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BEHAVIORAL BIASESBOOKLET
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This booklet is meant to serve as a reference during the behavioral research process. It is a list of relevant behavioral biases. The definitions are succinct and do not include lengthy examples or case studies. For biases that are new to the reader, other sources should be utilized to obtain more detailed explanations.
The biases are grouped into six categories & organized alphabetically to help the reader easily find the appropriate biases. The six categories include social biases, memory biases, decision-making biases, probability / belief biases, time inconsistency biases, & scarcity.
© GRID Impact
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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SOCIAL BIASES............................................................4
MEMORY BIASES.........................................................8
DECISION-MAKING BIASES......................................12
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES..................................18
TIME INCONSISTENCY BIASES................................26
SCARCITY..................................................................30
INDEX........................................................................34
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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SOCIAL BIASES
SOCIAL BIASESSOCIAL BIASES5x
Halo Effect
The tendency for a person's positive or negative traits to "spill over" from one area of their personality to another in others' perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype).
Identity
Actor-Observer
Bias
People have multiple identities that have different preferences that lead to different choices.
The tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior.
Reciprocity People respond to positive action with another positive action, becoming friendlier and more cooperative.
Projection Bias
The tendency to unconsciously assume that others share the same or similar thoughts, beliefs, values, or positions.
SOCIAL BIASES 6
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
Social Proof
Halo Effect
Social Norms
SuperiorityBias
Status QuoBias
Overestimating one's desirable qualities, and underestimating undesirable qualities, relative to other people. (Also known “better-than-average effect” or Dunning-Kruger effect)
The tendency to defend the status quo. Existing social, economic, and political arrangements tend to be preferred, and alternatives disparaged sometimes even at the expense of self or group-interest.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
The tendency to engage in behaviors that elicit results, which will (consciously or not) confirm existing attitudes.
Behaviors and actions that are driven by actual or perceived behavior of a peer group.
Individuals look to others to see how to behave, especially in ambiguous situations, in crises, and when others are experts.
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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MEMORY BIASES
MEMORY BIASES9x
Consistency Bias
Hindsight Bias
Incorrectly remembering one's past attitudes and behavior as resembling present attitudes and behavior.
Filtering memory of past events through present knowledge, so that those events look more predictable than they actually were; also known as the “I-knew-it-all-along effect.”
Outcome Bias
Rosy Retrospection
Self-Serving Bias
The tendency for individuals to rate past events more positively than they had actually rated them when the event occurred.
Perceiving oneself responsible for desirable outcomes but not responsible for undesirable ones.
The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of by the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
MEMORY BIASESMEMORY BIASES 10
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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DECISION-MAKING BIASES
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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DECISION-MAKING BIASES
Multiple options may make it more difficult for consum-ers to select a single option.
DECISION-MAKING BIASES13x
Base Rate Fallacy Ignoring available statistical data in favor of
particulars.
Channel Factors Small but critical factors that facilitate or create
barriers for behavior.
Choice Conflict
Choice Overload
Confirmation Bias
Even with just 2 choices, a person can become paralyzed from making a choice.
Multiple options may make it more difficult for consumers to select a single option.
The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
DECISION-MAKING BIASES 14
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
DéformationProfessionnelle
The tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one's own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.
Expectation Bias
Illusion of ControlThe tendency for human beings to believe they can
control or at least influence, outcomes that they clearly cannot.
The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disregard or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.
FramingUsing an approach or description of the situation or issue that is too narrow. Also, drawing different conclusions based on how data is presented.
Denomination Effect
The tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).
DECISION-MAKING BIASESDECISION-MAKING BIASES
Loss Aversion People strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring
gains.
Not Invented
Here
Mental Accounting
The tendency for people to separate their money into separate accounts based on a variety of subjective criteria, like the source of the money and intent for each account
The tendency to ignore that a product or solution already exists, because its source is seen as an "enemy" or as "inferior".
Normalcy Bias The refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which
has never happened before.
15
Money Illusion
The tendency of people to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.
Loss Aversion People strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring
gains.
DECISION-MAKING BIASES
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
16
Post-Purchase
RationalizationThe tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
Priming EffectPriming is an implicit memory effect in which exposure
to one stimulus influences a response to another stimulus.
Semmelweis ReflexThe tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts
an established paradigm.
Zero-Risk BiasPreference for reducing a small risk to zero over a
greater reduction in a larger risk.
SalienceOur attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us. Salience of an object or availability of an idea/concept is unequal to the probability of it orfrequency of it.
17
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASESPROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES19x
Ambiguity Effect
Authority Bias
Anchoring Effect
The tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown".
The tendency to value an ambiguous stimulus (e.g., an art performance) according to the opinion of someone who is seen as an authority on the topic.
The tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (also called “insufficient adjustment”).
Availability Cascade
Availability Bias
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood events with greater “availability” in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they might be.
A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES 20
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
Capability Bias
The tendency to believe that the closer average performance is to a target, the tighter the distribution of the data set will be.
Clustering Illusion
BeliefBias
Disposition Effect
Conjunction Fallacy
The tendency to see patterns where actually none exist. Gilovich example: "OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO"
An effect where someone's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion.
The tendency to sell assets that have increased in value but hold assets that have decreased in value.
The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASESPROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES21x
Gambler’s Fallacy
Illusory Correlation
Neglect of Prior Base
Rates EffectThe tendency to neglect known odds when reevaluating odds in light of weak evidence.
The tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. i.e. "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."
Beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect.
Disregard of regression toward the
mean
Hawthorne Effect
The tendency to expect extreme performance to continue.
The tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES 22
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
Ostrich EffectIgnoring an obvious (negative) situation.
Positive Outcome
Bias
Overconfidence Effect
Observer Expectancy
Bias
The tendency to overestimate the probability of good things happening to them (similar to wishful thinking, optimism bias, and valence effect).
Excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of question, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.
When a researcher expects a given result and there-fore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (similar to subject-expectancy effect).
Neglect of ProbabilityThe tendency to completely disregard probability
when making a decision under uncertainty.
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES23x
Stereotyping
Subadditivity Effect
Expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.
The tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the sum of the probabilities of the parts.
Recency Effect The tendency to weigh recent events more than
earlier events.
Selection Bias A distortion of evidence or data that arises from the
way that the data are collected.
Primacy Effect The tendency to weigh initial events more than
subsequent events.
PROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASESPROBABILITY / BELIEF BIASES 24
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
Subjective ValidationThe perception that something is true if a subject's
belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.
Survivorship Bias
The tendency to concentrate on the people or things that "survived" some process and ignoring those that didn't, or arguing that a strategy is effective given the winners, while ignoring the large amount of losers.
Well Traveled
Road EffectUnderestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and over-estimate the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes.
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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TIME INCONSISTENCY BIASES
TIME INCONSISTENCY BIASES27
Present Bias Weighing present concerns more than future ones.
Procrastination Individuals postpone making decisions or taking actions (often repeatedly) because they often weigh present/ immediate decisions/ actions more than future ones.
Planning Fallacy The tendency to underestimate task-completion times
(often repeatedly and even when it's important).
Hyperbolic Discounting
Greatly discounting future costs or benefits relative to immediate costs or benefits. Our perception that the value of rewards diminishes drastically over time.
IntentionAction Gap
The disconnect between what a person wants to do and what they actually do.
TIME INCONSISTENCY BIASESTIME INCONSISTENCY BIASES 28
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
Halo Effect
WillPowerThe tendency to engage in behaviors that elicit results,
which will (consciously or not) confirm existing attitudes.
The ability to restrain emotions and impulses; choosing to stick to one’s plans. It can be depleted with use but increased over time.
Self Control
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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SCARCITY
SCARCITY31x
Limited Attention Human beings have a finite amount of attention.
When split and stretched, performance can suffer.
Tunneling Devoting a great deal of bandwidth to a single scarce resource, while neglecting other things to make space for the focus.
SCARCITY 32
BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
Halo Effect
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES BOOKLET
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INDEX
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AActor-Observer Bias..............................................Ambiguity Effect.................................................Anchoring Effect.................................................Authority Bias......................................................Availibility Bias....................................................Availibility Cascade.............................................
BBase Rate Fallacy.................................................Belief Bias...........................................................
CCapability Bias....................................................Channel Factors..................................................Choice Conflict...................................................Choice Overload.................................................Clustering Illusion...............................................Conjunction Fallacy............................................Consistency Bias...................................................Confirmation Bias...............................................
DDéformation Professionnelle..................................Denomination Effect...............................................Disposition Effect...............................................Disregard of Regression Toward the Mean........
EExpectation Bias.....................................................
FFraming................................................................
GGambler’s Fallacy....................................................
HHalo Effect..............................................................................Hawthorne Effect...................................................Hindsight Bias.........................................................Hyperbolic Discounting..........................................
51919191919
1320
2013131320209
13
14142021
14
14
21
5215
27
COGNITIVE BIASES REFERENCE BOOK
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IIdentity..................................................................Illusion of Control...............................................Illusory Correlation..............................................
51921
LLimited Attention................................................Loss Aversion......................................................
MMental Accounting..............................................Money Illusion.....................................................
NNeglect of Prior Base Rates Effect.......................Neglect of Probability.............................................Normalcy Bias.....................................................Not Invented Here..............................................
OObserver Expectancy Bias.......................................Ostrich Effect..........................................................Outcome Bias..........................................................Overconfidence Bias...............................................
PPlanning Fallacy.....................................................Positive Outcome Bias.............................................Post Purchase Rationalization....................................Primacy Effect.........................................................Priming Effect..........................................................Present Bias............................................................Procrastination........................................................Projection Bias..........................................................
RRecency Effect........................................................
Rosy Retrospection...............................................
3115
1515
21222021
22229
22
272216231627275
23
9Reciprocity............................................................ 5
Intention Action Gap...........................................27
37
S
Selection Bias......................................................Self Control.........................................................Self Fulfilling Prophecy..........................................Self Serving Bias....................................................Semmelweis Reflex..............................................Social Norms.........................................................Social Proof...........................................................Status Quo Bias.....................................................Stereotyping........................................................Superiority Bias...................................................Subadditivity Effect.............................................Subjective Validation...........................................Survivorship Bias.................................................
TTunneling.............................................................
WWell Traveled Road Effect...................................Will Power...........................................................
ZZero Risk Bias........................................................
232869
16666
1923232324
31
2428
16
Salience...............................................................16
COGNITIVE BIASES REFERENCE BOOK
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BEHAVIORAL BIASESBOOKLET