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Banking Crises
Fin254f: Spring 2010
Lecture notes 2.2a
Readings: Reinhart and Rogoff(10)
Outline
Bank run theory Location and frequency of runs Crises and financial liberalization Capital flow “bonanzas” Comovements
Equity prices Real estate Capacity
Consequences
Types of Banking Crises
Repressed financial systemsBank runs
Repressed Financial Systems(Emerging markets)
Developing countriesGovernment controls most bankingForce consumers to save at banksForce banks to buy government debtGovernment defaultsWipes out depositors
Bank Runs(Anywhere)
What is a bank?Bank
Borrows short term (deposits) Lends long term (assets/loan portfolio)
Investment banks, Shadow banking, hedge funds …
Classic Bank Run
Depositors lose confidenceWithdraw fundsBanks forced to sell assets (loan
portfolio) “Fire sale”/distressed/low prices
Bank can run out of assets and go bankrupt
Two Cases
Insolvent bank Bank was bankrupt anyway Liabilities>Assets
Solvent bank “liquidity crises” Can’t cover short term debt, but basically has
good loans (assets) Can still be shut down Bad economic disruption
Which one is difficult to tell
One Last Question
What is a bank?
Policies to Stop Runs
Deposit insuranceLarger banks bailout smaller onesClever temporary mergersDirect government assistance
Banks and Recessions
Pretty strong connections Bernanke, 1930s 1/2 of all US banks fail
Credit constrained models, or credit channel models of business cycles
Outline
Bank run theory Location and frequency of runs Crises and financial liberalization Capital flow “bonanzas” Comovements
Equity prices Real estate Capacity
Consequences
Fraction of Time in Banking Crisis (Independence(or 1800)
-> 2008)
Tables 10.1 and 10.2Developing
Kenya 19.6%,Nigeria 10.2, Zambia 2.2, Argentina 8.8, Russia 1.0 Mexico 9.7, China 9.1, Japan, 8.1, Singapore, 2.3, India 8.6
Developed France 11.5, Netherlands 1.9, Germany
6.6, UK 9.2, Canada 8.5, US 13
Frequency of Banking Crises
Developing Nigeria 1, China 10, India 6, Egypt 3,
Japan 8, Singapore 1, Argentina 9, Brazil 11, Chile 7, Mexico 7
Developed Germany 8, Greece 2, UK 12, France 15,
US 13, Canada 8, New Zealand 1
Summary
Both developed and developing countries
All regions
Crises and Liberalization
Figure 10.1Obstfeld-Taylor index of capital mobility
Arbitrary guess at global capital status3 year moving average of countries with
banking crisesBanking crises probabilities higher after
financial liberalization
Capital Flows and Banking Crises
Sustained capital inflow “Capital Bonanza” Three year inflows before crisis Cutoff at 20 percentile (for each country) Over threshold then Bonanza
Banking Crises and Bonanza’s
Table 10.7Prob(Crises) = 0.132Prob(Crises | Bonanza) = 0.184Share of countries where conditional
prob is greater than unconditional = 0.609
Outline
Bank run theory Location and frequency of runs Crises and financial liberalization Capital flow “bonanzas” Comovements
Equity prices Real estate Capacity
Consequences
Comovements: House Prices and Bank CrisesTable 10.8House price cycles coincide with
banking crisis yearsMagnitudes in price declines similar
between developed and developing countries
Comovements:Equity Prices and Bank Crises Figure 10.2 Peak in year t-1 Recovery started by t+2, nearly full recovery
by t+3 Much shorter than real estate Two recent examples of “no crisis” stock
market movements Crash of 87 IT bubble in 2001
Comovements:Equity Prices and Bank CrisesFigure 10.3: Number of banks around
great depression1976-1985: US Financial/GDP = 4.9%1996-2005: US Financial/GDP = 7.5%
Outline
Bank run theory Location and frequency of runs Crises and financial liberalization Capital flow “bonanzas” Comovements
Equity prices Real estate Capacity
Consequences
Bailout Costs
Difficult to measure See table 10.9 Argentina (High 55, Low 4 ) % of GDP Some types of bailouts payoff eventually
GDP growth Figure 10.4
Central government revenue Figure 10.6, 10.8
Government Debt
Government debt levels, fig 10.10 Increase in Debt (100 = start) Average 3 year increase to 186.3 Ignores state level debt
Summary
Crisis are not limited to The past Emerging markets
Pretty commonPatterns similar