BENTEK Wind Power Paradox Reduced

The Wind Power Paradox

July 2011

1

!

"#$!%&'(!)*+$,!)-,-(*.!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

/012!345!6733!

!

!

! !

2

Contents 8*'9$'9:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6!

"-<1$!*=!>&?0,$:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@!

A;! B.$C09&D$!E0FF-,2!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!G!

AA;! A'9,*(0C9&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!H!

I-CJ?,*0'(!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!K!

L-9-!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!37!

AAA;! %&'(!I$C*F$:!-!E&?'&=&C-'9!8*FM*'$'9!*=!9#$!)*+$,!>1$$9;;;;;;;;!33!

AN;! E90(&$:! O0$:9&)*1&C2!PMM$-1!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!3G!

N;! 82C1&'?!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!3K!

NA;! AFM-C9:!*=!82C1&'?!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6Q!

NAA;! "#$!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!)-,-(*.!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@7!

S*($1!PMM,*-C#!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@7!

BF&::&*'!T$(0C9&*'!>&'(&'?:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@6!

NAAA;! "#$!8*:9:!*=!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@K!

T$'$+-<1$!B1$C9,&C&92!>$($,-1!),*(0C9&*'!"-.!8,$(&9!U)"8V!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@K!

AFM1&$(!8*:9:!*=!E-D&'?!8W!!9#,*0?#!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@4!

W9#$,!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!8*:9!8*FM*'$'9:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!Q3!

AX;! 8*'C10:&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!QY!

X;! %*,J:!8&9$(!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!QK!

XA;! P))BZLAX!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!G6!

! !

3

Table of Figures >&?0,$!AAA[3\!];E;!A':9-11$(!%&'(!8-M-C&92;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!33!>&?0,$!AAA[6\!ZTB^!%&'(!T$:*0,C$!S-M!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!36!>&?0,$!AAA[@\!];E;!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!-'(!%&'(!"0,<&'$!8-M-C&92!;;;;;;;;;;;;;!3Q!>&?0,$!N[3\!BT8W"!R$'$,-9&*'!E9-CJ!Z*D;!G\365!677K!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!34!>&?0,$!N[6\!BT8W"!%&'(!8-M-C&92!_!8*-1!82C1&'?!BD$'9:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!67!>&?0,$!N[@\!PD$,-?$!`*0,12!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!_!^*-(!&'!BT8W"5!6774!63!>&?0,$!N[Q\!SAEW!R$'$,-9&*'!E9-CJ5!PM,&1!3\K5!6774!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!66!>&?0,$!N[G\!I)P!R$'$,-9&*'!E9-CJ5!E$M9$F<$,!3H\6@5!6774!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6@!>&?0,$! NA[3\! R&<<*':! 8,$$J! E9$-F! B1$C9,&C! E9-9&*'! UBT8W"V5! /-'0-,2!K\45!6774!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6G!>&?0,$! NA[6\! R&<<*':! 8,$$J! E9$-F! B1$C9,&C! E9-9&*'! UBT8W"V5! /-'0-,2!K\45!6774!BF&::&*':!T-9$:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6Y!>&?0,$!NA[@\!%&'(!BD$'9!*'!)E8*!E2:9$F!U/012!65!677KV!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6Y!>&?0,$!NA[Q\!`*0,[9*[`*0,!8#-'?$!&'!R$'$,-9&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6H!>&?0,$! NA[G\! BF&::&*':! -'(! R$'$,-9&*'! W09M09! -9! 8#$,*J$$! *'!Ha6a677K!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!6K!>&?0,$!NAA[3\!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!BF&::&*'!E-D&'?:!M$,!S%#!<2!"$,,&9*,2!D:;!PD$,-?$!];E;!)*+$,!BF&::&*':!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@6!>&?0,$!NAA[6\!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'! BF&::&*':! E-D&'?:! D:;!8*-1!R$'$,-9&*'!S-,J$9!E#-,$!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@@!>&?0,$! NAA[@\! PC90-1! 8W

6! BF&::&*':! E-D&'?:! <2! E9-9$! _! "*9-1! %&'(!

R$'$,-9&*'5!6774!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@G!>&?0,$!NAA[Q\!];E;!BF&::&*':! E-D&'?:!M$,!S%#!*=!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!D:;!PD$,-?$!];E;!)*+$,!BF&::&*':!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@Y!>&?0,$!NAA[G\!8W

6!BF&::&*':!T-9$:!*=!8*-1!-'(!Z-90,-1!R-:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@H!

>&?0,$!NAAA[3\!P''0-1!8*:9!*=!>$($,-1!),*(0C9&*'!"-.!8,$(&9! =*,!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!@4!>&?0,$! NAAA[6\! E*C&-1! 8*:9! 9*! W==:$9! 3! "*'! *=! 8W

6! 9#,*0?#! %&'(!

R$'$,-9&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!Q7!>&?0,$! NAAA[@\! B1$C9,&C&92! ),&C$:! -'(! %&'(! R$'$,-9&*'! &'! BT8W"5! S-2!6774!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!Q@!>&?0,$!NAAA[Q\!BT8W"!%$:9!Z$?-9&D$!),&C$!>,$b0$'C2!D:;!A':9-11$(!%&'(!8-M-C&92!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!QQ!

4

!!!

Table of Figures Continued

>&?0,$!XA[3\!BT8W"!%&'(!L-2:!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!GQ!!

Bb0-9&*'!3\!BF&::&*':!S*($1!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!GQ!!

"-<1$!3\!BF&::&*':!E-D&'?:!M$,!S%#!*=!%&'(c!8*:9!*=!E-D&'?!3!"*'!*=!8W

6!M$,!T$?&*'!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!G!

"-<1$! XA[3\! ZTB^! B:9&F-9$(! )*9$'9&-1! %&'(! "0,<&'$! 8-M-C&92! _!]9&1&d-9&*'!T-9$!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!G6!"-<1$!XA[6\!T$'$+-<1$!)*,9=*1&*!E9-'(-,(:!<2!E9-9$!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;!G@!! !

O0$:9&*':e!8*'9-C9!I,-''&'!SCI$$!-9!<FC<$$f<$'9$J$'$,?2;C*F!!

*,!C-11!@7@;4KK;3@67;!

mailto:[email protected]

5

!

I. Executive Summary !

!

>*,!2$-,:!9#$!+&'(!$'$,?2!&'(0:9,2!-'(!-!D-:9!-,,-2!*=!M*1&9&C&-':!#-D$!C1-&F$(! 9#-9! &'C,$-:&'?! 9#$!0:$!*=!+&'(!M*+$,! 9*!M,*(0C$! $1$C9,&C&92!+&11! ,$:019! &'! #0?$! ,$(0C9&*':! &'! 8W

6! -'(! *9#$,! $F&::&*':;! ! "#$:$!

C1-&F:! ,$:9! *'! 9#$! ,$:019:! *=! (&:M-9C#!F*($1:! 9#-9! M,$(&C9! '*9! *'12!$F&::&*':5! <09! -1:*! =0$1! C*:9:! -'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! 1$D$1:! =*,! &'(&D&(0-1!09&1&9&$:!-'(!09&1&92!?,&(:;!!!

!"#$ %&'($ )*+#,$ )-,-(*.$ =&'(:! 9#-9! 9#$:$! C1-&F:! -,$! :&?'&=&C-'912!*D$,:9-9$(;! ! "#&:! :90(25! 9#$! =&,:9! 9*! :2:9$F-9&C-112! -::$::! $F&::&*'!,$(0C9&*'!M$,=*,F-'C$!<-:$(!*'!-C90-1!?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!$F&::&*':!(-9-!-C,*::!-!D-,&$92!*=!,$?&*':5!,$D$-1:!9#-9!-C90-1!8W

6!,$(0C9&*':!9#,*0?#!

+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! -,$! $&9#$,! :*! :F-11! -:! 9*! <$! &':&?'&=&C-'9! *,! 9**!$.M$':&D$!9*!<$!M,-C9&C-1;!!

"#$!:90(2!,$:019:!-,$!:0FF-,&d$(!&'!"-<1$!3;! !PC90-1!$F&::&*':!(-9-!,$D$-1! -! +&($! ,-'?$! *=! $F&::&*':! ,$(0C9&*':! =,*F! +&'(! M*+$,!($M$'(&'?!*'! 9#$! ,$?&*';! ! EW

6! ,$(0C9&*':! ,-'?$!<$9+$$'!7;7!-'(!Q;4!

1<:aS%#5!ZWX!,$(0C9&*':!-,$!<$9+$$'!7;3!-'(!6;7! 1<:aS%#5!-'(!8W

6!

,$(0C9&*':!-,$!<$9+$$'!-'(!7;3!-'(!3;7!9*':aS%#!($M$'(&'?!*'!9#$!,$?&*'!-'-12d$(;!!

"#$%&'()'*+,--,./-'0#1,/2-'3&4'567'.8'6,/9:';.-<'.8'0#1,/2'('"./'.8';=

!'3&4'>&2,./!

! 0=!'

?%$-@567A'

B=C'

?%$-@567A'

;=!'

?<./-@567A'

;=!'

?D@567@<./A'

*>;="' 3;6! 7;H! 7;G! gH3!EFG' 7;3! 7;6! 7;3! gQ67!;GH0=' 7;7! 7;3! 7;@! g33Q!5H0=' Q;4! 6;7! 3;7! g@@!IJ0J'G12' 6;6! 3;3! 7;Y! gGY!G6*G' G;H! 6;@! 7;K! gQ6!!

6

"#$!,$?&*'-1!(&==$,$'C$:!,$=1$C9!9#$!?$'$,-9&*'!:*0,C$!9#-9!&:!C2C1$(!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!+&'(;!A'!I)P!-'(!8PAEW5!+&'(!?$'$,-112!(&:M1-C$:!$&9#$,!#2(,*M*+$,! *,! '-90,-1! ?-:[=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*';! `2(,*M*+$,! #-:! '*!-::*C&-9$(! $F&::&*':;! ZW

X! -'(! 8W

6! $F&::&*':! =,*F! '-90,-1! ?-:[=&,$(!

M*+$,!?$'$,-9&*'!-,$!,$1-9&D$12!1*+!-'(!EW6!-,$!D&,90-112!'*'$.&:9$'9;!

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

"-<1$!3!-1:*!&'(&C-9$:!9#$!C*:9!*=!:-D&'?!*'$!9*'!*=!8W!!&'!$-C#!,$?&*'!

&=!+&'(!$'$,?2!C*:9:!-,$!D-10$(!:*1$12!*'!9#$!=$($,-1!?*D$,'F$'9!9-.!C,$(&9!9#-9!&:!M,*D&($(!=*,!$-C#!S%!*=!$1$C9,&C&92!?$'$,-9$(!<2!+&'(;3!I-:$(! *'! 9#$! 9*':! *=! 8W

!! -C90-112! -D*&($(! -:! -! ,$:019! *=! +&'(!

?$'$,-9&*'5! &9! (*$:! '*9! -MM$-,! 9#-9! +&'(! M*+$,! &:! -! C*:9[$==$C9&D$!:*109&*'!=*,!,$(0C&'?!8W

!!&=!C-,<*'!&:!D-10$(!-9!1$::!9#-'!g@@!M$,!9*';!!

"#$:$! ,$:019:! ($,&D$! =,*F! -'! -'-12:&:! *=! ($9-&1$(! (-9-! *'! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!$F&::&*':!=,*F!M1-'9:!&'!=*0,!,$?&*'-1!M*+$,!-,$-:! !9#$! B1$C9,&C! T$1&-<&1&92! 8*0'C&1! *=! "$.-:! UBT8W"V5! I*''$D&11$! )*+$,!P(F&'&:9,-9&*'! UI)P! [! )-C&=&C! Z*,9#+$:9! ,$?&*'V5! 9#$! 8-1&=*,'&-!A'($M$'($'9! E2:9$F!WM$,-9*,! U8PAEWV! -'(! 9#$!S&(+$:9! A'($M$'($'9!E2:9$F!WM$,-9*,! USAEWV;! "#&:! ,$M*,9! $:9&F-9$:! 9#$! ,$(0C9&*'! &'! EW

!5!

ZWX!-'(!8W

6!(0$!9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'!9#*:$!9$,,&9*,&$:5!09&1&d&'?!F*,$!

9#-'! @775777! &'(&D&(0-1! #*0,12! *<:$,D-9&*':! =*,! 9#$! 2$-,:! 677H!9#,*0?#!6774;!"#$!,$:019:!=*,!$-C#!,$?&*'!-,$!C*FM-,$(!9*!9#$!:-D&'?:!C1-&F$(!<2!P%BP!-'(!9#$!-D$,-?$!$F&::&*'!,-9$!*=!9#$,F-1!?$'$,-9&*'!0'&9:!-C,*::!9#$!];E;!!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 Currently, the federal government tax credit for wind energy is $22 per MWh pre-tax and $34 per MWh after-tax.

7

II. Introduction !

!

M*1&C2;! S-'2! &'! 9#$! ];E;! -'(! -,*0'(! 9#$! +*,1(! #-D$! $F<,-C$(!+&'(!$'$,?2! -:! 9#$! M,&'C&M-1! ,$'$+-<1$! $'$,?2! :*0,C$! <2! +#&C#!F-'J&'(!C-'! :1-2! 9#$! 9+&'! (,-?*':! *=! #2(,*C-,<*'! C*':0FM9&*'! -'(!M,*(0C9&*'!*=!?,$$'#*0:$!?-:$:!UR`RV;!!

WD$,!9#$!M-:9!3K!2$-,:!9#$!];E;!=$($,-1!?*D$,'F$'95!F-'2!:9-9$:!-'(!:*F$! 1*C-1! ?*D$,'F$'9:! #-D$! ($D&:$(! '0F$,*0:! M,*?,-F:! 9*!$'C*0,-?$! 9#$! ($D$1*MF$'9! *=! ,$'$+-<1$! $'$,?2;! "#$! =$($,-1!?*D$,'F$'9! M,*D&($:! (&,$C9! =&'-'C&-1! :0<:&(&$:! =*,! ,$'$+-<1$!9$C#'*1*?&$:! D&-! M,*(0C9&*'! 9-.! C,$(&9:;!S-'2! :9-9$:! #-D$! -(*M9$(! -!F*,$! &'(&,$C9! -MM,*-C#! <2! &FM1$F$'9&'?! T$'$+-<1$! )*,9=*1&*!E9-'(-,(:! UT)EV5!+#&C#! ,$b0&,$!09&1&9&$:! 9*!M0,C#-:$! D-,&*0:! 1$D$1:!*=!M*+$,! ?$'$,-9$(! =,*F! ,$'$+-<1$! $'$,?2! :*0,C$:;! 8-1&=*,'&-! #-:! 9#$!#&?#$:9! T)E! ,$b0&,$F$'9! ! @@h! <2! 6767! ! -'(! @6! *9#$,! :9-9$:! #-D$!&FM1$F$'9$(! =*,F-1! T)E! M,*?,-F:;! E&.9$$'! *=! 9#*:$! :9-9$:! ,$b0&,$!67h!*,!F*,$!*=! 9*9-1!M*+$,! :-1$:! 9*!C*F$! =,*F!$1$C9,&C&92! ?$'$,-9$(!=,*F!,$'$+-<1$!$'$,?2!:*0,C$:!<2!676G;!

L0,&'?! 6774! -'(! 6737! 9#$,$! +$,$! ,$M$-9$(! (&:C0::&*':! &'! 8*'?,$::!-<*09!$:9-<1&:#&'?!-!'-9&*'-1!T)E5!F*,$!$D&($'C$!9#-9!+&'(!-'(!:*1-,!$'$,?2!,$F-&'!-9!9#$!=*,$=,*'9!*=!];E;!$'$,?2!M*1&C2;!

%&'(!$'$,?2!#-:!<$C*F$!9#$!F*:9!M$,D-:&D$!*=!9#$!,$'$+-<1$!$'$,?2!9$C#'*1*?&$:;! E&'C$! 677G! F*,$! 9#-'! 6K5777! S%! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92!#-:!<$$'!<0&19!&'!9#$!];E;!C*FM-,$(!9*!65777!S%!=*,!-11!*9#$,!=*,F:!*=!,$'$+-<1$!$'$,?2;!A'!67375!-<*09!4656HH!R%#5!*,!F*,$!9#-'!6h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

8

R&D$'!9#$!M,*1&=$,-9&*'!*=!+&'(!$'$,?2!?$'$,-9&*'!=-C&1&9&$:5! &9! &:!9&F$!9*!9$:9!9#&:!-::0FM9&*';!PFM1$!?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!$F&::&*':!(-9-!$.&:9!9*!9$:9! 9#$! M,$:0FM9&*'! 9#-9! -((&'?! +&'(! M*+$,! 9*! 9#$! ];E;! $'$,?2!M*,9=*1&*! +&11! :&?'&=&C-'912! ,$(0C$! $F&::&*':;! >*,! 9#&:! ,$M*,95!

*=!M0<1&C!(*11-,:!-:!D-10$(!<2!9#$!=$($,-1!?*D$,'F$'9!M,*(0C9&*'!9-.!C,$(&9;!A'!*9#$,!+*,(:5!&:!9#$!C*:9!*=!9#$!+&'(!$'$,?2!9-.!C,$(&9!9*!9#$!9-.M-2$,! $b0-1! 9*! *,! ?,$-9$,! 9#-'! 9#$! D-10$! *=! 9#$! 8W

6! $F&::&*':!

,$(0C9&*'! =,*F!+&'(! $'$,?2e! P'! $.-F&'-9&*'! *=! -C90-1! M$,=*,F-'C$!(-9-!-11*+:!=*,!-'!-::$::F$'9!*=!9#$!-C90-1!,$(0C9&*':!*=!E7

!5!ZW

X!-'(!

8W!! 9#-9! ,$:019$(! =,*F! 9#$! -((&9&*'! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! A9! -1:*!

M,*D&($:! -! :9-,9&'?! M*&'9! =*,! -::$::&'?! +#$9#$,! -C90-1! $F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*':! -,$! :0==&C&$'9! 9*! i0:9&=2! 9#$! -::*C&-9$(! C*FF&9F$'9! *=!=$($,-1!9-.!(*11-,:!9#,*0?#!9#$!M,*(0C9&*'!9-.!C,$(&9;!!

PCC*,(&'?125!9#$!*<i$C9&D$!*=!9#&:!:90(2!&:!9*!-::$::!9#$!EW!5!ZW

X!-'(!

8W!!:-D&'?:!=,*F!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!9#-9!#-D$!<$$'!-C#&$D$(!&'!BT8W"5!

I)P5!8PAEW!-'(!SAEW;!IBZ"Bj5!&'!C*'i0'C9&*'!+&9#!L,;!L-'&$1!j-==&'$!=,*F!9#$!8*1*,-(*!EC#**1!*=!S&'$:! U8ESV5!($D$1*M$(!-!,$(0C$(!=*,F!$C*'*F$9,&C!F*($1! *=! 9#$! &'9$,-C9&*'! -F*'?!+&'(5! C*-1! -'(! '-90,-1!?-:[=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*'! +&9#&'! $-C#! ,$?&*'! -'(! 9#$! ,$:019&'?! C#-'?$! &'!EW

!5!ZW

X!-'(!8W

!!$F&::&*':!9#-9!*CC0,,$(!-:!+&'(!$'$,?2!?$'$,-9&*'!

&'C,$-:$(;6!"#&:!-'-12:&:! &:!<-:$(!*'!#*0,12!?$'$,-9&*'!(-9-!M,*D&($(!<2!9#$! A'($M$'($'9!E2:9$F!WM$,-9*,:! UAEWV! &'!$-C#!*=!9#$! =*0,!-,$-:!-'(! -C90-1! #*0,12! $F&::&*':! (-9-! ,$M*,9$(! <2! 09&1&9&$:! 9*! 9#$! ];E;!B'D&,*'F$'9-1! ),*9$C9&*'! P?$'C2! UB)PV! 9#,*0?#! 9#$! 8*'9&'0*0:!BF&::&*':!S*'&9*,2!E2:9$F!U8BSEV;!!

Background

"#&:!'$+!-'-12:&:!=*11*+:!-'*9#$,!+&'(!:90(2!,$1$-:$(!<2!IBZ"Bj!&'!6737! 9#-9! &($'9&=&$(! C2C1&'?! &::0$:! &'! BT8W"! -'(! )0<1&C! E$,D&C$!8*FM-'2!*=!8*1*,-(* !

:! ,$(0C9&*':! 9#*0?#9! 9*!<$! -C#&$D$(! <2! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &'! BT8W"! -'(! )E8*! +$,$! $&9#$,!F&'&F-1!*,!'*'$.&:9$'9!&'!9#*:$!9$,,&9*,&$:;!"#$!,$M*,9!+-:!9#$!=&,:9!9*!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!2 Reduced-form models are used to simplify the complex relationships between variables without making too many assumptions about those relationships.

9

0:$! ($9-&1$(! $FM&,&C-1! (-9-! ,-9#$,! 9#-'! $:9&F-9$:! #2M*9#$:&d$(! &'!D-,&*0:! (&:M-9C#! F*($1:! 9*! -::$::! 9#$! $F&::&*':! &FM-C9! *=! -((&'?!+&'(! M*+$,! 9*! 9#$:$! -,$-:;! "#$! -'-12:&:! ,$C$&D$(! -! '0F<$,! *=!&FM*,9-'9!C,&9&C&:F:\!

3V %#&1$! 9#$,$! &:!-FM1$!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!(-9-! &'!BT8W"!9*!C1$-,12!1&'J!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!9*!C2C1&'?!*=!C*-1!0'&9:5!9#$!(-9-!&'!)E8*!&:!&':0==&C&$'9!<$C-0:$!&9!&:!1&F&9$(!9*!-!=$+!(-2:c!)E8*!&:!0'+&11&'?!9*!F-J$!#*0,12!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!(-9-!M0<1&C-112!-D-&1-<1$;!

6V P! -!(-2! &'!+#&C#!

?$'$,-9&*'!&:!F*:9!:9-<1$!-9!$-C#!C*-1!=-C&1&92;!"#&:!C*FM-,&:*'!+-:!C,&9&C&d$(!=*,!*D$,:9-9&'?!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'[(,&D$'!$F&::&*':!$:9&F-9$:;!

@V "#$!,$M*,9!+-:!=0'($(!<2!A)PSE!U'*+!J'*+'!-:!%$:9$,'!B'$,?2!P11&-'C$V5!-!9,-($!*,?-'&d-9&*'!=*,!9#$!*&1!-'(!?-:!&'(0:9,2;!"#$!,$M*,9!+-:!(&:F&::$(!<2!:*F$!<$C-0:$!*=!&9:!=0'(&'?!:*0,C$;!!

QV "#$! $F&::&*':! &FM-C9:! ,$:019&'?! =,*F! *M$,-9&'?! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! &':9$-(! *=! '-90,-1! ?-:[=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*'! +$,$! '*9!-((,$::$(! &'! 9#$! ,$M*,95! -:! 9#$! :9-<1$! (-2!F$9#*(*1*?2! C*01(!'*9! <$! -MM1&$(! 9*! '-90,-1! ?-:[=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*';! Z-90,-1! ?-:!?$'$,-9&*'!-1F*:9!<2!($=&'&9&*'!(*$:!'*9!#-D$!-! :9-<1$!(-2 !-:!&9!&:!($:&?'$(!9*!<$!=,$b0$'912!C2C1$(!=*,!F-'2!,$-:*':;!

"#&:! =$$(<-CJ! +-:! &'C*,M*,-9$(! &'9*! 9#$! C0,,$'9! :90(2;! "#&:! ,$M*,9!-((,$::$:!9#$:$!C,&9&b0$:!&'!9#$!=*11*+&'?!F-''$,\!

3V P'-12:&:! &:! C*'(0C9$(! *'! -,$-:! &'!+#&C#! =011! (-9-:$9:! *=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!9#$,F-1!$F&::&*':!-'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-,$!-D-&1-<1$;!)E8*! &:! 1-,?$12! (,*MM$(! =,*F! 9#&:! -'-12:&:5! $.C$M9! &'! :$D$,-1!$.-FM1$:!&'!+#&C#!-($b0-9$!(-9-!&:!-D-&1-<1$;!!

6V "#$! :9-<1$[(-2! F$9#*(*1*?2! +-:! ,$M1-C$(! +&9#! -! ,$?,$::&*'[<-:$(! -MM,*-C#;! A'! C*'i0'C9&*'! +&9#! L,;! j-==&'$5! IBZ"Bj!($D$1*M$(! -! ,$?,$::&*'!F$9#*(*1*?2! 9*!($9$,F&'$! 9#$! &FM-C9:!*=!+&'(!*'!$F&::&*':;!

@V IBZ"Bj!=0'($(!9#&:!,$:$-,C#!+&9#!&9:!*+'!,$:*0,C$:;!QV "#$!:90(2!&'C10($:!9#$!&'9$,-C9&*'!-F*'?!+&'(5!C*-1!-'(!'-90,-1!

?-:!?$'$,-9&*'!&'!9#$!-::$::F$'9!*=!$F&::&*':!&FM-C9:;!!

"#$!?*-1!*=!9#&:!,$M*,9!&:!9*!M,*D&($!=0'(-F$'9-1!(-9-!-'(!-'-12:&:!:*!9#-9! M*1&C2F-J$,:! -'(!F-,J$9!M-,9&C&M-'9:! C-'!F-J$!F*,$! &'=*,F$(!

10

$'$,?2! ($C&:&*':5! M-,9&C01-,12! ,$1-9$(! 9*!+&'(! M*+$,! -'(!F*,$! C*:9[$==$C9&D$!+-2:!9*!,$(0C$!$F&::&*':!=,*F!M*+$,!?$'$,-9&*';!

Data

S019&M1$!(-9-!:*0,C$:!0'($,1&$! 9#&:!-'-12:&:;!"#$,F-1! ?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!$F&::&*':!(-9-!&:!:*0,C$(!=,*F!9#$!B'D&,*'F$'9-1!),*9$C9&*'!UB)PV! 8*'9&'0*0:! BF&::&*'! S*'&9*,&'?! E2:9$F! U8BSEV! M,*?,-F5! -!,$M*,9&'?! ,$b0&,$F$'9! *=! 9#$! 81$-'! P&,! PC9; @ !"#&:! M,*?,-F!C*'9&'0*0:12! F*'&9*,:! <*&1$,[1$D$1! #*0,12! $F&::&*':5! ?$'$,-9&*'! -'(!=0$1!C*':0FM9&*'!-9!$D$,2!C*-15!*&1!-'(!'-90,-1!?-:!M*+$,!M1-'9!&'!9#$!]'&9$(! E9-9$:! 9#-9! &:!F*,$! 9#-'! 6G! S%! &'! C-M-C&92! U35GQ6! =-C&1&9&$:5!Q5463!<*&1$,:V;!"#&:!:-FM1$!,$M,$:$'9:!9#$!D-:9!F-i*,&92! U&'!$.C$::!*=!4YhV!*=!$1$C9,&C&92!?$'$,-9&*'!=,*F!9#$,F-1!0'&9:!U$.C10(&'?!'0C1$-,V!&'!9#$! '-9&*';! `*0,12! 9$FM$,-90,$! (-9-! -1:*! &:! 09&1&d$(! 9*! C-M90,$! 9#$!=10C90-9&*':!&'!($F-'(!9#,*0?#*09!9#$!(-2;!"#&:!(-9-!&:!:*0,C$(!=,*F!ZWPP! -'(! &:! M*M01-9&*'[+$&?#9$(! =*,! $-C#! ,$?&*'! &'! 9#$! -'-12:&:;Q!>&'-1125! #*0,12! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! (-9-! &:! :*0,C$(! =,*F! 9#$! ,$:M$C9&D$!AEW!<-1-'C&'?!-09#*,&9&$:;G!Y!H!K!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!3 http://camddataandmaps.epa.gov/gdm/index.cfm 4 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html G!ERCOT: http://planning.ercot.com/data/hourly-windoutput/!6 MISO: http://www.midwestmarket.org/publish/Folder/25228f 10631e11216-7fe30a48324a?rev=11 7 CAISO: http://www.caiso.com/1817/181783ae9a90.html 8 BPA: http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/windpower.html

http://camddataandmaps.epa.gov/gdm/index.cfm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

http://planning.ercot.com/data/hourly-windoutput/

http://www.midwestmarket.org/publish/Folder/25228f%2010631e11216-7fe30a48324a?rev=11

http://www.midwestmarket.org/publish/Folder/25228f%2010631e11216-7fe30a48324a?rev=11

http://www.caiso.com/1817/181783ae9a90.html

http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/windpower.html

11

III. Wind Becomes a Significant Component of the Power Fleet

!

!

A'!67775!+&'(!M*+$,$(!*'12!-!'$?1&?&<1$!7;3Gh!*=!9*9-1!];E;!$1$C9,&C&92!($F-'(;! "*(-2! &9! M,*D&($:! F*,$! 9#-'! 6;7h! *=! 9*9-1! ];E;! $1$C9,&C&92!($F-'(5!+&9#!F*,$!9#-'!@Y5777!S%!*=!&':9-11$(!+&'(!90,<&'$!C-M-C&92!-'(!-'*9#$,!Y5777!S%!&'!($D$1*MF$'9;!!

K,2L4&'HHHM()'IJ0J'H/-<#%%&9'6,/9';#3#N,<O!

!

A'! ?$'$,-15! +&'(! =-,F:! -,$! :&9$(! &'! -,$-:! +#$,$! +&'(! $'$,?2! C-'!-C90-112!<$!C-M90,$(!-9!,-9$:!9#-9!-,$!$C*'*F&C-112!D&-<1$;!>&?0,$!AAA[3!:#*+:!9#-9!+&'(!?$'$,-9*,:!#-D$!F*:912!<$$'!($D$1*M$(!&'!9#$!R,$-9!)1-&':! U&'C10(&'?!"$.-:!-'(!WJ1-#*F-V5! 9#$!Z*,9#+$:95! 9#$!Z*,9#$-:9!-'(!8-1&=*,'&-;!!

"#$! Z-9&*'-1! T$'$+-<1$! B'$,?2! ^-<*,-9*,2! UZTB^V! #-:! M$,=*,F$(!$.9$':&D$!-'-12:&:!*'!];E;!+&'(!,$:*0,C$:!9*!($9$,F&'$!9#$!<$:9!-,$-:!=*,!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!"#&:!-'-12:&:!=*C0:$:!*'!#*+!+&'(!M$,=*,F$(!-9!9#$! K7[F$9$,! 1$D$15! -MM,*.&F-9$12! 9#$! #$&?#9! *=! F*:9! F*($,'!C*FF$,C&-1!90,<&'$:;!>&?0,$!AAA[6!&:!-!?,-M#&C-1!($M&C9&*'!*=!9#&:!(-9-;!

12

"#$! $.&:9$'C$! *=! 9#$! M0,M1$! -'(! ,$(! :#-($(! -,$-:! &'! 9#$! S&(+$:9!&'(&C-9$:! 9#$! 1*C-9&*'! *=! 9#$! :9,*'?$:9! -'(! F*:9! -D-&1-<1$! +&'(!,$:*0,C$:;!!

K,2L4&'HHHM!)'B>*P'6,/9'>&-.L4N&'5#3Q!

!

Z*9! :0,M,&:&'?125! -:! &:! ,$=1$C9$(! &'! >&?0,$! AAA[35! 9#$! #&?#$:9!C*'C$'9,-9&*'!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!,$:*0,C$:!&:!&'!9#$:$!-,$-:;!!

ZTB^! -1:*! C*'(0C9$(! -'-12:&:! 9*! 0'($,:9-'(! 9#$! $==&C&$'C2! *=! +&'(!90,<&'$:! &'!$-C#!:9-9$;!]:&'?!9#$!+&'(!,$:*0,C$!(-9-5!ZTB^! &($'9&=&$(!9#$! M*9$'9&-1! &':9-11$(! C-M-C&92! =*,! K7[F$9$,! +&'(! 90,<&'$:! -'(! 9#$!09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$:;!"#&:!=011!(-9-:$9!&:!M,$:$'9$(!&'!PMM$'(&.!P!&'!"-<1$!XA[3;! WD$,-115! ZTB^! $:9&F-9$:! 9#$,$! &:! 9#$! M*9$'9&-1! =*,! '$-,12!375G775777!S%!*=!+&'(!90,<&'$!C-M-C&92!-9!-'!-D$,-?$!09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$!*=!Q7h;!"#$! ,$?&*':!+&9#! 9#$!#&?#$:9!+&'(! ,$:*0,C$:! -1:*! ,$=1$C9! 9#$!#&?#$:9! 09&1&d-9&*'! ,-9$:;! >*,! $.-FM1$5!ZTB^!$:9&F-9$:! 9#-9!Z$<,-:J-!+&'(!=-C&1&9&$:!+&11!#-D$!-'!$:9&F-9$(!QQh!09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$!C*FM-,$(!9*!P1-<-F-5!+&9#!-'!$:9&F-9$(!@6h!09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$;37!!

A':9-11&'?! 9#&:! F0C#! +&'(! 90,<&'$! C-M-C&92! +*01(! ,$M,$:$'9! -!:&?'&=&C-'9! M*+$,! ?$'$,-9&*'! :*0,C$! =*,! 9#$! ];E;! P9! -'! -D$,-?$! Q7h!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!9 (NREL, Wind Maps) 10 Utilization rate = actual energy generated / potential energy generated

13

09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$5!375G77!R%!*=!+&'(!C-M-C&92!+*01(!?$'$,-9$!Q563G!R%!*=!$1$C9,&C&92!$D$,2!#*0,5!+#&C#!9#$!B'$,?2!A'=*,F-9&*'!P(F&'&:9,-9&*'!UBAPV!:-2:!&:!'$-,12!37!9&F$:!9#$!-D$,-?$!#*0,12!$1$C9,&C&92!($F-'(!&'!9#$!];E;33!

E&'C$!9#$!F&((1$!M-,9!*=!9#$!M-:9!($C-($!$'$,?2!M*1&C2!#-:!:0MM*,9$(!+&'(! $'$,?2! ($D$1*MF$'9;! )*1&C2! -C9&*'! #-:! 9-J$'! M1-C$! -9! <*9#! 9#$!:9-9$!-'(!=$($,-1! 1$D$15!-'(!-:!-! ,$:0195!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! &'!6774!F$9!F*,$!9#-'!3h!*=!];E;!$1$C9,&C&92!($F-'(!=*,!9#$!=&,:9!9&F$;!

B:9-<1&:#&'?!T$'$+-<1$!)*,9=*1&*!E9-'(-,(:!UT)EV!&:!9#$!M,&F-,2!M*1&C2!-C9&*'! 9#-9! #-:! <$$'! 9-J$'! <2! :9-9$:! 9*! M,*F*9$! +&'(! $'$,?2!($D$1*MF$'95! -'(!64! :9-9$:!#-(!T)E!*<1&?-9&*':! -9! 9#$! $'(!*=!6737;!"#$:$!:9-'(-,(:!92M&C-112!F-'(-9$!9#-9!09&1&9&$:!*M$,-9&'?!&'!9#$!:9-9$!*<9-&'! :*F$! M$,C$'9-?$! *=! 9#$&,! $'$,?2! :-1$:! ,$b0&,$F$'9:! =,*F!,$'$+-<1$! :*0,C$:;! A'! :*F$! C-:$:! 9#$! F-'(-9$:! :M$C&=2! ,$'$+-<1$!$'$,?2! 92M$:5! <09! 0:0-112! 09&1&9&$:! -,$! =,$$! 9*! C#**:$! =,*F!+#-9$D$,!,$'$+-<1$!:*0,C$!9#$2!C#**:$!9*!F$$9!9#$!:9-'(-,(;!

"#$! =$($,-1! M,*(0C9&*'! 9-.! C,$(&9! &:! 9#$! M,&F-,2!F$-':!0:$(! <2! 9#$!=$($,-1! ?*D$,'F$'9! 9*! $'C*0,-?$! +&'(! -'(! *9#$,! ,$'$+-<1$! M*+$,!($D$1*MF$'9;!%&'(!M*+$,!#-:!?-&'$(!:&?'&=&C-'9!?,*0'(!-:!-!,$:019!*=!9#$:$!M*1&C2!$'C*0,-?$F$'9:!&'!M-,9!<$C-0:$!&9!&:!-!C#$-M!-'(!:C-1-<1$!,$'$+-<1$!$'$,?2!:*0,C$!U:$$!>&?0,$!AAA[@V;!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 Over the past 3 years, U.S. electricity demand has averaged 421 GW per hour. (Energy, Retail Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers)!

14

K,2L4&'HHHMR)'IJ0J'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./'#/9'6,/9'"L4$,/&';#3#N,<O(!!

!

I$9+$$'! 6773! -'(! 67375! +&'(! 90,<&'$! C-M-C&92! &'C,$-:$(! <2! KQQh!=,*F!@543K!S%!9*!@Y544K!S%;!PC90-1!?$'$,-9&*'!=,*F!+&'(!90,<&'$:!&'C,$-:$(!(0,&'?!9#$!M-:9!($C-($!=,*F!Y5H@H!R%#!&'!6773!9*!H75HY3!R%#! &'! 6774;! "#$! -CC$1$,-9&*'! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! C-M-C&92!($D$1*MF$'9!&'!677G[677H!,$=1$C9$(!M-::-?$!*=!9#$!=$($,-1!),*(0C9&*'!"-.!E0<:&(2!-'(!T)E!&'!8W5!À5!SL5!Zk5!TA5!L85!ZS!-'(!LB!&'!-((&9&*'!9*!F-i*,! T)E! ,$D&:&*':! &'! ZS5! 8"5! SZ5! Z/5! ZN5! "X5! )P5! 8P! -'(! Pl;!"-<1$!XA[6!&'!9#$!-MM$'(&.!C-M90,$:!9#$!T)E!$'-C9$(!<2!$-C#!:9-9$;!!

>0,9#$,! $.M-':&*'! -'(! 09&1&d-9&*'! *=! +&'(! M*+$,! C*'9&'0$:! 9*! <$! -!:&?'&=&C-'9! C*FM*'$'9! *=! F*:9! $'$,?2! M*1&C2! ($<-9$:;! E9-9$:! -,$!M0:#&'?! T)E! 1$D$1:! 9*! '$+! #$&?#9:! U8-1&=*,'&-! ,$C$'912! &'C,$-:$(! &9:!?*-1! 9*!@@h!<2!6767V5!-'(!];E;! 1$?&:1-9*,:!-'(!M*1&C2F-J$,:!C*'9&'0$!9*! (&:C0::! -! '-9&*'-1! T)E! +#&C#! +*01(! ,$b0&,$! $-C#! :9-9$! 9*! F$$9!,$'$+-<1$!$'$,?2!?*-1:;!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(! (Energy, Electric Power Monthly 2009 - Monthly Data Tables), (Energy, Electric Power Annual 2008 - State Data Tables)

"

#

$"

$#

%"

%#

&"

&#

'"

!(

!%)"""

!')"""

!*)"""

!+)"""

!$")"""

!$%)"""

,-.("$

/01("$

2-3("%

,-.("&

/01("&

2-3("'

,-.("#

/01("#

2-3("*

,-.("4

/01("4

2-3("+

,-.("5

/01("5

2-3($"

!"#

!"$#

6.78-990:!;<.:!=-1-><83

;<.:!?0.0@-8<A.

15

IV. Studies Question the Assumptions Underlying Wind Energy s Policy Appeal $

$

/"'&01#2$'##(#($3*$231(4$3"#$&56-/32$*7$+&'($ &'3#8,-3&*'$ -'($ &56,*9#($ +&'($ 26##($ 7*,#/-23&'8$

:;$ $!"*5-2$<=$>5?@#,A$B)$C*55#,/&-@$D62A$E/#@$F'#,84$

"#$!-110,$!*=!+&'(!$'$,?2!#-:!<$$'!1-,?$12!(,&D$'!<2!9#$!<$1&$=!9#-9!9#$!,$:*0,C$! *==$,:! $F&::&*':[=,$$! $1$C9,&C&92;! P1*'$5! 9#$! ,$:*0,C$!M,*(0C$:! '*! $F&::&*':! +#$'! ?$'$,-9&'?! -! 0'&9! *=! $1$C9,&C&92;! A9! +-:!9#*0?#9! 9#-9! &'9,*(0C&'?! 9#&:! ,$:*0,C$! +*01(! (,-F-9&C-112! ,$(0C$!$F&::&*':! =,*F! 9,-(&9&*'-1! 9#$,F-1! ,$:*0,C$:! UC*-15! *&1! -'(! '-90,-1!?-:V;! `*+$D$,5! +#$'! &'9$?,-9$(! &'9*! -! :2:9$F! *=! *9#$,! ,$:*0,C$:5!+#&C#!-,$! =*,C$(! 9*! ,$-C9! 9*! 9#$!D-,&-<&1&92!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'5!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! C,$-9$:! :9,$::$:! *'! *9#$,! 0'&9:! 9#-9! (&,$C912! ,$(0C$! 9#$!$==&C&$'C2!*=!*M$,-9&*';!!

),$D&*0:!,$:$-,C#!*'!&'9$?,-9&'?!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'9*!9#$!M*+$,!?,&(!0:$(! $F&::&*':! $:9&F-9$:! <-:$(! *'! 9#$! -D$,-?$! C*FM*:&9&*'! *=! ];E;!M*+$,!?$'$,-9&*'!<2!=0$1!92M$;!"#$!];E;!M*+$,!?$'$,-9&*'!F&.!&'!6737!,$:019$(!&'!Q;3!1<:!*=!EW

65!3;H!1<:!*=!ZW.

!-'(!7;4!9*':!*=!8W

6!=*,!-!?&D$'!

S%#! *=! ?$'$,-9&*';! "#$! F*($1:! 9#-9! +$,$! 0:$(! -::0F$(! 9#-9!&'9,*(0C&'?! 3! S%#! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! 9*! 9#$! :2:9$F! +*01(!-CC*,(&'?12!,$(0C$!$F&::&*':!<2!9#$:$!-F*0'9:;!

*D$,:9-9$:! 9#$! -C90-1!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!,-9$:!*=!+&'(5!1-,?$12!(0$!9*!9#$!=-C9*,:!*091&'$(!&'!8#-M9$,!NAA;!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!13 (Rebuttal Testimony and Exhibits of Thomas A. Imbler on Behalf of Public Service Company of Colorado, 2008)

16

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

!5! 3;7G! 1<:;! *=!ZW

X! -'(!7;H4! 9*':! *=!8W

6! M$,!S%#!*=!+&'(!

?$' +-:!<-:$(!*'! 9#$! -::0FM9&*'! 9#-9!9#$! -D$,-?$! $F&::&*':! =,*F! 9#$! M*+$,! M1-'9:! 9#-9! +$,$! 90,'$(! *==!(0,&'?!+&'(!M*+$,!$D$'9:!+$,$!$1&F&'-9$(;!

P:!*091&'$(!&'!8#-M9$,!NAA5!9#&:!-MM,*-C#!(*$:!'*9!C-M90,$!9#$!-C90-1!$F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! *'! 9#$! :2:9$F;! "#$! $==&C&$'C2! *=! ?$'$,-9&*'! 0'&9:!($?,-($:!-:!9#$!0'&9:!-,$!C2C1$(!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!=*,!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!^&&J! $9! -1;! U^&&J5! 677@V! :0MM*,9:! 9#&:! C*'C10:&*'5! =&'(&'?! 9#-9!-CC*FF*(-9&'?! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &:! $F&::&*':[&'9$':&D$! (0$! 9*! 9#$!'$$(!9*!C2C1$!9,-(&9&*'-1!?$'$,-9&*'!,$:*0,C$:;!

"+*! M-M$,:! ,$C$'912! M0<1&:#$(! =0,9#$,! :0MM*,9! 9#&:! C*'C10:&*';! W'$!M-M$,!<2!8-11-+-2!-'(!>*+1&$!U8-11-+-25!6774V!-'(!-'*9#$,!,$M*,9!<2!Z*D-'! UZ*D-'5! 6737V! =&'(! 9#-9! -::0F&'?! -'! -D$,-?$! $F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*'! ,-9$! &:! '*9! :0==&C&$'9! 9*! -CC0,-9$12! C-M90,$! $F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*'!9#,*0?#!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!P((&9&*'-1125!<*9#!M-M$,:!&($'9&=2!9#-9!09&1&d&'?!(&:M-9C#!F*($1:! 9*!-::0F$!+#&C#!0'&9:!+*01(! ,$-C9! 9*!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &:! &':0==&C&$'9! 9*! $:9&F-9$! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'[(,&D$'!$F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*':;!!

P!+&($12!(&:9,&<09$(!-'(!09&1&d$(!M-M$,!=,*F!9#$!Z-9&*'-1!T$'$+-<1$!5!

C*FF&::&*'$(! <2! 9#$! L$M-,9F$'9! *=! B'$,?2! ULWBV5! =*0'(! 9#-9!?$'$,-9&*'! :2:9$F:! C*01(! 9$C#'&C-112! :0MM*,9! 9#$! &'9$?,-9&*'! *=! @7h!+&'(! -'(! Gh! :*1-,;! "#$! ZTB^! -'-12:&:! (*$:! '*9! $.-F&'$! 9#$! -C90-1!*M$,-9&'?! -<&1&9&$:! *=! M*+$,! M1-'9:! &'! 9#$! =**9M,&'9! -,$-! U6=$ ;:G$ *7$%%>HV;3Q!A'=*,F-9&*'!&'C10(&'?!9#$!-C90-1!F-.&F0F!?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!UC-M-C&92V5!=0$1!92M$5!M1-'9!1*C-9&*'!-'(!9,-':F&::&*'!+$,$!'*9!M-,9!*=!9#$!-'-12:&:;!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!14 (National Renewable Energy Lab, 2010)

17

"#$!-'-12:&:!-::0F$(!9#-9!-11!C*-15!?-:5!*&15!'0C1$-,!-'(!#2(,*!M1-'9:!*M$,-9$! &'! 9#$! :-F$!+-2! &'! 9#$! =**9M,&'9;! AFM1&C&9125! 9#&:!-::0FM9&*'!-1:*! F$-'9! 9#-9! ZTB^! 09&1&d$(! (&:M-9C#! F*($1:! =*,! &9:! -'-12:&:5! -!C*'C$,'!9#-9!<*9#!8-11-+-2!U8-11-+-25!6774V!-'(!Z*D-'!UZ*D-'5!6737V!'*9$!&'!9#$&,!,$:M$C9&D$!:90(&$:;!!

"#$!-'-12:&:!&'!9#&:!,$M*,9!-((,$::$:!9#$!=&'(&'?:!=,*F!9#$:$!:90(&$:!-'(!*9#$,:;! A9! ,$1&$:!*'!09&1&d&'?!-C90-1!#*0,12!(-9-!M*&'9:! =,*F!$-C#!,$?&*'!=*,!$D$,2!#*0,!*=!M*+$,!M1-'9!*M$,-9&*';!"#&:!-MM,*-C#!-D*&(:!-::0FM9&*':! -::*C&-9$(! +&9#! (&:M-9C#! F*($1:! -'(! -D*&(:! 0:&'?!-D$,-?$!$F&::&*':!,-9$:;!!

!

18

V. Cycling $

$

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

= :K$J$<63#/"$$

"#$! b0*9$! =,*F! -! :90(2! <2! PM9$C#5! -'! $'?&'$$,&'?! C*':019-'C2!+*,J&'?! =*,! XC$1! B'$,?25! ($:C,&<$:! -! M#$'*F$'*'! 9#-9! &:! C,&9&C-1! 9*!0'($,:9-'(&'?! 9#$! 9,0$! &FM-C9!*'!$F&::&*':! =,*F!+&'(!$'$,?2;!"#&:!M#$'*F$'*'!9*!(-9$!#-:!<$$'! 1-,?$12!F&::&'?! =,*F!+&'(! &'9$?,-9&*'!:90(&$:;!!

"#$!PM9$C#!:90(&$:!-99$FM9$(!9*!$:9&F-9$!9#$!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!=,*F!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'5! <09! *D$,1**J$(! *,! F-($! -::0FM9&*':! ,$?-,(&'?!&::0$:! ,$1-9$(! 9*!C2C1&'?;!"#$! :90(&$:!?$'$,-112! -::0F$(! 9#-9!'-90,-1!?-:! +*01(! -<:*,<! 9#$! D*1-9&1&92! =,*F! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'c! '-90,-1! ?-:!90,<&'$:!+$,$!-::0F$(!9*!<$!9#$!M,&'C&M-1!<-CJ0M!M*+$,!:*0,C$!0:$(!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!+&'(!$'$,?2;!

A'! =-C95! (-9-! =,*F! BT8W"! ,$D$-1:! 9#-9! C*-1! 0'&9:! -1:*! -,$! =,$b0$'912!C2C1$(! 9*! -CC*FF*(-9$! +&'(;! >&?0,$! N[3! ($9-&1:! 9*9-1! ?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09! <2! =0$1! :*0,C$! &'! 9#$! BT8W"! *M$,-9&'?! -,$-! *'! -! 3G[F&'09$!<-:&:! *D$,! -! :$D$'[(-2! M$,&*(;! "#$! M0,M1$! -,$-! ($M&C9:! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!"#$!9*9-1!*=!?$'$,-9&*'!=,*F!-11!:*0,C$:!$b0-1:!($F-'(!&'!BT8W";!>&?0,$!N[3!&'(&C-9$:!9#-95!=*,!9#$!F*:9!M-,95!+&'(!<1*+:!&'!9#$!$-,12! F*,'&'?! #*0,:! +#$'! 9*9-1! ($F-'(! &:! 1*+! U&'(&C-9$(! <2! 9#$!C&,C1$:V;!>&?0,$!N[3!-1:*!:#*+:!9#-9!+#$'!9#$!+&'(!<1*+:!&'!9#$:$!$-,12!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!15 (Aptech)

19

F*,'&'?! #*0,:5! C*-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! -'(! '-90,-1! ?-:! ?$'$,-9&*'! -,$!,$(0C$(!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!+&'(;!"#$!:0(($'!0M!*,!(*+'!=10C90-9&*'!&'!

9#&:!,$M*,9;!!

K,2L4&'TM()'*>;="'S&/&4#<,./'0<#NU'B.1J'V)(!W'!XXY!

!

"#$!C2C1&'?!*=!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*'!:#*+'!&'!>&?0,$!N[3!=,$b0$'912!*CC0,:!&'!BT8W"!-'(!&:!($=&'$(!b0-'9&9-9&D$12!-:!-!M$,&*(!(0,&'?!+#&C#!9*9-1!C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!($C1&'$:!<2!F*,$!9#-'!Gh!#*0,[*D$,[#*0,!-9! 9#$! <$?&''&'?! *=! 9#$:$! $D$'9:! -'(! C1&F<:! <2!F*,$! 9#-'! Gh! #*0,[*D$,[#*0,! -9! 9#$! $'(! *=! 9#$:$! $D$'9:;! E$D$,-1! F*,$! C#-,9:! :#*+&'?!-((&9&*'-1! $.-FM1$:! *=! 9#&:! 92M$! *=! C2C1&'?! -,$! M,$:$'9$(! &'! 9#$!PMM$'(&.!0'($,!>&?0,$!XA[3;!!

`&:9*,&C-1125!C*-1!M1-'9:!+$,$!($:&?'$(!9*!:$,D$!-:!<-:$1*-(!?$'$,-9&*'!M1-'9:5! *M$,-9&'?! F*:9! $==&C&$'912! +#$'! ,0'! -9! -! ,$1-9&D$12! C*':9-'9!#&?#!09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$!U?$'$,-112!?,$-9$,!9#-'!H7hV;!A'!BT8W"5!#*+$D$,5!9#$! =,$b0$'C2! -'(! F-?'&90($! *=! C2C1&'?! #-:! &'C,$-:$(! (,-F-9&C-112!+&9#!9#$!&'C*,M*,-9&*'!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!8*-1!C2C1&'?!$D$'9:!(0$!9*!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &'! BT8W"!-,$! b0-'9&=&$(!<2! &($'9&=2&'?! &':9-'C$:! &'!+#&C#!9*9-1!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!C#-'?$(!F*,$!9#-'!Gh!C*&'C&($'9!+&9#! -! :&F&1-,! C#-'?$! &'! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! >&?0,$! N[6! C*FM-,$:! 9#$!?,*+9#!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92!&'!BT8W"!-'(!9#$!'0F<$,!*=!C*-1!C2C1&'?!&':9-'C$:!<-:$(!*'!9#$!Gh!9#,$:#*1(;!I$?&''&'?!&'!677Y!+#$'!

20

+&'(!C-M-C&92!,$-C#$(!9#$!Q5777!S%!1$D$15!C2C1&'?!*=!C*-1!0'&9:!:M&J$(!0M+-,(!-'(!#-:!C*'9&'0$(!9*!&'C,$-:$;!

K,2L4&'TM!)'*>;="'6,/9';#3#N,<O'Z';.#%';ON%,/2'*1&/<-!

!

PM9$C#!M$,=*,F$(!-'!-'-12:&:!*=!C2C1&'?!=*,!XC$1!B'$,?2;! A9:!=&'(&'?:!+$,$!:&F&1-,!9*! ! %#$'!:&?'&=&C-'9!-F*0'9:!*=! 0'F-'-?$(! +&'([?$'$,-9$(! $1$C9,&C&92! -,$! &'9,*(0C$(! &'9*! 9#$!

3Y !PM9$C#!:9-9$(;!

P:! +&'(! C-M-C&92! &'C,$-:$(! &'! BT8W"! <$9+$$'! 677@! -'(! 677H5! 9#$!-F*0'9!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!+-:!'*9!:&?'&=&C-'9!$'*0?#!9*!(&M!&'9*!9#$!C*-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! :9-CJ! -9! '&?#9;! `*+$D$,5! -:! +&'(! 90,<&'$! C-M-C&92!:0,M-::$(! ,*0?#12! G5777! S%5! 9#$! &':9-'C$:! *=! C*-1! C2C1&'?! $D$'9:!&'C,$-:$(!'$-,12!Q77h!=,*F!677H!9*!6774;!P:!F*,$!+&'(!&:!-(($(!9*!9#$!:2:9$F5!C*-1!C2C1&'?!&':9-'C$:!+&11!1&J$12!&'C,$-:$!=0,9#$,;!!

BT8W"!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*'!&:!C2C1$(!&'!,$:M*':$!9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!(0$!9*!9#$! &'#$,$'9! '-90,$! *=! +&'(! M-99$,':! &'! 9#$! -,$-;! %&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!,$-C#$:!M$-J!*09M09!(0,&'?!$-,12!F*,'&'?!#*0,:5!-:!($9-&1$(!&'!>&?0,$!N[@;!!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!16 (Aptech)

%

&%%

'%%

(%%

)%%

*%%

+%%

,%%

-%%

%

&.%%%

'.%%%

(.%%%

).%%%

*.%%%

+.%%%

,.%%%

-.%%%

/.%%%

&%.%%%

'%%( '%%) '%%* '%%+ '%%, '%%- '%%/

0#12#345678

9#:;<8

=>#

?"#12#3

@A@57=4

#"78B#3@A@57=4

31@6#3456789#:;<8=>

21

K,2L4&'TMR)'G1&4#2&'[.L4%O'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./'Z'P.#9',/'*>;="W'!XXQ(\!

!

W'! -D$,-?$5! 9#$,$! &:! -! '$-,12! @Gh!($C1&'$! &'!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!=,*F!9#$!'&?#9!#*0,:!9*!9#$!F&((1$!*=!9#$!(-2;!P:!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&:!,$-C#&'?! M$-J! *09M095! 9*9-1! 1*-(! &'! BT8W"! &:! ($C1&'&'?! 9*! &9:! 1*+$:9!1$D$1:;! "#$! Z$9! ^*-(! 1&'$! &'! >&?0,$! N[@! ,$M,$:$'9:! 9*9-1! 1*-(! '$9! *=!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! *09M095! C-M90,&'?! 9#$! ($F-'(! 1$D$1! 9#-9! 9#$!,$F-&'&'?!=0$1!:*0,C$:!-,$!,$b0&,$(!9*!=01=&11;!!

%&'(! &'9$?,-9&*'! :90(&$:! -::0F$! 9#-9! '-90,-1! ?-:! 0'&9:! +&11! <$! 9#$!M,&F-,2! ?$'$,-9&*'! 0:$(! 9*! -<:*,<! 9#$! C#-'?$:! &'! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09;! A'! C*'9,-:9! 9*! :9-'(-,(! C*-1[=&,$(! <-:$1*-(! 0'&9:5! ?-:[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'! 0'&9:! -,$! ($:&?'$(! 9*! F$$9! 0'M,$(&C9-<1$! -'(! D-,&$(!($F-'(;!

`*+$D$,5! -9! '&?#9! &'! BT8W"!+#$'! 9#$!+&'(! <1*+:5! <*9#! '-90,-1! ?-:!C*F<&'$(!C2C1$!-'(!C*F<0:9&*'!90,<&'$!0'&9:!-,$!-1,$-(2!-9!,$1-9&D$12!1*+! ?$'$,-9&*'! 1$D$1:! <$C-0:$! 9#$2! -,$! ,$1-9&D$12! F*,$! $.M$':&D$! 9*!*M$,-9$!9#-'!C*-1!-'(!'0C1$-,!M1-'9:;!A'!F-'2!C-:$:5!-'(!$:M$C&-112!&'!9#$!:#*01($,!:$-:*'5!'-90,-1!?-:!?$'$,-9&*'!:*0,C$:!-,$!*M$,-9&'?!-9!1$D$1:!<$1*+!+#&C#!9#$2!C-''*9!<$!(&:M-9C#$(!+&9#*09!D&*1-9&'?!:2:9$F!,$1&-<&1&92! :9-'(-,(:;! P((&9&*'-1125! 9,-':F&::&*'! C*':9,-&'9:! *=9$'!&FM-C9!9#$!0'&9:!9#-9!+&11!<$!C2C1$(;!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!17 (ERCOT)

!(

!#)"""

!$")"""

!$#)"""

!%")"""

!%#)"""

!&")"""

!&#)"""

!'")"""

!'#)"""

!(

!#""

!$)"""

!$)#""

!%)"""

!%)#""

!&)"""

" $ % & ' # * 4 + 5 $"$$$%$&$'$#$*$4$+$5%"%$%%%&

C1@B

#?"$#

"78B#?"$#

D1EF#

;<.:!?0.0@-8<A.

BA-:

C08!BA-:

22

P:!:#*+'!&'!>&?0,$!N[35!&'!BT8W"!<*9#!C*-1!-'(!?-:!0'&9:!-,$!C2C1$(!&'!*,($,! 9*! -CC*FF*(-9$! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! >&?0,$! N[Q! :#*+:! :&F&1-,!&'9$,-C9&*'! &'! SAEW! =*,! 9#$! =&,:9! $&?#9! (-2:! *=! PM,&1! 6774;! "#$!,$1-9&D$12!:F-11!M*,9&*'!*=!9*9-1!?$'$,-9&*'!M,*D&($(!<2!?-:!+-:!C2C1$(!(*+'! =*,! i0:9! *D$,! 9+*! (-2:! 9*! -CC*FF*(-9$! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'5! <09!$D$'! +&9#! 9#&:! ,$(0C9&*'5! C*-1! 0'&9:! #-(! 9*! <$! C2C1$(! -:! +$11;! 8*-1!?$'$,-9&*'! &'! SAEW! #-:! #&:9*,&C-112! <$$'! C2C1$(! &'! -! 1*-([=*11*+&'?!C-M-C&92c!9#$:$!C*-1!0'&9:!-,$!($:&?'$(!9*!1*-([=*11*+!F*,$!$==&C&$'912!9#-'!C*-1!0'&9:!&'!BT8W";!`*+$D$,5!9#$,F-1!0'&9:!+$,$!:9&11!C2C1$(!&'!*,($,!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!!

K,2L4&'TM])'5H0='S&/&4#<,./'0<#NUW'G34,%'()YW'!XXQ!

!

8*-1!C2C1&'?! &:!$D&($'9! &'! 9#$!I)P!9$,,&9*,2;! A'!C*'9,-:9!9*!SAEW5!?-:[=&,$(!-'(!#2(,*!?$'$,-9&*'!-CC*0'9:!=*,!-!F0C#!1-,?$,!M*,9&*'!*=!9#$!?$'$,-9&*'! F&.5! 37;Kh! -'(! QG;Gh! *'! -D$,-?$5! ,$:M$C9&D$12; 3K!PCC*,(&'?12!-:!:#*+'!&'!>&?0,$!N[G5!+#$'!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&:!-D-&1-<1$5!?-:[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!($C1&'$:;!Z$D$,9#$1$::5!-:!:#*+'!=*,!E$M9;!34!-'(!675!9#$,$!-,$!9&F$:!+#$'!9#$!D*10F$!*=!+&'(!,$b0&,$:!I)P!9*!C2C1$!&9:!C*-1[=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*';! %#&1$! 9#$! =0$1! C*':0FM9&*'! &FM-C9:! -,$!(&==$,$'95!(&:M-9C#&'?!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!,$b0&,$:!9#$,F-1!-::$9:!9*!C2C1$!&'!-11!*=!9#$!-,$-:!:90(&$(;!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!18 (BPA, 2009)

23

K,2L4&'TMV)'EFG'S&/&4#<,./'0<#NUW'0&3<&+$&4'(\)!RW'!XXQ!

!

!

!

24

VI. Impacts of Cycling $

$

-'($ #5&22&*'2$ ,#(1/3&*'$ &'$ 3"#$ 6*+#,$ 2423#52$ /*'2&23&'8$5-&'@4$*7$3"#,5-@$6*+#,$6@-'32$-,#$'*3$6,*6*,3&*'-@$+&3"$3"#$#@#/3,&/&34$6,*(1/3&*'$*7$+&'($31,?&'#2=$)-,3&/&6-3&*'$*7$3"#,5-@$ 6*+#,$ 6@-'32$ &'$ 3"#$ /*56#'2-3&*'$ *7$ 7@1/31-3&'8$6,*(1/3&*'$ *7$ +&'(5&@@2$ #@&5&'-3#2$ -$ 5-L*,$ 6-,3$ *7$ 3"#$

:M$ $ N&&IA$ D&(,-5A$O##@$

%&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!=*,C$:!9#$,F-1!?$'$,-9&*'!0'&9:!9*!C2C1$5!F-J&'?!9#$!?$'$,-9&*'!:2:9$F!1$::!$'D&,*'F$'9-112!-'(!*M$,-9&*'-112!$==&C&$'9;!P11!$1$C9,&C&92!?$'$,-9&*'!=-C&1&9&$:!-,$!($:&?'$(!+&9#!-'!-<&1&92!9*!&'C,$-:$!-'(! ($C,$-:$! ?$'$,-9&*'! *09M09;! "#$! ,-9$! -9! +#&C#! *M$,-9*,:! C-'!&'C,$-:$! *,! ($C,$-:$! ?$'$,-9&*'! =,*F! -! :M$C&=&C! 0'&9! &:! C-11$(! 9#$!

M1-'9! ,-FM! ,-9$:! -,$! ,$1-9&D$12! 1-,?$5!F*,$! 9#-'!K7h! *=! C-M-C&92! M$,!#*0,;!8*-1!0'&9!,-FM!,-9$:!-,$!,$1-9&D$12!1*+5!'$-,!67h!*=!C-M-C&92!M$,!#*0,;!WM9&F-1!*M$,-9&*'!*=!9#$!0'&9:! ,$b0&,$:!9#-9!9#$!*M$,-9*,!J$$M!9#$! C2C1&'?! &FM-C9:!+$11!+&9#&'! 9#$! ,-FM! ,-9$! :M$C&=&C-9&*':! *=! $-C#!0'&9;!

"*! 0'($,:9-'(! 9#$! &FM-C9! *=! C2C1&'?5! 9#&'J! *=! -'! -09*F*<&1$;! P! C-,!*<9-&':!*M9&F-1!?-:!F&1$-?$!+#$'!&9!&:!*M$,-9$(!-9!-!C*':&:9$'9!:M$$(;!%#$'!-!C-,!$'9$,:!:9*M[-'([?*!9,-==&C5!C*F<0:9&*'!$==&C&$'C2!-'(!=0$1!0:$!$==&C&$'C2!($C,$-:$:;!"#$,F-1!M*+$,!M1-'9:!*M$,-9$!:&F&1-,12;!

"#$! &FM-C9:! *=! :9*M[-'([?*! *M$,-9&*'! -,$! F*,$! :&?'&=&C-'9! -9! C*-1!=-C&1&9&$:! 9#-'! -9! '-90,-1! ?-:! =-C&1&9&$:;! I$C-0:$! F*:9! '-90,-1! ?-:!C*F<&'$(! C2C1$! -'(! C*F<0:9&*'! 90,<&'$! 0'&9:! -,$! ($:&?'$(! 9*!-CC*FF*(-9$! C2C1&'?5! 9#$! $==&C&$'C2! ($?,-(-9&*'! *'! 9#$:$! 0'&9:! &:!F&9&?-9$(;! `*+$D$,5! C*-1! =-C&1&9&$:! #-D$! 92M&C-112! <$$'! ($:&?'$(! -:!<-:$1*-(! ?$'$,-9*,:! -'(! -,$! '*9! ($:&?'$(! 9*! -CC*FF*(-9$! D-,&-<1$!?$'$,-9&*'! ,$b0&,$F$'9:;! 8#-'?&'?! 9#$! +-2! C*-1! M1-'9:! *M$,-9$! &'!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!19 (O. Liik, 2003)

25

*,($,! 9*! -CC*FF*(-9$! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! #-:! 9#$! :&F&1-,! $==&C&$'C2!&FM-C9!$.M$,&$'C$(!+#$'!*M$,-9&'?!-!C-,!*'!9#$!#&?#+-2!D$,:0:!-!C-,!&'!9#$!C&92;!A'!9#$!C&925!F*,$!=0$1!&:!C*':0F$(!M$,!0'&9!*=!*09M095!-'(!9#$,$=*,$5!$==&C&$'C2!($C1&'$:;!82C1&'?!9#$,F-1!=-C&1&9&$:!&'!,$:M*':$!9*!:9*C#-:9&C! D-,&-9&*'! &'! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! ($C,$-:$:! 9#$! $==&C&$'C2! *=!9#$:$!=-C&1&9&$:;!!

"#$! $==&C&$'C2! ($?,-(-9&*'! (0$! 9*! C2C1&'?! &:! +&($:M,$-(! -C,*::!9#$,F-1! =-C&1&9&$:! &'! -,$-:! +#$,$! :&?'&=&C-'9! -F*0'9:! *=! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! -,$! &'9$?,-9$(;! >&?0,$! NA[3! <$1*+! C-M90,$:! 9#$! ?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!-'(!#$-9!,-9$!*=!9#$!R&<<*':!8,$$J!C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!M1-'9!&'!"$.-:!(0,&'?!/-'0-,2!6774;!!

K,2L4&'THM()'S,$$./-';4&&U'0<&#+'*%&N<4,N'0<#<,./'?*>;="AW'^#/L#4O'Y)QW'!XXQ!

!!%#$'! 9#$! =-C&1&92! +-:! C2C1$(! U?$'$,-9&*'! :0(($'12! =$11V! &'! *,($,! 9*!-<:*,<! C#-'?$:! &'!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'5! 9#$!#$-9! ,-9$! USSI90:!*=! $'$,?2!C*':0F$(!M$,!#*0,!(&D&($(!<2!9#$!S%:!M,*(0C$(V!&'C,$-:$(!<2!F*,$!9#-'! 67h;! "#$! ,&:&'?! #$-9! ,-9$! '$?-9&D$12! &FM-C9:! $F&::&*':! ,-9$:;!>&?0,$!NA[6!C-M90,$:!9#$!C#-'?$:!&'!$F&::&*':!,-9$:!-9! 9#$!M1-'9!*D$,!9#$! :-F$! 9&F$=,-F$;! EW

!5! ZW

X! -'(!8W

!! $F&::&*':! ,-9$:! -11! &'C,$-:$(!

(0,&'?!9#$!+&'(!$D$'9!<$C-0:$!9#$!#$-9!,-9$!-9!9#$!M1-'9!C#-'?$(;!!

26

K,2L4&'THM!)'S,$$./-';4&&U'0<&#+'*%&N<4,N'0<#<,./'?*>;="AW'^#/L#4O'Y)QW'!XXQ'*+,--,./-'>#<&-!

!

82C1&'?!*=!C*-1!=-C&1&9&$:!C-'!C-0:$!-!:$C*'(5!F*,$!:&?'&=&C-'9!92M$!*=!&'$==&C&$'C2!9*!*CC0,;!"#$!=*11*+&'?!$.-FM1$!&:!:*0,C$(!=,*F!9,-&'&'?!F-9$,&-1:!(&:9,&<09$(!&'9$,'-112!-9!)E8*5!-!:0<:&(&-,2!*=!XC$1!B'$,?25!9*!&'=*,F! (&:M-9C#$,:! *=! M*9$'9&-1! #-d-,(:! -::*C&-9$(! +&9#! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*';! >&?0,$! NA[@! &:! -! :'-M:#*9! *=! *'$!+#$'!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-(D$,:$12!&FM-C9$(!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*';!!

K,2L4&'THMR)'6,/9'*1&/<'./'F0;.'0O-<&+'?^L%O'!W'!XXYA!

!

27

W'!/012!65!677K5!(0,&'?! 9#$!F*,'&'?!#*0,:5!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!,-FM$(!0M!=,*F!3G7!S%#!*=!*09M09!9*!K77!S%#!*=!*09M09! &'! 1$::! 9#-'!9+*!#*0,:;!"2M&C-112!*M$,-9*,:!(&:M-9C#!0'&9:!<-:$(!*'!C*:9!*=!*M$,-9&*'c!F*,$! $.M$':&D$! 0'&9:! -,$! (&:M-9C#$(! (*+'! <$=*,$! 1$::! $.M$':&D$!0'&9:;!`*+$D$,5! #!-!1*+!1$D$1!9#-9! &9!C*01(!'*9!<$!,$(0C$(!+&9#*09!:-C,&=&C&'?!,$1&-<&1&92! !9,-':F&::&*'!1&F&9:!-1:*!-,$!-!1&F&9&'?!=-C9*,!=*,!-D-&1-<&1&92!*=!0'&9:!9*!F$$9! C#-'?$:! &'!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';!8*':$b0$'9125! )E8*!+-:! =*,C$(! 9*!,$(0C$!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*'!=,*F!65G77!S%#!9*!35K77!S%#!&'!-!D$,2!:#*,9!9&F$=,-F$;! P:! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! (,*MM$(! 9*! ,*0?#12! 3G7! S%#! <2! K!-;F;5! C*-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! +-:! ,-FM$(! <-CJ! 0M! 9*! 65G77! S%#! 9*! F$$9!

!

R$'$,-9&*'! -9! :$D$,-1! C*-1! M1-'9:! +-:! ,$(0C$(! &'! *,($,! 9*!-CC*FF*(-9$! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! *'! 9#$! :2:9$F;! "#$! #*0,[9*[#*0,!C#-'?$!*=!?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!-9!9#$!=-C&1&9&$:!*M$,-9$(!<2!)E8*!*'!/012!65!677K5!&:!C-M90,$(!&'!>&?0,$!NA[Q;!

K,2L4&'THM])'[.L4M<.M[.L4';7#/2&',/'S&/&4#<,./'!?^L%O'!W'!XXYA!

!

"#$!8#$,*J$$5!8*F-'C#$!-'(!)-+'$$!C*-1!=-C&1&9&$:!M,*D&($(!9#$!F*:9!=1$.&<&1&92! =*,! )E8*! *'! /012! 65! 677K;! 8*FM1&C-9&*':! -,*:$! -9! 9#$!8#$,*J$$!=-C&1&92!#*0,:!-=9$,!9#$!C2C1&'?!$D$'95!M,*<1$F:!-99,&<09$(!9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!U9#$!0'&9!+*01(!'*9!#-D$!C2C1$(!#-(!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!'*9! <$$'! M,$:$'9V;! >&?0,$! NA[G! C-M90,$:! $F&::&*':! -'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!-9!8#$,*J$$!*'!/012!65!677K;!

28

K,2L4&'THMV)'*+,--,./-'#/9'S&/&4#<,./'=L<3L<'#<';7&4.U&&'./'\@!@!XXY!

!

I$9+$$'!9#$!#*0,:!*=!6!-;F;!-'(!H!-;F;!?$'$,-9&*'!*09M09!-9!8#$,*J$$!+-:! *==:$9! <2! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! "#$,$! -,$! -::*C&-9$(! =0$1! -'(!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!+&9#! 9#$! 1*+$,! 1$D$1!*=!?$'$,-9&*'! 9#,*0?#*09! 9#&:!9&F$=,-F$5!-:!&'(&C-9$(!<2!9#$!(&M:!&'!ZW

X5!EW

!!-'(!8W

!!&'!>&?0,$!NA[G;!

`*+$D$,5!C*FM1&C-9&*':!-9!9#$!=-C&1&92!=*,!#*0,:!-=9$,!9#$!C2C1&'?!$D$'9!'$?-9$(! -'2! EW

!! -'(! ZW

X! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:;! A'! =-C95! EW

!! -'(! ZW

X!

$F&::&*':!$'($(!0M!#&?#$,!=*,!9#$!(-2!<$C-0:$!9#$!0'&9!+-:!C2C1$(!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!

P=9$,! 9#$! C2C1&'?! $D$'95! ?$'$,-9&*'! 1$D$1:! -9! 8#$,*J$$! :$991$(! -9!,*0?#12!H67!S%#5!Hh!#&?#$,!9#-'!M,&*,!9*!9#$!C2C1&'?!$D$'9;!`*+$D$,5!ZW

X! 1$D$1:! &'C,$-:$(! 37h! -=9$,! 9#$! C2C1&'?! $D$'9! -'(! EW

!'1$D$1:!

&'C,$-:$(!47h;!8W!!$F&::&*':!,$F-&'$(!:9$-(2!-=9$,!9#$!C2C1&'?!$D$'9;!

"#$:$! 92M$:! *=! $D$'9:! F0:9! <$! -CC*0'9$(! =*,! +#$'! b0-'9&=2&'?!$F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*':!(0$!9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!C*FM-,&'?!9#$F!9*!*9#$,! $'$,?2! :*0,C$:;! 8*FM1&C-9&*':! -,*:$! -9! 8#$,*J$$! *'! /012! 6;!B==*,9:!9*!<-1-'C$!9#$!<*&1$,:!0:&'?!'-90,-1!?-:!$'($(!0M!M10??&'?!EW

!!

,$(0C9&*'!0'&9:5! 9#$,$<2!$1&F&'-9&'?! 9#$&,! $==$C9&D$'$::;!T$M-&,:!+$,$!F-($! 9*! 9#$! 0'&9:5! <09! 9**J! F*:9! *=! 9#$! (-2! 9*! C*FM1$9$5! -'(!$F&::&*':!:M&J$(!(0,&'?!9#$!&'9$,&F!M$,&*(;!

82C1&'?! 9#$,F-1! =-C&1&9&$:! ($?,-($:! C*-1! M1-'9! $==&C&$'C2! -'(! 9#$!($?,-(-9&*'! +*,:$':! 0'($,! $.9,$F$! ,-FM! ,-9$! :C$'-,&*:;! P,9#0,!8-FM<$11!*=!SA"!($:C,&<$:!9#$!M#$'*F$'*'!-:!=*11*+:\!

"

$""

%""

&""

'""

#""

*""

4""

+""

%

&.%%%

'.%%%

(.%%%

).%%%

*.%%%

+.%%%

,.%%%

% & ' ( ) * + , - / &% && &' &( &) &* &+ &, &- &/ '% '& '' '(

?"$#

:G7>>71

8>#

/D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G ?0.0@-8<A.!E2;IG

29

*1'3#,9-&@&'8$ 7*,/#A$ +"&/"$ 5-4$ &'/,#-2#$ #5&22&*'2A$ -/32$3",*18"$ -$ /"-'8#$ &'$ 3"#$ #77&/&#'3$ P@#-23$ /*23Q$ 5&.$ *7$ '*'J,#'#+-?@#$ 8#'#,-3&*'$ +"#'$ +&'($ 6,*9&(#2$ -$ 7,-/3&*'$ *7$#@#/3,&/&34=$ >7$ 3"&2$ 5&.$ &'9*@9#2$ 5*,#$ RSR$ &'3#'2&9#$ 8#'#,-3&'8$3#/"'*@*8&#2$3"#'$3"&2$+&@@$-/3$3*$*772#3$3"#$#5&22&*'$8-&'2$(1#$3*$

TU$

W==:$99&'?! *'$! S%#! *=! ?$'$,-9&*'! -9! -! 9#$,F-1! =-C&1&92! +&9#! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! (*$:! '*9! ,$:019! &'! -'! $b0&D-1$'9! -F*0'9! *=! $F&::&*':!:-D&'?:! +#$'! C*FM-,$(! 9*! '*,F-15! *,! -D$,-?$5! $F&::&*':! ,-9$:! -9! -!M-,9&C01-,!:&9$!<$C-0:$!*=!9#$!:2:9$F!&'9$?,-9&*'!&'$==&C&$'C&$:!9#-9! &9!M,$C&M&9-9$:;!!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!20 (Campbell, 2008)

30

VII. The Wind Generation Paradox $

$

"-9#$ -$ 2&8'&7&/-'3$ &56-/3$ *'$ /-,?*'$ #5&22&*'2=$ !"#$F1,*6#-'$ #.6#,&#'/#$ &2$ &'23,1/3&9#=$ V#'5-,IA$ 3"#$ +*,@(W2$5*23$+&'(J&'3#'2&9#$'-3&*'$+&3"$5*,#$3"-'$XAUUU$31,?&'#2$8#'#,-3&'8$ :MY$ *7$ &32$ #@#/3,&/&34A$ "-2$ 4#3$ 3*$ /@*2#$ -$ 2&'8@#$7*22&@$ 71#@$ 6@-'3=$ >3$ ,#01&,#2$ KUY$ 5*,#$ /*-@J8#'#,-3#($#@#/3,&/&34$ 3*$ /*9#,$ +&'($ 6*+#,W2$ 1'6,#(&/3-?&@&34A$ -'($6*@@13&*'$-'($/-,?*'$(&*.&(#$#5&22&*'2$"-9#$,&2#'$P?4$;XY$

T: $!,#?&@/*/I$

%&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! C,$-9$:! -! M-,-(*.;!%&'(! <1*+:! '-90,-1125! -'(!C-0:$:!'*!8W

65!ZW

X5!EW

6!*,!-'2!*9#$,! =*,F!*=!M*1109&*'!$.C$M95!

*=! C*0,:$5! M-,9&C01-9$! M*1109&*'! &'! 9#$! =*,F! *=! (0:9;! A9! :$$F:!$'9&,$12! 1*?&C-1! 9#-95! &=! *'$! &?'*,$:! M*1109&*'! C,$-9$(! &'! 9#$!M,*C$::! *=! F-'0=-C90,&'?! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! $b0&MF$'95! -((&'?!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! 9*! -! M*+$,! ?$'$,-9&*'! :2:9$F! +*01(! ,$(0C$!:2:9$F[+&($! $F&::&*':! :&'C$! 9#$! M*1109-'9[$F&99&'?! C*-1! -'(!'-90,-1!?-:!0'&9:!+*01(!<$!,0'!1$::!*=9$';!!

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

Model Approach

"*! -::$::! 9#$! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! =,*F! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! IBZ"Bj!$:9&F-9$(! $F&::&*':! ,$(0C9&*':! (0$! 9*! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! 0:&'?! -!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!21 (Trebilcock, 2009)

31

F019&D-,&-9$!F*($1!9#-9!&'C*,M*,-9$:!#*0,12!-'(!M1-'9!:M$C&=&C!(-9-!*'!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'5! 9#$,F-1! M*+$,! ?$'$,-9&*'5! $F&::&*':! -'(!9$FM$,-90,$:;! "#$!F*($1! +-:! -MM1&$(! 9*! 9#$! 8PAEW5!SAEW5! I)P! -'(!BT8W"!*M$,-9&'?!-,$-:;!!

A'!*,($,!9*! &($'9&=2! 9#$!$F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*':!(0$!9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'! $-C#! *M$,-9&'?! -,$-5! 9#$! $.*?$'*0:5! :9*C#-:9&C! D-,&-9&*'! &'! +&'(!F0:9!<$!$.-F&'$(;!"#$!F*($1!<$1*+!C-M90,$:!9#$!:2:9$F-9&C!,$:M*':$!*=! 9#$,F-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! $F&::&*':! 9*! #*0,12! =10C90-9&*':! &'! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*';! "#$!F*($1! &:! (&:C0::$(! &'! ($9-&1! &'! 9#$! -MM$'(&.! 0'($,!Bb0-9&*'!3\!BF&::&*':!S*($1;!!

%%!"#$!F*($1!&($'9&=&$:!9#$!$F&::&*'!,$(0C9&*'!9#-9!,$:019:!=,*F!-((&'?!-'! &'C,$F$'9-1! S%#! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! 9*! 9#$! :2:9$F;! "#$! F*($1!&'C*,M*,-9$:! 9#$! C#-,-C9$,&:9&C:! *=! 9#$! -C90-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! :9-CJ! -'(!-::*C&-9$(!$F&::&*':5!1*C-1!9$FM$,-90,$:5!(-2!*=!9#$!+$$J5!F*'9#!-'(!2$-,;!!

! B

&,9!m!$F&::&*':!*=!M*1109-'9!&!&'!,$?&*'!,!-'(!9&F$!3!

P1M#-&,!m!C*':9-'9!,$?,$::&*'!9$,F!=*,!M*1109-'9!&!&'!,$?&*'!,!

I$9-&,! m! 9#$! C#-'?$! &'! $F&::&*':! (0$! 9*! -! S%#! C#-'?$! &'! +&'(!

?$'$,-9&*'!

%,9!m!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'!S%#!&'!,$?&*'!,!-9!9&F$!3!

",9!m!9$FM$,-90,$!&'!($?,$$:!>!&'!,$?&*'!,!-9!9&F$!3$P3"&2$&2$-$6,*.4$

7*,$(#5-'(Q!

$&,9!m!9#$!&(&*:2'C,-9&C!0'*<:$,D$(!$,,*,!9$,F!

X9!m!D$C9*,!*=!9&F$[C*'9,*11&'?!(0FF2!D-,&-<1$:5!,$M,$:$'9&'?!2$-,5!

F*'9#5!(-2!*=!+$$J!-'(!#*0,!

"#$! F*($1! ,$:019:! +$,$! :9-9&:9&C-112! :&?'&=&C-'9;! "-<1$! XA[@! &'! 9#$!-MM$'(&.!,$M*,9:!9#$!:0FF-,2!:9-9&:9&C:!*09M09!*=!$-C#!F*($1!-C,*::!9#$!<-1-'C&'?!-09#*,&9&$:!-'-12d$(!&'!9#&:!:90(2;!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!22 Equation 1: Emissions Model, discussed in the Appendix

32

Emission Reduction Findings

IBZ"Bj! $:9&F-9$(! $F&::&*'! :-D&'?:! =*,! 9#$! BT8W"5! I)P5!8PAEW! -'(!SAEW!-,$-:!=*,!677K[6737;!"#$!,$:019:!-,$!:#*+'!&'!>&?0,$!NAA[3!-'(!-,$! C*FM-,$(! 9*! 9#$! -::$,9$(! :-D&'?:! 9#-9! +*01(! ,$:019! =,*F! 0:&'?!+&'(! &'(0:9,2! $:9&F-9$:5! +#&C#! -,$! ?$'$,-112! -CC$M9$(! &'! 9#$! M*1&C2!C*FF0'&92;!!

K,2L4&'THHM()'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./'*+,--,./'0#1,/2-'3&4'567'$O'"&44,<.4O'1-J'G1&4#2&'IJ0J'F._&4'*+,--,./-!

!

%&'(!?$'$,-9&*'[(,&D$'!8W!!$F&::&*'!:-D&'?:!D-,2!=,*F!7;7K3!9*':!M$,!

S%#!&'!I)P!9*!3;76G!9*':!M$,!S%#!&'!SAEW;!ZWX!$F&::&*'!:-D&'?:!-,$!

<$9+$$'!7;3H!M*0'(:!M$,!S%`! 9*!3;44G!M*0'(:!M$,!S%#;! BF&::&*'!:-D&'?:!=*,!EW

!!,-'?$!=,*F!7;77K!M*0'(:!M$,!S%#!9*!Q;K4!M*0'(:!M$,!

S%#;!8*FM-,$(! 9*!+&'(! &'(0:9,2!$:9&F-9$:5! -C90-1!$F&::&*'!:-D&'?:!-,$!1$::!9#-'!$.M$C9$(;!!

>&?0,$!NAA[3!1$-(:!9*!9+*!*D$,-,C#&'?!C*'C10:&*':\!>&,:95!9#$!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:! 9#-9! ,$:019! =,*F! -((&'?! -'! &'C,$F$'9-1! S%#! *=! +&'(! D-,2!($M$'(&'?!*'! 9#$!M*+$,!:0MM12!C*FM*:&9&*'!*=! 9#$!:$,D&C$! 9$,,&9*,2;!E-D&'?:!-,$!#&?#$,!&'!9#$!SAEW!-,$-!+#$,$!C*-1!C*':9&909$:!-!D$,2!1-,?$!M*,9&*'! *=! 9#$! ?$'$,-9&*'! :9-CJ! U-MM,*.&F-9$12! K7hV;! 8*'D$,:$125! &'!-,$-:!+#$,$!C*-1!M1-2:!-!F&'&F-1!?$'$,-9&*'!,*1$!U8PAEW!-'(!I)PV!-'!&'C,$F$'9!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9$:!D$,2!'$?1&?&<1$!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:;!

'J5!

%J"!

$J"!$J%!"J4!

"J#!"J"! "J$!

"J&!"J$! "J%! "J$!

#J4!

%J&!

"J+!

'J$!

$J4!

"J5!

/D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G

26/D

KL=DM

=N6/D

OPN

N;KN!QJ/J!/-R<.S7!K78<T-80

NR0@-S0!QJ/J!PAU0@!KT<77<A.7

33

"#$! :$C*'(! F-i*,! C*'C10:&*'! &:! 9#-9! :-D&'?:! -,$! ,$1-9&D$12! :F-11!C*FM-,$(!9*!*9#$,!$:9&F-9$:!-'(!-CC$M9$(!M*1&C2!-::0FM9&*':;!P?-&'5!9#$!(&:M-,&92! &:! 1$::!M,*'*0'C$(! &'!-,$-:!:0C#!-:!SAEW!+#$,$!C*-1! &:!F*,$! M,$D-1$'95! <09! $D$'! &'! SAEW;! EW

!! :-D&'?:! -,$! 6@h! 1$::! 9#-'!

$:9&F-9$(! <2! 9#$! P%BP! -MM,*-C#! +#&1$! 8W!! :-D&'?:! &'! SAEW! -,$!

:1&?#912!#&?#$,!9#-'!$.M$C9$(!0:&'?!9#$!P%BP!$:9&F-9&*'!F$9#*(;!

"#$!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!D-,2!:&?'&=&C-'912!=,*F!9$,,&9*,2!9*!9$,,&9*,2!(0$!9*! 9#$! (&==$,$'C$:! &'! 9#$! ?$'$,-9&*'! :9-CJ! <$9+$$'! $-C#! 9$,,&9*,2;!>&?0,$! NAA[6! M1*9:! 9#$! M$,C$'9-?$! *=! C*-1[?$'$,-9&*'! F-,J$9! :#-,$!-?-&':9!9#$!$F&::&*'!:-D&'?:!=*,!$-C#!9$,,&9*,2;!

K,2L4&'THHM!)'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./'*+,--,./-'0#1,/2-'1-J';.#%'S&/&4#<,./'5#4U&<'07#4&!

!

P:!9#$!M$,C$'9-?$!*=!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*'!F-,J$9!:#-,$!&'C,$-:$:5!:*!(*!9#$!$F&::&*'!:-D&'?:;!"#&:!&:!(0$!9*!F*,$!C*-1!?$'$,-9&*'!<$&'?!*==:$9!9*!-11*+!=*,!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!`*+$D$,5!9#&:!&'9$,-C9&*'!M,$:$'9:!&9:!*+'!M,*<1$F:;! P:! F*,$! C*-1! 0'&9:! -,$! C2C1$(5! ,$1&-<&1&92! &:! ($?,-($(5!$==&C&$'C2!($C1&'$:!-'(!F-&'9$'-'C$!C*:9:!,&:$;!

8*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!-::$9:!&'!9#$!SAEW!*M$,-9&'?!-,$-!,$M,$:$'9!H4h!*=! 9*9-1! ?$'$,-9&*';! %&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! F*:912! *==:$9:! C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'5! +#&C#! #-:! #&?#$,! $F&::&*':! ,-9$:! 9#-'! '-90,-1! ?-:! =&,$(!?$'$,-9&*';!A'!C*FM-,&:*'5!9#$,$!&:!1&991$!9*!'*!C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'!

"

$

%

&

'

#

*

"V %"V '"V *"V +"V $""V

H87=>I?

"$#

31@6#!<8<F@=718#?@FJ<=#K$@F<#

/D%CDH=D%3LMKN

#O#PQL#

:R3NS#

?MKN

#

34

9#$!8PAEW!*,!I)P!*M$,-9&'?!-,$-:;!Z-90,-1!?-:!-'(!#2(,*!?$'$,-9&*'!0'&9:! -,$! 0:$(! 9*! -CC*FF*(-9$! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! L0$! 9*! 9#$! 1*+!$F&::&*':! ,-9$:! *=! 9#$:$! 0'&9:! U'*! $F&::&*':! &'! 9#$! C-:$! *=! #2(,*V5!9#$,$! &:! D$,2! 1&991$! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! &'! I)P!*,!8PAEW;! BT8W"!#-:! -!,$1-9&D$12! <-1-'C$(! F&.! *=! '-90,-1! ?-:! -'(! C*-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! -::$9:5!+#&C#!$.M1-&':!+#2!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!&'!9#&:!,$?&*'!=-11!<$9+$$'!9#*:$!&'!I)Pa8PAEW!-'(!SAEW;!!

%&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! $F&::&*'! :-D&'?:! +&11! 1&J$12! =-11! &'! C*-1[(*F&'-9$(!-,$-:!:0C#!-:!SAEW;!!B)P!,$?01-9&*':!C*D$,&'?!9#$!,$1$-:$!*=!EW

65!ZW

X!

-'(! F$,C0,2! +&11! (&:C*0,-?$! 9#$! 0:$! *=! C*-1[=&,$(! M*+$,! M1-'9:! =*,!$1$C9,&C&92;! ! "#&:! &'9$,-C9&*'!+&11! ,$:019! &'! 9#$! ,$(0C9&*'! *=! M*9$'9&-1!:-D&'?:!=*,!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-:!'-90,-1!?-:!0'&9:!-,$!<,*0?#9!*'1&'$!9*!,$M1-C$!C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*';!!!

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d$(! &'!*,($,! 9*! C-1C01-9$! 9*9-1! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! -'(! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:!,-9$:;6Q!

>&?0,$! NAA[@! C-M90,$:! 9#$! -C90-1! $:9&F-9$(! 8W!! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! <2!

:9-9$! (0,&'?! 6774! <-:$(! *'! 9#$! -F*0'9! *=!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! -'(! 9#$!C*-1! F-,J$9[:#-,$! ,$1-9&*':#&M! ($D$1*M$(! &'! >&?0,$! NAA[6;! "#&:! (-9-!,$=1$C9:! <*9#! C-M-C&92! 09&1&d-9&*'! -'(! +&'(! ,$:*0,C$! -D-&1-<&1&92! <2!,$?&*';!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!23 ESO2 = 6.809C2 + 0.769C + 0.034, ENOX = 2.450C2 + 0.134C + 0.36, ECO2 = 0.666C2 + 0.537C + 0.19 24 (Department of Energy)

35

K,2L4&'THHMR)'GN<L#%';=!'*+,--,./-'0#1,/2-'$O'0<#<&'Z'".<#%'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./W'!XXQ!

!

E$D$,-1! C*'C10:&*':! C-'! <$! (,-+'! =,*F! >&?0,$! NAA[@! +#$,$! 9#$! <10$!<-,:!&'(&C-9$!9#*0:-'(!9*':!*=!8W

!!:-D&'?:!-'(!9#$!,$(!<-,:!&'(&C-9$!

R%#! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! <2! :9-9$! &'! 6774;! BD$'! 9#*0?#! 9*9-1! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! &'! A*+-!+-:! Y6h! 1$::! 9#-'! "$.-:5! 9*9-1! 8W

!! :-D&'?:!+$,$!

*'12!6Qh! 1$::;!"#&:! &:!(0$! 9*! 9#$!F-,J$9!:#-,$!*=! C*-1! &'! A*+-!<$&'?!#&?#$,! 9#-'! &'! "$.-:;! "#$! :-F$! 1*?&C! -MM1&$:! 9*! 8-1&=*,'&-! -'(!8*1*,-(*![!$D$'!9#*0?#!9#$,$!&:!'$-,12!9+&C$!-:!F0C#!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'!8-1&=*,'&-! 9#-'! &'!8*1*,-(*5! 9#$!8W

!! :-D&'?:! &'!8-1&=*,'&-!-,$!#-1=!

9#-9!*=!8*1*,-(*;!!

]:&'?!9#$!-MM,*-C#!=,*F!>&?0,$!NAA[@!-!];E;!8W!!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!,-9$!

C-'!<$!($,&D$(;!"#$!C-1C01-9&*'!:0F:!9#$!9*9-1!C-1C01-9$(!-D*&($(!8W!!

$F&::&*':! &'! >&?0,$! NAA[@! -'(! (&D&($:! 9#-9! D-10$! <2! 9*9-1! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-C,*::!9#$!];E;!"#$!*09M09!*=!9#&:!C-1C01-9&*'! &:! :#*+'!&'!>&?0,$!NAA[Q;!!

"

#)"""

$")"""

$#)"""

%")"""

%#)"""

"

$)"""

%)"""

&)"""

')"""

#)"""

*)"""

4)"""

+)"""

5)"""

$")"""

M0W-7

6AU-

2<..0

7A8-

CA@8I!X-YA8-

;3AT<.S

=A9A@-:A

Z-.7-7

6.:<-.-

699<.A<7

C0U

!20W<>A

DY9-IAT

-=-9<[A@.<-

;078!\

<@S<.<-

;<7>

A.7<.

;-7I<.S8A.

D@0SA.

2A.

8-.-

C0U

!]A@Y

P0..

739R-.

<-2<77A^

@<C0F

@-7Y-

2<>I<S-.

/A^8I!X-

YA8-

!"$#12#"

78B#!<

8<F@=71

8#

S18>#12#3

N'#K@;789>#

=D%!KT<77<A.7!/-R<.S7;<.:1AU0@!=-1-><83

36

K,2L4&'THHM])'IJ0J'*+,--,./-'0#1,/2-'3&4'567'.8'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./'1-J'G1&4#2&'IJ0J'F._&4'*+,--,./-!

!

"#$:$! ,$:019:! &FM12! 9#-9! 8W!5! EW

!! -'(! ZW

C! $:9&F-9&*':! =,*F! :*F$!

M,$D&*0:! :90(&$:! -,$! =-,! -<*D$! 9#$! -C90-1! :-D&'?:! ,-9$:;! "#$!'-9&*'-1!-D$,-?$:! -1:*! F-:J! 9#$! =-C9! 9#-9! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! D-,2! +&($12! <2!,$?&*'! (0$! 9*! 9#$! 92M$! *=! ?$'$,-9&*'! &'! $-C#! ,$?&*';! B'D&,*'F$'9-1!M1-''$,:!F0:9!0'($,:9-'(! 9#&:!-:!M1-':! 9*!F$$9! $F&::&*':!?*-1:!-,$!*091&'$(;!!

"#$!8W!!$F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*'!-:M$C9:!*=!9#&:!:90(2!:0??$:9!9#-9!?*-1:!

*=! $'D&,*'F$'9-1! M1-''$,:! C-'! <$! F$9! 9#,*0?#! C0,,$'9! ?$'$,-9&*'!9$C#'*1*?&$:5! &'C10(&'?! ,$M1-C&'?! C*-1[=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*'! +&9#! '-90,-1!?-:;! I-:$(! *'! -C90-1! $F&::&*':! =,*F! C*-1! -'(! ?-:! M1-'9:! -C,*::! 9#$!];E;5!>&?0,$!NAA[G!C-M90,$:!9#$!-D$,-?$!8W

!!$F&::&*':!,-9$!*=!C*-1[=&,$(!

?$'$,-9&*'!-'(!'-90,-1!?-:[=&,$(!C*F<&'$(!C2C1$!?$'$,-9&*';!!

!%J%!!

!$J$!!!"J*!!

!#J4!!

!%J&!!

!"J+!!

!'J$!!

!$J4!!

!"J5!!

/D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G

OKCMKZ!/-R<.S7!K78<T-80

N;KN!/-R<.S7!K78<T-80

NR0@-S0!QJ/J!PAU0@!KT<77<A.7

37

K,2L4&'THHMV)';=!'*+,--,./-'>#<&-'.8';.#%'#/9'B#<L4#%'S#-!

;.+$,/&9';ON%&'S&/&4#<,./!

!

"#$! (&==$,$'C$! <$9+$$'! 9#$! 8W!! $F&::&*':! ,-9$! *=! C*-1! -'(! ?-:!

C*F<&'$(! C2C1$! =-C&1&9&$:! &:! 7;Y! 9*':aS%#;! T$M1-C&'?! C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!+&9#!'-90,-1!?-:!C*F<&'$(!C2C1$!?$'$,-9&*'!+*01(!,$:019!&'!9#$!:-F$!8W

!!$F&::&*':!:-D&'?:!,-9$!-:!9#$!'-9&*'-1!-D$,-?$!=*,!+&'(!

?$'$,-9&*';!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

$J$!

"J#!

"J"

"J%

"J'

"J*

"J+

$J"

$J%

=A-9!?0.0@-8<A.=D%!L-80

?-7!==!?0.0@-8<A.=D%!L-80

S18>I?

"$#

38

VIII. The Costs of Wind Generation $

$

5*'#3-,4$ 3#,52A$ ?13$ -@2*$ &'$ '*'J2123-&'-?@#$ #'#,84$ 12#$-'($ 3"12$ &3$ +&@@$ #-2&@4$ &'/,#-2#$ ,-3"#,$ 3"-'$ (#/,#-2#$ CD

!$

#5&22&*'2 TK$ $O=$(#$R,**3$Z$C=$@#$)-&,$

P19#*0?#!9#$!$F&::&*':!<$'$=&9:!=,*F!+&'(!-,$!b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b0$:9&*'! -((,$::$(! &'! 9#&:! C#-M9$,! &:!+#$9#$,! 9#$2! -,$! :0==&C&$'9! 9*!i0:9&=2! 9#$&,! C*:9:! :&FM12! ($=&'$(! -:! 9#$! 0'($,12&'?! ),*(0C9&*'! "-.!8,$(&9!*==$,$(!<2!9#$!=$($,-1!?*D$,'F$'9;!]:$!*=!+&'(!$'$,?2!$'9-&1:!F-'2!*9#$,!C*:9:!-'(!9#$:$!+&11!<$!(&:C0::$(!&'!9#&:!C#-M9$,!-:!+$11;!`*+$D$,5! C*'C10:&D$! (-9-! *'! 9#$:$! C*:9:! *9#$,! 9#-'! 9#$! ),*(0C9&*'!"-.!8,$(&9!&:!'*9!-D-&1-<1$!-9!9#&:!9&F$;!

Renewable Electricity Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC)

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g66aS%#V;!W9#$,!$1&?&<1$!9$C#'*1*?&$:!,$C$&D$!3;3!C$'9:!M$,!J%#;!"#&:!C,$(&9! -MM1&$:! 9*!<*9#!C*FF$,C&-1! -'(! &'(0:9,&-1! :$C9*,:;! A'!*,($,! 9*!<$!$1&?&<1$!=*,!9#$!9-.!C,$(&95!*M$,-9*,:!F0:9!#-D$!<$?0'!C*':9,0C9&*'!*=! 9#$! =-C&1&92! <$=*,$! L$C;! @35! 673@;! WM$,-9*,:! -,$! C*FM$':-9$(!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!25 (Pair, 2009)

39

9#,*0?#!9#&:!C,$(&9!=*,!9#$!=&,:9!37!2$-,:!-=9$,!9#$!(-9$!9#$!=-C&1&92!?*$:!&'9*!:$,D&C$;6Y!!

S*'9#12! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! (-9-! =,*F! 9#$! BAP! C*F<&'$(! +&9#! 9#$! 9-.!C,$(&9! -11*+:! =*,! -! #&?#[1$D$1! 0'($,:9-'(&'?! *=! 9#$! F*'9#12! C*:9! 9*!:0<:&(&d$!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-C,*::!9#$!];E;!>&?0,$!NAAA[3!:#*+:!9#&:!(-9-!*'! -!F*'9#12! <-:&:! &'!F&11&*':! *=! (*11-,:;! E&'C$! /-'0-,2! 67735! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!*M$,-9*,:!#-D$!,$C$&D$(!-!9*9-1!*=!F*,$!9#-'!g33!<&11&*'!&'!=$($,-112!:0<:&(&d$(!C*FM$':-9&*';!A'!9#$!$-,12!:9-?$:!*=!9#$!M,*?,-F5!F*'9#12!C*:9:!9*!9#$!?*D$,'F$'9!+$,$!92M&C-112!<$1*+!g67!F&11&*'!-'(!*'!-'!-D$,-?$!<-:&:!,-'?$(!=,*F!g3@!F&11&*'!9*!g66!F&11&*';!I2!67375!#*+$D$,5!9#$!M,*?,-F!C*:9!&'C,$-:$(!+&9#!-!9*9-1!-''0-1!$.M$'(&90,$!*=!g@;6!<&11&*';!A9!&:!&FM*,9-'9!9*!,$C*?'&d$!9#-9!9#$:$!C*:9:!<0&1(!0M*'!9#$F:$1D$:! <$C-0:$! 9#$! :0<:&(2! $.9$'(:! =*,! 37! 2$-,:! =,*F! 9#$! (-9$!9#$!M1-'9!<$C*F$:!*M$,-9&*'-1;!

K,2L4&'THHHM()'G//L#%';.-<'.8'K&9&4#%'F4.9LN<,./'"#`';4&9,<'8.4'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./!

!

Implied Costs of Saving CO! through Wind Generation

E$D$,-1! 1$?&:1-9&D$! $==*,9:!*D$,! 9#$!M-:9! 9+*! 2$-,:!#-D$! -99$FM9$(! 9*!1&F&9! 9#$! -F*0'9! *=! 8W

!! $F&::&*':! =,*F! :9-9&*'-,2! :*0,C$:! -'(! 9*!

C,$-9$!-!F-,J$9!&'!+#&C#!8W!!C-'!<$!9,-($(;!T$C$'9!$==*,9:!&'C10($!9#$!

%-.F-'[S-,J$2!<&11!M,*M*:$(!<2!T$M:;!`$',2!%-.F-'!UL[8PV!-'(!B(!S-,J$2! UL[SPV;! "#$! <&11! +-:! M-::$(! <2! 9#$! ];E;! `*0:$! *=!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!26 (DSIRE, 2010)

_"

_#""

_$)"""

_$)#""

_%)"""

_%)#""

_&)"""

_&)#""

?766718>#

40

T$M,$:$'9-9&D$:!&'!/0'$!6774;!P'*9#$,!<&11!+-:!M,*M*:$(!<2!E$':;!/*#'!j$,,2! UL[SPV! -'(! /*$! ^&$<$,F-'! UA[8"V;! "#$! ?*-1! *=! 9#$:$! 1$?&:1-9&D$!$==*,9:!+-:! 9*! ,$(0C$! 9#$!-F*0'9!*=!C-,<*'!$F&::&*':! &'! 9#$!];E;!<2!&FM*:&'?!-((&9&*'-1!C*:9:!*'!C-,<*'[&'9$':&D$!&'(0:9,&$:;!

"#$!C*:9!M$,!9*'!*=!C-,<*'!(&*.&($!+-:!-1:*!=*,$C-:9$(!&'!9#$:$!<&11:;!B:9&F-9$:! :0??$:9$(! 9#-9! *'$! 9*'! *=! 8W

6! +*01(! 1&J$12! <$! M,&C$(!

<$9+$$'! g33[g3G! &'! 6736! -'(! g66[g6K! &'! 676G;! "#$:$! ,-9$:! +*01(!&'C,$-:$!9#$!C*:9!*=!$1$C9,&C&925!<09!+*01(!1&J$12!($C,$-:$!9#$!-F*0'9!*=!8W

6!$F&99$(!-''0-112!<2!$1$C9,&C&92!?$'$,-9*,:;!W0,!-'-12:&:!:#*+:!

9#$! C*:9! 9*! ,$(0C$! *'$! 9*'! *=! 8W!! 9#,*0?#! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &:!

:&?'&=&C-'912! #&?#$,! 9#-'! 9#$! C*:9:! :9&M01-9$(! &'! 9#$! C-M[-'([9,-($!1$?&:1-9&D$!$==*,9:;!

80,,$'9125! 9#$! )"8! *==$,:! -! 9-.! C,$(&9! *=! g66! M$,! S%#! 9*! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!*M$,-9*,:;!I$C-0:$!9#&:!&:!-!9-.!C,$(&95!9#$!9,0$!C*:9!*=!9#$!:0<:&(2!:#*01(!<$!$D-10-9$(!-:!M,$[9-.;!"*!(*!9#&:!9#$!g66aS%#!D-10$!'$$(:! 9*! <$! (&D&($(! <2! *'$5! F&'0:! 9#$! 9-.! ,-9$! U@GhV5! *,! YGh;! "#$!,$:019&'?!M,$[9-.!D-10$!*=!9#$!M,*(0C9&*'!9-.!C,$(&9!&:!ng@Q!M$,!S%#;!A=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! *==:$9:! 3! 9*'! *=! 8W

!! M$,! S%#5! 9#$'! 9#$! C*:9! *=!

,$(0C&'?! 8W!! $F&::&*':! <2! *'$! 9*'! &:! g@Q;! A'! *,($,! 9*! $:9&F-9$! 9#$!

C*:9!9*!,$(0C$!3!9*'!*=!8W!!+&9#!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'5!9#$!:-D&'?:!,-9$!*=!

8W!! $F&::&*':! &'! $-C#! 9$,,&9*,2! &:! -MM1&$(! 9*! 9#$! C*:9! *=! 9#$! )"8;!

>&?0,$!NAAA[6!C-M90,$:!9#&:!(-9-!=*,!$-C#!,$?&*';!!

K,2L4&'THHHM!)'0.N,#%';.-<'<.'=88-&<'('"./'.8';X!'<74.L27'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./!

!

!_'%J#"!!!_&&J"$!!

!_#*J''!! !_4"J+&!!

!_$$&J4$!!

!_'$5J4#!!

!_(

!_#"

!_$""

!_$#"

!_%""

!_%#"

!_&""

!_&#"

!_'""

!_'#"

!(

!%

!'

!*

!+

!$"

!$%

!$'

N;KN 26/D QJ/J!NRS KL=DM =N6/D OPN

TIS1

8#12#3N'#

?"$#

;<.:!?0.0@-8<A.!C00:0:

41

"#$!C*:9!9*!,$(0C$!*'$!9*'!*=!8W!!$F&::&*':!&'!BT8W"!9#,*0?#!+&'(!

?$'$,-9&*'! &:! gH7;! "#&:! (,*M:! 9*! g@@! &'! SAEW5! &'C,$-:$:! 9*! g33Q! &'!8PAEW!-'(!9*M:!*09!-9!gQ67!&'!I)P;!W'!-D$,-?$5!9#$!C*:9!*=!*==:$99&'?!8W

!!9#,*0?#!9#$!M,*(0C9&*'!9-.!C,$(&9!&:!gGY!M$,!9*';!"#$:$!C*:9:!=-,!

$.C$$(!9#$!C*:9:!M$,!9*'!*=!8W!!:9&M01-9$(!<2!-'2!*=!9#$!,$C$'9!C-,<*'!

C-M!1$?&:1-9&*';!

"#&:! -'-12:&:! &'(&C-9$:! 9#-9! &9! &:! '*9! C*:9[$==$C9&D$! 9*! ,$(0C$! 8W!!

$F&::&*':! 0:&'?! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &=! C-,<*'! &:! D-10$(! -9! 9#$! ,-9$:!M,*M*:$(!<2! 9#$!%-.F-'[S-,J$2! 1$?&:1-9&*';!8-,<*'!F0:9!<$!D-10$(!G7[377h! #&?#$,! &'! SAEW! =*,! +&'(! M*+$,! 9*! <$! -! C*:9[$==$C9&D$!-19$,'-9&D$;!A'!I)P5!C-,<*'!F0:9!<$!D-10$(!'$-,12!3@!9&F$:!#&?#$,!9#-'!9#$! 676G! F-.&F0F! C-,<*'! M,&C$! M,*M*:$(! &'! %-.F-'! S-,J$2! =*,!+&'(!9*!<$!C*:9!$==$C9&D$;!

Other Wind Generation Cost Components

E$D$,-1! :90(&$:! #-D$! C&9$(! '0F$,*0:! -((&9&*'-1! C*:9:! 9#-9! -,$! '*9!?$'$,-112! b0-'9&=&$(! *,! (&:C0::$(!+#$'! C-1C01-9&'?! 9#$! C*:9! *=! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!"#$!(-9-!9*!M,*M$,12!b0-'9&=2!9#$:$!C*:9:! &:!'*9!-D-&1-<1$!9*!9#$!M0<1&C5!-'(!09&1&9&$:!-,$!-:J&'?!=*,!,-9$!&'C,$-:$:!9*!C*D$,!F-'2!*=!9#$:$!0'$.M$C9$(!C*:9:;!!

H/N4&#-&9' 5#,/<&/#/N&' ;.-<-' a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b0$'C2! *=! 0'&9!C2C1&'?;! "#$! C*:9:! *=! &'9$?,-9&'?! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! (0$! 9*! C2C1&'?!+&11!C*'9&'0$! 9*! ,&:$5!-'(!9#$!C*:9!+&11! 1&J$12!<$!M-::$(!*'!9*! 9#$!,-9$M-2$,;!!

KL&%';.-<-'aL&' <.'E#NUL3'S&/&4#<,./;!S-'2!:90(&$:!#-D$!'*9$(!9#$! '$C$::&92! *=! <-CJ0M! ?$'$,-9&*'! :*0,C$:! 9*! -11*+! =*,! 9#$!0'M,$(&C9-<1$! '-90,$! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! "#$:$! <-CJ0M! :*0,C$:!

42

-,$! 9#$,F-1! =-C&1&9&$:! 9#-9! -,$! J$M9! &'! :9-'(<2!F*($! &'! *,($,! 9*!,$-C9!+&9#&'!:$C*'(:!9*!C#-'?$:!&'!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!`*+$D$,5!=0$1!&:! ,$b0&,$(! 9*! J$$M! 9#$:$! ,$:*0,C$:! -D-&1-<1$5! 9#$,$<2! ?$'$,-9&'?!$F&::&*':! 9*! -11*+! =*,! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! UI$$':9*CJ56H!)0?-6KV;! P:!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! C-M-C&92! C*'9&'0$:! 9*! &'C,$-:$5! F*,$! <-CJ0M!?$'$,-9&*'!-::$9:!+&11!<$!'$$($(!9*!J$$M!9#$!?,&(!&'!<-1-'C$;!%#&1$!9#&:!1&J$12!+&11!<$!-!1&'$-,!,$1-9&*':#&M5!&9!&:!-'!&'C,$F$'9-1!C*:9!9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!!!

H/N4&+&/<#%'K%&`,$%&';#3#N,<O';.-<-J'>1$.&<1$!?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92!&:! -! '$C$::&92! =*,! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! *M$,-9*,:! 9#-9! 1-CJ! -CC$::! 9*!$.9$,'-1! $1$C9,&C&92!F-,J$9:! 9*! M0,C#-:$! M*+$,! &'! -'! *'[($F-'(!:C$'-,&*;! )E8*! &'! 8*1*,-(*! &:! &'C,$-:&'?12! =&'(&'?! &9:$1=! &'! 9#&:!:&90-9&*';! A'!9$:9&F*'2!?&D$'!&'!/0'$!677K!9*!9#$!8*1*,-(*!)0<1&C!]9&1&9&$:! 8*FF&::&*'5! "#*F-:! AF<1$,5! M,$:&($'9! *=! 8*FF$,C&-1!

&'! +#&C#! -((&9&*'-1! +&'(! 90,<&'$:! $.C$$(! 9#$! C-M-C&92! *=! *0,!9#$,F-1! 0'&9:! 9*! C*FM$':-9$! =*,! -! ,-M&(! ,$(0C9&*'! &'! +&'(!

64!A'!*,($,!9*!&'C*,M*,-9$!:&?'&=&C-'9!-F*0'9:!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'5!)E8*!<$1&$D$:!9#-9!$&9#$,!C0,,$'9!?$'$,-9&*'!0'&9:!+&11!#-D$! 9*! <$! -19$,$(! 9*! #-D$! #&?#$,! ,-FM&'?! C-M-<&1&9&$:! *,! '$+!?$'$,-9&*'!-::$9:!+&9#!#&?#!,-FM&'?!-<&1&9&$:!+&11!#-D$!9*!<$!<0&19!&'!*,($,!9*!C*FM$':-9$!=*,!9#$!D-,&-<&1&92!&'!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!!!

B&2#<,1&' *%&N<4,N,<O' F4,N&-J' N*1-9&1$! :0MM12! *=! -'2! C*FF*(&92!C,$-9$:!D*1-9&1$!M,&C$:;!"#&:!&:!#-MM$'&'?!&'!9#$!%$:9!M,&C&'?!d*'$!*=! BT8W"! -:! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! #-:! <$$'! &'9,*(0C$(;! `*+$D$,5! &'!9#&:! C-:$5! 9#$,$! &:! :0C#!*D$,:0MM12! 9#-9!$1$C9,&C&92!M,&C$:!-C90-112!?*! '$?-9&D$! =*,! 1*'?! M$,&*(:! *=! 9&F$;! >&?0,$! NAAA[@! C-M90,$:!

[6@5!67745!-'(!9#$!#*0,12!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!9#-9!-CC*FM-'&$(!9#$!M,&C&'?!:C$'-,&*:;!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!27 (Beenstock, 1995) 28 (Puga, 2010) 29 (Rebuttal Testimony and Exhibits of Thomas A. Imbler on Behalf of Public Service Company of Colorado, 2008)

43

K,2L4&'THHHMR)'*%&N<4,N,<O'F4,N&-'#/9'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./',/'*>;="W'5#O'!XXQ!

!

E0MM12! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! *'!S-2! 63! -'(!S-2! 66! +-:! -9! :0C#!#&?#! 1$D$1:! 9#-9! &9! C-0:$(! 9#$! %$:9! BT8W"! M,&C&'?! M*&'9! 9*! ?*!'$?-9&D$;! >*,! #*0,:! -9! -! 9&F$! M,&C$:! +$,$! :0:9-&'-<12! '$-,! [g@7aS%#;! P9! *'$! M*&'9! *'! S-2! 635! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! :0MM12!:0<:&($(5! C-0:&'?! M,&C$:! 9*! ,$90,'! 9*! -! '*,F-1! ,-'?$;! P:! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!(&$(!9#,*0?#*09!S-2!66!-'(!6@5!%$:9!M,&C$:!,$90,'$(!9*!-!'*,F-1!1$D$15!M,&C$(!-9!M-,&92!+&9#!9#$!Z*,9#!-'(!E*09#!d*'$:!=*,!9#$!,$F-&'($,!*=!9#$!9&F$!:$,&$:;!!

),&C$:!?*!'$?-9&D$!<$C-0:$! *=! 9#$! >$($,-1! ),*(0C9&*'!"-.!8,$(&9!9#-9!*M$,-9*,:! ,$C$&D$;!Z*9&C$! 9#-9! 9#$!#*0,12! :$991$! M,&C$! &'! 9#$!%$:9! (*$:! '*9! ($D&-9$! =-,! =,*F!g@7aS%#5!+#&C#! &:! 9#$! 9-.[=,$$!-(i0:9$(! -F*0'9! 9#-9! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! *M$,-9*,:! ,$C$&D$! M$,!S%#;!

"#$! =,$b0$'C2! *=! '$?-9&D$! M,&C&'?! &'C,$-:$(! -:! 9#$! &':9-11$(!C-M-C&92!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!,*:$!<$9+$$'!677Y!-'(!6737;!>&?0,$!NAAA[Q!M1*9:!9#$!'0F<$,!*=!#*0,:!+#$'!M,&C$:!-D$,-?$(!1$::!9#-'!g7;77aS%#!-9!9#$!BT8W"!%$:9!M,&C&'?!M*&'9!*'!-'!-''0-1!<-:&:;!A':9-11$(!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92!&'!BT8W"!&:!-1:*!M1*99$(;!!

"

#""

$)"""

$)#""

%)"""

%)#""

&)"""

&)#""

(_'"

(_%"

_"

_%"

_'"

_*"

_+"

" & * 5 $%$#$+%$ " & * 5 $%$#$+%$ " & * 5 $%$#$+%$

%$ %% %&

?"$#12#"

78B#!<

8<F@=71

8#

TI?"$#

;<.:!?0.0@-8<A. À^78A. CA@8I /A^8I ;078

44

K,2L4&'THHHM])'*>;="'6&-<'B&2#<,1&'F4,N&'K4&bL&/NO'1-J'H/-<#%%&9'6,/9';#3#N,<O!

!

P:!&':9-11$(!+&'(!C-M-C&92!,*:$!<$9+$$'!677Y!-'(!6737!:*!(&(!9#$!=,$b0$'C2!*=!'$?-9&D$!M,&C&'?!*CC0,,$'C$:;!"#&:! :#*01(! C*'9&'0$!?*&'?! =*,+-,(! -'(! <$! F*,$! +&($:M,$-(! <$C-0:$! *=! 9#$! '*(-1!F-,J$9!9#-9!&:!&'!M1-C$;!!

Z$?-9&D$!M,&C$:!(*!'*9!:0MM*,9!C*FM$9&9&D$!F-,J$9:;!O0-'9&=2&'?!9#$!C*:9!*=!9#&:! &FM-C9! &:!(&==&C019!-:! &9!-==$C9:!9#$!$'9&,$!BT8W"!M*+$,! :2:9$F;! B1$C9,&C&92! M,&C$:! &'! ?$'$,-1! -,$! :&?'-1:! 9*!C*':0F$,:! -'(! &'D$:9*,:;! BT8W"! +&11! <$! C#-11$'?$(! 9*! -99,-C9!M*9$'9&-1! ?$'$,-9&*'! -::$9! &'D$:9*,:! +&9#! '$?-9&D$! M,&C$:! &'! 9#$!,$?&*';! "#&:! &:! -! :&?'-1! 9*! <*9#! +&'(! =-,F! -'(! 9#$,F-1! M1-'9!<0&1($,:!9#-9!9#$!BT8W"!F-,J$9!F-2!'*9!<$!-:!M,*=&9-<1$!-:!*'C$!9#*0?#9;!

"4#/-+,--,./' %,/&-J' "2M&C-1125! M*+$,! ?$'$,-9&*'! :*0,C$:! -,$!M1-C$(! &'! -,$-:! +#$,$! 9#$! 0'&9:! -,$! -<1$! 9*! :$,D$! C$,9-&'! 1*C-1!

&':9-11-9&*'! 1*C-9&*':! -,$! -1:*! *=9$'! =-,! -+-2! =,*F! 1*-(! C$'9$,:!UC*':0FM9&*'! -,$-:V5! ,$:019&'?! &'! F-9$,&-1! &'C,$F$'9-1!9,-':F&::&*'!C*':9,0C9&*'!C*:9:!=*,!&9!9*!<$!09&1&d$(!U-:!*MM*:$(!9*!,$M*+$,&'?!$.&:9&'?5!*1($,!=-C&1&9&$:V;!P9!gQ[gG!F&11&*'!M$,!F&1$5!*,!F*,$5! 9#&:! ,$M,$:$'9:! -! F-i*,! &'C,$F$'9-1! C*:9! 9#-9! +*01(! <$!F*:912!-D*&($(!&=!-!09&1&92!+$,$!-<1$!9*!&':9$-(!*M9!=*,!,$M*+$,&'?!

!(

!%)"""

!')"""

!*)"""

!+)"""

!$")"""

!$%)"""

"

%""

'""

*""

+""

$)"""

$)%""

$)'""

%""* %""4 %""+ %""5 %"$" %"$$ %"$% %"$& %"$'

"78B#!<

8<F@=71

8#3@

A@57=4#U?

"V#

W<9@=7;<#QF75789#XF<Y

E<854#

a@0b^0.>3

=-1-><83

aA@0>-78!=-1-><83

45

@7!"#$:$! C*:9:! +*01(! <$!F-::&D$! =*,! ,$?&*':!,$b0&,$(! 9*! F$$9! ,$'$+-<1$! $'$,?2! :9-'(-,(:! <09! +&9#! =$+!(*F$:9&C!,$:*0,C$:!-D-&1-<1$;!!

BD$'! &'! :9-9$:! :0C#! -:! "$.-:5!+#&C#! #-:! M,*1&=&C!+&'(! ,$:*0,C$:5!9#$,$! -,$! 9,-':F&::&*'! M,*<1$F:;! A'! -! 9,-':F&::&*'! :90(2!C*'(0C9$(! &'! 677H5! BT8W"! =*&'C,$-:$!&'!9#$!&':9-11-9&*'!*=!'$+!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&'!%$:9!"$.-:!&:! $.M$C9$(! 9*! ,$:019! &'! C*'?$:9&*'! *'! F019&M1$! C*':9,-&'9:! -'(!%$:9! 9*! Z*,9#! 9,-':=$,:! 0'9&1! '$+! <01J! 9,-':F&::&*'! 1&'$:! -,$!-(($(! <$9+$$'!%$:9! "$.-:! -'(! 9#$!Z$-,12!-11!*=!9#$!-'9&C&M-9$(!C*'?$:9&*'!&'!9#$!%$:9!+$-9#$,!d*'$!&:! -::*C&-9$(! +&9#! 9#$! F-::&D$! &'C,$-:$! &'! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92! &'! BT8W"; @3 !B:9&F-9$(! C*:9:! =*,! 9#$! 9,-':F&::&*'!M,*i$C9:! ,-'?$! <$9+$$'! g6;4G! <&11&*'! =*,! 3657G@! S%! *=! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'! C-M-C&92! -'(! gY;@K! <&11&*'! =*,! 6Q5KG4! S%! *=! +&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92;@6!!

"#$! C*:9:! M$,! S%#! =*,! 9#$:$! 9,-':F&::&*'! &':9-11-9&*':! C-'! <$!C-1C01-9$(;!P::0F&'?!9#-9!9#$!09&1&d-9&*'!,-9$!*=!+&'(!&'!BT8W"!&:!@7h!-'(!9#$,$!&:!-!67[2$-,!1&=$:M-'!*=!9#$!&':9-11$(!C-M-C&92\!

3657G@!S%!o!@7h!09&1&d-9&*'!o!6Q!#*0,:! o!@YG!(-2:! o!67!2$-,:! m! Y@@5G7G5YK7! S%#! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!g654G757775777aY@@5G7G5YK7! S%#! m! gQ;YYaS%#! *=!

+&'(!

6Q5KG4!S%!o!@7h!09&1&d-9&*'!o!6Q!#*0,:! o!@YG!(-2:! o!67!2$-,:! m! 35@7Y5GK457Q7! S%#! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'!Y5@K757775777a35@7Y5GK457Q7! S%#! m! gQ;KKaS%#! *=!

+&'(!

I$9+$$'!9#$!1*+!-'(!#&?#!C-:$!=*,!+&'(!C-M-C&92!-'(!9,-':F&::&*'!C*:9:5!9#$!&'C,$F$'9-1!C*:9!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!(0$!9*!9,-':F&::&*'!1&'$:!-1*'$!&'!BT8W"!&:!<$9+$$'!gQ;YYaS%#!-'(!gQ;KKaS%#;!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!30 (East Shore Partners, Inc., 2010) 31 (ERCOT, 2007) 32 (ERCOT, 2008)

46

IX. Conclusion !

"#$! ,$:019:! *=! 9#&:! :90(2! :0??$:9! 9#-9! +&'(! $'$,?2! C*':9&909$:! -!:&?'&=&C-'9!M-,-(*.\!R$'$,-9&*'!*=!M*+$,!=,*F!+&'(5!M$,!:$5!2&$1(:!'*!$F&::&*':;! `*+$D$,5! &'9$?,-9&*'! *=! +&'(! M*+$,! &'9*! -! '0F<$,! *=!C*FM1$.!09&1&92!:2:9$F:!#-:!1$(!9*!1&991$!*,!'*!$F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*':!*'!9#*:$! :2:9$F:5! -'(! #-:! :&?'&=&C-'912! &'C,$-:$(! C*:9:! 9*! M*+$,!M,*(0C$,:5!?,&(!*M$,-9*,:!-'(!$1$C9,&C&92!C*':0F$,:;!

E$D$,-1!:M$C&=&C!C*'C10:&*':!C-'!<$!(,-+'!=,*F!9#&:!,$:$-,C#;!!

3; ]9&1&9&$:!-,$!=*,C$(!9*!C2C1$!C*-1!-'(!'-90,-1!?-:[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92!&'!*,($,!9*!-CC*FF*(-9$!&'9$,F&99$'9!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';!82C1&'?! :&?'&=&C-'912! ($C,$-:$:! $==&C&$'C2! -9! 9#$! =-C&1&9&$:5!9#$,$<2!&'C,$-:&'?!9#$!$F&::&*':!,-9$:;!

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

@; A=! -! 9*'! *=! C-,<*'! &:! D-10$(! -9! 9#$! 1$D$1:! -::*C&-9$(! +&9#! 9#$!1$?&:1-9&*'!M,*M*:$(!<2!%-.F-'[S-,J$2!-'(!^&$<$,F-'5!'*'$!*=!9#$! ,$?&*':! *<:$,D$(! &'! 9#&:! :90(2! :-D$(! $'*0?#! 8W

6! <2!

:0<:9&909&'?! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! =*,! #2(,*C-,<*'! ?$'$,-9&*'! 9*!-C#&$D$!-!M*:&9&D$!M$,!9*'!*=!C-,<*'!,$(0C$(!C*:9;!A'!-11!,$?&*':5!M1-C&'?! -! D-10$! $b0-1! 9*! 9#$! ),*(0C9&*'!"-.!8,$(&9! *=! g66! M$,!S%#!M,*(0C$(!*'!9#$!?$'$,-9&*'!'$$($(!9*!:-D$!*'$!9*'!*=!8W

!5!

2&$1(:!-!9*9-1!C*:9!*=!C-,<*'!,$(0C9&*'!+$11!&'!$.C$::!*=!gG7!M$,!9*';!

Q; "#$!:-F$!8W!!<$'$=&9:!9#-9!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!C0,,$'912!-C#&$D$:!

-1:*!C-'!<$!F$9!<2!,$[=&,&'?!C*-1!=-C&1&9&$:!+&9#!'-90,-1!?-:;!"#$!(&==$,$'C$!&'!9#$!8W

!!$F&::&*':!,-9$!<$9+$$'!C*-1[!-'(!?-:[=&,$(!

=-C&1&9&$:! &:! 9#$! :-F$! -:! 9#$! -C90-1! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! =,*F!

47

C0,,$'912! &':9-11$(!+&'(!M*+$,! -C,*::! 9#$!'-9&*'5! *,! -<*09! 7;Y!9*':aS%#! 8W

!;! "#$! $C*'*F&C:! -'(! ,$1&-<&1&92! *=! '-90,-1! ?-:[

=&,$(! ?$'$,-9&*'! :0??$:9! 9#-9! -C#&$D&'?! 8W!! $F&::&*':!

,$(0C9&*':!9#,*0?#!,$[=&,&'?!C*-1!M1-'9:!+&9#!'-90,-1!?-:!&:!F*,$!=-D*,-<1$! 9#-'! 0:&'?!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*';! E+&9C#&'?! 9*! ?-:! -D*&(:!F-'2!*=!9#$!C*:9:!-::*C&-9$(!+&9#!+&'(5!&'C10(&'?!9,-':F&::&*'5!<&11&*':! *=! (*11-,:! &'! 9-.! C,$(&9:5! F-&'9$'-'C$! C*:9:! (0$! 9*!C2C1&'?!-'(!*9#$,!D-,&-<1$:!F$'9&*'$(!-<*D$;!

G; P:!'-90,-1!?-:!F-,J$9!:#-,$!C*'9&'0$:!9*!$-9!-+-2!-9!C*-1[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'5! 9#$! M*9$'9&-1! $F&::&*':! :-D&'?:! (0$! 9*! &'C,$-:$(!+&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! +&11! ($C1&'$;! "#$! C*'D$,?$'C$! *=! 1*+5! :9-<1$!'-90,-1! ?-:! M,&C$:5! &'C,$-:&'?! C*-1! C*:9:! -'(! &FM$'(&'?! B)P!$'D&,*'F$'9-1! 1$?&:1-9&*'! 9#-9! +&11! 9&?#9$'! EW

!5! ZW

X5! F$,C0,2!

-'(! *9#$,! $F&::&*':!+&11! &'C,$-:$! 9#$!F-,J$9! :#-,$! *=! '-90,-1!?-:[=&,$(!?$'$,-9&*'!-C,*::!9#$!];E;!P:!9#&:!#-MM$':5!9*9-1!M*+$,!?$'$,-9&*'[,$1-9$(! $F&::&*':! ,-9$:! +&11! ($C1&'$;! P:! 9#$!?$'$,-9&*'!:#-,$!-::*C&-9$(!+&9#!?-:!&'C,$-:$:5!9#$!8W

!!:-D&'?:!

-::*C&-9$(! +&9#! -'! &'C,$F$'9-1! S%#! *=! +&'(! +&11! ($C1&'$! -'(!9#$!C*:9!*=!0:&'?!+&'(!9*!-C#&$D$!9#$!:-D&'?:!+&11!&'C,$-:$;!%&'(!+&11!<$C*F$!-'!&'C,$-:&'?12!$.M$':&D$!+-2!9*!,$(0C$!$F&::&*':;!

Y; A9! -MM$-,:! 9#-9!F-'2!*=! 9#$! =$($,-1! -'(! :9-9$!M*1&C2! $==*,9:! 9*!,$(0C$!8W

!!-'(!*9#$,!$F&::&*':!=,*F!M*+$,!M1-'9:!-,$!<-:$(!*'!

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

)*1&C2F-J$,:! F0:9! ,$12! *'! ,$:019:! -'(! -'-12:&:! *=! -C90-1!$F&::&*':! -'(! *9#$,! M*+$,! (-9-! ,-9#$,! 9#-'! *'! F*($1$(!$:9&F-9$:! -'(! -::0FM9&*':;! S-J&'?! M*1&C2! <-:$(! *'! F*($1$(!(-9-!-'(!-::0FM9&*':!#&'($,:!*,!M,$D$'9:! 9#$!$'$,?2! &'(0:9,2!=,*F!-99-&'&'?!C1$-'!-&,!?*-1:!+#&1$!-1:*!,-&:&'?!C*:9:!=*,!$'$,?2!C*':0F$,:!-'(!M*+$,!C*FM-'&$:;! !

48

X. Works Cited !

"#$!+*,J:! C&9$(! :$C9&*'! C*'9-&':! M0<1&C-9&*':!+#&C#!+$,$!#$1M=01! &'!<*9#! &($'9&=2&'?! 9#$! ,$1-9&*':#&M:! M,$:$'9$(! #$,$&'! -'(! :0MM*,9&'?!C*'C10:&*':!(,-+'!9#,*0?#*09!9#$!:90(2;!!!

!

T$<099-1! "$:9&F*'2! -'(! B.#&<&9:! *=! "#*F-:! P;! AF<1$,! *'! I$#-1=! *=! )0<1&C! E$,D&C$!8*FM-'2!*=!8*1*,-(*5!7HP[QQHB!U)0<1&C!]9&1&9&$:!8*FF&::&*'!*=!9#$!E9-9$!*=!8*1*,-(*!Y!45!677KV;!

PF$,&C-'! %&'(! B'$,?2! P::*C&-9&*';! U6733V;! %&'($ !1,?&'#2$ -'($ S#-@3"=! T$9,&$D$(!Qa36a67335! =,*F! -+$-;*,?\!#99M\aa-+$-;*,?a1$-,'-<*09aM0<1&C-9&*':a1*-($,;C=FeC:S*(01$m:$C0,&92a?$9=&1$_)-?$ALmQ3Q7!

PM9$C#! B'?&'$$,&'?;! U6733V;! C*23$ <'-@42&2$ -'($ C*23J[-2#($ )*+#,$ )@-'3$ <22#3$\-'-8#5#'3$J$!"#,5-@$)*+#,$)@-'3$C4/@&'8$C*232=!PM9$C#!B'?&'$$,&'?;!

PM9$C#;!U';(;V;!>'3#8,-3&'8$%&'(]$C*23$*7$C4/@&'8$<'-@42&2$7*,$S-,,&'83*'$H3-3&*'$^'&3$;$ )"-2#$ :]$ !*6JV*+'$ <'-@42&2=! T$9,&$D$(! 37a6Ya67375! =,*F!#99M\aa+++;<1-'J:1-9$C*FF0'&C-9&*':;C*FaAF-?$:aPM9$C#[`-,,&'?9*'E9-9&*';M(=!

P%BP;! U6774V;!TUUM$^=H=$%&'($ >'(123,4$<''1-@$\-,I#3$_#6*,3]$_-'I&'82=! T$9,&$D$(!=,*F! P%BP\!#99M\aa+++;-+$-;*,?aM0<:a=-C9:#$$9:aA'(0:9,2pT-'J&'?:p>-C9:#$$9;M(=!

P%BP;! U6737V;! <?*13$ <%F<;! T$9,&$D$(! 33a66a67375! =,*F! P%BP\!#99M\aa+++;-+$-;*,?a1-p-<*09-+$-;C=F!

P%BP;!U6737V;!%"-3$-,#$3"#$#'9&,*'5#'3-@$?#'#7&32$*7$+&'($6*+#,=!T$9,&$D$(!37a6Qa!67375!=,*F!P%BP;*,?\!#99M\aa-+$-;*,?a=-ba++9p$'D&,*'F$'9;#9F1q%#-9!-,$!9#$!$'D&,*'F$'9-1!<$'$=&9:!*=!+&'(!M*+$,!

P%BP;! U';(;V;! C@&5-3#$ C"-'8#$ `-/3$ H"##3=! T$9,&$D$(! 33! 6Q5! 67375! =,*F! P%BP\!#99M\aa+++;-+$-;*,?a(*C0F$'9:a=-C9:#$$9:a81&F-9$p8#-'?$;M(=!

I$$':9*CJ5!S;!U344GV;!"#$!:9*C#-:9&C!$C*'*F&C:!*=!+&'(M*+$,;!F'#,84$F/*'*5&/2$:G5!6H[@H;!

I)P;! U6774V;! `-/3$ V*/2=! T$9,&$D$(! =,*F! <M-;?*D\!#99M\aa+++;<M-;?*DaC*,M*,-9$a-<*09pI)Pa>-C9:a>-C9L*C:a6774pI)Pp>-C9:;M(=!

49

8-11-+-25!L;!-;! U6774V;!R*D$,'F$'9!E0MM*,9! =*,! A'9$,F&99$'9!T$'$+-<1$!R$'$,-9&*'!"$C#'*1*?&$:;!\>!$V#6-,35#'3$*7$F/*'*5&/2A$%*,I&'8$)-6#,;!

8-FM<$115! P;! U677K5! 33! 63V;! S*3$ <&,a$ %"#'$ R*9#,'5#'3$ H166*,3$ 7*,$ >'3#,5&33#'3$_#'#+-?@#$!#/"'*@*8&#2$ /-'$ >'/,#-2#$F5&22&*'2=! T$9,&$D$(!33!Q5! 67375! =,*F!#99M\aa+++;+&'([+-9C#;*,?a(*C0F$'9:a+M[C*'9$'9a0M1*-(:aC-FM<$11[#*9[-&,;M(=!

8011$'5! /;! U6737V;!%"-3 2$6*+#,&'8$+&'(a$\#-21,&'8$ 3"#$ #'9&,*'5#'3-@$-33,&?13#2$*7$+&'(J8#'#,-3#($#@#/3,&/&34=!%*,J&'?!)-M$,;!

L-'&$1!j-==&'$5!I,-''&'!SCI$$!-'(!/*d$=!^&$:J*D:J2;! rBF&::&*':!:-D&'?:!=,*F!+&'(!M*+$,!?$'$,-9&*'\!BD&($'C$!=,*F!"$.-:5!8-1&=*,'&-!-'(!9#$!]MM$,!S&(+$:9r! 5!6733;!

L$M-,9F$'9!*=!B'$,?2;!U';(;V;!F><$F@#/3,&/$)*+#,$<''1-@$_#6*,3A$F><JMUXA$F><JMTU$-'($F><JMT;=! T$9,&$D$(! 3! G5! 67335! =,*F! +++;$&-;?*D\!#99M\aa+++;$&-;?*DaC'$-=a$1$C9,&C&92a$M-a$M-!:M,(:#9:;#9F1!

LEATB;!U67375!G!QV;!_#'#+-?@#$F@#/3,&/&34$),*(1/3&*'$!-.$C,#(&3;!T$9,&$D$(!33a@a67375!=,*F! L-9-<-:$! *=! E9-9$! A'C$'9&D$:! =*,! T$'$+-<1$:! _! B==&C&$'C2\!#99M\aa+++;(:&,$0:-;*,?a&'C$'9&D$:a&'C$'9&D$;C=FeA'C$'9&D$p8*($m]E3@>_,$m3_$$m3!

B-:9!E#*,$!)-,9'$,:5!A'C;!U67375!4!66V;!"#$!`&(($'!8*:9!*=!%&'(!R$'$,-9&*'\!A9r11!I1*+!k*0!P+-2;!`-0MM-0?$5!Zk5!];E;!

B'$,?25!L;!*;!U';(;V;!F@#/3,&/$)*+#,$<''1-@$TUUb$J$H3-3#$V-3-$!-?@#2=!T$9,&$D$(!37a6Ga!67375! =,*F! BAP\!#99M\aa+++;$&-;(*$;?*DaC'$-=a$1$C9,&C&92a$M-a$M-p:M,(:#9:;#9F1!

B'$,?25! L;! *;! U';(;V;! F@#/3,&/$ )*+#,$ \*'3"@4$ TUUM$ J$ \*'3"@4$ V-3-$ !-?@#2=! T$9,&$D$(!37a6Ga67375! =,*F! BAP\!#99M\aa+++;$&-;(*$;?*DaC'$-=a$1$C9,&C&92a$M-a$M-p:M,(:#9:pF*'9#12;#9F1!

B'$,?25!L;!*;!U';(;V;!_#3-&@$H-@#2$*7$F@#/3,&/&34$3*$^@3&5-3#$C123*5#,2=!T$9,&$D$(!37a6Ga!67375!=,*F!BAP\!#99M\aa+++;$&-;(*$;?*DaC'$-=a$1$C9,&C&92a$MFa9-<1$Gp3;#9F1!

B'$,?25! L;! *;! U';(;V;! H3-3#2$ +&3"$ _#'#+-?@#$ )*,37*@&*$ H3-'(-,(2=! T$9,&$D$(! 37a6Ga!67375! =,*F! B'$,?2;R*D\!#99M\aa-MM:3;$$,$;$'$,?2;?*Da:9-9$:aF-M:a,$'$+-<1$pM*,9=*1&*p:9-9$:;C=FqF-M!

BT8W";! U677H5! L$C$F<$,V;! TUUG$ F_CD!$ !,-'25&22&*'$ C*'23,-&'32$ c##(2$ _#6*,3=!T$9,&$D$(! 33aQa67375! =,*F! BT8W"\!#99M\aa+++;$,C*9;C*Fa'$+:aM,$:$'9-9&*':a677Ka@G3H3pBT8W"p677Hp",-':F&::&*'p8*':9,-&'9:pZ$$(:pT$M*,9;M(=!

BT8W";! U677K5!PM,&1!76V;!F_CD!$`&@#2$%&'($!,-'25&22&*'$D63&*'2$+&3"$C*55&22&*';!T$9,&$D$(! 33aQa67375! =,*F! BT8W"\!#99M\aa+++;$,C*9;C*Fa'$+:aM,$::p,$1$-:$:a677Ka',7Q[76[7K!

http://inside.mines.edu/~dkaffine/WINDEMISSIONS.pdf

http://inside.mines.edu/~dkaffine/WINDEMISSIONS.pdf

50

BT8W";! U';(;V;! V#5-'($ -'($ F'#,84=! T$9,&$D$(! 37a6Ya67375! =,*F! BT8W"\!#99M\aaM1-''&'?;$,C*9;C*Fa,$M*,9:a($F-'([$'$,?2a!

R-1<,-&9#5! j;! U677K5! /012! 34V;! !#.-2$ <66,*9#2$ -$ de=M;$ [&@@&*'$ %&'(J)*+#,$ ),*L#/3=!T$9,&$D$(! 33a6a6737! =,*F! "#$! Z$+! k*,J! "&F$:\!#99M\aa+++;'29&F$:;C*Fa677Ka7Ha34a<0:&'$::a34+&'(;#9F1!

`*0:$!*=!T$M,$:$'9-9&D$:;! U67745!PM,&1!66V;!!#23&5*'4f[*(#=!T$9,&$D$(!33a66a67375!=,*F! $'$,?2C*FF$,C$;#*0:$;?*D\!#99M\aa$'$,?2C*FF$,C$;#*0:$;?*Da),$::p333a67747Q66a9$:9&F*'2p<*($;M(=!

^&&J5!W;!T;!U677@V;!B:9&F-9&*'!*=!,$-1!$F&::&*':!,$(0C9&*'!C-0:$(!<2!+&'(!?$'$,-9*,:;!>'3#,'-3&*'-@$F'#,84$%*,I2"*6;!

S**,$5! S;! R;! U6737V;! S-,J$9:! =*,! ,$'$+-<1$! $'$,?2! -'(! M*1109&*'! $F&::&*':\!B'D&,*'F$'9-1! C1-&F:5! $F&::&*':[,$(0C9&*'! -CC*0'9&'?5! -'(! M,*(0C9!($C*0M1&'?;!F'#,84$)*@&/4;!

Z-9&*'-1! T$'$+-<1$! B'$,?2! ^-<;! U6737V;! %#23#,'$ %&'($ >'3#8,-3&*'$ _#6*,3=! L$'D$,\!Z-9&*'-1!T$'$+-<1$!B'$,?2!^-<;!

Z8PT;! U67375! G! 33V;! E/#@$ F'#,84$ ),*L#/3$ D9#,9&#+=! T$9,&$D$(! 33a6a6737! =,*F!#99M\aa,-1;0C-,;$(0aM,*i$C9:a+&'(p$'$,?2p+*,J:#*MaM,$:$'9-9&*':aXC$1pB'$,?2p),*i$C9pWD$,D&$+p/*#':*'pG;M(=!

Z*D-'5!j;!S;!U6737V;!E#&=9&'?!+&'(\!"#$!$C*'*F&C:!*=!F*D&'?!:0<:&(&$:!=,*F!M*+$,!M,*(0C$(!9*!$F&::&*':!-D*&($(;!%*,I&'8$)-6#,;!

ZTB^;! U677HV;! c_FN=! T$9,&$D$(! 36aGa67375! =,*F! %&'(! B'$,?2! -'(! P&,! BF&::&*'!T$(0C9&*'!I$'$=&9:\!#99M\aa+++;',$1;?*Da+&'(aM(=:aQ6Y3Y;M(=!

ZTB^;! U';(;V;! %&'($ \-62=! T$9,&$D$(! 37a6Ga67375! =,*F! %&'(! )*+$,&'?! PF$,&C-\!#99M\aa+++;+&'(M*+$,&'?-F$,&C-;?*Da+&'(pF-M:;-:M!

ZTB^;! U';(;V;! %&'($ )*3#'3&-@$ bU\=! T$9,&$D$(! 37a6Ga67375! =,*F! %&'(! )*+$,&'?!PF$,&C-\!#99M\aa+++;+&'(M*+$,&'?-F$,&C-;?*Da(*C:a+&'(pM*9$'9&-1pK7Fp@7M$,C$'9;.1:.!

W;!^&&J5!T;!W;! U677@5! /0'$!6Q[6YV;!B:9&F-9&*'!*=! ,$-1! $F&::&*':! ,$(0C9&*'!C-0:$(!<2!+&'(!?$'$,-9*,:;!>'3#,'-3&*'-@$F'#,84$%*,I2"*6;!

)-&,5! j;!L;! U67745! 36! 3KV;!S&((#'$ 71#@$ /*232$ *7$+&'($ 8#'#,-3#($ #@#/3,&/&34=! T$9,&$D$(!33a@a67375! =,*F! %&'([%-9C#\! #99M\aa+++;+&'([+-9C#;*,?a(*C0F$'9:a#&(($'[=0$1[C*:9:[*=[+&'([?$'$,-9$([$1$C9,&C&92a!

)0<1&C! ]9&1&92! 8*FF&::&*'! *=! "$.-:;! U67375! @! @7V;! )1?@&/$ ),&*,&3&#2$ -'($ 3"#$ _*@#$ *7$C*56#3&3&*'=! T$9,&$D$(! 6a33a67335! =,*F! "$.-:! E9-9$! )]8\!#99M\aa+++;M0C;:9-9$;9.;0:a-<*09aC*FF&::&*'$,:a:F&9#$,F-'aM,$:$'9aMMajBSPp7@@737;M(=!

51

)0?-5!/;!U6737V;!"#$!AFM*,9-'C$!*=!8*F<&'$(!82C1$!R$'$,-9&'?!)1-'9:!&'!A'9$?,-9&'?!^-,?$!^$D$1:!*=!%A'(!)*+$,!R$'$,-9&*';!!"#$F@#/3,&/&34$g*1,'-@;!

",$<&1C*CJ5!S;!U6774V;!H6#-I&'8$!,13"$3*$%&'($)*+#,=!8L!`*+$!A':9&909$;!

X8B^!B'$,?2;!U677K5!36!3V;!TUUb$%>'($>'3#8,-3&*'$!#-5$`&'-@$_#6*,3=!T$9,&$D$(!33a6a!67375! =,*F! XC$1! B'$,?2\!#99M\aa+++;.C$1$'$,?2;C*FaE&9$8*11$C9&*'L*C0F$'9:a(*C:a8T)%&'(A'9$?,-9&*'E90(2>&'-1T$M*,9;M(=!

!

!

52

XI. APPENDIX "#$%&'CHM()'B>*P'*-<,+#<&9'F.<&/<,#%'6,/9'"L4$,/&';#3#N,<O'Z'I<,%,c#<,./'>#<&RR'

UZTB^5!%&'(!)*9$'9&-1!K7SV'

;#3#N,<O'?56A'

I<,%,c#<,./'>#<&'

0<#<&' ;#3#N,<O'?56A'

I<,%,c#<,./'>#<&'

P1-<-F-! 33K! @6h! Z$<,-:J-! 43H5444! QQh!P,&d*'-! 37547Q! @6h! Z$D-(-! H56QH! @@h!P,J-':-:! 45677! @@h! Z$+!

`-FM:#&,$!653@G! @Yh!

8-1&=*,'&-! @Q5337! @Gh! Z$+!/$,:$2! 3@6! @6h!8*1*,-(*! @KH5667! @Kh! Z$+!S$.&C*! Q4657K@! @Kh!8*''$C9&C09! 6H! @3h! Z$+!k*,J! 6G5HK3! @@h!L$1-+-,$! 37! @3h! Z*,9#!

8-,*1&'-!K7K! @Qh!

>1*,&(-! 7! @6h! Z*,9#!L-J*9-!

HH7534Y! QQh!

R$*,?&-! 3@7! @@h! W#&*! GQ5467! @6h!A(-#*! 3K57HY! @@h! WJ1-#*F-! G3Y5K66! Q7h!A11&'*&:! 6Q45KK6! @Gh! W,$?*'! 6H5377! @Qh!A'(&-'-! 3QK566K! @Qh! )$'':21D-'&

-!@5@7H! @@h!

A*+-! GH75H3Q! Q3h! T#*($!A:1-'(!

QH! @Hh!

j-':-:! 4G65@H3! QQh! E*09#!8-,*1&'-!

3KG! @3h!

j$'90CJ2! Y3! @@h! E*09#!L-J*9-!

KK65Q36! QQh!

^*0&:&-'-! Q37! @3h! "$''$::$$! @74! @@h!S-&'$! 3356G3! @Qh! "$.-:! 354735G@

7!@4h!

S-,21-'(! 35QK@! @@h! ]9-#! 3@537Q! @6h!S-::-C#0:$99:!

3576K! @Hh! N$,F*'9! 654Q4! @Gh!

S&C#&?-'! G457Q6! @@h! N&,?&'&-! 35H4@! @Qh!S&''$:*9-! QK456H3! @4h! %-:#&'?9*'! 3K5QH4! @Qh!S&::&::&MM&! 7! ZaP! %$:9!

N&,?&'&-!35KK@! @Gh!

S&::*0,&! 6HQ5@GG! @Qh! %&:C*':&'! 37@5HGH! @@h!S*'9-'-! 4QQ577Q! @6h! %2*F&'?! GG657H@! Q7h!IJ0J'".<#%' (XW]VYWQ]V' ]Xd' ! ! !!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!33 (NREL, Wind Potential 80M)

53

"#$%&'CHM!)'>&/&_#$%&'F.4<8.%,.'0<#/9#49-'$O'0<#<&R]'

0<#<&' G+.L/<' e&#4' 0<#<&' G+.L/<' e&#4'P,&d*'-! 3Gh! 676G! Z$+!/$,:$2! 66;G7h! 6763!8-1&=*,'&-! @@h! 6767! Z$+!S$.&C*! 67h! 6767!8*1*,-(*! 67h! 6767! Z$D-(-! 67h! 673G!8*''$C9&C09! 6@h! 6767! Z$+!k*,J! 6Qh! 673@!L&:9,&C9! *=!8*10F<&-!

67h! 6767! Z*,9#!8-,*1&'-!

36;G7h! 6763!

L$1-+-,$! 67h! 6734! Z*,9#!L-J*9-o!

37h! 673G!

`-+-&&! 67h! 6767! W,$?*'! 6Gh! 676G!A11&'*&:! 6Gh! 676G! )$'':21D-'&-! Kh! 6767!S-::-C#0:$99:! 3Gh! 6767! T#*($!

A:1-'(!3Yh! 6734!

S-,21-'(! 67h! 6766! E*09#!L-J*9-o!

37h! 673G!

S-&'$! Q7h! 673H! "$.-:! 375777!S%!

676G!

S&C#&?-'! 37h! 673G! ]9-#o! 67h! 676G!S&''$:*9-! 6Gh! 676G! N$,F*'9o! 37h! 673@!S&::*0,&! 3Gh! 6763! N&,?&'&-o! 36h! 6766!S*'9-'-! 3Gh! 673G! %-:#&'?9*'! 3Gh! 6767!Z$+!`-FM:#&,$!

6@;K7h! 676G! %&:C*':&'! 37h! 673G!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!34 (Energy, States with Renewable Portfolio Standards)

54

K,2L4&'CHM()'*>;="'6,/9'a#O-!

!

!

*bL#<,./'()'*+,--,./-'5.9&%!

!"#$#%&'()(*+,)$-#',.$+/$(0,&*#0$12,3$4(11+)#5$678##5$9+#/:,;/:<$=>?@@AB$"#$!F*($1! M,$:$'9$(! <$1*+! C-M90,$:! 9#$! ,$1-9&*':#&M! <$9+$$'! 9*9-1!$F&::&*':!!"#$% *=!M*1109-'9! &! &'! 9$,,&9*,2! ,! -9!#*0,! 3! -?-&':9! 9#$! 9*9-1!#*0,12!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&#$% U&'!S%#V5!-D$,-?$!#*0,12!9$FM$,-90,$!'#$%-'(!&9:!:b0-,$!'!#$5!-'(!-!D$C9*,!*=!*9#$,!C*'9,*1!D-,&-<1$:!($)!

!*"#5! 9#$! C*$==&C&$'9! *=! &'9$,$:95! C-M90,$:! 9#$! F-,?&'-1! C#-'?$! &'!$F&::&*':! &'! $-C#! 9$,,&9*,2!(0$! 9*!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*';! !"#&:! C*$==&C&$'9!C-M90,$:!9#$!-F*0'9!*=!$F&::&*':!,$(0C$:!&'!M*0'(:aM*0'(:a9*':!=*,!EW65! ZWX! -'(! 8W6! =*,! $-C#! S%#! *=! +&'(! ?$'$,-9&*'! &'! -! ?&D$'!9$,,&9*,2;!!!

W9#$,!C*'9,*1!D-,&-<1$:!'$$(!9*!<$!&'9,*(0C$(!&'!*,($,!9*!-CC*0'9!=*,!*'?*&'?! 9,$'(:! 9#,*0?#*09! 9#$! :90(2! M$,&*(! +#&C#5! &=! 1$=9!0'-CC*0'9$(5! +*01(! ,$:019! &'! -'! $,,*'$*0:! &'9$,M,$9-9&*'! *=! *"#;!!"$FM$,-90,$!&:!-!:9,*'?!,$M,$:$'9-9&D$!*=!9*9-1!1*-(5!+#&C#!C-'!&FM-C9!

55

9#$!-F*0'9!*=!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!-11*+$(!*'9*!-!:2:9$F;! !P((&9&*'-1125!(-2!*=!+$$J!-'(!F*'9#12!=&.$(!$==$C9:!-,$!&'9,*(0C$(!9*!-CC*0'9!=*,!C#-'?$:!*=!+#&C#!9$FM$,-90,$!F-2!,$M,$:$'9!9*9-1!1*-(;!!`*0,12!=&.$(!$==$C9:! -,$! &'C10($(! 9*! ,$M,$:$'9! <*9#! (&==$,$'C$:! *=! 1*-(! (0,&'?! -!?&D$'!(-2!U-9!-!?&D$'!9$FM$,-90,$V!-'(!9*!-CC*0'9!*=!9#$!(&0,'-1!+&'(!D-,&-9&*'!*D$,!9#$!C*0,:$!*=!9#$!(-2;! !W'!-D$,-?$5!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!&:!:9,*'?$:9! &'! 9#$! $-,12! F*,'&'?! #*0,:! +#$'! $1$C9,&C&92! ($F-'(! -'(!$F&::&*':!-,$!1*+$:9;!!!

S*'9#[2$-,!=&.$(!$==$C9:!-,$!&'C10($(!9*!-CC*0'9!=*,!C#-'?$:!&'!+&'(!?$'$,-9&*'!C-M-C&92!9#,*0?#*09!9#$!:90(2!9&F$=,-F$;!!!

!

"#$%&'CHMR)'*-<,+#<,./'>&-L%<-'8.4'*+,--,./-'>&9LN<,./-'84.+'6,/9'S&/&4#<,./'$O'"&44,<.4O'

!

M0@@<8A@3PA99^8-.8 /D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G /D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G /D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G /D%!E9F7G CDH!E9F7G =D%!E8A.7G

;<.:!E2;IG $J%&#cc ("J4&5cc ("J'+'cc ('J+5""cc ($J55#cc ($J"%#cc ("J""+ ("J"#'c ("J%55cc ("J"#5c ("J$4"c ("J"+ccE"J$+&G E"J"'%G E"J"%5G E"J5%'G E"J%+"G E"J$"&G E"J""4G E"J"%4G E"J"4'G E"J""+G E"J"##G "J"%*cc

M0T1!EaG (+$'J$cc $%%*cc (45+J*cc #*4"cc ($+54cc (+$"J+cc ($#J45cc ($%*J4cc ('4&J"cc ($$J#c (5J55c (&%J+cccE5'J'%G E%#J%"G E$%J5+G E&&5J4G E$#'J"G E#$J#+G E*J4'4G E%%J#&G E'4J""G %*J" $#J" *J%&ccc

M0T1% *J#*'cc $"J&5cc *J*5%cc *&J"'cc $5J""cc 5J$$#cc "J$%%cc $J$*'cc 'J%$&cc "J%$&c "J$%'cd "J&%"cccE"J4'%G E"J%"'G E"J$"4G E&J44#G E$J#"$G E"J#*5G E"J"'4G E"J%"%G E"J'%'G E"J%5G E"J$&G "J"#$ccc

À^@!aK ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]072A.8I(]0-@!aK ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07XD;!aK ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07 ]07

DF70@R-8<A.7 %*%+" %*%+" %*%+" $##%" $##%" $##%" +4*" +4*" +4*" $4)'*' $4)'*' $4)'*'L% "J*& "J+% "J5% "J+4 "J5# "J++ "J$% "J'& "J+ "J"+ "J4% "J+#

KL=DM 26/D =N6/D OPN

56

"#$%&'])'B#<,./#%'*+,--,./-'0#1,/2-'!XXQ!

!

/D% CDH =D% /D% CDH =D%N9-F-T- "J&5 " $J&#+ "J44* "J'55 " " "N9-7Y- "J"5 &)"*% "J$** "J&+5 "J%'* " $ $N@<eA.- "J'' 5)### $J*** "J++ "J##$ $* + #[email protected] "J&# " $J$*% "J4$$ "J'*' " " "=-9<[A@.<- "J"$ #)4*')*&4 "J"'% "J&#4 "J$5# %'$ %)"## $)$%4=A9A@-:A "J*& %)5'%)$&& &J$45 $J&5+ "J4+4 5)&#' ')$$& %)&$#=A..0>8<>^8 "J"+ " "J$&* "J&+$ "J%&* " " "X09-U-@0 "J#5 " %J+'% $J%+% "J4&4 " " "a9A@<:- "J%# " "J*'% "J#&5 "J&*' " " "?0A@S<- "J#' " %J'&& $J$'$ "J*4' " " "`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`-T17I<@0 "J$' %+)'** "J%+& "J'%' "J%+$ + $% +C0U!,0@703 "J"+ $5)$#" "J$'& "J&+& "J%&5 & 4 #C0U!20W<>A "J4& $)#'&)4$# 'J%*# $J44& "J5'& *)#+' %)4&4 $)'#*C0U!]A@Y "J$ %)%#+)5"' "J$4 "J&5 "J%'+ &+& ++% ##5CA@8I!=-@A9<.- "J## " %J#$& $J$*5 "J*+4 " " "CA@8I!X-YA8- "J+4 %)4#*)%+5 #J+"& %J&"+ $J$#' $#)55' *)&*$ &)$+%DI<A "J+' $#)'4' #J'%5 %J$4+ $J$"' +' &' $4DY9-IAT- "J'# %)%4$)#5" $J4+' "J5% "J#4$ ')"#% %)"5" $)%54D@0SA. "J"* &)&4%)%+' "J"5+ "J&4 "J%%% &&% $)%'5 4#"P0..739R-.<- "J'+ 5%$)$&4 $J54# "J5+# "J*"% $)+$5 5"4 ###LIA:0!679-.: " " "J"&' "J&## "J$5 " " "/A^8I!=-@A9<.- "J&' " $J$"# "J*5% "J'#' " " "/A^8I!X-YA8- "J&5 &5%)&"+ $J&+' "J4+# "J#"' #'& &"+ $5+M0..07700 "J#% #$)4'4 %J%5% $J"5& "J*#% $$5 #4 &'M0W-7 "J&# $5)&#")+45 $J$'$ "J4"& "J'* %%)"4" $&)*$$ +)5"5Q8-I "J+% *')'54 #J$5& %J"5# $J"4% &&# $&# *5\[email protected] " $$)#+5 "J"&' "J&## "J$5 " ' %\<@S<.<- "J&4 " $J%%& "J4&$ "J'4# " " ";-7I<.S8A. "J"4 &)#&+)5&* "J$%& "J&44 "J%&% '&4 $)&&# +%$;078!\<@S<.<- "J5* 4'%)'&5 4J"4$ %J4#$ $J&%& #)%#" %)"'% 5+%;<7>A.7<. "J*% $)"#5)$%* &J$'& $J&+* "J4+% &)&%5 $)'*4 +%+;3AT<.S "J5$ %)%$&)+%" *J&5 %J#$& $J%&& $')$'4 #)#*& %)4%5Q.<80:!/8-807 "J'' 4")4*")5&* %J%'% $J"+* "J*$% $#+)*'5 4*)+#+ '&)&$+

=A-9!/I-@0!V

;<.:!?0.!E2;IG

MA8-9!KT<77<A.!/-R<.S7KT<77<A.!/-R<.S7!L-80

57

!

About BENTEK Energy, LLC

IBZ"Bj! B'$,?25! ^^85! &:! 9#$! 1$-(&'?! $'$,?2! F-,J$9:! &'=*,F-9&*'!C*FM-'2;!I-:$(!&'!BD$,?,$$'5!8*1*,-(*5!IBZ"Bj!<,&'?:!C0:9*F$,:!9#$!-'-129&C-1! 9**1:! -'(! C*FM$9&9&D$! &'9$11&?$'C$! '$$($(! 9*! F-J$! 9&F$[C,&9&C-15! <*99*F[1&'$! ($C&:&*':! &'! 9*(-2r:! '-90,-1! ?-:! -'(! M*+$,!F-,J$9:;!P((&9&*'-1!&'=*,F-9&*'!-<*09!IBZ"Bj!B'$,?2!&:!-D-&1-<1$!*'!9#$! %$<! -9! +++;<$'9$J$'$,?2;C*F;! O0$:9&*':e! 8*'9-C9! IBZ"Bj!B'$,?2!-9!@7@[4KK[3@67;!!!!"#$%&"'()*+IBZ"Bj!LWBE!ZW"!%PTTPZ"!"`B!P88]TP8k!WT!8WTTB8"ZBEE!W>!"`B! TB)WT"!WT! "`B! AZ>WTSP"AWZ!8WZ"PAZBL! "`BTBAZ;! IBZ"Bj!SPjBE! ZW! %PTTPZ"k5! BX)TBEE! WT! AS)ÂBL5! PE! "W! "`B! ];E;B! W>!PZk! AZ>WTSP"AWZ! 8WZ"PAZBL! AZ! "ÀE! TB)WT"! AZ! 8WZZB8"AWZ!%A"`!"TPLAZR!W>!8WSSWLA"ABE5!BO]A"ABE5! >]"]TBE5!W)"AWZE!WT!PZk! W"`BT! ];E;B;! IBZ"Bj! SPjBE! ZW! BX)TBEE! WT! AS)ÂBL!%PTTPZ"ABE! PZL! BX)TBEE^k! LAE8^PASE! P^^! %PTTPZ"ABE! W>!SBT8`PZ"PIAÂ"k!WT!>A"ZBEE!>WT!P!)PT"A8]^PT!)]T)WEB;!! )(%(&#(+ &,!+ %"'"-&-".,+ ./+ %"&0"%"-1]$ AZ! ZW! BNBZ"! E`P^^!IBZ"Bj! IB! ÂPI^B! >WT! PZk! LATB8"5! AZLATB8"5! E)B8AP^5!AZ8ALBZ"P^5! WT! 8WZEBO]BZ"AP^! LPSPRBE! UAZ8^]LAZR! ^WE"!)TW>A"V! PTAEAZR! W]"! W>! WT! TB^P"BL! "W! "`B! P88]TP8k! WT!8WTTB8"ZBEE!W>!"ÀE!TB)WT"!WT!"`B! AZ>WTSP"AWZ!8WZ"PAZBL!"`BTBAZ5! %`B"`BT! IPEBL! WZ! %PTTPZ"k5! 8WZ"TP8"5! "WT"! WT!PZk!W"`BT!^BRP^!"`BWTk;!!

Date post:	13-Nov-2014
Category:	Documents
Upload:	local2ssm
View:	72 times
Download:	0 times

BENTEK Wind Power Paradox Reduced

Documents