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Basic Forecast Guidelines
Penn State Weather CampsSat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3
-> IR emission PROP to ?
-> Temp and Height ?
Know what to expect! = Climo.JUNE 22
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Climatology Forecast = averages for today
Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values
Modified Persistence -> Yesterday = First Guess -> Modify based on changes
Conceptual Models
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Modifying Persistence ◦What causes temperature to change?
Cloud cover:◦Day Vs. Night
Precipitation:◦When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why?
Wind and Fronts:◦Direction
N vs. S◦Speed
Day Vs. Night
Basic Forecast Guidelines
L
L
Basic Forecast Guidelines
11z TUES
-> 70,65,60Isodrosotherms-> Low, Cold &Warm Fronts
L
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Basic Forecast Guidelines
What causes rain?◦Need clouds!
Will any ole cloud do?◦Moisture supply
Bodies of water – Moisture content of air◦Upward motion:
How does this affect clouds/precip.? Mechanisms for “lift”
◦Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist.
◦(In) stability: Warm down low … cold up high!