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Belgrad nov. 2013
SEECOF-10Forecasts for DJF
Christian Viel
Météo-France
2
Outline
Ocean analysis
Ocean forecasts
General Circulation forecasts
Impacts (T, RR)
Summary
3
Oceanicanalysis
SSTOct. 2013
Ocean analysis
From MERCATOR, reference GLORYS 1992-2009
4
Ocean analysisAugust September October
Equatorial PacificEquatorial AtlanticEquatorial Indian
Kelvin waves
time
5
Weak SST anomalies in equatorial regions :
– Atlantic : ~neutral
– Pacific : weak positive anomaly in the western part, becoming neutral in the eastern part (warming) ENSO phase : neutral
– Indian : west neutral, east positive IOD still negative (but now ~0)
Ocean analysis
Niño3.4
6
Outline
Ocean analysis
Ocean forecasts
General Circulation forecasts
Impacts (T, RR)
Summary
7
Ocean forecasts
SST forecasts
Météo France
ECMWF
8
Niño3.4
Ocean forecasts – Central Pacific
9
Ocean forecasts - Atlantic
Northern tropical Atlantic (TNA) :
10
Tropics : Pacific : weak positive anomaly around the Warm Pool; ENSO neutral Indian : IOD ~0 Atlantic : warmer than normal conditions in Northern sub-tropics
Ocean forecasts
11
Ocean forecasts
12
NAO- NAO+
Atlantic ridge
Blocking
SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model)
Lower Tercile
Upper Tercile
UpperTercile
Lower Tercile
(significance threshold 70 %)
Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes
13
Reg
ime
et m
ean
TT
,RR
in
win
ter
14
Outline
Ocean analysis
Ocean forecasts
General Circulation forecasts
Impacts (T, RR)
Summary
15
Tropical response and forcing - DJF
Shaded areas : velocity potential anomalies (divergent circulation anomalies)
green <-> upward motion anomaly
pink <-> downward motion anomaly
Isolines : stream function anomalies (rotational circulation
anomalies)
blue lines <-> cyclonic (in NH)
red lines <-> anticyclonic (in NH)
Upper troposphere circulation fields (200 hPa)
++
+ -
--
16
Mid-Latitude Response - DJF
17
Mid-Latitude Response - DJF
18
Relatively good consistency in tropical response to SST forcing But no trace of teleconnection from tropics to NH mid-latitude
limited predictability related to tropical forcing
General Circulation forecasts - DJF
19
Outline
Ocean analysis
Ocean forecasts
General Circulation forecasts
Impacts (T, RR)
Summary
21
Temperature probabilities : DJF
Skill (1987-2001)
22
Precipitation probabilities : DJF
Skill (1987-2001)
Skill (1987-2001)
outer-quintile categories
24
Summary for DJF
- close to normal conditions in equatorial waveguides , despite ofwarming of SST anomalies over the central part of Equatorial Pacific ENSO : neutral conditions
- limited predictability over mid-latitudes (Europe)
- some signal (for T) over the Mediterranean basin : slightly enhanced probabilities of warmer than normal conditions
25
Temperature and rainfall scenarios for Europe : DJF
Skill (1987-2001)
T
MODELS
CEPabove
normal
above
normal
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
MFabove
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
Met Officeno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
CPC normalabove
normal
no
privileged
no
privileged
above
normal
JMA
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
synthesisno
privileged
above
normal
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
LC-MMEabove
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
Eurosipabove
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
no privileged scenario
above normal
Northern Europe Southern Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe SEE Region
privileged scenario by
RCC-LRF node
no privileged scenario
above normalno privileged
scenario
MODELS
CEPno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
MFAbove
normal
no
privileged
Above
normal
Above
normal
Above
normal
Met Officeno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
CPCAbove
normal
no
privileged
no
privileged
JMA
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
synthesisno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
LC-MMEno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
Eurosipno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
privileged scenario by
RCC-LRF node
no privileged scenario
no privileged scenario
no privileged scenario
no privileged scenario
no privileged scenario
Northern Europe Southern Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe SEE Region
RR
http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr
Not yet available Not yet available
26
27
NAO- NAO+
Atlantic ridge
Blocking
SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model)
Lower Tercile
Upper Tercile
UpperTercile
Lower Tercile
(significance threshold 70 %)
Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes
28
Reg
ime
et m
ean
TT
,RR
in
win
ter