Banco Central de Islandia - Datos macroeconómicos de 2011

8/4/2019 Banco Central de Islandia - Datos macroeconmicos de 2011

1/23

Economic Indicators

Central Bank of IcelandAugust 2011


2/23

2

I Inflation and inflation expectations

%

Components of CPI inflation

I-4

CPIImported goods excl. alcohol, tobacco and petrol Petrol

HousingPrivate services Other components

Domestic goods excluding agricultural products

Contribution of individual items to 12-month inflation. Monthly data.

Source: Statistics Iceland.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2010200920082007 2011

Price developments: goods

I-5

12-month % change

Monthly data.


Imported goods excl. alcohol and tobacco

Domestic goods excl. agricultural products

CPI

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

I-6

Price developments: housing and services

12-month % change

Monthly data.


Public servicesCPI HousingPrivate services

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Seasonally adjusted inflation

I-3

%

This inflation measurement is very volatile but indicates how inflation pressuresare developing. Monthly data.

Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Three-month inflation rate Annualised three-month inflation rate

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 2011

Inflation: various measurements

I-2

12-month % change

Monthly data.


Index excluding effects of lower indirect taxes CPICPI excluding housingCore inflation 3 excluding tax effects

-2

02468

101214161820

22

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 2011

I-1Consumer price inflation and core inflation

12-month % change

Core inflation 1

Overall index and measures of underlying inflation. Core Index 1 excludesprices of agricultural products and petrol, and Core Index 2 excludes prices ofpublic services as well. Core Index 3 is Core Index 2 excluding the effects ofchanges in real interest rates on the housing component of the CPI.

Monthly data.Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Core inflation 2

Core inflation 3 Inflation targetCPI

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1618

20

2010200920082006200520042003200220012000 2007 2011


3/23

3

I-7

Price developments: housing

12-month % change

Monthly data.


Repair and maintenance Paid rent Imputed rentMarket price of housing

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

4050

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000


Inflation expectations of businesses andhouseholds one year ahead and current inflation

I-12

12-month inflation (%)

1. Inflation expectations according to surveys carried out by Capacent Gallup.Respondents are asked about inflation 12 months ahead and median figuresare used. Businesses' inflation expectations were measured on an irregularbasis before Q3/2006 until then, measurements are interpolated.Quarterly data.

Sources: Capacent Gallup, Statistics Iceland.

Inflation Household inflation expectations

Businesses' inflation expectations1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20102009200820072006200520042003 2011

I-11

Breakeven inflation rate

% Latest: 22 August

Breakeven inflation rate at month-end, is calculated from 1) RIKB 13 0517

and HFF 150914; 2) RIKB 19 0226 and HFF 150224; and 3) RIKB 25 0612and HFF 150434.

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Breakeven inflation rate1

Breakeven inflation rate3Breakeven inflation rate2

Inflation target

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

201120102009200820072006200504

I-9

Price and wage developments: wages, inflation and services

12-month % change

Monthly data.


CPI Public servicesPrivate services Wage index

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Price developments: various components

I-8

12-month % change

Monthly data.


Petrol New cars and spare partsGroceries

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Price developments: goods, housing and services

I-10

March 1997 = 100

Monthly data.


CPIImputed house rent

Imported goods excl. alcohol and tobaccoPaid house rent Private services

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

1009080706050403020100999897 11


4/23

44

II Output and demand


II-1

Gross domestic product

Percentage change on a year earlier

Contribution of individual components to output growth. Change on a yearearlier. Annual data.


Private consumption Public consumptionGross fixed capital formationGDP Net trade

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1110090807060504030201009998

II-2

Output growth and national expenditure


Quarterly data.


Output growth National expenditure

-30-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1110090807060504030201009998

Import price levels and exchange rate developments

I-13

Monthly average, March 1997 = 100

Import-weighted exchange rate index and price of imported goods in the CPI.The import exchange rate index is published with a one-month time lag, asprice level measurements are carried out at mid-month.

Monthly dataSources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Import-weighted exchange rate index (March 1997 = 100)Imported goods excluding alcohol and tobacco

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

I-15

Distribution of price increases in the CPI

12-month % change%

The percentage of goods categories that increase in price is a 3-monthcentred average. Monthly data.


CPI (right) Categories showing increase (left)

0

1020

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

24

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

20112010200620052004200320022001 2007 2008 2009

Inflation in Iceland and Europe

I-16

12-month % change

Harmonised indices of consumer prices. Monthly data.


Iceland Euro area Maastricht reference value

-2024

68

1012141618202224

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

I-14

Price level and exchange rate developments

Month-on-month changes (%)

The exchange rate index is calculated based on a narrow trade basket. Monthly data.


Consumer price index (left)Exchange rate index (right)

Month-on-month changes (%)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

34

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1520

201120102009200820072006200520042003


5/23

5

II-7

Turnover according to VAT returns: several components

B.kr.

Deflated by the CPI. Retail sector is deflated by the CPI excluding housing andpetrol, and construction sector is deflated by the CPI. Seasonally adjusted datafor two-month periods.


Construction Retail Services

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

11201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999


II-4

Gross fixed capital formation

Contribution of individual items to gross capital formation. Quarterly data.


Businesses

Residential

Public sectorTotal gross fixed capital formation

-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060

1110090806 070504030201009998


II-6

Percentage change in real terms on a year earlier

Turnover according to VAT returns

Deflated by the CPI. Seasonally adjusted data for two-month periods.


Domestic sector (left)

Total turnover, index (right) Total turnover (left)

1998=100

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

11201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999

II-5


Foreign trade

Quarterly data.


Exports of goods and servicesImports of goods and services

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1110090807060504030201009998

II-3

Private consumption, public consumptionand gross fixed capital formation


Quarterly data.


Gross fixed capital formationPrivate consumption Public consumption

-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050

1110090807060504030201009998

II-8

Payment card turnover

12-month % change 12-month % change

Debit and credit card turnover deflated by the CPI less housing costs.Monthly data.


Household domestic payment card turnover year-to-date (right)

Household domestic credit card turnover (right)Retail debit card turnover (left)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-32

-24

-16

-8

0

8

16

24

32

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002


6/23

6


II-13

Groceries turnoverNov. 2001 = 100 Percentage change on a year earlier

Deflated by price of groceries in CPI. Monthly data.

Sources: Icelandic Centre for Retail Studies, Central Bank of Iceland.

12-month change on 3-month moving averages (right)Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving averages (left)Average year-to-date (right)

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

201120102009200820072006200520042003

II-12

Foreign payment card turnover in Iceland

M.kr. 12-month % change

Foreign payment card turnover deflated by the CPI less housing costs.Monthly data.


Total foreign payment card turnover in 2009 (right)Total foreign payment card turnover in 2010 (right)Total foreign payment card turnover in 2011 (right)

2008 (left) 2009 (left) 2010 (left) 2011 (left)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec.Nov.Oct.Sept.Aug.JulyJuneMayApr.Mar.Feb.Jan.

II-9

Payment card turnover

12-month % change 12-month % change

Debit and credit card turnover deflated by the CPI less housing costs.Turnover abroad is deflated by the exchange rate index. Monthly data.


-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050

60

-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025

30

Household domestic payment card turnover year-to-date (right)Household domestic payment card turnover (right)Household turnover abroad (left)

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

II-10

Total household payment card turnover

Change between quarters (%) Change on a year earlier (%)

Seasonally adjusted debit and credit card turnover deflated by the CPI lesshousing costs. Quarterly data. Data for Q3 2011 are for July.


Change between quarters (left)Change on a year earlier (right)

-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468

10

-32-28-24-20-16-12-8-40481216

20

20102009200820072006200520042003

.

2011

II-14

Private consumption, groceries and payment card turnover

Volume change on a year earlier (%)

Quarterly data. Data for Q3 2011 are for July.

Sources: Icelandic Centre for Retail Studies, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of

Iceland.

Household's domestic payment card turnoverHousehold's payment card turnover

Groceries turnoverPrivate consumption growth

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

20102009200820072006200520042003

.

.

.

11

II-11

Household domestic payment card turnover

Change between quarters (%) Change on a year earlier (%)

Seasonally adjusted domestic debit and credit card turnover deflated by theCPI less housing costs. Quarterly data. Data for Q3 2011 are for July.


Change between quarters (left)Change on a year earlier (right)

-12

-10

-8-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-28

-24

-20-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20102009200820072006200520042003

.

2011


7/23

7


II-17

Indices of expected big-ticket purchases

Index Index

Expected purchases of cars (left)

Indices of expected big-ticket purchases are based on Capacent Gallupconsumer sentiment survey. The index for expected big-ticket purchases is anaverage of the other three indices. Quarterly data.

Source: Capacent Gallup.

Expected big-ticket purchases (left)

Expected purchases of travel (right)

Expected purchases of realestate property (left)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 201120092008200720062005200420032002

II-18

Capacent Gallup Business Sentiment Indices

Index Ratio (%)

Strongly positive (right)

Current situation (left)Sentiments towards situation in six months (left)

Positive (right)

The Business sentiment indices are based upon Capacent Gallup's survey of thelargest companies in Iceland. The columns show the sentiments towards thecurrent situation in the economy.


Strongly negative (right) Negative (right)

20102009200820072006050403020

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

-100-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

2011

II-15

12-month % change

Cement sales

Thous. tonnes

3-month moving average. Monthly data.

Sources: Aalborg Portland hf., BM Vall, Sementsverksmijan hf., Central

Bank of Iceland.

Total cement sales (left) Cement sales excluding heavy industry (left)Cement sales (seasonally adjusted) (right)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80100

120

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2832

36

09 10 11080706050403020100999897

II-16

12-month % change

Importation and new registration of motor vehicles

Number

3-month moving average. New motor vehicle registrations include new andused vehicles in all categories (passenger cars, motor coaches, and deliveryand transport vehicles). Monthly data.

Sources: Blgreinasambandi, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Car registrations (left)Car imports (m.kr.) (left)Car registrations, seasonally adjusted (right)

-100-80-60-40-20

020406080

100120140

160

03006009001,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,7003,0003,3003,600

3,900

09 10 1108070605040302010098 9997

II-19

Consumer sentiment (Gallup)

Index %

Negative for current economic situation (right)

Current economic situation (left)Expectations 6 months ahead (left)Positive for current economic situation (right)

Monthly data.


Consumer Sentiment Index (left)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2010200920082007200620052004200320022001 2011

II-20

Private consumption and Gallup Consumer

Sentiment IndexIndex Volume change on a year earlier (%)

Private consumption (right)Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index expectations six months ahead (left)

Gallup Consumer Sentiment Index (left)

Points show value for July. Quarterly data.

Sources: Capacent Gallup, Statistics Iceland.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

200920082007200620052004200320022001 2010 2011

.

.


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8

III Foreign trade and external economic conditions

III-5

B.kr.

Components of merchandise exports

Marine and agricultural products

Ships, aircraft and other products

Merchandise export values at constant exchange rates based on monthlyaverage export-weighted exchange rate index (broad trade basket).Monthly data.


Manufacturing products

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10 1109080706050403020100

III-6

B.kr.

Components of merchandise imports

Merchandise import values at constant exchange rates based onimport-weighted exchange rate index (broad trade basket).Monthly data.


Consumer goods

Fuel, lubricants and other products

Industrial supplies Capital goods

Transport equipement

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 112009200820072006200520042003200220012000

III-2

Components of current account

B.kr.

Trade balance Services balance Income balance

Net current transfers are included in factor income. Quarterly data.


-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

III-1

% of GDP % of exports

% of total exports of goods and services (right)

Current account balance

% of GDP (left)

Quarterly data.


Excluding DMBs undergoing winding-up proceedings (left)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

III-3

Merchandise trade balance as percentageof merchandise exports

%

12-month moving averages. Monthly data.


Tota l Exc luding ships and ai rcra ft

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

111009080706050403020100

III-4

Merchandise imports and exports atconstant exchange rates

12-month % change

Monthly data.


Exports, 12-month moving average

Imports, 12-month moving average

Exports, 3-month moving average

Imports, 3-month moving average

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

111009080706050403020100


9/23

9


III-7


Volume changes on main export products

Quarterly data.


Marine products Metals Other manufacturing products

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 20112009200820072006200520042003

III-8


Volume changes on main import products

Consumer goods Capital goods Industria l supplies

Capital goods including ships and aircraft. Quarterly data.


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2010 20112009200820072006200520042003

III-9


Volume changes on import products

Non-durable consumer goods are disposable items such as tobacco andpharmaceuticals. Semi-durables are products that are neither disposable nordurable, such as clothing. Consumer durables are products with a longlife-time, such as household appliances. Quarterly data.


Durable consumer goods

Semi-durable consumer goods

Non-durable consumer goods

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2010 20112009200820072006200520042003

III-11

Merchandise exports by category

January 2000 = 100

Exported merchandise value calculated as a 3-month moving average atconstant exchange rates based on export-weighted exchange rate index

(broad trade basket). Monthly data.Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Marine products Aluminium and ferrosilicon Other industrial products

0

100

200

300

400

500

10 11090807060504030201009998979695

III-10

Merchandise exports

B.kr.

Exported merchandise value calculated as a 3-month moving average atconstant exchange rates based on export-weighted exchange rate index(broad trade basket). Monthly data.


Total Exc luding ships and a ircraft

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1110090807060504030201009998979695

III-12

B.kr.

Seasonally adjusted merchandise imports

Imported merchandise value calculated as a 3-month moving average atconstant exchange rates based on export-weighted exchange rate index

(broad trade basket). The index of foreign price levels is calculated byweighting together the consumer price indices in main trading partnercountries using a currency basket. Monthly data.


Total Excluding ships and aircraft

5

10

15

20

25

30

1110090807060504030201009998979695


10/23

10


III-18

Thous. tonnes Thous. tonnes

Aluminium production

Annual production (right)

Monthly data. Annual alumnium production for 2011 is production January-June.

Source:Statistics Iceland.

Monthly production (left)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

III-17

January 1999 = 100 USD/tonne

Export prices

Latest: 19 Aug.

Foreign currency prices of marine products are calculated by dividing marine

products prices in Icelandic krnur by the export-weighted trade basket. LMEaluminium prices are in US dollars. Monthly averages plus most recentaluminium prices.

Sources: Statistics Iceland, London Metal Exchange (LME), Central Bank of

Iceland.

Aluminium (right) Demersal species (left)Total marine products (left)

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1,000

1,300

1,600

1,900

2,200

2,500

2,800

3,100

3,400

11100908070605040302010099

III-15

Fish catch volume

2004 = 100 12-month % change

Monthly data at constant price levels.


Catch value (left) 12-month % change (right)

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

20112010200920082007200620052004200320022001

III-16

Thous. tonnes

Marine export value

January - June

Cumulative catch volume from beginning of year. Cumulative value ofmarine exports from beginning of year; nominal fob value. Monthly data.

Sources: Directorate of Fisheries, Statistics Iceland.

January - July

Crusta-ceans

Pelagicspecies

Other

Meal& oils

Salted

Frozen

Fresh

B.kr.

Crusta-ceans

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011201020090

1020

3040

50

60

70

80

90100

110

201120102009

III-13

Merchandise trade inJanuary - June

General imports are total imports excluding ships, aircraft, and sundry items(residual). General exports are total exports excluding ships, aircraft, and sundryitems (residual). Monthly data.


201120102009 201120102009

% price change on a year earlier % volume change on a year earlier

Generalimports

Import.consum.

Marineexports

Generalexports

Generalimports

Import.consum.

Marineexports

Generalexports

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

III-14


Services balance

Quarterly data at constant exchange rates.


Services exports Serv ices imports

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1110090807060504030201009998979695


11/23

11

III-20

USD/barrel USD/tonne

Global crude oil and gasoline prices

Latest: 19 Aug.

Weekly data.

Source: Bloomberg.

Crude oil (Brent) (right) Gasoline (left)

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

2011201020092008

Global commodity prices and Icelandic export prices

III-22

January 2000 = 100 January 2000 = 100

Monthly data.

Sources: London Metal Exchange, Macrobond, Statistics Iceland.

Non-fuel commodities (in USD) (left)

Aluminium (left)

Total marine products (right)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

90

94

98

102

106

110

114

118

122

126

130

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002


Commodity prices in international markets

III-21

2005 = 100 Latest: 15 Aug.

Weekly data.

Source: Macrobond.

Food (in USD)Non-fuel commodities (in USD)

Food (in EUR)Non-fuel commodities (in EUR)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

III-19

USD/tonne USD/barrel

Global crude oil and gasoline prices

Monthly averages, most recent daily prices, and forward prices 12 monthsahead in US dollars.

Sources: Bloomberg, Nymex.

Crude oil Europe (DTD Brent) (right) Gasoline NW Europe 95 (left)

100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,300

2030405060708090100110120130140

12201120102009200820072006200520042003

*

Fore-ward

19 Aug.

III-23

2000 = 100

Real exchange rate

Quarterly data.


Relative unit labour costs Relative consumer prices

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

10080604020098969492908886

III-24

2000 = 100

Real exchange rate

Monthly data relative to consumer prices.


6065

707580

859095

100

105110115

120

090807060504030201009998979695 10 11


12/23

12

IV Labour market and wages

IV-5

Number

Vacancies and foreign labour

3-month moving average. The E-8 countries are Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, and Hungary. Monthly data.

Source: Directorate of Labour.

Vacancies

Recruitment by temporaryemployment agencies

New temporary permits for new jobs, extensions andexisting E-8 workers

Registered recruitment from E-8

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

20112010200920082007200620052004

IV-6

% af labour force % af labour force

Unemployment rate and labour participation rate

Until 2003, the Statistics Iceland labour market survey included only one week

in April and one week in November; however, since January 2003, it has beencontinuous and the results published quarterly. As a result, figures from January2003 and thereafter are not entirely comparable with earlier figures. Quarterlydata.


Participation rate (right) Unemployment (left)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

201120102008 20092007200620052004200395 0091

IV-3

Number

Unemployment register: Inflows and outflows

Monthly data.


Inflows Outflows

0

5001,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2011201020092008200720062005

IV-4

Share of companies (%)

Companies planning to change staffing levelsduring the next 6 months

Data based on Capacent Gallup's survey of the largest companies in Iceland.


Companies planning to recruit, March 2011

Companies planning to recruit, June 2011

Companies planning redundancies, March 2010

Companies planning redundancies, June 2011

Notsellingproducts

abroad

Sellingproducts

abroad

Regional

Iceland

Greater

Reykjavkarea

Specialised

services

Financeand

insurance

Construction

Communications

Fisheries

Wholesale

andretail

Manufacturing

Allbusinesses

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

IV-1

% of labour force

Unemployment

Registered unemployment is the average number of individuals registered withemployment agencies nationwide as a percentage of the estimated number ofpersons in the labour market in each month. Monthly data.

Sources:Directorate of Labour, Central Bank of Iceland.

Unemployment Seasonally adjusted unemployment

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

910

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

IV-2

Number

Number of unemployed and total labour force

Number

Registered unemployment is the average number of individuals registeredwith employment agencies nationwide as a percentage of the estimatednumber of persons in the labour market in each month. 1. Directorate ofLabour estimate. Monthly data.


Number of unemployed (left)Total labour force1 (right)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,00016,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000200,000

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002


13/23

13


IV-7


Employed persons and number of persons at work

Number (thousand)

Change in number at work (left)

Employed persons are those who worked at least one hour during thereference week or were absent from work that they were hired to carry out.Persons at work are those who worked one hour or more during thereference week. Quarterly data.

Source:

Statistics Iceland.

Number at work (right) Number of employed (right)

Change in number employed (left)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

20112010200920082007200620052004

IV-9


Changes in labour force

Total hours worked Age 16-24 Age 25-54 Age 55-74

Contribution of age groups to changes in total hours worked. Until 2003, theStatistics Iceland labour market survey included only one week in April andone week in November; however, since January 2003, it has been continuousand the results published quarterly. As a result, figures from January 2003and thereafter are not entirely comparable with earlier figures. Quarterlydata.


-16-14-12

-10-8-6-4

-202468

200820072006 20052004 92 95 00 2009 2010 2011

IV-11

%

Wage changes by sector

Until 2006, private sector wages, on the one hand, and public sector andbanking sector wages, on the other, are components of the wage index;however, from 2006 onwards, the banking sector is included in private sectorwages. Quarterly data.Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Public sector (annual changes) Private sector (annual changes)

Public sector (quarterly changes) Private sector (quarterly changes)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

11100908070605040301 02009997 98

IV-12

Private sector wage index by sector


Sectors are defined according to SAT 95, a classification standard based onthe industry classification system of the European Union. Quarterly data.Source: Statistics Iceland.

ManufacturingWholesale, retail and repair

ConstructionTransport, storage and communication

Financial intermediation

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2009200820072006 2010 2011

IV-8


Changes in labour force

Number of persons at workTotal hours worked Average hours worked

Until 2003, the Statistics Iceland labour market survey included only one weekin April and one week in November; however, since January 2003, it has beencontinuous and the results published quarterly. As a result, figures from January2003 and thereafter are not entirely comparable with earlier figures. Quarterly

data.Source: Statistics Iceland.

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8-6

-4

-2

0

24

68

200820072006 2005 200492 95 00 2009 2010 2011

IV-10

12-month % change

Nominal and real wages

Real wages are the wage index deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.


Wage index (left) Real wages (wage index deflated by CPI) (left)

Wage index (right)

Change between months (%)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

11100908070605040302010099


14/23

1414

V Public finances

V-3

Local government revenues, expenditures and balance

% of GDP

Revenues (left) Expenditures (left) Balance (right)

12-month % change

Percentage of gross domestic product from last four quarters. In real terms,deflated by CPI. Quarterly data.


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2010 1120092008200720062005

V-4

Local government revenues and expenditures

12-month % change

Municipal income tax (left) Wages and purchases (left)

Investment (right)

12-month % change



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2010 1120092008200720062005

V-2

Treasury revenues, expenditures and balance

12-month % change % of GDP



Revenues ( left) Expenditures ( left) Balance (right)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

510

15

20

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

24

6

8

2010 1120092008200720062005

161.9

-55.3

V-1

Public sector revenues, expenditures and balance

12-month % change % of GDP



Revenues (left) Expenditures (left) Balance (right)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

510

15

20

25

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

24

68

10

2010 1120092008200720062005

123.2

-55.8

IV-13

Private sector wage index by occupational group


Occupational groups are defined according to STARF 95, a classificationstandard based on the International Labour Organizations occupationalclassification system, ISCO-88. Quarterly data.


Management Technicians and semi-professionalsProfessionalsClerks Services, retail and marketing CraftsGeneral and skilled workers

-6-4-202468

10121416

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



15/23

1515

V Public finances

V-6

Public sector interest expense

% of GDP

Pub lic sector (left) Treasury ( left ) Municipalities (right)

% of GDP

Figures for 2010 are preliminary. Quarterly data.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

89

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11

0.42

0.39

0.45

0.48

0.51

0.54

0.57

0.60

0.630.66

V-5

Public sector debt

% of GDP

Excluding civil service pension liabilities and equity holdings. Debt ontransaction accounts netted out of assets.

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Iceland.

General government gross debt General government net debt

Central government gross debt Central government net debt

Local government gross debt Local government net debt

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8090

10080604020098969492908886848280

V-8

12-month % change

Regular revenues excluding asset sales,regular expenditure excluding interest

4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.

Sources: State Accounting Office, Central Bank of Iceland.

Revenues excluding asset sales Expenditures excluding interest

-35

-30-25-20-15

-10-5

05

101520

25

201020092008200720062005200420032002 2011

V-9

Tax revenues

12-month % change

4-month moving average, deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.


Payroll and personal income tax Value-added tax

Taxes on imports

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

201020092008200720062005200420032002 2011

V-10

12-month % change

Treasury expenditures by type

4-month moving average, deflated by the CPI. For December 2008, irregularexpenditures totalling 192 b.kr. due to the banks collapse are not shown.Monthly data.


Public consumption Transfers Investment and maintenance

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

201020092008200720062005200420032002 2011

V-7

Treasury balance and net credit balance

% of revenues

4-month moving averages, deflated by the CPI. Revenues from assets salesincluded. Monthly data.


Revenue balance Credi t balance

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

11201020092008200720062005200420032002


16/23

1616

VI-1

Housing market prices and turnover in greater Reykjavk

Number 12-month % change

Turnover is based on the number of purchase agreements on the date ofpurchase. Monthly data.

Sources: Registers Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Turnover on housing market- seasonally adjusted (left)House prices (right) Real house prices (right)

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1,050

1,200

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

VI-2

Housing market prices in greater Reykjavk

12-month change (%) January 1994 = 100

Price per sq.m. (immediate payment). 3-month average. Monthly data.


Nominal % change (left) Price in real terms (right)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1110090807060504030201009998979695

VI-3

House prices in greater Reykjavk

%-change between months 12-month % change

Monthly data.


Condominium housing- seasonally adjusted (left)

Detached housing (right)Condominium housing (right)Detached housing- seasonally adjusted (left)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20112010200920082007200620052004

12-month % change

VI-4

Market price of residential housing

March 2000 = 100

Monthly data.


Entire country (left)

Regional Iceland in real terms (right)Entire country in real terms (right)

Regional Iceland (left)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

20112010200920082007200620052004200320022001

VI Asset markets

V-11

12-month % change

Treasury expenditures by function

4-month moving average, deflated by the CPI. Monthly data.


General services and public order Social affairs Economic affairs

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

3040

50

201020092008200720062005200420032002 2011

V Public finances


17/23

17

Latest: 19 Aug.

Equity market

VI-9

B.kr.31 Dec. 1997 = 1,000

Total monthly volume of listed shares and monthly average of main stock indices.

Source: Nasdaq OMX Iceland.

Total turnover (right) OMXI-MAIN (left)OMXI15 (left)OMXI6 (left)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VI Asset markets

Number of registered sales agreements

VI-8

Turnover of commercial housing

Before June 2006, turnover is based on purchase day, otherwise on day ofregistered sales agreement.


Retail property and officesIndustrial, warehouses and other properties

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

10 11090807060504030200 019998979695

VI-5

Advertised property and average time to sale

No. No. of properties for sale/turnover

Monthly average of advertisements on Morgunbladid real estate website Thecount is carried out by property code so as to avoid a repeat count of the sameproperty. Monthly turnover is according to the number of officially registered

purchase agreements. The average time to sale is the length of time (in months)that it takes to sell advertised property divided by the turnover for the month inquestion. As of February 2009, Morgunbladid began charging a fee for onlinereal estate advertisements. This reduced the number of advertisements placed.

Sources: Morgunbladid Real Estate Website (mbl.is), Registers Iceland.

Houses/row houses/duplexes (left)All properties (left)

Multi-family buildings/flats (left)Average time-to-sale (right)

Latest: 22 Aug.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20112010200820072006 2009

VI-6

Number and amount of new residential housing loans

M.kr. Number

Amount-credit institutions (left)

Total number of new loans (HFF and pension funds) (right)

Amount-HFF (left)

Information on new pension fund loans is based on a sample covering thenation's 20 largest pension funds. During the survey period, the number ofpension funds in the sample rose from 18 to 20. The sample now extends to

almost 97% of Icelandic pension funds' net assets. Information from creditinstitutions was unavailable from September 2008 onwards. Monthly data.Number of new loans is shown as a 3-month rolling average.

Sources: Housing Financing Fund, Central Bank of Iceland.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450

201120102009200820072006

Amount-pension funds (left)

1995 = 100

VI-7

Commercial property prices in greater Reykjavk

Weighted average of industrial, retail, and office housing. Data are subject touncertainty due to sparsity and divergence of measurements. Quarterly data.


Simple average of sale contracts (left)

Percentage change between years (right)

Change on a year earlier (%)

80

110

140

170200

230

260

290

320

350

-40

-30

-20

-100

10

20

30

40

50

11100908070604 050301 02009998979695

Bond indices

VI-10

2 January 1998 = 100 Latest: 19 August

Indices are the OMX Nordic Exchange Iceland's calculations of yields onfixed-maturity bonds. Daily data.

Source: Nasdaq OMX Iceland.

Indexed, 5-years Nominal, 1-yearIndexed, 10-years

Nomina l, 3-months Nominal , 5-years

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

201120102009200820072006200520042003


18/23

18

VII-6

12-month change (%)

Household deposits

Contribution of individual components to deposit growth. Term depositsinclude money market accounts and other non-sight deposits. Indexeddeposits include pension savings, indexed vacation allowance accounts, andother indexed savings. Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthlydata.


Current accounts Foreign currency accounts (residents)

Sight deposits Time deposits Indexed deposits

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2011201020092008200720062005

VII Financial markets

VII-1


Credit system lending growth

Due to reclassification of lending, data from Q3 2003 are not comparable toearlier data. Quarterly data. The series have not been updated sinceSeptember 2008 due to lack of data.


Households Total Businesses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997

VII-2

Household debt with major credit institutions

B.kr. 12-month change (%)

Monthly data. From September 2008, debt to DMBs are shown at discounts astaken over by the new banks. The total includes insurance companies and thestudent loan fund.


Total (left) Growth in real terms (right)

Investment funds and pension funds (left) DMBs (left)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,6001,800

2,000

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

1218

24

201120102009200820072005200420032002 2006

VII-3

12-month change (%)

Credit institution lending to businesses

Indexed bonds Foreign currency- linked bonds

Non-indexed bonds Overdrafts Other

Contribution of individual components to lending growth. From September2008, lending is shown at discounts as taken over by the new banks. The categorylabelled other includes bills of exchange, redeemed guarantees, and assetfinancing agreements. Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.


-80-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-4

12-month change (%)

DMB lending to households

Indexed bonds Foreign currency-linked bonds

Non-indexed bonds Overdrafts Other

Contribution of individual components to lending growth. From September 2008,lending is shown at discounts as taken over by the new banks. The categorylabelled other includes bills of exchange, redeemed guarantees, and assetfinancing agreements. Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.


-60-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-5

12-month change (%)

Companies' deposits

Current accounts Foreign currency accounts (residents)

Sight deposits Time deposits Indexed deposits

Contribution of individual components to deposit growth. Term deposits includemoney market accounts and other non-sight deposits. Indexed deposits includepension savings, indexed vacation allowance accounts, and other indexed savings.Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.


-50-40-30-20-10

010203040506070

2011201020092008200720062005


19/23

19


VII-7

12-month change (%)

M3 and domestic bank credit

Corrected for estimated effects of price level and exchange rate movements onindexed and foreign-denominated loans. Real loan values are deflated by theCPI. Corrected for entry of Kaupthing from January 2002 onwards. Data fromOctober 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.


M3

Credit in real terms

Debt stock excl. exchange rate adjustment and price indexation

Credit

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

6080

100

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-8

January 2002 = 100

Real M3 and domestic bank credit

M3 (seasonally adjusted) Credit

Lending and M3 at constant price levels are deflated by the CPI. Data fromOctober 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-10

B.kr.

Bond auctions

Municipalities Treasury and Housing Financing Fund (HFF)

Other

Monthly data.


0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80

90

201120102009200820072006

VII-9

B.kr.

M3 and domestic bank credit

Data from October 2008 are preliminary. Monthly data.


M1 M2 M3

0

200

400

600800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010200920082007200620052004 11

VII-11

B.kr.

Base money

Categorisation of base money according to Central Bank of Iceland. Monthly data.


Notes and coin Deposits

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

201020092008200720062005 2011

B.kr

VII-12

B.kr.

Central Bank collateral loans and overnight loans

Weekly data for collateral loans; daily data for overnight loans.


Overnight loans (left) Collateral loans (right)Latest: 19 Aug.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20102009 20112008


20/23

2020


VII-15

% Latest: 19 Aug.

Central Bank real interest rate

According to 12-month inflation. Real interest rates according to breakeveninflation rate on Treasury notes are calculated based on Treasury note (RIKB13 0517) and Treasury bond (RIKS 1001) yields until June 2004, and onTreasury note (RIKB 13 0517) and HFF bond (HFF 150914) yields from July2004 onwards. From April 2009 onwards, the Central Bank deposit interestrate is considered the effective policy rate.

Sources: Capacent Gallup, Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland.

Inflat ion Breakeven inflat ion rateHousehold inflation expectations Businesses' inflation expectations

Real interest rate according to:

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-16

Forward interest rates calculated based on interbank market interest andyields on Treasury notes, using the Nelson-Siegel method. The valuation issubject to some uncertainty because of the small number of Treasury notesunderlying the calculations.


Forward interest rates on Treasury bond market

%

19 August 2010 19 July 201119 August 2011

2011 2012 2013 2014

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

VII-17

%

Short-term interest rate differential

Latest: 19 Aug.

3-month interbank rates. Weekly data.

Source: Macrobond.

Iceland/Euro area Iceland/US

Iceland/Switzerland Iceland/Japan

Iceland/UK

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Latest: 19 Aug.

VII-13

%

Central Bank collateral loan rateand money market interest rates

Weekly data.


REIBOR O/N Collateral loan rate REIBOR 3-month

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 2011

VII-14

% Latest: 22 Aug.

Central Bank and short-term market interest rates

Overnight CBI ratesCollateral loan rateMaximum rate on 28-day CDsO/N REIBOR

CBI current account rates

Daily data.


2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2009 2010 2011

VII-18

Latest: 19 Aug.%

Long-term interest rate differential

Yields on non-indexed 10-year Treasury bonds are used. For Iceland, RIKB 130517 is used until end-February 2008, and RIKB 19 0226 is used thereafter.Weekly data.

Sources: Macrobond, Central Bank of Iceland.

Iceland/Germany Iceland/US

Iceland/Switzer land Iceland/Japan

Iceland/UK

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002


21/23

2121


VII-24

%

Interest rates on indexed housing loans

Lowest rates for loans with prepayment penalty. Housing Financing Fund interestrates are indexed housing loan rates with prepayment penalty for December2005 onwards, and without prepayment before that time. 10-day data.Sources: Housing Financing Fund, Central Bank of Iceland.

Arion bank slandsbanki Landsbanki (NBI)

Housing Financing Fund (HFF)

Latest: 21 Aug.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20112009200820072006200504 2010

VII-23

Latest: 17 Aug.%

Bank lending and deposit rates

Spread between indexed lending and deposit ratesAverage indexed lending rates

Average indexed deposit rates (at 5 yrs.)

Due to changes in calculation methods, figures from February 2007 onwardsare not fully comparable with data from earlier periods. Weekly data.


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-20

%

Yields on indexed long-term bonds

Latest: 19 Aug.

Weekly data.


HFF150914 HFF150224 HFF150434 HFF150644

RIKS 21 0414RIKS 15 1001

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2011200920082007200620052004200320022001

Latest: 19 Aug.

VII-19

%

Long-term nominal Treasury bond yields

Weekly data.


RIKB 11 0722 RIKB 13 0517

RIKB 25 0612 RIKB 31 0124

RIKB 16 1013 RIKB 19 0226

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1416

201120102009200820072006

VII-21

%

Average nominal interest rates

Latest: 17 Aug.

Due to changes in calculation methods, figures from February 2007 onwardsare not fully comparable with data from earli er periods. Weekly data.


Average interest rate on bank loans

Yield on Treasury notes (RIKB 13 0517)

Central Bank collateral loans

Average prime rate on bank loans

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-22

%

Average indexed interest rates

Latest: 17 Aug.

Due to changes in calculation methods, figures from February 2007 onwardsare not fully comparable with data from earlier periods. Weekly data.


Average interest rate on bank loans HFF bond real yield (HFF150224)

Average prime rate on bank loansT-bond real yield (RIKS 1001)

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002


22/23

2222

VII-27

Latest: 19 Aug.

ISK/EUR, ZAR/EUR, TRY/EUR, NZD/EUR, BRL/EUR 1 Jan. 2004 = 100

Exchange rate of high-yieldingcurrencies against the euro

Daily data.

Source: Macrobond.

South African rand (ZAR) New Zealand dollar (NZD)

Icelandic krna (ISK) Brazilian real (BRL)Turkish lira (TRY)

50

80

110

140

170

200

230

20112010200920082007200620052004


VII-29

FX-market turnover

Latest: 19 Aug.M.kr.

Daily data.


0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

2010 2011J J J JJ A FS O N D M MA AM A

VII-25

EURISK

The ISK exchange rate markets against the euro

Latest: 22 Aug.

The onshore exchange rate is the end-of-day rate. Daily data.


Offshore Onshore

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

201120092008 2010

ISK/EUR, ISK/USD, ISK/GBP 3 January 2000 = 100

VII-26

Exchange rate of the krna against foreign currencies

Latest: 22 Aug.

The exchange rate index is calculated based on a narrow trade basket. Daily data.


EUR (left) GBP (left) USD (left)

Average exchange rate - narrow TWI (right)

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230250

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230250

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

VII-30

B.kr.

Turnover on the interbank market for krnur

Latest: 19 Aug.

Weekly data.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 20112009

VII-28

1 January 2000 = 100 January 2000 = 100

Nominal and real effective exchange rate of the krna

Monthly data.


Average exchange rate - broad TWI (r ight) Real exchange rate (left)

556065707580

859095

100105110115120125

230220110200190180

17016015014013012011010090

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002


23/23


VII-31

B.kr.

Bond market turnover

Latest: 19 Aug.

Weekly data.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140160

20102009

A S O N D J MF A M J J A S O N D J MF A M J J A

20115-year EUR credit spread on the Republic of Iceland. Daily data.


VII-32

Basis points

CDS spread for Iceland

Latest: 19 Aug.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2011200920082007 2010

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Banco Central de Islandia - Datos macroeconómicos de 2011

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