Belarus: country focus
ETF’s Statistics Team
Torino Process Dissemination Event | 03.12.2019 | RIPO, Minsk
FOCUS AREAS
2
• Demographics and Ageing
• Economy and Employment
• Education and Human capital
CHALLENGING POPULATION DYNAMICS
3
Source: Belstat & WDI
20.8%14.9%
74.7%
78.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
9.00
9.10
9.20
9.30
9.40
9.50
9.60
9.70
9.80
9.90
10.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total (in millions) Youth (% of total) Urban (% of total)
Fig 1: Total Population, Youth & Urban Shares in Belarus (2010-2018)
REBOUNDING GROWTH RATES…
4
Source: Belstat
-3.8
-2.5
2.53.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Fig 2: GDP growth rates in Belarus (2015-2018)
…WITH A DOMINANT SERVICE SECTOR
5
Source: % UNESCO
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Agriculture Industry Services
Fig 3: Gross value added in economic sectors in Belarus (2015-2018)
TRANSFORMATIONS IN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT
6
Source: Belstat
Fig 4: Employment (%) by broad economic sectors in Belarus (2010-2018)
10.4% 9.3%
34.2%29.8%
55.4%60.9%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Agriculture Industry Services
INCREASING EMPLOYMENT RATES…
7
Source: Belstat; Administrative data
Fig 5: Employment (%) in Belarus (2010-2018)
80.7%
83.1%
75.5%
82.2%
86.3%
84%
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Male Female
ENHANCED LABOUR FORCE…
8
Source: Belstat
Fig 6: Labour force (aged 15+) by education level (2018)
1.5
18.7
44.2
47.2
54.3
34.1
BY EU
at most compulsory (ISCED 0-2) upper/post-secondary (ISCED 3-4) tertiary (ISCED 5-8)
…DUE TO HIGH EDUCATION OUTCOME
9
Source: Belstat
Fig 7: Tertiary education attainment (% 30-34 years old) in Belarus & EU (2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
BY EU
Total Men Women
…AS A RESULT OF HIGH SPENDING IN EDUCATION
10
Source: Belstat
Fig 8: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2018)
4.9%
17.9%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of GDP % of total public expenditure
GOOD EDUCATION & LABOUR OUTCOMES…
11
Source: Belstat
Fig 9: Early leavers from education (% 18-24) in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 10: Not in employment, education or training
(NEETs - % aged 15-24) in Belarus & EU (2018)
0
5
10
15
BY EU
Total Men Women
0
5
10
15
BY EU
Total Men Women
Source: Belstat
HIGH BUT DECREASING NUMBER OF VET STUDENTS…
12
Fig 11: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 12: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in (2010-2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
BY EU
Total Men Women
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total
Male
Female
-27.3%
-26.7%
-28.1%
Source: Belstat Source: Belstat
POVERTY, INEQUALITY & HUMAN CAPITAL
13Fig 13: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2011-2017)
7.35.9
27.225.4
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Poverty (% pop) GINI Human Development Index
Poverty
Inequality
HDI
Source: Belstat for poverty; WDI for Gini and HDI
MAIN MESSAGES
14
Demographics and Ageing:
• Declining youth population as a result of unfavourable population trends
Economy and Employment
• Rebounding economy in search of sustainable growth rates
• Increasing employment rates in a mainly industry and service based economy
Education and Human capital
• Favourable education outcomes leading to enhanced human capital
• High but decreasing numbers of VET students