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Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland - Madrid, January 2014
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Page 1: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

Bank Zachodni WBK- Poland -Madrid, January 2014

Page 2: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.1Disclaimer English

IMPORTANT: This presentation was prepared by Santander and the content herein is of a strictly confidential nature. This presentation cannot be reproduced,distributed or published by the recipient or used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Santander. Although the information contained in thispresentation was obtained from sources considered reliable, Santander cannot guarantee the accuracy and truth of the same. The opinions presented herein representthose of Santander at the present time, and are, therefore, subject to amendment and alteration. Santander is not responsible for any direct losses or reduced profitsthat may result from the use of the information contained herein.

Page 3: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.2

1. Macroeconomics

2. Santander Group in Poland: Bank Zachodni WBK

3. The bank

Index

Page 4: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.3

PolandMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics

Page 5: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.4

Macroeconomics

We were expecting a recovery…

3.0

4.0

5.0

% Economic growth rate

forecast

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Page 6: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.5

... but it proved even stronger

3.0

4.0

5.0

% Economic growth rate

Actual value / Current …

forecast

Macroeconomics

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Page 7: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.6

Macroeconomics

4

6

8

20

30

40 Polish exports vs. German GDP (%YoY)

Recovery still export-driven

forecast

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

1Q01

1Q02

1Q03

1Q04

1Q05

1Q06

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

Polish exports (lhs)German exports (lhs)German GDP (rhs)

Source: Eurostat, BZ WBK

Page 8: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.7

Macroeconomics

6

8

10

12Consumption vs. wage bill (real terms, %YoY)

forecast

... which is helping labour market and consumption

Source: GUS, BZ WBK

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1Q

01

1Q

02

1Q

03

1Q

04

1Q

05

1Q

06

1Q

07

1Q

08

1Q

09

1Q

10

1Q

11

1Q

12

1Q

13

1Q

14

Wage and social benefits bill Private consumption

Page 9: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.8

Macroeconomics

30

40

50 Growth of investment in private and public sectors (nominal terms, %YoY)

… as well as private investments

forecast

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1Q06

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

Public investment Private investment

Source: GUS, BZ WBK

Page 10: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.9

Macroeconomics

Continuation of positive tendencies in 2014-15

4.0

5.0

% Economic growth rate

forecast

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

forecast

Page 11: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.10

Macroeconomics

2.53.03.54.04.55.0

Inflation (%YoY)

forecast

Inflation persistently low

0.00.51.01.52.02.5

Dec

08

Apr

09

Aug

09

Dec

09

Apr

10

Aug

10

Dec

10

Apr

11

Aug

11

Dec

11

Apr

12

Aug

12

Dec

12

Apr

13

Aug

13

Dec

13

Apr

14

Aug

14

Dec

14

Core inflation (ex food and energy prices) CPI inflation Inflation target

Page 12: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.11

Macroeconomics

And the MPC persistenly dovish?

3.5

4.0

4.5WIBOR vs. reference rate

Reference rate WIBOR3M

FRA-implied WIBOR as of 08/01/14 BZ WBK forecast

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

13

Feb

13

Mar

13

Apr

13

May

13

Jun

13

Jul 1

3

Aug

13

Sep

13

Oct

13

Nov

13

Dec

13

Jan

14

Feb

14

Mar

14

Apr

14

May

14

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug

14

Sep

14

Oct

14

Nov

14

Dec

14

Source: NBP, Reuters, BZ WBK

Page 13: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.12

Macroeconomics

� The recovery has started!� In line with our expectations, at this stage of economic cycle the

recovery was initially generated mainly by exports, but we can alreadysee first signs of reviving domestic demand – consumption andinvestment,

� The recovery will be continued in 2014-2015�

SUMMARY

� The recovery will be continued in 2014-2015� Inflation still running below target, slight increase expected in 2014� The MPC’s easing cycle came to an end, official interest rates will

remain flat until mid-2014, but should rise later on. There is a risk thathikes will be implemented too late!

� EURPLN below 4.20 in the upcoming months, further strengthening toca. 4.00 at the year-end. Main risk factors: Fed, fiscal/political issues.

Page 14: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.13

Santander Group in PolandBank Zachodni WBKBank Zachodni WBK

Page 15: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.14

Santander in Poland: Bank Zachodni WBK

Santander acquired Bank Zachodni WBK

First step towards establishing the franchise in Central Eastern Europe.

Acquisition of Kredyt Bank

KBC group participation sale down

Floating 30% of the Bank

Bank of the Year - Poland

The banker, november 2012

Best Bank - Poland

Euromoney, July 2012

3rd

market player

c10%market share

2011 2012 2013

200

250

300

350

400

450

1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014

387

PLN

Santander Acquisition

KBAcquisition � KBC group

participation sale down

� Santander sold 5.2% maintaining 70%

Page 16: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.15

The BankBank Zachodni WBKBank Zachodni WBK

Page 17: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.16

BZ WBK Features

H1 Results 2013

� Branches

- incl. agencies

� ATM’s

� Employees (FTE’s)

� Corporate Banking Centers

876

105

1.426

12.800

12

Balance Sheet 30.06.2013 P & L 30.06.2013

� Assets

� Loans

� Deposits

101.341

69.840

74.596

PLN

PLN

PLN

� Income

� Cost

� PBT

� ROE

2.795

1.406

997

PLN

PLN

PLN

12.6%

Page 18: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.17

Corporate Banking

A strategically compelling transaction of BZWBK/Kredyt Bank merger

11

22

BZWBK (post merger with Kredyt Bank): nationwide network

Increased presence in Poland, an attractive market, with significant growth potential, that fits very well in Santander’s business portfolio

� Further potential to grow in a stable, underpenetrated and largemarket that Santander knows well

Improved critical mass: clear top 3 market position, with a highly complementary business mix

33 Significant cost and revenue synergies, leveraging on Santander’s group best practices

� Achieve market share close to 10%

� The new entity has a strong balance sheet

- Stable funding profile (L/D of 90%1)

- Strong capitalization pro-forma (2012E total capital of14.7%, core capital of 12.2%)

� Improve efficiency and eliminate duplications

� Productivity enhancement by combining complementarynetworks

12 Corporate Banking Centers1 Corporate Property Department1 Large Corporate Department

Retail branches(nearly 1000 locations)

Page 19: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

p.18

Products Summary

Cash Management

solutions

Trade, Export & Commodity

Finance

WorkingCapital Basic Lending

Structured Finance

Debt Capital Markets

� Syndicated Loans

� Project Finance

� Asset Finance

� Acquisition Finance

� Origination

� Structuring

� Distribution

� Private Placements

Credit Markets Global Transaction Services

Interest Rates

Foreign Exchange

� Swaps

� Options

� CCS

� Structuring

� FX Spot

� FX Forward

� Options

� Structuring

Corporate Finance

Equity

Treasury Services Capital Markets

� M&A

� Financial Advisory

� LBO’s

� MBO’s

� Public issues

� Structured Products

� Cash Equity

� Equity Derivatives

Page 20: Bank Zachodni WBK - Poland

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