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Badlands NGLs, LLC A US Ethane Project Case Study May 24, 2016 Badlands NGLS, LLC 1
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  • Badlands NGLs, LLC

    A US Ethane Project Case Study

    May 24, 2016

    Badlands NGLS, LLC1

  • Bakken NGL & Ethane

    Production Outlook - 2013

    Oil price ~ constant $100/bbl

    (Fall 2013)

    Williston Basin

    Gross Gas Production

    2015 1.7 BCF/D

    2020 2.5 BCF/D

    Ethane Production (11 GPM)

    2015 175 MB/D

    2020 260 MB/D

    Badlands NGLS, LLC2

    Source: Badlands Proprietary Bentek Energy Study

  • Bakken NGL & Ethane

    Production Outlook - 2015

    RBN Energy forecasted 2020 Williston

    Basin NGL & ethane production in July

    of 2015 when oil was priced at ~$50/bbl

    Growth Case (WTI: $95/bbl by 2020)

    NGL Production 500 MB/D

    Ethane Production 250 MB/D

    Contraction Case (WTI: $65/bbl by 2020)

    NGL Production 400 MB/D

    Ethane Production 200 MB/D

    Badlands NGLS, LLC3

    Source: RBN Energy Drill-Down Report

  • Bakken NGL & Ethane

    Production July 2015

    July 2015 ND (includes Montana) Gas Production

    1.76 BCF vs. 1.7 BCF (2013)

    July 2015 Ethane Production 250 MB/D vs. 175

    MB/D (2013)

    Actual Bakken NGL and ethane production in the

    summer of 2015 was greater than the amount

    originally forecasted by Bentek in their 2013 study.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC4

    Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission

  • Current NB Flow

    and Ethane Content

    As of 5/16/2016 Flow past Glen Ullin was

    2,512,639 million BTUs.

    As of 5/16/2016 Gross Heating Value (BTU/CF)

    was 1065.3.

    Ethane content 121.6 Mb/d

    Ventura heat limit 1065

    Badlands NGLS, LLC5

  • Current NB Flow

    and Ethane Content

    As of 5/16/2016 Flow past Port of Morgan was

    1,658,689 million BTUs.

    As of 5/16/2016 Gross Heating Value (BTU/CF)

    was 1040.6.

    Ethane content 37.8 Mb/d

    Ethane from ND producers less than 84 Mb/d

    Badlands NGLS, LLC6

  • Bakken NGL Distribution

    July 2015

    July 2015 NGL Production (less flaring, 517 MBPD gross) 388

    MBPD (exclude Palermo and Tioga)

    ONEOK 111 MBPD

    Vantage 20 MBPD

    Tioga Lateral 3 MBPD

    WBI 5 MBPD

    Northern Border 100 MBPD

    Local Consumption and Rail/Truck Transportation 135 MBPD.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC7

  • Non-Pipeline NGL

    Take Away

    Rail/Truck Transportation in excess of 100 MBPD.

    Based upon Williston Basin gas processing plant

    capabilities, the 100 MBPD probably contains not

    less than 25 MBPD, or 25% ethane.

    Ethane content of 25% is problematic for either rail or

    truck transport.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC8

  • By 2020 Physically Stranded

    Bakken NGLs Northern Border

    NB is the sole WB natural gas pipeline outlet.

    The pipeline's Ventura gas marketing limits heat

    content of the gas stream to 1065 Btu/cu.ft.

    By 2020, assuming no change in NB Canadian ethane

    content, WB ethane could result in NB exceeding

    Ventura gas BTU limits.

    As of 5/16/2016, NB BTUs at Ventura equal

    1062.2, containing 121.6 thousand barrels of ethane.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC9

  • Ethane Price

    As of May 11th, 2016

    Mont Belvieu, TX: 19 cents/gal

    Conway, KS: 15.5 cents/gal

    AECO Canada (BTU): 4.7 cents/gal

    Badlands NGLS, LLC10

  • Bakken/

    Williston

    Marcellus

    /Utica

    Transportation and processing costs.

    35

    20

    19

    32

    10.5

    (Transportation)

    5

    (Processing)

  • By 2020 Physically Stranded

    Bakken NGLs Y Grade

    ONEOK increased their ethane recovery since June 2015; however, it does not help reduce the BTU value in Northern Border.why?the Tsunami!

    Assuming 100% capacity utilization for ethane export to Canada, Illinois and Texas, ONEOK's NGL take-away capacity will need to almost double from 165 Mb/d to 240 Mb/d, which may not be possible at very low NGL prices.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC12

    Source: EIA

  • Here Comes the Tsunami

    Badlands NGLS, LLC13

  • THE TSUNAMI Canadian

    Supply Increasing

    Badlands NGLS, LLC14

  • THE TSUNAMI Canadian

    Supply Increasing

    Badlands NGLS, LLC15

    Northern

    BorderAlliance

  • Western Canadian Resources

    Montney & Duvernay

    Montney

    Conservative - Reserves 449 Tcf of natural gas, 14.5 billion bbl of NGLs and 1.1 billion bbl of oil.

    High Case - Reserves 645 Tcf of natural gas, 21 billion bbl of NGLs and 2.4 billion bbl of oil.

    Duvernay

    The Duverney Shale is thought to contain 443 Tcf of natural gas, 11.3 billion bbls of NGLs, and 61.7 billion bbls of oil.

    Liquids production in the Duverney would grow from 27,000 b/d in 2015 to more than 320,000 b/d in 2025.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC16

    Source: Alberta Geological Survey, Wood Mackenzie Ltd., AER

  • Montney & Duvernay

    Badlands NGLS, LLC17

    The Montney formation contains significant amounts

    of NGL liquids and the Duvernay formation contains

    high concentrations of condensate and NGL liquids.

    The Duvernay produces significant amounts of

    condensate. Condensate is priced at a premium to the

    WTI oil price. The price realized for NGLs is

    secondary to the pricing received from the condensate

    sales.

  • Canadian Ethane Availability

    Outlook 50% Recovery

    Badlands NGLS, LLC18

    Source: CERI Report August 2015

    263

    255

    236

    251

    263

    276

    303

    268

    231

    214

    254

    298

    281

    265

    275

    266

    321

    321 406 3

    72

    377

    378

    400

    412

    428

    453

    468

    486

    504

    530 530 530 541 561 565 559

    524 490 484

    508

    556 568 595 607

    627

    685 684

    767

    825 826 829 841 850 867

    894 915

    935 956

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    -

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

    HISTORICAL/ACTUAL OUTLOOK

    %

    kb

    /d

    Total Ethane Recovered Potential Ethane Left in Gas/Extracted in Other Markets

    Total Ethane Avaialble to Western Canada % of Ethane Recovered

  • Canadian Ethane Availability

    Outlook 70% Recovery

    Badlands NGLS, LLC19

    Source: CERI Report August 2015

    263

    255

    236

    251

    263

    276

    303

    268

    231

    214

    254

    298

    281

    265

    276

    268 282

    297

    300 303

    305

    307

    309

    311

    312

    313

    313

    314

    315

    530 530 530 541 561 565 559

    524 490 484

    508

    556 568 595 607

    627

    685 684

    767

    825 826 829 841 850 867

    894 915

    935 956

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    -

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

    HISTORICAL/ACTUAL OUTLOOK

    %

    kb

    /d

    Total Ethane Recovered Potential Ethane Left in Gas/Extracted in Other Markets

    Total Ethane Avaialble to Western Canada % of Ethane Recovered

  • Supply/Demand Imbalance

    Ethane Recovery

    2014 - 287 MBPD at 50% recovery

    2021 - 522 MBPD at 70% recovery

    Incremental production - 235 MBPD

    Incremental world scale ethane cracker supply - 2.5

    new crackers.

    Number of new Western Canadian crackers

    announced/planned - ZERO.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC20

  • Western Canada

    Ethane Market

    Ethane availability is not the issue, end-use infrastructure is.

    In 2013 about half of the available ethane is left in the gas stream. Badlands believes that percentage of recovery must increase to 70% by 2020.

    BTU content in Northern Border will reach capacity.

    More ethane crackers need to be constructed in Western North America

    To date, sole new Western North America cracker/PE licenses announced Badlands ND/Badlands Shangri-La

    Badlands NGLS, LLC21

  • Molecular Tourism

    While it is possible to understand how oil and gas producers were less concerned about their midstream business relationships when crude oil was priced at or above $100/BBL, at this time, this level of losses constitute an unsustainable burden on the Bakken E&P industry.

    Midstream/producer business models that are win/lose are unsustainable at any WTI price level.

    The bottom line is that undervalued and stranded NGLs should not be subjected to molecular tourism and transported by pipeline to distant markets solely for generating transportation and tolling fees.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC22

  • Solution Part 1

    As in the Marcellus, the North Dakota

    Oil & Gas industry needs to have an

    appropriate balance between long

    distance midstream NGL takeaway and

    value-added hydrocarbons.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC23

  • Solution Part 2

    PE value-added hydrocarbons should be

    developed as close to the wellhead as is feasible

    in order to take advantage of ND physically and

    economically stranded natural gas liquid

    sourced ethane gas; Shell and PTT Marcellus

    benefit Marcellus Oil & Gas producers and

    Enterprise and Kinder Morgan likewise are an

    integral part of economic health of Marcellus

    Oil & Gas producers.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC24

  • Badlands Gulf Coast

    Petrochemical Project

    Badlands is currently developing a near term petrochemical value added project that will be constructed on the Gulf Coast.

    Badlands believes that the all-in CAPEX requirements for the project will be $300 million and will be completed in 2018.

    Assuming some form of monetization of the petrochemical project at project Financial Close; all or a significant portion of Badlands required Phase I PE equity contribution should be available from the value of this near term petrochemical project.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC25

  • Badlands Strategy Shangri-La

    Shell Marcellus and PTT Marcellus support the idea of building polyolefins close to production.

    3 Potential Badlands Shangri-La plant sites under active consideration.

    Most of the potential sites are close to the wellhead, the railway and the water.

    Badlands has preliminary agreement with major midstream producers to supply 100% of feedstock requirements.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC26

  • Shangri-La PE Plant

    World Scale PE facilities- 1.5+ million MT of ethane feedstock ethylene and

    corresponding PE assets

    Shangri-La- on the water, existing 1.5 million MT cracker design, modular

    construction, 36 months to hydrocarbons

    Technip cracker- 1.53 million MTsame design being built for SASOL and

    Chevron Phillips

    94 Modules fabricated in Mexico- delivered on the water to Gulf Coast

    SASOL most advanced- Firm module delivered price and +/- 10% cracker

    installed cost

    Shangri-La Transportation Study confirms on the water delivery of 94

    modules.2000 construction headcount versus 9000 stick built

    headcount.time and money savings

    Badlands NGLS, LLC27

  • Technology & Agreements

    Cracker technology - Technip currently market leader and building three plants in the U.S. for Sasol, CP Chem and Dow.

    PE technology - Univation market leader in PE products owned by Dow.

    Captive Co-Monomer Manufacture Name Brand

    Product Off-Take - Name Brand

    Feedstock Agreement(s) in advanced discussion

    EPC - Agreement in principal, lump sum turn key

    Financing - advanced stage

    Site Selection - Advanced stage, Shangri-La site close to selection, North Dakota close to selection

    Badlands NGLS, LLC28

  • Shangri-La PE Plant and

    Related Assets

    Two Univation 600 KT gas phase PE reactors- up to 24

    different PE products (HDPE, bimodal HDPE, butene

    LLDPE, hexene LLDPE, metallocene LLDPE)

    According to Univation (formerly Union Carbide) Badlands will

    produce the most diverse product line of any Univation licensee

    Co-monomer facility will reduce PE production costs by

    $0.11/lb.

    Badlands NGLS, LLC29

  • North Dakota PE Plant

    Identical Univation reactors and capacity- Duplicate

    Shangri-La facility but assign different catalyst families to

    each reactor

    Own electrical generation assets

    Over 500 permanent and high paying North Dakota jobs

    North Dakota has physically and economically stranded

    natural gas liquid sourced ethane gas

    Badlands NGLS, LLC30

  • Solution Badlands ND

    The best solution for all Western North American oil and gas producers - value added polyolefins as close to the wellhead as possible

    Badlands intends to purchase C1 through C4. Crack C2 and produce polyethylene.

    Sell purity C3 and I-C4.

    Isomerize N-C4 and sell I-C4.

    Sell C5 to Canadian market for better price.

    Return lean gas to NB pipeline, thereby reducing BTU content.

    Producers/Badlands polyolefins business plan Win/Win

    Badlands NGLS, LLC31


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