers for COTS, but not the crew-transfer function.

We knew an Alenia pressurized module would be more expensive, and that Orbital or another U.S. company probably could build a pressurized cargo carrier, but we opted to go with experience.

Development issue risks were perceived to be very high. We were particularly concerned with passing the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) safety review processes for ISS (manned) space hardware and software. Orbital never had a previous contract with NASA JSC. We knew there was a real cost risk there, and that we could not quantify it to our se-nior management. There were enough perceived programmatic hazards in COTS (for NASA and Orbital) and we certainly did not need to add technical ones to the mix.Jim Dufy, Director of Strategic Planning FAA Commercial Space Transportation OfceWAShINgTON, D.C.

abandoning space

Three recent space-related articles speak volumes. The frst two are in the same issue (AW&ST Sept. 30): “Launcher Leap” (page 22) followed by “What’s Next” (page 24). hot on the heels of this printing, the Avia-tionWeek.com Space Channel (Oct. 3) ofered “NASA’s J-2X Engine To Be Mothballed After Testing.”

The frst article outlined China’s plans for a more capable Moon rocket than the Saturn V; the second depicted China’s planned Mir-class space sta-tion. And the third covered the U.S.’s human space exploration program.

stantial strides toward a new heavy-lift rocket and a new space station, while the U.S. can’t so much as keep a single 40-year-old element of its rocket warmed over. While China is rapidly advancing toward a new space station, the best the U.S. can do is “hope . . . that commercial interests will orbit their own stations eventually.”

Taken together, these articles, along with recent events (sequestra-tion and the government shutdown), coupled with the dysfunctional politics that precipitated them, point to one inconvenient truth: The U.S. is now not a space-faring nation, and never will be again.George C. MantishUNTSVILLE, ALA.

knoWing When to Fold theM

I found the comments of U.S. Air Force gen. Mike hostage in “Life Post-Cuts” (AW&ST Sept. 23, p. 31) in align-ment with those of reader Thomas Parker in his letter in the Feedback section of the same issue (page 10).

The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) exemplifes a military-industrial complex run amok, creating solutions to problems that do not exist. With an

ever-progressing Eastern capability to defeat stealth technologies in the realm of air defense identifcation and interdiction, we are betting the farm on an airframe that may arrive too late to be of real use. Any enemies have utilized the JSF’s absurd development time to make substantial and anticipa-tory changes to their ability to defeat whatever advances may have been fantastic a decade ago.

The desire to replace (versus re-engineer) a perfectly capable and track-proven trainer like the T-38, eliminate the intelligence, surveillance and recon-naissance platform (MC-12)—best-suited to the low-intensity conficts and brush war scenarios that we will face in the future—and retire the A-10 (which remains the only serious and purposely dedicated, robust and properly armed close-air-support asset we possess) sug-gests an operational viewpoint fueled not by realistic and historic precedent, but rather one shaped by bets already made and money on the table.

There is a time to fold your cards.We stopped making battleships some

time ago and much institutional knowl-edge of battleship building was lost with that decision. But the reality is that we do not face the imminent prospect of global war; therefore, such an asset is not needed. Likewise with JSF.

But we do have a pressing need for simple, reliable, cost-efective aircraft that serve real and specifc purposes.

Adm. Mike Mullen correctly stated that our national debt is the greatest threat to our national security. We can operate and maintain a very capable national defense with the budget remaining after sequestration, but tough choices will need to be made and most of them should not involve exotic solutions. Todd FredricksAMESVILLE, OhIO

tiltRotoRs and URban coMbat

It seems that more and more companies are turning to advanced tiltrotor designs for a variety of uses,

Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes the opinions of its readers on issues raised in the magazine. Address letters to the Executive Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1200 G St., Suite 922, Washington, D.C. 20005. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail to: [email protected]

Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and you must give a genuine identification, address and daytime telephone number. We will not print anonymous letters, but names will be withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.


tionary satellites). Orbital knows how To sum up: China is making sub-

The X-51A Waverider team has received the 2013

John R. Alison Award from the Air Force Association for

most outstanding contribution by industry to national

defense. The scramjet-powered aircraft recently fl ew

the longest air-breathing hypersonic fl ight in history.

Its success signals an era of advancement no less

dramatic than the beginning of the Jet Age. Boeing, the

Air Force Research Laboratory and Aerojet Rocketdyne

are honored to share this prestigious award.

most recently shown in the proposals to replace the Sikorsky Uh-60 Black hawk and Boeing Ah-64 feets with the Bell helicopter V-280 Valor and the tiltrotor now being designed by Karem Aircraft (AW&ST Oct. 7, p. 13). While the tiltrotor capabilities of speed, range and vertical takeof and landing are advantageous, as demonstrated during Operation Unifed Protector in 2011, they require a wide wingspan to function.

It has been predicted that conficts

will increasingly be fought in heavy urban settings, as witnessed by Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and gaza. Buildings are close-set, leaving airspace at a premium. given their wide wingspan, tiltrotors will be hard-pressed to fnd space to fy in between buildings.

We should not consign tiltrotors to the design dustbin, but relying on them as a replacement for most U.S. Army helos would be a grave error.Jacob R. KatzPROVIDENCE, R.I.

too little, too late, icaoI fnd it difcult to get excited about

the International Civil Aviation Orga-nization’s new plan to address global climate issues (AW&ST Sept. 23, p. 43). ICAO has had since the Kyoto Treaty of 1997 to develop a blueprint for inter-national aviation. Nothing happened until the European Union proposed an Emissions Trading System (ETS), which at least got ICAO’s attention and self-righteous indignation.

Under pressure, the EU has delayed the implementation of the ETS to give ICAO the chance to come up with an alternative. ICAO’s webpage on Oct. 4 trumpets its endorsement of a “dramat-ic market-based measure (MBM) agree-ment” for global action. The member states will report back to ICAO in 2016 with a proposal for an MBM plan that can be implemented by 2020.

From Kyoto to 2020 is 23 years—enough time to ft in two World Wars, Korean and Vietnam wars and sundry other skirmishes. And there is no guar-antee of success, because the U.S. and others already have reservations.

The good news is that the aviation industry is fnally waking up to the fact that global warming is a serious con-cern. I look forward to a new generation of unconventional aircraft powered by biofuels that will meet the International Air Transport Association’s emissions goal of a 50% reduction by 2050.

The airlines’ commercial imperatives have far more chance of addressing cli-mate issues than the slow self-congrat-ulatory bureaucratic processes of ICAO.Robin StanierTORRENS, AUSTRALIA

ailing acRonyM“Introducing ALIS” (AW&ST

Sept. 16, p. 45) gave me pause. here is a $448 million development

program with a future value in the bil-lions that will coordinate and manage the logistics and operation of the F-35, the world’s most sophisticated and expensive fghter. And yet, those who created and are implementing it believe that the acronym for Autonomic Infor-mation Logistics System is ALIS. I hope this is not indicative of additional poten-tial surprises coded into the network.Roger CurtissDEER hARBOR, WASh.

(The reader has correctly spotted that AW&ST inverted the acronym’s defni-tion. It was and is Autonomic Logistics Information System.)

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14 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21, 2013 AviationWeek.com/awst

telstaedt is chairman/CEO of Waste Connections Inc., and Smith is president/CEO and director of the Las Vegas-based Boyd Gaming Corp.

paul Saunders has become global product manager for Flatirons Solutions, Irvine, Calif. He was operations director for Conduce Software and has worked for Eurocopter and Triumph Air Repair in the U.K. and Dubai.

John “Jay” neely, 3rd (see photo), has been appointed vice president-law and public afairs. for the Gulfstream Aerospace Corp., Savannah, Ga. He was deputy general counsel. kevin valik has been named sales di-rector for Delaware, New Jersey and New York City. He was sales manager at the Dassault Falcon Jet Corp. for eastern Canada and the mid-Atlantic and mid-Central regions of the U.S.

Ethiopian Airlines CEO te-wolde gebremariam, Shelter-Box USA Inc. President emily Sperling and Team Rubicon co-founder William Mcnulty have joined the advisory council of Washington-based Airlink.

puja Mahajan (see photo) has been named chief operat-ing ofcer of business aircraft charter and management com-pany Elit’Avia, Ljubljana, Slove-nia. She has held management positions with Bombardier Aerospace and Pratt & Whit-ney Canada.

greg kinsella, president and CEO of Key Air, has been appointed to the board of governors of the Alexandria, Va.-based Air Charter Safety Foundation.

Marc Welinski has become deputy director of broadcast and broadband for Paris-based Euroconsult. He was director of marketing and commercial strategy at Eutelsat.

neil vernon (see photos) has been appointed Hong Kong-based Asia-Pacfc vice president-sales and ryan ellis has been promoted to sales man-ager for continental Europe from U.K.

Who’s Where

Samuel Adcock

John Neely, 3rd

Kerry Beresford

Puja Mahajan

Scott Nordstrom

Neil Vernon

Ryan Ellis

Samuel Adcock (see photo) has been appointed vice president/general manager of American

Eurocopter’s production plant in Co-lumbus, Miss. earl Walker, who has been senior director/general manager will become senior director for govern-ment relations. Adcock has been se-nior vice president-strategy and busi-ness development for parent EADS North America.

John bendoraitis has been named senior vice president/chief operating ofcer of Spirit Airlines. He has been chief operating ofcer of Frontier Airlines and was president of Comair Airlines.

george Ullrich has become senior vice president-strategy development for Applied Research Associates Inc., Albuquerque, N.M. He has been chief technology officer of the Schafer Corp. and was senior vice president-advanced technology programs at the Science Applications Interna-tional Corp.

kerry beresford (see photo) has been appointed senior vice president-government programs for Bye Aero-space Inc. of Denver.

vanessa hudson has been named senior executive vice president for the Americas for Qantas Airways. She succeeds Wally Mariani, who has re-tired. Hudson was executive manager for strategy and planning for Qantas Domestic.

James hetherington has become Riyadh, Saudi Arabia-based director of Middle East operations for Salient Fed-eral Solutions Inc., Fairfax, Va. He was chief of the International Airmen Div. at Secretary of the Air Force, Interna-tional Afairs, and had been the U.S. defense secretary’s military adviser to the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

Scott nordstrom (see photo) has been appointed director of business development for Zenith Aviation, Fredericksburg, Va. He was president of the International Trade Group and had been vice president-corporate sales and services for AvCraft Sup-port Services.

ronald J. Mittelstaedt and keith e. Smith have been appointed to the board of directors of SkyWest Inc. and its subsidiaries, SkyWest Airlines Inc. and ExpressJet Airlines Inc. Mit-

account manager for Virgin Atlantic Cargo. Vernon was manager for the Middle East and Africa at BMI Cargo.

graham Maxa has been appointed fnance director of Fine Tubes, Plymouth, Eng-land. He was group fnancial controller at the Oxfordshire company Prodrive.

bryan Jones has been named sales manager for At-lantic Fasteners, West Spring-feld, Mass.

USAF Maj. Gen. Steven l. kwast has been appointed commander of the Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education/vice commander of Air Univer-sity of the Air Education and Training Command, Maxwell AFB, Ala. He has been director of the Air Force Quadrennial Defense Review in the Ofce of the Vice Chief of Staf at USAF Headquarters at the Pentagon. Maj. Gen. Samuel D. cox has been nominated for promotion to lieutenant general and ap-pointment as deputy chief of staf for manpower, personnel and services at USAF Head-quarters. He has been director of operations and plans at U.S. Transportation Command Headquarters, Scott AFB, Ill. Brig. Gen. Duke Z. rich-ardson has been appointed vice commander of the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center of Air Force Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Col. Shaun Q. Morris has been selected for

promotion to brigadier general and as-signment as director of the command’s Air Force Security Assistance and Co-operation Directorate. He has been se-nior materiel leader and KC-46 system program manager of the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center. c

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new Boeing shuffleBoeing Commercial Airplanes is restructuring its marketing and busi-ness development unit following the unexpected announcement by Mike Bair—the vice president who leads the current strategic, planning and market-ing group—that he will retire. Bair, who is 57, has been marketing and business development chief since February 2012, following a period as leader of the 737 development group in the run-up to the 737 MAX launch. Previously, he was vice president of business strategy and mar-keting for Commercial Airplanes but is best remembered as vice president and general manager of the 787 program. With Bair’s departure, Boeing Com-mercial Airplanes Chief Executive Ray Conner is dividing up the roles overseen by the previous structure. Marketing will now go to the sales group led by Vice President Randy Tinseth, who in turn, reports to global sales Senior Vice President John Wojick. The strategy ele-ments, including products, environment and international business development, will be folded into the fnance group led by Kevin Schemm, who will be head of fnance and strategy.

Avianca Takes to ATJ FuelAvianca Brasil has selected Byogy to supply renewable biofuel and signed an oftake agreement for alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuel. The U.S. biofuel developer already has an agreement in place in Brazil to convert ethanol produced from sugarcane into jet fuel. In March 2012, the company announced a feedstock agreement with Brazilian sugarcane ethanol producer Itapecuru Bioenergia. ATJ is expected to be approved for use in aircraft during 2014, and Byogy CEO Kevin Weiss says commercial production is on tap to begin in Brazil between late 2015 and mid-2016.

scotland To Buy prestwickThe Scottish government has an-nounced a plan to nationalize Prestwick International Airport near Glasgow. The airport, owned by Infratil, is losing around £2 million ($3.2 million) per year. Infratil has been trying to fnd a buyer for the facility since March 2012. The Scottish government plans to buy the airport and let a private company run it, in a bid to safeguard jobs in an area that has high unemployment levels.

spAce

Juno safes itselfEngineers at Lockheed Martin and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory were down-loading data from NASA’s Juno probe late last week after the $1.1 billion space-craft put itself into safe mode during a close Earth fyby designed to sling it to-ward Jupiter. Early indications suggest-ed the spacecraft was in good shape and could complete its mission to collect data on the gas giant’s structure and com-position from a polar orbit around the planet. “Based on the fact that there are no failed components on the spacecraft, this is not going to impede our mission,” says Tim Gasparrini, the Juno program manager at Lockheed Martin Space Sys-tems, which is controlling the mission for JPL. Gasparrini says the spacecraft safed itself while in solar eclipse on Oct. 9 as it passed within about 300 mi. above South Africa for a gravity assist to Jupi-ter. The European Space Agency deep-space antenna at Malargue, Argentina, had dropped below the horizon, cutting of communications with the spacecraft

on closest approach, and when commu-nications were restored through the U.S. Deep Space Network facility at Perth, Australia, the spacecraft had safed itself. Controllers have remained in contact with Juno, Gasparrini said Oct. 9, and were downlinking data with an eye to developing a plan “within a few days” for restoring normal operations. All of the spacecraft components are in nominal condition, Gasparrini afrmed. Juno is the frst solar-powered spacecraft ever sent to Jupiter, using high-efciency gallium-arsenide solar cells mounted on three huge arrays that give the spacecraft most of its 66-ft. diameter to generate about 400 watts during data-gathering at the planet.

changing TackRussian Prime Minister Dmitry Med-vedev announced Oct. 10 the appoint-ment of Deputy Defense Minister Oleg Ostapenko to replace Vladimir Pop-ovkin as head of Russian space agency Roscosmos. The announcement comes as Moscow reviews proposals to cen-tralize oversight of its space industry in an efort to curb government waste

obituary: Albert D. “Bud” Wheelon, who led the development of the frst reconnais-

sance satellite for the CIA and helped lead Hughes Aircraft to dominance as a manufac-

turer of satellites, died in Montecito, Calif., reportedly of a form of cancer. He was 84.

Wheelon also was a member of the presidential commission that investigated the loss

of the space shuttle Challenger in 1986.

Born in Moline, Ill., Wheelon moved to Southern California and worked as a teen

at Douglas Aircraft, where his father was an engineer. Wheelon earned a doctorate in

physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology at 23 and went to work for what

became TRW. In 1962, he became the CIA’s frst chief of science and technology. It was

there that he ran the secret Corona photo-reconnaissance satellite program, a triumph

of technology and perseverance that did not become public until the 1990s and its

pivotal role in the Cold War could be appreciated widely.

Wheelon returned to California in 1967 and took over Hughes’s satellite business, growing

over the years to be the leading builder of communications satellites. He was forced out in

1988, when General Motors acquired Hughes. The satellite enterprise is now part of Boeing.

The World For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com


AP/W

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Albert D. Wheelon (second from left) and fellow members of the commission inves-tigating the 1986 space shuttle Chal-lenger accident, including former Aviation Week Editor-in-Chief Robert B. Hotz (far left), inspect shuttle hardware.

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AW&ST/S&P Market Indices as of 10/9/2013

AW Aerospace 25

AW Airline 25

S&P 500

2122.6

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INDEX VALUE 10/9MARKET

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and restore confdence in the nation’s space program following a spate of spacecraft and launch vehicle failures in recent years. They include the fery July 2 crash of a Proton M/Block DM3 carrying three Russian Glonass navi-gation satellites that veered wildly of course due to misplaced angular rate sensors on the rocket’s frst stage.

DeFense

Lowered expectationsSmarting from South Korea’s decision to sideline Boeing’s F-15 Silent Eagle and reopen bidding for a new fghter, the company is now strategizing to capture some—but not all—of a forthcoming buy. Boeing Defense, Space and Security President Dennis Muilenburg says the company is still investing in development of the Silent Eagle, which has conformal fuel tanks, a stealthy weapons bay, fy-by-wire controls and a digital electronic warfare system. Boeing remains in the game for Seoul’s yet-to-be-revamped F-X Phase 3 competition. The original requirement was for 60 fghters to replace aging F-4s and F-5s beginning in 2017. Last month, Seoul sidelined a recommendation from its own procure-ment authority for the Silent Eagle (see page 22). Boeing’s ofer was the only one found to comply with the bidding rules and stay within the 8.3 trillion won ($7.7 billion) budget. Muilenburg says South Korea, which is already an F-15 operator, might be interested in a mixed buy of the Silent Eagle and another competitor, most likely the F-35. “The acquisition that was just delayed was an acquisition for 60 aircraft at the same time. . . . If you are looking at budget constraints, schedule constraints, desires for technol-

ogy, perhaps a mixed buy or split buy of some sort” could be an option in Seoul, Muilenburg said during an Oct. 10 roundtable with Aviation Week.

Helmet FitsThe Pentagon is proceeding with upgrades to correct defciencies in the original F-35 helmet made by Lockheed Martin subcontractor Vision Systems International (VSI). The F-35 Joint Program Ofce on Oct. 10 issued a stop-work order to BAE, the alternate helmet developer. Plans to conduct a fight demonstration of the two have been dashed, resulting in a cost avoidance of $45 million to continue maturing and testing the alternate design, accord-ing to a statement from the F-35 ofce. Owing to problems with the night-vision camera and jitter encountered by VSI, a

joint venture between Rockwell Col-lins and Elbit, the F-35 program spent roughly $60 million for BAE’s work as a backup plan. Those glitches are being fxed in the new Gen-3 version slated for fight testing in the F-35 in early 2015. In lockstep with the downselect, the F-35 program executive ofcer, USAF Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan, has cemented a price for the upgraded, “Gen-3” helmet that will be 12% lower than the price today, according to the program ofce.

carter Leaving pentagonDeputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter will step down on Dec. 4, leaving the Pentagon after 4.5 years. Carter joined the administration at the start of President Barack Obama’s frst term as the Pentagon’s top acquisition ofcial under then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates. In 2011, Carter was promoted to become the second-highest ranking civilian in the Defense Department under Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

c-130 for AfghanistanThe Afghan air force has taken deliv-ery of its frst Lockheed C-130H Her-cules. The frst of two ex-U.S. Air Force aircraft were handed over on Oct. 9 in Kabul as the fedgling air arm is trying to rebuild its airlift capability after the USAF halted support for its Alenia C-27As at the end of 2012. Afghanistan becomes the 70th country to operate the Hercules.

The World


obituary: The second American to orbit the Earth,

Mercury astronaut M. Scott Carpenter, died Oct. 10 in

Denver of complications following a stroke. He was 88.

A naval aviator during the Korean War who went on to

become a test pilot at NAS Patuxent River, Md., Carpenter

conducted some of the frst scientifc experiments in space

and ate some of the frst solid food consumed there.

In the photo, Carpenter checks out the main pressure

bulkhead on Aurora 7, the capsule that took him through

three orbits over 4 hr., 54 min. on May 24, 1962. His sole

spacefight ended 250 mi. downrange from his target in the

Caribbean after malfunctions in an attitude sensor, and the

spacecraft propulsion system forced him to control reentry

manually. Carpenter was recovered safely by a Navy helicop-

ter after 3 hr. foating in a life raft.

Carpenter later became an “aquanaut” in the Navy’s Sealab program, and subsequently

was grounded from spacefight after a motorbiking injury. He retired from NASA in 1967.

As backup pilot on the frst U.S. orbital fight, Carpenter wished his colleague well as he

cleared the launch pad, famously broadcasting “Godspeed, John Glenn.” With Carpenter’s

death, Glenn, 92, is the last surviving member of the Mercury 7 corps of U.S. astronauts.

NASA/NeWScom/File Photo

From serving his country in the skies over Vietnam to testing helicopters for the Army today, Grady

brings the same high level of commitment to his job and to our nation. Currently, he serves at our

manufacturing facility in Columbus, Mississippi, where more than 50 percent of our employees are

veterans. They’re proud to have delivered more than 270 UH-72A Lakota helicopters to date – all on

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Armed Aerial Scout. The uniforms may change, but the commitment stays the same.

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Grady Wilson

UH-72A Lakota Test Pilot

U.S. Army Veteran

New Uniform, Same Commitment

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

U.S. Enplanements Per Capita

Source: FAA

Up Front

commentary

Then came the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, followed by a major global reces-sion near the end of the decade. Aviation trips per capita de-clined to 2.33 in 2012 from 2.52 in 2000. In 2011, the FAA pushed back the estimated arrival of the 1 billion threshold to 2021. Today, it is 2027.

One could con-clude that terror-ism and reduced economic activity impacted the public’s propensity to fy. However, the U.S. economy grew by nearly 50% from 2000 to 2012, and nominal GDP per capita increased by about 40%. The sad truth is that air travel in the world’s largest market, currently 25% of global demand, is stagnant and in its 14th year of being decoupled from economic growth.

So what happened, and what does this mean for aviation stakeholders? First, the industry needs to revisit its growth expectations. The U.S. market is mature, and Europe/Commonwealth of Independent States—30% of global air trafc—is rapidly following suit. Western Europe may already be there. If half of the global market is mature,

Conventional wisdom is that air travel is directly tied to GDP

growth. Expand the economy, increase discretionary in-

come and air travel demand growth follows. Airline strategies,

infrastructure investments and aircraft production forecasts are

built on this correlation. And historically, it wasn’t a bad bet: Fol-

lowing airline deregulation, U.S. enplanements (trips) grew from

326 million in 1979 to 710 million by 2000. At the FAA’s annual

Aviation Forecast Conference in 2001, the agency predicted U.S.

airlines would pass the magic mark of 1 billion passengers car-

ried annually by 2012.

The Great StagnationGlobal air travel will not rise as quickly as

forecast, partially thanks to the maturity factor

spending their discretionary incomes on shiny objects like smartphones? Or is the U.S. middle class, faced with stagnant incomes, and rising health care and education costs, simply get-ting squeezed?

Finally, stakeholders should contem-plate a slower-growth future. Consider that if we are correct and the increase in air travel is 20% lower than antici-pated, then over the next decade:

•Air trafc growth will be 625 billion fewer revenue passenger miles than current projections.

•The air transport industry will require more than 2,000 fewer new aircraft.

•Demand for aerostructures will shrink by $70 billion and aeroengines by $40 billion.

•Demand for aircraft maintenance will decline by $50 billion.

Of course, aircraft production rates are linked to more than air travel growth; witness today’s large backlogs. Historically, 80% of deliveries are de-rived from air travel growth, and 20% for aircraft replacement. But today’s high fuel costs and low cost of capital mean that 50% of new deliveries are for replacements, temporarily infating demand. This will not last in the long run, and production rates will eventu-ally revert to the mean and track with underlying trafc growth.

While this is bad news for original equipment manufacturers and their suppliers, slower growth has several positive attributes, including lower carbon emissions, reduced airport congestion and less crowded aircraft. And it is not necessarily bad news for airlines. The U.S. air travel market has mostly consolidated in response to maturity, helping most airlines posting solid earnings and improved return on investment. With hope, a federal judge will get the memo that consolidation is a natural response to maturity and reject the U.S. Justice Department’s bid to block the planned merger of American Airlines and U.S. Airways.

Above all, the maturity phenomenon should serve as a reminder that indus-tries cannot grow in an unconstrained fashion forever. I’m not sure exactly when the U.S. will fnally reach 1 billion enplanements. But I’m not holding my breath. c

then the rest of the market and the developing economies must grow at unrealistically high rates for a con-siderable period if current long-term forecasts of 5% trafc growth are to be achieved. ICF SH&E’s forecast is 3.9% growth over the next decade, which is approximately 20% lower than the industry consensus.

Second, more research is needed on sociological behavior and its impact on fying. Clearly, during the last 14 years, consumers in North America have chosen to spend their discretion-ary incomes on goods and services other than fying. Could time be the scarce factor that leads to an air trav-el plateau? Is the Skype generation more interested in “virtual” trips and


By Kevin Michaels

Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is a vice president in ICF SH&E’s Ann Arbor, Mich., ofce, where he leads its Aerospace & MRO practice.

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commentary

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In accordance with a common defnition of insanity, the luckless agency must now go through the same process in hopes of a diferent outcome. DAPA has caught one break: Eurofghter will be back for Round 2, so DAPA will not be tied across a sole-source barrel after throwing out binding ofers presented in 2013.

Fighter procurements are pon-derous, complicated and subject to political interference. The last-named attribute is a feature, not a bug: The price tag gets the treasury involved, other military services have to vote, and the relationship between the sup-plier and its own national government will last longer than most marriages.

That said, Korea’s decision stands out because the government had tried to do better. After Dassault noisily bailed out of F-X1 in 2002, alleging that the fx had been in for a U.S. win from the outset, Korea tried to clean up its act by forming DAPA. Whether or not it was based on a study of Swe-den’s FMV (AW&ST Feb. 25, p. 12), the Korean agency emerged with similar key features: civilian, not subordinate to the services, responsible to the whole of government, and including in its brief, domestic research and devel-opment. This would all have been fne

Whatever you think of the outcome of South Korea’s F-X Phase

3 fghter selection—now leaning toward the F-35 Joint Strike

Fighter—you cannot deny that it is a mess. The government frst

created a new agency to manage its defense procurements, set

clear selection criteria for 60 new fghters and told the Defense Ac-

quisition Program Administration to git ‘er done. DAPA picked the

F-15SE, a decision that the government speedily set aside.

A Wimp-Out With StyleSouth Korea fails acquisition test

had the government not responded to DAPA’s frst controversial decision by folding like a cheap suit.

Overt pressure on the government came from 15 former air staf chiefs, who signed an emotional screed that not too subtly evoked a possible threat from F-35-armed Japan. There are a few problems with this sort of appeal.

Former generals have no more ac-cess to classifed F-35 or threat data than the rest of us (or at least they should not). The Japanese threat might play to the man in the Seoul ka-raoke bar, but one does not need tinfoil headgear to suspect that. In the event of such a confict, both sides’ F-35s would succumb to software maladies and stop working rather quickly. And while the generals may all be motivat-ed by pure patriotism, we know that if paying retired ofcers to infuence decisions were illegal, the U.S. defense industry would have to move its busi-ness development activities to federal correctional facilities.

There may not have been any U.S. government pressure involved. And Barney might be a real dinosaur. Ko-rea’s 60 near-term orders (the aircraft are needed to replace aging F-4s, see photo) are important for the F-35. As recent briefngs have shown, the pro-

gram needs 300 non-U.S. orders in the next 4-5 years to prime the production line and support an orderly ramp-up.

Failure to secure those orders may not kill the program, but will make it harder to gain the sunlit uplands of building 150-plus per year and un-F-22-like costs. The Netherlands cutting its buy to 37 from 85, and the U.K. punt-ing two-thirds of its nominally planned oftake into the long grass of the later 2020s, are not promising signs that the program’s founding partners are good for those early orders.

It would be understandable if Korea underestimated the importance of an F-35 order to Washington and assumed that an F-15 buy would be of equal validity. When F-X3 was in its forma-tive years in 2009, the Pentagon’s high sherifs believed the F-35 program was blasting ahead toward initial opera-tional capability this year. The Asian market was a sideshow, another dish to be gobbled up in due course.

Korea is in no position to ignore U.S. government warnings about the two nations’ strategic relationship. The next year or so will see how and whether Korea manages to reach a decision that meets the needs of its armed forces, its treasury and its major ally, while restoring interna-tional confdence in the integrity of its procurement process.

Korea’s about-face is a tactical win for the F-35. However, the aircraft has yet to win an open, rules-based competition where all sides were ex-pected to bid a fxed price. Most of its committed buyers, including the U.S. services, signed on when the aircraft was promised to be much earlier and cheaper than it is today. And given the repeated claims of advocates that the price of the F-35A is headed down into F-16 country, the fact that it was beaten on price by not only the massive twin-engine F-15 Eagle but also the Eurofghter Typhoon—from the people who make Aston Martins, Porsches and Lamborghinis—has to raise some eyebrows.

We’ll see what happens in the next open, rules-based, fxed-price, profes-sionally executed competition. What? Hey, I’m not saying defnitively that Barney can’t be some subspecies of theropoda. c


So

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Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey

commentary

Business & Commercial

Aviation Editor-in-Chief William Garvey blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

“Well, they haven’t actually deliv-ered any yet,” I explained.

“None?!” He was surprised, almost fabbergasted.

“Not one,” I confrmed. “The Hon-daJet has yet to be certifed, but that, and the start of deliveries seem likely next year.”

My cousin’s reaction was under-standable. After all, Honda has been working on its light jet out at Greens-boro’s Piedmont Triad International Airport (GSO) for the better part of a decade. In fact, research on the aircraft began in 1986.

The project’s original 32,000-sq.-ft. hangar/ofce at GSO has given way to a sprawling, ultra-modern, whistle-clean complex that now includes a production, paint and training facility; R&D, test and delivery center; and an administrative building. And, later this week, area notables will be on hand for the grand opening of yet another Honda Aircraft building—a customer service, aircraft maintenance and repair center.

In all, Honda Aircraft now occu-pies some 133 acres of land on GSO’s southeast side, including 600,000 sq. ft. under roof. The company puts total construction investment at more than $120 million. Those buildings are now full of tooling, computers and test equipment. The hangars house fve

During a recent visit with a cousin in Greensboro, N.C., the

subject of Honda Aircraft came up. He mentioned how

important the planemaker was to the community as a source

of jobs, tax revenue and pride. Their jets are apparently very

popular, he said. To which I responded, “quite possibly.”

A comment he found curious.

The Long ViewHas the moment passed, or is it yet to come?

conforming fight-test aircraft. Cus-tomer aircraft production is underway, and the parking lot is so jammed with the cars of its 800 full-time employees, the company is pouring more mac-adam.

One can only speculate on the total investment to date in this venture—Honda’s frst commercial aircraft project—but there’s no question that it’s big. A breathtaking number.

The long gestation of the fve-pas-senger jet, distinctive for its engines (the GE Honda HF120, whose long-delayed certifcation is expected this quarter) mounted on pylons atop the wings, has many business aviation vet-erans questioning the viability of the entire enterprise. The light-jet market has swelled and tanked during the HondaJet’s development period. De-spite the grim outlook, a constant food of orders for the $4.5 million jet would be required to cover the investment.

But then that’s using traditional measures. Honda Motor Co., the jet-maker’s parent, seems to be employing a diferent formula.

Michimasa Fujino, the engineer who has led the project from the outset and serves as Honda Aircraft president/CEO, has stated that the GSO complex was designed to accommodate more than one aircraft model. And will.

Another company executive ex-

plains that Honda plans for the long term—it looks out 50 years, rather than 90 days. By then, he says with confdence, Honda Aircraft will be a se-rious producer of technically advanced fying hardware, one with the stature so associated with the name.

And with Honda Motor Co. revenues expected to top $110 billion, again, this year, it can aford to wait for its baby bird to get fully fedged. Time will tell if it can soar. c

enticing youth

Meanwhile, at Timco Aviation Servic-es, located next door to Honda, a group of 20 new graduates from Guilford Technical Community College just completed initial training at the heavy jet MRO outft.

Timco regularly hires from the nearby tech college. And with good reason. Pete Laszca, general manager for the MRO operations, cites the high demand for qualifed aircraft techs. That situation is getting a lot of indus-try attention.

The Westchester Aviation Associa-tion recently held another career day at Westchester County (N.Y.) Airport for local high school students with the

clear purpose of raising their interest in things aviation. Such events and industry/tech school partnerships are becoming more the norm as indus-try veterans retire and competition grows for young people with technical inclinations.

Pete Bunce, president of the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, applauds eforts to connect with the next generation. “That’s our seed corn, our lifeblood for the future. We’ve got a great story to tell.” c

WAA


HondA AircrAft PHotos

Take off into tomorrow with MRJ

commentary

Analysts fnd it is incapable of signifcantly beating the seat costs of even current-production narrowbodies on short ranges.

So airlines still have the problem they have faced since Airbus and Boe-ing stopped building the A310 and 757 10-15 years ago: No Western aircraft is designed to transport more than 200 passengers over only moderate ranges. Airlines who want a bigger cabin have to carry the weight needed for far more range. Since the 767-300ER is no longer attracting orders as a pas-senger aircraft, and the A330-200 is designed for intercontinental routes, the next realistic step up from the 737-9 and A321neo is the A330-300, which is almost three times as heavy.

However, Airbus may fnd buyers for the A330-300 by “papering it down”—a term for certifying a type with a lower weight without changing its design. In Asia, especially, congestion and limited trafc rights may make it attractive, possibly even to budget airlines.

Papering down will cut the cost of

Congestion, not narrowbody-beating operating economics, are

likely to support sales of the A330-300 with its new option

of low-weight certifcation. Although Airbus is now ofering the

aircraft with paperwork for a gross weight as low as 199 metric

tons (439,000 lb.) for a range of 4,900 km (2,650 nm), the A330-

300 will still have the unchanged wing, engines and structure of

an airliner capable of operating at 242 tons and fying 10,800 km.

Not Tailor-MadeEven with lightweight A330-300 certifcation,

airlines lack a big aircraft for moderate ranges

a 2,000-nm A330-300 trip by about 2%, depending on applicable air-port charges, says a former airlines analyst who has studied exactly that possibility. Airbus says reducing the A330-300’s weight and ftting in more passengers will reduce costs per seat by 15%, but the bulk of the saving must be coming from the extra seats, some ftted in place of galley space.

The A330-300 certifed at low weight should ofer about the same costs per seat as an A321 with current-production engines on moderate stage lengths. A detailed study by another analyst found that even with two-class medium-haul seating, the A330-300’s cash operating cost per seat (that is, excluding acquisi-tion expenses) was a little higher than the A321’s over a 2,000-nm route. The savings in maintenance and airport charges of a papered-down A330-300 probably close that gap; but the new technology of the 737-9 and A321neo blows it wide open again. Although Airbus says the low-weight ofering returns the A330-300 to its roots as a

medium-range aircraft, the type is still not tailored for the routes that narrow-bodies commonly fy.

Airlines therefore have little reason to choose a low-weight A330-300 instead of higher narrowbody frequencies. But sometimes higher frequency is not avail-able, especially in Asia, where A330-300s are often used on short routes that cannot accept more fights, notably Beijing-Shanghai and Shanghai-Tokyo.

All over the world, budget airlines are evolving diferently according to local conditions, notes Hong Kong aviation consultant David Li. “More specifc to Asia is a higher population density and restrictive frequencies, whether that is dictated from domes-tic policy or bilateral agreements,” he says. “So if you’re a low-cost carrier and can only fy once a day between two cities with populations of 7 million or more, then it is likely you would be looking for a bigger airplane.”

An obstacle for a budget airline us-ing A330-300s will be fnding enough suitable routes to justify an economi-cally large feet of them—say, 20 or more. U.S. consultant George Hamlin believes carriers will still be inclined to use A330-300s on short routes only when doing so fts a schedule that em-ploys them mainly on longer fights. If so, then Airbus may not fnd many tak-ers for the A330-300 at a low-weight certifcation. However, continued strong demand for it with full-weight paperwork could be a possibility.

Employing A330-300s strictly on short routes would be difcult for even Asia’s biggest budget carriers, such as the Air Asia group. One of its member companies, AirAsia X, does fy -300s, but its mission is mainly to address destinations that A320s cannot reach from its Kuala Lumpur base. The A330s of Qantas group budget carrier Jetstar are similarly employed, fying from Australia but rarely within it.

The awkwardness of integrating so large an aircraft with narrowbody feets again suggests that a large-capacity, moderate-range aircraft is needed. The A310 and 757 were dropped instead of reengined. With today’s general upward drift in demanded aircraft size, and high fuel prices that punish excess weight, they may have been popular if given a second chance. c

Airline Intel


By Bradley Perrett

Asia-Pacifc Bureau Chief Bradley Perrett blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings

[email protected]

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In Orbit

commentary

By Frank Morring, Jr.

Senior Editor Frank Morring, Jr., blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/onspace

[email protected]

According to fgures com-piled by The Washington Post, 97% of NASA civil servants were furloughed at the beginning of the new fscal year because Congress hadn’t appropri-ated any more money. There has been plenty of back-and-forth from all available media outlets on what lies behind the shutdown impasse. Read it and weep. This column is about the priorities that went into deciding which workers are locked out, and which ones are “exempt.”

NASA, it turns out, is at the top of the list. There was plenty of pain to go around—the Housing and Urban Development Agency ran a close second to the space agency in its furlough percentage (96%), followed by the Education Department (94%) and the Environmental Protection Agency (also 94%). At the other end of the scale were the Defense (18%), Justice (16%), Homeland Security (14%) and Veterans Affairs (4%) departments.

Certainly it is easy to argue high priority for keeping veterans’ ben-efts moving. And the Pentagon later was allowed to recall its furloughed workers. But it starts getting tricky when we learn that the Federal Emer-gency Management Agency—a part

It wasn’t exactly a happy birthday. After 55 years of pushing

humankind to places we have never been before—including lit-

erally out of the Solar System—NASA’s staf got to celebrate the

Oct. 1 anniversary of their agency’s founding on furlough, sent

home without pay while the nation’s leaders postured for prime

time. Even more upsetting was just how many of them there

were, compared to their colleagues at other agencies.

Misplaced PrioritiesShutdown leaves NASA staf out in the cold

of Homeland Security—had to recall furloughed workers to prepare for a hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast. Who were the 86% not furloughed at Homeland Security? And Justice? Even counting the FBI as essential workers, it just doesn’t seem to add up, unless perhaps it takes a lot more government lawyers than we realize to keep the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court busy rubber-stamping wiretap warrants. That brings us back to NASA.

“How many federal agencies—for that matter, how many employers—have to tell their employees, ‘I’m sending you home without pay for an indefnite period of time and you are strictly prohibited from doing any work for the company/organiza-tion on your own time and without compensation?’” asks Les Johnson, the furloughed deputy manager of the Advanced Concepts Ofce at Marshall Space Flight Center.

A blog post Johnson wrote after the shutdown has attracted a lot of atten-

tion. In it, he complains that the space agency told the workers it was sending home, “[d]uring the furlough . . . you will not be permitted to serve NASA as an unpaid volunteer.”

“If it weren’t so explicitly stated, I would be one who would continue to work on my NASA projects at home, on my own time and without compen-sation,” Johnson says. “I am sure I wouldn’t be alone.”

He’s right about that. Furloughed or not, the team behind the Mars Atmo-sphere and Volatile Evolution (Maven) mission received an emergency exemption after the shutdown halted preparations for its Nov. 18 launch. The spacecraft is in fnal testing at Kennedy Space Center (see photo), where the gates were closed.

Maven is an orbiter designed to study what happened to the water that once ran on the surface of Mars (AW&ST Aug. 26, p. 40). It needs to go by mid-December to squeak through the planetary launch window, a fact that somehow escaped ofcial notice in the rush to shut things down. Also apparently escaping notice in the priority-setting was the best value of federal work.

Projects like Maven have been going on for decades at NASA. Sometimes, they need a lot of time and money to bear fruit, but the end result usually advances human knowledge and earns the U.S. some “soft power” in the ad-miration of other nations for what has been achieved. Ed Stone, the project manager on Voyager 1, flled a large auditorium at the International Astro-nautical Congress in Beijing last month with his lecture on evidence that the spacecraft has made it into interstellar space (AW&ST Sept. 16, p. 12).

It is difcult to understand why workers like Stone—who continues working even though he’s well past retirement age—rank below some of the feds exempted from the furlough, particularly if you’ve ever been caught in the 4:30 p.m. scrum at the Pentagon subway stop. But it isn’t hard to under-stand what motivates them.

“We believe we’re making a difer-ence in the world and we love doing it,” writes Johnson of his agency’s eforts at “making the Earth a better place to live for all who inhabit it.” c

Ben Cooper/AW&ST


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NO CHALLENGE TOO BIG. NO PROBLEM TOO COMPLEX.

THIS IS WHAT INSPIRES US.

Washington Outlook

While the uncertainty of two years of budget cuts and stop-

gap spending bills may still not seem tangible to the public,

“sequestration” is creating “chaos” for defense contractors. So says Dennis

Muilenburg, president/CEO of Boeing Defense, Space and Security. “It’s a destructive force, and we really need an alternative solution to the nation’s budget situation before it causes irreparable damage,” he tells Aviation Week. The government may be crafting three diferent budget plans as a hedge against the uncertainty, but Boeing is planning for a worst-case full implementation of sequestration: $500 billion in budget reductions over 10 years, including a $52 billion cut to the fscal 2014 budget. The company has cropped its defense workforce by 20% in the last three years, and culled its executive ranks by 30%. Muilenburg says Boeing will continue to invest in research in areas the government says will remain a priority, including the KC-46A tanker and a long-range strike platform. c

Spaceplane QueStionSAmong advanced developments hin-dered by the ongoing budget saga on Capitol Hill is the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s proposed XS-1 experimental spaceplane. Darpa is polling industry for interest in develop-ing a reusable hypersonic vehicle with expendable upper stages that can put

as much as 5,000 lb. in space up to 10 times over 10 days. But Boeing, which has a lot of relevant technology in its X-37 spaceplane, isn’t ready to commit. There is some uncertainty about what is and isn’t going to be funded, Muilen-burg says. “It’s very clear that the X-37 demonstrations that have occurred and are occurring are being very successful, and we will leverage that technology. That’s a highly valuable investment, and it has broad applicability. If Darpa proceeds, we’ll be able to inject that technology.” c

Define DiSaSterHobbled by the government’s partial shutdown, the National Transporta-tion Safety Board is standing down, except for the most pressing cases. “The agency can engage in those activities necessary to address im-

minent threats to safety of human life or for the protection of property,” the board said Oct. 10. Though it is clear investigators would be recalled for a major transportation disaster, how the NTSB is defning other “immi-nent threats” is murkier. The board is considering three recent events: A twin-engine Cessna that hit a radio tower in Paulden, Ariz., killing four; a single-engine Piper operated by Star Marianas Air with seven onboard that disappeared near Saipan in the Western Pacifc; and a Washington subway system mishap in which one track worker was killed. The win-ner, as it were, was the single-engine Piper. “After careful consideration it was determined that this accident did meet the criteria for excepting an employee from furlough,” the NTSB stated. Requests for comment were not answered; the public afairs staf remained on furlough. c

Multifront engageMentOne way to try to escape cataclysmic budget uncertainty is to cover all the bases. Consider EADS’s Lakota Light Utility Helicopter, one of the programs that fared poorly in President Barack Obama’s long-term budget plans. The Army asked for just 10 this year and no more after that. But members of Congress appear to be persuaded by EADS’s pitch of a low-cost, robust platform that delivers on time and is entrenched in the U.S. industrial base. The House’s spending committee added funding to procure 31 Lakotas, and its Senate counterpart funded 20. Plus, Congress might continue the year on stop-gap spending at last year’s levels, which funded 34 Lako-tas. But even if lawmakers pass a new budget, they are likely to settle on a fgure somewhere between 20-31. On top of that, National Guard ofcials in 21 states are weighing in to support the purchases. c

Slow-Moving Disaster Boeing prepares for full brunt of sequestration

coMMentary

aviationWeek.com/awst� AviAtion�Week�&�SpAce�technology/october�14/21,�2013 31

ReuteRs/Landov FiLe Photo

By Jen DiMascio

Congressional EditorJen DiMascio blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

‘It’s a

destructive

force.’—DENNIS

MUILENBURG

President of Boeing

Defense, Space and

Security

November 13-14, 2013 Phoenix, AZ

Strategic Priorities in a Sequestration Era. Learn which programs are being af ected and where

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The balance between Boeing and Airbus in one of the world’s

most important air transport markets is shifting with Japan

Airlines’ (JAL) order for the A350, and the consequences will

likely be transformational.

The agreement, including 31 frm or-ders, is so signifcant because roughly 90% of the country’s market belongs to Boeing. Not only are other Japa-nese carriers, and All Nippon Airways (ANA), in particular, now more likely to order Airbus aircraft, the rationale for the close industrial tries between Boe-ing and the Japanese aerospace sector could be compromised. After all, the A350 deal means JAL will order no Boeing 777Xs in the foreseeable future.

Airbus’s breakthrough in Japan follows a similar success in the U.S., where the aircraft maker managed to place more than 200 narrowbody jets with American Airlines in 2011. Other than a feet of Airbus A300s, American had been exclusively tied to Boeing and earlier to McDonnell Douglas.

Teal Group analyst Richard Abou-lafa says the Airbus win in Japan is a sign that it has upped its game. “The bad old days of manage-ment [and] impos-sibly dumb program launches are over,” he says. “Instead, Airbus is a far more focused company with solid manage-ment, and it seems to be executing well” on the A350.

But the deal is telling about Boeing, as well. Since at least 2011, key customers have pressed for the 777X launch, which now looks likely to occur at the Dubai Airshow in November. The 777X delay provided Airbus more time to market the A350—and timing was pivotal in the JAL cam-paign. Aboulafa believes the 777X has a bright future, nevertheless, though he concurs that Boeing’s slow progress on the new jet has cost it customers and

could prompt ANA to follow JAL’s lead. “For ANA, relying on Boeing for 777Xs means running the risk that JAL, their direct competitor, will get A350s as 777 replacements years before ANA does,” he says. “Therefore, an A350 order is likely.”

Bank of America Merrill Lynch ana-lyst Ronald J. Epstein calls JAL’s A350 order “a major upset” that “bodes poorly” for Boeing’s market share and widebody strategy. “Boeing manage-ment has focused recently on its plans to dominate the widebody market as the narrowbody market becomes more commod-itized,” Epstein writes in a note to clients. “But if JAL’s order is any indication, this may not be play-ing out as planned.”

He points out that 20 of the 35 cus-tomers ordering A350s also have 777s

in their fleet or have revealed plans to acquire the Boeing jet. “While the company clearly does not want to play a market-share game at the risk of margins, it needs to reevaluate its ‘go to market’ strategy when competing with Airbus,” Epstein says.

And Airbus may have one more card to play. “We might stretch [the A350], but we are not sure how big the market is,” John Leahy, chief operating ofcer

Wide OpeningJAL order for Airbus A350s breaks Boeing’s

hold on Japan and raises stakes for the 777X

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

for customers, said Oct. 7 at the International

Society of Transport Aircraft Trad-ers (Istat) Europe conference in Barce-lona, Spain. “We are studying it.” This was the frst time an Airbus ofcial has indicated this possibility.

As part of the revamp to make the 777-9X, Boeing is stretching the 777 further and making it larger than the A350-1000. Airbus has stated that it does not see a need to lengthen the A350 beyond the 1000, which seats 350 passengers in three classes, depending on confguration. But the gap between it and the next-larger model, the A380, is about 170 seats, according to stan-dard layouts. Meanwhile, the proposed 777-9X is now almost the same size as the 747-8, at around 400 seats—10-20% larger than the A350-1000.

Leahy argues that Boeing is stretch-ing the 777 not because there is a mar-ket for it, but to attain needed unit-cost improvements. He doubts there will be many buyers for an aircraft in the 400-seat category. But there was strong demand in the past when Boeing still ofered the 747-400 and the model was competitive in terms of fuel burn. If Air-bus is correct that larger aircraft can best meet growing air travel demand,

A350 Closing on 787

Airbus A350

Boeing 787

Year-to-date Orders

Total Orders

Year-to-date Orders

Total Orders

725

979

Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 frm-order totals through Sept. 30

do not include JAL’s purchase agreement for 31 A350s.

Sources: Airbus and Boeing

143

132

Jens Flottau Frankfurt


that will then apply not only to the A380-size category, but also large twin-aisles.

Airbus is busy with A350-900 certifcation and -1000 development for now, so no company insider expects a quick decision on stretching the A350 further, though it is clearly an option.

In the meantime, the A350 order from JAL could also reverberate through the aerospace supply chain. Ep-stein says it “bears watch-ing” whether the move by JAL will prompt Boeing to outsource fewer 777X com-ponents, such as the center wingbox, to Japanese suppliers. Mi-tsubishi, Kawasaki and Fuji are major suppliers on the 787 program. Airbus is considering increasing the Japanese workshare in the A350 program.

Boeing’s decades-long near-monop-oly in Japan, facilitated by the close po-litical ties and long-standing industrial relationship between the U.S. and Ja-pan, has made the country’s aerospace industry Boeing’s most important inter-national supply network.

In turn, the major Japanese air-

lines—initially, ANA, JAL and Japan Air System (JAS)—became the most faithful buyers of Boeing jets. JAS also operated 30 Airbus A300s, which JAL inherited in its takeover of JAS a de-cade ago, and ANA has been operating A320 family jets for years, although its long-haul feet is still exclusively Boeing. That may change soon.

Airbus has already cornered the new low-fare and smaller regional or domes-tic airlines in Japan such as Star Flyer, Jetstar Japan and AirAsia Japan (soon

to be renamed Vanilla), which have all-A320 feets. Skymark has ordered six A380s and will take 10 A330-300s on lease from 2014.

Although JAL and ANA were launch customers for the Boeing 787, they were hard hit by the aircraft’s grounding and subsequent reliability issues this year. Nonetheless, JAL was the hardest cam-paign for Airbus to win, if also poten-tially the most rewarding strategically.

The story behind the A350 order has subplots involving politics, business and personalities. JAL has for some time been losing its status as the de

facto national carrier of Japan. It was privatized long ago but had to be

rescued in a bankruptcy restruc-turing through a contentious multibillion-dollar government

intervention. JAL is in much better shape since emerging from bankrupt-cy almost two years ago, but it can no longer rely on political support. When new slots became available at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport last month, only a third went to JAL; the other two-thirds were allocated to ANA.

Success in Japan repeatedly eluded Leahy, Airbus’s legendary head of sales,

despite his victories in other corners of the world that have been instrumental in bringing the manufacturer roughly on par with Boeing in market share. Some say Leahy’s outgoing person-ality does not mesh with Japanese codes of behavior. CEO Fabrice Bregier, on the other hand, who lived in Ja-pan early in his career and speaks some Japanese, has made numerous trips to To-kyo since early 2012. Bregier made it a personal goal to build relationships with the major Japanese airlines and eventually win them over to Airbus.

Moreover, JAL’s strongly traditional culture changed under Chairman Ka-zuo Inamori, the founder of electron-ics giant Kyocera, during and after its bankruptcy. Early on, Inamori stated that it was not normal for an airline of JAL’s size to rely on just one supplier. The 787 problems have surely made it tougher for the airline to continue to stick exclusively with Boeing.

JAL operates a feet of 45 777s now, with 777-200s and -300s primarily used domestically, and -200ERs and

Japan Airlines placed its frst-ever Airbus order for a total of 31 A350s.

Airbus ConCept

Boeing and Airbus Fleets of Japanese Passenger Airlines

Boeing single-aisle Boeing twin-aisle AIRLINE Airbus single-aisle Airbus twin-aisle

ANA and Related Carriers

39 138 All Nippon Airways 17

9 4 Air Do

14 ANA Wings

Peach 10

AirAsia Japan 3

JAL and Related Carriers

16 104 Japan Airlines

34 JAL Express

14 Japan Transocean Air

Jetstar Japan 17

Others

32 Skymark Airlines

13 Solaseed Air

StarFlyer 11

Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network �eet database

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21, 2013


COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

Long-Haul Struggle

Airbus aimed to tally 25 new or-ders in 2013 for its largest air-craft, the A380. But after one

high-profle cancellation, Airbus now has three fewer orders than at the be-ginning of the year. Could this be the beginning of a trend?

The A380 has been selling slowly for some time, which Airbus has attributed to the sluggish world economy. While that is certainly a factor, Lufthansa’s decision to reduce its frm orders to 14 from 17 raises more questions.

The airline’s move is part of its long-term planning process, which aims for 3% annual growth. The carrier also placed orders for 25 Airbus A350-900s and 34 Boeing 777-9Xs. Lufthansa’s se-nior vice president for corporate feets, Nico Buchholz, says the original order for the A380 was placed more than 10 years ago and has just now been adapted. The airline concludes that it needs fewer aircraft in the very large segment than originally envisaged.

Lufthansa is still one of the largest operators in the segment, with orders

for 14 A380s and 747-8s and a current in-service fleet of 23 747-400s, which will be replaced over time. In addition, Buchholz points out that there will al-ways be routes such as Frankfurt-Jo-hannesburg that are too big to be fown with smaller jets.

However, the major shift toward larger jets long predicted by Airbus has not happened yet. And the manu-facturer is making the move tougher for airlines by ofering highly efcient twin jets. Chief operating officer for customers, John Leahy, says airlines would have to install 550-560 seats in an A380 for the aircraft to match the unit costs of the A350-1000 that will enter the market in 2017. In other words, essentially all current opera-tors are fying the aircraft in confgu-rations that are much less attractive in terms of unit costs.

Leahy characterizes the Lufthansa decision as a “favour du jour.” “Let’s see what the market is like in one or two years,” he says. While Airbus is talking to several airlines about frm-

ing up positions for the A380 before year-end, it has not received a single frm order for the type this year, ac-cording to Leahy.

Doric Asset Finance signed up for 20 A380s at the Paris air show in June, and although that has not been turned into an actual order, Leahy says there is a chance the deal can be completed in 2013. He does not see Airbus competing

for A380 placements with Doric, which is the only lessor with a commitment for the aircraft.

Aside from the Lufthansa reduction, several more of the 259 frm orders for the A380 are looking shaky. Leahy says “it is publicly known” that Virgin Atlan-tic’s order for six A380s includes can-cellation rights, and the airline has in-dicated many times that it is unlikely to take the aircraft. He also indicates that Hong Kong Airlines, with 10 A380s on order, might “convert” its commitment to “other products.” Kingfsher Airlines is still listed with fve orders, although it stopped fying in 2012.

And there are serious doubts that Air Austral will take its two A380s that were intended to fy between Paris and the French overseas departments in a very high-density confguration. Air France has delayed some of its A380 deliveries as it continues its restructur-ing program and cuts back on capital expenditures.

Airbus still has “a couple of slots” open for the A380 in 2015, but those can only be taken by airlines that already operate the type. The Lufthansa cancel-lation afects production slots beyond 2015, thus it does not worsen Airbus’s short-term manufacturing problem. But if the aircraft maker does not fnd airlines to take those slots soon, it will have to cut back on production. c

-300ERs on international routes. JAL had previously said it might split the replacement order for its interna-tional and domestic 777 feets, but it has opted to cover both with A350s. The mix of variants for international and domestic routes remains to be de-cided. JAL has said it is not interested in larger widebodies, such as the A380 or 747-8.

ANA is close to selecting new wide-

body aircraft for the eventual replace-ment of its 777s, as well. It operates 55 777s, including -200s, -200ERs, -300s and -300ERs. The 25 777s used on international routes will be replaced frst, an ANA spokesman says. The air-line is “collecting information” on the 777X and the A350, which it regards as the aircraft best-suited to replace the 777s, an ANA ofcial says, adding that a decision could be made “soon.”

ANA plans to start replacing its 777s around 2020.

While persuading JAL to buy Air-bus aircraft was politically challenging, things will likely come down at ANA to the usual factors driving aircraft purchase decisions: product quality, timing and price. c

With Adrian Schofield and Joseph C. Anselmo.

Lufthansa has reduced its A380

order to 14 from 17 aircraft.

Airbus A380 sales target

looks increasingly remote

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Supersonic TrailSS2 tests on track for high-speed feather,

higher altitudes and supersonic reentry

Unlike conventional rockets, winged vehicles face the added challenge of encountering a po-

tentially lethal form of unsteady oscil-lation, or futter, as they pass through the atmosphere on the way to and from the airless voids of suborbital space.

However, following two supersonic fights through the heart of the poten-tial futter zone, Scaled Composites’ test pilots, evaluating Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo (SS2), report the vehi-cle is rugged and stable, without any of the transonic issues that could have bedeviled the design. While the sub-sonic build-up test fights unearthed some unexpected results before the start of powered fights in April, aero-dynamic modifications have proved efective during the vehicle’s early su-personic fights under rocket power.

The fndings have built confdence in achieving the next major milestone for the program, a supersonic reentry us-ing SS2’s unique tail-plane feathering braking system. The test, if successful, will open the way for longer-duration rocket burns, which will culminate with a maximum apogee demonstra-

tion flight to around 360,000 ft. On completion of this milestone, Scaled Composites will turn the vehicle over to Virgin Galactic, which plans to begin commercial suborbital services from the Spaceport America site, located in the Jornada del Muerto desert basin in New Mexico, in 2014. The two-crew SS2 is designed to carry six passen-gers or a science payload.

Describing the most recent powered fights at the Society of Experimental Test Pilots Symposium in Anaheim, Ca-lif., Scaled Composites test pilots Mark Stucky, Michael Alsbury and Clint Nich-ols say the focus is now on expanding the high-speed, high-altitude envelope following the second powered flight on Sept. 5. That test, which reached Mach 1.43 and an apogee of 69,000 ft., included the frst use of the feathering reentry system on a powered fight, and saw the vehicle’s Sierra Nevada Corp.’s second solid rocket motor, RM2, fred for 20 sec.—4 sec. more than the frst powered fight on April 29.

The second flight “met all objec-tives” and built on the frst powered fight, which “took us into the middle

of the fight regime, where futter was predicted,” says Stucky. However, no futter was encountered and “the only real surprise” was an uncommanded pitch-up of around 10 deg. during ac-celeration. Subsequent analysis indi-cated that the development of a “pitch bubble” was responsible for the event. This was solved by placing four vor-tex generators on the upper surface of the wing, close to the leading-edge root area. The small devices were built and installed in short order, thanks to the Mojave, Calif.-based company’s 3-D printer.

Scaled also gave new details about the tail-stall event on the 16th glide

flight in September 2011. That epi-sode led to a redesign of the inboard strakes and contributed to a nine-month hiatus in test fights. The test card called for releasing SS2 from the White KnightTwo carrier aircraft, and immediately entering a rapid descent, to check for flutter in the transonic region. The crew planned to rap the stick to check for damping as the nose passed 30 deg. down, and they expect-ed the nose to reach -25 deg. before tracking upward and capturing Mach 0.8 and an initial dive angle of 18 deg.

Instead, Stucky expounds, “Upon release, the downward pitch rate was quick. And unlike the previous flight and nominal simulation, it wasn’t slow-ing. I began trimming aft and applied maximum upward elevon, without any noticeable efect.” The spacecraft then became inverted and, despite the crew dumping water ballast, it immediately entered a left spin, he says. “I instinc-tively applied full opposite stick and rud-der without any noticeable efect. After four turns, we spontaneously decided to activate the feathering device. It was de-signed for carefree reentry from space, not as a spin recovery system, but it functions well in that role.” SS2 quickly rolled upright and recovered, he adds.

Post-fight analysis indicated the tail had stalled negatively, was unable to counter the downward-pitch rate and that the steep dive at that particular speed and altitude was outside the SS2 design envelope. The enlarged strake efectively “doubles the negative alpha [angle-of-attack] range,” says Stucky. c

SPACE

Following release from the carrier aircraft, envelope-expansion fights will include feathering at supersonic speed.

Mobile AerospAce reconnAissAnce systeM, MArscientific.coM

AviationWeek.com/awst� AviAtion�Week�&�SpAce�technology/october�14/21,�2013 37

Amy Svitak Paris and Amy Butler Washington

Fingers CrossedExpectations are high for new Falcon 9 to prove

military, commercial-satellite launch capabilities

The U.S. Air Force needs it. So do commercial satellite operators and manufacturers developing

new platforms with low-cost launch ser-vices in mind. But after the debut last month of the upgraded SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, the promise of an afordable new entrant to the commercial launch market is still just a promise.

Following liftof Sept. 29 from a new launch pad at Vandenberg AFB, Calif., the Falcon 9 v1.1 sent a small Canadian science satellite and three experimental payloads to polar low Earth orbit. The mission demonstrated the rocket’s nine new frst-stage Merlin 1D engines in a new “Octaweb” confguration, plus sig-nifcantly longer fuel tanks and a larger payload fairing. It also afrmed that SpaceX is equipped to meet the terms of a $1.6 billion con-tract with NASA to launch 20 metric tons of cargo to the In-ternational Space Station (ISS) aboard its Dragon cargo vessel by the end of 2015.

However, after delivering its payloads to low Earth orbit, the Falcon 9 upper stage at-tempted—and then aborted—a planned reignition of its new Merlin 1D vacuum engine, deal-ing a blow to non-NASA cus-tomers counting on SpaceX to loft payloads to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), the desti-nation of most telecommunica-tions satellites.

Since 2010, when the start-up space company founded by Internet tycoon Elon Musk debuted the baseline Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral AFS, com-mercial satellite operators have been eager for SpaceX’s suc-cess, hoping it will drive down prices among established pro-viders, notably Europe’s Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket, managed by Arianespace and International Launch Services of Reston, Va., which markets commercial mis-sions of Russia’s Proton.

At an advertised $56.5 mil-

lion per launch, almost $14 million less than a Chinese Long March, Falcon 9 has also garnered support from the U.S. Air Force, which sees it as a potential alternative to United Launch Alliance (ULA), the Boeing-Lockheed Martin duopoly that charges a small fortune to loft military payloads atop Delta 4 and Atlas 5 rockets.

To date, SpaceX has achieved laud-able success with three launches of its standard Falcon 9 to the ISS. However, “taking Dragon 220 miles above Earth is quite different than the missions we conduct,” Scott Correll, Air Force program executive ofcer for launch, told Aviation Week in April. “We want to make sure the upper stage can per-

form,” because most national security satellites are sent to geosynchronous or medium Earth orbits.

After the Sept. 29 launch, Musk discounted the mission’s upper-stage demo as “optional,” dismissed the pos-sible cause of the abort as “nothing fundamental” and said SpaceX is still working on operating the Merlin 1D in the vacuum of space.

With more than $1 billion in commer-cial backlog and a dozen GTO missions to execute over the next two years, Musk’s comments sent launch insur-ers through the roof.

Yet the upper-stage anomaly did not stop SpaceX’s frst GTO customer, Luxembourg-based feet operator SES, from shipping its SES-8 communica-tions satellite to the Cape in prepara-tion for launch on the next Falcon 9, now scheduled for no earlier than November.

“Since SES is the next customer on the Falcon 9 manifest, SES’s engi-neering team is working closely with SpaceX to understand why SpaceX’s new-version Falcon 9 didn’t perform

as planned during its Sept. 29 flight, which was to demon-strate reignition of its upper stage,” SES spokesman Yves Feltes said Oct. 8.

One of dozens of commer-cial spacecraft in the SES feet, SES-8 is a small and arguably unremarkable satellite. Built by Orbital Sciences Corp., the 3,200-kg (7,055-lb.) spacecraft features 33 Ku-band transpon-ders and will bolster coverage for rapidly growing markets in the Asia-Pacifc region.

But as the Falcon 9’s first launch to GTO, SES-8 is a make-or-break mission for an ecosys-tem of fleet operators, space agencies, manufacturers and launch service providers that have spent years retooling busi-ness models and tailoring future planning based on Falcon 9.

Jim Simpson, vice president of business development at Boeing Commercial Satellite Services, says he is eager to see SpaceX launch SES-8, the suc-cess or failure of which will have an impact on Boeing’s pioneer-ing new all-electric spacecraft, the 702-SP. Roughly half the weight of a chemically propelled spacecraft, these satellites can be launched in pairs atop most

ReuteRs/Gene Blevins/landov File Photo

The Falcon 9 v1.1, upgraded from the baseline rocket with new engines, stretched fuel tanks and a larger payload fairing, frst launched on Sept. 29.

38��AviAtion�Week�&�SpAce�technology/october�14/21,�2013� AviationWeek.com/awst

Tony Osborne London

Edging CloserTroubled Watchkeeper nears fnal hurdles

It may be three years behind sched-ule, but the U.K.’s long-running WK450 Watchkeeper unmanned

air system (UAS) could now be on the cusp of entering service.

The system built by Thales U.K. has been held back by dramatic changes in the way the U.K. Defense Ministry brings new aircraft into service. But despite this, there is optimism that the certifcation process used by the U.K.’s Military Aviation Authority (MAA) could ultimately allow wider uses for the aircraft once it is operational with the British Army.

Watchkeeper was initially scheduled to enter service in September 2010. The timing of its introduction to test-ing coincided with the backlash from the 2006 Nimrod patrol aircraft crash in Afghanistan, when the resulting Haddon-Cave report’s recommenda-tions were fnally being implemented. The overhaul in the safety culture and oversight of military air safety culmi-nated in the formation of the MAA in April 2010.

The new regulations formed by the MAA have slowed several procure-ment programs, but the process has been particularly painful for Watch-keeper, as MAA personnel have little or no experience in certifying UAS. The Royal Air Force’s General Atom-ics MQ-9 Reaper and the Hermes 450 system, code-named Lydian, being used by the British Army in Afghani-stan as a gap-fller, skirted the process by being procured through the urgent

operational requirements system. But the British Army wants to fy Watch-keeper in U.K. airspace to support training, so it has essentially become the pilot program for certifcation of military UAS in the U.K.

Thales says it received from the MAA a Statement of Type Design As-surance (STDA), which confrms that the system has reached “an acceptable level for design safety and integrity” to meet the current stage of its develop-ment. The system cannot be used by the British Army, however, until it is given a Release to Service (RTS) cer-tifcation, which Thales hopes will be achieved by year-end.

The STDA for Watchkeeper is the result of a tailored Military Air Sys-tems Certifcation Process (MACP), rather than a military type certifcate, because the system was already in certifcation testing when the MACP process was ofcially introduced on April 1, 2012. No UAS has yet gone through the full MACP.

Nonetheless, Thales U.K. says the certifcation represents a “major step forward” for the acceptance of UAS in the airspace environment and that it “underpins military fying globally in appropriate airspace.”

The Watchkeeper test feet has fown more than 1,000 hr. over 600 fights. All fight testing is being carried out at the UAS test range in Aberporth, Wales. Once the MAA has certifed the aircraft and signed of its RTS, Watch-keeper may begin fights over the Salis-bury Plain Training Area in southern

UNMANNED SYSTEMS

rockets in production today. But Simp-son says the 702-SP is designed to make the most of the Falcon 9’s lift capacity—and its advertised price.

“The launch of SES-8 validates the economies of electric propulsion,” Simpson said on the sidelines of an annual satellite industry conference in Paris last month, when the mission was still slated for October. “That’s a big milestone for Boeing.”

In the meantime, SpaceX is sharing data with the Air Force on three of its Falcon 9 v1.1 missions, aiming to certify the rocket to compete for launches of national security payloads. Last year, the Pentagon authorized the Air Force to negotiate a block buy of up to 50 Atlas and Delta cores from ULA, 14 of which are options that could be open to competition for missions beginning in 2015.

The Air Force says SpaceX must perform three successful launches of the Falcon 9 v1.1 with its new Merlin 1D engine—two of them consecutive—be-fore the service will consider it viable to fy “Class A” government payloads that conduct critical missions such as missile-warning and protected com-munications.

“The Air Force considers the Falcon 9 v1.1 to be a new launch vehicle. As part of the USAF Certifcation Agreement with SpaceX, this launch was a major milestone as one of three launches re-quired,” says Col. Kathleen Cook, Air Force Space Command spokeswoman. “The Air Force is completing the formal process of determining the certifcation of this fight as the frst of the three re-quired SpaceX launches,” which she says could take several months due to the U.S. government shutdown.

SpaceX spokeswoman Emily Shank-lin says because all mission require-ments were met during the Sept. 29 launch, the company believes the Air Force will count the fight toward cer-tifcation. “While the second-stage re-start was not a mission or certifcation requirement for the Sept. 29 mission, it will be for the second and third cer-tification missions,” Shanklin notes. The second certifcation fight will be SES-8, she adds, followed by the third, Bangkok-based Thaicom’s Thaicom 6.

In the meantime, she says, “SpaceX continues to work closely with the Air Force to review all the fight data, in-cluding our understanding to date of the restart anomaly and the adjust-ments necessary.” c

The U.K.’s Watchkeeper UAS is based on Elbit’s Hermes 450.

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The U.K. Royal Navy is widening its focus on the potential of shipborne unmanned aerial systems (UAS).

While much of its attention has been on the development of a carrier strike capability with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and two new aircraft carriers, commanders are eager to broaden the intelligence-gathering capability of the navy’s surface feet.

In June, the Defense Ministry signed a £30 million ($47 million) two-year deal for the contractor-owned and -operated Insitu Scan-Eagle UAS to provide intelligence-gathering for the anti-piracy mission in the Indian Ocean. This would give commanders a better sense of shipborne UAS capabilities in an operational setting.

But in July, the Royal Navy signed a £2.3 million contract with Agus-taWestland to carry out a naval UAS study program, known as the Rotary Wing Unmanned Air System (RWUAS) Capability Concept Dem-onstrator (CCD). The project aims to land an AgustaWestland-built op-tionally piloted helicopter on a Royal Navy ship sometime next year.

“The program has been devel-

oped to inform the Royal Navy of the options and the capabilities that are available, and what is the art of the possible,” says an industry official close to the program.

The RWUAS will use AgustaWest-land’s unmanned SW-4 Solo 1.8-ton light helicopter built by PZL-Swidnik. The rotorcraft maker will draw on sup-port from Thales, which has experience

England. It should be able to support Royal Artillery training there from the Qinetiq-operated Boscombe Down air-feld, where the UAV is likely to mix in airspace with military manned trafc.

Army pilots have been able to train on the system with Thales test pilots through a military fight-test permit.

The UAS will also be the focus of an upcoming trial in conjunction with the U.K. National Air Trafc Services, which has been funded by the Single European Skies (Sesar) air traffic

management program to conduct UAS flights in controlled airspace. Simulations in April 2014, with trials following in the summer, could pave the way for the system’s use in civil protection missions such as search and rescue.

Thales and the army have been keen to explore those civil missions to make wider use of Watchkeeper. Civil Avia-tion Authority UAS rules stipulate that platforms must have a sense-and-avoid system to operate in mixed airspace.

Watchkeeper’s costs have grown to £831 million ($1.3 billion) from the initial £700 million, and the program was on a list of projects considered potentially untenable or needing to be “rescoped.”

Thales officials say the work on Watchkeeper has “pipe-cleaned” the MAA’s process for introducing un-manned systems and established a path for others to follow, but it is un-clear if the system will fnd its way into operations in Afghanistan. c

Tony Osborne London

Embracing ChangeWith ScanEagle tapped for

anti-piracy, the U.K. examines

unmanned rotary-wing options

from the Watchkeeper UAS program. The trial will see the rotorcraft take

of from a shore site, land on a Royal Navy ship and then return, similar to tests carried out by the French navy using Boeing’s unmanned AH-6U Little Bird last October. The CCD trials will also explore sensors such a platform might use for ofensive sur-face warfare, mine countermeasures, hydrography and meteorology, as well as general situational awareness.

Results from the RWUAS project will inform the Royal Navy’s Tactical Maritime UAS, intended to field an unmanned system capability to en-ter service around 2020. Such a UAS would operate from Type 45 air de-fense ships and future Type 26 Global Combat Ships, working alongside the ship’s helicopter. c

AgustaWestland plans to use the PZL-Swidnik SW-4

for the RWUAS program.


aGustawestland


Amy Butler Washington

Flame OutPentagon withhold on Pratt’s F135 contracts

is indicative of stronger oversight

F-35 engine-maker Pratt & Whit-ney is the latest Pentagon con-tractor to attract the scrutiny

of contracts auditors, who seem to be using sharper teeth in demanding that companies follow the department’s ex-acting auditing standards.

The Defense Contract Management Agency found that Pratt fell short in adhering to auditing standards, so it is withholding 5% of the company’s bill-ings on key F-35 contracts until a fx has been implemented. DCMA imposed the penalty after an April audit of compli-ance with the Pentagon’s Earned Value Management System (EVMS) by the company, which is owned by United Technologies. EVMS is the system by which the Pentagon tracks cost, sched-ule and performance of programs at contractors’ facilities.

The manufacturer of the F135 en-gine—used on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter—was decertifed and found to have “inadequate compliance with four of 32” EVMS guidelines, according to Matthew Bates, a Pratt spokesman. DCMA’s withhold covers 5% of future billings against the company’s low-rate, initial-production Lots 5-8 for the F135 engine and the Navy’s Fuel Burn Re-duction (FBR) program, under which

the Navy is looking at ways to improve efciency in the F-35 engine.

DCMA notifed Pratt of the withhold Sept. 30. Five percent is the maximum amount the Pentagon can withhold from billings, according to the govern-ment’s accounting regulations, says Joe Dellavedova, spokesman for the F-35 Joint Program Ofce. The JPO “fully supports” the decision to impose a with-hold, he adds.

All new contracts since 2012 contain clauses that allow for such a sanction in the event of EVMS problems, giv-ing DCMA more clout in demanding compliance. And, the agency is likely to fnd other contractors with EVMS problems, so Pratt’s situation may sim-ply be the tip of the iceberg.

F-35 Program Executive Officer USAF Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan met with senior Pratt & Whitney ex-ecutives Oct. 4 to discuss corrections for the defciencies in the company’s EVMS compliance, Dellavedova says.

“Although we have room for im-provement, we have demonstrated our commitment to the success of the F135 engine program by taking on 100 percent of overrun risk on production engines in our last LRIP 5 [low rate initial production award], and did so

voluntarily, ahead of the government’s requirement,” Bates said in a state-ment for Aviation Week.

LRIP 5 is valued at $1.12 billion for 35 F135 engines, including three spares. Pratt has a handshake agreement with the F-35 Joint Program Ofce for LRIP 6, including 38 engines, but has not signed the deal; the price has not been released. To date, 115 F135 en-gines have been delivered.

Pratt considers its lot-by-lot engine pricing to be competitive and does not release per-unit cost data. But based on the value of LRIP 5, the average cost is $32 million, including spares. The cost between the diferent engines for the conventional A-model, the short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing B-model and the carrier-capable C-model vary significantly, however. This is largely due to the Rolls-Royce lift-fan on the B-model.

EVMS decertifcation is not an in-dictment of a company’s technology or its ability to deliver quality equipment. It does, however, indicate an inability for the Pentagon to certify the data on a company’s progress in executing programs. This means data could be fawed, which could leave a company or program susceptible to criticism—warranted or not—by outside parties.

“The EVM requirement is meant to protect taxpayers from over-billing and focuses on the business systems de-fense companies use to estimate costs for bids; purchase goods from subcon-tractors; manage government property and materials; and to track costs and schedule progress,” says Dellavedova.

Pratt is working on four areas to improve its EVMS compliance: updat-ing documentation to better align with process, improving how scheduling tools are managed and integrated, bet-ter cost estimating and forecasting, and improving planning for work packages. The company has submitted corrective action plans for each area to DCMA for approval. Once the corrective actions

DEFENSE

The Pentagon’s payment holdback impacts three production contracts, as well as a study contract for Pratt’s F135 engine.

Comment on Pratt & Whitney’s decertifcation and follow Pentagon con-

tracting developments on our Ares blog at: ow.ly/pe8y0

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AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21, 2013 41


Osprey Babel FishingNew communications for V-22 key for

Marine Corps’ future Air Ground Task Force

Most white-collar workers can-not fathom operating without routine emails or news up-

dates via a smartphone for even a few minutes, let alone an hour or more.

But, U.S. Marine Corps troops on aircraft en route to potentially danger-ous landing zones for missions have to do just that, and in dire situations. Es-sentially, they fy blind, equipped with a set of mission plans that does not in-clude live updates. And, they are doing this despite an unprecedented amount

of data collection by unmanned air-craft and infrared missile-warning and targeting-pod systems proliferat-ing around the battlespace.

Service ofcials intend to change that dynamic by felding a new communica-tions gateway onboard the MV-22 by early next year. It will allow the aircrew onboard the tiltrotor and troops fying in the back to have improved, real-time situational awareness for missions.

This is the latest nontraditional use of the tiltrotor troop and cargo hauler,

are approved, the company will have a target date for recertifcation. “We are committed to having the best earned-value management system possible, and to consistently and accurately track performance and execution to our con-tracts,” Bates says.

Pratt, however, is not the only manu-facturer to face EVMS challenges. Bell Helicopter and Lockheed Martin were the only two contractors to be decerti-fed in the last decade, before the stan-dard compliance language was added to contracts in August 2012.

Lockheed Martin, F-35 prime con-tractor, remains decertified for its EVMS compliance at the Fort Worth JSF fnal assembly plant since 2010; a similar 5% withhold was placed on the company’s contracts, owing to its prob-lems. DCMA first noted Lockheed’s deviance in 2007 and formally decerti-fed the company when the required im-provements failed to be implemented.

In late August, DCMA reduced the withhold on Lockheed Martin to 2%, because the company was “making signifcant progress on the approved corrective action plan,” says Kenneth Ross, a company spokesman.

However, getting recertified is a painstaking process, as demonstrated by the length of time Lockheed Martin has struggled with the issue.

Bell was decertified from 2006-09,

and recertification was the result of “years of misery,” a company execu-tive says. But, he reports, a smooth-er-running operation was the end result. c

360 of which are being purchased by the service. Already, the Marine Corps has begun trials to test the Bell/Boe-ing MV-22’s aerial refueling capability, allowing for the service to pass fuel to other attack and assault support air-craft, potentially without relying on land-based KC-130s.

The gateway project is an interim step, however. Ultimately, the Marine Corps wants to place a Software Re-programmable Payload (SRP) radio set on all V-22s, with an eye toward eventually outftting the entire aviation feet. The ultimate plan calls for these radios to support an airborne network designed to link aviators and troops—those on the ground or riding in the back of airborne platforms—to real-time information on the battlefeld.

In the meantime, the Corps is conducting the second major test of the interim gateway this month during a series of Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) trials at a Weapons and Tactics Instructor course at Marine Corps AS, Yuma, Ariz. The frst took place during a similar course in April, says Maj. Sam Clark, a pilot for VMX-22, an op-erational test and evaluation squadron operating the Osprey.

He participated in the trials; they were a frst-of-a-kind test for the V-22 and were used to demonstrate that the tiltrotor can function as a node on a larger network.

The V-22 is an ideal platform for felding both the interim and eventual SRP equipment because it is slated for wide use by Marine Expeditionary Units, small groups of personnel who operate onboard amphibious ships around the globe. Additionally, the air-craft is large enough for integration of various antennas needed for the many waveforms used by SRP.

The interim solution makes use of a hardware box originally developed to carry the Directed Infrared Counter-measures (Dircm) system, and outft-ted with a variety of radios capable of communicating in various waveforms to create the gateway.

This is not unlike the Battlefeld Air-borne Communications Node (BACN) system hastily felded by the U.S. Air Force on the Bombardier BD-700 and

Northrop Grumman Global Hawk Block 20 aircraft to support operations in Afghanistan.

“What the Marine Corps is look-ing for is a more cost-efective, cost-efficient and more expeditionary method of something like that,” says Maj. Shawn Hoewing, lead ofcer for the Corps on this initiative. BACN “takes up the entire aircraft. We have condensed it down to one of each type of radio and then [added] the gateway software that allows you to do the mes-sage translation.”

Hoewing says the service plans this month to test a variety of functions using the interim gateway solution, in-cluding remote control of an unmanned aircraft sensor. Separately, last spring, operators also demonstrated remote

control of an electronic warfare payload hosted in the gateway box; the control-ler was in California while the aircraft was fying in Arizona. During the April trials, situational awareness data pro-vided through the gateway was avail-able only to pilots in the Osprey’s cock-pit; this month, the tests will feature a tablet interface that can be passed to a troop commander in the back of the air-craft. This will provide data to enhance mission-planning en route.

The Marine Corps plans to feld six of these gateways to a single Marine Expeditionary Unit early next year, Hoewing notes.

In the meantime, felding of a more elegant SRP system is in the works. “The idea is to do this concurrently, so there is no gap in capability,” Hoewing says. With the gateway, the Marines hosted radios employing diferent wave-forms—such as Link 16, TTNT and voice—in a single box on the aircraft. SRP would take that a step further by removing the individual radios and replacing them with a software repro-grammable system. He acknowledges

SRP has a “sordid past,” having begun as an Ofce of Naval Research project to feld an electronic warfare (EW) sys-tem. As an EW program, SRP “didn’t give you enough bang for your buck.”

Earlier this year, the service refo-cused the program on serving as a communications node. “In the future, that is one box that hosts all of those waveforms,” Hoewing says. “A lot of people have software-defined radios. Generally, what they bring is the abil-ity to carry one waveform at a time. . . . Having a multimodule, multiwaveform system capable of simultaneous opera-tions—that is where it is key. When you include in there the gateway capability, now you are doing the translation for someone else when you arrive on the scene.”

With SRP, the Marines envision the V-22 and CH-53E (which is the second candidate platform) as nodes to pass information among fxed- and rotary-wing aircraft and troops on the ground.

This would allow a task force in the back of a V-22 to view a landing zone as imaged by the CH-53’s infrared Dircm sensors, as an example, Hoewing says. It provides troops with real-time imag-ery of a landing zone to allow for neces-sary replanning en route. This could also allow for an intelligence analyst to retask an unmanned aircraft or its sensor from a desk miles away from its fightpath.

The Marines plan to begin felding SRP to the V-22 fleet in 2016, after test and evaluation demonstrations in 2015, Hoewing says. Various spirals are envisioned, each incorporating more capability and various waveforms. The effort is expected to cost about $20 million for 30 months of development since the restructuring this year. SRP is slated for delivery as a federated system with its own display initially; MV-22s would have it integrated into the multifunction displays already on the aircraft during routine overhauls.

Ultimately, Hoewing says, the Ma-rines envision engaging industry to de-velop iPhone-like applications for such functions as remote-sensor tasking or radio-frequency identifcation tagging of soldiers and equipment. c


A communications gateway would allow troops to get updates on battlefeld conditions en route to a mission. This is lacking on tiltrotors.

USMC Sgt. Keonaona C. PaUlo

DEFENSE


David Eshel Tel Aviv

Aged but UpgradedIAI pitches Kfr as fourth-generation fghter

at one-third of the price

With advanced avionics and mission systems, the 1970s-era delta-winged fighter

called Kfr could rank in the same class as contemporary “fourth-generation” fghter jets, say ofcials from manufac-turer Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI).

The company can deliver up to 50 of the Mach 2+ Kfirs, configured to the newest Block 60 standard, us-ing airframes retired from Israeli air force service in the 1990s, IAI ofcials report. These aircraft were mothballed in the southern Negev desert and are in good condition for refurbishment.

Israel has offered these modern-ized fghters to Bulgaria, addressing Sofa’s planning to replace its MiG-21s and MiG-29s with Western-compatible fghter jets. Bulgaria is interested in buying 10 used fghter jets, optimizing

them to participate in NATO combat missions. A possible procurement would be nine used F-16 Block 15s from Portugal, at a total cost of $464 million; surplus Eurofghter Typhoon fghter jets from the Italian air force will cost even more. Kfir Block 60s will cost about one-third as much as the F-16s, IAI ofcials contend. Bulgaria was also evaluating a Swedish proposal to buy new Gripen fghters from Saab.

“The Kfir was designed to be a tough fghter jet, well-built and ‘young in spirit.’ The Kfirs we are selecting for refurbishment logged only few hundred fight hours, their structure is intact, without cracks or fatigue,” says Yosef Melamed, general manager of IAI’s Lahav Div. “When a customer picks these fighters, we activate an assembly line where we practically remanufacture the aircraft.”

As part of their return to fying status, Kfrs are stripped down, rebuilt, rewired and equipped with modern systems. “As the original manufacturer of the plane, IAI guarantees these refurbished planes can fy 8,000 hr., which, under normal

operational tempo, could last for up to 40 years,” Melamed adds.

A critical factor in the Block 60 mis-sion efciency is the aerial refueling capability and airborne datalink sup-port. Conforming to NATO standards, Kfr Block 60 supports Link-16 datalink protocol.

“Networking is an important ele-ment in the modernization of an air force; in the past we upgraded avi-onics and complete aircraft. Now we are ofering an upgrade to a complete fleet of aircraft—enabling members of a formation, or even larger groups,

to share information, targets and situ-ational pictures, to assist and support each other in targeting, identifcation and engagement,” explains Melamed.

The latest confguration, designat-ed Kfr Block 60, turns the Kfr into a fourth-generation fghter, IAI ofcials say. It is based on the Colombian Kfr C10 single-seat version, with a few im-provements. The most notable is the in-stallation of the Elta EL/M-2052 active, electronically scanned array (AESA) to replace the EL/M-2032 mechani-cal, scanning antennas. These radars can simultaneously track 64 targets, engaging selected ones from beyond-visual-range (BVR) with Derby radar-guided missiles. In addition, the radar supports air-to-surface operating modes that are useful for long-range targeting of naval surface targets. The

use of Litening targeting and recon-naissance pods and precision-guided weapons, such as laser-guided bombs or electro-optical guided weapons, is expected to further enhance the Kfr’s operational capabilities.

Another new feature of the Kfr C10, C12 and Block 60 is the frameless wind-shield, which is designed to improve pilot visibility in the forward section. Python V air-to-air missiles are also supported, cued by the pilot’s line of sight using a helmet-mounted display.

Tested against Sukhoi Su-30 fight-er jets, those latest-generation Kfirs equipped with EL/M-2032 radars proved superior in head-on engagement, given their low radar cross-section (RCS) and first-look, first-shoot of BVR missiles. This advantage was particularly impor-tant where Kfrs could engage targets at long range, while keeping a tight for-mation, allocating targets from a single radar over the formation data link. Such

techniques have been developed for the Lockheed Martin F-22 and F-35 fifth-generation fghters.

The assertions made by IAI are not theoretical. Colombian Kfrs per-formed all their ground-attack mis-sions and also engaged “enemy” fght-ers, claiming eight kills in the Red Flag combat exercise in July 2012.

The sale to Colombia motivated IAI to offer Kfirs to other air forces. Its main advantages are a low acquisition cost and long life cycle. Based on years of operational use, IAI also emphasizes Kfr’s high reliability and low operating cost. The acquisition cost of the Kfir Block 60 would be around $20 million each, including the avionics and weap-onry, and its operating costs would be about 25% of those for an equivalent fourth-generation fghter jet. c

Israel Aerospace Industries is touting Kfr Block 60’s airborne datalink sup-port and its aerial refueling capability.

Israel aerospace IndustrIes

Graham Warwick Washington

Opposing TiltAbe Karem’s tiltrotor features

variable speed rotors, rigid blades

ENGINEERING

When the Pentagon set out its Future Vertical Lift (FVL) strategy to develop a family of advanced ro-torcraft to replace its feets of helicopters originally

designed in the 1960s and ’70s, one goal was to engage non-traditional suppliers to bring more innovation into the sector.

With the inclusion of two startup companies among the four teams awarded contracts for the U.S. Army’s Joint Multi- Role technology demonstration (JMR TD), the Defense De-partment has taken a step toward that goal. Bell Helicopter and a Sikorsky/Boeing team may still be the favorites to fy two high-speed rotorcraft demonstrators in 2017, but they face real competition from two relative unknowns.

AVX Aircraft had already declared its hand, previously un-veiling the 230-kt. coaxial-rotor, ducted-fan compound helicop-ter it is designing for JMR. But Karem Aircraft was not con-frmed as a contender until Oct. 2, when the Army announced the four cost-sharing technology investment agreements for the $217 million JMR TD Phase 1 fight demonstration.

Karem Aircraft was formed in 2000 by Abe Karem, design-er of the Predator unmanned aircraft and A160 Hummingbird unmanned helicopter, to develop his optimum-speed tiltrotor (OSTR) concept. Along with the other teams, Karem now has $6.5 million and nine months to complete preliminary design of its JMR demonstrator, the TR36TD, after which the Army will select two designs to be built and fown.

Karem is saying little about the design, except that the demonstrator will have two 36-ft.-dia. variable-speed rotors, powered by existing turboshaft engines, and that a production version would be capable of 360 kt. in level fight—faster than Bell’s 280-kt. V-280 “third-generation” tiltrotor and Sikorsky/Boeing’s 230-kt. coaxial rigid-rotor, pusher-propulsor design.

But some insight into the OSTR design is available from Karem’s private-venture work on the 90-seat AeroCommuter and 180-seat AeroTrain commercial tiltrotors, and concept studies of a large cargo rotorcraft, the TR75, performed from

2005-10 under the Army-led Joint Heavy Lift project. JMR is a smaller rotorcraft, the precursor to a planned replacement for the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk (see page 77).

The OSTR has long, light and stif blades rigidly attached to the hub, which in turn is rigidly mounted to the nacelle—a lighter and less complex design than the articulated and gim-balled hub on the Bell Boeing V-22. Instead of a swashplate and pitch links, the blades are individually controlled by electric actuators in the hub, saving weight and increasing reliability.

“Most designs let the rotor shake the aircraft then try to damp it. That is not a good concept,” says Karem. “We take the loads at the source—the blade—and do not make it fex-ible. And we do things with the blades as they go round so as not to create those loads. We need individual blade control, and also higher harmonic control.”

To optimize blade-loading and maximize propulsive ef-ciency in vertical and forward fight, rotor speed is reduced by at least 25%, and as much as 40% in some OSTR designs, between hover and airplane mode. Rather than redesign the power turbine to operate over such a wide speed range, Ka-rem uses a multispeed gearbox to vary prop rpm while letting the engine run at its most efcient high speed.

Where the V-22 has a relatively short, thick wing to support the tilting rotors and avoid an aeroelastic instability known as whirl futter, caused by oscillation of the nacelles, Karem notes the OSTR’s light and stif rotors delay whirl futter and allow a longer-span, higher aspect-ratio wing for increased lift-to-drag ratio (3-4 times that of the V-22) and cruise efciency in airplane mode. To reduce download from rotor downwash on the longer wing, the outboard wing extensions tilt with the nacelles.

Hingeless rotors provide high control authority, allowing Karem to shrink the size of the tail, which is V-shaped on the TR36TD, and reduce drag. The design uses the very high mast moments generated by the rigid rotors for pitch and directional stabilization and control, and in some OSTR designs, the tail area is just 18% of the wing area, compared with the V-22’s 105%.

The blades, nacelles, wing and fuselage are made from lightweight, high-strength composite, which would be pro-duced in large integrated pieces using out-of-autoclave pro-cessing, and Karem is projecting an empty weight 20-40% lower than the V-22’s. He has patented a method of curing composites under tensile stress to increase the compressive strength of the blades and upper wing skins. Aircraft systems on a production OSTR would be all-electric. c


Concave spinners on Karem’s TR36TD tiltrotor would reduce loads on the rigid blades.

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is a trademark, both of Exelis Inc.

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With only a short reprieve in 2011, European regional airlines have been in crisis mode

ever since. The trend continues, but industry officials speak of a renewed sense of

optimism, even though fgures and individual airline cases hardly justify that mood.

When airline executives spoke of better fortunes waiting just around the corner at the recent European Regions Airline Association (ERA) general as-sembly, they were showing indirectly how desperate their situation has be-come. In the frst half of 2013, the Eu-ropean regional airline industry con-tinued to shrink. Passenger numbers across the 50 ERA members declined by 7.2%, and the number of seats ofered was down by 10.1%. In the second half of the year, the contraction was expected to be smaller, but Europe’s regionals are still far from a growth mode.

Nevertheless, ERA Director Gen-eral Simon McNamara says, “I’d like to think things will improve next year. I don’t think we are going to go back to easy sailing, but at least it will be a smoother ride.” Mark Lamidey, for-merly CEO of Brit Air and now a board member at French regional conglomer-ate HOP!, says that while growth was still limited to Eastern Europe in 2013, that trend will spread nearly continent-wide in 2014.

But airlines are coming to the re-alization that methods are changing. “The old model of independently op-erating regional routes is going away,” McNamara says. Those are either

taken over by mainline legacy or low-cost carriers. On the other hand, “you are already seeing the new model,” he points out. In his opinion, European re-gional airlines must be less dependent on a single source of income. Instead, they should spread the risk across sev-eral streams. The three pillars region-als can count on in the future include: niche point-to-point markets that are too small for low-cost and mainline carriers; ACMI (aircraft, crew, main-tenance, insurance) work for major air-lines; and ad-hoc charters, particularly in the 50-seat segment.

However, those niches appear to be far smaller than the sector of the market the carriers had grown into since the 1990s, when the 50-seat air-craft revolution changed European air transport almost as much as it did the U.S. market. Even supplying ACMI services for the majors is by no means an assured way forward, sim-ply because the majors themselves are increasingly centering their own networks and hubs around the use of larger aircraft. Lufthansa alone has terminated agreements with Cirrus Airlines, Contact Air and Augsburg Airways over the past year. Cirrus and Contact are now in bankruptcy

Jens Flottau Salzburg, Austria

Bucking the TrendIndicators for the European regional airlines remain negative,

but growth is a hot topic for many

AIR TRANSPORT

proceedings, and Augsburg will cease flying by the end of the month. And even when the larger airlines do tap regionals for some routes, they execute cost-saving contracts that do not pro-vide much proft.

Other high-profile restructuring cases include the quasi-merger of Air France regional afliates into the HOP! unit, which some industry analysts say is a matter of not going far enough. The ongoing problems at Iberia’s regional feeders, Air Nostrum and Flybe, show that even large carriers (Flybe is the largest independent regional in Eu-rope) face the same issues as their smaller peers. “The most damaging factor for us is the economy,” McNa-mara says, referring to the general weakness of intra-European trafc.

Operationally, the airlines have already changed significantly. The combined load factor is 10 percentage points higher than in 2002, and has improved every year.

On the feet side, regional airlines continue to dispose of their 50-seat models, while the 70- 90-seat segment is becoming the core. The average air-craft size is now at 83 seats.

Also, many ERA members are re-verting to turboprops to reap the ben-

Adria Airways is one of the European regionals with ambitious growth plans.

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EYES FRONT

Linking Technology, Programs and Policy Across Defense

AviationWeek.com/defense� aviation�week�&�space�technology�DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY EDITION octoBeR�14/21,�2013��DT1

Technology Targets Future Soldier Costs

Page DT8


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Defense Technology Edition

VEHICLE DESIGN

DT2 aviation week & space technology DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY EDITION october 14/21, 2013 AviationWeek.com/defense

Contents

FEAturES

Dt2 Vehicle Protection

Concepts evolve for

armored defense

Dt8 View to the Future

COTS equipment and apps

equip sci-f warriors

DISPAtCHES

Dt12 Kicking tires

U.S. Army takes time

rebuilding its feet

Dt14 Overseeing relief

Aerial drones suit

humanitarian missions

Dt16 Streamlining research

Combat simulator tests

dismounted technologies

tECHNOLOGy SCANDt18 Printing blood vessels;

shooting mobile robots;

sensor resists jet heat;

ample beryllium supply

FIrSt PErSON

Dt22 British Maj. Gen. (ret.) Jonathan

Shaw discusses cyberdefense

Dt18

Dt19

the next issue of the Defense technology

Edition will be dated Nov. 25.

Vehicle protection technology has made enormous strides

since the improvised explosive device (IED) threat emerged

in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with the use of rocket-propelled

grenades (RPGs) and ballistic threats. The V-hull concept pio-

neered in South Africa was adapted and modernized for difer-

ent conditions. New materials were introduced, starting with

ceramics that had previously been confned to tank armor, pro-

gressing into sophisticated ceramic and plastic hybrid systems,

and much stronger transparent materials. Slat armor and other

counter-RPG techniques were adopted, and active defense sys-

tems developed.

David Eshel Tel Aviv, Christina Mackenzie Paris and Bill Sweetman Washington

Armored EconomyModular protection is the new wave in armor

But both the Afghan and Iraqi op-erations covered large distances, in ur-ban environments and on poor roads, thousands of miles from the homelands of coalition nations. More protection meant less tactical mobility. Heavy ve-hicles were confned to the best roads and were slow and cumbersome in the cities—so while they were harder to kill, they were easier to hit. They also used more fuel, requiring more road convoys and creating yet more targets. Strategic mobility sufered—even the largest aircraft could haul only two or three vehicles at a time.

The next phase was the full-scale integration of advanced technology to combine mobility with protection, from all-composite body shells to more sophisticated suspensions and running gear. (The U.K.’s Foxhound, for example, has four-wheel steering for urban mo-bility.) The snag is that such vehicles are too costly for most customers, particularly as attention moves away from the uniquely lethal Afghanistan environment and toward peacekeeping operations. The result is that the search is on for less-expensive answers.

The cost of complex armor systems blending metals, ceramics, monolithic plastics and composites remains high, and production capacity worldwide is

More camoufage, less armor is seen on Ocelot-S.

Bill Sweetman/aw&St

Proven.

Upgraded.

Ready now.

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both of Exelis Inc. Copyright © 2013 Exelis Inc. All rights reserved.

www.exelisinc.com/IDECMF-18 photo courtesy of

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When it comes to the ALQ-214, Exelis delivers.

For 16 years, every order has been filled early

or on time to ensure aircrews are protected. We

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limited. At least three ex-hibitors at the recent De-fense and Security Equip-ment International (DSEi) show in London presented new products based on steel armor: Force Protec-tion’s Ocelot-S, a lower-cost derivative of the Foxhound; Patria’s “new vehicle con-cept,” intended as a more versatile and roomy suc-cessor to the Finnish company’s 8 X 8 Armored Modular Vehicle; and Nexter’s Titus, a V-hulled, 10-person transport with a drivetrain based on Tatra commer-cial components. Originally the XP3, Titus was developed in parallel with an aluminum-hulled vehicle, XP2, but the latter was seen as too expensive for today’s market.

A highlighted feature of the new Nexter and Patria vehicles is an in-creased useful load, expressly intended to allow the operator to add modular armor as threats change through the vehicle’s lifetime, or to match the needs of a specifc operation, while accommo-dating equipment and weapons.

In an environment that favors of-road mobility, and protection against

mines as well as IEDs and RPG at-tacks, armor may be less important, because the adversary does not know where to efectively plant a bomb or lay an ambush. Thus, another Foxhound derivative is the Ocelot-S with classic open-frame special forces bodywork, lightweight armor and extensive cam-oufage.

Steel armor has not reached a dead end. At DSEi, Tata Steel said it had taken 200 sample orders for Pavise SBS 600P perforated armor, which had been unveiled the year before as an experimental product emerging from British academic research. It is based on a new steel alloy created with the aid of computational metallurgy. (By modeling molecular structures, it makes it possible to design alloys reliably for a given set of properties.) The new steel can be perforated and formed before it is hardened. Perfo-rated armor is light and more efective against projectiles, because the perfo-rations cause the incoming round to tumble and break up.

Renault Trucks Defense is also de-veloping a new-generation armor us-ing competitively priced steel, on the assumption there is a market for more affordable armor to protect lower-cost vehicles. The company’s product already meets Stanag 4569 (NATO standard) Level 3 for ballistic protec-tion and protects against 8-kg (17.6-lb.) mines under the center of the vehicle.

Charles Maisonneuve, Renault’s director of communications, says the company is “working toward Stanag Level 4,” which means the armor would provide protection from heavy

machine gun fire and from a 10-kg mine. There are still high-end require-ments, however, and in these areas Re-nault works with companies such as Germany’s IBD Deisenroth Engineer-ing, Holland’s Royal TenCate Advanced Armor and Israel’s Plasan Sasa. “We not only work with these companies but with the French procurement agency DGA, with which we cooper-ate to undertake the ballistic tests on products ofered by these companies,” Maisonneuve explains.

When the French army stated an urgent requirement for anti-RPG kits for the VAB armored vehicle, this procedure was applied to create the latest version, the Ultima, which was deployed earlier this year to protect logistics units during the drawdown from Afghanistan. Even if these kits are now more streamlined, they can-not stop all RPGs from detonating.

“They provide between 50 and 80 per-cent protection,” Maisonneuve says.

He adds that “it’s always a real head-ache integrating anti-RPG kits onto a vehicle.” Most RPG defenses are de-signed to trigger the warhead before it contacts the hull, so they efectively make the vehicle wider. Moreover, doors and hatches cannot be fouled or blocked, maintenance points on the vehicle must be accessible and the system must not hinder frepower or mobility. The company opted to buy 400 kits from Plasan Sasa after a com-parison with those ofered by Nexter and Qinetiq. Plasan has introduced an anti-RPG system called FlexFence, a blanket-like product rather than a slat-ted or netted shield, which is only a few inches thick.

Nexter ofers its own anti-RPG sys-tem in PG-Guard, a kit which, at 11 kg per sq. meter (24.2 lb. per sq. ft.), is claimed to be among the lightest solu-tions. The armor surrounds the vehicle

but panels swivel with the doors. Pan-els that can be quickly removed allow accessibility to chests and hatches. The system was designed to neutralize rockets as dangerous as the tandem-warhead RPG-7VR, but Nexter con-cedes that protection varies between 50-65%, depending on the rocket type.

For main battle tanks in an urban en-vironment, Nexter ofers Azur (action

en zone urbaine)—ftted on the Leclerc tank—which “ofers 100 percent pro-tection against RPG-like projectiles fred under any angle,” as well as de-feating 14.5-mm heavy machine gun fire, artillery fragments and “some” IEDs, according to the company.

Nexter’s SafePro family of armor plating includes SafePro Mine, which meets Stanag Levels 2-4; SafePro Ki-netic and IED, add-on passive armor combining ceramics, composites, aluminum alloys, titanium alloys and

French VAB vehicle is equipped with Plasan Sasa’s FlexFence counter-RPG system.

VEHICLE DESIGN

An RPG is defeated by Elbit Systems’ Tityus APS.

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steel providing protection up to Stanag Level 5; and SafePro SlatAlu, which provides any vehicle with a protection level “close to 70 percent” for an ex-tra weight of 10 kg per sq. meter. This is achieved with a “special aluminum alloy” much lighter than steel. Sla-tAlu can be used as a complementary system to main armor or as principal protection.

Renault is also researching active protection systems (APS) but is wres-tling with the difculty of using such systems in areas where there are likely to be “friendlies” or noncom-batants, owing to collateral damage from a system’s explosive reaction to incoming rounds. “This means the system can only be used in particular environments such as deserts or mountains,” Maisonneuve says. The system is costly, and only suitable for vehicles that can accommodate an ex-tra turret.

So far, the Israeli Tro-phy, developed by Rafael, is the only operational APS. Other solutions are being tested, but none have been integrated into a combat-ready solution. In the Israeli view, mod-ern RPGs and missiles, with advanced tandem warheads and superior armor penetration, are lethal to ar-mored vehicles of all types.

Evolving Israeli APS concepts focus on lighter systems producing scaled ef-fects, enabling a single system to deal with diferent levels of threats by em-ploying diferent efectors. Some de-velopers are looking at variations on the use of multiple explosively formed projectiles as deployed by Trophy. Other solutions feature powered or un-powered hit-to-kill interceptors, frag-mentation, or blast efects. Some APS designers are looking at directed blast from wall-mounted countermeasures, but this has yet to be felded.

As the pioneer in this area, the Is-rael Defense Forces (IDF) continues to evolve two variants of Trophy. The 800-kg HV, already on the Merkava Mk4 tank, protects heavy platforms, while a 450-kg system, is for lighter wheeled or tracked combat vehicles.

As noted, a major concern is mini-mizing collateral damage from APS, particularly in urban areas. To do this,

and protect lighter vehicles, diferent threat-defeat mechanisms are being considered. Such concepts are taking shape at Rafael, with Trophy LV, and Elbit Systems’ Tityus, unveiled at DSEi. Like Trophy LV, Tityus is a roof-mount-ed system that generates a dynamic “curtain” close to the vehicle, reducing the risk of long-range collateral damage.

An APS requires a threat-warning system that detects potential threats, determines whether they are a danger to the vehicle and activates the system automatically. The warning system—usually radar, electro-optical sensor, or a fusion of the two—also provides situational awareness for the vehicle commander and crew.

A new entry in this feld is the RPS-

15 from Rada, to be displayed at the Association of the U.S. Army conven-tion in Washington this month, which detects, tracks, classifes and locates direct and elevated threats fired at a protected vehicle. It computes the point of origin and point of impact of threats, ranging from small arms to anti-tank guided missiles and tank pro-jectiles. This information is essential for hit avoidance, whether by maneu-ver, counterfre or countermeasures. Elta’s Windguard radar, selected by the IDF and operational with Trophy, is similar.

Another new technology is from Is-raeli armor expert Oran Safety Glass, which introduced transparent armor based on advanced crystallized mate-rials. Compared with standard lami-nated glass and polycarbonate, the transparencies are up to 60% lighter

and thinner, more transparent and with night-vision devices.

Another aspect of combat vehicle protection is fre suppression. As with mine or rocket protection, defensive measures are taken against diferent fre threats, a technique made possible by multi-zone suppression systems. The Israeli company LVT developed such a system to protect the Maxx-Pro Mine Resistant, Armor Protected (MRAP) vehicles used by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Such multizone systems defeat fre-bomb attacks by putting out fres erupt-ing on the roof, using foam dispensers. The rubber tires and wheel wells are protected by a different zone of the fre-suppression system, designed to

address the challenges of fuel and rubber fires. A Spider Delta detector and nozzles, spraying a liquid agent, puts out the fire and prevents reigni-tion. A similar system, us-ing HFC 227 extinguish-ing gas, puts out fires in the engine compartment, while fires caused by an IED rupturing the fuel tank and igniting sprayed fuel are often suppressed by powders, protecting the tank and surrounding areas that may be afected by spraying fuel.

Fire protection in the cabin requires a diferent solution. To minimize haz-ards from blast and burns, detectors automatically activate water-mist ex-tinguishing systems. This method is superior to HFC, due to the absence of toxic gases. The water mist flls the compartment for 40-50 sec., causing a sudden temperature reduction that blocks heat buildup. Water mist also cools, allowing crewmembers to stay inside the protected cabin, avoiding enemy fre.

Nexter is also addressing the prob-lem of protecting lighter vehicles against incendiary attacks. Together with French fire equipment manu-facturer L’Hotellier, the company has developed the Molotov Extinction kit. This is a set of fexible pipes on the out-side of a vehicle near vulnerable areas, such as the roof and wheels. Either automatically or manually, the pipes distribute the fre-extinguishing agent, stored in an external pack, allowing a fre to be extinguished in seconds. c

Nexter Aravis vehicle in Afghani-stan uses PG Guard anti-rocket protection system.

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Elbit Systems’ Raptor is based on smartphone technology and man-ages the display, navigation and communications systems built into the lightweight Dominator system.

David Eshel Tel Aviv and Angus Batey and David Hambling London

From Mall to FrontlineCommercial technology is key to infantry systems

Technical realities, the impact of the global economic crisis and oth-er pressures on defense budgets

have slowed but not stopped the de-velopment of “future soldier” systems worldwide. The need to provide soldiers with the kind of connectivity and situ-ational awareness they routinely use when out of uniform is more urgent than ever. Some of the key goals, such as reducing the size, weight and power (SWaP) requirements of the equipment a soldier carries, have not changed, but cost is more important. Solutions need to leverage the smartphone and com-puting technology with which soldiers are familiar in civilian life.

In responding to the many differ-ent requirements, industry is faced with a stark choice. Manufacturers will be building less equipment—with as many elements of the soldier sys-tems as possible being commercial of-the-shelf (COTS) products already de-risked and reduced in price by the civilian marketplace—and they are ex-pected to reduce the fnancial as well as the SWaP burden. In addition, these systems-of-systems will create consor-tia and supply chains almost as long and complicated as those in big-ticket procurements, but with much less po-tential proft.

In Israel, SWaP and cost are being addressed as upgrades to the Elbit-in-tegrated Israel Defense Forces digital army program (DAP), also known as Zayad. The element of the system that soldiers wear is called Dominator, and similar systems have been exported to several armed forces, among them the Australian Army.

Over the years, Dominator has shrunk into a smaller, lighter, leaner machine, comprising the Personal Digital Unit (PDU) wearable computer, weighing 450 grams (15.8 oz.), an 8-in. touchscreen display used primarily for planning and debriefing and an eye-piece tailored for combat operations. The PDU runs a dedicated networking middleware called Tiger that stream-lines and synchronizes data transfer to match a user’s access permission. The PDU runs voice, data, video and com-munication interfaces supporting all

peripheral equipment, saving weight by performing functions that used to require separate units.

The next evolutionary step for Dominator is a lighter and leaner set of equipment that weighs only 2.5 kg (5.5 lb.), known as Dominator Light Warrior (DLW). It was announced a year ago but publicly unveiled at the Defense and Se-curity Equipment International (DSEi) show in London last month. Adhering to the modern smartphone concept, El-bit’s new Raptor ruggedized computer has a 4.3-in. touchscreen, Android op-erating system, GPS, digital compass, moving map and standard library of

built-in services, plus apps that can be downloaded from the network.

The Raptor supports networked and offline operating modes, as it estab-lishes ad hoc wireless connectivity or links over secure data networks via the soldier’s radio, where it can synchro-nize specifc fles among team mem-bers (sending order sets or receiving reports). Raptor is physically linked to the radio when it docks in the wearer’s webbing.

Elbit Systems opted to develop its own ruggedized device, after testing demonstrated the limitations of even hardened consumer systems in rough conditions, such as operation with pro-tective suits or exposure to oil, dirt and dust. The Raptor includes energy-sav-ing features and a clear display under all light conditions. Future devices will support operations with night-vision goggles.

While the Raptor can link to any ra-dio, two sets have been integrated to best ft DLW application—PNR-1000 and SDR7200HH. The frst is a com-pact, lightweight UHF soldier radio, supporting voice and high-rate data communications. The radio supports up to 60 users in fve networks, shar-ing command-and-control applica-tions. The SDR7200HH is an advanced software-defned multiband radio that accommodates any waveform that meets international Software Com-munications Architecture standards, matching the user’s needs and com-munication requirements.

Complementing the soldier kit are observation and target-acquisition systems similar to Elbit’s Coral and Mini Coral systems, as well as dis-mounted satellite terminals and re-mote video receivers enabling ground elements to tap imagery delivered by unmanned aerial vehicles. All these are automatically networked into the TORC2H command-and-control sys-tem. The entire ensemble is powered by a battery pack that provides 24-36 hr. of operation, depending on use in-tensity. The Raptor also implements smart energy-management software that controls power consumption.

In the U.S., there is no Zayad-like system on which to build, so a company such as Qinetiq North America takes a mix-and-match approach to soldier modernization. The company’s Inte-grated Warfghter program includes the Q-Hub, a small unit that gives power and data connectivity to numer-

Future soldiers

BAE Systems’ Q-Warrior helmet-mounted display has a feld of view of 40 X 30 deg. It attaches to a FAST helmet rail. Its power require-ment is similar to an iPad.

BAE SyStEmS

ElBit


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complete self-protection system, and operations on short and semi-prepared strips.

ous devices via USB, a range of low-form-factor batteries designed to be worn inside body armor or placed in backpacks, and various connectors and adaptors.

This innovation has been driven by the need to integrate and support numerous extant devices, few if any made by the company. It is being of-fered piecemeal in up to 40 soldier modernization procurement programs, with a key selling point being that cus-tomers do not need to buy the entire system, just parts they need.

“Very early on in the U.S., the gov-ernment decided that they wanted to act as the lead systems integrator,” says Trent Shackelford, the company’s director of survivability projects, ex-plaining the background to this new way of working. “They did not want to be locked down into a special custom system that they would not be able to upgrade themselves and add to. One of the advantages we have by break-ing this down into individual build-ing blocks is, if we can ofer a single power and data hub to multiple coun-tries, then everyone benefts from the fact that we can divide them up, and therefore the price comes down. And you would hope that there would be interoperability between those coun-tries, as well.”

Also presented at DSEi was BAE Systems’ Q-Warrior, which promises to be the frst practical, wide-feld-of-view head-up display for the dismounted sol-dier. It is likely to be crucial for exploit-ing new sensors, communication and navigation systems without overloading the soldier with information. The dis-play also provides a tactical advantage by not requiring the soldier to take a fnger of the trigger or look down.

Ross Hobson, engineering project manager at BAE Systems, describes Q-Warrior as the military equivalent of Google Glass, but much more ad-vanced than its civilian counterpart.

Aviation Week assessed the latest version of Q-Warrior at DSEi. It is impressively light. The display and tracker together weigh less than 1 lb., thanks to optical waveguide technol-ogy that uses difraction to display a bright, infnity-focused image on a fat, laminated glass panel. The monocular

display produces clear, high-resolution color images. It is usable in sunlight and darkness, and compatible with night-vision goggles. The focusing system allows the soldier to read the display while looking at objects in the distance or close by without strain-ing.

The application exam-ined by Aviation Week was a Blue/Red Force Tracker program. This

overlays the field of view with col-ored symbols marking the location of friendly, hostile and non-hostile forces, updating instantly via head movement. It is intuitive: Color-coding instantly identifes which vehicles or troops are friendly. This could be important when the decision to shoot or hold fre has to be made rapidly.

There is also an augmented reality navigation application, which over-lays waypoints, items of interest and targets on the soldier’s field of view, removing the need to look down to consult a map or GPS. Hobson says it gives soldiers something that is as easy as a talking satellite navigation system, rather than the road atlas they are used to.

An app for joint terminal air con-trollers (JTAC) indicates locations of available air assets, displaying call signs, distance, altitude and available munitions. This is used with the force tracker app to check for friendly forces near a target area, and has been suc-cessfully tested at the U.S. Army’s Yuma, Ariz., proving ground. Another

application provides a feed for real-time video imagery from unmanned vehicles or other sources in color and high resolution. Other applications are likely to be developed as needed.

Six Q-Warrior systems are being supplied to U.S. Special Operations Command for evaluation as part of a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program. BAE Systems has also received expressions of interest from other users who want to become early adopters. While the technology is likely to be expensive at frst, the price should fall rapidly as larger numbers are produced. Future systems are also likely to be smaller; Hobson says sub-sequent generations are likely to be closer to the size of a pair of goggles.

Raytheon is incorporating similar optical waveguide technology into a lightweight “look-to-designate” system that allows a JTAC to acquire a target’s coordinates and transmit them to an aircraft without manually composing the standard nine-line attack order.

The system has a helmet-mounted monocle, chest-pack processor and wrist-worn control-and-display unit. The JTAC puts the helmet display’s boresight on target and uses the CDU to designate it and send coordinates to the aircraft. The target cues appear on the aircraft displays and can be used to slew the fghter’s targeting pod onto the objective. The system can present information from other sources, such as Blue-Force tracking systems. All data is geo-registered—i.e., tagged with its location on a 3-D terrain mod-el. The same terrain database makes it possible to determine target location from the observer’s position and look angle.

There are two technological keys to making the system work, Raytheon engineers say. The frst is the helmet display, which uses the same optical waveguide screen as new-generation head-up displays and helmet-mount-ed aircraft displays. (The technology comes from Lumus of Israel.) The display is thinner and lighter than a prism, uses less power, displays color imagery and fts behind night-vision goggles.

The other, more difcult challenge is fguring out where the helmet points. Raytheon uses an inertial measure-ment unit and other techniques to cor-rect long-term drift. The system will include 3-D audio to cue the JTAC to targets from other sources. c


Raytheon’s prototype “look-to-designate” system for joint terminal attack controllers in-corporates georegistra-tion and head-tracking features.

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While contractors work on integrat-ing COTS technology into military systems, operators such as these USAF JTACs are using solutions such as the Digitally Aided Close Air Support suite, hosted on a com-mercial Panasonic computer.

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Shifting GearsU.S. Army is developing ground

feets slowly and carefully

After spending much of the past decade pushing its ground equipment to the limit to meet

combat needs during the Iraq and Af-ghanistan wars, the U.S. Army is tak-ing more measured steps in rebuilding its feets.

Consider the approach in develop-ment of the Joint Light Tactical Ve-hicle (JLTV), a program the service shares with the U.S. Marine Corps, to replace the High Mobility, Multi-Pur-pose Wheeled Vehicle (Humvee) that has been in service since 1985.

“They are being deliberate,” says John Bryant, senior vice president of defense programs for Oshkosh Defense, which, along with AM General and Lockheed Martin, re-ceived JLTV engineer-ing and manufacturing development contracts in August 2012 worth $185 million for the pro-gram. The JLTV tech-nology development contracts were awarded in October 2008, and the single, low-rate initial-production contract is not scheduled until 2015.

After taking knocks from Congress for spending large sums to quickly ramp up production and deploy Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected vehicles in Iraq and other special ve-hicles for Afghanistan, the services are taking their time with the JLTV, Bryant says, to make sure require-ments and capabilities match up at reasonable cost.

Right now, the R&D cost to develop and buy 54,599 vehicles is $497.1 mil-lion, while the procurement cost is estimated at $22.2 billion. The total funding package is $22.7 billion.

Bryant says the JLTV program should fare well under scrutiny from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and Government Accountabil-ity Ofce (GAO). The CRS, however, notes that there could be congressio-nal concerns over “reported possible

JLTV budget shortfalls starting in fs-cal 2015.”

Bryant acknowledges that there might be funding issues later in the program associated with sequestra-tion. And, as the GAO points out, the JLTV will have to battle with other major Army ground programs.

“The Army plans to move ahead with procurement of JLTV at about the same time that it plans to start procurement of other new and costly programs, such as the Ground Com-bat Vehicle (GCV) and Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV),” the GAO re-

ports. “The procurement of all three programs is expected to continue for a decade or more.”

The AMPV fleet is the proposed replacement for the M113 family of ve-hicles in brigade combat teams. It will focus on fve missions: general purpose, medical evacuation, medical treatment, mortar carrier and mission command.

The Army says the AMPV will help the service overcome mobility defcien-cies identifed in the M113, which also has space, weight, power and cooling limitations that prevent the incorpora-tion of future technologies. The service plans to buy 3,198 vehicles for $8.3-9.4 billion, with system development scheduled to start during the third quarter of fscal 2014.

The GCV, of course, is a more in-volved program meant to replace seg-ments of the Army’s combat vehicle in-ventory. The frst variant is intended to be the service’s next infantry fghting

vehicle, replacing a portion of the M2 Bradley feet.

“The Army wants GCV to provide a full-spectrum capability to perform ofensive, defensive, stability and sup-port operations; carry a nine-soldier squad; emphasize force protection; and be available within seven years of beginning technology development,” the GAO notes.

But the GCV hit early program speed bumps. At the beginning of the year, the Army took steps to make the program more afordable and, as the GAO puts it, “executable.” This entailed extending the technology development phase, delaying system development and production, and se-lecting a single prime contractor at the start of system development.

“These actions provide signifcant reductions to the funding necessary to execute the program over the next several years,” the GAO states.

The total GCV program price tag is $37.9 billion, with $7 billion of that for R&D and $25.4 billion for procure-ment. The Army needs 30 develop-ment models and plans to buy 1,874 vehicles.

The GCV delays are raising hopes for those who want to continue Brad-ley manufacturing and improvement eforts. Sens. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.) recently wrote Army Secretary John McHugh asking him to consider maintaining funding for Bradley manufacturing in future budget requests.

While commending the Army for its recent budgetary report to the House Appropriations Committee, which con-tains a fscal 2014 request of $288 mil-lion for modernization of the Bradley during fscal 2014 and 2015, the sena-tors ask McHugh to consider funding modernization of additional vehicles as the Army develops its budget for fscal 2015 and beyond.

However, BAE Systems said in September that it plans by year-end to close the Pennsylvania plant that overhauls and upgrades military equipment for the Bradleys. c


DispAtches

Oshkosh Defense operated a prototype at a JLTV demo in June.

Tap the icon in the digital AW&ST Defense Technology edition for more background on the U.S. Army’s chal-lenges in reconstituting its ground

vehicle feet, or go to AviationWeek.com/reset

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Danger-Zone DronesUnmanned systems are seen

aiding disaster relief and peacekeeping


DispAtches

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are proven intelligence gatherers and terrorist hunters,

but military and civilian organizations conducting stability operations around the world say drones may be as valu-able for keeping the peace.

For the frst time, United Nations’ peacekeepers are getting their own UAS to monitor truce violations and military buildups in the strife-torn eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). After years of deliberation, the U.N. approved plans to acquire a Falco unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) made by Selex ES, a unit of Finmeccanica. Deployment to the DRC is expected in December.

Falco’s deployment will be “a re-ally important test case,” says Walter Dorn, professor of defense studies at Canadian Forces College and the Royal Military College of Canada. “The U.N. is holding back other activities such as deploying UAVs in Ivory Coast and South Sudan, waiting to see the results

of the Congo experiment,” adds Dorn, who has conducted U.N.-sponsored peacekeeping research in Congo, Cy-prus, Guatemala, Haiti and Lebanon.

“There are dozens of uses for this technology,” said U.S. Army Col. (ret.) Christopher Holshek, an international peace and security consultant. He and other speakers at a Sept. 16 conference here, on unmanned systems’ role in peacekeeping and stability operations, said uses include aerial monitoring of everything from humanitarian as-sistance, cease-fre and peace agree-ments to disarmament and compli-ance with economic sanctions. A goal of the conference was to launch a dia-logue “about using this technology for peace,” Holshek said. The gathering was sponsored by the local chapter of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (Auvsi), the Re-serve Ofcers Association, Alliance for Peacebuilding, and other peace and stability groups.

After the devastating 2010 Haitian

U.N. peacekeepers will use a Selex ES Falco drone, similar to this one at the Paris air show, to monitor the confict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Selex eS

earthquake, says Col. Bill Tart, director of the U.S. Air Force Remotely Piloted Aircraft Capabilities Div., photos taken by a USAF Global Hawk were shared with non-governmental relief organiza-tions to help them assess where help was most needed. U.N. peacekeepers from Belgium deployed four Israeli-made B-Hunter drones in Congo in 2006, and Irish troops brought along two Israeli-made Orbiter Mini UAVs in 2008.

But the missions that fall under the broad heading of stability operations are not limited to the military, ac-cording to Jennifer Mueller, director of programs and operations at the In-ternational Stability Operations Asso-ciation. “The term stability operations has become a full-spectrum, whole-of-government approach,” said Mueller, whose group represents companies that provide logistical and security support to peacekeeping and relief agencies, among them BAE Systems and DynCorp International.

The work, for civilian or military needs, has become more dangerous. Re-cent relief eforts following a 7.7-magni-tude earthquake in southwest Pakistan were hampered by rocket attacks from Balochistan separatists, including two that just missed a helicopter carrying the head of Pakistan’s disaster agency.

“Humanitarian operations are tak-ing place in increasingly complex en-vironments,” Mueller notes. “It is in-creasingly difcult to get staf into the

feld for assessment of any operation or humanitarian crisis,” she said at a briefng on UAVs and stability opera-tions at Auvsi’s annual conference in August. There was growing interest among her membership in UAVs to supply intelligence about potential threats or areas in need, according to Mueller. And that is where unmanned systems could be a big asset—espe-cially if they do not look like the drones used in missile strikes, she added.

Chris Van Buiten, vice president for technology and innovation at Sikorsky, said the autonomous helicopters his company is developing through the Matrix technology program (AW&ST Aug. 5/12, p. 47) could ft the bill. He noted Sikorsky has or is developing he-licopters that could mount cranes or transport water-purifcation systems.

Lockheed Martin’s K-MAX un-manned cargo helicopter has been delivering heavy cargo from remote

Marine Corps outposts in Afghani-stan since November 2011, eliminat-ing the need for truck convoys to travel dangerous roads, said Business Development Manager Jon McMillan. “In-theater, we’ve moved large water pumps and large generators,” he adds. With a hoist cable, K-MAX picks up or delivers cargo without landing, a risk reduction in dangerous areas.

There are issues to resolve, from

the reduced fying time of small, more afordable UAVs to the limited band-width that small aircraft and develop-ing countries have to handle massive data. There is also the issue of trust: persuading governments and local populations to trust those who want to fy unmanned aircraft in their skies. “I think in the next fve to 10 years, UAVs will be perceived diferently” as their role in relief grows, Mueller says. c

AviationWeek.com/defense aviation week & space technology DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY EDITION october 14/21, 2013 DT15

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Immersion TestingSimulator trials dismounted

combat technologies

The days of front-loading equip-ment programs with costly pro-totypes and field trials may be

over—at least if a simulator devel-oped by Chemring Technology Solu-tions (CTS) gains wide acceptance for research and development initiatives.

The U.K.-based company, whose focus is defense and security tech-nologies, recently developed the Dis-mounted Close Combat (DCC) simu-lator, which provides a fully immersive envi-ronment for preliminary testing of concepts and prototypes.

The DCC permits “a cost-efective analysis of future technology,” says Jonathan Farrington, a consultant engineer at CTS. “It allows model-ing in the environment without the expenses associated with trials.”

Farrington adds that the DCC simulator can test prototypes and con-cepts for 1/10th the cost of a feld trial. It also minimizes the en-vironmental impact of feld tests and is safer than a physical trial in evaluating new equipment.

Most importantly, though, it reduc-es design risks and speeds the devel-opment process. “Testing concepts in a simulator provides better [perfor-mance feedback] early on, instead of waiting for prototypes and live tri-als,” he says. “This does not replace live experimentation, but increases its utility.”

The system uses commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) products, including simulation software, to assure that no component relies on a special tech-nology or specifc manufacturer. Two versions of the DCC are available. The lab-scale setup uses a 180-deg. curved screen, six projectors mounted on a metal rig, four personal computers and eight infrared motion-tracking cam-eras to create an immersive environ-ment. A portable version is similarly

equipped but has a fat screen for easy setup, which CTS says takes as little as 40 min.

The simulator uses 0.5-in.-dia. tracking balls to match the movements of an individual and his weapon with the display. The tracking balls are mounted on a simple headset and a weapon. As an individual moves, the motion-tracking cameras relay data to the software, which immediately

adjusts the video display to provide an accurate perspective.

Engineers program the DCC simula-tor for diferent scenarios. CTS runs Virtual Battlespace 2 (VBS2) software from Bohemia Interactive, an open platform that uses advanced game technology and high-resolution video to simulate training scenarios for in-dividuals and groups. VBS2 and the updated VBS3 are in use by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps, as well as by forces in Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand.

The simulator, as the name suggests, is primarily for development work as-sociated with dismounted soldiers. Farrington says three research areas are among those now being tested with the DCC simulator: transmission of situational data through a rife optic (see photo); 3-D mapping techniques; and electronic warfare planning and information dissemination to soldiers and command centers.

In the rife optic work, for example, CTS uses the simulation to create real-istic combat scenarios and determine what data soldiers need to survive, the cognitive burden imposed with too much information and the optimum ergonomics of such a device—i.e., whether buttons, voice commands or other activation and control features are most efcient.

Data from each test can be down-loaded to a computer for analysis and review.

CTS has been working with the DCC system in equipment and technology trials for almost a year, though devel-opment stems from the company’s long experience in sensors and simulation. Funding for the simulator comes from the U.K. Defense Ministry, for which most trials are being done. CTS also uses the simulator to test equipment with private companies that work with the ministry.

Simulation has been gaining ground as a land forces development

tool among militaries and defense contractors in recent years, both for training and product and systems de-sign. Lockheed Martin, for example, received a $146 million contract in April to provide the U.S. Army with a simulation-based system called Joint Land Component Constructive Train-ing Capability. The software can be programmed to present complex oper-ational scenarios to train commanders and their staf in directing operations.

The Army, moreover, has for almost a decade operated a program execu-tive ofce (PEO) dedicated to simula-tion: PEO Simulation, Training and Instrumentation of Orlando, Fla.

In theory, Farrington says, many militaries could develop their own simulation systems for product devel-opment and training, since most are based on COTS equipment and soft-ware. The real measure of a simulation system’s efectiveness, though, is how realistic the experience is. “What we do [with the DCC simulator] is inte-grate the system very well,” he notes. c


DispAtches

A researcher tests a rife optic with data-transmission capability in the DCC simulator.

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The inks are an essential piece in the ongoing efort to turn printers into medical devices that create artifcial skin and muscle patches, nerve grafts, biofuids and, eventually, whole organs. Research teams globally are pursing 3-D printing and rapid prototyping techniques that show great promise, especially for regenerative medicine, which is already implanting lab-grown tissue in patients.

Gunter Tovar, a chemist and polymer expert at the University of Stuttgart and Fraunhofer Insti-tute for Interfacial Engineering and Biotechnology, has been working for the last several years with a team looking to build blood vessel and intricate capillary networks using 3-D printing and rapid prototyping. These printers can create solid, three-dimen-sional objects by building up tiny lay-ers of materials such as silica, plastics, metals or, in the Stuttgart researchers’ case, biological materials integrated with synthetic polymers.

These vessel networks are quite difcult to build. They must be elas-tic and flexible and able to interact and bond with living tissue, and can be extremely tiny and complex, with an incredible array of branching and spaces throughout. Creating workable vessel networks, however, is essential to building larger artifcial skin patch-es and organs. Organs and tissue need to be nourished by vascular systems. No lab has yet succeeded in creating

such a complex, functioning biosystem using a printer.

As 3-D printing machinery and expertise advances and become less expensive, it is possible to use soft-ware and computing power to model incredibly complex networks, such as vascular systems. Given the right in-gredients the printers should be able to do the job. This is where the inks

and materials come in. Tovar’s team is using chemistry and polymer science to create the source bio-ink used in building capillary networks.

In last month’s Journal of Materials Chemistry, the group, along with col-leagues at the Fraunhofer Institute, published its most recent experiments in developing bio-ink for inkjet print-ing of viable mammalian cells. The teams are using photo-sensitive mix-tures of methacrylated gelatin—basi-cally, denatured collagen—and acetyl molecules. The acetyl thins out the gelatin enough to prevent it from clog-ging inkjet nozzles, and yet the gelatin can be formed into lattices, networks and synthetic tubes.

“They render nicely biocompatible, elastic results,” Tovar says about the

A Stuttgart, Germany-based research team working on build-

ing artifcial blood vessels with 3-D printers recently took

another step forward by developing gelatin “bio-inks” that can

be sprayed through inkjet nozzles without clogging them.

Copying Capillaries

Michael Dumiak Berlin

3-D printing opens door

to man-made blood vessels


Tech Scan

ink developments. “It’s a crucial step.”The Fraunhofer teams are us-

ing a laser-flashing method to link molecules of the delicate developing capillary networks together. The re-sponses to the fast and intense laser bursts mean the vessels are fexible and elastic. The networks are formed so that peptides line the inside walls of the new vessels where they interact with living cells and hopefully devel-op a special, living lining that keeps blood moving.

The Fraunhofer teams are going to put the new inks to the test right away in developing vascularized skin—patches of skin nourished by blood-vessel networks—along with a broader European consortium that has received an €8 million ($10.8 million) research grant to do so.

But theirs is only one efort among several. Organovo, a startup in San Di-ego specializing in developing human tissue, is also experimenting in print-ing vascular structures at extremely tiny levels, according to LiveScience. The idea is to build the seed structures artifcially and then let living cells or-

ganize themselves around the synthet-ic forms. Organovo CEO Keith Murphy, who could not be reached by press time, revealed to LiveScience that he expects “tissue on demand” within the next decade, serving up substitutes for muscle patches and nerve grafts.

Researchers at Hannover Medical School in Germany demonstrated re-cently that they are able to use laser-assisted 3-D bioprinting to create skin tissue, which showed promise when tested on mice. And in England, Ox-ford University researchers earlier this year developed a printing technique using droplets and lipid molecules to mimic nerves and carry out the func-tion of tissues.

The rapid progress of regenerative medicine continues to be a hot topic at military trade shows and conferences. While mobile tissue fabrication in feld hospitals remains a distant goal, de-velopments in 3-D printing show it is more than hype. c

Researchers lay out a form for bio-ink at the Fraunhofer Institute for Interfacial Engineering and Biotechnology.

FraunhoFer InstItute

One problem in war is that enemies do not stand still to be dispatched with one shot. Hence, the importance of hitting mov-

ing targets. Rife practice in this area, though, is rare—even the U.S. Marine Corps falls short. This could be chang-ing, however. The Marine Corps War-fghting Laboratory (MCWL) tested techniques for accurately engaging moving targets last month in Quan-tico, Va. Marines fred M-4 carbines and M-27 infantry automatic rifes at

life-size plastic mannequins on tracked robots moving at 4-8 mph. The robots, known as Rovers and supplied by Marathon Robotics of Sydney, have sensors and wireless Ethernet. When hit, a mannequin falls over, transmits data to a central control and other robots, and rights itself. Marines engaged Rovers at 75 and 150 meters (246 and 492 ft.), while stand-ing, kneeling, prone and from ambush. Multiple shooting techniques were used. MCWL is analyz-ing data to determine which techniques worked best and how the fndings might infuence training. c

AviationWeek.com/defense aviation week & space technology DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY EDITION october 14/21, 2013 DT19

For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com/dti

TrAcking TArgeTs HeAT BArrier

A thermocouple developed at Cambridge University in Eng-land to measure jet engine temperatures near their combus-tion source reduces drift by 80% at 1,200C (2,192F), and 90% at 1,300C. Drift is degradation in a sensor, typically a double-walled nickel-based thermocouple in this application, which monitors engine heat. High temperature af-fects the integrity of components and thus, engine maintenance and life. Most nickel-based thermo-couples drift above 1,000C. This is a problem because many engines reach 1,500C. Thermocouples are sheathed in oxidation-resistant al-loys for heat resistance. While the outer wall improves thermal prop-erties, it contaminates the sensor, aggravating drift. To deal with heat and contamination, ther-mocouples are installed away from combustion sources, and temperature data are extrapolated based on relative position. In the new design, Michele Scervini and Cathie Rae of the Materials Science and Metallurgy Department, developed an outer wall of conventional oxidation-resistant nickel alloy and an inner wall of a diferent nickel alloy free of impurities. The structure’s drift resistance means the thermocouple yields more accurate data about heat and jet components. c

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Tech Scan

seA sTATe PredicTions

The U.S. Navy wants to develop an onboard sensor that pro-vides ships engaged in resupply at sea forecasts of environ-mental conditions, wave motions and ship movements such as pitch, heave and roll. The objective is to base materiel trans-fer decisions on the best available data to increase safety and efciency. A research partnership of industry and academia, led by the Ofce of Naval Research (ONR) and Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Div., tested hardware and software last month for the Environmental and Ship Motion Forecasting (ESMF) system. The system is intended to provide a 30-sec. ad-vanced warning of ship and wave movements, and up to a 5-min. prediction window for environmental conditions. The goal is to give operators and commanders enough advanced warning of sea and ship conditions to adjust their procedures or cancel an operation, if conditions warrant. The two-week sea trials used sensors, hardware and software onboard an ONR research

vessel. Data was de-veloped from ship-based surface radar, laser identification, detection and rang-ing, buoys and other equipment. ESMF tests with multiple ships are planned in fscal 2015. c

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Beryllium BAck on TrAck

The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory recently announced the success of an initiative with industry to restore adequate amounts of domestically manufactured primary beryllium met-al. The primary or high-purity beryllium is produced at a reduc-tion plant in Elmore, Ohio, operated by Brush Wellman. Access to a reliable domestic supply of primary beryllium, which is processed into “pebbles” for use in high-tech applications, is vital to U.S. defense. Beryllium is one of the lightest metals on Earth and six times stifer than steel. It holds its shape at high and low temperatures, resists corrosion and has outstanding electrical properties. As a result, beryllium is vital to forward-looking infrared systems on aircraft and guidance systems on missiles and satellites, among other applications. The Air Force was the executive agent for the Title III beryllium program, a multiyear efort to boost commercial production. The Elmore facility reportedly has nameplate capacity of 160,000 lb. per year of beryllium, and produced 11,000 lb. of pebbles in the first quarter. The U.S., one of the few countries that mine and process the metal, extracts as much as 85% of the world’s supply from a mine in Utah. c

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ing that the institutions are more im-portant than the executive coherence of government, which is nonsense.

Presumably, this attitude doesn’t just afect cyberdefense.

My favorite Cobra (Cabinet Office Briefing Room A, a colloquial name for committees that manage crises) incident, during the bovine foot-and-mouth outbreak, was when a minister came in to take charge, looked around the room and said, ‘I’m terribly sorry; you’re looking to me for leadership but I’m untrained for this role.’ There you have Whitehall in a nutshell: competent people who haven’t been given the com-petences to do the job they’re meant to do. It’s a systematic failing, a training problem—it’s structural, cultural, and it’s a disaster. And no one does anything about it.

How can defense attract and retain skilled people to do cyberwork?

When I left, [the ministry] was trying to create a large career path that you could stay in for a long time. What I argued in policy discussions across de-partments was that a national govern-

ment cyberqualifcation was required. Then you could have your career path by bouncing around departments, and you’d create a national cybercadre.

Is the increasing role of reserv-ists in the British military going to help cyberdefense?

If it is true that the cyberthreat is to the country and not the military, what you need is a national reserve of civil-ians who have nothing to do with the military to keep the national infra-structure on the road. I think that’s a powerful idea. But if you were to say that, it would make the nation terri-fied, and [politicians] don’t want to scare the public. I think the public probably needs scaring a bit, if we’re going to prepare for the attack rather than patch it up afterward.

(Ed. Note: On Sept. 29, the Defense Ministry announced creation of a Joint Cyber Reserve that will contribute to a ‘full-spectrum military cybercapabil-ity,’ including ofensive action.)

The U.K. 2010 Strategic Defense and Security Review promised £650 million ($1.04 billion) for cyberdefense, but details on how it has been spent are scarce. What has happened to it?

It was worked out in advance—that’s how the Defense Ministry put its bid in for £90 million ($146 million). The tragedy was that an organization such as BIS (Business, Innovation and Skills Department), which has a huge responsibility under the government plan, only got a tiny amount because it played the game wrong. It didn’t bid properly and didn’t realize what it was about.

But the £650 million is irrelevant, because that’s just what you see. It amazes me that no minister or corre-spondent makes this point. The gov-ernment investment in cybersecurity is way larger—at least 10 times bigger. The £650 million is for new stuf, but every department had to take respon-sibility, from its existing funding, for retroftting security to their systems. The Works and Pensions Department is the big one: It’s putting all govern-ment welfare data online, so the poten-tial for loss [via cyberattack] is enor-mous. Imagine the money it’s putting in to make systems secure. c

British Army mAj. Gen. (ret.)

jonAthAn shAw, CB, CBe

Born: 1957

education: Sedbergh School; Trinity College,

Oxford; Army Staf College 1989-90, Royal

College of Defense Studies 2006

Background: Platoon commander in 3 Para

during Falklands war; commanding ofcer, 2 Para,

1997-99; commander, 12th Mechanized Brigade,

2002-03; colonel commandant, Parachute

Regiment, 2008-12; chief of staf, U.K. Land

Forces, 2007-09; assistant chief of defense

staf (global issues), 2011-12. Is currently non-

executive director of Optima Defense Group Ltd.

First Person

Digital DefenderMaj. Gen. (ret.) Jonathan Shaw spent much of his British Army career in a parachute

regiment where his duties included commands in the Falklands and Iraq wars. He also

held staf positions in the Defense Ministry, culminating with leadership of U.K. cyberde-

fense operations. Shaw now works with Optima Defense Group Ltd., a British company

that provides counter-IED (improvised explosive device) training and technical solutions

in the feld, but maintains a keen interest in cyberdefense. He met with Contributing Edi-

tor Angus Batey at last month’s Defense Security and Equipment International (DSEi)

exhibition in London to discuss this vital area of national security.

Defense Technology: As the De-fense Ministry’s head of cyber, did you have a wider remit than de-fending the ministry’s networks?

Shaw: No, it was never expanded be-yond the narrow remit of protecting defense networks. And it was an inter-esting topic: What does defense mean if you’re facing cyberattack? Critical national infrastructure is the prov-ince of other government agencies, and they work with Government Commu-nications Headquarters (GCHQ), an intelligence agency, which holds the technical key to that.

The Cabinet Ofce manages the defense of critical national infra-structure. Is it e�ective?

I have sympathy for the Cabinet Ofce.It hasn’t got the resources or authority to provide leadership, and no power. All the power is with departments be-cause that is how Whitehall is set up. As Peter Ricketts (U.K. national secu-rity adviser, 2010-12) said: ‘We can’t interfere with departments. It’s in our constitution that ministers must be ac-countable in Parliament for the actions of their ministries.’ That’s actually say-


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rO

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efts of the type’s superior economics, rather than relying on jets as much as they have in the past. The French-Italian turboprop manufacturer ATR has been benefting from that trend far more than Canada’s Bombardier, which ofers a single type, the Q400. Turbo-props now make up more than 40% of the ERA feet of 700-plus aircraft.

Danish leasing specialist Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC) is pushing ATR hard to develop a proposed 90-seat turboprop. “Filippo [ATR CEO Filippo Bagnato] is understating the demand for the 90-seater,” NAC Chair-man Martin Moeller said at the ERA event in Salzburg. “When we talk to airlines, we see a lot of demand (for such an aircraft). It is about time.” The question is how much of that demand would come from Europe, given that recent large deals have been driven by growth in Southeast Asia.

Bagnato’s colleagues at Embraer are convinced that in spite of the econom-ic downturn in large parts of Europe, “there is still an awful lot of markets to be tapped,” as Simon Newitt, the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer’s vice president for Europe puts it. “We are paying a lot of attention to Eastern Eu-rope and the Commonwealth of Inde-pendent States region, where there are a lot of pioneering airlines.” Therefore, Embraer sees Europe as being “far from a mature market.”

Some airlines, like BMI Regional, are forced by unusual circumstances to undergo a complete revamp in the midst of the economic crisis. Parent BMI was sold to International Airlines Group (IAG) and was folded into IAG unit British Airways—without the re-gional division. Chief Executive Cathal O’Connell says the regional unit was the “crown jewel” in the BMI Group, but independent of whether that is true, the airline had to reinvent itself within a few months. It rebuilt its net-work and even entered the Swedish domestic market in an effort to find new and prosperous niches. But the fact that it is also seeking more char-ter work reveals a lot about how the feet is used. Also, BMI operates Em-braer ERJ 135s and 145s, which have a serious unit cost disadvantage over larger jets.

Many other regional airlines have been forced into painful restructuring programs, but the bright side is that a few are showing some encouraging improvements.

Adria Airways not only anticipates turning a profit soon, but it is also looking at strong growth over the next seven years. To achieve this, it must move beyond current boundaries. The airline hopes to double the number of passengers to 2 million between now and 2020. Strengthening its share in the inbound tourism market and de-veloping secondary bases in the region are the core pillars of Adria’s strategy, says CEO Mark Anzur. The two-prong plan is being developed as the Slove-nian government is trying to peddle the airline as part of a broader pack-age of state companies that are to be privatized. According to local media reports, China Southern has shown an interest in acquiring a stake.

The airline and the Slovenian gov-ernment are still under investigation by the European Commission over

whether a €70 million ($94.6 million) recapitalization in 2011 constituted illegal state aid. While that process continues, the airline has been reduc-ing losses from €67 million in 2011, to €10 million last year. Anzur anticipates Adria Airways will break even by year-end. The airline expects revenues of €150 million this year.

As part of the turn-around efort, the Star Alliance member has reduced its number of Bombardier CRJ200s from six to four and plans to phase out the type by 2015. The airline will increase the CRJ900 feet to six from four and intends to stick to that model until at least 2018. In addition, Adria has two Airbus A319s and one A320. The larger A320 is dedicated to char-ter runs—both longer-term arrange-ments for tour operators and for ad-hoc fying.

In spite of the high fuel prices, Adria is not inclined to buy turboprops.

The carrier has historically only op-erated from its home base in Slovenia’s capital, Ljubljana, but it is expanding its home market. “It is Southern Aus-tria, Eastern Italy and Slovenia,” An-zur says. While catching as much of

the growing inbound trafc as possible, the airline also plans to open two sec-ondary bases. One of Adria’s CRJ900s will be based in Tirana, Albania, next year and will operate one daily fight to Frankfurt. The airline is taking ad-vantage of an open skies agreement between Albania and the European Union, of which the country is not a member.

Also, Adria is establishing a base in Verona, Italy, using one of its CRJ200s. The airline plans to introduce services to Zurich, Vienna and Brussels next year from the Northern Italian city.

Another long-struggling carrier, Air Malta, says it is on track to break even next year. The airline, which was on the brink of collapse before being rescued by another government loan, expects to close the 2012-13 fnancial year end-ing in March 2014 with only a small

loss of around €3 million. That comes after losses of €13 mil-lion and €30 million in the pre-vious years. When its current CEO, Peter Davies, joined the airline two and a half years ago, Air Malta had just posted a €40 million loss (on €220 million in revenues) and was projected to lose another €55 million in the following year.

Davies says the Maltese government has left him a free hand to restructure and operate the airline without politi-cal interference. The carrier shed 500 of 1,300 jobs and reduced capacity as part of the European Commission ap-proval for the restructuring, in which the government provided a €52 mil-lion rescue loan. The total program was planned to raise €238 million in improvements with the airline itself providing half of that amount. The airline decided to sell almost all of its ancillary assets, which included hotels, a travel agency and acreage.

Air Malta currently operates a feet of four A319s and six A320s. Davies says the A321 would make sense for European trunk routes such as Brus-sels, London and Frankfurt, and as a tool to compete more effectively against Ryanair, thanks to the air-craft’s lower unit costs. Ryanair has based two aircraft in Malta and con-trols around 30% of the market. Air Malta’s market share is around 50%. Davies believes it is feasible in prin-ciple for smaller European airlines to be proftable, provided the right cost structure is in place. c


“I don’t think we are

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Cathy Buyck Brussels and Graham Warwick Washington

Will It Fly?Global agreement on market-based measures to

limit aviation emissions faces frst test in Europe

Depending on the viewpoint, the deal to limit greenhouse-gas emissions reached this month at

the International Civil Aviation Organi-zation (ICAO) Assembly in Montreal is either a success for aviation or a set-back for the environment.

Most airlines, governments and avia-tion organizations welcomed the deal, which put up obstacles to a patchwork of regional mechanisms becoming es-tablished before a global system of mar-ket-based measures (MBM) is agreed to and implemented. Environmental organizations and some politicians la-ment the agreement, which essentially prevents the European Union from ex-panding its own MBM, the Emissions Trading System (ETS), to cover foreign airlines fying in its airspace.

Despite the setback, EU ofcials put a brave face on the agreement reached in Montreal on Oct. 4, which commits ICAO to fnalize the details of a global MBM at its next Assembly in 2016 and implement the system in 2020. “I am very pleased that after long and hard negotiations we finally have a global deal on aviation emissions,” said Siim Kallas, European Commission (EC) vice president responsible for transport. “We have also avoided a damaging con-fict among trading partners.”

The International Air Transport Association, which pushed for a glob-al deal, was pleased. “Now we have a

strong mandate and a short three-year time frame to sort out the details. Air-lines need and want global MBMs,” says Tony Tyler, CEO and director general.

“Aviation has been advocating for [this] since we developed the frst global industry targets fve years ago. We now have agreement on a global scheme and . . . the building blocks to deliver it,” says Paul Steele, executive director of the Air Transport Action Group.

Environmental organizations are less sanguine. “By essentially restrict-ing the EU’s emission trading system for aviation to its own carriers and airspace, ICAO has handicapped the world’s leading legislation to put a price on aviation pollution,” states the World Wildlife Fund. The U.S.-based Environ-mental Defense Fund says: “A bedrock principle of international law is that na-tions have the sovereign right to limit pollution emitted in their borders. So ICAO took half a step backward with its attempt to narrow the ambit for coun-tries to implement their own [MBMs].”

Organizations on both sides recog-nized the EU’s role as a catalyst, frst by introducing ETS, then by suspending it for international fights until a global deal was reached. “The EU ETS, while it created tensions between states, also prompted action at a global level and their willingness to ‘stop the clock’ on extra-European flights provided the necessary welcome relief of tension in

the discussions,” says Steele.It will take weeks before all elements

of the ICAO resolution and “all words and articles are understood in a co-herent and compatible manner,” says one industry observer. There is linger-ing disagreement on a threshold that would exempt from MBMs the airlines of states with less than 1% of global air transport activity. Language that intro-duces the United Nations principle that developed nations have more responsi-bility and capacity to address climate change is similarly under fre.

The EU delegation, meanwhile, must still sell the deal to the European Par-liament (EP) and member-states. The EC is simply stating that, until 2020, countries “should—within certain pa-rameters—be able to deploy MBMs.” In coordination with the EP and member-states, the EC “will now assess the deci-sion taken at ICAO in more detail before deciding on the next steps with respect to the EU ETS,” says a spokesman for Connie Hedegaard, EU climate-change commissioner. A meeting of environ-ment ministers on Oct. 14 in Luxem-bourg “will surely discuss this,” he says.

Peter Liese, a member of the EP’s Environment Committee and driving force behind inclusion of aviation in EU ETS, believes there are “too many ifs and buts” in the ICAO resolution and “unfortunately” no guarantee the sys-tem will be introduced in 2020. “In my estimation, the European Parliament will not agree that until 2020 we only cover intra-European fights,” he says. “The inclusion of all fights taking of and landing in Europe, for the part that they travel in European airspace, is in-dispensable. This is a matter of fairness to European airlines, their competitive situation and the environment.”

The EP endorsed the EC proposal to “stop the clock” on applying ETS to routes beyond Europe for a year to give ICAO time to devise a global solution. Until the end of this year, operators (re-gardless of nationality) must surrender emissions allowances only for fights be-tween European airports.

EU law does not allow suspending the emissions trading for international aviation until 2020. If a new legislative text is not agreed upon by April, legisla-tion as originally planned will come into force for intercontinental fights taking of and landing in Europe.

With commission and EP members facing reelection in May, few are eager to take on the challenges of EU ETS. c

AIR TRANSPORT


The ETS will “snap back” for international flights to and from Europe, unless legislation is changed.

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Strategic Priorities in a Sequestration EraEvaluate program performance — where money is being spent and best practices in tackling efficiency, cost, strategy, and supply chain issues and opportunities.

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8:30 a.m. Welcome

Greg Hamilton, President, Aviation Week

8:35 a.m. Strategy & Forecast

Every four years the Defense Department turns to industry, subject matter experts and its own leadership to develop an assessment of threats to national security and the structure needed to respond. In this session we’ll hear about some of the initial thinking and con-cerns that will play a role in developing the future defense posture.

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A year ago three of the industry’s leading analysts debated whether a sequester would occur and how it would affect the industry. It’s a year later. And they’re back to review what did happen and projec-tions for the coming 18 months.

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Aviation Week will provide its annual forecast, providing production values for the coming five years, as well as an analysis of forecast and government budget volatility.

Aviation Week

ligence Network

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No challenge has been greater for government contractors than dealing with budget uncertainties and the prospect of mas-sive changes to contracts and requirements for the future. Many companies “baked in” plans to deal with the worst-case scenarios, while those with more flexibility had alternative plans in place. In this session we’ll hear how organizations of varying size dealt with and still are dealing with critical budget changes and the impact to the enterprise value chain.

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Technologies and processes from small companies are the foundation of innovation in every industry. Aviation Week has identified some of the unique and emerging players that will play a role in the space and defense programs of the future.

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8:45 a.m. Program Performance

As NASA and DoD reset strategies and set new priorities, program leaders must be able to respond quickly in replanning and re-establishing relevance. This year’s Program Excellence evaluation identified some of the best, who are learning to change course and run faster.

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One of the industry’s leading experts will share perspectives about threats, requirements and priorities as we move toward the next era in American defense.

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As the F-35 Lightening moves into production and service and the Tanker takes off, what are the prospects for manned flight and what will be required for this next generation of strike, fight, and flight? In this session we’ll get an overview of manned flight priorities, and a program update from the F-35 Lightening team and a review of the U.S. Navy’s X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System demonstrator effort from Northrop Grumman.

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Of all the capabilities in the defense portfolio with the most disrup-tion in the past decade, rotorcraft/vertical lift claim the slot. In this session we’ll hear about the Joint Multi-Role demonstration program being undertaken by a joint venture sewn together by Boeing and Sikorsky.

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Cyber security isn’t a new division of your company; it’s a capability to be baked into every program, project and service. It’s one of many non-traditional threats under the microscope as industry works with defense and security leaders to define a roadmap to technologies and capabilities needed for the future.

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We celebrate exploration and pioneering spirit, as an industry and as a people. With the money and pressure placed on today’s space programs, what are the program issues and best bets for the future? We’ll look at status of current efforts, and at the priorities for the future.

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John Croft Washington

Bad Year

Airship errors marred

Goodyear’s safety tour

A highly experienced pilot of a Goodyear-branded airship that fell to the ground in fames in

Riechelsheim, Germany, in June 2011 appears to have been responsible in part for the errors that led to the fatal crash during a safety tour across Eu-rope, sponsored by the American tire company.

According to a fnal report on the ac-cident by German aviation safety agency BFU, the American Blimp Corp. A-60+ blimp was likely overloaded when the pilot departed Riechelsheim Airfield for a 2-hr. sightseeing fight on June 12 with three passengers. On the previous fight that day, the pilot experienced a tail strike that broke the wheel from the airship’s rudder. The blimp was also hav-ing troubles with a microphone button that was jamming, leading the pilot at one point to send text messages to his ground crew during the accident fight.

Goodyear had leased two airships—Spirit of Safety I and II—from Lightship Europe in March 2011 to visit 20 Euro-pean countries as part of a road safety awareness campaign. The company’s name has been synonymous with blimps since it acquired its frst airship in 1917.

Built in Oregon, the 128-ft.-long A60+ uses helium for lift and two Limbach L2000 EC1 internal combustion engines for thrust. The airship, which had been

registered in the U.K. since 2002, held 69 gal. of aviation gasoline in an alumi-num tank behind the fve-seat gondola. At the bottom of the tank were control-lable valves and hoses that route the fuel to each engine, and “gascolators,” small reservoirs that trap debris in the fuel and allow for samples to be taken to check for water or other contaminants.

The accident occurred on the third consecutive fight of the day for the acci-dent pilot, who had accumulated 12,330 hr. of airship time since 1985. Goodyear had been conducting the fights daily at Riechelsheim since June 8. The BFU did not mention whether fatigue may have played a role, but did note that the “responsible public prosecutor” ordered that no post-mortem examina-tions be conducted on the pilot. “Due to witnesses’ statements, health problems were very unlikely,” says the BFU.

A second pilot who performed the frst fve fights that day noted told inves-tigators that the airship’s lifting capacity was below optimum during his fights, and he estimated the lifting capability had been further reduced by the lower-ing Sun angle in the late afternoon.

For the accident fight, the pilot de-parted with 475 lb. of ballast in a com-partment that can only be accessed when the airship is on the ground. The BFU says he was aware of the loading conditions, and on the return to the airfeld, texted his ground crew: “It’s a

heavy puppy, 15 plus. Doesn’t want to fy at 2,200 rpm. I guess no hooked ap-proaches today.” American Blimp and Lightship Europe, in an April 2013 let-ter to the BFU, estimated that the text message meant that the airship was overloaded by 15 ballast bags, or 375 lb. “This prompted the pilot to demand 2,200 rpm from the engines to hold the airship steady,” the companies stated.

The lack of buoyancy combined with still air at the airfeld made for what the BFU describes as an “extremely difcult landing situation” for the pilot.

The three passengers described ini-

tial contact as “very hard.” All three stated that after the airship had come to a complete stop, the pilot had said it was an accident.

The BFU says it is “highly likely” that the airship’s single landing gear wheels were shoved rearward at touchdown, allowing the strut to hit the ground and causing “an immense backward efective force” that then fractured the landing gear and led to a gascolator being dam-aged. Fuel then drained from the gasco-lator onto electrical components in the aft portion of the gondola, including fuel pumps and servo values, which likely caused an arc that set the fuel on fre.

The passengers “made the pilot aware of the increasing fuel smell and reported fre and heat development in the aft part of the gondola,” says the BFU. “They disembarked from the airship gondola. According to their statements, the pilot supported them to do so.”

Lightened by about 550 lb. when the three passengers jumped out, the air-ship lifted of again with the pilot on-board before the ground crew could reach the scene and grab the mooring line from its nose.

“The burning airship continued to ascend again up to about 220 feet and thereby drifted slowly to the east,” states the BFU. “Deformation of the envelope began with the increasing fre. Later it caved in . . . and the burn-ing airship crashed to the ground. It burnt out completely and only the pi-lot’s body could be recovered.”

American Blimp and Lightship Eu-rope say the fuel leak could have been avoided if the pilot had closed the valve after the hard landing, as recommended in the operating manual. c

German investigators say pilot error contributed to the crash of an A-6+ airship during a Goodyear safety tour.

German BPU


Cathy Buyck Brussels

Struggle Anew Alitalia must fnd fresh funds

to remain afoat

Less than fve years after it was rescued from bankruptcy and bought by a group of private investors for €1 billion ($1.35 billion) Alitalia is on the ropes again. A merger

with Air France-KLM is one possible scenario to save the Italian airline, but the Franco-Dutch group is in restructur-ing mode itself and Italian patriotism might resist the idea of foreign operator taking control of its cherished fag carrier.

The struggling Italian group needs at least €455 million in extra funding from shareholders and creditors to fend of bankruptcy and return to proftability under a new three-year turnaround plan announced in July by CEO Gabriele Del Torchio.

Del Torchio, who was appointed in April and is Alitalia’s third CEO in as many years, hired the boutique investment bank Leonardo & Co. to help tackle a liquidity crisis and ne-gotiate a much-needed €300 million line of credit. In recent weeks, numerous high-level government ofcials, including Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, have been involved in talks to broker a solution, possibly a government-backed bridge loan, and avoid default.

The Alitalia board of directors also has called an extraor-dinary general meeting (EGM) for Oct. 14 to request share-holders to contribute €100 million in additional funding. This appears to be unlikely to happen because judicial authorities have frozen the assets of one shareholder (for an unrelated matter), while at least one other is in bankruptcy protection proceedings. Stockholders were requested to supply a €150 million emergency loan last February—a request that gar-nered only €95 million of the amount needed. Now, investors will be invited at the EGM to complete the signing of this previous bond, bringing the total equity call to €205 million.

Air France-KLM, which is Alitalia’s largest shareholder with a 25% stake, took part in the February convertible bond, proportionate to its shareholding, but it is between a rock and a hard place as far as the additional funds are concerned. “The position of Air France-KLM does not allow us to spend

lavishly,” Chairman and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said in an interview with French daily Les Echos.

Air France is the most leveraged of Europe’s big network carriers, with a net debt of €5.3 billion as of June 30. On Oct. 4 it outlined additional measures to its Transform 2015 restructuring plan to improve results in medium-haul and cargo businesses. A new voluntary departure plan for about 2,900 employees will be implemented in 2014 at Air France. Air France-KLM reported a net loss of €793 million for the frst half of 2013.

Abandoning Alitalia and its grip on Europe’s fourth-largest air travel market, however, diverges with Air France-KLM’s long-term goal of further consolidation. It had advocated a Franco-Dutch-Italian tripartite group before Alitalia’s bankruptcy in 2008, and de Juniac recognizes that “Alitalia strengthens our commercial footprint pretty much every-where. There are already many synergies.”

Another option—increasing its shareholding to make it a controlling stake—presents a diferent set of problems: Ali-talia’s inability to turn a proft does not make it an attractive investment. This might be less of an issue for Etihad Airways or some Chinese interests, which have been named as possi-ble suitors, but Air France-KLM cannot aford to buy a white elephant. The Italian airline group—which comprises Alita-lia mainline, Alitalia Express, Alitalia Cityliner and low-cost carrier Air One—has not reported profts since its relaunch. It lost a cumulative €843 million in 2009-12, and its net loss widened to €294 million in the frst six months from €201 million in the year-ago period. The operating loss deepened 29% year-over-year to €198 million, and total revenue fell 4%, to €1.62 billion, for the frst half of this year, in line with the contraction of passenger numbers to 10.7 million. Its net debt was €946 million at the end of June and, more worrisome, available liquidity—including unused credit lines—stood at just €128 million.

The Italian government has indicated it would be agree-able to Air France-KLM doubling its shareholding,, but it also wants commitments that the Alitalia brand will be retained, along with the connectivity and use of Rome’s Fiumicino air-port as a hub, especially for long-haul fights. While a multi-brand, multi-hub strategy is part of Air France’s merger model, de Juniac has been emphatic about having a free hand to restructure the airline. “Our conditions for helping Alitalia are very strict. If conditions are right, I’m ready to move on. If they are not met, we will not go further.” c

AIR TRANSPORT


Alitalia has not turned a proft since it was relaunched under private ownership in 2009.

Nigel HowartH/aw&St



John Croft Washington

Uncool VisionRockwell Collins develops camera

to complete vision suite

Avionics and head-up guidance system provider Rockwell Collins is developing a passive, uncooled multi-spectral vision aid that will see “frst light” by

early November, marking a key benchmark in the company’s bid to become an end-to-end enhanced fight vision system (EFVS) provider.

Though primarily used by high-end business aviation and cargo airline FedEx, enhanced fight vision systems are poised to enter the mainstream airline market as a result of a new FAA rulemaking. Competition among EFVS providers is expected to increase, driven in part by the FAA action and China’s declaration last year that it will equip its entire airline feet with the technology by 2025.

With a certifed EFVS, including a head-up display with navigation guid-ance and video from a forward-looking imaging sensor, pilots on a precision-instrument approach, which normally has 200 ft. minimums, can use the sen-sor in lieu of natural vision to descend as low as 100 ft. above the runway

threshold. At 100 ft., the pilot must vi-sually discern the runway lights or oth-er identifers to continue the approach.

The FAA is proposing that pilots of EFVS-equipped aircraft with the prop-er training and currency be allowed to continue descending and landing using the EFVS, boosting airport capacity. The proposed rules, published in June, would also give airlines relief from the so-called approach ban, which prevents aircraft from starting an instrument approach if the reported cloud ceiling and visibility at the airport is be-low minimums for it.

The revelation of Rockwell Collins’s new sensor was not surprising from a strategic standpoint, given the FAA rule-making and China’s EFVS goal. What was unexpected was the decision to build an uncooled multispectral sensor as the core of the new EVS-3000, diverging from industry norms of using more expensive cooled sensors for systems certifed for lower landing minimums. The new sensor is being developed at the company’s Portland, Ore., facility where it has built and delivered more than 5,000 head-up guidance systems, a portion of which are incorporated into EFVS systems with Elbit-Kollsman or Esterline CMC cooled infrared cameras.

Though the FAA notes that the imaging cameras may be based on forward-looking infrared, millimeter wave radiom-etry, millimeter wave radar or low-level light intensifcation, all certifed systems to date are in practice using cooled

sensors operating in a portion of the short- and mid-wave infrared spectrum (1.2-5 micron range). That spectrum was selected so that the sensor would pick up the refected in-frared (IR) and thermal energy in the short- and midwave infrared spectrum radiating from incandescent runway and approach lights, giving pilots the cues they would normally see through the windscreen. The sensor is optimized to cover four types of airport lighting and is cooled to boost its ability to register very slight (0.1 deg.) temperature dif-ferences in a scene.

The future of those incandescent lights is murky, as airports begin transitioning to LED lights to cut electricity usage. The FAA is studying possible alternatives for runway approach lights, including LED lights augmented with IR emitters. For operators who have equipped with EFVS, including FedEx, the possibility of the FAA switching to LED lights is spawning fears of EFVS becoming “million-dollar paperweights.”

Rockwell Collins says its EVS-3000 will operate “across a broader range” of the infrared spectrum, making it “the frst EVS to detect the full spectrum of runway lighting, including new LED systems being installed by airports worldwide.”

The company did not divulge details of the design, but

high-level statements suggest a multisensor suite that will cover a portion of the visual spectrum (0.5-0.7 microns) to pick up LED lights, as well as a portion of the short-wave (0.7-3 microns), midwave (3-5 microns) and possibly long-wave (8-12 microns) spectrum to capture airport lighting and the environment.

Bob Yerex, vice president of sales for Astronics Max-Viz, a provider of “not for credit” uncooled enhanced vision systems for general and business aviation, sees the biggest challenge coming from the midwave sensor. He says Max-Viz has looked at uncooled midwave sensors in the past, but has not yet found any that meet its performance or reliability expecta-tions.

Jeff Standerski, Rockwell Collins’s vice president and general manager of business and regional systems, explains that the company has developed algorithms to maximize the signal versus noise for the uncooled sensors to get the performance needed. “We believe the real magic is in the software,” he says. c

AVIONICS

Rockwell Collins is developing a multispectral sensor for its heads-

up guidance systems.

Rockwell collins



Amy Butler and Jen DiMascio Washington

Ship-KillersRaytheon angling to reignite U.S. Navy

interest in Tactical Tomahawk upgrade

The U.S. Navy is assessing wheth-er to conduct a competition for a new anti-ship missile, which is

needed in the coming years as a re-sponse to the latest sophisticated Chi-nese DF-21 ship-killing ballistic missile and to keep Beijing’s carriers at bay.

But, mixed messages from the ser-vice regarding the threat have prompt-ed lawmakers to question just how ur-gent the need is and how much money is required within what timeframe.

Despite deep and long-standing trade ties between Beijing and Wash-ington, China is developing potentially the most formidable threat to U.S. na-val superiority in the Pacifc. Increas-ingly, the Pentagon’s war plans include scenarios involving China or that call for U.S. ships to fend of Chinese hard-ware sold to adversaries.

This DF-21 ballistic missile is be-lieved to be capable of forcing U.S. ships to stand off farther than pre-viously thought in such an engage-ment; thus the Navy is looking for a long-range option for its own anti-ship weapons in order to put land- and sea-based targets at risk from the longer distances. Also needed is a missile that can operate without GPS guidance, as such scenarios assume a complex jam-ming environment.

Though there is consensus on the threat, there is confusion over the tim-ing. The Navy has been working with two diferent felding dates, 2018 and 2024, which has lawmakers perturbed. Senate authorizers cut $100 million of the $136 million request because the “urgency of the [requirement] is now in doubt,” their fscal year 2014 report states. House authorizers fully funded the request, noting a change in pro-curement strategy.

The Navy, however, declined to ex-plain or defne its strategy and denied an interview request. Service ofcials were directed to provide a procure-ment plan to explain the discrepancy to Congress by Oct. 1, but a Navy spokeswoman says the efort remains under review.

An Ofensive Anti-Surface Warfare

(OASuW) weapon is needed “to ensure freedom of maneuver and to maintain open sea lines of communication in all environments well into the 21st cen-tury,” the Navy said in the statement for Aviation Week.

Industry sources suggest the 2018 date is associated with an older plan to feld an upgraded Tomahawk, while the 2024 date refers to a clean-sheet design.

To contractors, the confusion repre-sents an opportunity.

Manufacturers are scrambling to of-fer options in hopes of procuring a spot in this arena. Work on the plan is likely to slip further because civilian contrac-tors and acquisition ofcials have been placed on furlough, thanks to the gov-ernment shutdown that began Oct. 1.

An abrupt decision earlier this year

for the Navy to forgo an upgrade to its most recent Raytheon Tomahawk ship-launched cruise missile, the Block IV, has the manufacturer concerned. Raytheon executives fear the Pentagon will sole-source the work to Lockheed Martin, which holds a $373 million contract with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to modify the company’s air-launched Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (Jassm) with a new seeker and to integrate it with the Navy’s MK41 ship-launched missile system. Lockheed Martin of-fcials are hoping progress with this weapon, the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (Lrasm), will convince the Navy to forgo plans for a competition.

Both companies argue that their op-tions incorporate the latest in available technology while reflecting designs that ofer safe, proven readiness.

Jassm is a stealthy, air-launched cruise missile designed to travel 200 nm to a fxed target. Though the Air Force has been accepting delivery of Jassms and is funding a Jassm-ER (extended range), designed for 500-nm standof range, Lockheed of-fcials acknowledge work lies ahead to prepare it for use from the Mk41 Ver-tical Launch System (VLS) on Navy ships. But, they say they can deliver Lrasm for “well under $2 million” per unit, according to Frank St. John, vice president of tactical missiles for Lock-heed Martin. Cost was previously an issue for Jassm, as technical problems forced its price upward to about $1 million per missile, far exceeding the planned unit cost.

That experience, however, gives the company confdence in their estimates for Lrasm, St. John says. The missile design is based on and shares 85% common parts with the Jassm-ER, he notes. Though Darpa’s demonstration calls for only 200 mi. of fight to wring out the sensor and guidance section, the system would be capable of the full Jassm-ER range.

Lockheed won the Darpa contract in 2009 to develop Lrasm, beating out other options, including one from Lockheed Martin that used a ballistic trajectory and designs submitted by Raytheon and Boeing. The outcome of the competition reinforced the notion that the lowest-risk approach for a new anti-ship missile would be to use a low-flying, stealthy platform rather than one operating at high speed through high altitudes.

DEFENSE

Lockheed Martin’s Lrasm must still be certifed for U.S. Navy vessels through a series of tests.

Lo

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Ma

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“There is no Dircm on fast-jets, but

. . . the requirement is coming

quickly, and the frst opportunity

will be on the F-35”


Fast-Jet ShieldHigh-performance combat aircraft are the next

target for Northrop Grumman’s laser jammer

After the Soviet invasion of Af-ghanistan, shoulder-fred sur-face-to-air missiles turned the

tables on Russia’s helicopter gunships and helped end the occupation. In the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, missile jammers have largely neutralized the threat. But still only a fraction of the

aircraft that could find themselves in combat zones is protected by di-rectional infrared countermeasures (Dircm) systems.

A major reason is size. Dircms started out big and have shrunk with time, but are only now becoming small enough to be carried by most military helicopters. And the next step is to make them even smaller—and power-ful enough—to defend fast-jet combat aircraft against not only ground-to-air, but also air-to-air missiles.

Anticipating a requirement to pro-tect the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, leading Dircm manu-facturer Northrop Grumman has be-gun company-funded development of a directed infrared countermeasures system that can ft within a limited vol-ume and preserve the aircraft’s stealth

characteristics, but be more powerful than ex-isting Dircms.

The traditional de-fense against heat-seeking missiles—still used on most helicop-ters and transports and all fighters—is to dispense decoy fares.

But in the late 1980s and early 1990s, third-generation heat-seeking mis-siles emerged that could discrimi-nate flares. This led to development of Dircm, which directs a modulated infrared signal into the missile seeker to confuse its guidance.

Dircm reset the battleground and gave defenders a new ability to adapt to evolving threats. “Dircm can over-come seeker technology as it evolves,” says Jeff Palombo, Northrop senior vice president and general manager for

During a recent test at White Sands Missile Range, N.M., funded by Lock-heed, its Lrasm design cleared the canister but did not ignite under its own power. That test is forthcoming and will be funded by the government; the overall project is jointly funded by Darpa and the Ofce of Naval Re-search. They are planning to conduct a trial by the end of fscal 2014 to loft out of the VLS and prosecute actual targets. The company has funded $30 million of Lrasm’s development, mostly focused on that Sept. 4 test where a weight-representative test vehicle was launched from the VLS canister.

A Lrasm test vehicle was separately used in an Aug. 27 trial to hit a mov-ing shipping target, though it was not canister-launched, St. John says. After being dropped from a Boeing B-1B fy-ing at about 20,000 ft. and at Mach 0.8, the weapon cruised to the target area, autonomously located the ship and hit within a “few feet” of its target, he says. He declined to address whether coun-termeasures, such as GPS jamming, were used during the demonstration. But, it was “operationally representa-tive” and “a very difcult test.”

Alternatives to Lrasm for the OASuW mission are not suitable, St. John says. “There is a range of bad op-tions” that includes systems that are very “long in the tooth.”

Raytheon officials bristle at the notion that an upgraded Tomahawk draws on old technology. “If you want to talk about long in the tooth, Jassm is older than Tomahawk Block IV,” says Chris Daily, deputy Tomahawk pro-gram manager for Raytheon, adding that the frst production contract for the weapon was in 2004. Jassm pro-duction started in 2001; production of the ER variant followed in 2012.

Raytheon is self-funding continued work on the TacTom-plus, an upgrade to the Block IV’s so-called Tactical Tomahawk that would include an an-ti-radiation homing seeker in addition to an imaging infrared sensor and en-hancements to operate in an complex jamming environment.

Until the Pentagon’s reversal on Tomahawk early this year, Raytheon was told the upgraded Block IV would be an interim solution until an objec-tive OASuW weapon could be pro-cured. The company was on a path to feld the upgrade in 2017, Daily says, and it would make use of the 1,000-nm range of the Block IV version.

“Tomahawk is already integrated on ships. To develop and integrate an-other missile to launch out of a VLS is probably well in excess of $1 billion,” Daily says.

“Why would you take a system de-signed to be air-launched and try to modify it and integrate it into a ship or a sub?” Daily asks rhetorically. “You would be taking a system and adding Tomahawk-like capabilities to it [and] you would have a missile that is no more capable and has less than half the range of Tomahawk.”

Raytheon ofcials have put the anti-radiation sensor through its paces in an “open air” test, meaning outside of the laboratory, against realistic threat emitters, Daily says. The company is planning a similar test, perhaps as

soon as this month, that will feature a captive-carry, production-represen-tative sensor operating against threat emitters.

Daily says up to $250 million would be needed to be able to feld the new seeker that could be used for moving-ship targets in 2017. He adds that a new anti-jam GPS receiver is already felded on the weapon.

The per-unit Tomahawk Block IV cost was under $1 million based on the latest contract, Daily says. Roughly 35 are being produced per month.

Ofcials have not disclosed whether Jassm has been fred in a confict. Tom-ahawk Block IV, however, has been used with success against at least one target during the Libya conflict, ac-cording to program sources. c


land and self-protection systems. “An aircraft does not run out of Dircm, as it does fares. And Dircm is not visible.”

After an initial generation of lamp-based Dircms, introduced in 1999, Northrop felded the frst laser-based systems in 2003. The company de-livered around 1,000 of these “small laser-transmitter assembly” systems before switching to the still smaller Guardian laser transmitter. Since 2007, more than 2,000 Guardian sys-tems have been delivered. “There has not been an event on any aircraft equipped with a Northrop Grum-man Dircm,” Palombo says. “That is over 800 aircraft.”

New applications in the pipeline for the company’s laser jammers include the Boeing P-8A and KC-46A and Sikorsky CH-53K in the U.S., and AgustaWestland AW101 and Airbus Military A400M in Eu-rope, plus a range of head-of-state aircraft. The company developed a podded Dircm for commercial aircraft, but while an expected requirement to protect U.S. Civil Reserve Air Fleet aircraft fying into combat zones did not emerge, the Air National Guard is install-ing the Guardian pod on some Boeing KC-135 tankers.

Northrop is now developing its next generation of laser jam-mers under the U.S. Army’s Com-mon Infrared Countermeasures (Circm) program. In competition against BAE Systems, the com-pany is in the technology develop-ment phase, having delivered sys-tems for live-fre testing by the Army. A request for proposals for the engineer-ing and manufacturing development program is expected early in 2014.

Circm is required to weigh 85 lb. or less, so it can be carried by heli-copters as small as the Army’s Bell OH-58D/F Kiowa Warrior armed scout. Northrop’s system is its frst to use a quantum cascade laser (QCL), a type of semiconductor laser that of-fers greater reliability and scalability. While Circm will expand the address-able market for directional infrared countermeasures, the U.S. closely controls export of the technology, and competitors are emerging on the inter-national market.

These include Europe’s Selex ES, which supplies Northrop with the pointer/tracker systems, or jam heads, for both its large-aircraft Dircm and its

Circm design. Developed as a private venture, Selex’s Miysis Dircm is aimed at smaller aircraft, helicopters and un-manned aircraft, and competes with the Mini-Music system developed by Elbit—a compact version of the Music fber-laser system used on Israeli com-mercial aircraft.

Beyond Circm, Northrop sees the requirement to protect high-perfor-mance combat aircraft from infrared missiles. “There is no Dircm on fast jets today, but we believe the require-ment is there, and coming quickly, and

that the frst opportunity will be on the F-35,” says Palombo.

Protecting a fast-moving fghter is “much diferent” than jamming mis-siles launched at slow-fying helicop-ters and transports. “For the first time, the requirements include air-to-air missiles, 9g maneuvers and small volumes. Heat dissipation will require liquid cooling,” he notes.

Northrop plans to begin testing a company-funded prototype of the Threat Nullification Defensive Re-source (ThNDR) system in its inte-gration laboratory by year-end. The timing for development of a laser mis-sile jammer to equip the F-35 “is still in question,” Palombo says, “but we want

to get out in front of the requirement.”A Dircm is not part of the require-

ment for the initial, Block 3-standard F-35 now in development. But draft requirements already exist and, ac-cording to Northrop, a laser jammer is now expected to be part of the Block 5 update. This is scheduled for early in the 2020s.

The system must meet low-observ-ability (LO) requirements and be pack-aged to ft in a confned space inside the F-35. But it will have a smaller, more-powerful laser than current

Dircm systems and require liquid cooling, says Palombo.

The ThNDR, which includes the laser, beam-steering and LO win-dow, is packaged to ft inside vol-ume available alongside sensors for the F-35’s distributed aperture system (DAS). There would be two jam heads, one on top and one underneath the aircraft to provide spherical coverage with minimal impact on the outer mold line.

The Northrop-developed DAS, which has six infrared sensors positioned to provide a 360-deg. view around the aircraft, would provide missile warning—detect-ing and declaring incoming threats and cueing the fne-tracking jam head to track the incoming mis-sile and jam its seeker. Tests in the system-integration lab will look at challenges such as the high-speed hand off of targets between the upper and lower pointer/trackers as the F-35 rolls at rates of up to 17 deg./sec., he says.

Northrop is evaluating lasers from three suppliers, and is looking at QCL technology. The laser will be more powerful than in previous Dircms, to counter a wider range of air- and ground-launched threats. Working with the U.S. government, Northrop is developing ways to defeat air-to-air missiles. This involves understanding missile-seeker and tracking charac-teristics and their jamming suscepti-bilities, testing real missile seekers in fly-out engagement simulations and developing digital models.

Beyond the stealthy F-35, and Lock-heed Martin F-22, Northrop sees re-quirements for a podded version of the fast-jet Dircm to protect non-stealthy combat aircraft such as the Boeing F-15 and Lockheed F-16. “It can be put in a self-contained pod, and it can be air-cooled,” Palombo says. c


DEFENSE

The ThNDR design packages the low-observable pointer/tracker and laser into a single, compact unit.

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Enabling ElectricEurope’s aerospace giant sees a path to hybrid-

electric propulsion for commercial aircraft

Manufacturers and researchers appear to be in agreement: The way to develop electric

propulsion for aircraft is to start small. But with the pace at which technology is developing, electric-powered aircraft may not stay small very long.

In September 2010, EADS Innova-tion Works (IW) and Aero Compos-ites Saintonge (ACS) flew a single-seat, 375-lb. Cri-Cri modified with four electric motors in place of its two 9-hp piston engines. By the end of this year, EADS IW and ACS plan to fly the E-Fan, a two-seat training aircraft purpose-designed around electric-powered ducted propellers.

The Cri-Cri and E-Fan are battery-powered, but in June 2011 EADS teamed with Siemens and Diamond Aircraft to fly the DA36 E-Star, an HK36 Super Dimona motor glider modifed to test a hybrid-electric drive system. A year later, in June 2012, the team few the improved E-Star 2 with an 80-kw (107-hp) serial-hybrid drive system based on a small Wankel en-gine, generator and batteries.

The E-Fan and E-Star are among “E-aircraft” research projects under way at EADS as it evaluates differ-ent approaches to reducing aviation carbon-dioxide emissions. Another is the E-Thrust concept study with Rolls-Royce into a distributed propul-sion system in which a turbine engine powers six electrically driven fans inte-

grated into the wings of a commercial airliner to reduce weight and drag.

EADS and Siemens also have part-nered with the Technical University of Munich to establish the PowerLab at the nearby Ludwig Boelkow Campus in Otto brun. This four-year project is dedicated to developing and test-ing lightweight, high-efficiency gen-erators and motors in the 300-600-kw class. “This is a good level at which to enter real aviation,” says Peter Jank-ers, Power Lab project head. A follow-on demonstrator aircraft could have from one 300-kw to four 600-kw mo-tors. “We could easily get to megawatt class,” he says.

Work on innovative propulsion sys-tems is part of EADS’s research to sup-port the environmental goals laid out in the European Commission’s Flightpath 2050 report, which was prepared by the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe. This sets a target, by 2050, of reducing emissions of CO2 by 75%, nitrogen oxides by 90% and noise by 65% compared with levels in the year 2000.

The Cri-Cri, the frst electric aero-batic aircraft, is tiny, but EADS be-lieves the tandem-seat E-Fan could be matured and marketed as a practical general-aviation trainer. The electrical-ly driven shrouded propellers provide a total static thrust of about 340 lb., the energy provided by two battery packs in the wings. The centrally mounted

mainwheel is electrically driven also, for taxiing without using engines and to boost acceleration on takeof.

The E-Star 2 also is a step closer to a marketable product. Its serial-hybrid drivetrain has a lighter, more compact electric motor from Siemens, a generator driven by a small Wankel from Austro Engine and EADS IW-prepared battery packs in the wings. Aircraft empty weight is reduced by about 100 kg (220 lb.). The motor weighs 13 kg including gearbox and

control electronics, and runs off the generator, producing a continuous 65 kw. This is boosted by the batter-ies to 80 kw for takeof and climb. The combustion engine runs at a constant 30 kw to generate power and recharge the batteries. Siemens believes series hybrid power will make its way soon into small aircraft and is scalable to commercial aircraft with 50-100 seats, reducing emissions 25%.

The PowerLab project, meanwhile, is targeting development of electric gen-erators and motors with power densi-ties of 10 kw per kilogram—twice that of the motor in the E-Star 2. Such a density would make a megawatt-class power system “quite reasonable to fy, and is not too far away,” says Jankers. Begun this summer, the PowerLab project is looking at how to generate, convert, distribute, buffer and store electrical power as well as design safe-ty into the system and integrate two distinct types of electrical machine: fast-running, high-efficiency genera-tors and low-rpm, high-torque motors.

The project will involve detail design studies and laboratory demonstrations of electrical propulsion, with the goal of “building a foundation for electric fight,” Jankers says, by creating a com-munity centered on the Boelkow cam-pus with expertise in aircraft hybrid propulsion. Although the technology is targeted at hybrid power, PowerLab is focused on the electric part, particu-larly how to use and manage battery cells and electrical machines “in a more intelligent way,” and understand their limits and how to protect the system.

“We need to understand the tech-nology, and see where the gaps are,” he says. c

PROPULSION

The tandem-seat E-Fan has an electrically powered shrouded propeller and mainwheel for taxiing and takeof.

EADS



Tony Osborne London

Changing FortunesCivil certifcation could breathe new life

into AgustaWestland’s AW101

Despite a series of public setbacks in recent years, Agus-taWestland is embarking on a new civil certifcation program for its AW101, a medium/heavy helicopter

that has experienced more than its fair share of strife since its development in the 1980s.

The helicopter remains at the center of a scandal in India over that country’s choice of VIP helicopter, and it was im-mersed in Canadian politicking as it was being developed. Its selection to replace Sea Kings in the antisubmarine-warfare role became a key election topic that contributed to the downfall of Canada’s frst female prime minister. The AW101 also lost its bid to become the frst foreign-built U.S. presidential transport, known as Marine One.

The three-engine helicopter, developed as the Anglo-Ital-ian EH101, was launched with both military and civil opera-tors in mind 30 years ago. Most of the interest came from the military side, however. The EH101 achieved civil certifcation in 1994, but only one civil version was ever sold—to the Tokyo Metropolitan Police.

Now marketed as the International AW101, its latest vari-ants have been signifcantly updated, with modern avionics and a new crash-worthy airframe structure, much of which was developed for the initial U.S. V-XX (Marine One) competition.

“We are looking very seriously at recertification of the AW101,” says Roberto Garavaglia, head of strategy at Agus-taWestland. “We have said that the AW101 was perhaps ahead of its time, but we think that time is now coming, and there is now huge potential in the oil and gas market as well as for long-range search-and-rescue missions.”

There is also interest from VIP and head-of-state custom-ers, which have accounted for sales of 18 helicopters, includ-ing 12 from India, where the program is the subject of legal proceedings as it is in Italy. Work on the Indian rotorcraft has been halted, but three are already in operation there. Another two have been purchased by Turkmenistan, and the company is completing pairs of VIP-confgured helicopters for both Al-geria and Saudi Arabia.

AgustaWestland is using one of the helos initially destined

for India to demonstrate a representative VIP interior. It was showcased at the MAKS air show in Moscow in August, where it attracted attention from government ofcials and potential private buyers.

AgustaWestland is also bullish about the AW101’s prospects in a contest with Eurocopter’s EC725 to replace Norway’s ag-ing Sea Kings. The Norwegian justice ministry downselected the AW101 and EC725 in July for the country’s all-weather search-and-rescue helicopter competition. Norway plans to acquire up to 16 new rotorcraft, with options for another six, and a decision is expected by year-end. AW101s are used in the long-range search-and-rescue role by Canada, Denmark and Portugal, and AgustaWestland ofcials point to Norway’s requirement for its helos to be capable of picking up casual-ties more than 300 nm ofshore and accommodating medical treatment in the rear cabin as it returns to base.

The same features that make the rotorcraft good for search-and-rescue put it in good stead for oil and gas work, particularly as energy companies explore further ofshore. AgustaWestland says the AW101 could fll a niche by trans-porting as many as 19 passengers to oil and gas platforms 300-350 nm ofshore—ranges that competitors could struggle to achieve without reducing passenger numbers.

The company has been trying to reduce the AW101’s opera-tional costs, too. The U.K. Defense Ministry, the largest opera-tor of the type, is replacing the teetering tail-rotor system on its EH101 Merlins with AgustaWestland’s articulated tail rotor developed for the International AW101. The system has 10% of the maintenance burden of its predecessor and delivers greater power margins, the company says.

Meanwhile, AgustaWestland is working to fll new military orders. The frst of several AW101s confgured for combat search-and-rescue for the Italian air force is expected to make its frst fight in the coming months. The company is also pay-ing close attention to Canada, which is tackling issues with the delivery of the CH-148 Cyclone helicopters, based on the Sikor-sky S-92. Canadian ofcials have reportedly visited Culdrose, England, where the British feet of naval AW101s is based, and AgustaWestland says it is “ready to respond” with the AW101, if the Canadians look for an alternative to the Cyclone. c

ROTORCRAFT

Canada uses its EH101/AW101s for long-range

search-and-rescue operations, but the type could soon fnd applica-

tion on other missions.

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Cessna and Embraer business jets should soon begin rolling out of

Chinese factories, but how many of them will Chinese buyers want?

While China’s business aviation market has grown powerfully since

2008, its preference for large aircraft—larger than Cessna’s—shows no signs

of changing. Recent sales trends seem stronger for Embraer, which until last

year had almost none of its aircraft in China.

Bradley Perrett Beijing and Graham Warwick Washington

Local SupplyChina is buying into business-aircraft production,

but buyers are favoring imports

Business AviAtion

And in business aviation, for once, buyer preference is an almost com-pletely dominant factor in Chinese air-craft demand. China’s industry and its Western partners are almost always assured of local orders for commercial airliners assembled or partly built in China; helicopter manufacturing, too, can enjoy the support of government buyers. But neither the government nor its companies are buying many business jets, and the state is not di-recting the choices of private buyers, just as it would not tell them which luxury cars to choose. And they are mainly choosing Gulfstreams.

Cessna has been working with Avic on projects to build at least three of its aircraft types in China: the mid-size Citation Sovereign with Avic’s fghter

subsidiary AAT in Chengdu; and the super-light Citation XLS+ in Zhuhai and Caravan utility turboprop in Shi-jiazhuang, both in factories of Caiga, Avic’s general-aviation business. The Citation Latitude, not due to fy until 2014, has been a later prospect for pro-duction in Chengdu.

The frst Chinese Caravan was due to be completed by the third quarter, but by July, this had slipped to year-end. At that time, XLS+ deliveries from the Zhuhai plant were due to begin in 2014, having slipped from this year. For the Sovereign, Cessna was still in talks with AAT and the Chengdu city government in April (AW&ST April 22, p. 24). Production volume targets have not been disclosed.

Aircraft of XLS+ and Sovereign size

are not the focus of demand in China, however, and there are few signs of that changing. “Over the last 3-4 years, [mainland China] market shares of Gulfstream and Bombardier have not changed significantly year to year,” says Hong Kong business aviation con-sultancy Asia Sky Group, reviewing figures up to 2012. “What is happen-ing, given the current market trends, is [Dassault] Falcon and Embraer are taking market share from Cessna and Hawker [Beechcraft].”

Embraer is setting up an assembly line for business jets in partnership with Avic at Harbin. A factory that formerly assembled ERJ 145 regional jets has been reequipped at apparently little expense for the closely related Legacy 650 super mid-size jet. The lat-

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to read our skeptical assessment of the Chinese business aviation market in 2007, or go to

AviationWeek.com/chinabizav

http://AviationWeek.com/chinabizav



Very-Light Light Super-Light Mid-Size Super-

Mid-Size

Large Super-Large Ultra-Long-

Range

Large, Super-Large, Ultra-Long-Range and

Airliner Segments Added Total of 87 Aircraft in 2012

or 91% of Growth

Airliner

Year-End 2012

Year-End 2011

Chinese Business Aircraft Fleet

2011–12 Growth per Segment

Source: Asian Sky Group

1 1

18 1914 16

28 28 3036

44

64

39

53

13

31

53

88

Cessna is negotiating to assemble the mid-size Citation Sovereign in Chengdu.

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ter is closer to current Chinese tastes for large aircraft. The frst 650 from Harbin is due for delivery by year-end, as planned, says Embraer.

The Brazilian manufacturer had a negligible business aviation presence in the Chinese market until last year. By the end of 2012, the business-jet feet in China, including Hong Kong, had eight Embraer aircraft, up from just one a year earlier, and compared with a Cessna fleet unchanged at 33 aircraft. Notably, fve of the Embraers that arrived last year were Legacy 650s and one was an almost-identi-cal Legacy 600. Moreover, Embraer booked orders for 28 aircraft in 2012, suggesting its feet share will rise.

In deliveries, as always, the real ac-tion last year was at the heavy-metal

end of the market, with fleets grow-ing by 36 aircraft for Gulfstream, 25 for Bombardier and nine for Dassault. Airbus and Boeing corporate airliners dominated the other 26 net additions.

China’s links with Western general- and business-aviation manufacturers trace back to the 1970s, when Beijing purchased French helicopters for its military. This led to local manufacture of the Aerospatiale SA321 Super Fre-lon as the Changhe Z-8 and the AS365 Dauphin as the Harbin Z-9. Civil ver-sions of these—the 14.5-ton AC313 and 4.5-ton AC312, respectively—now form the core of Avicopter’s commercial lineup. This early link lead to China taking a 24% share in developing Euro-copter’s 1.5-ton EC120, built by Harbin since 2004 as the HC-120.

In 2005, agreement was reached to co-develop the Eurocopter EC175 and Avicopter AC532 (Z-15) medium helicopters, with Harbin supplying airframes for the 8.3-ton EC175. Other civil helicopter deals followed, includ-ing AgustaWestland in 2005 estab-lishing a joint venture with Changhe to assemble the 3.2-ton AW109 as the CA109. In 2007, Sikorsky signed a deal with Changhe to supply S-76C airframes, which has now transitioned to the supply of S-76D airframes begin-ning in 2016. In each case, the motiva-tion was access to China’s market and low labor costs.

Helicopters also led to China’s frst acquisitions. In 2007, industrialist Cheng Shenzong struck a deal to build the Brantly B2B light helicopter in Qin-


Business AviAtion

gdao, and later develop the obsolete de-sign into China’s largest unmanned he-licopter, the V750, built in Weifang and frst fown in 2011. In 2012, in another U.S. acquisition, Enstrom Helicopters was purchased by Chongqing Helicop-ter Investment.

What has become a major push by Chinese industry into the general-aviation (GA) market began when, in 2007, Cessna announced that, to re-duce costs, its Skycatcher light-sport aircraft would be produced by Avic company Shenyang Aircraft. The deci-sion sparked controversy, which did not subside when, in 2010, Caiga agreed to buy bankrupt U.S kitplane maker Epic Aircraft. The bankruptcy judge blocked plans to relocate production to China.

Ulimately, Epic was sold to a Russian company, but Caiga acquired Epic’s de-signs for a family of single-turboprop, single- and twinjet aircraft, which now form the basis for its Primus and Star-light product lines. China’s frst indig-enously developed business aircraft, the all-composite Primus 150, is powered by an 850-shp. General Electric H85 tur-boprop. First fight is planned for this month; certifcation is eyed for 2015.

China’s buying spree did not end there. At the end of 2010, Avic compa-ny Technify Motor acquired U.S. piston aero-engine manufacturer Continental Motors from Teledyne. This July, Tech-nify acquired insolvent German aero-diesel manufacturer Thielert Engines, merging it with Continental and posi-tioning itself to supply both the tradi-tional gasoline-fueled GA market and growing international demand for light aircraft burning easier-to-fnd jet fuel.

In its biggest deal yet, in 2011, Caiga acquired U.S. light aircraft manufac-turer Cirrus. The Chinese owners have invested a lot, setting up assembly of SR20/22 piston singles in Zhuhai and, in the U.S., accelerating development of the Vision SF50 single-turbofan personal jet, which is expected to be certifed in 2015. Cirrus is to produce airframes for Icon Aircraft’s A5 light-sport amphibian and, in June, Icon announced a “privately held strategic investor in China . . . well established in the Chinese general aviation market” had taken a stake in the company.

Chinese industrialist Cheng, mean-while, did not stop at Brantly, and in 2009 acquired Superior Air, a then-bankrupt U.S. manufacturer of after-market parts for Continental and Ly-coming piston engines. His company,

Business and General Aviation –

China as an Investor and Manufacturer


AgustaWestland – Joint venture established with Changhe Aircraft

Industry in 2005 to assemble AW109 light-twin helicopter in Jingdezhen

(as CA109).

Brantly – Acquired by Qingdao Haili Helicopters in 2007; B2B light-piston

helicopter production moved to Qingdao; unmanned version developed.

Caiga – Designs acquired in 2010 from bankrupt U.S. kitplane-maker Epic

Air by Avic’s China Aviation Industry General Aircraft (Caiga) form the basis

of Primus turboprop and Starlight turbofan business aircraft.

Cessna – Skycatcher light-sport aircraft is built by AAT in Shenyang;

Caravan is to be assembled in Shijiazhuang under joint venture with Caiga;

negotiating with Caiga to assemble Citation XLS+ business jet in Zhuhai,

and with ATT to assemble Citation Sovereign in Chengdu.

Cirrus – U.S. light-aircraft manufacturer was acquired by Caiga in 2011;

Caiga South China Aircraft Industry assembles Cirrus SR20/22 in Zhuhai.

Continental/Theilert – Continental Motors was acquired from Teledyne

by Avic (Technify Motors) in 2010; Theilert Aircraft Engines was acquired by

Avic in July 2013 and merged with Continental.

Diamond – Shandong Bin Ao Aircraft Industries assembles DA40 TDI light-

twin for China and selected Asian countries.

Embraer – Harbin Embraer Aircraft Industry, a joint venture with Avic,

has begun assembly of Legacy 650 business jets in Harbin; frst delivery

end of 2013.

Enstrom – U.S. light-helicopter manufacturer was acquired by Chongqing

Helicopter Investment in December 2012.

Eurocopter – Co-development of the Eurocopter EC175 and Avicopter

AC532 medium-twin helicopters was launched in 2005. Harbin Aircraft In-

dustry supplies airframes for the EC175 and builds light EC120 as HC-120.

Flight Design – German light aircraft (CTLS and C4) to be produced in

China beginning in 2015 under a deal with Taiwan’s Aero Jones.

Icon – U.S. light-sport seaplane manufacturer’s June 2013 equity fnancing

round was led by a Chinese strategic private investor; airframes are to be

supplied by Caiga-owned Cirrus.

Pilatus – Agreement signed with Beijing Tian Xing Yu Science in July 2013

to assemble PC-6 utility and PC-12 business turboprops in Chongqing.

Sikorsky – Changhe Aircraft supplied S-76C helicopter airframes under

agreement signed in 2007; new deal signed in September 2013 to supply

S-76D airframes.

Superior Air Parts – U.S. piston-aeroengine aftermarket parts manufactur-

er was sold to Superior Aviation Beijing in 2008, and combined with Brantly

in 2011.

Yuneec – Jiangsu-based Yuneec International manufacturers of the e430

electric-powered light-sport aircraft marketed by U.S.-based subsidiary

GreenWing International.



Embraer’s frst Chinese-assembled super-mid-size Legacy 650 few at Harbin in August.

em

br

aer

Beijing Superior Aviation Technology, then initiated China’s boldest move yet, teaming with the Beijing municipal government in a bid to buy U.S. busi-ness and GA aircraft manufacturer Hawker Beechcraft out of bankruptcy. Hawker Beechcraft called of the nego-tiations in October 2012.

Although China’s biggest move to date to secure a share of the global business-aircraft market ended in failure, Western manufacturers have continued to pursue deals to build their products there. The latest is Switzerland’s Pilatus Aircraft, which is to assemble its PC-6 utility and PC-12 business turboprops in Chongqing. But Cessna and Embraer are the frst to persuade China to manufacture busi-ness jets, a sector of the market that is expected to grow most dramatically.

The volume of business flying in mainland China, measured by hours in the air, rose 61% in 2010-12, accord-ing to Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC ) fgures which, by cov-ering two years of operations, fatten out bumps to give a better indication of the trend. The number of movements rose 59%.

The CAAC seems fully supportive of business aviation. Shi Boli, director general of the regulator’s transporta-tion section, told an industry meeting earlier this year that, while the poten-tial for further growth was obvious, “we very clearly recognize that the indus-try is restricted by limited resources. Infrastructure is unsuitable, support services are lagging, specialist person-nel are in short supply and so on.”

After consultations with industry, the CAAC says it has come up with an 18-point plan to improve things. Many of the points have been only vaguely

described—for example, “strengthen-ing regulation and control, including the system for allowing entry into the market.” But others are a little more concrete, such as “perfecting the na-tional airport plan,” presumably in fa-vor of business aviation, “and pushing forward infrastructure construction.”

Airports at Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang and Shenzhen have or are building business-aviation terminals. Zhuhai has taken frst steps for a fxed-base operation (FBO) trial. Some air-ports have set up special arrival and departure channels for business-avia-tion passengers, and some, while hav-ing no dedicated terminal, are at least preparing facilities to support business aircraft. c

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special-mission confgurations. As a result, production rates for the 350i, and earlier 350, have averaged slightly more than 40 a year over the last decade.

All current production Beechcraft products have all-metal airframes. Few parts are manufactured using computer-controlled machines and other automated tools. Production is labor-intensive and, because of high labor costs in the U.S., much of the 350i’s airframe, including tail and upper and lower fuselage sections, are now built at the company’s facility in Chihuahua, Mexico.

The King Air 350 was certifed in 1989, grandfathered as the Model B300 on the 1973 Model 200 FAA type certifcate. Compared with the King Air 200, the B300 features a 34-in. fuselage stretch, two more cabin windows and double-club

seating for eight. The wing is about 3 ft. wider in span than the 200’s. The aircraft’s maximum takeof weight exceeds 12,500 lb., which moves it into the commuter category and requires pilots be type-rated.

The 350i made its production debut in 2009, featuring im-proved interior soundproofng, Rockwell Collins Pro Line 21 integrated avionics and Venue cabin entertainment system, and Raisbeck Engineering’s dual aft-body strakes and wing lockers in the nacelles. Winglets improve the aircraft’s lift-to-drag ratio at relatively high lift-coefcients, which increases OEI takeof performance. The aft-body strakes improve yaw stability and allow the aircraft to be dispatched with an in-operative yaw damper and fown at altitudes up to 19,000 ft., versus 5,000 ft. for an unmodifed aircraft. The wing lockers add 16 cu. ft. and 600 lb. of external baggage capacity.

The fight deck has three, large-format, portrait-confgu-

Fred George Wilmington, Del.

Phoenix FlagshipKing Air 350i exemplifes a smaller

Beechcraft, back from bankruptcy

with more modest ambitions

Throughout Beechcraft’s tumultuous recent history, one thing remained constant—the popularity of its twin-turboprop King Air. The company has risen from the

ashes of bankruptcy and returned to its roots as a dedicated manufacturer of propeller-powered aircraft, and King Air is once again its fagship.

The aircraft’s importance to the “new” Beechcraft was underlined in August, when it landed the largest-ever order for general-aviation turboprops and inked a 105-aircraft, $788 million deal for King Air 350is with Wheels Up, a new mem-bers-only air transportation venture started by the founders of jet-card pioneers Marquis Jet.

The back-to-basics King Air 350i is as Midwestern as corn and soybeans, and just as consistently in demand in the mar-ketplace. It now serves as the real-life phoenix of the new Beechcraft, a leaner and fnancially stronger company since its February reorganization and relaunch. But the 350i is more down-to-earth than the Hawker jets that previously topped its product range, a mix of old and new that defnes the company’s more modest ambitions.

“We’re not selling the tip of the pyramid in luxury and per-formance. We’re selling very well-executed regional transpor-tation,” says CEO Bill Boisture. While a 300-kt. King Air 350i lacks the panache of a 430-kt. turbofan, it is only 20-30 min. slower than a jet on shorter trips and burns 20% less fuel. The duration of most business aircraft trips is less than 2 hr., and most missions are no longer than 300-600 nm. The 350i provides cost-efective transportation for 8-10 passengers at a signifcantly lower operating cost than a comparable jet. Es-timated direct operating cost is less than $1,200/hr., including engine reserves, scheduled maintenance and $6/gal. fuel.

These economic realities hit home after the 2008 fnancial crisis, when hundreds of jet owners chocked or chucked their aircraft. The collapse in demand for small and medium jets caused then-Hawker Beechcraft to hemorrhage more than $1.6 billion from 2009-12. Faced with more than $2.6 billion in debt, mainly due to its money-losing turbofans, the company negoti-ated a pre-planned bankruptcy reorganization with debt hold-ers, creditors and suppliers. Its propeller models—especially the King Airs—held their own during the global meltdown and the manufacturer also secured $400 million in debtor-in-possession fnancing to kick-start operations as it exited bankruptcy in February.

The King Air 350i has more to ofer than just attractive operating economics. As a Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Part 23 commuter-category aircraft, it delivers much the same one-engine-inoperative (OEI) takeof safety margins as a FAR Part 25 transport-category jet. It is available in cargo/combi/freighter, air ambulance, surveillance and other

Business AviAtion

Beechcraft King Air 350i specifcations

Dimensions (ft.)

Wingspan..................57.7

Length...................... 46.8

Height....................... 14.3

Seating 1+5

Engine...... 2.x.1,050-shp.P&WC.PT6A-60A

Weights (lb.)

Max.TO/Landing.............15,000

Basic.Operating.............. 10,190

Useful.Load....................... 4,910

Max.Fuel............................ 3,611

Payload.with.Max.Fuel...... 1,299

Fuel.with.Max.Payload...... 2,600

Performance

Max.Cruise...............313.kt.

Range.(4.pax).......1,714.nm

Max.Altitude........35,000.ft.

The King Air 350i’s performance ofers transport-cate-gory safety margins at turboprop fuel efciency.



ration liquid-crystal displays used for left and right prima-ry fight displays (PFD) and center multi-function display (MFD) with engine indications. The integrated fight infor-mation system hosts electronic charts, enhanced map graph-ics, and optional XM satellite or Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (Acars) weather, among other functions. The package includes dual solid-state atti-tude/heading reference systems, digital air-data computers, data concentrators, audio panels, fail-passive fight guidance computers and communication/navigation radios.

Also included is a single FMS-3000 multi-sensor fight man-agement system (FMS) and a data loader that uses thumb drives. Options include a second FMS; an infrared, enhanced-vision system camera and VHF data radio to support Acars.

In the cabin, Aircell Axxess II Iridium satcom and Gogo Biz Wi-Fi also are options, along with XM satellite radio, a moving map display, individual plug-in passenger seat monitors and aft-mounted, swing-out, forward-facing large-format monitors.

The 350i features a sound-suppression system with triple-layer skin-panel insulation and dynamically tuned vibration dampers, plus 3-in.-thick thermal insulation and an acousti-cally isolated interior shell. The system is tuned for 1,500-rpm prop speed and lowers noise by 4 db to about 78 db in cruise.

We strapped into the left seat of a King Air 350i at Atlantic Aviation’s ramp at Wilmington, Del., with Beechcraft demo pilot Errol Wuertz, Jr. My frst impression is of the blend of old and new technologies. The Pro Line 21 avionics system adds great capabilities and situational awareness, especially because of its glareshield-mounted fight guidance system control panels and large displays, but it is far from being fully integrated with aircraft systems.

Instead of an integrated crew-alerting system on the elec-tronic displays, for example, the original upper and lower

annunciator-light panels are retained. To initialize the FMS, the crew must manually input fuel quantity because it is not integrated with the fuel-quantity indication system. The FMS is not linked with the pressurization system, so departure and arrival feld elevations must be entered into the pressurization control panel. The 350i does have a Keith Products’ climate-control system that automatically adjusts heating, cooling and fan speed to ideal temperatures in the cockpit and cabin.

A performance computer is not part of the avionics pack-age, so the crew must look up V speeds and takeoff field length based on weight, airport elevation, wind and outside air temperature (OAT). Some crews elect to use their own electronic fight bags for takeof performance calculations. Computed V speeds then are manually entered to generate speed bugs on the PFD airspeed tape.

We initialized the FMS and programmed in the fight plan. Single-pilot basic operating weight was 10,190 lb., with two other occupants aboard, plus galley stores and baggage. With 2,050 lb. of fuel, ramp weight was 12,940 lb. Wuertz rounded up our takeof weight to 13,000 lb. Based on using no faps, Wilmington’s 80-ft.-feld elevation and 23C OAT, the V1 deci-sion speed was 99 kt. indicated airspeed (KIAS), rotation 104 kt. and the V2 takeof safety speed 111 kt. Computed takeof feld length was 3,203 ft. and runway available was 4,602 ft. Target en route climb speed was 170 kt.

The 350i is easy to taxi because of diferential thrust, smooth brakes and efective nosewheel steering via the rudder pedals. Holding short of Runway 32, we commenced the litany of frst-day pre-takeof checks, including electric pitch trim, prop over-speed governor and rudder boost, low-pitch stop and primary governor, autofeather and engine anti-ice systems. Wuertz says the checks can be done quite quickly with some practice, but it would be advisable to run through them before board-ing passengers who have paid for a fight. Various fuel system, cabin altitude, landing gear and fre-protection checks must be completed. Brake deice, trafc collision avoidance and terrain awareness system checks are performed before each fight.

Once cleared for takeof, we advanced the power to about 85% torque as we began the takeof roll. The pitot cowl in-lets are so efcient at converting air velocity into air pres-sure that torque increased 5% during takeof roll. We adjusted power to 100% torque. As the engines accelerated to 1,700 prop rpm, aircraft interior noise levels rose accordingly; it was not particularly quiet. I also noticed we spent considerable time cross-checking engine output and making minor adjustments to set takeoff power. Clearly, the Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-60As are long overdue for a full-authority digital elec-tronic control (Fadec) upgrade to reduce pilot workload.

Rotation force was light, as was roll-control force. The Beechcraft standard for gentle and progressive control force far exceeds any certification requirement. With a positive rate of climb, we retracted the landing gear with virtually no pitch-moment change. There was a small lag in the response to inputs to the pitch-trim switch. The manual pitch-trim wheel provided immediate response, but a comparatively small amount of rotation results in a large change in trim.

Pulling back the throttles to 95% torque and setting the prop levers to 1,500 rpm reduced the interior noise considerably. Clearly, the sound-suppression system is tuned to 100-hz noise, the prop frequency at that speed. The reduction from takeof to climb power results in a signifcant change in yawing mo-ment, requiring left rudder input and corresponding rudder trim to maintain balanced fight. A similar change in yawing

Beechcraft

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to fy along with Fred George as he evaluates the King Air 350i, or go to AviationWeek.com/video

http://AviationWeek.com/video


moment came as we reduced power after level-of at cruise altitude. And the yaw damper does not compensate much for such changes.

We had planned to reach a cruise altitude of 7,000 ft. in 10 min. for our brief fight to Morristown, N.J., but air trafc control kept us at 4,000 ft. for the 93-nm jaunt. We settled into a 200-kt. cruise below the foor of Philadelphia Class B airspace. Operating at low altitude, at this speed, the King Air 350i shows of its big advantage in fuel efciency over similarly sized turbofans. “In this area, this airplane operates

so much cheaper than a jet and you’re doing the same thing that the jets do. They can’t get high, either,” Wuertz said. At a weight of 12,700 lb., cruising at 200 kt. at 4,000 ft. in 17C conditions, the aircraft burned 730 lb./hr.

Once clear of the shadow of Philadelphia’s Class B airspace, we accelerated to 250 kt.“Easy on the power,” cautioned Wuertz, as we fne-tuned the throttles to avoid exceeding 100% torque. PT6A engines tend to be sensitive to throttle move-ments at higher power settings, and the response is anything but linear. At 12,500 lb., the aircraft settled into cruise at 250 KIAS (266 kt. true airspeed) while burning 1,020 lb./hr.

Approaching the foor of New York’s Class B airspace, we slowed back to 200 KIAS. Wuertz entered Morristown’s Run-way 23 instrument landing system (ILS) approach into the FMS for reference purposes. The FMS automatically tuned to 110.3 mhz for the ILS approach, and the PFD displayed the 229-deg. inbound localizer course in the preview mode.

Changes in power, and therefore fuel fow, result in simple time/distance/fuel-remaining computations by the FMS. Un-like most jets, the FMS in this aircraft is not sophisticated enough to consider expected climb, cruise, and descent fuel burns and speeds when computing fuel remaining at the des-tination. “It’s just like a calculator. You punch it in and that’s what it’s telling you,” Wuertz explained.

On downwind, Wuertz switched on the aircraft’s optional nose-mounted, infrared enhanced-vision-system camera. This is a microbolometer design that is good for thermal imaging at night or in partial obscuration. The technology much improves situational awareness when fying “black hole” approaches, particularly where obstacles in the fnal approach path pose potential hazards.

New York directed us to descend to 3,000 ft. on downwind to Runway 23 and slow to 160 kt. Those 105-in. props function efectively as speedbrakes, and the aircraft easily goes down

and slows down simultaneously. We extended faps, noting a slight ballooning tendency. Turning base to fnal, we descended to 2,000 ft. and were cleared for the ILS approach. We elected to fy the initial part of the procedure at 140 kt. with approach faps so as not to impede arriving jet trafc. We extended full faps over the fnal approach fx, slowing to 130 kt.

“It slows pretty easily,” Wuertz commented. But the in-fight idle-pitch stops prevented the blades from going almost fat when the throttles were retarded. Nearing 500 ft. above ground level (AGL), we slowed to the 101-kt. fnal approach speed. We disengaged the yaw damper at 100 ft. AGL. Over threshold at 50 ft. AGL, we gradually reduced power. We could have chopped the power to idle sooner to slow the air-craft and there would have been less foat prior to touchdown.

The King Air 350i is a more fuel-efcient and practical al-ternative to a jet for the short-range trips most business air-craft operators fy daily. If you really needed to fll the tanks and almost every seat, the 350i ofers load-and-go operating fexibility. Typically equipped, it can carry seven passengers with full fuel and baggage in both the aft bay and wing lockers.

While few groups of seven people want to spend 5-6 hr. to-gether fying 1,500 nm. in this class of aircraft, the 350i would enable them to hopscotch from White Plains, N.Y., to Montreal to Pittsburgh to Washington and back to White Plains without refueling. The lackluster OEI takeof performance of most twin turboprops disqualifes them as serious corporate transports, but the King Air 350i provides essentially the same single-engine performance margins as an transport-category jet.

The Pro Line 21 avionics increase situational awareness, but its state of development leaves room for improvement, in-cluding synthetic vision, a fully integrated engine-indication and crew-alerting system and an FMS with an airport per-formance computer and climb/cruise/descent performance

projections. The Venue system puts the 350i’s cabin environ-ment on par with the best light jets. But it needs an Apple-compatible Wi-Fi distribution system so that iPads, iPhones and MacBooks can double as personal video monitors.

The aircraft is not as easy to fy as a business jet, particu-larly because its avionics are not fully integrated with aircraft systems, the engines lack Fadecs and the cockpit has dozens of legacy switches and manually operated systems, some of which date back to the original 1964 King Air. c

Business AviAtion

64 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21 2013 AviationWeek.com/awst

The 350i’s avionics are capable, but not fully integrated.

The typical interior layout of the King Air 350i is double-club seating for eight. Its cabin electronics are on par with those on light jets.

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Guy Norris Los Angeles

Power TransferCore technology from the latest

commercial aircraft engines

is set to power the next generation

of business jets

With the emergence of a new generation of large-cabin, long-range business aircraft,

the industry could be witnessing a sea change in the traditional chicken-and-egg relationship between airframe and engine makers.

Unlike previous generations, which use myriad bespoke engines derived from existing families, at least some of the new large business jets will be powered by purpose-designed power-plants, derived from the same all-new cores in development for the next gen-eration of commercial airliners.

General Electric’s $1.5 billion Pass-port engine program for Bombardier’s Global 7000 and 8000 business jets is the bellwether for this change, as it comes directly from the company’s eCore advanced core development. Scaled versions of the same core form the heart of the GE-Snecma Leap engine for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, as well as the 100,000-lb.-thrust GE9X for Boeing’s 777X long-range airliner.

The scaled common core concept is similar to the building-block approach developed by Rolls-Royce for its Trent large commercial engine series, but GE is applying it across a wider range

of thrusts and markets. This enables greater leverage of technologies across multiple aircraft families, maximizing the sharing of development experience between programs.

Testing of the Passport began at GE’s facility in Peebles, Ohio, on June 24. The en-gine started at the first attempt and “went right up to idle and later to its full power of 18,000 lb. thrust within 3 hours,” says Brad Mottier, vice president and gen-eral manager of GE Aviation’s Business & General Aviation and Integrated Systems di-vision. The Bombardier engine is “a mini-Leap basi-cally, and the eCore technology we’re putting in MAX and Neo is the same that is in Passport,” he says.

A second engine entered testing in September, with a further six planned in a certifcation program that includes two cores. Flight testing is scheduled for 2014, with the engine expected to fy frst on GE’s recently modifed Boe-ing 747-400 testbed. Certifcation is ex-pected in 2015, leading to service entry on the Global 7000 in 2016.

Just as GE is leveraging commercial core technology for the business jet market, so too is Pratt & Whitney Can-ada (P&WC) as it prepares for rig tests of its PW800 demonstrator—a new en-

Business AviAtion

Rig tests of the frst full PW800 demonstrator will start by year-end.

Ge

Incorporating next-generation com-mon core technology, GE’s Passport will enter fight testing in 2014.

The certifcation-test program fol-lows three years of validation testing on key elements of the Passport’s de-sign, one of the most dramatic being the 52-in.-dia. fan blisk. That work included two fan blade-out rig tests, ingestion tests and a fan aerodynamic rig test to demonstrate efciency.

The solid titanium fan—optimized to reduce cabin noise as well as vibra-

tion—is a distinctive feature, says Mot-tier. “When you see the engine from the front, the diameter of the spinner cone is small in comparison to others because the fan is a bladed disk, and it therefore has a smaller hub.” Blisks and compressor blades have a smooth, impact-resistant surface fnish to im-prove aerodynamic efciency.

The engine also incorporates a com-posite fan case, similar to that devel-oped for the GEnx engine on the Boe-ing 747-8 and 787, and is enclosed within an integrated propulsion system from Nexcelle, a joint venture between GE and Safran. This confguration includes a low-drag “slimline” nacelle with out-ward-opening cowl to reduce weight while easing maintenance access.

P&

WC



gine based on the core of the PW1000G geared turbofan. The engine is a long time coming to the market, having been selected for the Cessna Citation Colum-bus in 2008, but shelved in 2009 after the cancellation of the aircraft. But de-spite the project’s termination, and the plunge in the business aviation market that prompted Cessna’s move in 2009, P&WC’s ambitions for a new large en-gine remain undaunted.

Like the market itself, the PW800 has moved on. Instead of aiming for the much-vaunted, but nebulous “10K” (10,000-lb.)-thrust arena which rose to premature prominence last decade, P&WC has realigned the PW800 away from its original 8,000-9,000-lb. power bracket. The company now plans to penetrate the large-cabin, long-range sector between 10,000 lb. and 18,000 lb. and is banking on greater direct use of the core experience gained with the PW1000G family.

The frst full-confguration PW1524G for Bombardier’s CSeries airliner ran in 2010 and now, with almost three years of core test and development under its belt, the company feels ready for a quick-paced development if a PW800 customer comes along. “Now we have a core that runs, and fies. Three to four years is a typical development timescale, but with the core already existing we will be faster,” says P&WC’s president, John Sabaas.

“If anything has hurt us, it is the fact that the small/medium business-jet markets have slowed down,” he notes, referring to sectors served by the exist-ing PW300 and PW500 families. “So, to balance out the portfolio in jets, we are using the PW1000G as the basis. The CSeries and MRJ [Mitsubishi Regional Jet] cores are perfect in terms of cover-ing the 10,000-18,000-lb.-thrust class,” says Sabaas.

The MRJ will be powered by the 15,000-17,000-lb. PW1215G, the core of which makes a suitable jumping-off point to power a larger business aircraft. “So we demonstrated a low-pressure spool and now we are turn-ing it into a demonstrator program to validate we can hit the specific fuel-consumption numbers we are talking about,” he adds. The engine is set to run in Canada before year-end.

Mike Perodeau, P&WC vice presi-dent for corporate aviation, says that with the PW800 “we continue to dem-onstrate the technology in the hopes of securing a launch customer.” He notes

that the company has “a head start with the core of the en-gine, which is also designed to fly at high altitude. The core is the most difficult and nec-essary part, and it is already certifed.”

P&WC contin-ues to distance itself from previous reports linking the PW800 with Gulfstream’s secretive G450 successor program, the so-called Project P42. Although its existence was confirmed earlier this year when Parker Aerospace posted a job opening for a fight-control systems engineer to work on the Gulfstream P42, there has been no verifcation of the project from P&WC.

Below the PW800 thrust bracket, P&WC is studying its options while the super-midsize (SMS) and smaller mar-ket sectors shape up. “Clearly every-thing below very ‘heavy iron’ continues to sufer,” says Perodeau. “Volumes are stable, and not dropping, but they are nowhere near where they were at the end of 2008. It’s not that companies do not have the cash to invest, it’s just they are being hesitant and waiting as they wonder what to do next. But at the same time there are a lot of posi-tive signs. There are companies tak-ing more serious looks at new aircraft. There are just a lot of mixed signals.”

P&WC continues to develop its stal-wart PW300 family with the recent cer-tifcation of an upgraded PW306D for the Citation Sovereign. The 5,814-lb.-thrust turbofan, with 3-D aerodynam-ics and higher-temperature materials, will also power Cessna’s new midsize Citation Latitude, set to fy early next year and enter service in 2015. Other developments include the PW307B for the delayed Learjet 85 and certifcation of the PW308C with the low-emissions Talon II combustor for the Dassault Falcon 2000S.

Formal launch of Dassault’s long-anticipated SMS project is expected at the National Business Aviation As-sociation convention in Las Vegas Oct. 22-24. Originally to be powered by a new Rolls-Royce two-shaft engine, the RB.282, the powerplant competition was thrown open again in 2009 when the program was slowed. Snecma’s Sil-vercrest has been unofcially aligned

with the SMS since 2010 and is widely expected to be ofcially revealed as the engine for the Falcon 50 replacement.

The Silvercrest began ground tests at Snecma’s Villaroche site in France in September 2012 and is due to start flight tests late this year in Texas on a modified Gulfstream II testbed ac-quired from sister avionics company Sagem. The engine, rated at 11,000 lb. thrust, has been selected ofcially by Cessna for the Citation Longitude SMS jet, plus another “undisclosed” application.

Snecma’s first foray into business aviation, the Silvercrest has a 42.5-in.-dia. fan, four-stage low-pressure (LP) and five-stage high-pressure (HP) compressor. Four of the HP stages are axial blisks while the ffth is a cen-trifugal stage. Aft of the low-emissions combustor is a single-stage HP turbine and four-stage LP turbine. Engine cer-tifcation is on track for 2015, with ser-vice entry of the SC-2C version on the Longitude in 2017.

Having watched its early advantage in the 10K engine battle evaporate with Dassault’s about-turn on the SMS, and with its high-end market positions at Gulfstream and Bombardier threat-ened by GE and Pratt, where does Rolls-Royce see its future? At 13%, business jets are the company’s second-largest market, after the airliner sector.

“Clearly the business-jet engine market is important to Rolls-Royce, and we intend to maintain our market leadership,” says Steve Friedrich, vice president of sales and marketing for the small- and medium-engine busi-ness. “To do this, we are in constant

Business AviAtion

Honeywell hopes the latest HTF7500E will provide a spring-board to growth versions.

HoneyWell



dialogue with all the airframers about new engine concepts and derivatives from our existing portfolio.”

He points to the strength of Rolls’s continuing relationship with Gulf-stream on the BR725-powered, Mach- 0.925 G650 as an example of where “for the future, we will base our growth on where we are strong.” A similar rela-tionship continues with Cessna, which early next year will begin deliveries of a revamped, AE3007C2-powered Cita-tion X with a top speed of Mach 0.935.

But beyond these programs, Rolls remains coy about specifc technology plans and strategic eforts to protect the high-end market. It is focusing much of its research and development on tech-nology for an Advance 2 medium/small turbofan, which could spawn a new gen-eration of engines for the high-end busi-ness jet market as well as long-term re-

placements for the A320neo/737 MAX.For technologies more specifcally

tailored toward corporate aircraft, Rolls is also running a demonstrator called HiTPAC, an equivalent to the Rig 639 and Core 3/2 demonstrators associated with the Advance 2 initia-tive. Rolls is also working quietly with Gulfstream and others on engine con-cepts for supersonic business jets.

Honeywell, too, is banking on new technologies to help it expand beyond its HTF7000 engine family into more advanced growth engines. These in-clude new “blisked” high-speed fan designs; higher-temperature turbine disks made from Alloy 10, a powder metal nickel-based superalloy; ther-

mal-barrier-coated (TBC) turbine blades and air-cooled turbine vanes; high-temperature titanium cases; and further developments of its Saber low-emissions combustor technology.

An Alloy 10 impeller, low-leakage seals and improved low-conductivity, nano-laminate TBCs are being evalu-ated in Honeywell’s Tech 7000 work-horse test engine as part of the FAA’s Continuous Lower Emissions, Energy and Noise research program.

With certifcation imminent for the HTF7500E engine for Embraer’s mid-size Legacy 500 and medium-light Leg-acy 450, Honeywell is seeking growth opportunities in the midsize and SMS arenas. “We’re going to have to place our bets. We’ve got to kind of guess at a gate and pick a thrust range below the Silvercrest and above the HTF7000,” Jim Kroeger, Honeywell’s director of

engineering for propulsion systems, said earlier this year. The Silvercrest is centered on the 11,000-lb.-thrust class while the most powerful HF7000 vari-ant, at 7,445 lb. thrust, is the HTF7250G powering the Gulfstream G250.

“There is a hole in the market, which we see as an emerging segment, and the Honeywell [business aviation] fore-cast shows strength in that area,” says Kroeger. In its 2012 forecast, the engine maker predicted a requirement for up to 10,000 aircraft worth $250 billion to 2022, of which more than a third are ex-pected to be in the medium, medium-large and large sectors, within the po-tential scope of a higher-thrust engine.

With its current fan, Honeywell says

the HTF7000 could go to about 7,500 lb. “But we can see opportunities to up-grade the core to get more performance out of it and, though that wouldn’t take us to 10,000 lb., it would provide the basis for that growth,” notes Kroeger.

Honeywell originally planned to run a HTF10000 demonstrator covering the 9,500-11,000-lb.-thrust range in 2008, but shelved the idea to focus on the HTF7000 as potential midsize ap-plications grew beyond the initial 10K range before mostly disappearing al-together as the market collapsed. Now the picture is again changing, as the midsize market stirs once more.

While the focus will be on higher-thrust engines until the market for smaller business jets recovers, there is one key development expected in the lower-thrust category: the long-antic-ipated certifcation of the GE-Honda HF120 for the HondaJet light jet. Com-ing almost 10 years after the formation of GE Honda Aero Engines, and seven years after the launch of the HF120, ap-proval has taken longer and cost more than either partner expected.

Part of a larger strategic tie-up be-tween the parent companies, the en-gine venture has endured a painfully

slow certification effort. But Honda has learned invaluable lessons about engine design and development from GE, which in turn, has new insight into the Japanese company’s formidable ca-pabilities for rapid prototyping.

The 2,095-lb.-thrust HF120 incor-porates some of the most advanced design features yet used on a small turbofan. These include a wide-chord, compound-swept fan and two-stage LP compressor, along with compos-ite outlet guide vanes and a titanium impeller. The engine also incorporates GE’s materials know-how in the HP turbine, with a two-stage LP turbine and counter-rotating high- and low- pressure shafts.

GE-Honda entered the fnal leg of the engine certifcation process in May, just as the ffth and fnal conforming HondaJet joined the FAA function and reliability fight-test program. Engine approval is expected in the fourth quarter of this year, and Honda Air-craft is targeting the end of 2014 for certifcation of the HondaJet. c

Snecma’s Silvercrest has emerged as an early leader in the “10K” (10,000-lb.)-thrust sector.

SneCma


Business aviation


Graham Warwick

In the PipelineNew business aircraft

now in development

BeechcraftHawker 400XPR

launched in november 2011, this factory upgrade reen-gines the Hawker 400XP/Beechcraft 400A light jet with 3,200-lb.-thrust Williams FJ44-4A-32s, adds winglets (and optional Rockwell Collins Pro Line 21 cockpit), for a 450-kt. cruise and 1,655-nm range (four passengers). First fown in May 2012, deliveries are to begin by year-end.

BombardierLearjet 70/75

Upgrades of the learjet 40/45 super-light jets, with lower fuel burn and better feld performance, the six-passenger 70 and eight-passenger 75 (shown) have 3,850-lb.-thrust Honeywell TFE731-40BRs, canted winglets and Garmin G5000 avionics. The Learjet 70/75 will fy 2,060/2,040 nm at Mach 0.75 (four passengers) and cruise at Mach 0.81 and 51,000 ft. Launched in May 2012, deliveries are to begin by year-end.

Learjet 85

the all-new, all-composite Bombardier Learjet 85 was launched in 2007. The eight-passenger mid-size jet is powered by 6,100-lb.-thrust Pratt & Whitney Can-ada PW307Bs and has Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion avionics. Max cruise is Mach 0.82 and range is 3,000 nm at Mach 0.78 (four passengers). Delayed frst fight is expected late this year, for service entry in mid-2014.

Challenger 350

Unveiled in May, this update of the super mid-size Bom-bardier Challenger 300 includes higher maximum takeof weight, uprated 7,323-lb.-thrust Honeywell HTF7350s, canted winglets, updated Rockwell Collins Pro Line 21 avionics and larger cabin windows. Range increases to 3,200 nm at Mach 0.8 (eight passengers). First fight was in March, for service entry in 2014.

Global 7000/8000

bombardier’s response to the Gulfstream G650, in 2010, was to launch two larger mem-bers of the Global large-cabin jet family. The ul-tra-large Global 7000 has a four-zone cabin and 7,300-nm range at Mach 0.85 (10 passengers); the ultra-long-range Global 8000 has a three-zone cabin and 7,600-nm range at Mach 0.85 (eight passengers). With a Mach 0.9 high-speed cruise, they are powered by 16,500-lb.-thrust General Electric Passports, with Pro Line Fu-sion avionics and fy-by-wire. Entry into service is 2016 for the 7000 and 2017 for the 8000.

Caiga

Primus 150

Avic subsidiary China Aviation Industry General Aircraft is developing a fve-seat, pressurized single-turboprop with all-composite airframe, based on the U.S. Epic LT kitplane. Powered by an 850-shp General Electric H85, speed is tar-geted at 350 kt. and range at 1,400 nm.

BeechcraftHawker 400XPR

CAIGA

Primus 150

BombardierLearjet 70/75

http://aviationWeek.com/awst

aviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21, 2013 69

CessnaCitation M2

this update of the cJ1 six-passenger light jet was launched in 2011, and frst few in March 2012. The M2 has 1,965-lb.-thrust Williams FJ44-1AP-21s, Garmin G3000 avionics, a 400-kt. cruise speed and 1,300-nm range. Certifcation is expected by year-end.

Citation Latitude

the mid-size latitude is scheduled to fy early in 2014, having been launched in 2011 with certifcation targeted for 2015. The aircraft has a stand-up cabin for 7/9 passengers, 5,760-lb.-thrust Pratt & Whitney Canada PW306Ds, Garmin G5000 cockpit, 440-kt. cruise speed and 2,500-nm range.

Citation Sovereign

launched in 2012, this update of the mid-size Sovereign increases speed and range and improves the avionics. The aircraft has 5,852-lb.-thrust Pratt & Whitney Canada PW306Ds, Garmin G5000 cockpit, 458-kt. cruise and 3,000-nm range. First production fight was in April, with delivery this year.

Citation Xcessna has upgraded the high-speed Citation X with a new cockpit and longer range. With uprated 7,034-lb.-thrust Rolls-Royce AE3007C2s, Garmin G5000 cockpit and autothrottles, maxi-mum speed is now Mach 0.935. First fight was in January 2012, with deliver-ies to begin early in 2014.

Citation Longitude

cessna launched the super mid-size Longitude in 2012 to replace the canceled Citation Columbus. The eight-passenger jet is powered by 11,000-lb.-thrust-plus Snecma Silvercrest SC-2Cs and has Garmin G5000 avionics, a Mach 0.86 maxi-mum speed and 4,000-nm range at Mach 0.82. First fight is set for mid-2016, service entry for the frst half of 2017.

Cirrus AircraftVision SF50

Work on this $1.96 million single-en-gine personal jet has accelerated under Cirrus’ Chinese owners. The “5+2”-seat jet is powered by a Williams FJ33-5A, with Garmin cockpit. Range is 1,000 nm at 300 kt., 1,200 nm at 210 kt. First “verifcation aircraft” few in July 2008, but frst conforming aircraft is to fy early in 2014 and certifcation/delivery is planned for late 2015.

Eclipse Aerospace

EA550After buying the eclipse 500 very-light-jet program out of liquidation in 2009, Eclipse Aerospace relaunched production in 2012, fying the frst im-proved EA550 in mid-2013. Now priced at $2.895 million, the EA550 has the

Cessna

Citation Longitude

Eclipse Aerospace

EA550

Cirrus AircraftVision SF50


same 900-lb.-thrust Pratt & Whit-ney Canada PW610Fs, improved avionics, autothrottles, anti-skid, deicing and other upgrades. Maxi-mum speed is 375 kt. and range 1,300 nm. Deliveries are planned to begin by year-end.

EmbraerLegacy 450/500

in 2008, embraer launched a pair of clean-sheet medium-light and mid-size jets based on the same airframe, stand-up cabin, engines and systems. Powered by 6,540-lb.-thrust Honeywell HTF7500Es, with Rockwell Col-lins Pro Line Fusion avionics and fy-by-wire, the aircraft have a Mach 0.82 cruise speed and a range of 3,000 nm for the mid-size Legacy 500 (shown) and 2,300 nm

for the shorter, lighter 450. The 500 frst few in November 2012, for service entry in the frst half of 2014; the 450 will fy this year for delivery in the frst half of 2015.

Epic Aircraft E1000

Acquired by russian Mro engineering in 2012, Epic Aircraft plans a certifed version of its Epic LT single-turboprop kitplane. Pow-ered by a Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-67A, and with Garmin G1000 cockpit, the $2.75 million E1000 is planned to fy early in 2014 and be certifed early in 2015.

Honda Aircraft HA420 HondaJet

honda has pushed certifcation of the light


EmbraerLegacy 450/500

Epic Aircraft E1000

Honda Aircraft HA420 HondaJet

Business aviation


Kestrel AircraftK-350

begun by the U.k.’s Farnborough Aircraft, work on this 6/8-seat, all-composite, single turboprop was taken over by U.S.-based Kes-trel Aircraft in 2010. With a 1,700-shp Honey-well TPE331-14GR and Garmin G3000 cock-pit, Kestrel is targeting a 320-kt. cruise speed and 1,300-nm range. First fight is planned for summer 2014, for delivery by early 2016—if the required funding can be raised.

Pilatus AircraftPC-24

pilatus made its long-anticipated move into the jet mar-ket this year, unveiling a clean-sheet, mid-size jet that is planned to fy at the end of 2014 for certifcation early in 2017. The PC-24 is a 6/10-passenger/combi aircraft with standard cargo door and short/soft-feld capability. Pow-ered by 3,400-lb.-thrust Williams FJ44-4As, with Honey-

well Apex/Epic avionics, the PC-24 will have a 425-kt. and 1,950-nm range (with four passengers).

SyberjetSJ30

Designed in 1986 by Ed Swearin-gen, frst fown in 1996 and certi-fed in 2005 by Sino Swearingen Aircraft, the SJ30-2 was acquired from bankrupt Emivest in 2011 by airframe supplier Metalcraft Tech-nologies, which plans to start pro-duction by mid-2015. An upgraded cockpit based on Honeywell Epic avionics is to fy early in 2014. Pow-ered by Williams FJ44s, the SJ30 has a Mach 0.83 cruise and 2,500-nm range.

HondaJet back to the end of 2014, citing delays with the 2,050-lb.-thrust General Electric/Honda HF120 engines, which were to be certifed by the end of September. The proof-of-concept HondaJet few in 2003, to test the over-the-wing engines and natural-laminar-fow aerodynamics. The frst conforming aircraft few in December 2010. The HondaJet has a Garmin G3000 touchscreen cockpit, 420-kt. cruise and 1,180-nm range.

aviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/october 14/21, 2013 71

Kestrel AircraftK-350

Pilatus AircraftPC-24

SyberjetSJ30



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Life After DayJetEclipse is back in production fve years after

air-taxi venture and very light jet market collapsed

Five years after DayJet’s ambi-tious adventure into per-seat, on-demand air taxi operations ended

in fnancial failure, two key components are making a comeback—the Eclipse very light jet and the operations man-agement and optimization software that was DayJet’s secret weapon.

Launched in October 2007 in Flor-ida, DayJet ceased operations in Sep-tember 2008, and its collapse helped push already struggling Eclipse Avia-tion into bankruptcy two months later. So far, no one has tried to resurrect DayJet’s service model, but the aircraft manufacturer was purchased out of liquidation in August 2009 and BoldIQ is fnding new markets for the software technology.

When the “new” Eclipse Aerospace opened its doors in September 2009, the company had three business objec-tives: restore service and support for existing Eclipse 500 operators; com-plete development of the very light jet; and return the aircraft to production. With the planned unveiling of the frst new-production Eclipse 550 at the Na-tional Business Aviation Association

convention in Las Vegas Oct. 22-24, the company will have accomplished those objectives.

BoldIQ, meanwhile, is working to ap-ply the software that enabled DayJet’s unscheduled operations to other mar-kets that must optimize resources and deal with disruptions to operations, including commercial airlines, main-tenance and health care providers and the military.

By the time it fled for bankruptcy, “old” Eclipse had delivered almost 260 aircraft in just 17 months. When “new” Eclipse took over barely a year later, 50% or more of those were grounded by lack of spares and 850 part num-bers were on back order. Today, all but a couple of aircraft are fying and “in May we had a week with zero parts on back order for any customer,” says CEO Mason Holland.

With support restored, Eclipse set about upgrading the aircraft, which did not have integrated GPS or the ability to fy into known icing. “We called it an upgrade, but should have called it completion,” he says. “We worked with our avionics team to quickly develop

the integrated fight management sys-tem [IFMS].” Whether to upgrade was up to the customer, but more than 70% of the feet now has IFMS.

“We priced it afordably enough that many customers have invested less in their aircraft and its completion than they could sell it for today,” says Hol-land. In 2009, an Eclipse was worth around $750,000. Owners have spent $300,000-400,000 on upgrades, for a total investment of around $1.1 million. “Today, aircraft are selling for $1.5 mil-lion or better, so the increase in value is greater than the money they put in,” he says.

The third business objective, put-ting the Eclipse back into production, took longer than expected because of business aviation’s slow recovery from the fnancial crisis of 2008. “We thought we could get production go-ing in three years, by the end of 2012, but the markets did not move back as quickly as expected,” Holland says. But there are signs of improvement, he says, and the company plans to be-gin Eclipse 550 deliveries by year-end.

First flown in mid-year and priced just under $3 million, the 550 incorpo-rates several improvements over the 500. The biggest is a new cockpit panel with more-powerful processors and dual-redundant IFMS. “On the 500, the FMS is in the MFD [multi-function dis-play]. On the 550, we have databases for the FMS in both PFDs [primary fight displays]. It still displays on the MFD,

Business AviAtion

Production of the improved Eclipse 550 is underway at Albuquerque, N.M.


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Next Niche

Almost a year after Embraer few its frst midsize jet, the Legacy 500, the company is preparing

to fy its smaller sibling, the Legacy 450. The two models, essentially the same aircraft sized for diferent markets, are part of the Brazilian airframer’s ambi-tious agenda to ofer a product in every major business-jet category.

Embraer filled the entry-level and light-jet niches with its Phenom 100 and 300, the super-midsize and large markets with the Legacy 600/650, and the ultra-large with the Lineage. Now comes the Legacy 500, an aircraft tar-geted for the midsize market but with a cabin closer to super-midsize.

Delayed more than a year by soft-ware issues with its fy-by-wire system,

the 500 is now progressing toward certification in the first half of 2014. Embraer actually rolled out the initial 500 in December 2011, but frst fight did not follow until November 2012 as it worked to address certifcation au-thorities’ lingering concerns about the fight control system.

Now, with three prototypes having logged more than 650 of the planned 1,500 hr. of fight tests, authorities ap-pear impressed by the system, says Embraer test pilot Eduardo Camelier. FAA and European Aviation Safety Agency pilots have fown the aircraft within the past six weeks, he says, and their feedback was positive.

While fight testing has not yet hit the halfway point, Embraer has amassed

4,500 hr. of ground evaluations on its “iron bird” and performed 16,000 hr. of systems testing. A good part of this was accomplished before frst fight, setting

up a smoother test program not only for the 500, but also the 450.

Embraer is checking of key tasks, with test aircraft SN001 undergoing artificial ice-shape trials and sched-uled for avionics and autopilot certif-cation, along with steep approach tests. SN002, which few in February, will be used for natural icing and crosswind tests, along with external noise certif-cation. The aircraft recently completed landing-gear spray trials to evaluate en-gine water-ingestion on a wet runway.

SN003, meanwhile, made the Legacy 500’s frst public appearance at the Eu-ropean Business Aviation Conference and Exhibition in May and will fy to Las Vegas for the National Business Avia-tion Association convention Oct. 22-24. It has undergone avionics and cold-soak tests and is in high-intensity radiated felds and lightning trials now. Future plans include maturity fights, mainte-nance training and simulator validation.

SN004 is on the assembly line at Embraer’s plant here, where both the Legacy 450 and 500 will be built, along with the Phenoms and Legacy 650, which is based on the ERJ 135 regional

Business AviAtion

EmbrAEr

Embraer’s Legacy 500 program is approaching the halfway point in planned fight-test hours with a number of critical tests upcoming.

but if any display fails, it can move to another screen,” Holland says.

The third attitude/heading reference system has been moved out of the MFD into a standby unit “providing a fourth way to fy the aircraft.” Other improve-ments include glass windscreens, cabin and cockpit noise reductions, and anti-skid brakes. The company is beginning a program to add synthetic and en-hanced vision, he says.

Eclipse aims to produce 2-2.5 aircraft a month and “exit 2014 closer to three a month,” says Holland, who adds that the aircraft is “selling at that rate.” The supply chain is back up and running, including Pratt & Whitney Canada PW615F engines and fuselages and empennages from Sikorsky subsidiary PZL-Mielec in Poland.

Wings for the 500 were built by Fuji

in Japan, but Eclipse bought back the tooling and inventory and has enough wings in stock at its Albuquerque, N.M., assembly plant to meet produc-tion plans into 2015. It has not decided where wing manufacturing will resume. “At low production rates, it is easy to do at Albuquerque. At higher rates, PZL makes sense,” says Holland.

A key piece of DayJet, meanwhile, was its ability to operate with no fxed schedule, constantly adjusting operations as customers booked seats or changed plans, while minimizing fights with one or no passengers and operating within constraints such as weather and pilot duty times. To accomplish this, DayJet developed automated operations management software and an optimization engine.

As DayJet neared demise, an out-

side investor saw the potential of its optimization software and bought the code, says Roei Ganzarski, president and COO of Seattle-based BoldIQ. To-day, the company is developing markets inside and outside aviation for its two software platforms.

The operations management soft-ware, with its embedded optimization engine, is already used by charter, aircraft-management and fractional-ownership companies. Now, BoldIQ is targeting truck and taxi feet opera-tors and the energy sector, as well as optimizing computer systems in the health care and information-technol-ogy markets.

A selling point for the system is it produces an operational, not theoreti-cal, solution, Ganzarski says. “[DayJet founder] Ed Iacobucci needed a result

Kerry Lynch Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Embraer aims to expand the

standard for midsize jets



jet. Embraer is still making room for its newest products at the business-jet as-sembly plant, shifting some structures work to its factory in Portugal.

Certifcation of the 450 is expected to follow about a year behind the 500. Marco Tulio Pellegrini, senior vice president and COO of Embraer Ex-ecutive Jets, says it may well fly by year-end. The the fuselage was joined in August and wings were mated in late September.

With about 95% systems commonal-ity, much of the work accomplished on the 500 can roll over to the 450, partic-ularly for iron-bird trials. Some cables and tubing need to be shortened, but the same rig will be used for 450 testing.

Embraer is working toward a com-mon type rating for both aircraft, which are powered by Honeywell HTF7500E turbofans producing 6,500 lb. thrust for the 500 and 6,080 lb. for the 450. The aircraft share the same cockpit with Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion avion-ics. Operating procedures and aircraft handling will be the same, says Augusto Salgado da Rocha, senior manager for product strategy and sales engineering.

The primary diference is the target market. With its fat foor, 6-ft. height and 6-ft. width, the 500 cabin is more comparable to that of a super-midsize aircraft. But Salgado da Rocha stresses, “We aren’t trying to be super-midsized.” That category typically has ranges of 3,400 nm or more, but he says, “we don’t want to go there.” Instead, Embraer is comfortable ofering a 3,000-nm-range

Jens Flottau Frankfurt

Proving The ImpossibleDespite skeptics, VistaJet’s Thomas Flohr

insists the company is for real

The story clearly seems too good to be true. A small, privately owned business jet operator places the

biggest-ever order for large corporate jets and conquers the market with its not-so-unusual business model, while others complain about the continuing crisis in European business aviation.

It is the story of Thomas Flohr, 52, and VistaJet. Flohr, who is still the sole owner of the company, last year placed an order for 142 Bombardier Globals, 56 of which are frm. A commitment on that scale was unheard of in the indus-try, resembling the volumes that might occasionally be seen when the largest

airlines renew their fleets. But it is from VistaJet, an operator of 37 busi-ness jets based in Switzerland. And on top of that order, the company bought 20 Bombardier Challenger 350s.

However, even before the latest Bombardier orders, VistaJet had been facing serious skepticism. The com-pany is generally viewed as a reliable operator, but its many critics in the industry have trouble understanding how the current business can be proft-able. “It is tough to make money for ev-erybody, but the larger the aircraft are, the tougher it gets,” says one industry executive. Contrary to most other play-

he could implement, so we take all the rules, regulations and workfows and produce an optimal operational solution,” he says. Within 60 sec. of a change, the software produces three alternative mitigation and recovery plans, with ripple efects on custom-ers and fnancials. This optimization can reduce business aviation operating cost by 4-16%, he says.

When fractional operator AvantAir, which has since suspended operations, cut its feet to 24 aircraft from 54, it only reduced revenue fights 10%, he says, by using the optimization engine to work aircraft harder and minimize dead-head fights. BoldIQ has yet to break into cor-porate fight departments, but “with six or more aircraft, it makes sense to look at optimization,” says Ganzarski.

“We see four key markets for the op-

timization tool,” he notes, particularly in markets that need to recover quickly from operational disruptions. Beyond continued expansion in business avia-tion, there is optimization of commer-cial airline operations. “They have long-term network planning tools, but are not strong on real-time optimization,” he says. Then there is maintenance, repair and overhaul, “which is a huge real-time disruptive environment.”

There is also the military, and its need to reduce costs and resources. BoldIQ has an agreement with an un-manned-aircraft company to optimize the use of UAVs. “We can increase the missions by 10%, which means they can buy fewer UAVs for the same missions or do more missions,” Ganzarski says.

Looking back, Holland says 2009 was a good time to buy Eclipse, and believes

the aircraft remains game-changing. “It was the frst new aircraft designed post-2000, where others are 1960s and 1970s redesigns. It was designed using the newest technology out there and is the most cost-efective way of carrying a payload relative to its thrust, speed and range,” he says. “In private aviation, 70% of all personal business travel in-volves three or fewer people fying 750 nautical miles or less. The Eclipse can carry four people and fy 1,250 nautical miles. It easily meets the need.”

The problem with the “old” Eclipse was not the aircraft, but “a bad fnan-cial plan,” says Holland. “They got there from a product viewpoint, but not fnancially. They spent too much too quickly—I like to say they spent $1.4 billion on a $700 million efort—and the markets turned on them.” c

midsize aircraft with the frst full fy-by-wire system in the category. The goal, he says, is to “create a new standard for the segment” with its cabin. The same holds true for the 450, which is shorter but has the same fat foor and cross-section, and nearly 2,300-nm range.

Embraer is not providing details

on sales of the 500, which is priced at $18.4 million, more than $1 million less than Cessna’s Citation X, but $1 million more than Bombardier’s new Learjet 85. It is also mum on the 450, priced at $15.25 million, just above Cessna’s new Latitude that will compete head-on with the smaller Legacy. c



ers, VistaJet owns its aircraft rather than just managing them, so its fnan-cial exposure and the investment need-ed is much greater. Also, empty ferry fights between long-haul destinations often pose a great financial burden. Contributing to the risk is the difcult access to cabotage rights in emerging markets such as China. And then, add the very costly Global order to all these potential obstacles. “Everybody asks how they are going to finance that,” says one observer.

Flohr says he could not be more relaxed. “I’m quite happy that my competitors still don’t get how our business model works,” he tells Avia-tion Week. VistaJet is funding the acquisitions partly through cash fow generated by operations and partly through commercial bank loans. Ac-cording to its founder, the company can actually “pick and choose” banks because demand to make deals with it

outstrips its needs. Since deliveries are stretched so far out, not all of the giant order has been fnanced yet, but Flohr says he is making sure that fnancing is in place well in advance.

The company carried 25,000 pas-sengers last year and few 10,000 in-ternational trips in 2012. Revenue has been growing by 20-25% annually and is estimated to have reached around $400 million last year. Because Vista-Jet is a privately held company, it does not disclose fnancial data. It guaran-tees customers an aircraft with 24-hr. notice, and typically sells chunks of 50, 100 or 200 hr. that must be fown within a defned period.

VistaJet’s strategy initially has been to go into the operationally difcult but lucrative niches. Its jets fy from Cen-tral Asia to sub-Saharan Africa to con-nect emerging markets that cannot be reached efciently using commercial airlines and where its own competitors lack know-how, experience and scale. What Flohr is betting on is that the model works in the more mainstream markets as well. The Wheels Up/Jet Aviation deal reached last month gives VistaJet real access to the big-gest executive jet market by far—the U.S.—which is the “missing link,” Flohr notes. About half of the feet of

Globals that is due to arrive starting in mid-2014 will be allocated to the U.S. operation, illustrating how massively important that agreement will be.

In the next two years, VistaJet will take delivery of 24 Globals, including 12 in 2014 and another 12 a year later. Flohr is convinced that options will also be converted. “We need to see the take-up of the aircraft,” he says. “It’s a lot of planes, but if all comes through . . . .”

Whether or not VistaJet can grow as quickly as hoped will depend on its ability to obtain air operator cer-tifcates (AOC) in the key markets it wants to penetrate. The company has had early success in getting access to Russia and Nigeria, and now the U.S. has been added. One country that is taking longer than expected is China.

Flohr had hoped to have reached

an agreement with Air China afliate Beijing Airlines by now that would have been similar to the deal with Jet Aviation in the U.S., mainly because “it takes longer to do it on your own,” he says. But negotiations have been tedious and VistaJet is now working on an alternative solution involving an-other partner. “We have not made the progress we wanted,” he concedes, but talks are continuing in parallel.

A Chinese AOC would enable Vista-Jet to not only move customers to and from China, but also within the coun-try. Three Globals are set to be based there. After an eventual approval by the Chinese authorities, India is next on Flohr’s list, a project that is to be started in the second half of 2014. And even further out, he plans to devote his attention to improving access to the Latin American market, which is still small, but growing rapidly. Flohr says he wants to deal with these projects “one at a time.”

VistaJet’s current feet of 37 aircraft is to grow to 55-60 by the end of 2015. All of the Learjet 60s will be phased out by the middle of 2014, clearly posi-

Business AviAtion

tioning the company at the high end of the market with Challenger 350s and Globals.

Flohr argues that the fact that Vista-Jet owns its aircraft is a big advantage over management-only companies that can have aircraft pulled by their own-ers at the last minute, leaving them scrambling to fnd replacement capac-ity for frmly booked missions.

However, ownership also means VistaJet has more asset risk and needs to keep utilization high. Par-ticularly in the early stages of its development, with a relatively small feet, fying empty runs between two revenue flights has also been a risk factor. Flohr says that is diminishing as the feet and customer bases grow, though, and the company’s operational and marketing fexibility increases as

it receives more AOCs and gains bet-ter market access.

Despite the startup challenges, Flohr insists that “we have been sig-nifcantly proftable from day one.”

Continuous adjustment of its feet structure is also part of the model. The company typically sells its air-craft after 4-5 years, just before the manufacturer’s warranty expires, reducing its exposure to expensive unscheduled maintenance. Neverthe-less, the pricing and depreciation risk of owning aircraft remain. For the mo-ment, Flohr sees a “signifcant aircraft devaluation at the small end of the market” but a “continuing pickup of [Bombardier] Global demand,” leading to a “signifcant improvement in val-ues.” It is too soon to tell what will hap-pen to business aircraft values if the number in service grows as strongly as expected in the coming years. But Flohr argues that “we are not counting on reselling aircraft.” Also, taking the company public is not in the plans at the moment. “We don’t need to raise cash to fnance multi-billion [euro] in-vestments.” c

VistaJet has placed large orders for business jets to support its

growth in key markets, including the U.S. and China.

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Doubling DownFate of tiltrotor technology

lies largely with ArmyÕs FVL plans

Will the U.S. Army, the Pen-tagon’s largest consumer of rotorcraft, ever buy into

tiltrotor technology in its pursuit of a replacement for the workhorse Black Hawk and Apache feets?

John Garrison, CEO of Bell Heli-copter—builder of the most successful tilt rotor, which is capable of taking of and landing vertically but fying like an aircraft—is betting that the Army will.

The company already has a foot in the door. The Army recently gave Bell a contract to develop its tiltotor tech-

nology for the Joint Multirole (JMR) Technology Demonstration project; the results will help the service decide how to proceed with a Sikorsky Black Hawk and Boeing Apache replace-ment. Sikorsky(teamed with Boeing), Karem Aircraft and AVX Aircraft are also working under similar, nine-month contracts to refine initial designs in preparation for a fscal year 2017 fight demonstration if the Army can aford it.

Data from the JMR demo are ex-pected to feed into the Army’s plans for the Future Vertical Lift (FVL) ef-fort. Though FVL is divided into sepa-rate sizes and classes of helicopters, the contract for FVL-medium—slated

to replace the Black Hawk and Apache feets—will likely be the frst to be com-peted. It will also be the largest single tranche of FVL work and likely set the competitive landscape for rotorcraft in the U.S. for decades to come.

Boeing, Bell’s decades-long partner on the V-22 tiltrotor for the U.S. Marine Corps and Air Force, sees a very difer-ent future for rotorcraft. In a surprise move earlier this year, Boeing aban-doned its longtime Osprey partner Bell, which was developing the V-280 Valor, a new tiltrotor, for the Army require-

ment. Garrison says the V-280 will cost half as much as the V-22 Osprey, or roughly $35 million a unit at peak pro-duction for the roughly 4,000 aircraft run, addressing some of the critics who say the Osprey is cost-prohibitive.

Instead, Boeing has switched sides and is backing Sikorsky’s plan to pur-sue a compound helicopter design based on Sikorsky’s X2 work with co-axial rotors. AVX plans to build a 70% scale demonstrator of its compound helicopter design.

Karem, designer of the Predator and A-160 Hummingbird unmanned aircraft, shares Garrison’s view that a tiltrotor is the best option. His compa-

ny is building the TR36TD demonstra-tor, an optimum-speed tiltrotor.

Under JMR, the Army hopes to experiment with aircraft capable of fying 230 kt.; the Valor is expected to exceed that by 50 kt.

The approaches taken by Garrison and Karem are gutsy. The Army has a tattered history with tiltrotor technol-ogy, helping to back the XV-3 tiltrotor demonstrator in the 1950s and XV-15 demonstrator project in the 1970s; the latter eventually led to the V-22 design. But, the Army ultimately stuck with conventional helicopter models for its diverse missions—the UH-60, AH-64, CH-47 and OH-58 families.

The V-22 moved forward only for the U.S. Marine Corps with a program of 360 aircraft and another 50 for Air Force Special Operations. A notional requirement of 48 for the U.S. Navy has still not been formalized. So, til-trotor technology remains a niche ca-pability of combined speed and large payload. Without a volume buy, such as the Army’s FVL-medium program could provide for the V-280, Bell can-not make good on the promise of com-bining speed with afordability.

Largely due to its high cost, the V-22 has not yet garnered a foreign sale, though Bell/Boeing ofcials have said for years they are close to their frst. The likely frst customer would be Israel, with the United Arab Emir-ates expected to follow. Japan is also considered a serious prospect.

The average price for the V-22 for the U.S. Marine Corps in fiscal 2012 was $67 million. That is sliding up to a $70 million target price under the recently signed $6.5 billion Multiyear 2 agree-ment for 99 aircraft for the Pentagon, according to Col. Greg. Masiello, former V-22 program manager. Ninety-two will go to the Marines, with the balance for the Air Force.

Though USMC and industry ofcials previously targeted a per-unit price below $60 million, early manufactur-ing challenges, the Pentagon’s order volume and unrealized foreign sales all have pushed costs higher.

Masiello expects foreign sales could reach 100 aircraft in 10 years, but Gar-rison acknowledges that each country is only likely to buy 8-10 units, so it will take a group of orders to move the nee-dle on the production line.

Garrison says that advances since the V-22 was designed in the 1980s bol-ster his claim that the V-280 can come

Army AviAtion

Bell is betting that the superior speed of the V-280’s design will win support from the U.S. Army.

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in at half the cost. “We know we can take significant cost out of the wing and the wing design and the fuselage and fuselage design and the drive and drive design . . . since the time the V-22 was developed,” he notes, adding that advances in manufacturing composite materials also would lower costs. The V-280’s design calls for the engine to be fxed horizontally on the wing with the rotor and drive system located in the tilting pod. This allows for troops to use a side door, rather than relying solely on the rear door as with the Osprey.

Aside from the V-22 and Huey work (the UH-1Y and AH-1Z), Bell’s military work is minimal. Doubling down on the promise of vertical lift and speed found in the tiltrotor is risky.

Garrison acknowledges that the ultimate winner of the FVL-medium competition will dominate the domes-tic military rotorcraft market for the foreseeable future and be a shoo-in for a vast international market. “If you look at the scope and magnitude [of FVL-medium], it is the [Joint Strike Fighter]

for the rotorcraft space . . . It has the po-tential to be a signifcant consolidating event in the industry just like [F-35] on the fghter side,” Garrison tells Aviation Week. The winner “will ultimately re-place the existing portfolio of rotorcraft products, just like the JSF is going to replace the F-15s [and] the F-18s. It will be the vertical-lift asset of the future.”

FVL is unlikely to move forward until the 2020s, as the Army struggles with budget cuts and awaits the outcome of the JMR demonstrations. In the mean-time, Bell is hoping to widen its tiltrotor

Army AviAtion

Tony Osborne London

Foreign PursuitsSuppliers of Army helicopters are building

closer ties to develop export opportunities

Export customers are playing a key role in shoring up produc-tion for the wave of U.S. Army

helicopters entering service.The U.S. Army is openly widening

its pursuit of Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programs, closely engaging with the manufacturers in pushing Boeing’s AH-64E Apache and the CH-47F Chinook, as well as Sikorsky’s UH-60M Black Hawk, in a bid to help secure the Army’s multiyear buys and the economies of scale needed to de-liver lower per-unit prices.

“Both the Apache and Chinook pro-grams have the greatest percentage of international market space of any of our programs in the defense sector,” says Leanne Caret, vice president and general manager of vertical lift at Boe-ing. “Selling globally involves a lot of time. If you are dealing with 20 difer-ent countries, each with diferent feet sizes—maybe of eight or ten aircraft—that’s not enough to keep a production line open on its own, so it is really that combination of the U.S. [sales] base with the international sales that makes it afordable.”

Caret notes the company has en-joyed a close relationship with the Army as it pursues international sales with an ever-wider group of countries. Currently, 18 nations operate the CH-47 Chinook, but new opportunities in-clude sales to four additional countries as well as supplying additional aircraft to 11 more, resulting in direct commer-cial (DCS) and foreign military sales of

some 150 helicopters to international customers. On the Apache, Boeing has currently sold aircraft to 12 nations, but this will soon increase with sales to India and South Korea, which have both selected the aircraft. The govern-ment of Indonesia is also considering an order for eight Apaches.

“On that weapons system, countries have the same desire for the same capa-bilities, and a partnership with the U.S. Army helps to construct that,” Caret ex-plains. Boeing also points to the Chinook, for which it says it has “proactively” thought about the potential for interna-tional sales and planned those into the option quantities within the multiyear contracts. The one signed in June in-cludes 155 aircraft and 60 options.

“With those options, we are able to work collectively and collaboratively with the Army and identify where this would fall on a country-by-country per-spective,” says Caret.

“The multiyear contracts bring sta-bility for the next fve years, and what we want to do is make certain that we are working with the U.S. Army and generating that interest, which will bring that further stability.

“Where the beneft comes in is from the supply chain and from our own production rate,” Caret notes. “The greater the stability in the supply chain, whether it is at our level as the OEM or within the supply base, then they [customers] are going to continue to see the benefts.

“Regardless of whether it is a DCS

customer base with a long-anticipated U.S. Navy order of Ospreys.

The V-22 is one of two candidates for a C-2 Greyhound replacement for the Navy’s Carrier Onboard Delivery (COD) mission. It is up against an upgraded C-2 proposed by Northrop Grumman. But, Bell/Boeing will have to infuence the requirements and procurement strategy processes to allow for the at-tributes of the V-22 to be taken into

account, given its higher cost. Based solely on unit cost, the V-22 has little chance, even though its fying-hour cost has decreased by 19% to $9,250.

“There is no development cost [with the V-22.] To get a new COD . . . there is going to be signifcant development dollars” needed, Garrison says. “If you look at the up-front acquisition cost when you compare [the V-22] to an H-60, it looks expensive. But, if you

Bell Helicopter CEO John Garrison



look at the capabilities of what it can perform, it doesn’t look as expensive.”

Bell’s strategy will be to argue that the V-22 can handle direct delivery mis-sions, or hauling cargo and personnel direct from a land base to a variety of ships—including those with smaller decks. An upgraded C-2, by contrast, would rely on the arrested landing and catapult takeof systems on the large-deck aircraft carriers to move cargo. As

with the C-2s today, the cargo is then ferried to ships from the carrier via conventional helicopters.

An eventual Army buy-in for the V-280 could be the impetus to drive til-trotors into the commercial market, ex-plains Garrison; the V-22’s high cost pre-vented it from penetrating that market.

“When you start getting to the vol-umes you are talking about here, now you are getting to a price point where I

think the ultimate capability of a tiltro-tor in a commercial application could be viable,” he says.

Until 2009, Bell had been teamed with AgustaWestland on the AW609, which is targeted primarily for the nonmilitary market. AgustaWestland is continuing work on the project, though it has not captured wide sales appeal. c

With Graham Warwick in Washington

have been ftted with a Thales cock-pit to align them with the rest of the U.K. Chinook fleet. Opportunities also exist in Libya, possibly through Boeing’s marketing agreement with AgustaWestland to support sales of the Chinook in other regions. Poten-tial sales may also come from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as with follow-up orders from Morocco, Egypt and the UAE.

Sales of the Apache have also grown significantly, particularly since the launch of the Block 3 program, now AH-64E, with Middle Eastern custom-ers ordering upgrades and enlarging existing feets. Saudi Arabia is set to become the second-largest operator of the type, with orders from the land forces, national guard and royal guard. The United Arab Emirates is also re-questing 30 upgrades for its existing Longbow Apache feet, and another 30 new-build aircraft.

Further opportunities may emerge from Qatar, which has requested 24 aircraft. South Korea’s heavy attack helicopter program has ordered 36 AH-64Es, while Boeing is the preferred

or FMS sale, we will always partner with the Army, because we don’t want to catch them off-guard, and many times the customers don’t always re-alize what is involved in setting up a new operation.”

Production of CH-47Fs for the Army is scheduled to end in 2019, but deliveries of the upgraded Block 2 air-craft are planned to begin in 2020, and it is expected that the Army will up-grade all of its Chinooks to Block 2. At the same time, international sales are expected to increase, and while Boe-ing is projecting deliveries to dip to 40 aircraft in 2020 from today’s level of around 55 a year, it is forecasting that annual production could climb to above 70 by 2023.

Chinook sales have been generally a mix of DCS and FMS. DCS contracts allow the customers to modify the aircraft for their specifc needs. For example, Canada’s 15 new CH-147Fs will be among the most advanced Chinooks, featuring a new cockpit avionics suite and a new electrical system centered on two new 60 KvA generators. The U.K.’s Chinook Mk6s

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bidder in India’s attack helicopter pro-gram, for 22 aircraft. Eight have also been requested by the government of Indonesia as it works to strengthen its armed forces. Boeing has also de-livered Block 3 Apaches to the Taiwan-ese Army—the customer once known as “Sky Eagle.”

Most of these purchases will be com-pleted through the FMS system, be-cause those nations want the close asso-ciation with the U.S. Army. Boeing does ofer the option of delivering Apaches through direct commercial sales; but the purchase of mission equipment and weapons has to go through the FMS system, often resulting in the en-tire package—including aircraft—being delivered through the FMS process.

Sikorsky is also pushing its UH-60M Black Hawk, achieving FMS and DCS sales for the model in Bahrain, Mexico, Sweden, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as part of the wider sale of helicop-ters to the Saudi land forces and na-tional guard. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) also has FMS prospects for Qatar, Taiwan and Thailand. c

Canada’s new CH-147Fs are among the most advanced Chinook variants.



Michael Bruno Washington

Guard UpThe U.S. Army and Air Force are embracing

the National Guard even more, like it or not

For the U.S. Army and Air Force, it is still far from their state-militia origins, but it could be a big step

back to the beginning. After surging active forces to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the two armed services are considering restructuring and relying more on state-based National Guard units as a way to meet federal spending caps.

For Pentagon leaders, it is a reluc-tant—albeit viable—way to live with increasingly impenetrable annual spending ceilings under the 2011 Bud-get Control Act, which threatens near-ly across-the-board cuts automatically.

But for state governors and delega-tions to Congress, the transition would be a welcome move to protect local jobs and economic benefits such as with Army National Guard Sikorsky UH-72A light utility helicopters or Air National Guard Alenia Aermacchi C-27J light airlifters. That is especially true as USAF leaders push for elimination of Guard-based weapons like the C-27J or A-10 to help meet the budget law’s caps or its sequestration of funds (AW&ST Oct. 7, p. 54).

To be sure, the Guard will take a hit under the budget law, as will active and reserve forces. Under nascent plans re-vealed last month by the Army chief of staf, the service will fall from a wartime high of 570,000 active soldiers, 358,000 guardsmen and 205,000 in the reserves to no more than 420,000, 315,000 and 185,000, respectively. Altogether this

represents a total Army end-strength reduction of more than 18% over seven years, with 26% and 9% reductions in active and reserve forces, and 12% in the Army National Guard.

Guardsmen, proponents assert, cost about one-third what an active soldier or airman costs—but that is because they are mobilized far less. Pentagon ofcials note that guardsmen cost the same re-gardless of whether they are activated; moreover, their training and equipment are provided by Washington. At the same time, less training and mobilization means lower readiness and profciency.

Consequently, when pressed by lawmakers, Army Gen. Raymond Odi-erno, the chief of staf, explains why he is resisting calls to cut even more ac-tive soldiers while either cutting fewer guardsmen or even growing their ranks. “We’re taking a 26% reduction in the active component and only 12% re-duction in the National Guard, so I have taken [costs and capabilities] into con-sideration,” he says. “But to go further than that is very dangerous because you lose the immediate readiness that you have with the active component.

“I’ve got to have the right number of active and I’ve got to have the right depth that’s provided by the National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve,” he con-tinues. “It’s not one or the other, and you can’t compare costs because they provide diferent capabilities based on the dollars that they are given, obvious-ly, and the time that they have to train.”

The Air Force chief of staff, Gen. Mark Welsh, agrees. “You just have to balance how far you can go in each mis-sion area,” he says. “We’re looking at a by-type aircraft [Guard or federal unit assignment] even within those mission areas, because you do hit a point where your operational capability or your ability to respond quickly are impact-ed. And it’s diferent in every mission, from space to mobility to fghters.”

But the National Governors Associa-tion (NGA) remains unsatisfed. “Given that the Air National Guard also pro-vides 35% of total Air Force capabilities for only 6% of the total Air Force bud-get, the governors believe more should have been done to leverage the National Guard’s cost-efectiveness and high lev-el of skill rather than continuing to view the Air National Guard as the bill-payer to protect the active component,” says Heather Hogsett, staf director for the NGA’s Committee on Health and Home-land Security.

Like the U.S., the U.K. also is look-ing to lean more on its reserve units for the same reasons. Reservists form just 16% of British armed forces now, but in its long-awaited “white paper,” the 2010 Strategic Defense and Secu-rity Review, the defense ministry set out plans to make increased use of re-serves. In its Army 2020 plans, part of its wider Future Force 2020 initiative, the ministry aims to reduce regular force levels to 82,000 and raise reserv-ist numbers to 30,000, plowing almost $3 billion (£1.8 billion) into reservist operations—promising a higher level of training, much closer to the levels provided to regular troops.

The changes result from a need to provide capabilities that the regular British army cannot aford to sustain, such as medical specialties, but also the need to use specialists from the civilian workforce, in areas such as information technology. Still, the min-istry faces a challenge in urging private employers to release the personnel required for operations given the bur-den of training and, increasingly, the shorter reaction times governments face when intervening domestically and internationally. c

—With Tony Osborne in London

Army AviAtion

National Guard equipment and personnel, like this C-27J and its crew, bring eagerly sought local jobs and economic benefts.

U.S. DefenSe Department


In what is an unusual set of circumstances, the commercial aircraft industry is fight testing three large passenger air-craft at the same time. The Airbus A350 has been fying since mid-June and ac-

cording to all ofcial accounts, all is going well in the program as the aircraft has exceeded the 250-hr. mark. Then, in late September, the much-delayed Bombardier CSeries took of for the frst time and since, has been slowly ramping up its test campaign. And fnally, the stretched Boeing 787-9 has also started trials. As a derivative of an aircraft in service, it is expected to have the easiest ride.

But the buzz demonstrates that the commercial aircraft indus-try is entering another phase in which even more-efcient wide-body and narrowbody aircraft are entering the market. Much of the investment, at least in the Western part of the aerospace industry, is going into the long-haul market, where, Airbus saw a need to replace its obsolete A340 family and Boeing believed it should react by proceeding with the 777X. That aircraft has

already received its frst conditional order from Lufthansa, and is expected to be launched at the Dubai Airshow in November with at least one additional large order from Emirates.

The battle in the widebody feld can also be seen in product refnements as Airbus has launched a regional version of the A330 and will possibly commit to a shorter-range A350 to counter the 787-10.

In the narrowbody feld, Airbus and Boeing appear to have secured their lead over planned new competitors such as the Comac C919 and the United Aircraft Corp. MS-21, both of which are continuing to incur serious delays. The A320neo has a substantial market share advantage over the Boeing 737 MAX, but it is too soon to say how long that will last. Aggres-sive pricing by the incumbents has also prevented Bombardier from making serious inroads into the mainline market with its CSeries. However, that might change if and when airlines gain more confdence in the product as the fight-test program progresses.

One area that is being watched with interest by many air-lines is in the turboprop segment, as to whether ATR will launch a 90-seater. ATR is hoping for board approval soon, but shareholder EADS is concerned that there will not be enough engineering resources.

The following profles were compiled by Forecast Interna-tional, which is also a resource for Aerospace 2014, which is to be published as a double issue dated Dec. 30, 2013/Jan. 6, 2014.

— Jens Flottau

Effciency Is King

Prepared in conjunction with Forecast International Inc., Newtown, Conn. For more information, contact Ray Peterson, Fore cast International’s vice president for research and editorial services at +1 (203) 426-0800, or email him at [email protected]

Airbus A318 The A318 is a twin-engine, 107-132 passenger narrowbody jetliner. Initial fight occurred in January

2002. The European Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA) certifed the A318 (with CFM56 engines) in May 2003; this was

followed by FAA certifcation in June of that year. Deliveries began in July 2003 and continued through 2012, Airbus

had produced 78 A318s. The A318 is powered by two 21,600-23,800-lb.-thrust turbofan engines, either the Pratt &

Whitney PW6000 or CFM56-5B. Primary competition includes the Embraer 190 and 195, and Bombardier CSeries.

Nine additional A318s in the ACJ318 corporate model are forecast for production through 2022.

Airbus A319/A320/A321 These models, along with the A318, make up the Airbus A320 family of twin-turbo-

fan, narrowbody airliners. The initial model in the series was the A320, which made its frst fight in February 1987.

A320 deliveries began in 1988, followed by the stretched A321 in 1994 and the A319, a shortened variant of the

A320, in 1996. All three original models are available with either CFM56 or International Aero Engines V2500 pow-

erplants. The A319 typically seats 124 passengers, the A320 carries 150, and the A321 seats 185. Through 2012,

Airbus produced 1,357 A319s, 3,192 A320s and 775 A321s. The direct competition for the A320 family includes

the Boeing 737 series and Bombardier CSeries. In December 2010, Airbus launched the New Engine Option (NEO)

line of re-engined A320 family aircraft. These variants are offered with either Pratt & Whitney PW1100G or CFM Inter-

national Leap-1A engines. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2015. Airbus will continue to offer its baseline A319/

A320/A321 models (with the traditional engine options) alongside the NEO versions. Including baseline and NEO

models, production of 5,194 A319/A320/A321 aircraft is forecast from 2013 through 2022.

Airbus A330 Airbus developed the A330 twin-engine, widebody commercial passenger transport to replace

aircraft such as the A300, DC-10-10 and L-1011. An A330 prototype frst few in November 1992, with customer

deliveries following in December 1993. Customers have a choice of turbofan engines in the 64,000-72,000-lb.-

thrust class: the GE CF6-80E1, Pratt & Whitney PW4000 or Rolls-Royce Trent 700. Three A330 models are avail-

able. The A330-300 seats 335 passengers in two classes, or 295 in three classes. The A330-200 seats 293 in

two classes, or 253 in three. Deliveries of the third model, the A330-200F freighter, began in 2010. Through 2012,

481 A330-200s, 440 A330-300s and 17 A330-200Fs were produced. Production of 480 A330 series aircraft is

forecast for 2013-22, with production likely phasing out during that time-frame. The direct competitors are the

Boeing 767 and 787.

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT UPDATE

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Airbus A340 The A340 is a four-engine, intercontinental, widebody commercial transport aircraft. A prototype

few in October 1991, and deliveries began in January 1993. The A340-200 and-300 were certifcated by the JAA in

December 1992 and FAA in February 1993. Both models are powered by four 31,200-34,000-lb.-thrust CFM56-

5C4 turbofan engines. Two newer models, the longer-range A340-500 and stretched A340-600, are powered by

Rolls-Royce Trent 500 engines. Typical seating patterns for the -200, -300, -500 and -600 are 262, 295, 313 and

380 passengers, respectively. Airbus delivered 377 A340s through 2012.

Airbus A350 Currently in fight testing, the A350 is a twin-engine, widebody jetliner intended to compete with

Boeing’s 777 and 787. The A350 is powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines rated in the 75,000-97,000-lb.-

thrust range, and will have a cruise speed of around Mach 0.85. Three basic versions are being marketed: the

-800, -900 and -1000. Depending on the version, the A350 will seat 270-350 passengers, and will have a range

of 8,100-8,500 nm. An ultra-long-range version, the A350-900R, and a freighter, the A350-900F, are also planned.

The A350’s maiden fight occurred last June. The frst A350-900s slated to enter service in the second half of 2014.

Forecast International projects 974 A350s will be produced through 2022.

Airbus A380 In developing the 525-passenger A380, Airbus chose to leap past Boeing’s 747 in capacity class.

Boeing markets the 747-8 to indirectly compete with the A380, but no direct competition to the A380 exists in the

500-plus-seat market. The A380 is powered by four turbofan engines rated 70,000-76,500 lb. thrust each, and can

be outftted with either the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 or GE/Pratt & Whitney Engine Alliance GP7200. Airbus currently

produces only a passenger version of the A380. First fight occurred in 2005, with 101 A380s produced through

2012. Production of 292 A380s is forecast for 2013-22.

Airbus Military C212 The C212 made its frst fight in March 1971, and deliveries began in May 1974. It is

currently built in Indonesia by Indonesian Aerospace (IAe). Some 477 C212s (of all versions) were produced in

Spain and Indonesia through 2012. The C212 is an unpressurized, 21-28-passenger regional twin-turboprop. The

C212-200 is powered by Honeywell TPE331-10R-511C or -512C turboprop engines rated 900 shp each. The C212-

300 used TPE331-10R-513C turboprops, also rated 900 shp each. The latest production model, the C212-400, is

equipped with TPE331-12JR-701C engines rated 925 shp each. In addition to building the NC212-200, IAe has

also assumed production and fnal assembly responsibility for the C212-400. Airbus Military and IAe launched a

joint effort in November 2012 to develop an improved C212 version, dubbed the NC212i. Derived from the C212-

400, the NC212i is expected to feature reduced weight and new digital avionics. It will accommodate 28 passen-

gers, compared to 25 in the current C212-400. The NC212i will be certifed by a supplement to the existing C212

type certifcate, with development and certifcation efforts scheduled to last about 24 months. IAe is to perform fnal

assembly of the NC212i. Forecast International expects production of 27 C212-400 and NC212i aircraft for the

civil market from 2013 through 2022.

Aircraft Industries L-410 The 15-19-passenger L-410 is an unpressurized, twin-turboprop regional/utility

transport aircraft. The current production L-410UVP-E20 is powered by two GE M601 engines. Under development is

an improved variant called the L-410 NG that will feature GE H80 engines, Avio AV 725 fve-blade propellers, a new

wing and a new glass cockpit. As a frst step toward development of the NG model, Aircraft Industries is integrating

the H80 engine and the AV 725 propellers into the L-410UVP-E20. More than 1,100 L-410s have been produced;

126 are forecast for production during the next 10 years.

Antonov An-28/An-38/PZL Mielec M28 The An-28 and An-38 are twin-turboprop utility/transport aircraft.

First fight of the An-28 occurred in 1969, with temporary Soviet certifcation following in 1978 and full certifca-

tion in 1986. A westernized version of the An-28, the PZL Mielec M28, made its frst fight in 1993 and received

FAA certifcation in 2004. A stretched An-28 version, the An-38, made its frst fight in 1994 and received Russian

certifcation in 1997. The An-28 is powered by two PZL Rzeszow TWD-10B/PZL-10S engines, with the Pratt & Whitney

Canada PT6A-65B powering the M28. Honeywell TPE331-14GR turboprops power the An-38-100/-120 models,

while Omsk TVD-20 engines equip the An-38-200 variant. Some 194 An-28s, 62 M28s and nine An-38s were

produced through 2012. The An-28 and An-38 are no longer in production, while the M28 is being built. Its principal

competition comes from the Aircraft Industries L-410 and the Viking Air Twin Otter. Nine civil M28s are forecast for

production through 2022.

Antonov An-124/An-225 The An-124 is a four-engine, intercontinental-range, heavy-lift cargo transport, and

the An-225 is a six-engine, heavy-lift jet that was designed to carry the Soviet shuttle orbiter Buran. Initial fight of a

production An-124 prototype took place in 1982, and commercial operation began in 1986. The An-124 is powered

by four Ivchenko-Progress D-18T turbofan engines, while the An-225 uses six. Fifty-fve An-124s and one An-225

have been produced.



Antonov An-148 The An-148 is a twin-engine regional jet designed to serve the 70-80-seat market. First fight

took place in 2004, with type certifcation by Russia and Ukraine in 2007. Power for the aircraft comes from two

Ivchenko-Progress D436-148 turbofan engines. Two test aircraft and 15 production aircraft were produced

through 2012, and an additional 60 are forecast for production through 2022. The An-158, a 99-passenger ver-

sion that is also powered by D436-148s, frst few in 2010.

ATR 42/ATR 72 The ATRs are turboprop-powered regional transport aircraft built by a joint venture of EADS and

Alenia Aermacchi. The ATR 42’s frst delivery occurred in 1985, followed by the ATR 72 in 1989. The latest versions

are the ATR 42-600 and ATR 72-600. Both -600 variants are powered by a pair of Pratt & Whitney PW127M engines,

rated 2,400-2,750 shp each. Through 2012, 422 ATR 42s and 611 ATR 72s were delivered. Production of 668

ATRs is forecast for the 2013-22 period.

Beechcraft King Air Beech launched the King Air series of 8-12-seat, twin-turboprop aircraft in 1963. Since

then, numerous variants have appeared. Total production 6,314 through 2012. Beechcraft currently markets the King

Air C90GTx, King Air 250 and King Air 350i. The C90GTx is powered by two Pratt & Whitney PT6A-135 turboprops

producing 550 shp each; the 250 by PT6A-52s rated at 850 shp each; and the 350i by 1,050-shp PT6A-60As.

Some 1,286 King Airs are expected to be produced in the 2013-22 period.

Boeing 737 The 737 series is a family of twin-engine, narrowbody commercial transports. Seating capacity var-

ies depending on model, though the most typical two-class confgurations are 126 passengers for the 737-700,

162 for the 737-800 and 180 for the 737-900ER. All three models, which are the current production versions, are

powered by two CFM56-7 turbofans. The frst 737 few in April 1967 and received FAA certifcation in December

1967. Through 2012, 7,437 Boeing 737s have rolled off the production lines. In response to the A320neo, Boeing

launched its re-engining program, dubbed 737 MAX, in August 2011. The aircraft will feature CFM International

Leap-1B engines. Assembly of the frst MAX test aircraft is planned for 2015, with frst fight in 2016. Service

entry is scheduled for 2017 with launch customer Southwest Airlines, which has ordered 150 aircraft in a yet-to-

be-announced mix of 737-7 and 737-8 models. The company is projected to manufacture 4,814 737s during

the 2013-22 forecast period. The 737 competes directly with the Airbus A320 family as well as the Bombardier

CSeries.

Boeing 747 The 747 is an intercontinental widebody commercial transport aircraft powered by four turbofan

engines. First fight and certifcation occurred in 1969. In February 2010, Boeing conducted the maiden fight of the

747-8 series, which includes the 747-8 Intercontinental passenger model and 747-8 Freighter. Both are equipped

with four GE GEnx engines rated 66,500 lb. thrust each. The 747-8I is stretched 5.6 meters (18.4 ft.) compared

to the 747-400, to accommodate 467 seats in a three-class confguration. The frst 747-8F delivery, to launch

customer Cargolux, occurred in September 2011. Through 2012, Boeing delivered 40 747-8s and 1,418 747s of

earlier types, including 694 747-400s. Production of 99 747-8s is forecast for 2013-22. The primary competitor

is the Airbus A380.

Boeing 767 The prototype for this twin-engine, widebody commercial transport was rolled out in August 1981,

with frst fight the following month; through 2012, Boeing produced 1,108 767s. Only two civil 767 versions are

currently in production: the extended range 767-300ER passenger model and -300F freighter. The 767-300ER seats

218 in a three-class layout or up to 350 in one class and has a maximum range of 5,990 nm. The -300ER is avail-

able with a choice of GE CF6-80C2 or Pratt & Whitney PW4000 engines. The -300F is powered by the CF6-80C2.

Boeing’s new 787 will essentially replace the 767 in the company’s commercial airliner product line. Exclusive of

militarized models, production of approximately 106 767s is forecast for 2013-22.

Boeing 777 The 777 is a twin-engine, widebody jetliner. First fight occurred in June 1994, followed by FAA/JAA

certifcation in April 1995 (Pratt & Whitney-powered version). Deliveries began in June 1995. The 777-200ER seats

301-440 passengers, and is powered by two PW4000, Trent 800 or GE90 turbofans rated 84,000-95,000 lb. thrust

each. Two newer versions are the 777-200LR and -300ER. The -200LR, which seats 301 in three classes, is powered

by a pair of 110,100-lb.-thrust GE90-110B1 or 115,300-lb.-thrust GE90-115BL turbofans. The -300ER seats 386

people in three classes, and is equipped with 115,300-lb.-thrust GE90-115B engines. A freighter variant, based on

the -200LR, is also available. Boeing is currently developing new, improved 777X versions. A total of 1,066 777s

were produced through 2012, and production of another 980 is forecast in the 2013-22 period. The new Airbus

A350 is the 777’s main competition.




Boeing 787 The 787 Dreamliner is a family of twin-engine widebody airliners with three versions. The 787-8 car-

ries 210-250 passengers and has a range of 7,650-8,200 nm. The 787-9, lengthened by six meters (20 ft.), carries

250-290 passengers and has a range of 8,000-8,500 nm. The 787-10 is stretched another 5.5 meters beyond

the 787-9. All three models are sold with either two Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 or General Electric GEnx turbofans. The

Dreamliner received FAA and European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certifcation in August 2011, followed by deliv-

ery to Japan’s All Nippon Airways of the frst 787-8 the following month. Deliveries of the 787-9 to launch customer

Air New Zealand are expected to begin in mid-2014. Production of 1,396 787 aircraft is forecast through 2022.

The Dreamliner’s main competition is the Airbus A350.

Bombardier CRJ Series The CRJ series is a family of twin-engine, 44-100-seat regional jets. The initial model

was the 50-seat CRJ100, which frst few in May 1991; deliveries began in October 1992. The CRJ100 was replaced

by the 50-seat CRJ200, which is powered by a pair of 9,220-lb.-thrust GE CF34-3B1 turbofans. Other variants have

included the 44-seat CRJ440, also powered by CF34-3B1s; the 64-78 seat CRJ700, powered by two 13,790-lb.-

thrust CF34-8C5 turbofans; and the 86-90-seat CRJ900, powered by two 14,255-lb.-thrust CF34-8C5s. Bombar-

dier’s Challenger 850 business jet/corporate shuttle is based on the 50-seat CRJ200LR. The newest aircraft in the

CRJ series, the CRJ1000, is a stretch of the CRJ900, allowing a 100-passenger confguration. It made its frst fight

in September 2008, with certifcation following in December 2010. The CRJ100, CRJ200 and CRJ440 are no longer

in production. In May 2007, Bombardier introduced next-generation versions of the CRJ700 and CRJ900 featuring

operating cost improvements, an all-new cabin and increased use of composite materials. Bombardier delivered

1,723 CRJs through 2012, including 332 CRJ700/705s, 261 CRJ900s, 28 CRJ1000s, 81 Challenger 800 business

jets and 1,021 earlier-model CRJs. Another 376 aircraft are projected to be built in the 2013-22 period. Primary

competition comes from Embraer, although the Comac ARJ21, Sukhoi Superjet 100 and Mitsubishi Regional Jet may

attract potential CRJ customers.

Bombardier CSeries Launched in July 2008, Bombardier’s CSeries family comprises two basic models: the

CS100, which carries 110 passengers; and the larger CS300 model, which seats 135 in a standard confguration.

The aircraft will be powered by two Pratt & Whitney PW1500G geared turbofans producing up to 23,300 lb. thrust

each. With an extra-capacity seating option, the CS300 can carry up to 160 passengers. The CS100’s frst fight oc-

curred in September. The CS100 will compete with the Embraer 190 and 195, while the CS300 will vie against the

Boeing 737 and Airbus A319. Some 352 CSeries aircraft are forecast for production through 2022.

Bombardier Q Series This twin-engine turboprop aircraft family was known as the Dash 8 series. The original

Q100 made its frst fight in June 1983; frst deliveries followed in October 1984. The Q100 carried 37-39 pas-

sengers and was equipped with 2,150-shp Pratt & Whitney Canada PW120/121 engines. Other models have been

the 37-39-passenger Q200 (with 2,150-shp PW123C/Ds) and the 50-56-seat Q300 (with 2,500-shp PW123Bs).

Q100, Q200 and Q300 production has ended. The 68-78-seat Q400 (with 5,071-shp PW150As) remains in

production. Through 2012, Bombardier produced 1,104 Q-series aircraft, with an additional 397 forecast in the

2013-22 period. The main competitors to the Qs are the ATRs.

Cessna Caravan This single-turboprop-powered utility/passenger aircraft frst few in December 1982. Through

2012, Cessna produced 2,214 Caravans of all types. Designed with the small-package delivery segment in mind,

Caravan models currently in production include the 675 and the 208B Grand Caravan. Both are powered by a Pratt

& Whitney Canada PT6A-114A turboprop engine rated at 675 shp. Also in production is the upgraded Grand Cara-

van EX model, featuring a more powerful PT6A-140 turboprop engine. The EX achieved certifcation in January 2013.

Cessna is forecast to deliver 981 Caravans during the 2013-22 period.

Comac ARJ21 Initially, the new ARJ21 regional jet from Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China was to be available

in the ARJ21-700 78-90-seat variant, while later introduction of the 98-105-seat ARJ21-900 is a possibility. Power

is provided by two GE CF34-10A turbofans producing 18,500 lb. thrust each. Rollout of the ARJ21-700 occurred in

December 2007, followed by frst fight in November 2008. Four ARJ21s were built through 2012, and 103 ad-

ditional examples are forecast for production through 2022. The ARJ21 faces competition from Bombardier and

Embraer.

Comac C919 A twin-turbofan-powered, narrowbody commercial passenger transport aircraft, the C919 targets

the Airbus/Boeing duopoly in narrowbody airliner sales. Variants include the baseline C919-200, which seats up to

168 passengers; the C919-100, a 130-seat model that will compete against the Airbus A319; and the C919-300, a

190-seat model designed to compete with Airbus’s A321 and Boeing’s 737-800/900. Comac has selected the CFM

International Leap-1C engine, with 30,000 lb. thrust, to power the C919. Service entry is planned for 2016. Produc-

tion of 128 aircraft is forecast through 2022.



Daher-Socata TBM 850 The TBM 850 is a single-engine, 4-6-passenger, turboprop-powered aircraft that

replaced the TBM 700 in 2006. Power is provided by a single 850-shp Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-66D engine,

fat-rated to 850 shp. The aircraft has a range of 1,585 nm. Through 2012, production totaled 299 aircraft. Produc-

tion of another 421 is forecast for 2013-22.

Embraer 170/175/190/195 This is Embraer’s E-Jets family of twin-engine, 70-132-seat regional jetliners.

The 70-80-passenger 170 made its frst fight in February 2002, followed by the larger 78-88-seat 175 in June

2003. The 170 and 175 share a common engine in the 14,200-lb.-thrust GE CF34-8E. The 94-114-seat 190

made its initial fight in March 2004, while the 106-122-passenger 195 frst few in December 2004. GE CF34-10E

engines, rated at 20,000 lb. thrust each, power these models. Additionally, Embraer developed the Lineage 1000, a

business-jet version of the 190 that began deliveries in 2009. In June 2013, Embraer launched the second genera-

tion of its E-Jets family, dubbed the E2 series. They are the E175-E2, E190-E2 and E195-E2. Changes to the current

E-Jets models include new wings, improved systems and Pratt & Whitney PW1700G engines on the E175-E2 and

PW1900Gs on the E190-E2 and E195-E2. In addition, single-class capacity will be increased on the E175-E2 and

E195-E2. Service entry of the E190-E2 is planned for 2018, followed by the E195-E2 in 2019 and the E175-E2 in

2020. Overall, E-Jet production totaled 935 aircraft through 2012. An estimated 973 additional aircraft, including

the E2 models, are forecast for production for 2013-22.

Embraer ERJ 135/140/145 The ERJ 135/140/145 family is a series of twin-engine, 37-50-seat regional

jets. The initial model was the 50-seat ERJ 145, which frst few in August 1995; deliveries began in late 1996. The

next model was the 37-seat ERJ 135, which made its initial fight in July 1998 followed by deliveries in July 1999.

The 44-passenger ERJ 140 frst few in June 2000, with initial deliveries in July 2001. All models use variants of the

Rolls-Royce AE 3007A series turbofan. Through 2012, 928 aircraft in the series were produced, not including the

Legacy 600 or 650 business jet versions of the ERJ 135.

GippsAero GA10/GA18 The Australian company GippsAero is developing a 10-seat turboprop aircraft, dubbed

the GA10, that is powered by a Rolls-Royce 250-B17F/2 engine. The aircraft has a maximum takeoff weight of

2,154 kg (4,750 lb.). First fight of a GA10 developmental prototype occurred in May 2012. GippsAero is also

developing the GA18 twin turboprop, a re-engineered version of the N24 Nomad. The GA18 is expected to feature

upgraded engines, new propellers, a glass cockpit, weight-saving measures, reduced maintenance requirements and

aerodynamic refnements.

HAI Y-12 The Y-12 series is another family of twin-turboprop aircraft. The Y-12-II is equipped with Western avionics

and Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-27 engines fat-rated to 620 shp each. The Y-12-IV has winglets, a strengthened

undercarriage and redesigned seating for 18-19 passengers. Another Y-12 version is the Y-12E, which is powered

by 750-shp PT6A-135 engines. A total of 48 Y-12-II/-IV and Y-12E aircraft are forecast to be produced for the

civil market in the coming 10 years. HAI is currently developing the Y-12F, which is substantially different from the

earlier Y-12s. The Y-12F is expected to have a wider fuselage, retractable landing gear, and increased speed, range

and payload. It is equipped with 1,100-shp PT6A-65B engines and Honeywell Primus Apex avionics.

Ilyushin IL-96 This four-engine, medium/long-range, widebody commercial passenger and cargo transport aircraft

frst few as the -300 in 1988 and was awarded certifcation in December 1992. It is powered by Aviadvigatel PS-

90A1 engines rated 35,275 lb. thrust each. The stretched Il-96-400 is powered by uprated PS-90A1 engines. The

Il-96-400 passenger version can seat 436 in a single-class confguration, 386 in two classes or 315 in a three-class

layout. One Il-96-300 and four Il-96-400s are forecast for production in the 2013-22 period.

Irkut MS-21 The Irkut MS-21 is a twin-turbofan, narrowbody derivative of the defunct Yakovlev Yak-242 airliner.

The MS-21 family comprises the 150-seat MS-21-200, 181-seat MS-21-300 and 212-seat MS-21-400. All three

are to be available in both basic and extended-range versions; the -200 is also to be available in a long-range vari-

ant. Power will be provided by Pratt & Whitney PW1400G or Aviadvigatel PD-14 engines. First fight is planned for

2015, with a service entry target date of 2017. Primary competition is likely to come from the Boeing 737, Airbus

A320 and Comac C919. A total of 167 MS-21s is forecast to be produced through 2022.



Mitsubishi Regional Jet Mitsubishi formally launched the twin-engine Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) family in

March 2008. Initially, two basic models were planned: the 78-passenger MRJ70 and 92-seat MRJ90. The MRJ70 is

powered by 15,600-lb.-thrust Pratt & Whitney PW1215G engines, while the MRJ90 is powered by 17,600-lb.-thrust

PW1217Gs. Extended- and long-range versions of each basic model are envisioned, while a 100-seater dubbed the

MRJ100 is being seriously considered. MRJ frst fight is planned for the second quarter of 2015, with service entry

slated for 2017. Approximately 285 MRJs are forecast for production in the 2013-22 period.

Pilatus PC-12 This pressurized, single-turboprop-powered, corporate/utility transport aircraft frst few in May

1991, and received Swiss and U.S. certifcation in 1994. It seats nine in its standard layout. Portugal’s OGMA as-

sembles green aircraft and manufactures some components. The current PC-12 production version, the PC-12 NG

(Next Generation), is powered by the 1,200-shp Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-67P. A total of 1,166 PC-12s in all

versions were built through 2012. Production of 875 units is expected during the 2013-22 period. The PC-12

competes with the Daher-Socata TBM 850 and Cessna Caravan.

RUAG Aerospace Do 228 Next Generation Launched in 2007, RUAG Aerospace’s Do 228NG (Next Gen-

eration) is an updated version of Dornier’s original Do 228. The aircraft is powered by 776-shp Honeywell TPE331-

10 turboprop engines, and features other improvements such as a new glass cockpit, fve-blade propellers and

aerodynamic changes to the wing. The frst RUAG-produced Do 228NGs were delivered to customers in 2010,

with a total of eight to date.

Sukhoi Superjet 100 The Sukhoi Superjet 100 is a family of twin-engine regional transports powered by

Snecma/NPO Saturn SaM146 turbofan engines, rated at 13,500-17,500 lb. thrust each. The series was launched

with a 95-98-seat baseline model, the Superjet 100-95. Being considered are a shortened 100-75, a 75-78-seat

version; and the lengthened 100-115/120, a 115-120-seat version. The Superjet 100-95 made its frst fight in May

2008, and achieved initial Russian/CIS certifcation in early 2011. Deliveries began in mid-2011. Production of

206 Superjet 100s is forecast from 2013-22.

Tupolev Tu-204/214 The Tu-204-100 is a twin-turbofan, short/medium-range, narrowbody commercial trans-

port aircraft powered by a pair of Aviadvigatel PS-90As, while the Tu-204-120 has two Rolls-Royce RB211-535E4

engines. The Tu-214 has a higher maximum takeoff weight (110,750 kg or 243,650 lb.) than the Tu-204-100. It

retains the PS-90A powerplants of the -100 but carries additional fuel. The Tu-204’s frst fight occurred in January

1989 and through 2012, 87 Tu-204s and Tu-214s were produced. Just six Tu-214 aircraft are forecast for produc-

tion in the 2013-22 period.

Viking Air DHC-6 Twin Otter Series 400 Viking Air owns the manufacturing rights to a number of out-of-

production de Havilland aircraft, including the DHC-6 Twin Otter, an all-metal, non-pressurized, high-wing, twin-engine

turboprop utility aircraft. In April 2007, Viking Air launched a program to restart production of the 19-passenger Twin

Otter. The updated Viking Air Twin Otter Series 400 incorporates more than 800 changes to the Series 300, and is

powered by two Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-34s or optional PT6A-35s. First fight occurred in February 2010, fol-

lowed by Transport Canada certifcation in June 2010 and initial deliveries in July 2010. Production of 182 aircraft

is forecast between 2013 and 2022; 20 aircraft were completed through 2012.

Xian MA60/MA600 The MA60 twin-turboprop transport aircraft is a stretched version of the Xi’an Y7-200A,

in turn a variation on the Antonov An-24. The 52-60-seater is powered by two 2,750-shp Pratt & Whitney Canada

PW127J engines. Initial fight and delivery of the MA60 took place in 2000. A freighter version, the MA60-500, is

also marketed. In May 2010, a new variant, the MA600, was awarded certifcation by the Civil Aviation Administra-

tion of China. It features reduced weight, an upgraded cabin, new avionics (the Rockwell Collins Pro Line 21 suite)

and a host of other improvements. Through 2012, Xian produced 82 MA60s and four MA600s. Forecast Interna-

tional expects 140 MA60/MA600 aircraft to be built for the civil market in the 2013-22 period.

Xian MA700 Xian is developing a twin-turboprop regional airliner dubbed the MA700. This aircraft is a clean-

sheet design, not an MA60 variant. Features include six-blade propellers, a T-tail and an unswept, high-mounted

wing. Plans call for an initial variant seating 76-78 passengers. A stretched 90-seater would follow. MA700 service

entry is targeted for 2018. Xian intends to pursue FAA and EASA certifcation for the MA700. The MA700 could

eventually replace the MA60/MA600 in production.




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Oct. 29-31—Third Edition of the World

Passenger Symposium. The Convention

Center Dublin. See www.iata.org/events/

passenger-symposium/Pages/index.aspx

Oct. 29-31—Seventh Annual European

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Association Aircraft Survivability

Symposium. U.S. Naval Postgraduate School,

Monterey, Calif. U.S. personnel only. Further

information will be posted at www.ndia.org/

meetings/4940/Pages/default.aspx

Nov. 5-7—22nd Avsec World Conference.

Hilton Hotel, Istanbul. See www.iata.org/

events/Pages/avsec.aspx

Nov. 13-15—10th ALTA Airline Leaders

Forum 2013. Cancun, Mexico. See

www.altaairlineleaders.com

Nov. 17-21—Dubai Airshow. See

www.dubaiairshow.aero/

Nov. 26-28—Autonomous, Unmanned

Systems & Robotics (AUS&R) conference,

exhibition and live demonstration. Rishon

Lezion, Israel. See ausrexpo.com

Jan. 13-17—22nd AIAA/ASME/AHS

Adaptive Structures Conference and 52nd

AIAA Aerospace Sciences Conference.

National Harbor, Md. See www.aiaa.org/

EventDetail.aspx?id=18389 and 18405

Feb. 4-6—NSISC Space Infosec Technical

Workshop, “Space Infosec Addressing

New Challenges,” The Aerospace Corp., El

Segundo, Calif. See www.cvent.com/d/j4qndz

Feb. 24-27—The Aerospace Corp.’s GSAW

2014. Renaissance Los Angeles Airport

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SingaporeProfi ts and Progress for Growth in AsiaThis is where real collaboration and partnerships happen.

Advertisers in this issueAirbus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-5Alpha Star Aviation Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29ATR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Aviation Week NBAA APP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Photo Contest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Aviation Week Events A&D Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 MRO Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23**BAE Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Boeing Co.,The . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Breitling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4th CoverEADS North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19*, 23*Forecast International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Government of Ontario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27ILA Messe Berlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35ILS, Inventory Locator Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61ITT Exelis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45L-3 Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2nd CoverMitsubishi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25MTUAero Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Nexans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Northrop Grumman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Ontic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3PPG Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Raytheon Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3rd CoverSingapore Air Show . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Staco Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41Thales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21United Technologies Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19**

DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY EDITION:(Between pages 46 & 47):AAR Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT11ATI Engineering Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT5Aviation Week A&D Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT15*AWIN Defense Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT19*DynCorp International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT24Embraer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT9FLIR Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT13Harco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT23Intelsat General Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT17ITT Exelis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT3RADA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT20Rafael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT7RUAG Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT15**, DT19**ViaSat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT21

CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87Abaris Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87Matec Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

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Feb. 10—Air Transport World’s 40th Annual Airline Industry

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March 3—SpeedNews’ Fourth Annual Aerospace Raw Materials &

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March 3-5—SpeedNews’ 28th Annual Commercial Aviation Industry

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March 6—Aviation Week’s Laureate Awards. Washington.

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http://www.dubaiairshow.aero/

F ive years ago, the U.S. rotorcraft industry was stagnant, fat and happy. It was building the same old helicopters for customers

who did not think they needed anything better. Today, the industry is vibrant and developing new designs, but running the same risk of focusing on a single, dominant customer with a shaky record of mak-ing and sticking to procurement decisions.

Industry says the customer shares the blame for the lack of in-novation. Until not too long ago, the U.S. Army was content to spend billions annually buying AH-64 Apaches, CH-47 Chinooks and UH-60 Black Hawks—designs that originated in the 1960s and 1970s—but only tens of millions of dollars on developing technology for a future generation of rotorcraft.

That changed as lessons from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan piled up. In those high, hot and harsh environments, the capability and survivability of today’s helicopters was found seriously wanting. So the Pentagon spun up its Future Vertical Lift (FLV) initiative to develop a family of advanced rotorcraft to replace its feets of heli-copters and address the capability gaps.

The frst result is the Army’s Joint Multirole (JMR) program, to fy two high-speed demonstrators in 2017 as a precursor to developing FLV Medium replacements for frst the Black Hawk utility and later Apache attack helicopters. Industry is of and running. Bell and Ka-rem are designing tiltrotors (see pages 44 and 72), AVX and Sikorsky/ Boeing are backing coaxial rotors.

But FLV Medium would not enter service before the mid-2030s at the earliest, and the Army may yet decide that high speed—and other capabilities that come with it—are too costly and risky to develop. It always has been in the past. The 210-kt. AH-56 Cheyenne gave way to the 150-kt. Apache, and the list of high-speed dead-ends is a long one.

As of late last week, the U.S. government was in the second week of drastically curtailed opera-

tions and Washington was firting with inaction on a technical fx needed to make good on its treasury’s obligations. One major defense company chief we spoke with last week described the federal budget

process as “chaos” and the impact on the industries we cover as “a destructive force” (see page 31).

Readers outside the U.S. must be wondering: How can the most powerful nation in the world, the largest economy and the self-professed model of democracy, pluck and inventiveness, fail so mis-erably at the basics of governance? Meanwhile, Americans wonder why politicians simply will not compromise.

In Rotorcraft, The Customer May Not Always Be Right

To End Washington Gridlock, Fix Process

Manufacturers insist it will be diferent this time. But the risk remains that U.S. industry will again be at the whim of a single customer. Meanwhile, European manufacturers, lacking such a monolithic domestic military market, have directed their resources to de-veloping technology for commercial and dual-use ro-torcraft. As a result, they dominate the civil market and are making inroads into the military sector.

The U.S. Army still is not investing much in tech-nology compared with what it spends buying heli-copters: just $217 million for two JMR demonstra-

tors. Industry will chip in far more, likely the bulk of its independent R&D spending earmarked for rotorcraft. And only Bell is also investing in all-new commercial helicopters.

While there is a commercial market for speed, it is far from assured and may be small. If the U.S. industry puts all its R&D eggs in the high-speed basket and the Army chickens out and stays with conventional helicopters—as it did with the stealthy RAH-66 Comanche—will the sector end up in an in-novation dead-end? If it does, the moral of the story will be: Do not ignore your largest customer, but don’t let it dictate your technology strategy, either. c

The reason: The U.S. system now discourages compromise and pro-motes crises. It was not designed that way. The founders did not envi-sion government shutdowns and defaults on debt as tactical political instruments when they crafted the U.S. Constitution. Rather, the U.S. has allowed this devolution of the system into one that promotes the election of extremists, empowers minorities within Congress and sets up superfuous fscal mechanisms that can lead to crises.

This new normal of crisis after crisis is unlikely to change soon un-less the root causes are addressed. One of the most signifcant is the polarization of the political class, which has been exacerbated by the gerrymandering of districts for the House of Representatives.

In most states, the drawing of district boundaries, which takes place after each decade’s census, is controlled by state legislatures—the party in the majority of each state house. The goal of these pols is to create as many districts as possible in which their party can win, and to lump together as many of the other party’s supporters into as few districts as possible. Powerful computer algorithms make it possible to crunch voting data and slice up entire states on a block-by-block basis. The result is often perverse borders that have little to do with communities and very few seats that are competitive for both parties. That makes it difcult for moderates to get elected because they can-not make it past their own party’s primaries to be nominated. With fewer moderates in the House, compromise becomes less likely.

There are other ways to craft congressional districts. Nonpartisan commissions are one. It is such matters of process that citizens must address if they want diferent results in Washington. c

Editorials

European manufacturers have directed resources to developing technology for commercial and dual-use rotorcraft

“ “

The U.S. system now discourages compromise and promotes crises “ “



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Aviation Week Space Technology - 14-21 October 2013

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