BCPG Public Company LimitedQ1 2017 Analyst Meeting
11 May 2017
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Q1 2017 Key Highlight & Performance
New Investment
Value Enhancement
Going Forward
1
2
3
4
Agenda
3
Key Highlight
4
COD of 12 MWPPA Solar Co-operative with FiT of
THB 5.66 since 14 March 2017
Announce dividend payment of THB 0.15 per
share from Q4 2016 performance
COD of 10.5 MWPPA Nagi project in March 2017,
brining total Japan operating capacity to 30 MWPPA
61 THBm gain from sale of Suimei
Philippines: Signed SPA to invest in 50 MW
wind project (40% shareholding)
Indonesia: Signed SPA to invest in 995 MW
geothermal project (17.3-20.0% shareholding)
118.0
+7.0+5.0
10.7
+8.8 +10.5
+200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q1 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
Thailand Japan New Investment
160MWPPA
MWPPA
Contracted Capacity
360MWPPA
Japan
Thailand
New Investment
5
Thailand Contracted Capacity
“130 MWPPA in operation
providing stable & reliable cash flow”
6
Japan Contracted Capacity
Higher return by creating cost efficiency
Additional 41.5 MWPPA (51.2 MWDC) pipeline awaiting
grid connection
“Secured high FiT
projects
& Attractive financing scheme”
Contracted Capacity
11
+9
+11
+75.0
+5
0
30
60
90
120
2015 2016 2017 2018
141 MWDC109 MWPPA
MW
Operating Project Under Development
78
3
78
3
75
7
79
8
62
4
62
4
55
0
62
2
40
8
63
0
33
3
457
39
0
61
3
11
4
45
4
0
250
500
750
1,000
Q1 2016 Q1 2016 (Restated) Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Sales EBITDA Net profit (before Fx) Net profit (after Fx)
YoY QoQ
Sales +1.9% +5.5%
EBITDA -0.4% +13.0%
NP (Before Fx) +12.0% -18.3%
NP (After Fx) +16.3% +33.4%
EBITDA -0.4% +13.0%
NP (Before Fx) -27.5% +37.3%
NP (After Fx) -25.9% +299.5%
Performance
Group Performance
7
THBm
Be
fore
Re
sta
teA
fte
r R
esta
te
Q1 2017 net income increased by 16.3% (before restated FS).
Due to gain from bargaining purchase of Japan projects from SunEdson on Feb 2016, Q1 2016 FS was
restated according to IFRS 3 (Business Combination). Q1 2016 net profit was restated to 613 THBm.
0 250 500 750 1,000
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
BCPG BSE BSE-BRM BSE-BRM 1
BSE-CPM 1 BSE-NMA BSE-PRI Natkatsugawa
Takamori Nojiri Tarumizu Nikaho
Nagi
THBm
YoY +1.9%
QoQ +5.5%
Q1 2017 electricity sale increased by 1.9% YoY and 5.5% QoQ resulting from COD of 12 MW Solar Co-operative
and 19.3 MW Japan projects (Nikaho and Nagi project) during Q4 2016 -Q1 2017.
Revenue contribution from Japan is 10.2% in Q1 2017 increased from 5.2% in Q1 2016
Sales Structure
782.75
756.63
797.98
Electricity Sale by Project
8
Production volume Q1 2017 of Thai solar
plants increased by 1% YoY from COD of
12 MW Solar co-operative.
Revenue from 118 MW plants decreased by
5.5% YoY from lower average base tariff and
impact of irradiation and degradation.
In Japan, the production volume was 6.6 m
kWh, an increase of 109.5% YoY. The tariff is
fixed at JPY 36 or 40 per unit over 20 years.
Electricity Generation
Electricity Generation FY16
3.38 3.06 3.11
0
2
4
Q1 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Average Base Tariff – Thailand
THB/unit
-
4036 -40
0
20
40
60
Q1 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Feed in Tariff – Japan
JPY/unit
9
m kWh
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q4 Q1
-3.1% Lower Irradiation &Degradation
-8.0% Lower Tariff 18 THBm
22 THBm
Factors impacting Q1 2017 revenue
Thailand
Japan
12 MW Solar Co-operative 15 THBm
Q1 2017 EBITDA still maintain the same level
compared to Q1 2016
EBITDA & Net Profit
626 624550
622
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q1 2016 Q1 2016(Restated)
Q4 2016 Q1 2017
79.8% 79.8%72.7% 78.0%
EBITDA
10
THB m
408
630
333457390
613
114
454
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q1 2016 Q1 2016(Restated)
Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Net Profit (Before Fx)
Net profit (After Fx)
Net Profit
THB m
51.9%
62.2%
42.1%
51.8%54.9%
49.6%
60.5%
14.4%
51.5%
33.4%
Q1 2017 Net profit was 453.99 THBm
increased by 16.3% YoY (before restated FS).
This higher net profit caused by
• Higher revenues from new solar plants
in both Thai and Japan
• Gain from sales of Suimei
According to restated Q1 2016 financial
statement, it caused net profit increased to
612.52 THBm
EBITDA Margin (%)
Peer Comparison
11
80
.0%
79
.3%
72
.0%
52
.1%
47
.6%
43
.7%
33
.2%
32
.0%
26
.4%
22
.8%
17
.7%
12
.2%
7.5
%
78
.0%
29
.8%
16
.9%
SU
PE
R
BC
PG
SP
CG
EA
TP
CH
TS
E
GLO
W
EG
CO
GU
NK
UL
BP
P
GP
SC
RA
TC
H
IFE
C
FY2016 Q1 2017
Source: Companies’ Financial Statements and SET
Remark: EBITDA Margin & Net Profit Margin excluding gain/loss on FX.
Adjusted BCPG’s FY2016 EBITDA Margin and Net Profit Margin by excluding one-time costs.
60.9
%
53.6
%
47.2
%
43.8
%
36.3
%
32.1
%
26.5
%
18
.8%
17.6
%
13.2
%
11.5
%
11.4
%
10.9
%
51.8
%
13.6
%
13.4
%
TS
E
BC
PG
SP
CG
BP
P
TP
CH
EA
EG
CO
GL
OW
GU
NK
UL
GP
SC
RA
TC
H
SU
PE
R
IFE
C
FY2016 Q1 2017
Net Profit Margin (%)
14,195 14,196
9,182 9,177
12,812 12,812
3,015 2,485
8,956 8,971
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Other non-current assets PPECurrent assets R/E & other equitiesPaid-up capital Other liabilitiesLong-term loans Short-term loans
0.15x
THBm
Financial Position
2016 Q1 2017
25,489 25,516
At Q1 2017, total assets increased to 25,516.08 THBm or +0.1% QoQ mainly caused by the assets’ value of
Nagi project and 5 MW solar Coop.
As a result from fund raising and earning in 2016, the Company maintained net D/E ratio at 0.12x and
liquidity ratio of 4.3x in Q1 2017.
Net D/E ratio
3.6
4.4
3.44.3
2016 Q1 2017
Liquidity ratio Quick ratio
6.0% 6.1%
11.4% 11.2%
2016 Q1 2017
ROA ROE
Capital Structure Liquidity Ratio
ROA & ROE
12
A L + E L + EA
0.12x
Q1 2017 Key Highlight & Performance
New Investment
Value Enhancement
Going Forward
1
2
3
4
Agenda
13
Philippines: Nabas Wind Farm
• Acquisition of 40% shares in a 50 MW Wind Farm expecting to complete
in Q2/17
• Establish a footprint in the Philippines Renewable Energy
• BCPG’s first expansion into Wind Farm Technology
• Proven 2 years operations track record
• Stable cashflow with upside from tariff increase & project expansion
• Opportunity to partner with an influential local business group
14
15
50 MW Wind Farm
Target PetroWind Energy Inc.
Location Nabas Town, Visayas, Philippines
Investment Up to USD 28.5 m
Installed Capacity• Phase 1 : Operating 36 MW
• Phase 2 : Developing 14 MW
Turbine Gamesa G90 (Spain)
Capacity Factor 35% - 40% (Q1 44% - 62%)
FIT Rate7.40 PHP/kWh (Yearly Escalated)
(5.4 THB/kWh, 0.15 USD/kWh)
First COD 10 June 2015
D/E 70:30 From PDB
Status• Closing Expected Mid May 17
• Pending Project Lender’s Consent
Philippines: Nabas Wind Farm
▪ Dispatch priority as base load @ Renewable Tariff
▪ Operating asset, immediately deliver net profit
▪ Assets built and operated at Unocal & Chevron Standard
▪ Proven partnership with Thai investors (EGCO, SCG)
▪ Fit with BCPG’s strategy: Large Renewable Energy portfolio
▪ Indonesia is the world’s largest potential of Geothermal
▪ Solid expansion plan
Indonesia: Geothermal Projects
16
Stable Operation
& Gov’t Support
Strong Partner
& Operator
Strategic
Expansion
2
1
3
Self-funded
Organic Growth
4
227 200 110 80 60 55
120
Sala
k
Wayang
Win
du
Da
raja
t
Kam
oja
ng
Ulu
be
lu
La
hen
don
g
Die
ng
Patu
ha
Sumatra
Kalimantan
JavaBali
Salak 377 MW
(17.3% to BCPG: 65.2 MW)
Wayang Windu 347 MW
(20.0% to BCPG: 69.4 MW)
Darajat 271 MW
(17.3% to BCPG: 46.9 MW)
Effective to BCPG: 181.5 MW
(Under development 24 MW)
Geothermal Power Plants in Indonesia
Unit: MW
347377
271
Sulawesi
Indonesia: Geothermal Projects
BCPG is acquiring stakes in three largest geothermal power plant in Indonesia
17
Geothermal Resources
Major Volcanoes.
Ring of Fire
USA
3,450 MW
Philippines 1,870
MW
Indonesia
1,340 MW
Italy 916 MW
Kenya 594 MW
Turkey 397 MW
665 MW
Global Geothermal Power Plants
Total Installed Capacity in 2014 ~ 12,000 MW
3
2
1
Source: Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2015 and interviews to specialized expert.
Potential geothermal resources are located around the Ring of Fire. Indonesia has the largest potential.
1,300
4,160
700
300
350
100
665
1,200
100
1,000
207
159
US
Indonesia
Philippines
Mexico
New Zealand
Italy
Iceland
Kenya
Japan
Turkey
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Nicaragua
Installed Capacity
Announced DevelopingCapacity
Japan
519 MW
Mexico
1,017 MW
5
New Zealand
1,005 MW
4
Announced Planned Capacity (MW)
18
52%
66%
21%
10%
11%
1%
6%
7%
4%
7%
4%
9%
2015 2024
Geothermal
LNG
Hydro
Oil
Gas
Coal
Indonesia Electricity Demand
Planned Installed Capacity (GW) by fuel mix
Indonesia with largest population in AEC and growing, electricity generation capacity is expecting to
double by 2024
49.6 GW
108.3 GW
Forecasted Electricity Generation by Fuel Mix
Geothermal
1.68
2.96 3.20
Coal Gas Geothermal
Base Load Tariff Comparison (THB/kWh)
• Thailand SPP Coal and Gas average tariff May – Aug 2017
19
Star Energy Group
Holdings Pte Ltd
Wayang
Windu
33.33%
60%
Star Energy Geo
(Salak – Darajat) B.V.
100%41% 27%
BCPG is acquiring 33% of Holding Company, effectively owning 20% in Wayang Windu and 17.3% in Salak and Darajat
Shareholding Structure
20%
20%
Salak Darajat
12%
20%
Star Energy
Geothermal Pte Ltd
66.67%
Seller’s Group
• Forestry & Plantation
• Property
• Geothermal Power plant
• Partnership with
• Exploration and Production
• Petrochemical
• Partnership with
40%
20%
20%
39% 39%
17.3% 17.3%
20% 20%20
Key Assumptions
Asset Unit Capacity COD Expiry Sales
Tariff
(UScent/
kWh)1
Take-or-
Pay
Net Profit
2016
(USD m)
Wayang
Windu
Unit 1 110 MW Jun 2000
2052 Electricity
9.6
95% 53Unit 2 117 MW Mar 2009 9.6
Unit 3-4 120 MWJun 2020,
Jun 2022
To be
negotiated2
347 MW
Salak Unit 1-3 180 MW 1994 (unit 1&2)
1997 (unit 3)2040
Steam 6.2 95%793
Unit 4-6 197 MW 1997 Electricity 7.2 90%
377 MW
DarajatUnit 1 55 MW 1994
2047
Steam 5.1 80%
543
Unit 2-3 216 MW2000 (unit 2)
2007 (unit 3)Electricity
6.7 (unit 2),
7.1 (unit 3)95%
271 MW
Offtaker: PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
Remark: 1Tariff is monthly escalated. Main factors are US CPI, US PPI, and etc.2Gov’t Ceiling Tariff of 13.8 US cent /kWh & 14.6 US cent/kWh in 2020 & 20223Unaudited financial statements 2016
21
22
Country Thailand Japan Philippines Indonesia
Type Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Wind Geothermal
Scheme Adder Co-op 1 Co-op 2FIT 40
JPY
FIT 36
JPY
FIT 32
JPYFIT 7.4 PHP FIT
Yield (kWh/kWp) 1,450 – 1,650 1,100 – 1,280 3,000 – 3,500 8,000 – 8,700
Operating hours 4 – 4.5 3 – 3.5 8.4 - 9.6 22 – 24
Tariff (THB/kWh) 11.5 5.66 4.12 13.6 12.2 10.9 5.4 3.2
Investment
(THB m/MW)90 50 42 100 - 120 129 155
Revenues
(THB m/MW)17 8 6 15 13 12 19 26
Investment IRR >20% >20% 12%-15% >20% 15%-20% 10%-15% 12%-15% 12%-15%
Industry Benchmark
Q1 2017 Key Highlight & Performance
New Investment
Value Enhancement
Going Forward
1
2
3
4
Agenda
23
Financial Structure to strengthen return
• Tax Efficient GK-TK structure
• Project Finance at low interest rate
• Strategically divest Project under dispute to manage risk / realize profit
Technical Structure to enhance value
• Optimized energy output through oversized installation
• Advanced technology to lower EPC Cost and expedite construction
• Integration with Operational HQ in Thailand
Bargain from Final Payment Negotiation
• Final Payment Negotiated with Seller to improve economics
Portfolio Acquisition
• Brownfield Projects immediately generating cashflow
• Developing Projects with structured payment to minimize risk
Japan Value Enhancement
Through series of value enhancement, return from Japan Acquisition has been significantly improved
1
2
3
4
3,383 2,103
2,454
Obligation FinalSettlement
Irradiation
Development Milestone
5,837
2,103
Final Payment to Seller (JPY)
115 10687 87
919
Acquisition FinalSettlement
EPC Cost Current
All-in Cost (THB/Wp)
24
Q1 2017 Key Highlight & Performance
New Investment
Value Enhancement
Going Forward
1
2
3
4
Agenda
25
26Hydro Power
193 MW
50 MW (Effective : 20 MW)182 + 25 MW
Geographical Focus
Solar Power Wind Biomass Geothermal
Existing Secured& Potential
Target
375
+398
1,000 MWDC
New potential project in
Solar Coop Phase IIBiomass
Hybrid Power
• Focus on new
technology to improve
cost efficiency
Expected to closing transaction in May 2017
Signed SPA
995 MW (Effective : 182 MW)
+202
Going Forward
+25
Going Forward
27
Q&A