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Badlands NGLs, LLC A US Ethane Project Case Study May 24, 2016 Badlands NGLS, LLC 1
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Badlands NGLs, LLC

A US Ethane Project Case Study

May 24, 2016

Badlands NGLS, LLC1

Bakken NGL & Ethane

Production Outlook - 2013

• Oil price ~ constant $100/bbl

(Fall 2013)

Williston Basin

• Gross Gas Production

• 2015 – 1.7 BCF/D

• 2020 – 2.5 BCF/D

• Ethane Production (11 GPM)

• 2015 – 175 MB/D

• 2020 – 260 MB/D

Badlands NGLS, LLC2

Source: Badlands Proprietary Bentek Energy Study

Bakken NGL & Ethane

Production Outlook - 2015

• RBN Energy forecasted 2020 Williston

Basin NGL & ethane production in July

of 2015 when oil was priced at ~$50/bbl

• Growth Case (WTI: $95/bbl by 2020)

• NGL Production – 500 MB/D

• Ethane Production – 250 MB/D

• Contraction Case (WTI: $65/bbl by 2020)

• NGL Production – 400 MB/D

• Ethane Production – 200 MB/D

Badlands NGLS, LLC3

Source: RBN Energy Drill-Down Report

Bakken NGL & Ethane

Production – July 2015

• July 2015 ND (includes Montana) Gas Production –

1.76 BCF vs. 1.7 BCF (2013)

• July 2015 Ethane Production – 250 MB/D vs. 175

MB/D (2013)

• Actual Bakken NGL and ethane production in the

summer of 2015 was greater than the amount

originally forecasted by Bentek in their 2013 study.

Badlands NGLS, LLC4

Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission

Current NB Flow

and Ethane Content

• As of 5/16/2016 – Flow past Glen Ullin was

2,512,639 million BTU’s.

• As of 5/16/2016 – Gross Heating Value (BTU/CF)

was 1065.3.

• Ethane content – 121.6 Mb/d

• Ventura heat limit – 1065

Badlands NGLS, LLC5

Current NB Flow

and Ethane Content

• As of 5/16/2016 – Flow past Port of Morgan was

1,658,689 million BTU’s.

• As of 5/16/2016 – Gross Heating Value (BTU/CF)

was 1040.6.

• Ethane content – 37.8 Mb/d

• Ethane from ND producers – less than 84 Mb/d

Badlands NGLS, LLC6

Bakken NGL Distribution

July 2015

• July 2015 NGL Production (less flaring, 517 MBPD gross) – 388

MBPD (exclude Palermo and Tioga)

• ONEOK – 111 MBPD

• Vantage – 20 MBPD

• Tioga Lateral – 3 MBPD

• WBI – 5 MBPD

• Northern Border – 100 MBPD

• Local Consumption and Rail/Truck Transportation – 135 MBPD.

Badlands NGLS, LLC7

Non-Pipeline NGL

Take Away

• Rail/Truck Transportation in excess of 100 MBPD.

• Based upon Williston Basin gas processing plant

capabilities, the 100 MBPD probably contains not

less than 25 MBPD, or 25% ethane.

• Ethane content of 25% is problematic for either rail or

truck transport.

Badlands NGLS, LLC8

By 2020 Physically Stranded

Bakken NGLs – Northern Border

• NB is the sole WB natural gas pipeline outlet.

• The pipeline's Ventura gas marketing limits heat

content of the gas stream to 1065 Btu/cu.ft.

• By 2020, assuming no change in NB Canadian ethane

content, WB ethane could result in NB exceeding

Ventura gas BTU limits.

• As of 5/16/2016, NB BTUs at Ventura equal

1062.2, containing 121.6 thousand barrels of ethane.

Badlands NGLS, LLC9

Ethane Price

As of May 11th, 2016

• Mont Belvieu, TX: 19 cents/gal

• Conway, KS: 15.5 cents/gal

• AECO Canada (BTU): 4.7 cents/gal

Badlands NGLS, LLC10

Bakken/

Williston

Marcellus

/Utica

Transportation and processing costs.

35¢

20¢

19¢

32¢

10.5¢

(Transportation)

(Processing)

By 2020 Physically Stranded

Bakken NGLs – Y Grade

• ONEOK increased their ethane recovery since June 2015; however, it does not help reduce the BTU value in Northern Border….why?…the Tsunami!

• Assuming 100% capacity utilization for ethane export to Canada, Illinois and Texas, ONEOK's NGL take-away capacity will need to almost double from 165 Mb/d to 240 Mb/d, which may not be possible at very low NGL prices.

Badlands NGLS, LLC12

Source: EIA

Here Comes the Tsunami

Badlands NGLS, LLC13

THE TSUNAMI – Canadian

Supply Increasing

Badlands NGLS, LLC14

THE TSUNAMI – Canadian

Supply Increasing

Badlands NGLS, LLC15

Northern

BorderAlliance

Western Canadian Resources

Montney & Duvernay

• Montney

• Conservative - Reserves 449 Tcf of natural gas, 14.5 billion bbl of NGLs and 1.1 billion bbl of oil.

• High Case - Reserves 645 Tcf of natural gas, 21 billion bbl of NGLs and 2.4 billion bbl of oil.

• Duvernay

• The Duverney Shale is thought to contain 443 Tcf of natural gas, 11.3 billion bbls of NGLs, and 61.7 billion bbls of oil.

• Liquids production in the Duverney would grow from 27,000 b/d in 2015 to more than 320,000 b/d in 2025.

Badlands NGLS, LLC16

Source: Alberta Geological Survey, Wood Mackenzie Ltd., AER

Montney & Duvernay

Badlands NGLS, LLC17

• The Montney formation contains significant amounts

of NGL liquids and the Duvernay formation contains

high concentrations of condensate and NGL liquids.

• The Duvernay produces significant amounts of

condensate. Condensate is priced at a premium to the

WTI oil price. The price realized for NGLs is

secondary to the pricing received from the condensate

sales.

Canadian Ethane Availability

Outlook – 50% Recovery

Badlands NGLS, LLC18

Source: CERI Report August 2015

263

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530 530 530 541 561 565 559

524 490 484

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627

685 684

767

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915 935

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0%

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HISTORICAL/ACTUAL OUTLOOK

%

kb

/d

Total Ethane Recovered Potential Ethane Left in Gas/Extracted in Other Markets

Total Ethane Avaialble to Western Canada % of Ethane Recovered

Canadian Ethane Availability

Outlook – 70% Recovery

Badlands NGLS, LLC19

Source: CERI Report August 2015

263

255

236

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303

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254

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530 530 530 541 561 565 559

524 490 484

508

556 568 595 607

627

685 684

767

825 826 829 841 850 867 894

915 935

956

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

200

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1,000

1,200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HISTORICAL/ACTUAL OUTLOOK

%

kb

/d

Total Ethane Recovered Potential Ethane Left in Gas/Extracted in Other Markets

Total Ethane Avaialble to Western Canada % of Ethane Recovered

Supply/Demand Imbalance

• Ethane Recovery

• 2014 - 287 MBPD at 50% recovery

• 2021 - 522 MBPD at 70% recovery

• Incremental production - 235 MBPD

• Incremental world scale ethane cracker supply - 2.5

new crackers.

• Number of new Western Canadian crackers

announced/planned - ZERO.

Badlands NGLS, LLC20

Western Canada

Ethane Market

• Ethane availability is not the issue, end-use infrastructure is.

• In 2013 about half of the available ethane is left in the gas stream. Badlands believes that percentage of recovery must increase to 70% by 2020.

• BTU content in Northern Border will reach capacity.

• More ethane crackers need to be constructed in Western North America

• To date, sole new Western North America cracker/PE licenses announced – Badlands ND/Badlands Shangri-La

Badlands NGLS, LLC21

Molecular Tourism

• While it is possible to understand how oil and gas producers were less concerned about their midstream business relationships when crude oil was priced at or above $100/BBL, at this time, this level of losses constitute an unsustainable burden on the Bakken E&P industry.

• Midstream/producer business models that are win/lose are unsustainable at any WTI price level.

• The bottom line is that undervalued and stranded NGLs should not be subjected to molecular tourism and transported by pipeline to distant markets solely for generating transportation and tolling fees.

Badlands NGLS, LLC22

Solution – Part 1

As in the Marcellus, the North Dakota

Oil & Gas industry needs to have an

appropriate balance between long

distance midstream NGL takeaway and

value-added hydrocarbons.

Badlands NGLS, LLC23

Solution – Part 2

• PE value-added hydrocarbons should be

developed as close to the wellhead as is feasible

in order to take advantage of ND physically and

economically stranded natural gas liquid

sourced ethane gas; Shell and PTT Marcellus

benefit Marcellus Oil & Gas producers and

Enterprise and Kinder Morgan likewise are an

integral part of economic health of Marcellus

Oil & Gas producers.

Badlands NGLS, LLC24

Badlands Gulf Coast

Petrochemical Project

• Badlands is currently developing a near term petrochemical value added project that will be constructed on the Gulf Coast.

• Badlands believes that the all-in CAPEX requirements for the project will be $300 million and will be completed in 2018.

• Assuming some form of monetization of the petrochemical project at project Financial Close; all or a significant portion of Badlands required Phase I PE equity contribution should be available from the value of this near term petrochemical project.

Badlands NGLS, LLC25

Badlands Strategy – Shangri-La

• Shell Marcellus and PTT Marcellus support the idea of building polyolefins close to production.

• 3 Potential Badlands Shangri-La plant sites under active consideration.

• Most of the potential sites are close to the wellhead, the railway and the water.

• Badlands has preliminary agreement with major midstream producers to supply 100% of feedstock requirements.

Badlands NGLS, LLC26

Shangri-La PE Plant

• World Scale PE facilities- 1.5+ million MT of ethane feedstock ethylene and

corresponding PE assets

• Shangri-La- “on the water,” existing 1.5 million MT cracker design, modular

construction, 36 months to hydrocarbons

• Technip cracker- 1.53 million MT…same design being built for SASOL and

Chevron Phillips

• 94 Modules fabricated in Mexico- delivered “on the water” to Gulf Coast

• SASOL most advanced- Firm module delivered price and +/- 10% cracker

installed cost

• Shangri-La Transportation Study confirms “on the water” delivery of 94

modules….2000 construction headcount versus 9000 stick built

headcount….time and money savings

Badlands NGLS, LLC27

Technology & Agreements

• Cracker technology - Technip – currently market leader and building three plants in the U.S. for Sasol, CP Chem and Dow.

• PE technology - Univation – market leader in PE products owned by Dow.

• Captive Co-Monomer Manufacture – “Name Brand”

• Product Off-Take - “Name Brand”

• Feedstock Agreement(s) in advanced discussion

• EPC - Agreement in principal, lump sum turn key

• Financing - advanced stage

• Site Selection - Advanced stage, Shangri-La site close to selection, North Dakota close to selection

Badlands NGLS, LLC28

Shangri-La PE Plant and

Related Assets

• Two Univation 600 KT gas phase PE reactors- up to 24

different PE products (HDPE, bimodal HDPE, butene

LLDPE, hexene LLDPE, metallocene LLDPE)

• According to Univation (formerly Union Carbide) Badlands will

produce the most diverse product line of any Univation licensee

• Co-monomer facility will reduce PE production costs by

$0.11/lb.

Badlands NGLS, LLC29

North Dakota PE Plant

• Identical Univation reactors and capacity- Duplicate

Shangri-La facility but assign different catalyst families to

each reactor

• Own electrical generation assets

• Over 500 permanent and high paying North Dakota jobs

• North Dakota has physically and economically stranded

natural gas liquid sourced ethane gas

Badlands NGLS, LLC30

Solution – Badlands ND

• The best solution for all Western North American oil and gas producers - value added polyolefins as close to the wellhead as possible

• Badlands intends to purchase C1 through C4.

• Crack C2 and produce polyethylene.

• Sell purity C3 and I-C4.

• Isomerize N-C4 and sell I-C4.

• Sell C5 to Canadian market for better price.

• Return “lean gas” to NB pipeline, thereby reducing BTU content.

• Producers/Badlands polyolefins business plan – Win/Win

Badlands NGLS, LLC31


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