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SHAKIL'A'ROMSHOO'Professor'and'Head,'Dept.'of'Earth'Sciences,'KU'
Man>Bear'Conflict'and'the'Changing'Landscape'in'Kashmir:''
''''''''''''''''''A'FEW'THOUGHTS'
PRESENTATION'OUTLINE'! MEDIA'POLITICS'! GROUND'FACTS'! A'FEW'THOUGHTS'! LAND'SYSTEM'CHANGES'! CC'AND'WATER'RESOURCES'! HABITAT'INFRINGEMENT''! WATERSHED'SCALE'! TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'
POLITICS'
Year' Total'Conflicts'1995' 1'1996' 1'1997' 2'1998' 1'1999' 1'2000' 5'2001' 8'2002' 7'2003' 7'2004' 19'2005' 48'2006' 51'2007' 80'2008' 130'2009' 186'
THE'OTHER'SIDE'……'
• INCREASING BEAR ATTACKS ACROSS THE VALLEY
• ILL EQUIPPED GOVT. MACHINERY
THE OTHER SIDE …..
• POOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM & NO ACTION PLAN
• Lack of concrete and holistic measures on the ground
• Lack of awareness among the people • Thus, BEAR-PHOBIA, Frustration and PANIC
REACTIONS
Bear'AWack'Cases'operated'at'SKIIMS,'Srinagar''
A'FEW'THOUGHTS………'" Tremendous'transformaZon'of'the'socioeconomic'
and' environmental' scenario' in' the' valley' during'the'last'five'decades'
" Changing'land'system:'parZcularly'the'large'scale'conversion'of'land'to'horZculture''
" Changing' Climate:' Scanty' and' eraZc' snowfall' in'the'region'
" Changes' in' stream>flows,' drainage' and'depleZon'of'water'bodies/wetlands'
" UrbanizaZon'along'the'foothills'and'forest'areas'" DeforestaZon…..?'" Bear'populaZon??'
CONFLICT ZONE
HISTORICAL'Bear'Habitat'
HISTORICALLY'NO'BEAR'ZONE'
BEAR>MAN'CONFLICT'ZONE'SINCE'LAST'10'YERS'NOW'
Conflict (Death + Injuries) Statistics, Data Source-J & K Wildlife Department
'! 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total
Anantnag 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 6 3 1 7 27 44 63 154 Bandipora 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 7 1 2 4 1 6 28 Baramulla 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 7 4 4 22 29 72 Budgam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3
Ganderbal 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 5 1 0 20 35 Kulgam 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 9 2 5 7 31
Kupwara 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 16 7 10 43 Pulwama 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 3 18 8 15 42 31 123 Srinagar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 5 1 9 25
Anantnag > Pulwama > Baramulla > Kupwara > Ganderbal > Kulgam > Srinagar > Budgam
9'Districts' 76'Villages'
Land'System'Changes'SINCE'1972'
CLASS NAME! 1972 AREA (HA)! 1992 AREA (HA)! 2008AREA (HA)!FOREST! 485473.31! 464798.36! 391368.55!AGRICULTURE! 337788.45! 301094.00! 269138.93 !PLANTATION! 92240.15! 89443.34! 85876.76 !HORTICULTURE ! 17954.44! 28858.26! 71899.18!WATER! 12795.11! 11024.42! 6827.09!RIVER BED! 9899.81! 9812.22! 7512.82!AQUA_VEGETATION! 3981.44! 7503.56! 11729.20!BUILT-UP! 578.07! 5914.96! 21432.81!
Drying'up'of'the'Water'Holes'
!!
!!
!!
!!
!! !
0!
100!
200!
300!
1971!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
2010!
Yearly Discharge-Dachigam
Years
Di
scha
rge
(Cus
ecs)
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
yearly&discharge-Batakot&
&&&&&&&&&&Years&
Dis
char
ge (C
usec
s)
0!
200!
400!
600!
1971!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
2010!
yearly&discharge-Odour&
&&&&&&&&&&Years&
Di
scha
rge
(Cus
ecs)
20!
220!
420!
620!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
yearly&discharge-Bringi&
&&&&&&&&&&&&Years&
Dis
char
ge (C
usec
s)
20!
220!
420!1971!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
2010!
yearly&discharge-Sandran&
&&&&&&&&&&Years&
D
isch
arge
(Cus
ecs)
50!
250!
450!
197
197
197
198
198
198
198
199
199
199
200
200
200
201
yearly&discharge-Sukhnag&
&&&&&&&&&Years&
Di
scha
rge
(Cus
ecs)
100!
600!
1100!
1600!
1971!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
Yearly&Discharge-Pohru&
&&&&&&&&&Years&
Dis
char
ge (C
usec
s)
200!
700!
1200!
1700!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
Yearly&discharge-Vishu&
&&&&&&&&&Years&
Disc
harg
e (C
usec
s)
0!
20!
40!
60!
80!
1971!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
2010!
yearly&discharge-Dakhil&
&&&&&&&&&Years&
D
isch
arge
(Cus
ecs)
0!
50!
100!1971!
1974!
1977!
1980!
1983!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
2010!
yearly&discharge-Vij&
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&Years&
D
isch
arge
(Cus
ecs)
STREAMFLOW''DECLINE'
0!50!100!150!200!250!300!350!400!450!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
J
0!100!200!300!400!500!600!700!800!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
F
0!200!400!600!800!
1000!1200!1400!1600!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
M
0!
500!
1000!
1500!
2000!
2500!
3000!
3500!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007! 0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007! 0!
1000!2000!3000!4000!5000!6000!7000!8000!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007! 0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
0!
500!
1000!
1500!
2000!
2500!
3000!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
S
0!
500!
1000!
1500!
2000!
2500!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007! 0!
100!200!300!400!500!600!700!800!900!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007! 0!
100!
200!
300!
400!
500!
600!
1971!
1975!
1979!
1983!
1987!
1991!
1995!
1999!
2003!
2007!
Demographic'Changes'• The!state!of!has!also!shown!popula=on!growth!from!2.14!million!in!1901!to!12.5!million!2011.!!
• A!growth!rate!of!about!23%!compared!to!the!popula=on!figures!of!10.1!million!in!2001.!!
!
!
Popula=on!changes!from!1981J2001!
Habitat'Conflict:'Bear'&'Man'can’t'Co>exist''
Forest'resource'Assessment'
Forest'FragmentaZon!'Does'it'maWer'here?'
Habitat'Infringement''
Understanding''the'conflict:'WATERSHED'SCALE'
WATERSHED>WISE'
Conflict Zone 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tot
Arin-Madhumati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 5
Rembaira & Romshi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 7
Sukhnag & Doodganga 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 11
Bringi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 8 17
Vijay-Dhakil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 8 9 23
Dal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 4 1 9 24
Sandran & Vishav 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 6 9 25
Ferzpr-Ningl-Gundr-lowJhe 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 10 10 30
Wular1-Pohru 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 15 8 10 45
Sindh 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 7 8 6 4 1 24 56
Kuthar 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 16 12 16 20 70
Lidder 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 5 3 2 5 16 27 43 103
Arapal 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 17 9 17 41 40 131
HorZcult' Forest' urban' Agric'Anchar' + - + - Arapal' + - + + Bringi' + - + - Dal' + - + - Doodhganga' + - + - Garzan' + - + - Sukhnag' + - + - Kuthar' + - + + Lidder' + - + + Sandran' + - + - Sind' + - + - Rembiara' + - + - Romshi' + - + - Vishav' + - + - Arin' + - + - Ferozpur' + - + - Gundar' + - + + Lower'Jhelum' + - + + MadumaZ' + - + + Ningal' + - + + Pohru' + - + + Vijay'Dhakil' + - + + Wular'I' + - + - Wular'II' + - + -
WATERSHED>WISE'
WATERSHED-WISE ARAPAL
2' 3'1' 1'
17'
9'
17'
41' 40'
2001' 2002' 2003' 2004' 2005' 2006' 2007' 2008' 2009'
Arapal&
Class&& Area'(hec)>72' Area(hec)>08' Change''Forest' 24366' 17518' >6848'HorZculture' 858' 1362' +504'Agriculture' 15064' 17192' +2128'Built_up' 85' 876' +791'
1! 0! 1!5! 3! 2!
5!
16!
27!
43!
2000' 2001' 2002' 2003' 2004' 2005' 2006' 2007' 2008' 2009'
WATERSHED-WISE LIDDER
Lidder&
Class&& Area'(hec)>72' Area(hec)>08' Change'in'area'Forest' 58275' 38467' >19808'HorZculture' 884' 2957' +2073'Agriculture' 18544' 17623' >921'Built_up' 65' 213' +148.39435'
SEASONALITY IN ATTACKS (ARAPAL WATERSHED)
Conflict Zone Map
TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'! NEED'FOR'INTROSPECTION'AS'THE'PROBLEM'IS'
OUTCOME'OF'OUR'FAULTY'&'MYOPIC'STRATEGIES'AT'BOTH'GOVT.'AND'PERSONAL'LEVEL'
! 'NEED'FOR'AN'INDEPTH'SCIENTIFIC'ANALYSIS'TO'LOOK'AT'THE'ROOT'CAUSES'
! NEED'FOR'AN'ACTION'PLAN'SO'THAT'CONCRETE'STEPS'ARE'TAKEN'TO'ARREST'THE'CONFLICT'
! ADHOCISM'AND'KNEE'JERK'REACTIONS'SHOULD'GIVE'WAY'TO'WELL>THOUGHT>OUT>'ACTION'PLAN''
! 'INVOLVEMENT'AND'AWARENESS'OF'THE'COMMUNTIES'
TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'IT' IS' THE' COLLECTIVE' FAILURE' OF' THE'GOVERNMENT' MACHINERY' THAT' HAS'FAILED' TO' UNDERSTAND' THE' CAUSAL'FACTORS'AND'HAVE'NOT'COME'UP'WITH'A' ROBUST' ACTION' PLAN' TO' TACKLE' THE'PROBLEM.''
SO' WHY' THIS' MISDIRECTION'OF'MEDIA/CENTRE'TIRADE?'