Bank of America
Merrill Lynch Conference
Jérôme Grivet
Deputy General Manager and Group CFO
September 28. 2016
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 2
This presentation may include prospective information on the Group, supplied as information on trends. This data does not represent
forecasts within the meaning of European Regulation 809/2004 of 29 April 2004 (chapter 1, article 2, § 10).
This information was developed from scenarios based on a number of economic assumptions for a given competitive and regulatory
environment. Therefore, these assumptions are by nature subject to random factors that could cause actual results to differ from
projections.
Likewise, the financial statements are based on estimates, particularly in calculating market value and asset depreciation.
Readers must take all these risk factors and uncertainties into consideration before making their own judgement.
The figures presented for the six-month period ending 30 June 2016 have been prepared in accordance with IFRS as adopted in the
European Union and applicable at that date, and with prudential regulations currently in force . This financial information does not constitute
a set of financial statements for an interim period as defined by IAS 34 “Interim Financial Reporting” and it has not been audited.
Throughout the document, data on 2015 results is presented pro forma: transfer of CACEIS from Asset Gathering to Large Customers,
transfer of Insurance Switch from the Corporate centre to Insurance and reclassification of the contribution of the Regional Banks under
IFRS5. Within Crédit Agricole S.A., “Retail banking” now covers only LCL and International retail banking.
DISCLAIMER
Note:
The Crédit Agricole Group scope of consolidation comprises: the Regional Banks, the Local Banks, Crédit Agricole S.A. and their
subsidiaries. This is the scope of consolidation that has been privileged by the competent authorities to assess the Group’s situation,
notably in the 2016 Stress test exercise.
Crédit Agricole S.A. is the listed entity. It notably owns the subsidiaries of its business lines (French retail banking, International
retail banking, Asset gathering, Specialised financial services, and Large Customers.
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 3
INTRODUCTION
Major project of simplification of CASA’s structure: transfer of CCIs/CCAs for a price of €18.5bn
A tight schedule respected: announce made in February and transaction fully completed early August 2016
Impact on the business mix of the listed entity: remains mainly focused on retail customers (households, SMEs
and professionals)
Immediate positive impact on the capital position of CASA from both a qualitative and quantitative viewpoint
Significant positive one-offs in 2016
Presentation of a new Medium Term Plan for the next 4 years
Ambitious Customer Project
Acceleration of the digital transformation
Revenue growth based on the further strengthening of cross-selling
Significant cost reductions, financing an acceleration of investment programme
Credit Agricole Group: among the strongest banking groups in Europe
Rating LT: A1 (Moody’s), A (S&P), A (Fitch)
Confirmation of financial solidity by the 2016 stress test results: CET1 ratio at 10.5% under adverse scenario
Target of CET1 ratio in 2019 at 16% (from 14.2% at June 30. 2016)
TLAC compliant
Achievements of H1-16
Distribution policy confirmed: dividend in cash with a pay-out ratio of 50%
CASA is becoming an income stock
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 4
SOMMAIRE
Simplification of the Group's structure
New business mix
Good set of results in H1 2016
Appendices
1
2
3
4
p. 4
p. 7
p. 13
p. 18
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 5
11.2%11.9%
June 16 June 16Proforma
+70 bps
Enhanced clarity of the Group structure for the benefit of the market and the regulators
Significant one-off P&L impacts in the first 3 quarters of 2016
Liability management transaction in Q1 enabling important future savings in the cost of debt
- Cost of -€683m in revenues (-€448m in NIGS) booked in Q1-16, lower than the -€750m initially estimated thanks to excellent
execution (for recurring benefits, see slide 6)
Total sale price of €18,542m
- Initial sale price: €18,025m1
- Price adjustment: €517m2
Dividends received from Regional Banks for year 2015: +€287m (booked in Q1 and Q2)
Immediate positive impact on Crédit Agricole S.A.’s solvency: +70 bps
CASA’s CET1 ratio increased to 11.9% at 30/06/16 on a pro forma basis
Qualitative improvement of CASA’s CET1 ratio (unwinding of Switch 1)
No impact at Group level and limited impact for the Regional Banks (average
pro forma 2015 CET1 ratio of 17.3%)
SIMPLIFICATION OF THE GROUP’S STRUCTURE
An €18.5bn transaction with major structural benefits for CASA
Total net capital gain for CASA of around €1,250m
to be recognised in Q3-16
1 Based on the Regional Banks’ balance sheets at 31/12/2015
2 Taking into account the change in the Regional Banks’ restated equity between 31/12/15 and 30/06/2016
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 6
SIMPLIFICATION OF THE GROUP’S STRUCTURE
1 The scope of the transaction includes all CCI/CCAs held by CASA except for (i) securities held by Predica, (ii) the portion of CCI/CCAs held in excess of 50% of the capital of 4 Regional Banks (Brie
Picardie, Loire Haute-Loire, Nord de France and Toulouse31). This excess part will be retained by CASA to comply with regulations regarding the capital structure of the Regional Banks, which
authorise the issuance of CCI/CCAs above 50% only if they are held by the Central body (in total, residual value of €0.5bn) and (iii) CCIs potentially held through liquidity schemes. 2 Relative to a situation in which an option to pay a scrip dividend would have been proposed with respect to the 2016 annual result. Earnings-enhancement calculation based on the assumption that
the take-up rate for the scrip dividend would be the same as that observed in 2015
Recurring benefits of the transaction
Transaction features
The unwinding of the guarantee mechanism
("Switch 1") associated with the holding of the
CCI/CCAs
+€461m in revenues on an
annual basisFrom Q3-16
The initiation of a loan granted to the Regional Banks
to finance the transaction
+€261m in revenues on an
annual basisFrom Q3-16
In revenues:
+€160m in 2016
+€190m in 2017
+€128m in 2018
…
Total impact in Net income Group share ~-€700m in 2016 and ~-€500m in 2017 to 2019
Recurring impacts for CASA
The intragroup reclassification of CCI/CCAs1 held by
CASA in the Regional Banks to SACAM Mutualisation
Deconsolidation of the
contribution from CCI/CCAs:
-€1,072m on an annual basis
From Q1-16
Optimisation of the balance sheet From Q2-16
Elimination of the dilutive effect of scrip dividend, around 5% annually2
Recovery of the 2015 EPS before the end of the MTP
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 7
SOMMAIRE
Simplification of the Group's structure
New business mix
Good set of results in H1 2016
Appendices
1
2
3
4
p. 4
p. 7
p. 13
p. 18
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 8
THE GROUP'S DNA
A Customer-focused universal banking model
Recognised ability to distribute products created by our specialised business lines through
our retail banking networks to meet our customers’ needs
€7.8bn of cross-selling revenues in 2015 for CA Group
An average of 9 products per demand deposit account1 for a Regional Bank customer at end 2015 and
approx. 8 for an LCL customer
Business mix mainly focused on retail customers (households, SMEs, professionals)
1 Source: Regional Bank customer database
Large customers
CIB
Asset servicing
Specialised
financial services
Consumer Finance
Leasing & Factoring
Cards & Payments
Asset gathering
Asset management
Insurance
Wealth Management
Retail banking
27m individual customers
in France, 1.7m in Italy
28% market share
in home loans
in France
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 9
36%
20% 17% 22%
33%
38% 41% 35%
9%
13% 15% 13%
22%29% 27% 30%
NEW BUSINESS MIX
A business mix historically largely dominated by retail-related activities: this will not
change significantly going forward
Net income Group share: CASA business mix
(excluding Corporate centre) in % (including Regional Banks in 2015 underlying)
Specialised financial services
Large customers (CACIB and CACEIS) Asset gathering
Retail banking
2019 2015 underlying
pro forma 2015 underlying
A balanced mix now more concentrated on Asset gathering
No change in Crédit Agricole S.A.’s
revenue mix following the simplification
transaction1
Net Income Group Share related to retail
customers to remain stable at around 70%
Crédit Agricole S.A.’s business lines will
continue to benefit from the Regional
Banks’ customer basis
1The share of Crédit Agricole S.A. in the Regional Banks was equity-accounted until 2015
H1 2016
underlying
Retail
distributed
products
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 10
Digital transformation and branch network
restructuration
Acceleration of the pace of customer gains
Enhancement of our multi-product strategy
Reinforcement of business in specialised markets
Tightening of cost control
Retail Banking
STRENGTHENING OF THE GROUP'S GROWTH MOMENTUM
Business line strategies
Insurance: reinforcing our leading position whilst
adapting to the low rates environment
Asset management: balanced development
between retail customers and institutionals
Pursuit of value-creating acquisitions
Primarily in asset management
And, to a lesser extent, in wealth management
Asset gathering
Further integration with the Group's retail banks
Support the Group’s networks
Increase sales of insurance products at CACF
Selective relaunching of profitable production in
stand-alone businesses
Direct channel
Partnerships and car finance joint ventures
Optimisation of operational efficiency with
sustained cost-cutting efforts
Development of an asset-light model
Specialised financial services
A stable scope of chosen activities in which we
have expertise and recognition
A more selective customer approach to further
increase profitability
A low risk profile, both in financing and capital
markets
Large customers
RONE 20191
>16%
RONE 20191
>11%
RONE 20191
>25%
RONE 20191
>13%
1 RoNE calculated as the net income (post tax) on normative equity, on the basis of a capital allocation tailored to the needs and risks of each business line
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 11
4,8 5,36,0
2,32,5
2,8
CASA’s specialised subsidiaries have access to the
customer bases of the Regional Banks (21m), LCL
(6m) and Cariparma (1.7m)
Cross-selling revenues represent more than 25% of
business line revenues
Targeted revenue growth at CASA level: +€1.8bn, of
which €700m is related to internal synergies
40% of growth easily secured
Main sources of additional revenue synergies
CAA to insource the Group creditor insurance contracts
Off-balance sheet asset inflows in high net worth segment
Sales of individual property & casualty and death & disability
insurance (LCL)
Consumer finance loans distributed by our retail banks
together with CACF (LCL, Cariparma)
CACIB – CACEIS cross-selling to institutional clients
Amundi - CAA revenue synergies in group pensions, health
and death & disability
CACIB – Retail banks cross-selling to mid-corps
2019
+€1bn at GCA level o/w +€0,7bn at CAsa level
2015 2013
8.8
7.8 7.11
Régional Banks Crédit Agricole S.A.
Revenue synergies (€bn)
1 2013 restated
STRENGTHENING OF THE GROUP'S GROWTH MOMENTUM
Revenue synergies target of €8.8bn for CA Group in 2019
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 12
SUSTAINABLE IMPROVEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL EFFICIENCY
CA Group
7.7
CASA
4.4
Regional
Banks
3.3
Group cumulative investments1 2016/2019 (€bn)
Business
development
and digital
transformation
Industrial
efficiency
Regulatory
1 Cumulative investments. Investments on a cash-out basis
€4.9bn
Business
development and
digital transformation
€1.8bn
Industrial efficiency
~ €1bn
Compliance and
risk mitigation 10%
16%
11%
37%
26%
Savings by
business line
900
Savings by lever
35%
36%
16%
13%
900
Large
customers
Asset
gathering
Corporate
centre
Retail
Banking
Specialised
financial
services
Rationalisation of
number of Group
entities
Purchases (non IT)
IT
transformation
Operational
efficiency
- 6 pts of Crédit Agricole S.A.
cost/income ratio by 2019
i.e. a cost/income ratio < 60% in 2019
CASA cost savings 2016/2019 (€m)
An ambitious programme in cost savings and investment
A €900m operational efficiency programme for CASA and a €7.7bn investment programme for the Group
to prepare for the future
Stability of CASA’s cost base over the
duration of the MTP
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 13
SOMMAIRE
Simplification of the Group's structure
New business mix
Good set of results in H1 2016
Appendices
1
2
3
4
p. 4
p. 7
p. 13
p. 18
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 14
Key figures
H1-16 RESULTS
Stated Net Income
Group Share
(NIGS)
Underlying Net
Income Group
Share (NIGS)
€1,942m
€1,623m
€2,760m
€2,865m
€1,158m
€818m
€1,385m
€1,212m
Q2-16
Crédit Agricole Group Crédit Agricole S.A.
H1-16 Q2-16 H1-16
Fully-loaded CET 1 14.2% 11.2%
+25.8% Q2/Q2 -18.7% H1/H1 +1.2% H1/H1 +29.5% Q2/Q2
-1.5% Q2/Q2 -0.9% H1/H1 +13.0% Q2/Q2 +4.6% H1/H1
Regional Banks
NIGS
€780m
-3.8% Q2/Q2
€1,606m
+0.4% H1/H1
Q1-16
€227m
€394m
Q1-16
nm Q1/Q1
-9.4% Q1/Q1
€818m
€1,242m
-33.4% Q1/Q1
-0.2% Q1/Q1
€826m
+4.6 % Q1/Q1
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 15
2016
Results
Decrease of our Retail banking exposure following the transaction to simplify Credit Agricole’s structure
Progressive offsetting of the decrease of the NIM thanks to
Increase in volumes
Development in consumer credit and SME loans
Cross-selling of fee businesses to new customers
Network optimisation
Launch of "Branch Network Optimisation" plan (closing of 250 LCL branches for a €42m provision booked in Q2-16)
Liability management operation for LCL in Q3-16 to adapt its cost of funding
2019 profitability target of the MTP confirmed
Strong commercial momentum in H1-16: continuation of the dynamic growth in loan and deposit volumes
Loans outstanding + 6.9% June/June in small businesses and corporate segment
Deposits up 7.4% YoY in Q2-16
Acceleration in the sale of P&C and protection policies
Property & casualty: +24% Q2/Q2 (in home, motor and health insurance)
Death & disability: +67% Q2/Q2
Stabilisation of revenues between Q1 and Q2 but new pick-up in renegotiations in Q2
Strategy in
low rates
environment
H1-16 RESULTS
Focus on Business lines impacted by low interest rates: Retail banking in France
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 16
2016
Results
Improving business mix by the development of non-life activities
Share of non-life activities in total NIGS of Insurance: +6 pts between 2010 and 2016
2019 target: +27% growth in P&C premiums and +35% growth in Protection premiums since 2015
Increasing the proportion of unit-linked contracts in our AuM in life insurance
Nearly + 2 pts in share of unit-linked contracts in total AuM between 2011 and 2015
2019 target: + 5 pts in share of unit-linked contracts in total AuM versus 2015
Maintaining prudent risk management in euro-denominated products and adjusting the activities to the new context
Quick adaptation of the profit-sharing rate (reduced by more than 40% since 2010)
Increase fees on euro funds
CAA has the capacity to cope with this situation
Average investment portfolio yield far above the minimum guaranteed rate due to policyholders
Significant increase of the different reserves (profit-sharing provision and capitalisation reserve)
Growth in all business lines Q2/Q2
Savings/retirement: +6.4%
Property & casualty insurance: +6.0%
Death & disability / creditor / group insurance: +12.0%
Strategy in
low rates
environment
H1-16 RESULTS
Focus on Business lines impacted by low interest rates: Insurance
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 17
106.1% 105.6%101.3% 100.3% 100.3% 100.4% 102.6% 102.3% 103.4%
71.1% 71.9% 71.9% 72.8% 72.9% 72.6% 71.5% 68.5% 67.9%
Coverage ratio (incl. collective reserves)*
Regional Banks
CASA
4.0%
3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%3.5% 3.5% 3.6%
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Impaired loans ratio
CASA
Regional Banks
279 271 264244
226201
162140 133
Cariparma(1)
H1-16 RESULTS
Prudent risk management in all business lines
CACF
CIB – Financing activities (2)
Regional Banks (3)
LCL
Cost of risk on outstandings (in bps over a rolling four-quarter period)
(1) Restated for additional provisions recognised largely in preparation for the AQR in Italy for -€109m at end-March
2014
(2) Restated for the impact of the additional OFAC litigation provision at end-June 2015 and additional legal provisions
at end-June 2016
(3) Restated for the impact of the Switch guarantee trigger at end-June 2015 and the Switch guarantee clawback at
end-September 2015
133 137 140 136 135130
117 113108
30 3425 25 21 20 18 21
29
28 2619 17
12 10 13 11 14
21 19 1816 15 16
18 17 18
* Restated for the impact of Switch guarantee trigger and additional OFAC provision at end-June 2015, Switch guarantee
clawback and provision for OFAC remediation costs at end-September 2015, and provision for OFAC remediation costs,
additional legal provisions at end-December 2015 and additional legal provisions at end-June 2016.
** Restated for the impact of additional OFAC provision at end-June 2015, provision for OFAC remediation costs at end-
September and end-December 2015, additional legal provisions at end-December 2015 and additional legal provisions at
end-June 2016
64 64
5551
48
43 4139 41
43 42
3734
3230 30 28 30
Crédit Agricole S.A.*
Groupe Crédit Agricole **
Crédit Agricole S.A. & Regional Banks : impaired loans ratios and coverage ratios
* Calculated on the basis of outstandings not netted for available collateral and guarantees
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 18
OUR COMMITMENT TO INVESTORS
Group organisation clarified
Simplification of the Group’s structure completed
Solvency situation normalised
CET1 ratio at 11.9% end-June 2016 on a pro forma basis
Commitment to a level above, and as close as possible to 11%, throughout the duration of the MTP
Ambitious but realistic MTP
Main targets for 2019
- NIGS: €4.2bn for CASA
- RoTE: >10% (i.e.: ~850 bps above risk-free rate)
Conservative assumptions within a controlled business mix
Crédit Agricole S.A. is becoming an income stock
An attractive pay-out policy: 50% in cash
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 19
SOMMAIRE
Simplification of the Group's structure
New business mix
Good set of results in H1 2016
Appendices
1
2
3
4
p. 4
p. 7
p. 13
p. 18
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 20
(1) The transaction includes all CCI/CCAs held by CASA except for (i) securities held by Predica, (ii) the portion of CCI/CCAs held in excess of 50% of the capital of 4 RBs (Brie Picardie, Loire Haute-
Loire, Nord de France and Toulouse31). This excess part will be retained by CASA to comply with regulations regarding the capital structure of the RBs, which authorise the issuance of CCI/CCAs
above 50% only if they are held by the Central body (in total, residual value of €0.5bn) and (iii) CCIs potentially held through liquidity schemes
(2) The RB of Corsica, owned at 100% by Crédit Agricole S.A., will also be a shareholder of Sacam Mutualisation
(3) As of December 31. 2015
The transaction announced mid-February was completed early August
Float
56.7% (3) 43.3%
(3)
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Local Banks of
Crédit Agricole
and other
members
Holders of
CCI/CCAs
RB
1
RB
3
RB
38
RB
2
38 Regional Banks (excl. RB of Corsica)(2)
SACAM Mutualisation
100%(2)
~25%
(through
CCI/CCAs (1))
Current Group structure New Group structure
Float
43.3% (3)
Mutual
share(s)(1)
25% of
capital
under the
form of
CCI/CCAs
(no voting
right) +
Switch
Guarantee
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Local Banks of Crédit Agricole and
other members
Holders of
CCI/CCAs
mutual shares (with voting right)
and CCAs (no voting right)
CCIs
(no voting
right) 75% of capital
RB
1
RB
3
RB
38
RB
2
38 Regional Banks (excl. RB of Corsica)(2)
56.7% (3)
20
SIMPLIFICATION OF THE GROUP’S STRUCTURE
The CCIs/CCAs formerly held by CASA were transferred to SACAM Mutualisation, a wholly-owned
subsidiary of the Regional Banks, on August 3. 2016
An
€18.5
bn
tra
nsacti
on
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 21
Reclassification of the Regional Banks' contribution under IFRS5 as of 01/01/16
Approval obtained from the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) on 06/04/16
Final completion of the transaction on 03/08/16
Quarterly impacts in 2016 of the simplification of the Group’s structure
SIMPLIFICATION OF GROUP’S STRUCTURE
Note: NIGS calculated using the 2016 tax rate of 34.43%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016
Balance sheet optimisation -€683m in revenues
-€448m in NIGSCapital gain ~ +€1,250m
including the price adjustement
-€108m related to the dividend
paid in H1
Balance sheet optimisation +€53m in revenues per quarter in 2016
Deconsolidation of the contribution from CCI/CCAs~ -€207m (based on their contribution at 100% in Q1-16), then ~ -€270m on average per quarter (2015 basis)
End of interest paid on Switch 1+€461m in revenues per year (i.e. : +€230m in 2016)
Interest on the loan granted to the Regional Banks
and investment of the remainder of the net proceed +€261m in revenues per year (i.e.: +€130m in 2016)
One-off impacts
Recurring impacts
Dividend+€256m in NIGS
Dividend+€29m in NIGS
Impact Q1-16
-€399m in NIGS Impact Q2-16
-€206m€ in NIGS
Estimated impact
Q3-16
+€1,100m in NIGS
Estimated impact
Q4-16
-€100m in NIGS
Total impact
Estimated total impact
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 22
Crédit Agricole
Group
Of which
Crédit Agricole S.A.
>+1.5% >+2.5% Revenue growth1
<60% <60% 2019 cost / income ratio
<35bps <50bps Cost of risk / outstandings
>€7.2bn >€4.2bn 2019 Net income Group share
>10% 2019 RoTE
22% TLAC excl. eligible senior debt
50%, in cash Pay-out ratio
≥11% Fully-loaded CET1 16%
2019 Global financial targets
Q1 to Q3-16 are impacted by the transaction to simplify the Group’s capital structure.
These atypical quarters are fully taken into account in the financial trajectory of the MTP.
1 2019 CAGR vs 2015 underlying pro forma for Crédit Agricole Group simplification transaction
MEDIUM TERM PLAN
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 23
2019 Business line targets
Revenues
2015-2019 CAGR1
2019
Cost / income 2019 RoNE2
LCL
Cariparma
Retail
banking
~+0.5%
~+3%
~65%
~55%
>16%
>16%
Insurance
Asset management
Wealth management
Asset
gathering >+3% <45% >25%
Consumer credit
Leasing & Factoring
Specialised
financial
services >+2.5% <46% >13%
Corporate & investment
banking
Asset servicing
~+2% <60% >11% Large
customers
1 2019 CAGR vs 2015 underlying pro forma for Crédit Agricole Group simplification transaction and analytical transfer of the cost of the Switch 2 guarantee to Insurance activity 2 RoNE calculated on the basis of a capital allocation tailored to the needs and risks of each business line (see “Profitability - Risk weighted assets and capital allocated by business line”).
MEDIUM TERM PLAN
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 24
A Customer-Focused Universal banking model
A model based on the expertise of all our business lines, on the excellence and the know-how required to
meet the financial and wealth management needs of our customers
A « Full Multi-Channel » distribution model
A model that enables our customers to choose how and when they interact with their bank and switch
easily between the various channels
A strategic investment in customer relationships
An acceleration of the digital transformation and foster innovation
A new wealth advisory approach with a renowned sales/advisory method of customer advisers
New products and services
Digital revolution supporting the rolling-out of the customer project
MULTI-CHANNEL
Attached to the simplicity of digital for some transactions and the extra value
provided by an adviser
~70%
DIGITAL
Attached to the freedom and simplicity of digital banking
~20%
BRANCH
Prefers to have a face-to-face relationship with his adviser ~10%
% of customers1
1 source: McKinsey “Retail distribution 2015: full digitalisation with a human touch”; estimation of banking customer behaviours on complex operations
MEDIUM TERM PLAN
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 25
SOLVENCY PLANNING
Fully-loaded CET1 ratio of Crédit Agricole S.A. 2015 to 2019
Fully-loaded CET1 ratio - Crédit Agricole S.A.
1 Regulatory impacts, including IFRS 9
50% dividend pay-out ratio, based on net income after AT1 coupon payments, paid in cash as of 2016 results
Downward trend in AFS reserves expected in the context of rising interest rates
Selectivity and optimisation actions, mainly on CIB
Expansion of business lines with strong added value driven mainly by retail banking
Leeway allowing flexibility in the solvency monitoring
1
-2.3%
31-Dec-15 Net income after
AT1 coupons
payment
Distribution
-0.7%
≥11% 11%
Flexibility
-0.6%
Regulatory
impacts1
Expansion of
each
business line
-0.7%
Selectivity &
optimisation
+4.6%
31 Dec
2019 Target
-1.0%
+0.7%
AFS reserve
A capital planning reconciling a cash pay-out policy in a constrained regulatory
environment and capital allocation favouring high profitability business lines
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 26
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP Q2-16 & H1-16 HIGHLIGHTS
Strong solvency and TLAC position: Credit Agricole exhibits no shortfall
* Assuming that the current overall SREP requirement (Pillar 1, Pillar 2, capital conservation buffer) remains unchanged over the period. As a reminder, the ECB performs an analysis of the SREP requirements on at least an annual basis
and may impose additional requirements at any time. This hypothesis should not be construed as any form of guarantee in respect of the expected CET1 ratios and buffers going forward. It corresponds to the position of the EBA and the
ECB, and to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s interpretation of the relevant texts
** Pillar 2 SREP add-on assumed to be included in requirements starting from 2016, as per our understanding of EBA and ECB’s guidelines
*** Preferred senior unsecured liabilities that rank alongside those excluded liabilities in the insolvency creditor hierarchy but otherwise respects eligibility criteria
Current and 2019 requirements* already fulfilled at 30/06/2016
Forecasts:
No need to issue new AT1 instruments over the medium term plan horizon
The Tier 2 bucket represents 3.0% at Crédit Agricole Group and 4.4% at Crédit Agricole S.A., leading to fully-loaded Total Capital ratios at 18.2% for the
Group and 17.4% for Crédit Agricole S.A.
4.5%
14.2% 16.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
2.0%
4.3%
5.0%
8.0%
2.5% 1.0%
19.5%
2019requirements*
Estimate at30/06/16
Targetedstructure in
2019
TLAC ratio
Crédit Agricole Group
Systemic buffer
Conservation buffer
Additional TLAC
Tier 2
AT1
CET1 (Pillar 1)
Excl. eligible senior debt***
Senior non
pref., T2, T1
under Basel
2
AT1
CET1
19.5%
22.0%
(per FSB final Term Sheet)
4.5% 4.5%
2.5% 2.5%
2.5% 2.5%
1.0%
11.2%
9.5% 10.5%
14.2%
Crédit Agricole S.A. Crédit AgricoleGroup
2019 requirements*
Fully-loaded at
30/06/16
Systemic buffer
Pillar 2
(SREP add-on)
Conservation
buffer
CET1
(Pillar 1)
CET1 ratio
Crédit Agricole S.A. Crédit Agricole Group
2019 target at 16.0%
11.2% 9.5% 10.5%
14.2%
1.8%
1.5% 1.5%
1.0% 13.0%
11.0% 12.0%
15.2%
Crédit Agricole S.A. Crédit AgricoleGroup
2019 requirements*
Fully-loaded at
30/06/16
Tier 1 ratio
of which
AT1
Including Pillar 2 (2.5%
SREP
add-on) **
Crédit Agricole S.A. Crédit Agricole Group
Crédit Agricole Group’s CET1 ratio is strongly
above SREP requirement, and Crédit Agricole S.A.
is managed above a 150bps buffer (as calculated
under current SREP methodology)
AT1 ratio is calibrated to fulfill 1.5% bucket for
Credit Agricole S.A., whereas Credit Agricole Group
uses 0.5% of its excess of CET1
TLAC minimum for 2019 is already reached without
eligible senior debt***
Targeted structure in 2019 includes a growing
contribution from CET1
27 BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016
* Estimate based on Crédit Agricole S.A.’s understanding of texts
** Countercyclical buffer set at 0%
*** Subject to decision of the resolution authority
**** Preferred senior unsecured liabilities that rank alongside those excluded liabilities in the insolvency creditor hierarchy but otherwise respect eligibility criteria
Crédit Agricole Group: TLAC & MREL ratios
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
TLAC ratio at 30/06/2016
19.5% excluding eligible senior debt, estimated in
accordance with FSB* final term sheet requirements,
versus minimum requirement of 19.5% including
eligible senior debt
On track for the 22% Medium Term Plan target by end-
2019 excluding eligible senior debt
The Group intends to protect its existing senior
bondholders and is considering issuing non preferred
senior debt as specified in the draft French law
MREL ratio at 30/06/2016
8.1% excluding potentially eligible senior debt > 1 year*
Calculation based on the same numerator as the one used
to calculate the TLAC ratio
End-2016 Group commitment of 8% already met
Level reached allowing potential recourse to the Single
Resolution Fund (SRF), subject to decision of the resolution
authority
4.5%
8.0% 8.1%
19.5%
1.5%
6%
~14.4%
2.0%
19.5%
2.5%
2.5%
1.0%
TLAC requirement (FSB final term sheet)
TLAC estimate at30/06/16**
MREL possibly allowingrecourse to SRF***
MREL estimate at30/06/16**
MREL estimateas a % of RWA
AdditionalTier 1
CET1
Regulatory own funds and eligible subordinated debt
Tier 2
AdditionalTLAC
Conservation
buffer
G-SIB buffer
Eligible senior debt ****
19.5% to 21.5% **
8.0% to 10.0%
~ 6,0%
22.0%
Potentially eligible senior debt **** > 1 year
Regulatory own funds and eligible subordinated debt
~14%
~34%
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 28
RATINGS OVERVIEW Crédit Agricole S.A.’s ratings are based on Crédit Agricole Group’s credit fundamentals
LT / ST: A1 / P-1
Outlook: stable
Last rating action on 19/07/2016:
• LT rating raised to A1 from A2, ST rating
affirmed
• Outlook changed to stable from positive • Subordinated debt ratings raised by 1 notch
Rating drivers
• The stable outlook reflects the absence of
tangible rating drivers up or down
G-SIB LT ratings
Moody’s
LT / ST: A / A-1
Outlook: stable
Last rating action on 02/12/2015:
• LT/ST ratings affirmed; the removal of 1 notch for
extraordinary government support was
compensated by 1-notch of ALAC
• Outlook changed to stable from negative
On 11/08/16, S&P raised by 1 notch the ratings of AT1
and Tier 2 Coco issues
Rating drivers
• The stable outlook reflects the absence of tangible
rating drivers up or down
G-SIB LT ratings
S&P
LT / ST: A / F1
Outlook: positive
Last rating action on 07/06/2016:
• LT/ST ratings affirmed
• Positive outlook (since 23/06/15) affirmed
Rating drivers
• The positive outlook reflects expectations that the
Group will maintain its fairly low risk appetite and
continue to improve its capitalisation => possible LT
rating upgrade (an outlook typically lasts up to18-24
months)
G-SIB LT ratings
Fitch Ratings
3 4
14
4 2 2 1
Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2
5 3
15
3 3 0 1
AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB-
2 4 7 12
3 2
AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Ratings at 25/08/2016 Ratings at 25/08/2016 Ratings at 25/08/2016
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016 29
RATINGS OVERVIEW
Crédit Agricole S.A.’s debt ratings and 5 year CDS spreads
Moody’s S&P Fitch Ratings
Issuer Rating A1 LT senior
unsecured debt A+ A+
A2 Issuer Credit Profile A LT senior
unsecured debt
Issuer Default Rating
Viability Rating A
LT senior unsecured debt
Senior non-preferred*
A3 Stand-Alone
Credit Profile a- A- Dated T2
Adjusted Baseline Credit
Assessment baa1 BBB+ Senior non-preferred* BBB+
Baa2 Senior non-preferred*
Dated T2 BBB Dated T2 BBB
Baa3 BBB- BBB-
Ba1 Additional T1
(unsolicited rating) BB+ Additional T1 BB+ Additional T1
*Crédit Agricole S.A.’s assessment of the rating that is likely to be assigned to senior non-preferred debt instruments
Crédit Agricole S.A. 5-Year CDS spreads
Long-term ratings
Ratings Debt instrument
5-year CDS spreads - senior 5-year CDS spreads - subordinated
Ratings Debt instrument Ratings Debt instrument
30 BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016
4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
4.375% 3.75%
3.125% 2.50%
0,625% 1.25%
1,875% 2.50%
0,25% 0,50% 0,75% 1,00% 9,75%
10,00% 10,25% 10,50%
2016 2017 2018 2019
G-SIB Buffer Capital Conservation Buffer Pillar 2 buffer Minimum CET1 ratio Pillar 2 CET1 requirement
Year-end
* We do not take into account the planned evolution of the SREP methodology in 2017. This new methodology is expected to have a favourable impact, with a lower requirement and the introduction of a non-binding guidance
** Including reserves of €13.9bn and share issue premium of €12bn at 30/06/2016
*** Based on reported CRR/CRD4 phased-in CET1 capital and RWAs at 30/06/2016, assuming that they remain constant, excluding potential TLAC requirements, and assuming that the overall SREP requirement (Pillar 1, Pillar 2, capital conservation buffer)
remains constant over the period. As a reminder the ECB performs an analysis of the SREP requirement at least on an annual basis, and may impose additional requirements at any time. These hypotheses should not be construed as any form of guidance in
respect of the expected CET1 ratios and buffers going forward. They correspond to the current position of the EBA and the ECB, and to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s interpretation of the relevant texts
No G-SIB buffer at
Crédit Agricole S.A.
level
Distributable items at end June 16
€25.9bn **
Crédit Agricole S.A. –
Buffer*** to mandatory coupon restrictions
Crédit Agricole Group –
Buffer*** to mandatory coupon restrictions
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Maximum Distributable Amount: Pillar 2 constraint
MDA above target for Crédit Agricole S.A. at Q2-16
(150bps above Pillar 2 requirement of 9.5%)
Under current ECB methodology*
Year-end
€22bn €21bn €20bn €18bn
Current
buffer:
€5bn
4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
4,375% 3.75%
3,125% 2.50%
0,625% 1.25%
1,875% 2.50%
9.50% 9,50% 9,50% 9,50%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Current
buffer:
425bps
Target:
150bps or
€4.5bn+
31 BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group: diversified funding sources
2016 MLT senior + sub. issues - Crédit Agricole Group
Breakdown by main issuers: €24.1bn at 30/06/2016 Crédit Agricole Group
Highly diversified funding mix by instrument, investor base
and targeted geographic area
• At 30/06/2016: €20.1bn in senior debt* issued by Group issuers (full
year 2015: €33.6bn)
Crédit Agricole S.A.
79% of the 2016 MLT market funding programme (senior +
sub.) completed at 30/06/2016 (as a reminder, 2016
programme of €14bn)
• Senior debt: €9.5bn eq. (EUR, USD, JPY, CHF)
• EMTN: €2.6bn eq., 6 and 10 years
• USMTN: USD1.4bn (€1.2bn eq.), 5 years
• Covered Bonds: €4.9bn eq., 5, 7, 10 and 15 years
• Samurai: JYP92.4bn (€0.8bn eq.), 5, 7 and 10 years
• Subordinated debt: €1.5bn eq (USD, JPY)
• Additional Tier 1: USD1.25bn (€1.15bn eq.)
• Tier 2 Samurai: JPY37.7bn (€0.3bn eq.)
2016 MLT market senior + sub. issues - Crédit Agricole S.A.
Breakdown by main issuers: €11.0bn at 30/06/2016
Senior: €9.5bn (average maturity: 8.1 years; spread vs. mid-swap : 42.5bps)
Covered public
issues 45%
Senior public
issues 42%
Subordinated
issues 13%
Crédit
Agricole S.A. market
46%
Crédit
Agricole S.A. network
14%
LCL network
2%
Cariparma
network 3%
CACIB
18%
CACF
15%
EFL
1% Amundi
1%
* Excluding T-LTRO drawings, which are however classified as LT market sources
32 BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE – SEPTEMBER 2016
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group: liquidity reserves
Liquidity reserves at end-December 2015 (€bn)
* Available liquid market securities after haircut
HQLA securities represent 224% of ST debt not deposited with Central Banks
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) at 30/06/2016 above 110% at both Crédit Agricole
Group and Crédit Agricole S.A.
24
132
9
21
186
Reverse repos & other ST
Securities portfolios
Central Bank deposits 36 o/w
cash (€3bn)
o/w mandatory reserves (€6bn)
24
130
20
21
32
Central Bank deposits (excl. cash and mandatory reserves)
HQLA* (High Quality Liquid Asset) securities
portfolio
Other non HQLA securities*
Self-securisations eligible to Central Banks
Assets eligible to Central Banks after ECB
haircut (immediate access)
Valuation
gains/losses &
haircuts
Cash balance sheet assets Liquidity reserves
24
58
ST debt
ST debt net of Central Bank
deposits
227
Central bank deposits (excl. cash and mandatory reserves)
82
Liquidity reserves at end-June 2016 (€bn)