| Strategic thinking in sustainable energy
EU Auto-Fuel Biofuels Roadmap
Dr Ausilio Bauen
European Biofuels Technology Platform
Brussels, 14 October 2014
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The EU Auto-Fuel Biofuels study provides a vision and
roadmap for biofuels in the EU to 2030
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• Transport energy and environment issues
• Policy picture is uncertain and fragmented
• Industry activity also fragmented and
biofuels deployment ineffective
• But decarbonisation and renewable energy
targets challenging
• Independent study by E4tech
commissioned by fuels and auto
industries
• Looks at what can be achieved in terms
of sustainable biofuel supply and its
integration into vehicle fleet by 2030
NGO
POLICY VEHICLES
FUELS
Steering Group
Stakeholders
The study aims to identify a biofuel-vehicle roadmap that addresses risks
and uncertainties to the satisfaction of auto, fuels, consumers and policy
stakeholders
The study is comprehensive in its consideration of
vehicles and fuels...
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Biofuels
• Non drop-in diesel
substitutes: FAME, DME
• Drop-in diesel
substitutes: HVO, FT, co-
processed (pyrolysis)
oils, sugar-to-diesel
• Non drop-in gasoline:
ethanol, methanol,
butanol
• Drop-in gasoline: co-
processed (pyrolysis)
oils, sugar-to-gasoline
• Natural gas substitutes:
Biomethane, Bio-SNG
Vehicle Categories
• Cars/LDV
• HDV
• 2-wheelers
Vehicle types
• Xx
• Xx
• ICE B7+
• ICE E5+
• PHEVs (G)
• PHEVs (D)
• EVs
• FCVs
• LPGVs
• NGVs
• ICE B7+
• ICE E5+
• EVs
• FCVs
• LPGVs
• NGVs
• E5+
• EV
• FCV
... and in its analysis of aspects influencing biofuel uptake
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Biofuels
• Competing demands for feedstocks
• Costs
• GHG emissions
• Environmental constraints and
sustainability
• Rate of introduction and ramp-up of
2G biofuels
Vehicle and Infrastructure
• Vehicle fuel economy (and GHG
emissions)
• Vehicle introduction dates
• Vehicle sales growth
• Infrastructure roll-out
• Costs
We used time-resolved models of biofuel supply and
uptake by vehicles
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Biofuel supply model
• Considers global crop planting
rates, fuel processing plant build-
up, env. and other constraints
• Outputs biofuel component
volumes, costs, well to tank CO2
Biofuel uptake model
• Considers vehicle fleet size,
replacement rates, usage trends,
technology costs and CO2
legislation; demand from aviation,
marine, rail & off-highway
• Outputs parc composition and its
bio-compatibility, vehicle and
infrastructure costs, potential
biofuel uptake, tank to wheels CO2
Vehicle fleet
baseline
Model of
potential
biofuel
uptake
Model of
potential
biofuel
supply
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Context
scenarios
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START
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Pathways
� Project Output
Matching
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Oils, LC biomass, glycerine, starch & sugar
crops
Trans-esterification, hydro-processing, gasification + FT,
microbial conversion, pyrolysis
Biodiesel, diesel
Glycerine, LC biomassGasification + chemical
synthesisDME
Organic wastes, LC biomass
Anaerobic digestion, gasification
Biomethane
Starch & sugar crops, organic wastes, LC
biomass
Fermentation, gasification, microbial
conversion
Bioethanol, biomethanol, gasoline
Organic wastes, LC biomass
Pyrolysis Gasoline, diesel
Fuel Additional Technology
Additional per vehicle cost over
E10/B7 (Euro 6) baseline
Car LDV Bus Truck
E20 Materials, calibration, CO2 optimization potential if
octane number increased+ n/a n/a n/a
E85 Wide-range lambda-sensing, new fuel lift pump, fuel
injection system material (stainless steel), CO2
optimization potential if octane number increased
++ n/a n/a n/a
B10 Materials, calibration, oil sensing/ change interval ++ ++ ++ ++
B20 Further after-treatment optimization (higher noble
metal content), CO2 penalty for 3-5 g CO2/km, new
DPF regeneration strategy, oil sensing
+++ +++ +++ +++
We explored economic and policy scenarios to test the
sensitivity and resilience of the roadmap
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• Each scenario includes
regulatory assumptions to
and beyond 2020:
• Vehicle tailpipe CO2
• Fuel-chain CO2
• And assumptions on the
evolution of vehicle fleets
and biofuels
• Rate of introduction of
long-term technologies
(electricity, hydrogen) vs
cheaper short-mid term
solutions (smaller cars,
efficiency, natural gas )
• Rate of biofuel dev., level
of imports
Liquid fossil fuels likely to continue to dominate road
transport fuel supply to 2030
8Note: liquid bio-components would be part of gasoline and diesel pools
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69 67 70 70 58 57 58 58
192
172 171 171 171165 162 157 152
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A B C D A B C D
Mto
e/y
ea
r
Road transport fuel demand
H2 Electricity NG
LPG Diesel type fuels Gasoline type fuels
2010 2020 2030
Scenario:
Biofuels alone could contribute at least 8% of the 10%
RED target in 2020
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1.6%1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
1.3%1.3% 1.3%
1.9%
3.1%
2.9%3.0% 2.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Contribution of biofuels to the RED target
Road - Diesel non drop-in supply
Road - Diesel drop-in
Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Ethanol]
Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Butanol]
Road - Biogas
Total double-counting biofuels*
Off road - Biofuel
Inland shipping - Biofuel
Aviation - Biofuel
Rail - Biodiesel
* This amount represents the calculated total amount of
biofuels used in transport that are eligible for double
counting
By 2030, biofuels could contribute between 12 to 15% of
road transport fuel energy
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0.8% 0.8%1.3%
1.5%
2.7% 2.6%2.3%
2.2%
2.3% 2.9%2.9%
6.0%
4.6% 3.6%
4.6%
2.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Biofuel contribution to transport fuel by 2030
(on energy basis)
Road - Diesel non drop-in supply
Road - Diesel drop-in
Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Ethanol]
Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Butanol]
Road - Biogas
Off road - Biofuel
Inland shipping - Biofuel
Aviation - Biofuel
Rail - Biodiesel
Successful deployment of biofuels will depend on a
shared fuel and automotive industry vision and roadmap
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Develop E20 fuel
standard
Deploy E10 to max. availability by 2020
E20 introduction as a base blend in
2025 and E10 becomes the protection
grade
Introduction of E20 tolerant vehicles
into the fleet
All new gasoline vehicles E20 compatible from 2018
Only 62% of vehicles would be E20 tolerant in 2025. The following options would increase this proportion to a level that
would allow mass introduction of E20 in 2025: car sales incentives, a shift to more gasoline sales, engine re-mapping
E20 Consumer awareness programme
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Eth
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8.3% ethanol because 18% of all gasoline refuelling is done
at forecourts with only E5 and 20% of E10 compatible
vehicle owners will refuel with E5 while E10 is available
Start with 3 grade markets and progress
to 2 grade markets later. Max. fuel
availability reached by 2030
B7 remains FAME blend limit
First of a kind/early commercial LC etOH, butanol, FT
diesel, HVO
First of a kind and early commercial plants of additional new technologies, e.g. micro-
algae, sugar to diesel, pyrolysis
Ramp up of technologies
FA
ME
No
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A coherent and overarching road transport policy to 2030
remains critical in meeting climate and energy objectives
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2030 Sustainable Transport Strategy
Vehicles policy
EU 2030 road transport policy
Vehicle energy
infrastructure
policy
Fuels policy
Policy should provide long term clarity to stimulate fuel
efficiency, alternative vehicles, and alternative fuels
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Policy recommendations:
• A single 2030 GHG emissions reduction target for the combined auto-fuel industries
• An economically efficient allocation of the target across the fuel and auto industry
• A harmonised implementation across the EU via direct regulation on the auto and fuel
industry (separately) or directives
Policy considerations:
• Evidence of what could be achieved through fuel and vehicle measures
• Development of required fuel and vehicle technologies, and infrastructure
• Consumer education and acceptance
• A framework for the deployment of biofuels, including harmonising blend levels, across
Europe and accelerating the introduction of E20.
A biofuels policy framework should cover sustainability,
advanced biofuels, infrastructure and consumer issues
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A sustainability framework
should encourage:
• certification of biofuels
• use of waste or
underutilised resources
• biofuels with greater GHG
savings
• ILUC mitigation measures
• a global market
An advanced biofuels
framework should:
• specify share of emissions
reductions from advanced
biofuels
• provide support to a cross-
industry roadmap to 2030
• include initiatives at MS
level
A framework on infrastructure
and vehicles requires:
• a CEN mandate to develop
E20
• harmonisation of blend
rates across Europe
• consumer engagement
Alignment with current 2030 policy proposals on biofuels sustainability
and competition between uses of biomass resources
A harmonised biofuels roadmap is important in achieving
the EU 2030 climate and energy policy proposal’s aims
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The roadmap is:
• Relevant to the policy proposal’s context
• Oil prices expected to remain high
• EU increasingly dependent on energy imports
• EU 2050 Roadmaps – Transport: GHG savings: 60% by 2050 (1990); 20% by 2030
(2008)
• Aligned with its high level policy objectives
• EU-wide energy market integration
• Cooperation between MSs in developing national plans
• Affordable, competitive, secure and sustainable energy
• Energy sector contribution to jobs and growth
• Important in meeting the non-ETS and renewable targets
• GHG emissions reduction target to 2030 (40% r. 1990)
• Non-ETS target allocated amongst MSs (30% r. 2005)
• Renewable energy target (27%)
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