Bank Zachodni WBK- Poland -Madrid, January 2014
p.1Disclaimer English
IMPORTANT: This presentation was prepared by Santander and the content herein is of a strictly confidential nature. This presentation cannot be reproduced,distributed or published by the recipient or used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Santander. Although the information contained in thispresentation was obtained from sources considered reliable, Santander cannot guarantee the accuracy and truth of the same. The opinions presented herein representthose of Santander at the present time, and are, therefore, subject to amendment and alteration. Santander is not responsible for any direct losses or reduced profitsthat may result from the use of the information contained herein.
p.2
1. Macroeconomics
2. Santander Group in Poland: Bank Zachodni WBK
3. The bank
Index
p.3
PolandMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics
p.4
Macroeconomics
We were expecting a recovery…
3.0
4.0
5.0
% Economic growth rate
forecast
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
p.5
... but it proved even stronger
3.0
4.0
5.0
% Economic growth rate
Actual value / Current …
forecast
Macroeconomics
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
p.6
Macroeconomics
4
6
8
20
30
40 Polish exports vs. German GDP (%YoY)
Recovery still export-driven
forecast
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
Polish exports (lhs)German exports (lhs)German GDP (rhs)
Source: Eurostat, BZ WBK
p.7
Macroeconomics
6
8
10
12Consumption vs. wage bill (real terms, %YoY)
forecast
... which is helping labour market and consumption
Source: GUS, BZ WBK
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1Q
01
1Q
02
1Q
03
1Q
04
1Q
05
1Q
06
1Q
07
1Q
08
1Q
09
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Wage and social benefits bill Private consumption
p.8
Macroeconomics
30
40
50 Growth of investment in private and public sectors (nominal terms, %YoY)
… as well as private investments
forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
Public investment Private investment
Source: GUS, BZ WBK
p.9
Macroeconomics
Continuation of positive tendencies in 2014-15
4.0
5.0
% Economic growth rate
forecast
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
forecast
p.10
Macroeconomics
2.53.03.54.04.55.0
Inflation (%YoY)
forecast
Inflation persistently low
0.00.51.01.52.02.5
Dec
08
Apr
09
Aug
09
Dec
09
Apr
10
Aug
10
Dec
10
Apr
11
Aug
11
Dec
11
Apr
12
Aug
12
Dec
12
Apr
13
Aug
13
Dec
13
Apr
14
Aug
14
Dec
14
Core inflation (ex food and energy prices) CPI inflation Inflation target
p.11
Macroeconomics
And the MPC persistenly dovish?
3.5
4.0
4.5WIBOR vs. reference rate
Reference rate WIBOR3M
FRA-implied WIBOR as of 08/01/14 BZ WBK forecast
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan
13
Feb
13
Mar
13
Apr
13
May
13
Jun
13
Jul 1
3
Aug
13
Sep
13
Oct
13
Nov
13
Dec
13
Jan
14
Feb
14
Mar
14
Apr
14
May
14
Jun
14
Jul 1
4
Aug
14
Sep
14
Oct
14
Nov
14
Dec
14
Source: NBP, Reuters, BZ WBK
p.12
Macroeconomics
� The recovery has started!� In line with our expectations, at this stage of economic cycle the
recovery was initially generated mainly by exports, but we can alreadysee first signs of reviving domestic demand – consumption andinvestment,
� The recovery will be continued in 2014-2015�
SUMMARY
� The recovery will be continued in 2014-2015� Inflation still running below target, slight increase expected in 2014� The MPC’s easing cycle came to an end, official interest rates will
remain flat until mid-2014, but should rise later on. There is a risk thathikes will be implemented too late!
� EURPLN below 4.20 in the upcoming months, further strengthening toca. 4.00 at the year-end. Main risk factors: Fed, fiscal/political issues.
p.13
Santander Group in PolandBank Zachodni WBKBank Zachodni WBK
p.14
Santander in Poland: Bank Zachodni WBK
Santander acquired Bank Zachodni WBK
First step towards establishing the franchise in Central Eastern Europe.
Acquisition of Kredyt Bank
KBC group participation sale down
Floating 30% of the Bank
Bank of the Year - Poland
The banker, november 2012
Best Bank - Poland
Euromoney, July 2012
3rd
market player
c10%market share
2011 2012 2013
200
250
300
350
400
450
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014
387
PLN
Santander Acquisition
KBAcquisition � KBC group
participation sale down
� Santander sold 5.2% maintaining 70%
p.15
The BankBank Zachodni WBKBank Zachodni WBK
p.16
BZ WBK Features
H1 Results 2013
� Branches
- incl. agencies
� ATM’s
� Employees (FTE’s)
� Corporate Banking Centers
876
105
1.426
12.800
12
Balance Sheet 30.06.2013 P & L 30.06.2013
� Assets
� Loans
� Deposits
101.341
69.840
74.596
PLN
PLN
PLN
� Income
� Cost
� PBT
� ROE
2.795
1.406
997
PLN
PLN
PLN
12.6%
p.17
Corporate Banking
A strategically compelling transaction of BZWBK/Kredyt Bank merger
11
22
BZWBK (post merger with Kredyt Bank): nationwide network
Increased presence in Poland, an attractive market, with significant growth potential, that fits very well in Santander’s business portfolio
� Further potential to grow in a stable, underpenetrated and largemarket that Santander knows well
Improved critical mass: clear top 3 market position, with a highly complementary business mix
33 Significant cost and revenue synergies, leveraging on Santander’s group best practices
� Achieve market share close to 10%
� The new entity has a strong balance sheet
- Stable funding profile (L/D of 90%1)
- Strong capitalization pro-forma (2012E total capital of14.7%, core capital of 12.2%)
� Improve efficiency and eliminate duplications
� Productivity enhancement by combining complementarynetworks
12 Corporate Banking Centers1 Corporate Property Department1 Large Corporate Department
Retail branches(nearly 1000 locations)
p.18
Products Summary
Cash Management
solutions
Trade, Export & Commodity
Finance
WorkingCapital Basic Lending
Structured Finance
Debt Capital Markets
� Syndicated Loans
� Project Finance
� Asset Finance
� Acquisition Finance
� Origination
� Structuring
� Distribution
� Private Placements
Credit Markets Global Transaction Services
Interest Rates
Foreign Exchange
� Swaps
� Options
� CCS
� Structuring
� FX Spot
� FX Forward
� Options
� Structuring
Corporate Finance
Equity
Treasury Services Capital Markets
� M&A
� Financial Advisory
� LBO’s
� MBO’s
� Public issues
� Structured Products
� Cash Equity
� Equity Derivatives