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November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 1 of 13 Before reading this report, you must refer to the disclaimer on the last page. Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute :ADD Relative : BENCHMARK 2QFY18 Result: Estimate (), TP (), Rating () Regular Coverage 7% ATR in 14 Months Strong volume traction, better Euro-INR rate beneficial for margin as well, retain ADD Auto Parts © 2017Equirus All rights reserved Rating Information Price (Rs) 1,827 Target Price (Rs) 1,955 Target Date 31st Dec'18 Target Set On 9th Nov'17 Implied yrs of growth (DCF) 15 Fair Value (DCF) 1,504 Fair Value (DDM) 634 Ind Benchmark BSEAUTO Model Portfolio Position NA Stock Information Market Cap (Rs Mn) 176,634 Free Float (%) 45.63 % 52 Wk H/L (Rs) 1880/812 Avg Daily Volume (1yr) 368,597 Avg Daily Value (Rs Mn) 526 Equity Cap (Rs Mn) 193 Face Value (Rs) 2 Bloomberg Code BIL IN Ownership Recent 3M 12M Promoters 54.4 % 0.0 % -3.9 % DII 12.3 % -1.3 % -2.4 % FII 18.3 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Public 15.1 % 1.3 % 6.4 % Price % 1M 3M 12M Absolute 8.3 % 15.1 % 78.6 % Vs Industry 6.3 % 12.0 % 63.1 % APOLLOTYRE -2.2 % -13.9 % 19.0 % MRF 0.3 % -1.4 % 24.6 % Standalone Quarterly EPS forecast Rs/Share 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q EPS (17A) 15.4 25.1 19.2 14.2 EPS (18E) 15.8 21.0 21.2 24.0 BIL’s 2QFY18 volumes grew by a strong 16% yoy and 6% qoq, surprising positively in a seasonally weak quarter. Our industry interactions indicate that due to strong OEM demand in the European market, supplies of some large agri tyre players in Europe have drifted towards OEM, buoying aftermarket growth for players like BIL. We thus raise our FY18E volumes by 4% to 193k; management too has revised its guidance upwards to 190-195k from 185-190k earlier. The Euro-INR hedge rate is expected to inch up higher in 2H due to an increase in the Euro-USD rate over the last few months; this should negate some impact of rising RM prices. We increase our FY18/FY19E EPS by 11.7%/12.4% due to higher volume and margin assumptions, and retain ADD with a Dec’18 TP of Rs 1,955 set at 20x Dec’18 EPS (vs. Rs 1,739 earlier). Specialty tyre market doing well, volume growth to remain strong: Industry leader Michelin’s specialty tyre sales grew 13% yoy in Sep’17 quarter, pointing towards buoyancy in the market. While a large part of Michelin’s growth is driven by mining tyres, even the agri market has picked up. BIL management also indicated that they have seen better growth in construction and mining tyres. Ultra large mining tyre trials are going well and we expect some pick up in those volume from FY19. We upgrade our volume growth estimates for BIL given its strong qoq volume growth in a seasonally weak quarter; management has also increased its FY18 volume guidance. Margins to remain strong due to better Euro hedge rate in 2H: The Euro-INR hedge rate during 2Q was at 80; management has guided for FY18 average of 81-82, implying that 2H realizations would be around 83, which should help ASPs. On the RM cost front, management has guided for a decline in 3Q as the entire high-cost inventory has been consumed. While RM costs may increase in 4Q due to rising crude prices, we believe that a better hedge rate would keep margins healthy. Growth across geographies drives volumes; benefits of operating leverage visible: Volume growth was good across geographies driven by a revival in the market, especially in the mining and construction space. Management stated that the company’s penetration in the US is improving. RM cost per kg increased 29% yoy and despite a 7% increase in ASPs, contribution per kg declined 14% yoy. However, a 441bps yoy decline in other expenses as percentage of sales due to operating leverage led only to a marginal 1% yoy decline in EBITDA/kg. Ramp-up of the Bhuj plant is also helping BIL as operating expenses are lower at the plant and there are savings in freight cost as well, plant being close to port. Estimate Revision: Current Change from previous (%) RsMn FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E Sales 44,951 52,041 3.5% 4.1% EBITDA 12,689 16,186 6.2% 10.7% PAT 7,983 9,793 11.7% 12.4% EPS 82.6 101.3 11.7% 12.4% Consolidated Financials Rs. Mn YE Mar FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Sales 37,838 44,951 52,041 57,236 EBITDA 11,310 12,689 16,186 17,438 Depreciation 3,040 3,118 3,199 3,281 Interest Expense 220 35 30 30 Other Income 2,536 2,318 1,445 2,031 Reported PAT 8,326 7,663 9,793 10,986 Recurring PAT 7,169 7,983 9,793 10,986 Total Equity 35,429 41,754 50,093 59,392 Gross Debt 7,970 1,990 1,990 1,990 Cash 13,740 14,038 23,275 33,956 Rs Per Share FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Earnings 74.2 82.6 101.3 113.7 Book Value 367 432 518 614 Dividends 8.0 11.5 12.5 14.5 FCFF 69.9 79.0 110.8 128.2 P/E (x) 24.6 22.1 18.0 16.1 P/B (x) 5.0 4.2 3.5 3.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 13.3 9.8 8.5 ROE (%) 23 % 21 % 21 % 20 % Core ROIC (%) 17 % 19 % 27 % 30 % EBITDA Margin (%) 30 % 28 % 31 % 30 % Net Margin (%) 19 % 18 % 19 % 19 %
Transcript
Page 1: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 1 of 13

Before reading this report, you must refer to the disclaimer on the last page.

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute :ADD

Relative : BENCHMARK

2QFY18 Result: Estimate (), TP (), Rating () Regular Coverage 7% ATR in 14 Months

Strong volume traction, better Euro-INR rate beneficial for margin as well, retain ADD Auto Parts

© 2017Equirus All rights reserved

Rating Information

Price (Rs) 1,827

Target Price (Rs) 1,955

Target Date 31st Dec'18

Target Set On 9th Nov'17

Implied yrs of growth (DCF) 15

Fair Value (DCF) 1,504

Fair Value (DDM) 634

Ind Benchmark BSEAUTO

Model Portfolio Position NA

Stock Information

Market Cap (Rs Mn) 176,634

Free Float (%) 45.63 %

52 Wk H/L (Rs) 1880/812

Avg Daily Volume (1yr) 368,597

Avg Daily Value (Rs Mn) 526

Equity Cap (Rs Mn) 193

Face Value (Rs) 2

Bloomberg Code BIL IN

Ownership Recent 3M 12M

Promoters 54.4 % 0.0 % -3.9 %

DII 12.3 % -1.3 % -2.4 %

FII 18.3 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

Public 15.1 % 1.3 % 6.4 %

Price % 1M 3M 12M

Absolute 8.3 % 15.1 % 78.6 %

Vs Industry 6.3 % 12.0 % 63.1 %

APOLLOTYRE -2.2 % -13.9 % 19.0 %

MRF 0.3 % -1.4 % 24.6 %

Standalone Quarterly EPS forecast

Rs/Share 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

EPS (17A) 15.4 25.1 19.2 14.2

EPS (18E) 15.8 21.0 21.2 24.0

BIL’s 2QFY18 volumes grew by a strong 16% yoy and 6% qoq, surprising positively in a

seasonally weak quarter. Our industry interactions indicate that due to strong OEM

demand in the European market, supplies of some large agri tyre players in Europe

have drifted towards OEM, buoying aftermarket growth for players like BIL. We thus

raise our FY18E volumes by 4% to 193k; management too has revised its guidance

upwards to 190-195k from 185-190k earlier. The Euro-INR hedge rate is expected to

inch up higher in 2H due to an increase in the Euro-USD rate over the last few

months; this should negate some impact of rising RM prices. We increase our

FY18/FY19E EPS by 11.7%/12.4% due to higher volume and margin assumptions, and

retain ADD with a Dec’18 TP of Rs 1,955 set at 20x Dec’18 EPS (vs. Rs 1,739 earlier).

Specialty tyre market doing well, volume growth to remain strong: Industry leader

Michelin’s specialty tyre sales grew 13% yoy in Sep’17 quarter, pointing towards

buoyancy in the market. While a large part of Michelin’s growth is driven by mining

tyres, even the agri market has picked up. BIL management also indicated that they

have seen better growth in construction and mining tyres. Ultra large mining tyre

trials are going well and we expect some pick up in those volume from FY19. We

upgrade our volume growth estimates for BIL given its strong qoq volume growth in a

seasonally weak quarter; management has also increased its FY18 volume guidance.

Margins to remain strong due to better Euro hedge rate in 2H: The Euro-INR hedge

rate during 2Q was at 80; management has guided for FY18 average of 81-82,

implying that 2H realizations would be around 83, which should help ASPs. On the RM

cost front, management has guided for a decline in 3Q as the entire high-cost

inventory has been consumed. While RM costs may increase in 4Q due to rising crude

prices, we believe that a better hedge rate would keep margins healthy.

Growth across geographies drives volumes; benefits of operating leverage visible:

Volume growth was good across geographies driven by a revival in the market,

especially in the mining and construction space. Management stated that the

company’s penetration in the US is improving. RM cost per kg increased 29% yoy and

despite a 7% increase in ASPs, contribution per kg declined 14% yoy. However, a

441bps yoy decline in other expenses as percentage of sales due to operating

leverage led only to a marginal 1% yoy decline in EBITDA/kg. Ramp-up of the Bhuj

plant is also helping BIL as operating expenses are lower at the plant and there are

savings in freight cost as well, plant being close to port.

Estimate Revision:

Current

Change from previous

(%)

RsMn FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

Sales 44,951 52,041 3.5% 4.1%

EBITDA 12,689 16,186 6.2% 10.7%

PAT 7,983 9,793 11.7% 12.4%

EPS 82.6 101.3 11.7% 12.4%

Consolidated Financials

Rs. Mn YE Mar FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Sales 37,838 44,951 52,041 57,236

EBITDA 11,310 12,689 16,186 17,438

Depreciation 3,040 3,118 3,199 3,281

Interest Expense 220 35 30 30

Other Income 2,536 2,318 1,445 2,031

Reported PAT 8,326 7,663 9,793 10,986

Recurring PAT 7,169 7,983 9,793 10,986

Total Equity 35,429 41,754 50,093 59,392

Gross Debt 7,970 1,990 1,990 1,990

Cash 13,740 14,038 23,275 33,956

Rs Per Share FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Earnings 74.2 82.6 101.3 113.7

Book Value 367 432 518 614

Dividends 8.0 11.5 12.5 14.5

FCFF 69.9 79.0 110.8 128.2

P/E (x) 24.6 22.1 18.0 16.1

P/B (x) 5.0 4.2 3.5 3.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 13.3 9.8 8.5

ROE (%) 23 % 21 % 21 % 20 %

Core ROIC (%) 17 % 19 % 27 % 30 %

EBITDA Margin (%) 30 % 28 % 31 % 30 %

Net Margin (%) 19 % 18 % 19 % 19 %

Page 2: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 2 of 12

Earnings call takeaways

Market scenario, volumes, guidance & raw materials

The industry is growing at about 6-7%.

The company clocked its highest-ever quarterly volumes, at 49,331 tons or 16% yoy

growth for 2QFY18.

1H volumes stood at 95,658MT.

Management stated that the demand scenario continues to improve on the back of a

stable global outlook and increasing commodity price.

BIL intends to strengthen its brand by increasing its product range and expanding

geographically.

BIL is expanding its distribution network in India to strengthen domestic sales.

Management is confident of meeting its FY18 annual volume guidance of 190,000-

195,000MT and may even revise it upwards.

Full-year EBITDA margin is expected at 30%.

Geographical breakup of volumes was as follows: Europe 54%, America 17% and India

14-15%.

Currently, BIL’s global market share is around 5% and the company aims to double it

to 10% in the next 3-4 years.

Management’s focus is on improving capacity utilization.

Sequential RM price declines were not fully realized as the company utilized its high-

cost inventory.

RM prices are expected to stay range-bound, as has been the case for last two

months.

Current inventory level is at 60-65 days.

The non-agri segment is expected to yield better growth than the agri segment.

BIL is getting a good response for mining tyres, especially from the replacement

market.

The company is seeing strong operating leverage from the Bhuj plant with utilization

at 70%. The plant’s annual production is of ~19,000 tons.

BIL has guided for FY18 capex of Rs 3-3.5bn, with Rs 1bn-1.5bn for maintenance and

Rs 1.5bn for the carbon black facility.

Forex and other highlights

OEM sales form about 24-25% of total sales with replacement sales comprising the

rest.

Ultra large tyres are under evaluation with results expected from early next year.

BIL has not taken any price hikes this quarter; competitors too have refrained from

taking any hikes.

Realized forex gains pertaining to sales were at Rs 670mn for 2Q and at

Rs 1.31bn for H1.

Net forex gains stood at Rs 660mn, including realized gains of Rs 730mn and

unrealized losses of Rs 70mn.

Euro-INR realizations for H2 were likely at ~Rs 83, and are thus expected at

Rs 81-82 for FY18E and FY19E vs. 75-76 last year.

The company hedges 80-85% of its net exposure for Euro forex risk by forward

contracts of 18-24 months, and covers its dollar exposure through imports.

BIL has repaid US$ 33mn of long-term debt in the month of August. The remaining

debt will be repaid in Aug’18 when it becomes due.

The company’s gross long-term loan stands at US$ 33mn. In comparison, cash and

cash equivalents were at Rs 10.6bn, making the company net debt-free.

As part of its backward integration plan, BIL will incur a capex of Rs 1.5bn for setting

up a carbon black facility (annual capacity: 60,000MT) at the Bhuj plant. This facility

will be ready by 1QCY19.

BIL expects the plant to generate ROIC of more than 20% and 10% cost savings on

carbon-black sourcing. It will also help save on logistics and planning fronts.

Page 3: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 3 of 12

Exhibit 1: Quarterly sales volume (tons)

Source: Equirus Securities, Company

Exhibit 2: ASP/kg & raw material cost/Kg trend (Rs)

Source: Equirus Securities, Company

Exhibit 3: Quarterly EBITDA/kg (Rs)

Source: Equirus Securities, Company

Exhibit 4: Annual sales volumes &EBITDA margins

Source: Equirus Securities, Company

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1Q

FY14

2Q

FY14

3Q

FY14

4Q

FY14

1Q

FY15

2Q

FY15

3Q

FY15

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

234 244 250 245 247 250 256 261

231 238 239 251

225 225 227 227 233 241

122 121 121 119 124 124 120 120

107 95 92 88 89 86 89

102 113 111

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

FY14

2Q

FY14

3Q

FY14

4Q

FY14

1Q

FY15

2Q

FY15

3Q

FY15

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

ASP/Kg RM cost/Kg

56 51

57 56 62

69

85

112

39

81 77

90

75 78 77

65 61

77

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Q

FY14

2Q

FY14

3Q

FY14

4Q

FY14

1Q

FY15

2Q

FY15

3Q

FY15

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

56 72

81 84 112

133 138

143 154 148

172

193

213 232

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18E

FY19E

FY20E

Sales Volumes EBITDA Margin - RHS

Page 4: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 4 of 12

Quarterly performance, standalone

Rs Mn 2QFY18 2QFY18E 1QFY18 2QFY17 % Change

Comments 2QFY18E 1QFY18 2QFY17

Net Sales 11,145 10,747 10,128 9,325 4% 10% 20%

less: Forex loss/(gain) -730 0 -680 -230

Adjusted Sales 11,875 10,747 10,808 9,555 10% 10% 24%

Materials consumed 5,482 4,853 5,232 3,666 13% 5% 50%

Employee Cost 596 613 587 540 -3% 2% 10%

Other Expenses 2,017 2,257 2,147 2,045 -11% -6% -1%

Total Expenditures 8,096 7,723 7,966 6,250 5% 2% 30%

EBITDA 3,779 3,025 2,842 3,305 25% 33% 14%

Depreciation 777 767 755 725 1% 3% 7%

EBIT 3,002 2,257 2,087 2,580 33% 44% 16%

Interest 26 36 51 47 -28% -49% -45%

Other Income 95 241 243 805 -61% -61% -88%

PBT 3,071 2,462 2,278 3,338 25% 35% -8%

Tax 1,042 788 747 909 32% 39% 15%

Recurring PAT 2,030 1,674 1,531 2,429 21% 33% -16%

Extraordinaries 286 0 34 -160

Reported PAT 1,744 1,674 1,497 2,589 4% 17% -33%

EPS (Rs) 21.0 17.3 15.8 25.1 21% 33% -16%

EBITDA Margin 33.9% 28.1% 28.1% 35.4% 577 bps 585 bps -153 bps

Adj. EBITDA Margin 31.8% 28.1% 26.3% 34.6% 368 bps 553 bps -276 bps

Adj Gross Margin 53.8% 54.8% 51.6% 61.6% -101 bps 224 bps -780 bps

EBIT Margin 26.9% 21.0% 20.6% 27.7% 594 bps 633 bps -73 bps

PBT Margin 27.6% 22.9% 22.5% 35.8% 465 bps 506 bps -824 bps

PAT Margin 15.7% 15.6% 14.8% 27.8% 7 bps 87 bps -1211 bps

Tax Rate 33.9% 32.0% 32.8% 27.2% 191 bps 113 bps 667 bps

Page 5: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 5 of 12

2QFY18 2QFY18E 1QFY18 2QFY17 % Change

Comments 2QFY18E 1QFY18 2QFY17

Volume (tonnes) 49,331 45,540 46,327 42,550 8% 6% 16%

ASP/kg (Rs) 226 236 219 219 -4.3% 3.3% 3.1%

Adj ASP/Kg (Rs) 241 236 233 225 2.0% 3.2% 7.2%

RM cost/kg (Rs) 111 107 113 86 4.3% -1.6% 29.0%

EBITDA/kg (Rs) 77 66 61 78 15.3% 24.9% -1.4%

Gross Margin 53.8% 54.8% 51.6% 61.6% -101 bps 224 bps -780 bps

RM as % of Sales 46.2% 45.2% 48.4% 38.4% 101 bps -224 bps 780 bps

Empl. Cost as % of Sales 5.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.7% -68 bps -41 bps -63 bps

Other exp. as % of Sales 17.0% 21.0% 19.9% 21.4% -401 bps -288 bps -441 bps

Page 6: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 6 of 12

Company Snapshot

How we differ from Consensus

- Equirus Consensus % Diff Comment

EPS FY18E 82.6 81.0 2 % In-line with consensus

FY19E 101.3 98.8 3 %

Sales FY18E 44,951 43,596 3 %

FY19E 52,041 50,374 3 %

PAT FY18E 7,983 7,719 3 %

FY19E 9,793 9,457 4 %

Key Drivers:

FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Sales Volume (tons) 172,420 193,293 212,613 231,933

ASP (Rs/kg) 218 233 245 247

RM/kg (Rs) 92 110 110 112

EBITDA/kg (Rs) 66 66 76 75

Risk to Our View: Foreign exchange fluctuations and sharp increases in rubber prices are

major risks

Key Triggers

Fall in rubber and crude prices

Sensitivity to Key Variables % Change % Impact on EPS

Natural Rubber 10 % -5 %

NTCF 10 % -1 %

Carbon Black 10 % -1 %

DCF Valuations & Assumptions

Rf Beta Ke Term. Growth Debt/IC in Term. Yr

6.8 % 1.0 12.8 % 3.0 % 6.3 %

- FY18E FY19E FY20-22E FY23-27E FY28-32E

Sales Growth 19 % 16 % 10 % 10 % 10 %

NOPAT Margin 14 % 17 % 17 % 17 % 17 %

IC Turnover 1.35 1.60 1.84 1.90 1.90

RoIC 19.0 % 26.8 % 31.5 % 33.5 % 33.5 %

Years of strong growth 1 2 5 10 15

Valuation as on date (Rs) 759 993 1,100 1,212 1,311

Valuation as of Sept'18 870 1,139 1,262 1,390 1,504

We have valued the company at 20x Dec’18 EPS, deriving our Dec’18 PT of Rs 1,955. Our

DCF-based valuation suggests a Dec’18 TP of Rs 1,504.

Company Description:

Balkrishna Industries has a 5% global market share in off-highway tires (OTR, agri). It gets

90% of revenues from exports. It derives ~55% / 15% of its revenues from Europe and

North America. Company hedges rubber commodity and currency.

Comparable valuation Mkt Cap

Rs. Mn.

Price

Target

Target

Date

EPS P/E BPS P/B RoE Div Yield

Company Reco. CMP FY17A FY18E FY19E FY17A FY18E FY19E FY17A FY18E FY17A FY18E FY19E FY17A FY18E

Balkrishna Industries

ADD 1,827 176,634 1,955 31st Dec'18 74.2 82.6 101.3 24.6 22.1 18.0 366.5 4.2 23 % 21 % 21 % 0.5 % 0.6 %

Apollo Tyres LONG 233 118,832 279 31st Dec'18 19.2 12.3 19.1 12.3 19.2 12.4 143.2 1.4 12 % 12 % 11 % 1.3 % 1.3 %

MRF NR 65,000 275,674 NR NR 3,504.3 3,045.0 4,192.0 18.6 21.3 15.5 20,373.7 2.8 19 % 14 % 17 % 0.1 % 0.1 %

Page 7: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 7 of 12

Standalone Quarterly Earnings Forecast and Key Drivers Rs in Mn 1Q17A 2Q17A 3Q17A 4Q17A 1Q18A 2Q18A 3Q18E 4Q18E 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Revenue 9,420 9,325 8,822 10,029 10,128 11,145 11,318 12,408 12,533 13,269 12,594 13,693 37,883 44,998 52,090 57,287

Materials consumed 3,846 3,666 3,584 4,718 5,232 5,482 4,995 5,476 5,609 5,938 5,636 6,128 15,813 21,184 23,312 25,987

Employee Cost 546 540 562 595 587 596 611 645 652 663 655 712 2,243 2,440 2,682 2,964

Other Expenditure 2,119 2,045 1,896 2,162 2,147 2,017 2,150 2,357 2,381 2,521 2,393 2,602 8,508 8,672 9,897 10,885

EBITDA 2,910 3,075 2,780 2,554 2,162 3,049 3,561 3,929 3,891 4,146 3,910 4,251 11,319 12,701 16,199 17,452

Depreciation 775 725 788 751 755 777 773 778 783 788 793 798 3,038 3,082 3,163 3,245

EBIT 2,136 2,350 1,992 1,803 1,407 2,272 2,789 3,151 3,108 3,358 3,117 3,453 8,280 9,619 13,036 14,206

Interest 66 47 49 53 51 26 36 36 36 36 36 36 214 150 144 144

Other Income 207 1,035 632 617 923 825 261 299 297 340 370 429 2,491 2,308 1,435 2,021

PBT 2,277 3,338 2,574 2,367 2,278 3,071 3,014 3,415 3,369 3,662 3,450 3,845 10,557 11,778 14,327 16,083

Tax 786 909 718 993 747 1,042 964 1,093 1,078 1,172 1,104 1,230 3,406 3,846 4,585 5,146

Recurring PAT 1,491 2,429 1,857 1,375 1,531 2,030 2,049 2,322 2,291 2,490 2,346 2,615 7,151 7,933 9,742 10,936

Extraordinary -154 -160 -33 -811 34 286 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,158 320 0 0

Reported PAT 1,645 2,589 1,890 2,185 1,497 1,744 2,049 2,322 2,291 2,490 2,346 2,615 8,309 7,613 9,742 10,936

EPS (Rs) 15.42 25.13 19.21 14.22 15.84 21.00 21.20 24.02 23.70 25.76 24.27 27.05 73.99 82.07 100.79 113.14

Key Drivers

Sales Tonnage ('000 MT) 43 43 40 46 46 49 47 51 51 54 51 56 172 193 213 232

Realization (Rs/kg) 218 219 218 217 219 226 243 243 245 245 245 245 218 233 245 247

Natural Rubber (Rs/kg) 111 111 115 130 150 142 137 137 141 141 141 141 117 141 141 145

Synthetic Rubber (Rs/kg) 106 106 110 125 145 137 132 132 136 136 136 136 112 136 136 140

NTCF (Rs/kg) 200 206 206 215 225 230 230 230 232 232 232 232 207 229 232 234

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Sequential Growth (%)

Revenue 8 % -1 % -5 % 14 % 1 % 10 % 2 % 10 % 1 % 6 % -5 % 9 % - - - -

Materials consumed 9 % -5 % -2 % 32 % 11 % 5 % -9 % 10 % 2 % 6 % -5 % 9 % - - - -

EBITDA 33 % 6 % -10 % -8 % -15 % 41 % 17 % 10 % -1 % 7 % -6 % 9 % - - - -

EBIT 46 % 10 % -15 % -9 % -22 % 61 % 23 % 13 % -1 % 8 % -7 % 11 % - - - -

Recurring PAT 10 % 63 % -24 % -26 % 11 % 33 % 1 % 13 % -1 % 9 % -6 % 11 % - - - -

EPS 10 % 63 % -24 % -26 % 11 % 33 % 1 % 13 % -1 % 9 % -6 % 11 % - - - -

Yearly Growth (%)

Revenue 10 % 15 % 26 % 15 % 8 % 20 % 28 % 24 % 24 % 19 % 11 % 10 % 16 % 19 % 16 % 10 %

EBITDA 165 % 20 % 71 % 17 % -26 % -1 % 28 % 54 % 80 % 36 % 10 % 8 % 35 % 12 % 28 % 8 %

EBIT 370 % 26 % 131 % 23 % -34 % -3 % 40 % 75 % 121 % 48 % 12 % 10 % 49 % 16 % 36 % 9 %

Recurring PAT 47 % 129 % 94 % 2 % 3 % -16 % 10 % 69 % 50 % 23 % 14 % 13 % 63 % 11 % 23 % 12 %

EPS 47 % 129 % 94 % 2 % 3 % -16 % 10 % 69 % 50 % 23 % 14 % 13 % 63 % 11 % 23 % 12 %

Margin (%)

EBITDA 31 % 33 % 32 % 25 % 21 % 27 % 31 % 32 % 31 % 31 % 31 % 31 % 30 % 28 % 31 % 30 %

EBIT 23 % 25 % 23 % 18 % 14 % 20 % 25 % 25 % 25 % 25 % 25 % 25 % 22 % 21 % 25 % 25 %

PBT 24 % 36 % 29 % 24 % 22 % 28 % 27 % 28 % 27 % 28 % 27 % 28 % 28 % 26 % 28 % 28 %

PAT 16 % 26 % 21 % 14 % 15 % 18 % 18 % 19 % 18 % 19 % 19 % 19 % 19 % 18 % 19 % 19 %

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Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 8 of 12

Consolidated Financials

P&L (Rs Mn) FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Balance Sheet (Rs Mn) FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Cash Flow (Rs Mn) FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E

Revenue 37,838 44,951 52,041 57,236 Equity Capital 193 193 193 193 PBT 10,586 11,854 14,402 16,157

Op. Expenditure 26,529 32,261 35,855 39,798 Reserve 35,235 41,561 49,900 59,199 Depreciation 3,040 3,118 3,199 3,281

EBITDA 11,310 12,689 16,186 17,438 Networth 35,429 41,754 50,093 59,392 Others 1,158 -320 0 0

Depreciation 3,040 3,118 3,199 3,281 Long Term Debt 7,970 1,990 1,990 1,990 Taxes Paid 3,418 3,871 4,610 5,171

EBIT 8,270 9,571 12,987 14,157 Def Tax Liability 3,805 3,806 3,806 3,806 Change in WC -2,714 -1,555 -690 -690

Interest Expense 220 35 30 30 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Operating C/F 8,653 9,226 12,301 13,578

Other Income 2,536 2,318 1,445 2,031 Account Payables 3,744 6,203 6,826 7,610 Capex -2,043 -1,610 -1,610 -1,210

PBT 10,586 11,854 14,402 16,157 Other Curr Liabi 6,943 112 130 143 Change in Invest 0 0 0 0

Tax 3,418 3,871 4,610 5,171 Total Liabilities & Equity 57,891 53,865 62,845 72,941 Others 0 0 0 0

PAT bef. MI & Assoc. 7,169 7,983 9,793 10,986 Net Fixed Assets 28,411 26,248 24,259 22,188 Investing C/F -2,043 -1,610 -1,610 -1,210

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Capital WIP 1,097 0 0 0 Change in Debt -4,932 -5,980 0 0

Profit from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 Others 2,051 3,802 4,202 4,202 Change in Equity 285 0 0 0

Recurring PAT 7,169 7,983 9,793 10,986

Inventory 4,761 4,557 5,275 5,802 Others 205 -1,338 -1,454 -1,687

Extraordinaires -1,158 320 0 0 Account Receivables 4,118 7,143 8,270 9,095 Financing C/F -4,442 -7,318 -1,454 -1,687

Reported PAT 8,326 7,663 9,793 10,986 Other Current Assets 3,714 -1,923 -2,437 -2,302 Net change in cash 2,167 298 9,237 10,681

FDEPS (Rs) 74.2 82.6 101.3 113.7 Cash 13,740 14,038 23,275 33,956 RoE (%) 23 % 21 % 21 % 20 %

DPS (Rs) 8.0 11.5 12.5 14.5 Total Assets 57,891 53,865 62,845 72,941

RoIC (%) 16 % 17 % 19 % 18 %

CEPS (Rs) 105.6 114.8 134.4 147.6 Non-cash Working Capital 1,906 3,461 4,152 4,842

Core RoIC (%) 17 % 19 % 27 % 30 %

FCFPS (Rs) 69.9 79.0 110.8 128.2 Cash Conv Cycle 18.4 28.1 29.1 30.9 Div Payout (%) 11 % 17 % 15 % 15 %

BVPS (Rs) 366.5 432.0 518.2 614.4 WC Turnover 19.9 13.0 12.5 11.8 P/E 24.6 22.1 18.0 16.1

EBITDAM (%) 30 % 28 % 31 % 30 % FA Turnover 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 P/B 5.0 4.2 3.5 3.0

PATM (%) 19 % 18 % 19 % 19 % Net D/E -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 P/FCFF 26.1 23.1 16.5 14.3

Tax Rate (%) 32 % 33 % 32 % 32 % Revenue/Capital Employed 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 EV/EBITDA 15.4 13.3 9.8 8.5

Sales Growth (%) 15 % 19 % 16 % 10 %

Capital Employed/Equity 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1

EV/Sales 4.6 3.7 3.1 2.6

FDEPS Growth (%) 61 % 11 % 23 % 12 %

Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 %

TTM P/E vs. 2 yr forward EPS growth TTM EV/EBITDA vs. 2 yr forward EBITDA growth TTM P/B vs. 2 yr forward RoE

6x

9x

12x

15X

20x

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Ma

r/0

4Se

p/0

4M

ar/

05

Sep

/05

Ma

r/0

6Se

p/0

6M

ar/

07

Sep

/07

Ma

r/0

8Se

p/0

8M

ar/

09

Sep

/09

Ma

r/1

0Se

p/1

0M

ar/

11

Sep

/11

Ma

r/1

2Se

p/1

2M

ar/

13

Sep

/13

Ma

r/1

4Se

p/1

4M

ar/

15

Sep

/15

Ma

r/1

6Se

p/1

6M

ar/

17

Sep

/17

Ma

r/1

8Se

p/1

8M

ar/

19

EPS Growth

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

Mar

/04

Sep/

04M

ar/0

5Se

p/05

Mar

/06

Sep/

06M

ar/0

7Se

p/07

Mar

/08

Sep/

08M

ar/0

9Se

p/09

Mar

/10

Sep/

10M

ar/1

1Se

p/11

Mar

/12

Sep/

12M

ar/1

3Se

p/13

Mar

/14

Sep/

14M

ar/1

5Se

p/15

Mar

/16

Sep/

16M

ar/1

7Se

p/17

Mar

/18

Sep/

18M

ar/1

94x

6x

8x

10x

12x

EBITDA Growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Ma

r/0

4N

ov/

04

Jul/

05

Ma

r/0

6N

ov/

06

Jul/

07

Ma

r/0

8N

ov/

08

Jul/

09

Ma

r/1

0N

ov/

10

Jul/

11

Mar

/12

No

v/1

2Ju

l/1

3M

ar/

14

No

v/1

4Ju

l/1

5M

ar/

16

No

v/1

6Ju

l/1

7M

ar/

18

No

v/1

8

RoE

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

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Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 9 of 12

Historical Consolidated Financials

P&L (Rs Mn) FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A

Balance Sheet (Rs Mn) FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A

Cash Flow (Rs Mn) FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A

Revenue 37,719 38,168 32,895 37,838 Equity Capital 193 193 193 193 PBT 7,062 7,133 6,743 10,586

Op. Expenditure 28,822 28,236 24,671 26,529 Reserve 18,757 22,566 27,555 35,235 Depreciation 1,703 2,437 2,823 3,040

EBITDA 8,896 9,933 8,223 11,310 Networth 18,951 22,760 27,748 35,429 Others 379 437 1,421 1,158

Depreciation 1,703 2,437 2,823 3,040 Long Term Debt 24,120 23,574 12,902 7,970 Taxes Paid 1,772 2,125 2,342 3,418

EBIT 7,193 7,496 5,400 8,270 Def Tax Liability 2,212 1,903 2,669 3,805 Change in WC -1,355 1,959 2,084 -2,714

Interest Expense 273 476 395 220 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Operating C/F 6,017 9,841 10,729 8,653

Other Income 141 114 1,737 2,536 Account Payables 4,648 4,595 3,411 3,744 Capex -8,858 -3,699 -2,387 -2,043

PBT 7,062 7,133 6,743 10,586 Other Curr Liabi 290 354 7,253 6,943 Change in Invest -3,668 -771 -3,151 0

Tax 2,316 2,408 2,285 3,418 Total Liabilities & Equity 50,221 53,185 53,984 57,891 Others 230 101 18 0

PAT bef. MI & Assoc. 4,746 4,726 4,457 7,169 Net Fixed Assets 23,890 25,731 28,588 28,411 Investing C/F -12,296 -4,369 -5,520 -2,043

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Capital WIP 5,656 4,763 2,311 1,097 Change in Debt 4,319 -608 -4,985 -4,932

Profit from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 Others 5,887 2,256 1,657 2,051 Change in Equity 0 8 0 285

Recurring PAT 4,746 4,726 4,457 7,169 Inventory 5,684 4,114 3,983 4,761 Others -669 -702 -1,269 205

Extraordinaires 0 0 40 -1,158 Account Receivables 6,138 5,797 3,850 4,118 Financing C/F 3,649 -1,302 -6,254 -4,442

Reported PAT 4,746 4,726 4,418 8,326 Other Current Assets 2,796 2,317 2,024 3,714 Net change in cash -2,631 4,170 -1,045 2,167

EPS (Rs) 49.1 48.9 46.1 74.2 Cash 170 8,207 11,573 13,740

RoE (%) 28 % 23 % 18 % 23 %

DPS (Rs) 2.0 2.4 5.6 8.0

Total Assets 50,221 53,185 53,984 57,891

RoIC (%) 12 % 11 % 10 % 16 %

CEPS (Rs) 66.7 74.1 75.3 105.6 Non-cash Working Capital 9,680 7,279 -807 1,906 Core RoIC (%) 12 % 12 % 10 % 17 %

FCFPS (Rs) -63.1 59.9 56.6 69.9 Cash Conv Cycle 93.7 69.6 -9.0 18.4 Div Payout (%) 5 % 6 % 14 % 11 %

BVPS (Rs) 196.1 235.5 287.1 366.5 WC Turnover 3.9 5.2 -40.7 19.9

P/E 37.2 37.4 39.6 24.6

EBITDAM (%) 24 % 26 % 25 % 30 % FA Turnover 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 P/B 9.3 7.8 6.4 5.0

PATM (%) 13 % 12 % 14 % 19 % Net D/E 1.3 0.7 0.0 -0.2 P/FCFF -29.0 30.5 32.3 26.1

Tax Rate (%) 33 % 34 % 34 % 32 % Revenue/Capital Employed 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 EV/EBITDA 23.0 19.7 22.3 15.4

Sales growth (%) 11 % 1 % -14 % 15 %

Capital Employed/Equity 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.4

EV/Sales 5.4 5.1 5.6 4.6

FDEPS growth (%) 36 % 0 % -6 % 61 %

Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.5 %

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Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 10 of 12

Equirus Securities

Research Analysts Sector/Industry Email

Equity Sales E-mail

Abhishek Shindadkar IT Services [email protected] 91-22-43320643 Vishad Turakhia [email protected] 91-22-43320633

Ashutosh Tiwari Auto, Metals & Mining [email protected] 91-79-61909517 SubhamSinha [email protected] 91-22-43320631

Depesh Kashyap Mid-Caps [email protected] 91-79-61909528 SwetaSheth [email protected] 91-22-43320634

Devam Modi Power & Infrastructure [email protected] 91-79-61909516 Viral Desai [email protected] 91-22-43320635

Dhaval Dama FMCG, Mid-Caps [email protected] 91-79-61909518 Dealing Room E-mail

Manoj Gori Consumer Durables [email protected] 91-79-61909523 Ashish Shah [email protected] 91-22-43320662

Maulik Patel Oil and Gas [email protected] 91-79-61909519 IleshSavla [email protected] 91-22-43320666

PrafulBohra Pharmaceuticals [email protected] 91-79-61909532 Manoj Kejriwal [email protected] 91-22-43320663

Rohan Mandora Banking & Financial Services [email protected] 91-79-61909529 Dharmesh Mehta [email protected] 91-22-43320661

Associates E-mail SandipAmrutiya [email protected] 91-22-43320660

Ankit Choudhary [email protected] 91-79-61909533 Compliance Officer E-mail

Bharat Celly [email protected] 91-79-61909524 Jay Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909561

Harshit Patel [email protected] 91-79-61909522 Corporate Communications E-mail

Meet Chande [email protected] 91-79-61909513 Mahdokht Bharda [email protected] 91-22-43320647 Parva Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909521

Pranav Mehta [email protected] 91-79-61909514

Ronak Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909525

Samkit Shah [email protected] 91-79-61909520

Shreepal Doshi [email protected] 91-79-61909541

Varun Baxi [email protected] 91-79-61909527

Vikas Jain [email protected] 91-79-61909531

Rating & Coverage Definitions: Absolute Rating • LONG : Over the investment horizon, ATR >= Ke for companies with Free Float market cap > Rs 5 billion and ATR >= 20% for rest of the companies • ADD: ATR >= 5% but less than Ke over investment horizon • REDUCE: ATR >= negative 10% but <5% over investment horizon • SHORT: ATR < negative 10% over investment horizon Relative Rating • OVERWEIGHT: Likely to outperform the benchmark by at least 5% over investment horizon • BENCHMARK: likely to perform in line with the benchmark • UNDERWEIGHT: likely to under-perform the benchmark by at least 5% over investment horizon Investment Horizon Investment Horizon is set at a minimum 3 months to maximum 18 months with target date falling on last day of a calendar quarter. Lite vs. Regular Coverage vs. Spot Coverage We aim to keep our rating and estimates updated at least once a quarter for Regular Coverage stocks. Generally, we would have access to the company and we would maintain detailed financial model for Regular coverage companies. We intend to publish updates on Lite coverage stocks only an opportunistic basis and subject to our ability to contact the management. Our rating and estimates for Lite coverage stocks may not be current. Spot coverage is meant for one-off coverage of a specific company and in such cases, earnings forecast and target price are optional. Spot coverage is meant to stimulate discussion rather than provide a research opinion.

Registered Office:

Equirus Securities Private Limited

Unit No. 1201, 12th Floor, C Wing, Marathon Futurex,

N M Joshi Marg, Lower Parel,

Mumbai-400013.

Tel. No: +91 – (0)22 – 4332 0600

Fax No: +91- (0)22 – 4332 0601

Corporate Office:

3rd floor, House No. 9,

Magnet Corporate Park, Near Zydus Hospital, B/H Intas Sola Bridge,

S.G. Highway Ahmedabad-380054

Gujarat

Tel. No: +91 (0)79 - 6190 9550

Fax No: +91 (0)79 – 6190 9560

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Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 11 of 12

© 2017 Equirus Securities Private Limited. All rights reserved. For Private Circulation only. This report or any portion hereof may not

be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Equirus Securities Private Limited

Analyst Certification

I, Ashutosh Tiwari, author to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also

certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Disclosures

Equirus Securities Private Limited (ESPL) having Corporate Identification Number U65993MH2007PTC176044 is registered in India with Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a trading member on the

Capital Market (Reg. No. INB231301731), Futures & Options Segment (Reg. No.INF231301731) of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and on Cash Segment (Reg. No.INB011301737) of Bombay Stock

Exchange Limited (BSE).ESPL is also registered with SEBI as Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 (Reg. No. INH000001154), as a Portfolio Manager under SEBI (Portfolio Managers

Regulations, 1993 (Reg. No. INP000005216) and as a Depository Participant of the Central Depository Services (India) Limited (Reg. No. IN-DP-324-2017). There are no disciplinary actions taken by any regulatory

authority against ESPL. ESPL is a subsidiary of Equirus Capital Pvt. Ltd. (ECPL) which is registered with SEBI as Category I Merchant Banker and provides investment banking services including but not limited to

merchant banking services, private equity, mergers & acquisitions and structured finance.

As ESPL and its associates are engaged in various financial services business, it might have: - (a) received compensation (except in connection with the preparation of this report) from the subject company for

investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services in the past twelve months;(b) managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; or (c) have

received a mandate from the subject company; or (d) might have other financial, business or other interests in entities including the subject company (ies) mentioned in this Report. ESPL & its associates, their

directors and employees may from time to time have positions or options in the company and buy or sell the securities of the company (ies) mentioned herein. ESPL and its associates collectively do not own (in

their proprietary position) 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company mentioned in the report as the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. ESPL or its Analyst or

Associates did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ESPL nor

Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or

brokerage service transactions. ESPL has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

The Research Analyst engaged in preparation of this Report:-

(a) has not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (b) has not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months;

(c) has not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (d) has not received any compensation for products

or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (e) has not received any compensation or other benefits from the

subject company or third party in connection with the research report; (f) might have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company; (g) is not engaged in market making activity for the

subject company.

This document is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,

publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ESPL and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein

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on this report. The information and opinions contained herein is from publicly available data or based on information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable but ESPL provides no guarantee as

to its accuracy or completeness. The information contained herein is as on date of this report, and is subject to change or modification and any such changes could impact our interpretation of relevant

information contained herein. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ESPL and its affiliates, their directors and employees are under no obligation to update or keep the

information current. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent ESPL and its group companies from doing so. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended

to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an

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consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. ESPL/its affiliates do and seek to do business with

companies covered in its research report. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have conflict of interest.

Page 12: Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute : Relative : BENCHMARK ADD …… · 2017. 11. 16. · Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months November

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Absolute –ADD Relative – BENCHMARK 7% ATR in 14 Months

November 9, 2017 Analyst: Ashutosh Tiwari [email protected] (+91-8128694112, +91 79-40504017) Page 12 of 12

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at http://www.nseindia.com/ChartApp/install/charts/mainpage.jsp and www.bseindia.com (Choose a company from the list on the browser and select the

“three years” period in the price chart).

Disclosure of Interest statement for the subject Company Yes/No If Yes, nature of such interest

Research Analyst’ or Relatives’ financial interest No

Research Analyst’ or Relatives’ actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more No

Research Analyst’ or Relatives’ material conflict of interest No

Disclaimer for U.S. Persons

ESPL/its affiliates are not a registered broker–dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the“1934 act”) and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition Equirus is not a

registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the “Acts”), and under appl icable state laws in the United States.

Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by Equirus, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended

for U.S. persons. The information contained in this Report is not intended for any person who is a resident of the United States of America or a resident of any jurisdiction, the laws of which imposes prohibition

on soliciting the securities business in that jurisdiction without going through the registration requirements and/ or prohibit the use of any information contained in this report. This Report and its respective

contents do not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities or solicitation of any investments or investment services and/or shall not be considered as an advertisement tool. "U.S.

Persons" are generally defined as a natural person, residing in the United States or any entity organized or incorporated under the laws of the United States. US Citizens living abroad may also be deemed "US

Persons" under certain rules.


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