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Benchmarking c-Si & thin-film panels for utility scale deployment in 2018
Finlay Colvi l le, Head of Market Research
PV-Tech : Solar Media Ltd
PV CellTech 2017, Penang, Malaysia
© Solar Media L imited, 2017
2 Finlay Colville : PV CellTech 2017 © Solar Media Ltd., 2017
Copyright & disclaimer
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Copyright © 2017 Solar Media Limited
3 Finlay Colville : PV CellTech 2017 © Solar Media Ltd., 2017
Data sourcing
Solar Media Ltd
• Solar Media Ltd. is a diversified publishing, events and market intelligence business, servicing the global solar energy supply chain, including the renowned PV-Tech website & the PV CellTech conference.
Presenter
• Dr Finlay Colville is Head of Market Research at Solar Media Ltd.
• Previously he was Head of Solar at NPD Solarbuzz between 2010 & 2014.
• His blogs have appeared regularly on PV-Tech.org for more than 10 years.
Data sourcing
• All data & graphics are adapted from the January 2017 release of Solar Media Ltd.’s PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report.
• Extra inputs are from PV-Tech market research during February/March 2017.
4 Finlay Colville : PV CellTech 2017 © Solar Media Ltd., 2017
Contents
1. Why focus on the utility segment?
2. Why 2018?
3. Thin-film landscape today for GW production
4. Comparing efficiencies & powers: 72-cell p-multi (STC & 70oC)
5. Other key thin-film metrics, ahead of panel discussion
5 Finlay Colville : PV CellTech 2017 © Solar Media Ltd., 2017
1. Why utility segment?
• The top 4 countries for PV demand in 2016 – accounting for three-quarters global demand – are dominated by large-scale (‘utility’) solar, strongly weighted to ground-mounted solar farms.
• Europe retains a healthy rooftop market.
• The RoW segment is dominated by ground-mount solar farms.
6 Finlay Colville : PV CellTech 2017 © Solar Media Ltd., 2017
2. Why 2018?
• 2018 is forecast to be the mass-production launch date for First Solar’s new Series 6 panels.
• Series 6 panels are 1.2 x 1.8m, similar to 72 x 6” c-Si panels. Shifting from 60 to 72-cell c-Si panels has been a trend in recent years for solar farms.
• Other thin-film companies often target rooftop applications: First Solar is the main thin-film threat for utility scale c-Si activities.
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3.1 Thin-film landscape today
• Thin-film panel production retains market-share in the PV industry, at the sub-5% level.
• 10 years ago, many industry observers were forecasting 30-50% thin-film market share adoption by 2020.
• Shake-out of PV manufacturing has been evident in thin-film, and not c-Si.
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3.2 Thin-film landscape today
• Two GW-scale thin-film manufacturers; First Solar & Solar Frontier
• Amorphous-silicon no longer considered a viable PV technology
• New entrants/challengers still focusing on CIGS
• New entrant investment: • China specific
• Continued focus on CIGS with some CdTe movement
• Many questions remain however
• Mass production know-how
• Cost structure
• Route-to-market
• Bankability outside China
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4.1 Comparing efficiencies STC
• Thin-film is typically competing with 60 & 72-cell p-type mono & multi.
• Comparison is done for module efficiencies at STC.
• First Solar’s improvements from strong R&D, upgrade capex to Series 4 lines.
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4.2 Comparing powers 70oC
• Thin-film (power dependent) temperature coefficients highlight competitiveness of Series 6 panels.
• However, this is simply a ‘guide’!
• Also, p-type has more potential upside, grids, M4 wafers, selective emitter, etc.
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5. Other key metrics
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