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Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend...

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Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P 9:45 Markit Manufacturing 56.3 12/16 0.7 0.18 10:00 Construction Spend 1.0 12/1 0.5 1.13 Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst 8:30 Initial Claims 830 12/23 880 803 -77 0.07 Ener R. Est 8:30 Continuing Claims 5390 12/23 5560 5337 -223 0.07 Ener R. Est 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stockpiles (-129) Last Report Upgrades Ticker Firm From To None Downgrades Ticker Firm From To None Initiations/Reiterations Ticker Firm Action Rating AIRC JP Morgan Initiated Neutral GOOGL Baird Reiterated Outperf - Futures Flat Heading Into Last Trading Day of Year. - Japan Says it Will Consider a State of Emergency as Cases Surge. Trading Up ($): MSTR (12.23), TSLA (9.19), CELH (5.5), GOOGL (3.48), AXSM (2.74), ENPH (2.28) Trading Down ($): CPRI (-2.2), NETE (-1.55), ABNB (-1.02), AI (-0.99), FUBO (-0.97), SNOW (-0.67) -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 Percent Change Asia Opens Europe Opens Today’s Events Stock Specific News of Note Noteworthy Macro Events Other Markets Overnight Trading Tomorrow Overnight Trading Analyst Actions Indicators/Events Market Timing Model © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information. Earnings Reports Economic Indicators & Events BespokePremium.com For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward 1 Ticker News AAPL Removes 39K game apps from App store in China to comply with government regulations. AXSM Reports positive results from Phase 3 trial of migraine treatment. AZN Submits data package to EU agency to support application for COVID vaccine. IPI Company says that fertilizer market has shown improvement in recent weeks. TPCO Alden Capital will offer to acquire remaining shares of company for $14.25 per share. Bearish Bullish Category One Week Two Weeks One Month Sentiment 0.10 0.26 0.66 Technicals 0.08 0.14 0.45 Fundamental 0.17 0.37 0.57 Overall 0.10 0.21 0.59 Average (all days) 0.15 0.30 0.61 Expected S&P 500 Return (%) Neutral Index Changes Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs. CALM 1/4/20 AM -0.06 337 SINA 1/4/20 AM 0.77 560 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 Estimate 10:00 Fed's Evans Speaks About Economy and Fed Policy 10:00 Fed's Bostic Speaks on Economy 12:15 Fed's Mester Speals at AEA Meeting ORI 1.00 CSCO 0.36 RJF 0.39 DOC 0.23 DG 0.36 Conferences & Meetings Dividends & Splits ENPH Will replace TIF in the S&P 500 effective 1/7. CPRI Will replace ENPH in the S&P 400 effective 1/7. CELH Will replace CPRI in the S&P 600 effective 1/7. BRKS Will replace WPX in the S&P 400 effective 1/7. ELF Will replace BRKS in the S&P 600 effective 1/7. h Closed % h 1.9 h Closed i -1.3 Oil 47.94 i -$0.5 Gold 1897.4 h $4.0 $/Euro 0.815 h 0.00 $/Yen 103.08 i -0.1 Bitcoin 28,861 i -46 10-Yr 0.92 h 0.00 Japan China Germany UK
Transcript
Page 1: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

9:45 Markit Manufacturing 56.3 12/16 0.7 0.18

10:00 Construction Spend 1.0 12/1 0.5 1.13

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

8:30 Initial Claims 830 12/23 880 803 -77 0.07 Ener R. Est

8:30 Continuing Claims 5390 12/23 5560 5337 -223 0.07 Ener R. Est

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stockpiles (-129)

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

None

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

None

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

AIRC JP Morgan Initiated Neutral

GOOGL Baird Reiterated Outperf

- Futures Flat Heading Into Last Trading Day of Year.

- Japan Says it Will Consider a State of Emergency as Cases Surge.

Trading Up ($):

MSTR (12.23), TSLA (9.19), CELH (5.5), GOOGL (3.48), AXSM (2.74), ENPH (2.28)

Trading Down ($):

CPRI (-2.2), NETE (-1.55), ABNB (-1.02), AI (-0.99), FUBO (-0.97), SNOW (-0.67)-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Economic Indicators & Events

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AAPL Removes 39K game apps from App store in China to comply with government regulations.

AXSM Reports positive results from Phase 3 trial of migraine treatment.

AZN Submits data package to EU agency to support application for COVID vaccine.

IPI Company says that fertilizer market has shown improvement in recent weeks.

TPCO Alden Capital will offer to acquire remaining shares of company for $14.25 per share.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.10 0.26 0.66

Technicals 0.08 0.14 0.45

Fundamental 0.17 0.37 0.57

Overall 0.10 0.21 0.59

Average (all days) 0.15 0.30 0.61

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

Index Changes

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

CALM 1/4/20 AM -0.06 337

SINA 1/4/20 AM 0.77 560

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

Estimate

10:00 Fed's Evans Speaks About Economy and Fed Policy

10:00 Fed's Bostic Speaks on Economy

12:15 Fed's Mester Speals at AEA Meeting

ORI 1.00 CSCO 0.36

RJF 0.39 DOC 0.23

DG 0.36

Conferences & Meetings

Dividends & Splits

ENPH Will replace TIF in the S&P 500 effective 1/7.

CPRI Will replace ENPH in the S&P 400 effective 1/7.

CELH Will replace CPRI in the S&P 600 effective 1/7.

BRKS Will replace WPX in the S&P 400 effective 1/7.

ELF Will replace BRKS in the S&P 600 effective 1/7.

h Closed %

h 1.9

h Closed

i -1.3

Oil 47.94 i -$0.5

Gold 1897.4 h $4.0

$/Euro 0.815 h 0.00

$/Yen 103.08 i -0.1

Bitcoin 28,861 i -46

10-Yr 0.92 h 0.00

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Page 2: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OS OS

$/Yen OS OS

2-Year OB OB

10-Year N N

Gold N N

Silver OB OB

Copper OB OB

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil OB OB

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas OS N

OS N OB

Ticker Price

SRE 125.82 -1.12 0.90 59.8

AEE 76.97 -1.06 0.80 60.5

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

NRG 36.36 2.60 -0.36 45.8

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

BCOR 9.4 28 -0.6 46.4 -0.4 53.6

CATO 9.2 27 0.0 55.6 0.1 51.9

CUTR 9.0 51 -0.1 49.0 -1.3 52.9

ENDP 8.6 78 0.6 51.3 -0.4 47.4

BNED -11.2 17 2.0 52.9 -2.4 47.1

GCI -9.1 63 -0.3 49.2 -0.6 47.6

BGS -6.6 26 0.7 57.7 4.7 65.4

SCVL -5.4 38 -0.3 36.8 2.3 44.7

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB OB

Cons Discret. OB N

Cons Staples N N

Energy N N

Financials OB N

Health Care N N

Industrials N N

Materials OB N

Technology OB OB

Comm. Svcs N N

Utilities N OS

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

5.4

32.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OBOS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 4.3 % 3.7 %10-Day A/D Line i -27 294# of Overbought Stocks h 164 162# of Oversold Stocks i 27 43

P/E Ratio Trailing h 29.75 28.95 Forward h 26.91 26.24

Dividend Yield i 1.59 % 1.63 %

Net Earnings Revisions 21.5 % 21.5 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield 0 418 418Corporate Bonds 0 107 107

Current One Week Ago

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward2

For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

Page 3: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1100

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

7/6 8/3 8/31 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/21

1100

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

7/6 8/3 8/31 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/21

50-DMA: 1144

200-DMA: 1192

1118

1120

1122

1124

1126

1128

1130

1132

1134

1136

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

1119

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

200-DMA: 1834

50-DMA: 1876

1903

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2900

3025

3150

3275

3400

3525

3650

3775

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

2900

3025

3150

3275

3400

3525

3650

3775

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

3620

3640

3660

3680

3700

3720

3740

3760

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

200-DMA: 3228

50-DMA: 3579

3732

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

200-DMA: 1508

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

50-DMA: 1796

1980

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

50-DMA: 12051

200-DMA: 10489

12200

12300

12400

12500

12600

12700

12800

12900

13000

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

12870

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

200-DMA: 36

44.5

45.0

45.5

46.0

46.5

47.0

47.5

48.0

48.5

49.0

49.5

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

50-DMA: 43

48.36

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward3

DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

8300

8800

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

8300

8800

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

200-DMA: 10244

12250

12350

12450

12550

12650

12750

12850

12950

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

50-DMA: 12188

12459

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

184

7/7 8/4 9/1 9/30 10/28 11/25 12/24

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

184

7/7 8/4 9/1 9/30 10/28 11/25 12/24

200-DMA: 177

171.5

172.0

172.5

173.0

173.5

174.0

174.5

12/9 12/11 12/15 12/17 12/21 12/23 12/28 12/30

50-DMA: 173

172.84

Page 4: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary Overview: The USD is closing out the year at new lows, down 5.8% in 2020, while commodities are fin-

ishing all over the place: ag had its best year since 2010 with 15.8% total returns, precious metals deliv-

ered 26% total returns, and industrial metals offered investors 16.3% total returns...but Energy cost

futures buyers dearly, with –43.3% total returns. Rates stable, and stocks are in the middle of their ses-

sion range with both large and small caps priced to drop 5 bps at the open. Global Economic Scorecard

APAC Markets: The last day of trading in APAC for 2020 was generally positive. Japanese markets were

closed, leaving room for another 1.9% gain for onshore Chinese large caps and a similar move for Kore-

an equities. Those two markets are among the best-performers in the world this year, and both have

strong currency performances as well. Iron ore was little-changed, and copper dropped for a third day

running.

Europe Markets: It’s an underwhelming day for European markets to close the year as only six of 20

groups higher; breadth is 5:1 negative but closed markets in Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, and a few oth-

ers are keeping things especially quiet. Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-

tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is British Air/Iberia conglomerate International Con-

solidated Travel Group (ADR ICAGY) while spirits maker Remy Cointreau (ADR REMYY) is down the

most in 7 months on no news as buyers reject the recent test of 52-week highs in that name. Liquid

rates remain quiet with rates and curves in the middle of their recent range, sovereign spreads at or

near decade lows outside of Italy, and credit indices edging wider in spread on the day. EURUSD is

pausing after a new 52-week high yesterday,

Global Equity Performance YTD: Below we show major equity index performance this year. In USD

terms, the best performance can be found in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq or the Shenzhen com-

posite (onshore China). Koreas, Taiwan, and Japan. European stocks lagged, along with select EM indi-

ces like Brazil and Singapore.

US Calendar: Initial jobless claims and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort data are both due today, but oth-

erwise it should be a very quiet session. That said, over the last couple of years we’ve seen US equity

volumes run about 10% below YTD averages on the last session of the year, which isn’t actually that big

of a drop. To stay on top of all the latest reports, make sure to check out our Interactive Earnings Cal-

endar. You can also follow US and Global data with our Economic Scorecard.

Global Equity Index Performance, YTD In USD

-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Page 5: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

5

Coronavirus: Hospitalizations made another new high, daily

deaths hit a record, and the positive test rate continues to climb

in the wake of Christmas as shown in the charts below. With vac-

cine rollout continuing (more than 700,000 new first doses were

reported to be administered yesterday), it’s worth starting to

talk about how many people are now immune to the virus either

via previous infection or vaccination; we note that these are cer-

tainly under-estimates because many actual cases are missed. As

shown at right, among the top ten states only two (ND, SD) have

a confirmed positive test count + vaccination level have over

10% of their population immune to new COVID infection. For the

US as a whole, the number is 6.9%.

Morning Commentary

Note: population denominator excludes

states not reporting hospitalization data on a

given date.

US National COVID Tracking Statistics As-Of 12/30/2020

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25007 Day Average Tests Per Day ('000s)

7d Avg Positive Test Rate

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Deaths Per Day

7 Day Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

New Confirmed Cases ('000s)

7 Day Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Hospitalization RatePer mm Population

% Population Vaccinated + Previously Positive

13.9313.30

9.92 9.71 9.68 9.669.23 9.20

8.63 8.57

6.85

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

ND SD RI NE WI TN UT MT IN WY US

Page 6: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

6

COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-

ence. We will update it daily on this page.

Morning Commentary

State

AK 1 -1 229 -102 6,438 -1,545 3.6 1.2 -2.0 313.4 -139.6 8,800.4 -2,112.4

AL 27 -29 3,179 -954 6,985 -3,332 45.5 5.4 -5.9 648.3 -194.6 1,424.6 -679.6

AR 37 -6 2,070 -278 9,744 -2,366 21.2 12.4 -1.9 685.9 -92.2 3,228.7 -784.0

AZ 77 -16 5,602 -691 38,792 -7,377 14.4 10.6 -2.2 769.7 -95.0 5,329.5 -1,013.5

CA 239 -18 36,295 -5,561 307,788 -23,493 11.8 6.1 -0.5 918.6 -140.7 7,789.7 -594.6

CO 41 -4 2,051 -775 30,621 -8,881 6.7 7.1 -0.7 356.2 -134.6 5,317.3 -1,542.3

CT 33 0 1,851 5 30,023 -980 6.2 9.1 -0.1 519.2 1.4 8,421.0 -275.0

DC 4 0 219 -13 6,110 -1,262 3.6 5.9 -0.4 310.1 -18.6 8,657.9 -1,787.8

DE 7 1 623 8 8,400 1,296 7.4 7.2 1.5 639.8 8.1 8,626.6 1,330.9

FL 98 0 9,992 -1,114 91,786 -24,113 10.9 4.5 0.0 465.2 -51.8 4,273.5 -1,122.7

GA 47 5 4,875 -228 31,237 -7,082 15.6 4.4 0.5 459.1 -21.5 2,942.0 -667.0

GU 0 0 7 -5 208 -158 3.5 0.0 -1.7 44.0 -32.8 1,257.7 -955.2

HI 0 -1 103 -35 4,555 -235 2.3 0.0 -0.7 73.0 -24.4 3,217.0 -165.7

IA 22 -23 726 -376 1,912 -1,459 38.0 7.0 -7.2 230.2 -119.1 606.1 -462.6

ID 11 -3 847 -378 1,419 -1,295 59.7 6.4 -1.5 474.0 -211.4 794.0 -724.4

IL 138 -14 5,330 -1,451 69,992 -20,405 7.6 10.9 -1.1 420.6 -114.5 5,523.5 -1,610.3

IN 74 -4 4,068 -1,030 35,824 -10,806 11.4 10.9 -0.6 604.3 -153.0 5,321.3 -1,605.2

KS 33 -3 1,821 -339 5,575 -702 32.7 11.5 -1.0 624.9 -116.5 1,913.8 -240.8

KY 22 -7 2,140 -658 12,416 -4,954 17.2 5.0 -1.5 479.1 -147.2 2,779.1 -1,109.0

LA 32 -10 2,471 -156 19,186 -7,504 12.9 6.8 -2.2 531.5 -33.6 4,127.1 -1,614.3

MA 64 11 4,561 8 64,186 -20,166 7.1 9.3 1.6 656.4 1.1 9,236.1 -2,901.8

MD 40 -3 2,261 -38 36,097 -5,127 6.3 6.6 -0.4 374.0 -6.3 5,970.8 -848.0

ME 3 -3 430 -25 6,271 -931 6.9 2.4 -2.2 319.7 -18.3 4,665.5 -692.9

MI 86 -32 2,882 -780 37,575 -7,490 7.7 8.6 -3.2 288.6 -78.1 3,762.5 -750.0

MN 42 -15 1,513 -788 30,618 -8,089 4.9 7.4 -2.7 268.2 -139.8 5,429.1 -1,434.3

MO 34 -31 2,182 -752 14,961 -3,892 14.6 5.5 -5.1 355.6 -122.6 2,437.6 -634.1

MP 0 0 1 0 1 0 100.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 7.8 15.5 7.8

MS 31 -4 1,819 -279 1,819 -7,136 100.0 10.3 -1.2 611.0 -93.7 611.0 -2,397.6

MT 5 -6 397 -157 2,945 -1,361 13.5 4.8 -5.6 371.3 -147.0 2,755.1 -1,273.1

NC 53 -2 5,474 -617 47,500 -10,951 11.5 5.0 -0.2 521.9 -58.8 4,528.9 -1,044.1

ND 6 -1 211 -80 8,357 3,778 2.5 7.5 -1.7 277.3 -104.6 10,965.7 4,957.2

NE 13 1 780 -287 9,144 -2,297 8.5 6.8 0.7 403.0 -148.1 4,726.9 -1,187.3

NH 9 2 676 -50 6,527 -188 10.4 6.7 1.3 497.0 -36.7 4,800.6 -137.9

NJ 69 3 3,875 -420 50,069 -7,364 7.7 7.8 0.4 436.3 -47.2 5,637.0 -829.1

NM 28 0 1,135 -134 13,260 -234 8.6 13.1 -0.1 541.2 -64.1 6,323.7 -111.5

NV 28 -3 1,805 -462 11,940 -2,204 15.1 9.0 -1.1 585.9 -149.9 3,876.5 -715.5

NY 127 -4 11,244 652 174,939 -20,292 6.4 6.5 -0.2 578.0 33.5 8,992.7 -1,043.1

OH 71 -13 6,561 -2,019 40,348 -12,795 16.3 6.0 -1.1 561.3 -172.7 3,451.7 -1,094.6

OK 24 2 2,536 -899 15,160 -4,753 16.7 6.1 0.5 641.0 -227.2 3,831.2 -1,201.1

OR 9 -11 899 -294 16,368 -4,987 5.5 2.2 -2.6 213.0 -69.7 3,880.9 -1,182.4

PA 176 -6 7,168 -1,659 17,601 -4,827 40.7 13.7 -0.5 559.9 -129.6 1,374.9 -377.0

RI 10 -6 840 4 12,434 -1,965 6.8 9.8 -5.5 793.3 3.5 11,737.7 -1,854.6

SC 32 -1 3,035 -124 25,016 -1,276 12.1 6.1 -0.2 589.5 -24.0 4,858.8 -247.8

SD 11 -2 383 -108 905 -454 42.3 12.1 -2.3 432.8 -122.2 1,022.7 -513.4

TN 61 -40 5,653 -2,484 24,558 -16,166 23.0 9.0 -5.9 827.2 -363.5 3,594.0 -2,365.8

TX 170 -45 14,427 -2,304 91,394 -3,113 15.8 5.9 -1.6 497.6 -79.5 3,152.0 -107.3

UT 9 -6 2,035 -391 10,311 -3,518 19.7 2.7 -1.8 634.7 -122.0 3,216.2 -1,097.3

VA 32 -4 3,602 -240 27,291 -8,405 13.2 3.7 -0.5 422.0 -28.1 3,197.4 -984.7

VI 0 0 9 -9 126 -312 6.8 0.0 0.0 81.7 -84.4 1,198.3 -2,977.9

VT 2 1 85 -11 3,702 -1,344 2.3 3.9 1.1 136.4 -17.2 5,932.6 -2,154.6

WA 34 7 1,851 -103 29,695 4,154 6.2 4.5 0.9 243.1 -13.6 3,899.5 545.5

WI 34 -32 2,255 -928 24,198 -6,047 9.3 5.9 -5.4 387.2 -159.4 4,156.0 -1,038.6

WV 18 -4 1,184 -114 10,171 -327 11.6 9.9 -2.5 660.7 -63.6 5,675.2 -182.5

WY 5 -2 210 -126 2,816 -204 7.5 7.9 -3.2 362.6 -218.4 4,865.6 -352.2

US 2,278 -382 178,477 -30,150 1,587,315 -286,937 11.3 6.9 -1.1 537.8 -90.8 4,782.9 -864.6

Week

Change

COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 12/30/2020)Raw Count (7 Day Average) 7 Day +ve

Test Rate

(%)

Per 1mm Population

Deaths

Day/Day

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Week

Change

Tests

Day/Day

Week

Change

Deaths

Day/Day

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Week

Change

Tests

Day/Day

Page 7: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

7

Morning Commentary

% of % of

State Trend Peak Cases State Trend Peak Cases

NY Rising 100.0 11244 RI Rising 63.3 1681

SC Falling 93.3 3035 WA Falling 61.3 3703

WV Falling 90.8 1184 KY Falling 61.2 4281

MA Rising 90.8 4561 IN Falling 59.0 8137

ME Falling 90.5 430 TN Falling 58.7 11305

GA Falling 90.3 4875 OR Falling 58.6 1797

NC Falling 89.9 5474 UT Falling 57.4 4069

VA Falling 88.1 3602 MP Rising 54.5 2

LA Falling 87.7 2471 OH Falling 52.4 13122

AR Falling 87.3 2070 ID Falling 51.2 1694

FL Falling 85.5 9992 MO Falling 46.2 4365

MS Falling 82.8 1819 IL Falling 43.0 10660

CA Falling 82.6 36295 NM Falling 42.5 2270

TX Falling 79.7 14427 HI Falling 40.6 207

MD Falling 77.4 2261 CO Falling 40.5 4103

AL Falling 76.9 3179 MI Falling 34.5 5763

NH Falling 76.5 676 NE Falling 32.6 1559

NJ Falling 76.2 3875 AK Falling 32.6 459

DC Falling 76.1 219 WI Falling 32.0 4509

DE Rising 75.4 623 MT Falling 30.7 794

OK Falling 72.9 2536 VI Falling 26.3 17

VT Falling 72.8 85 SD Falling 26.3 766

AZ Falling 72.1 5602 WY Falling 23.5 420

PA Falling 67.8 7168 MN Falling 21.5 3025

CT Rising 66.4 1851 IA Falling 19.0 1453

KS Falling 65.8 1821 ND Falling 14.5 423

NV Falling 65.3 1805 GU Falling 5.7 15

State State

MP Falling 0.0 100.0 FL Rising 1.3 10.9

MS Rising 76.6 100.0 NH Falling -0.5 10.4

ID Rising 14.6 59.7 WI Falling -1.2 9.3

AL Rising 5.5 45.5 NM Falling -0.8 8.6

SD Rising 6.2 42.3 NE Falling -0.8 8.5

PA Rising 1.4 40.7 NJ Rising 0.3 7.7

IA Rising 5.3 38.0 MI Falling -0.5 7.7

KS Falling -1.8 32.7 IL Rising 0.1 7.6

TN Rising 3.0 23.0 WY Falling -3.7 7.5

AR Rising 1.9 21.2 DE Falling -1.2 7.4

UT Rising 2.2 19.7 MA Rising 1.7 7.1

KY Rising 1.1 17.2 ME Rising 0.5 6.9

OK Falling -0.5 16.7 VI Rising 2.8 6.8

OH Rising 0.1 16.3 RI Rising 0.9 6.8

TX Falling -1.9 15.8 CO Falling -0.5 6.7

GA Rising 2.3 15.6 NY Rising 1.0 6.4

NV Falling -0.9 15.1 MD Rising 0.7 6.3

MO Falling -1.0 14.6 WA Falling -1.4 6.2

AZ Rising 0.8 14.4 CT Rising 0.2 6.2

MT Rising 0.6 13.5 OR Falling -0.1 5.5

VA Rising 2.4 13.2 MN Falling -1.0 4.9

LA Rising 3.0 12.9 DC Rising 0.4 3.6

SC Rising 0.1 12.1 AK Falling -0.6 3.6

CA Falling -0.8 11.8 GU Rising 0.0 3.5

WV Falling -0.7 11.6 ND Falling -3.8 2.5

NC Rising 1.1 11.5 VT Rising 0.4 2.3

IN Rising 0.4 11.4 HI Falling -0.6 2.3

State State

NV Falling -0.6 645 MA Rising 9.2 325

AZ Rising 8.7 622 NC Rising 9.7 318

AL Rising 11.0 574 VA Rising 4.7 317

CA Rising 10.7 542 FL Rising 12.7 293

TN Rising 8.3 501 MD Falling -1.1 290

MS Rising 6.2 492 MI Falling -11.3 276

OK Rising 10.9 484 NE Falling -8.7 267

PA Falling -2.9 466 KS Falling -24.4 263

GA Rising 18.5 464 NH Rising 0.3 225

WV Rising 8.1 445 MT Falling -11.2 209

IN Falling -5.8 437 CO Falling -13.9 200

DE Falling -6.4 436 WY Falling -29.8 195

NJ Falling -3.0 420 IA Falling -5.0 194

MO Falling -6.5 414 WI Falling -13.6 184

TX Rising 13.4 414 UT Falling -12.7 168

NY Rising 15.0 406 MN Falling -13.7 164

RI Falling -3.6 402 WA Rising 55.2 158

AR Rising 5.8 389 ID Falling -18.8 157

SC Rising 19.7 389 OR Falling -1.6 135

NM Falling -2.1 378 ME Falling -5.3 132

OH Falling -6.1 377 ND Falling -18.6 126

KY Rising 1.8 374 AK Falling -32.4 103

LA Rising 2.5 369 GU Falling -28.6 91

DC Falling -5.1 340 HI Rising 20.9 57

IL Falling -7.6 335 VT Rising 13.8 53

SD Falling -13.1 331 VI Falling n/a 0

CT Rising 1.0 327 MP Falling n/a 0

Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Trend

WoW

Change

Positive

Rate

New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory

6 Month COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 12/30/20

6 Month COVID-19 Positive Test Rate By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 12/30/20

Positive Test Rate: Distribution & TrajectoryTrend

WoW

Change

Positive

Rate

6 Month COVID-19 Per Capita Hospitalization By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 12/30/20

Trend

WoW %

Chg

Hospital

Rate Trend

WoW %

Chg

Hospital

RateHospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Hospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory

Page 8: Bearish Bullish Neutral · 2020. 12. 31. · Momentum factors are outperforming while dividend yield fac-tors are lagging on the day. The worst-performer is ritish Air/Iberia conglomerate

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

8

Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

World

Americas Ex US

EU

East Asia

Africa

US

Rest of World

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

World

East Asia

Africa

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Canada

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

China

Japan

South Korea

Singapore


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