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Aviva Investors UK Equity and Aviva Investors UK Equity Income Funds.
This document is approved for investment professionals only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients. Standard & Poor’s AA rating s for both funds as at 30 September 2011.
CHRIS MURPHY
A CHART FROM JANUARY 2010
US: cumulative jobs lost since December 2007
Construction
Retail
Financial
Other
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Total loss of 7.3m jobs
-1.6m = 21% of total
Source: Thomson Financial and Aviva Investors
-0.9m = 13% of total
-0.5m = 8% of total
Page 1
Data as at January 2010
Number of jobs
AMERICA IS IN SAFE HANDS
Page 2
EUROPE IS IN SAFE HANDS
Page 3
SO WHAT SHOULD YOU EXPECT
Page 4
AS FOR THE UK
Page 5
THE ‘SCORES ON THE DOORS’ OR STOP READING
Region Flexible Monetary Policy
Sensible Fiscal Policy
Policy makers coordinated
Score
USA yes no no 1
Europe no no no 0
UK yes yes yes(..ish) 2 1/2
Page 6
Note: These are the views of Aviva Investors as at 30 September 2011
THE UK…..IT’S LARGE AND GLOBAL
Source: Citi. Factset & CIRA as at 30 September 2011
Page 7
Top 15 Equity Markets (MSCI Weight)
Percentage of 2009 Revenues by Region
%
FINANCIAL HEALTH - MARGINS
Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011*E: estimated
Page 8
Market ex Financials Market ex Financials ex Commodities
Year Year
FINANCIAL HEALTH – BALANCE SHEETS
Page 9
Year Year
Market ex Financials Market ex Financials ex Commodities
Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011*E: estimated
% %
FINANCIAL HEALTH- CASH FLOW
Source: Factset & CIRA as at 30 September 2011
Page 10
UK Free Cash Flow Yield & Corp Bond Yields UK Return of capital, Annual
Year Year
%
VALUATION
Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011*E: estimated
Page 11
Year Year
EV/EBITDA UK Market - Price to Book
P
rice
/Bo
ok
%
E
V/E
BIT
DA
%
VALUATION VS THE WORLD
Source: Factset & CIRA as at 30 September 2011
Page 12
UK vs. World Price/Earnings UK vs. World Dividend Yield
Price/Earnings (%) Dividend Yield (%)
GROWTH AND REVENUE
Source: IBES, MSCI, Factset, CIRA as at 30 September 2011 Page 13
Regional EPS Growth 2011E UK Share of EM Revs. vs. World
%
EQUITY YIELDS
Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011
Page 14
Historic Dividend Yield Dividend Yield vs. Gilt Yields
Year Year
YIELD -MIND THE GAP
Source: Global Financial Data, Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011
Page 15
UK Dividend Yield Ratio
Yield%
Year
LOW RATINGS LEAD TO HIGH RETURNS
1970
19711972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1979
19801981 1983
19851986
198719891990
1991
19921993
1994
1997
19981999
2000
y = -0.9006x + 20.151
R2 = 0.7333
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Starting period PER (X)
Av erage 10 y ear real total return (% per annum)
Source: Oriel Securities as at 30 September 2011
Page 16
Price/Earnings and 10 year real equity returns
Starting period PER (X)
Av
g.
10
ye
ar
Tota
l R
etu
rn (
% p
er
an
nu
m)
MEAN REVERSION WHAT GONE DOWN MUST GO UP!
18811882188318841885188618871888188918901891189218931894189518961897189818991900190119021903190419051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011-200
0
200
400
600
800
rolling 10 year nom UK stock returns rolling 10-year real UK stock returns
Roaring 20s: peace, prosperity, strong eco-
nomic growth, technolo-gical improvements, strong income gains,
stocks bought on "mar-gin"
1980s/90s: financial deregulation, disinflation, economic stability, technological advances, new
paradigm, M&A wave, TMT/NAS-DAQ bubble
1950s: post-war boom, strong consumption, intro-duction of mutual funds encouraged small in-
vestors back to market, expansion of commercial aviation, new technology (e.g. chemicals, electric-als), merger wave, leading to Nifty Fifty leadership
Source: CIRA as at 30 September 2011
Page 17
Year
Av
era
ge
Re
ve
rsio
n
UK EQUITIES ARE CHEAP.
Page 18
Important information
This document is approved for investment professionals only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors as at 30 September 2011.
Any future returns and opinions expressed are those of Aviva Investors and are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.
Where performance has been illustrated it is not intended to be a guide to the future. The value of an investment in a fund and the income from it can go down as well as up.
For full information about the risks involved when investing in this product please refer to the simplified prospectus. A copy can be downloaded from our website or is available from us on request.
Aviva Investors is a business name of Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager. Registered in England No. 1973412. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. FSA Registered No. 119310. Registered address: No 1. Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. An Aviva company. www.avivainvestors.co.uk
CI061691 10/2011