Belmont Housing Analysis:Belmont Housing Analysis:Presentation 1:Presentation 1:
Housing Market TrendsHousing Market Trends
March 2007March 2007Russ ThibeaultRuss Thibeault
Applied Economic ResearchApplied Economic Research
Study Referenced in Town Master Study Referenced in Town Master PlanPlan
Goal:Goal:To provide guiding principles and strategies To provide guiding principles and strategies for managing present and future housing for managing present and future housing needs. Create a range of housing needs. Create a range of housing opportunities and choices.opportunities and choices.
Gather information from state and federal statistics Gather information from state and federal statistics on housing needs in Belmont, pay of r a Housing on housing needs in Belmont, pay of r a Housing Study, if needed.Study, if needed.
Source: Belmont Master Plan (2002) page 9.7Source: Belmont Master Plan (2002) page 9.7
Why is This ImportantWhy is This ImportantHousing is townHousing is town’’s largest source of property tax s largest source of property tax revenuerevenueHousing generates demand for the majority of Housing generates demand for the majority of town servicestown servicesHousing is the largest investment of most Housing is the largest investment of most householdshouseholdsHousing consumes the largest portion of Housing consumes the largest portion of developed landdeveloped landHousing affordability affects the town and Housing affordability affects the town and regional economy and labor forceregional economy and labor forceRange of housing available affects townRange of housing available affects town’’s s economic compositioneconomic compositionHOUSING IS WHERE WE LIVE!HOUSING IS WHERE WE LIVE!
Study OutlineStudy Outline
Task 1: Housing Market TrendsTask 1: Housing Market TrendsTask 2: Housing AffordabilityTask 2: Housing AffordabilityTask 3: Projected Housing DemandTask 3: Projected Housing DemandTask 4: Policy ImplicationsTask 4: Policy Implications
Regional Population Has Been Regional Population Has Been Growing, Now at 113,000Growing, Now at 113,000
Lakes Region Population
-20,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
Source: Lakes Region Planning Commission
TownTown’’s Population Has Increased s Population Has Increased Sharply, Nearly Tripling Since 1970Sharply, Nearly Tripling Since 1970
Belmont Population
2,493
4,026
5,796
6,7167,206
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Source: US Census and NH OEP
Rising Share of CountyRising Share of County’’s Population s Population Through 1990, Stable Share Since ThenThrough 1990, Stable Share Since Then
Belmont Share of County's Population
7.7%
9.4%
11.8% 11.9% 11.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Jobs Growing Generally Faster Than HousingJobs Growing Generally Faster Than Housing
Employment vs. Housing UnitsYear Over Year Percent Change
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-2000
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
Total Housing Units Total Private Emp
Some Recent ParametersSome Recent Parameters
Belmont added more people than any other Belmont added more people than any other Lakes Region community in the 1980s; was sixth Lakes Region community in the 1980s; was sixth fastest growing in the 1990sfastest growing in the 1990sBelmont attracts young familiesBelmont attracts young families——had the sixth had the sixth lowest median age in the Lakes Region in 2000.lowest median age in the Lakes Region in 2000.Belmont had the fourth highest population per Belmont had the fourth highest population per square mile in the region in 2000.square mile in the region in 2000.BelmontBelmont’’s proportion of seasonal housing (11%) s proportion of seasonal housing (11%) was among the fourth lowest in the region in was among the fourth lowest in the region in 2000.2000.
Averaging 40 New Housing Units Averaging 40 New Housing Units Per Year RecentlyPer Year Recently
New Housing Units Authorized By Permit In Belmont
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Sour
ce: N
H O
EP
Averaging Just Under 10% of Averaging Just Under 10% of County Total New Units Since 2000County Total New Units Since 2000
Belmont Share of Belknap County's New Authorized Units
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
229 New Lots Approved Since 2000229 New Lots Approved Since 2000
New Subdivision Lots Approved
13
30
3 8
61
1425
17
0
103
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2000: 2000: BriarcrestBriarcrest, , StoningtonStonington2004: Interim Growth 2004: Interim Growth Ordinance (no Ordinance (no approvals)approvals)2005: Amily, BBE, 2005: Amily, BBE, Sun LakeSun Lake
Net of 214 Lots Created Since 2000 Net of 214 Lots Created Since 2000 (after removing expired subdivision (after removing expired subdivision
approvals)approvals)Inventory Change: Undeveloped Lots
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
(New Lots Approved Minus Merged Lots)
Housing Inventory Has Increased Housing Inventory Has Increased More in Past Five Years Than In More in Past Five Years Than In
Previous 10 YearsPrevious 10 Years
Belmont Housing Inventory
1990 2000 2005Change-
1990-2000Change
2000-2005Total Units 2,869 3,113 3,387 244 274 Occupied Units 2,146 2,641 3,000 495 359 Vacant Units 723 472 387 (251) (85)
Vacant Seasonal 525 351 300 (174) (51) Vacant Year-Round 198 121 87 (77) (34)
Belmont Inventory Increase Among Belmont Inventory Increase Among All Unit TypesAll Unit Types
Belmont Housing Inventory
1990 2000 2005 Number PercentTotal Units 2,869 3,113 3,387 244 9%Single Family Units 1,635 1,798 1,992 163 10%Multi-family Units 441 453 486 12 3%Mobile Home & Other 793 862 911 69 9%
Change
Town Has Disproportionate Town Has Disproportionate Inventory of Mobile HomesInventory of Mobile Homes
Comparative Housing Profile, 2005
59%
14%27%
73%
19%8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Single Family Units Multi-family Units Mobile Home & Other
Belmont
Belknap
90% of Mobile Homes Are 90% of Mobile Homes Are OccupiedOccupied
Mobile Home Occupancy, 2000, Belmont
Owner Occupied, 641
Renter Occupied, 80
Vacant, 133
Vacancy Rate Continues To DropVacancy Rate Continues To Drop
1990 2000 2005Year-Round Occupied+Vacant 2,344 2,762 3,087Year-Round Vacant 198 121 87Year-Round Vacancy Rate 8% 4% 3%
Median Home Price 10% Below Median Home Price 10% Below County, 35% Below State Figure: County, 35% Below State Figure: Impacts Ability to Pay for ServicesImpacts Ability to Pay for Services
Median Single Family Home Value, 2000
$96,300$109,600
$133,300
$-$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000
Belmont Belknap New Hampshire
Belmont Home Prices Double Since Belmont Home Prices Double Since 2000 Because of Strong Demand 2000 Because of Strong Demand
and Lower Interest Ratesand Lower Interest Rates
Median Price of Belmont Primary Housing
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: NHHFA
Median Price Closely Tracks County Median Price Closely Tracks County FigureFigure
Median Purchase Price of Primary Housing Units
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,00019
93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: NHHFA
Belmont Belknap County New Hampshire
BUT: Distribution Favors Lower BUT: Distribution Favors Lower Priced Housing in BelmontPriced Housing in Belmont
Comparative Price Distribution, 2006 (First Nine Months)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$150,000or less
$160,000-200,000
210,000-250,000
$260,000-300,000
$310,000-350,000
$360,000-400,000
$400,000+
Source: NHHFA Purchase Price Index
% o
f Sol
d U
nits
BelmontBelknap
Housing Stock Is AgeingHousing Stock Is Ageing
Belmont Single Family Homes By Year Built
922
512
189 236
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Before 1980 1980-89 1990-99 Since 2000
Source: Assessment records
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
Market Value By Year BuiltMarket Value By Year BuiltEqualized Market Value of Single Family Homes
in Belmont, Februrary 2007
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Before 1980 1980-89 1990-99 Since 2000 Total
Year Built
Break Even Value
Median Rent is Higher Than County Median Rent is Higher Than County Average, Close to State AverageAverage, Close to State Average
Median Gross Rent, 2000
$636
$588
$646
$540
$560
$580
$600
$620
$640
$660
Belmont Belknap New Hampshire
Median Income is Higher Than Median Income is Higher Than County Average, Close to NH LevelCounty Average, Close to NH Level
Median Household Income, 1999
$47,717$43,605
$49,467
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Belmont Belknap New Hampshire
Middle Class Dominates Belmont Middle Class Dominates Belmont Income DistributionIncome Distribution
Comparative Household Income Distribution, 1999
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under $
15,00
0$1
5,000
-24,99
9$2
5,000
-34,99
9$3
5,000
-49.99
9$5
0.000
-74,99
9$7
5,000
-99,99
9$1
00,00
0-149
,999
$150
,000+
Source: US Census
% o
f Hou
seho
lds Belmont
Belknap
Poverty Ratio is Lower Than County Poverty Ratio is Lower Than County and Stateand State
Percent of Population Below Poverty Level, 1999
5.7%6.5% 6.4%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
Belmont Belknap NewHampshire
Source: US Census
% B
elow
Pov
erty
Lev
el
Belmont Has Met Its Share of the Belmont Has Met Its Share of the Need for Subsidy UnitsNeed for Subsidy Units
Belmont Subsidized Housing Inventory
Belmont Housing for the Elderly 40Belmont Village Apartments 26Orchard Hill II 27Sandy Ledge Housing 11Realty Resources 24Total Belmont 40 88% of County Inventory 10% 20%
Most Workers Remain in Most Workers Remain in Region+ConcordRegion+Concord
Where Belmont Residents Worked, 2000
0200400600800
100012001400
Laconia
Belmont
Concord
Gilford
Tilton
Meredith
Frankli
nMan
ches
terAll O
ther
Factors Driving the Regional Factors Driving the Regional Housing MarketHousing Market
Housing is, in general, less expensive in the Lakes Housing is, in general, less expensive in the Lakes Region than points south of us.Region than points south of us.The regionThe region’’s job base has expanded and its economy is s job base has expanded and its economy is healthyhealthyThe Lakes Region is a favored retirement location, The Lakes Region is a favored retirement location, fostering infostering in--migration of older households.migration of older households.Housing has been a good investment over the long and Housing has been a good investment over the long and short terms.short terms.But, most of the regionBut, most of the region’’s job growth has been in lower s job growth has been in lower paying occupations, generating a housing affordability paying occupations, generating a housing affordability crunch.crunch.
ObservationsObservationsThe housing market has been exceptionally strong since 2000:The housing market has been exceptionally strong since 2000:
Home prices in Belmont and the region have doubledHome prices in Belmont and the region have doubledThe pace of new home construction in Belmont has doubledThe pace of new home construction in Belmont has doubledBelknap county is attracting new residents because of its strongBelknap county is attracting new residents because of its strong economy, lifestyle and housing economy, lifestyle and housing prices (lower than in southern parts of the state).prices (lower than in southern parts of the state).
BelmontBelmont’’s recent growth has been more in line with regional totalss recent growth has been more in line with regional totalsBelmont is primarily a middle income community.Belmont is primarily a middle income community.Belmont has a healthy mix of housing unit types, but a disproporBelmont has a healthy mix of housing unit types, but a disproportionate number of tionate number of mobile homes, and relatively few highmobile homes, and relatively few high--end homes.end homes.Recent construction has favored upper middle income single familRecent construction has favored upper middle income single family homes.y homes.Belmont has its Belmont has its ““fair sharefair share”” of low and moderate income residents and subsidy units.of low and moderate income residents and subsidy units.The sizable increase in subdivision lots applied for in 2005 andThe sizable increase in subdivision lots applied for in 2005 and approved in 2006, has approved in 2006, has subsided.subsided.Key need is to balance the inventory of lower priced housing witKey need is to balance the inventory of lower priced housing with more upper middle h more upper middle income housingincome housing——this is a pattern that has emerged in recent years and should bethis is a pattern that has emerged in recent years and should beencouraged to continue.encouraged to continue.BelmontBelmont’’s large inventory of manufactured housing (mobile homes) is a cos large inventory of manufactured housing (mobile homes) is a concern that ncern that should be addressed through standards for new parks.should be addressed through standards for new parks.