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AzleIndependentSchoolDistrict

Demographic Update

Spring 2017

Economic Conditions – DFW Area (December 2016)

2

Unemployment

Rate

0.1%

112,800 new jobs

National rate 1.5%

Job Growth

3.3%

3,350 more

starts than 2015

Annual

Home Starts

29,892

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 4.5%

Texas 4.6%

DFW MSA 3.7%

Fort Worth 3.7%

Azle ISD Home Sales

• Azle ISD had 5,823 home sales in 2016, and roughly 15% were of new homes

• The median sale price of a new home in 2016 was $198,240

• The median sale price of an existing home in 2016 was $180,390

2016 Home Sales by Price Point

3

66.45%13.55%

14.84%

4.52% 0.65%

2016 Azle ISD

New Home Sales

$150K - $250K

$250K-$350K

$350K-$500K

< $150K

> $500K

Data excludes transactions with undisclosed sale price

Source: Tarrant and Parker County Deed Transacations

36.54%

31.81%

16.80%

11.75%

3.10%

2016 Azle ISD

Existing Home

Sales

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16

4

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Frisco ISD 2,639 2,542 3,569 7,931

2 Denton ISD 1,971 2,103 2,420 17,033

3 Prosper ISD 2,569 2,050 4,675 27,142

4 Lewisville ISD 1,313 1,387 1,468 4,494

5 Northwest ISD 1,670 1,282 2,207 21,091

6 Dallas ISD 1,574 1,223 2,233 6,029

7 Little Elm ISD 1,088 1,099 1,575 4,250

8 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 768 856 1,277 19,855

9 Rockwall ISD 984 850 1,887 8,116

10 Keller ISD 778 788 970 1,746

11 Crowley ISD 714 783 662 9,714

12 McKinney ISD 789 723 1,610 5,965

13 Mansfield ISD 763 708 898 6,612

14 Wylie ISD 798 707 1,042 4,500

15 Forney ISD 688 552 884 14,232

16 Allen ISD 570 515 1,052 1,597

17 Coppell ISD 461 483 588 329

18 Waxahachie ISD 447 477 801 9,817

19 Plano ISD 463 453 1,030 2,660

20 Midlothian ISD 553 445 1,295 19,947

31 Carroll ISD 214 223 370 529

32 Azle ISD 256 217 358 1,253

33 Royse City ISD 211 214 681 10,029

New Housing Activity

• Azle ISD started 256 new homes in 2016, a rise of 20% over 2015

• 4Q district new home closings rose more than 80% over the

previous fourth quarter

• The district closed 217 new homes in 2016, a rise of 11 units over

2015, and 79 units over 2014 5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Starts Closings

Azle ISD

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1Q 8 17 21 52 31 1Q 16 15 20 44 32

2Q 13 31 39 69 60 2Q 11 17 32 42 41

3Q 13 25 50 47 82 3Q 10 22 44 72 56

4Q 19 42 41 44 83 4Q 23 34 42 48 88

Total 53 115 151 212 256 Total 60 88 138 206 217

Annual Closings

6

Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q16 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank Subdivision Status Elementary Zone Annual

ClosingsVDL Future

1 Golden Pond Estates ACTIVE SILVER CREEK 89 2 0

2 Deer Ridge Estates ACTIVE SILVER CREEK 46 67 28

3 Bristol Farm Addition FUTURE WALNUT CREEK 15 0 70

4 Oak Harbor ACTIVE WALNUT CREEK 10 21 42

5 Hidden Creek Estates (Parker Co) ACTIVE CROSS TIMBERS 9 12 0

TOTALS 169 102 181

District Housing Overview

7

• Azle ISD has more than 350

lots available to build on

• The district has roughly

1,200 planned future lots

Residential ActivityDeer Ridge

• 334 total lots

• 203 occupied

• 28 futures

• 67 VDL

• 27 U/C

• 38 lots in Phase 8 roads

delivered 3Q16

• $225K - $400K

• Silver Creek Elementary

8

Residential Activity

9

Bristol Farms

• 158 total lots

• 88 occupied

• Approx. 70 planned future lots

• Phase 2 with 41 lots plans underway

• Walnut Creek Elementary

• New Elementary school site in development

Ashwood Park

• 140 total lots

• 71 occupied

• 69 future lots

• Groundwork underway on final

69 lots, delivering July 2017

• First homes occupied Oct 2017

• Homes starting low to mid $200s

• Walnut Creek Elementary

Eagle Lake Gardens

Village

• 19 SF homes occupied

• 40 duplex units occupied

• 30 future lots

• Engineering plans underway for

final 30 lots

• Homes likely starting by late 2017

• Walnut Creek Elementary

New Elem

School Site

Residential Activity

10

Falcon Ridge

• 35 total lots

• 19 occupied

• 8 VDL

• 6 homes U/C

• Started 12 homes in 2016

• Built out by the end of 2017

• Walnut Creek Elementary

Kimbrough Place

• 29 total future lots

• Final plat approved in Sept 2016

• Groundwork underway

• Homes starting late 2017 or early 2018

• Walnut Creek Elementary

Residential Activity

11

Sandy Beach

• Approx. 169 future lots

• Initial planning stages, no

plats submitted at this time

• Likely 12-18 months from

homebuilding

• Liberty Elementary

Forest Glen

• 35 future lots

• Final plat approved Dec 2016

• Groundwork underway with first

15 homes starting by July 2017

• Anticipate being built out by end

of 2018

• Cross Timbers Elementary

Lakeview Estates

• 188 future lots

• 10 future duplex lots

• Engineering plans underway

• Preliminary plat approved by

the City of Pelican Bay

• Groundwork likely starting

by mid to late 2017

• Liberty Elementary

Residential Activity

12

Winding Creek

• 39 total lots

• 7 occupied

• 24 VDL

• 3 homes U/C

• Building ~10 homes a year

• $400K - $430K

• Cross Timbers Elementary

Golden Pond

• 183 total lots

• 132 occupied

• 2 VDL

• 36 homes U/C

• Started 122 homes in 2016

• Built out by mid 2017

• Silver Creek Elementary

Residential Activity

13

Reata West Apartments

• 224 units under construction

• First units leasing December 2017

or January 2018

• All units leasing spring 2018

• Cross Timbers Elementary

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Azle ISD will reach 6,400 students by next fall

• 5 year growth = 817 students

• 2021/22 enrollment = 7,138

• 10 year growth = 1,366 students

• 2026/27 enrollment = 7,687

14

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth % Growth

2011/12 126 468 434 455 427 486 424 461 442 468 514 484 433 325 5,947

2012/13 139 460 451 430 439 423 462 409 466 435 543 454 418 401 5,930 -17 -0.3%

2013/14 144 452 470 463 424 454 440 481 415 476 499 497 412 361 5,988 58 1.0%

2014/15 129 473 483 479 476 430 482 448 491 422 545 469 454 375 6,156 168 2.8%

2015/16 139 449 475 469 471 484 449 484 482 488 510 475 461 406 6,242 86 1.4%

2016/17 112 477 475 478 483 501 493 477 491 483 559 468 447 377 6,321 79 1.3%

2017/18 112 471 496 483 490 503 522 509 511 494 547 507 429 395 6,469 148 2.3%

2018/19 112 462 505 515 493 513 532 532 531 511 576 489 465 377 6,613 144 2.2%

2019/20 112 500 504 510 531 516 533 552 550 530 586 533 453 405 6,815 202 3.1%

2020/21 112 503 529 514 519 551 541 553 573 550 608 532 490 398 6,973 158 2.3%

2021/22 112 498 537 544 524 533 578 560 574 573 633 553 490 429 7,138 165 2.4%

2022/23 112 520 518 545 557 542 556 600 581 573 656 579 510 429 7,278 140 2.0%

2023/24 112 508 550 522 554 567 573 580 623 579 657 597 533 447 7,402 124 1.7%

2024/25 112 509 535 560 533 564 600 595 601 622 664 599 550 467 7,511 109 1.5%

2025/26 112 508 535 543 570 549 594 624 616 602 712 605 552 482 7,604 93 1.2%

2026/27 112 518 536 542 554 585 579 618 647 617 689 648 558 484 7,687 83 1.1%

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

• Azle Elementary may enroll nearly 570 students by next fall

• Azle Junior High School may enroll more than 560 students by 2018

• Azle ISD is anticipated to grow by 2.34% next fall

15

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated maximum capacity*Green box = enrollment exceeds stated functional capacity

Functional Capacity

Maximum Capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

Azle Elementary School 447 559 525 569 574 581 605 634 615 593 629 641 620

Cross Timbers Elementary School 512 569 523 533 561 602 624 645 639 637 631 611 614

Eagle Heights Elementary School 476 529 468 454 449 440 441 443 458 461 460 456 462

Liberty Elementary School 475 528 444 447 446 446 458 469 486 487 493 499 496

Silver Creek Elementary School 459 511 562 582 595 617 620 615 629 644 647 669 691

Hoover Elementary School 540 600 445 462 490 504 489 504 541 560 566 577 577

Walnut Creek Elementary School 473 526 529 539 549 568 585 576 582 584 582 582 584

ELEMENTARY TOTALS 3,382 3,822 3,496 3,586 3,664 3,758 3,822 3,886 3,950 3,966 4,008 4,035 4,044

Elementary Percent Change 2.22% 2.57% 2.18% 2.57% 1.70% 1.67% 1.65% 0.41% 1.06% 0.67% 0.22%

Elementary Absolute Change 76 90 78 94 64 64 64 16 42 27 9

Azle Junior High South 730 835 511 523 562 603 610 618 645 675 653 631 670

Santo Forte Junior High School 739 845 463 482 480 477 513 529 509 527 570 587 594

JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 1,469 1,680 974 1,005 1,042 1,080 1,123 1,147 1,154 1,202 1,223 1,218 1,264

Junior High School Percent Change 0.41% 3.18% 3.68% 3.65% 3.98% 2.14% 0.61% 4.16% 1.75% -0.41% 3.78%

Junior High School Absolute Change 4 31 37 38 43 24 7 48 21 -5 46

Azle High School 2,183 2,495 1,791 1,818 1,847 1,917 1,968 2,045 2,114 2,174 2,220 2,291 2,319

Azle Hornet Adademy 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 2,183 2,495 1,851 1,878 1,907 1,977 2,028 2,105 2,174 2,234 2,280 2,351 2,379

High School Percent Change -0.05% 1.46% 1.54% 3.67% 2.58% 3.80% 3.28% 2.76% 2.06% 3.11% 1.19%

High School Absolute Change -1 27 29 70 51 77 69 60 46 71 28

Tarrant County JJAEP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DISTRICT TOTALS 7,034 7,997 6,321 6,469 6,613 6,815 6,973 7,138 7,278 7,402 7,511 7,604 7,687

District Percent Change 1.27% 2.34% 2.23% 3.05% 2.32% 2.37% 1.96% 1.70% 1.47% 1.24% 1.09%

District Absolute Change 79 148 144 202 158 165 140 124 109 93 83

Summary

• 2016 new home starts in Azle ISD rose more than 20% over 2015.

• Azle ISD closed more than 200 homes for the second straight year.

• Silver Creek and Walnut Creek Elementary attendance zones have the

most housing activity within the district.

• Azle ISD can expect an increase of over 800 students during the next 5

years.

• 2021/22 enrollment projection = 7,138

• Azle ISD is projected to have almost 7,600 students for the 2026/27

school year.

www.tdemographics.com16