Date post: | 26-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | morris-hines |
View: | 215 times |
Download: | 1 times |
BARROW, HANLEY, MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS
DALLAS, TX
EQUITY PORTFOLIOMANAGEMENT
JANE GILDAY
SOUTHERN METHODIST UNIVERSITY
BHMS
1968Roaring Guns & Butter Economy
Rip Roaring Stock MarketRaging Vietnam War
BostonBank of Boston
AT&T
New York CityExxon
First National City Bank (Citigroup)J.P. Morgan & Co.
U.S. TrustArgus Research - Who??
1969N.Y.U. Business School
Bear Market
BHMS
1998
How does a Red Sox gal end up in Ranger territory?
30 years of experience in all kinds of markets, with a good stock picking record
Sell side became a beauty contest judged by investment bankers. Client portfolios didn’t matter anymore.
Barrow, Hanley growing rapidly. Needed in-house research.
Fabulous career and intellectual opportunity
BHMS
2004
Portfolio Manager in 1999. SMU is a client.
Partner in 2001.
Always a securities analyst.
BHMS
BHMS OVERVIEW
Twenty-Four Year Old Firm, Founded 1979 in Dallas, Texas Portfolio Managers - 5 Large Cap, 2 Small Cap, 1 Me
Analysts - 7 and MeFixed Income - 8 Traders - 3
Sole Focus is Value Management for Institutional Investors plus me
Large Manager of Institutional Assets - $37 Billion
Large Cap Value Equity (1979) $ 9.7 Billion 116 Clients
Mid Cap Value Equity (1999) $ 2.0 Billion 8 Clients
Small Cap Value Equity (1995) $ 900 Million 13 Clients
Fixed Income (1983) $ 3.5 Billion 64 Clients
Mutual Funds (1985) $ 19.8 Billion 9 Clients
Vanguard Windsor II (large cap)Vandguard Select Value (mid cap)
Sector Portfolios (1998) $ 507 Million 2 Clients
BHMS
Beat the Index
Analyze the index. 77 S&P stocks.
PG, KO, MO, VIA’B, PEP, AOL, CMCSA, BUD, DIS, G, CL, KMB
Buy Low/Sell High
Minimize Downside Risk
Pick Good Stocks
Bunge (BG/NYSE - $49.58)
Fortune Brands (FO/NYSE - $75.86)
JOB DESCRIPTION
3 = 24%
8 = 48%
12 = 60%
WHAT DO I DO ALL DAY LONG?
BHMS
WHAT DO I DO ALL DAY LONG?
S&P 500 up 1% since 2/23/2003
Stay Out of Trouble
Tribune Company (TRB/NYSE - $44.06)Down 12%
Univision (UVN/NYSE - $28.96) Down 19%
Interpublic Group (IPG/NYSE - $12.36)Down 27%
OOPS
Starbucks (SBUX/OTC - $54.44) Up 117%
Hershey Foods (HSY/NYSE - $52.45) Up 26%
Gillette (G/NYSE - $43.45) Up 13%
BHMS
RESOURCES - How do I do it?
NEWS: Wall Street Journal, Barrons, First Call, Prudent Bear.com, Drudge, CBS Marketwatch.com (for SEC filings), Business Week
EXPENSIVE STUFF: Holt (CSFB), StockVal, Bank Credit Analyst
SPREADSHEETS: P&L through Cash Flow to Balance Sheet
COMPANY VISITS: DEO, WEN, ATN, PX, SRCP
BHMS
RESOURCES - How do I do it?
CONFERENCES:
SSB/Palm Springs: Barry Diller, Sumner Redstone, Michael Eisner, Brian Roberts, Ed Whitacre
CAGNY/Scottsdale: Dr. Atkins, PG/KMB, innovation
LISTEN TO MY SON: Navarre/Halo II KO/H20 Abercrombie/Lacoste
Use every contact you’ve got/LEGALLY
BHMS
SPECIFIC EXAMPLES - DIAGEO
Initial Purchase
SubsequentAdditions
What did I see? General Mills registration statement (DEO to sell GIS shares) declared effective Diageo about to complete transformation to focused, world-leading spirits company Diageo commitment to return capital to shareholders Modest 14x P/E, 4.1% dividend yield, excellent balance sheet, strong cash flow
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
48
50
52
54
56
58
947
286
Volume in Thousands (max/avg)
Diageo PLC (DEO)1-Jan-2004 to 5-Nov-2004 (Daily) High: 57.600U.S. Dollar Low: 48.210
Last: 55.670
BHMS
NEWS CORP.
What did I see? Began trading on NYSE 11/2 International index fund selling about over US portfolio managers can buy Soon, or very soon, in S&P 500 Index
Outlook Great media assets broadly diversified
Fox Cable, Fox TV, 20th Century Fox movies, DirectTV, NY Post, TV Guide, SKY Satellite TV, TheAustralian, The Sun
Cheaper than Viacom, TimeWarner, Comcast, and Disney
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
18
3
Volume in Millions (max/avg)
News Corp. (NWS)1-Jan-2004 to 5-Nov-2004 (Daily) High: 19.870U.S. Dollar Low: 15.305
Last: 18.200
Initial Purchase
BHMS
A BAD HAIR DAY!!!
BHMS
JAKKS CORP.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
15629
429
Volume in Thousands (max/avg)
JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK)1-Jan-2004 to 5-Nov-2004 (Daily) High: 25.550U.S. Dollar Low: 12.720
Last: 17.690
The Set-Up
SubsequentAdditions
My best performing stock in 2004. Accounted for 5% to 8% in my portfolios. On 10/19, reports strong sales and earnings, raises forecasts, stock rises to $25.55 (52 wk high) On 10/19, stock closes at $18.81, down 22% on the day On 10/20, stock closes at $12.96, down an ADDITIONAL 31%
Vince deals a knock out punchStay-tuned for Stone Cold Jack FriedmanJAKK selling at 9.2x earnings, with $5.81 per share in cash
BHMS
LOOKING BACK: 1982 VS. TODAY’S MARKET
Valuation (S&P 500) 1982
10/31/04 P/E 8.3x
17.2x
P/B 1.1x
2.8x
Yield 5.6%
1.9%
Market Capitalization/GDP 40.2%
89.2%
Interest Rates 1982
10/31/04 Fed Funds Rate 13.1%
1.75%
90 Day T-Bill 11.1%
1.9%
10-Year Treasury Bond 14.0%
4.1%
Unemployment Rate 8.5%
5.4%Market valuations are higher today. Interest rates are at historic lows.
Source: BHMS and Ned Davis Research
BHMS
S&P 500 RETURNS BY THE DECADE (%/YEAR)
Earnings GrowthDividendsInvestment Return = + or - + or - Valuation
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s AVG.Next
Decade (“Reasonable
Expectations”)
At the outset of the decade, reasonable expectations for earnings growth and P/E levels suggested an average total return of approximately 5%.
9.1 3.9 15.1 -0.8 8.9 20.1 8.1 6.1 17.3 17.8 10.1 5.1Investment
Return
Source: Bogle Financial Markets
Research Center
BHMS
Buy Companies For Less Than They Are Worth
Know Your Downside
Have Patience
Don’t Forget to Watch the Ducks
APPLYING THE INVESTMENT DISCIPLINE
Look Where Nobody Else Is Looking
BHMS
BUSTED DEALS - CMCSK
NEGLECTED - FUN
COMPLICATED - CD
OBSCURE - BG
SCARY - JAKK
MISUNDERSTOOD - NWS
LOOK FOR IRRATIONAL SELLERS
SPIN-OFFS - FO
BHMS
WHAT DO THESE HAVE IN COMMON?
Union CarbideUnion Carbide
SearsSearsChase ManhattanChase Manhattan
TexacoTexaco
Northeast UtilitiesNortheast UtilitiesHalliburtonHalliburton
American ExpressAmerican Express
ExxonExxon
PfizerPfizer
Coca ColaCoca Cola
PepsiPepsi
Waste Management
Waste Management USTUST
BhopalBhopal
Management Management Credit CrisisCredit Crisis
BankruptcyBankruptcy
NRC IssuesNRC IssuesCollapse of Oil Collapse of Oil
PricesPrices
Management Management Boston Tea PartyBoston Tea Party
ValdezValdez
New CokeNew Coke
RestaurantsRestaurants
Accounting Accounting IrregularitiesIrregularities
Tobacco Tobacco LitigationLitigation
Shiley Heart Shiley Heart ValveValve
All were temporarily out of favor!
BHMS
Never Trust A Brokers’ Advice You are just below them on the food chain
Be Careful When Buying Stocks Whose CEO’S Are Building Homes, Buying Ranches, Naming Stadiums and Building New Headquarters ENRN TYC WCOM AOL
Spin-offs Almost Always Work KFT / FO
Watch the Covers Time Magazine - Jeff Bezos / Business Week - The Death of Equities
EQUITY INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
HOW TO GET RICH IN THE NEXT 25 YEARS
BHMS
Look For Insider Buying / Selling Very scary-can’t find any buyers these days.
Proven Winners in Management Are Good Bets – Norm Wesley, Rubin Mark, everyone at WalMart & Sysco
Trust Your Instincts - Don’t Look For Confirmation From Your Friends
My First Manhattan Guru - If you buy 100 shares in a company, would you buy the whole company?
EQUITY INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
HOW TO GET RICH IN THE NEXT 25 YEARS
BHMS
Sold July 2000
$820 Million
Sold 1990
$840 Million
Pebble Beach Golf Course
VALUATION DOES MATTER!
BHMS
THANK
YOU