BECN Roofing Forecast

7/25/2019 BECN Roofing Forecast

1/46

This fle was prepared or use in FIN237, Security Analysis, Mike Mcay, Sprin! 2"#$%

Students should ocus on the worksheet ta' ()*+N e&enue -ata(% That includes #" y

It also contains i.portant secondary source inor.ation on &olu.e and price trends o

The re.ainin! ta's in the fle are reerence data that is su..ari0ed in the )*+N e&e


2/46

ll ri!hts reser&ed

ears o historical re&enue and price data or )eacon oofn!

residential and non/residential construction .arkets

ue -ata ta'% Students should not need to access that .aterial directly%


3/46

)eacon oofn!

Fiscal 1ear endin! Septe.'er 3"

2"" 2""$ 2""7

Net Sales .illions4 56# 5#,"# 5#,$$

note8 f!ures .ay not .atch due to roundin!esidential .illions4 5732 5$92

Non/esidential .illions4 56 5$"$

+o.ple.entary .illions4 532# 536

price in:ation

residential $%"; "%";

non/residential $%"; "%";

+o.ple.entary $%"; "%";

A&era!e


4/46

2""6 2""9 2"#" 2"## 2"#2 2"#3 2"# 2"#

5#,76 5#,73 5#,$#" 5#,6#7 52," 52,2# 52,327 52,#

576 5697 57$ 56" 5#,"2 5#,#"# 5#,#"9 5#,23$

572 5$"" 5$2# 57#6 576 5623 567$ 5663

53"2 5237 523 529 52$2 53#7 532 539$

note8 this was (2%#; a'o&e trend(%

2%#; 6%"; "%"; %"; #%"; "%"; /2%7; /2%;

2%#; 6%"; "%"; %; 6%; "%"; /#%#; "%";

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5#6%69 5$%$4 5#"%3"4 5#39%27 5#"6%#" 522%7 5$2%99 5#"2%7

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5$6%9 5$6#%$3 576%$ 539% 57%99 5"%7$ 59%72 596%2


5/46

Net Sales .illions4 not

2"" 56#

2""$ 5#,"#

2""7 5#,$$2""6 5#,76

2""9 5#,73

2"#" 5#,$#"

2"## 5#,6#7

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2"#3 52,2#

2"# 52,327

2"# 52,#

2%;

New pri&ately owned housin! units started

All Non/es 55 put in place

ro.


6/46

esidentialNon/esid +o.ple.entary .illiprice residential non/reside+o.ple.entary

5732 56 532# $%"; $%"; $%"; $%";

5$92 5$"$ 536 "%"; "%"; "%"; "%";576 572 53"2 note8 2%#; 2%#; 2%#; 2%#;

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7/46

e=istin! . ac>uired s price ad?usted increa @S ousin ; chan!e iNon/es + Non/es


8/46

Non/es +onstruction ad?usted

52%$#

573%6

5$"%#25$6%9

5$6#%$3

576%$

539%

57%99

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59%72

596%73


9/46

U.S. Census Bureau

Source: Construction Spending

Annual Rate for Nonresidential: U.S. Total

Seasonally Adjusted Total Construction [Millions of Dollar

!eriod: "##" to "#$%

Data &'tracted on: (anuary )* "#$% +$$:"$ a,-

!eriod alue

(an/"##" 7,7"

0e1/"##" 7",9$

Mar/"##" 3,"

Apr/"##" 3,77$

May/"##" #,769

(un/"##" 39,777

(ul/"##" 37,"3

Aug/"##" 3,$96

Sep/"##" 32,""

2ct/"##" 37,7"2

No3/"##" 37,9#

Dec/"##" 39,#$

(an/"##4 ",6#$

0e1/"##4 3$,#9

Mar/"##4 32,9$9

Apr/"##4 33,99$

May/"##4 ",7"

(un/"##4 ,$63

(ul/"##4 37,22

Aug/"##4 3,#$3

Sep/"##4 7,$26

2ct/"##4 ",77

No3/"##4 3,9

Dec/"##4 39,6#

(an/"##5 3,6$7

0e1/"##5 32,73"

Mar/"##5 9,326

Apr/"##5 9,$9"May/"##5 $,2""

(un/"##5 9,726

(ul/"##5 7,#

Aug/"##5 $,2"

Sep/"##5 9,7"$

2ct/"##5 9,293

No3/"##5 $7,""


10/46

Dec/"##5 $,$"9

(an/"##% $,9#

0e1/"##% 72,6

Mar/"##% 7,3

Apr/"##% 77,"37

May/"##% 6,#7"

(un/"##% 63,#7"(ul/"##% 6,26

Aug/"##% 69,$$"

Sep/"##% 9,$67

2ct/"##% 9$,2#

No3/"##% "#,333

Dec/"##% "6,"

(an/"##) #,379

0e1/"##) 2#,#7

Mar/"##) 3",7#2

Apr/"##) 3$,396May/"##) ",32

(un/"##) ",9"9

(ul/"##) 3,9"$

Aug/"##) ,7#9

Sep/"##) $,"""

2ct/"##) ,#$2

No3/"##) $$,#

Dec/"##) 63,$$$

(an/"##6 93,62#

0e1/"##6 $"",773

Mar/"##6 $##,9$9

Apr/"##6 $#9,6#

May/"##6 $","62

(un/"##6 $9,967

(ul/"##6 $#,9$2

Aug/"##6 $7",2$"

Sep/"##6 $6,6

2ct/"##6 $97,$

No3/"##6 $93,7$

Dec/"##6 $9#,3

(an/"##7 7"#,$

0e1/"##7 7"3,

Mar/"##7 7",$22

Apr/"##7 7"6,76

May/"##7 7#2,3"7

(un/"##7 7"6,2"3

(ul/"##7 7#,3$9

Aug/"##7 7"9,$3#


11/46

Sep/"##7 7##,376

2ct/"##7 7#9,9

No3/"##7 7#,39"

Dec/"##7 $96,#2#

(an/"##8 $63,"2

0e1/"##8 $9,

Mar/"##8 7"#,2Apr/"##8 $6#,

May/"##8 $7$,""2

(un/"##8 $$7,$2$

(ul/"##8 $6,9

Aug/"##8 $",$7#

Sep/"##8 $2,67

2ct/"##8 $"6,##

No3/"##8 93,6#$

Dec/"##8 76,227

(an/"#$# ,630e1/"#$# 6,627

Mar/"#$# ,$33

Apr/"#$# $3,677

May/"#$# $3,233

(un/"#$# $,33#

(ul/"#$# ,969

Aug/"#$# 2,6#

Sep/"#$# 6,##

2ct/"#$# 3,797

No3/"#$# 2,23

Dec/"#$# ",996

(an/"#$$ "$,79#

0e1/"#$$ "6,97$

Mar/"#$$ #6,7"7

Apr/"#$$ #7,#"

May/"#$$ 2,6$

(un/"#$$ ,29

(ul/"#$$ 36,76#

Aug/"#$$ 6,36

Sep/"#$$ #,"6$

2ct/"#$$ 6,2#

No3/"#$$ 3,$3

Dec/"#$$ $#,$

(an/"#$" $7,2#

0e1/"#$" $6,#$#

Mar/"#$" 7#,$6

Apr/"#$" 73,36$

May/"#$" 6,#6


12/46

(un/"#$" 66,$96

(ul/"#$" 63,6"#

Aug/"#$" 77,33

Sep/"#$" 7,"6#

2ct/"#$" 7,$"9

No3/"#$" $7,"96

Dec/"#$" $,"63(an/"#$4 $,93

0e1/"#$4 3,23

Mar/"#$4 2,72

Apr/"#$4 ,23

May/"#$4 $",2

(un/"#$4 $2,6"

(ul/"#$4 $6,72

Aug/"#$4 $9,9

Sep/"#$4 7#,9#7

2ct/"#$4 6$,$3No3/"#$4 92,376

Dec/"#$4 9#,67$

(an/"#$5 6,7"

0e1/"#$5 6,7

Mar/"#$5 6,#9#

Apr/"#$5 9,7

May/"#$5 $#",999

(un/"#$5 $"#,#79

(ul/"#$5 $",7#9

Aug/"#$5 $"9,$6

Sep/"#$5 $#,3#

2ct/"#$5 $22,9$7

No3/"#$5 $#$,9$

Dec/"#$5 $2679

(an/"#$% $22#6

0e1/"#$% $2$6#

Mar/"#$% $27#

Apr/"#$% $7#29

May/"#$% $66$66

(un/"#$% $9#7$#

(ul/"#$% $9#$77

Aug/"#$% $9""

Sep/"#$% $9###

2ct/"#$% $93727

No3/"#$% $66"9$

Dec/"#$% NA

note8 !et the (re&ised data( ro. the (&alue o construction put in place( data


13/46

https8CCwww%census%!o&CconstructionCc3"Cc3"inde=%ht.l


14/46


15/46


16/46


17/46


18/46


19/46

new data old data

2"" #" 6%2" #3%#

2"" ## 6%"9 #2%9

2"" #2 63%$ #2%#

2"" # 6%$ #3%9

2"" 2 6%3$ #%2

2"" 3 6$%3 #72"" 6$%73 #7%7

2"" 6$%7 #7%

2"" $ 67%#7 #6%

2"" 7 67%69 #9%6

2"" 6 66%36 #$"%7

2"" 9 69%7$ #$3%2

2"" #" 9#%"2 #$%

2"" ## 69%6 #$2%7

2"" #2 69%6# #$3%3

2""$ # 9"%9# #$%32""$ 2 9"%6" #$%#

2""$ 3 9#%$3 #$$%$

2""$ 93%"" #$9%#

2""$ 93%63 #7"%$

2""$ $ 9% #7#%9

2""$ 7 9%96 #72%7

2""$ 6 9%37 #73%

2""$ 9 93%9 #7"%6

2""$ #" 93%26 #$9%$

2""$ ## 93%22 #$9%

2""$ #2 93% #$9%9

2""7 # 93%33 #$9%7

2""7 2 93%66 #7"%7

2""7 3 9%93 #72%$

2""7 9%97 #7%

2""7 9$%7 #7%9

2""7 $ 9$%6 #7$%#

2""7 7 97%$ #77%2

2""7 6 9$%$9 #7%6

2""7 9 9$%9$ #7$%3

2""7 #" 9$%9$ #7$%3

2""7 ## 96%39 #76%9

2""7 #2 97%9 #76%#

2""6 # 96%$# #79%3

2""6 2 99%#$ #6"%3

2""6 3 #"#%# #63%9

2""6 #"2%$6 #6$%7

2""6 #"%99 #9"%9


20/46

2""6 $ #"$%6# #9%2

2""6 7 #"6%9 #96%#

2""6 6 #"6%$ #97%2

2""6 9 #"6%9 #96

2""6 #" #"%67 #92%

2""6 ## #"2%7 #6$%

2""6 #2 #""%# #622""9 # #""%# #62

2""9 2 99%" #6"%#

2""9 3 96%39 #76%9

2""9 96%$# #79%3

2""9 99%" #6"%#

D


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D


22/46

2"# ."6 ##"%

2"# ."9 ##"%

Non esidential )uildin! -ata Series

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M"# #3$%2N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M"2 #3$%$

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N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M" #3$%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M"$ #37%"

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M"7 #37%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M"6 #37%6

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M"9 #36%6

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M#" #36%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M## #39%2N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M#2 #39%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""3 M#3 #37%$

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"# #"%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"2 #2%"

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"3 #%"

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M" #$%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M" #6%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"$ #6%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"7 #9%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"6 #"%6

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"9 ##%7

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M#" #3%# #3%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M## #2%9 #2%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M#2 #2%# #2%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M#3 #6%3 #6%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"# #3%9 #3%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"2 #%2 #%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"3 #7%" #7

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M" #7%7 #7%7

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M" #7% #7%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"$ #6% #6%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"7 #9%6 #9%6

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"6 #$"%7 #$"%7

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M"9 #$3%2 #$3%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M#" #$% #$%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M## #$2%7 #$2%7

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M#2 #$3%3 #$3%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2"" M#3 #9%$ #9%$


23/46

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M"# #$%3 #$%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M"2 #$%# #$%#

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N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M" #$9%# #$9%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M" #7"%$ #7"%$

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M"$ #7#%9 #7#%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M"7 #72%7 #72%7N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M"6 #73% #73%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M"9 #7"%6 #7"%6

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M#" #$9%$ #$9%$

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M## #$9% #$9%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M#2 #$9%9 #$9%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""$ M#3 #$9%$ #$9%$

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N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M" #7% #7%N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M" #7%9 #7%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M"$ #7$%# #7$%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M"7 #77%2 #77%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M"6 #7%6 #7%6

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M"9 #7$%3 #7$%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M#" #7$%3 #7$%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M## #76%9 #76%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M#2 #76%# #76%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""7 M#3 #7%2 #7%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"# #79%3 #79%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"2 #6"%3 #6"%3

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"3 #63%9 #63%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M" #6$%7 #6$%7

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M" #9"%9 #9"%9

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"$ #9%2 #9%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"7 #96%# #96%#

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"6 #97%2 #97%2

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M"9 #96%" #96

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M#" #92% #92%

N-@))E-//))E-// 2""6 M## #6$% #6$%

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24/46

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25/46


26/46

"%"9$

"%"93

"%3$732

"%3$6

"%39#"%3"9

"%3"2

"%29"7

"%3"$7

"%227$

"%#93$3

"%#$3

"%#9#"6


27/46


28/46


29/46


30/46


31/46

Exhibit 1

Net Sales .illions4 *=istin! Market Increase )*+N Sales

2"" 56# 56#

2""$ 5#,"# 5### 59$2

2""7 5#,$$ 594 5#,2

2""6 5#,76 5#9 5#,$$

2""9 5#,73 5#4 5#,732"#" 5#,$#" 5#"4 5#,6

2"## 5#,6#7 5#7 5#,77

2"#2 52," 5##3 5#,93"

2"#3 52,2# 523 52,"$7

2"# 52,327 5$2 52,3"3

2"# 52,# 5#"2 52,29

2"#$

2"#7

2""$

/2"%"";

/#"%"";

"%"";

#"%"";

2"%"";

3"%"";

"%"";

"%"";

=4

H

Organ

Organicc Growth Rate


32/46


33/46


34/46

e/oofn! -e.and Benerated ousin! Starts Browth ate

5#2#%"

5337%" /$%9;

52"2%" /26%72;

5#7%" /3%";

5376%"" /"%;523%"" /#%7";

5#"6%"" /#%6;

5$6%"" 22%$$;

5337%" 2#%";

5376%"" #"%"";

5"%"" 9%7;


35/46

Non/es% Browth ate e/oofn! Browth 'y disasters

3%77; #"2%#7;

#2%6; /#%"6;

%3$; /#%3#;

/"%$3; 7$%73;/#$%39; /%#6;

/$%96; /6#%"9;

3%3$; #79%#6;

/3%#; /$%23;

3%; ##%33;

$%7; 3%$7;


36/46

Exhibit 2

S@MMA1 @Tuare "%$39333

Ad?usted S>uare "%93"3"#$Standard *rror "%"966996

'ser&ations #"

ANJA

df SS

e!ression 3 "%"97797#7$

esidual $ "%"#22#27#

Total 9 "%#29#9$$

Coecients Standard ErrorIntercept "%#""6#2#$ "%"3237627

ousin! Starts Browth ate /"%"#92""6 "%#$72"$#

Non es% Browth ate #%3#6#2227 "%#963$3

e/oofn! Browth ate 'y disasters /"%"239#9$296 "%"#"2#229

*SI-@AE @T


37/46

MS F Signicance F

"%"3299#72 3%639 "%"672""2

"%""9#67"2#2

t Stat P-value Lower !" #$$er !" Lower !%&"3%#"792#92 "%"2"9"3 "%"2#27#22 "%#6"#677#69 "%"2#27#22

/"%3$677 "%733"# /"%"337#"$ "%3"2#"7"9 /"%"337#"$

3%#32629$7 "%"#996 "%292#"#737 2%396"7"#7 "%292#"#737

/"%63"99"77 "%6#"$ /"%#229$6"3 "%"7$$2"7 /"%#229$6"3

Standard Residuals"%7"$2$#7"7$

#%2"9#9#

/#%99##6#977

"%3$#$$"$3

/"%$633$$

#%"#62#93

"%63"6366

"%33##792

/"%2336#63

/#%927$362#


38/46

#$$er !%&""%#6"#677#69

"%3"2#"7"9

2%396"7"#7

"%"7$$2"7


39/46

Exhibit 3

+o..odity


40/46

S@MMA1 @T


41/46

SS MS F Signicance F

"%""#$392 "%"""762 "%73#2""# "%"$7"

"%""72$6"7 "%""#"36

"%""6632

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower !" #$$er !""%"#9$9636 "%26$69 "%762326797 /"%""39# "%"#$2373

"%"793#2 /"%2#$7 "%$#799"79$9 /"%#32"$2#7 "%"63#3$3

"%69""$99"9 #%#$36"7 "%262$3#6$2 /#%"$66##$$$7 3%#""#2"2

Residuals dard Residuals

"%"29""9$6 #%"2"629/"%""762$ /#%976"#

"%"2"222""7$ "%7##$

"%"379$#66 #%333"3

/"%"#73$3 /"%6"67

"%"#69#$62$ "%$$$7#

"%"#93$3399 "%$6#36

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Date post:	24-Feb-2018
Category:	Documents
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