VOLUME 7 - ISSUE 3 SUMMER 2018
Highlighting Brexit’s implications beyond Europe on: Africa, the Caribbean, trade, migration, development, aid, security and gender
Africa’s relations with the UK: Negotiating a post-Brexit landscapePhilani Mthembu, executive director, Institute for Global Dialogue
Time to close a deal is running outLinda McAvan, member of the European Parliament
Will UK leaders engage more with Africa?Tom Cargill, executive director, British Foreign Policy group
BEYOND Brexit
EditorialBrexit leaves no field untouched. Often presented as a EU-UK story, Brexit is much more than that. Elements of its breeding ground are observed throughout the world, and its impact will be felt far beyond Europe.
What characterises this breeding ground? First is a rising scepticism towards multilateralism, as Tom Cargill and Nick Westcott emphasise. Second, is a burgeoning populism (and recourse to referenda to revisit policies). How nationalist approaches and challenges to multilateralism play out can be difficult to predict. Nonetheless, the resilience of multilateralism should not be underestimated, particularly regionally, including in Europe. On three recent dossiers – safeguarding the Iran nuclear deal, countering US posturing around trade wars, and negotiating Brexit – the EU seems relatively united. In relation to Brexit, the systematic way in which the Commission’s Brexit Task Force is preparing for an ‘orderly withdrawal’, and in which the European Council stands behind Ireland, commands respect even from fervent Brexiteers. Negotiating Brexit is a difficult task for both sides, and a general fatigue risks slipping in. Yet, the stakes remain high, so a collective alertness remains de mise throughout the summer months.
Brexit will have consequences – both positive and negative – for many actors, in Europe and beyond. Particularly concerned are developing countries and non-state actors, such as international NGOs, traders from the Global South, refugees seeking a safe haven in a smaller EU or ambitious ‘Global Britain’, and policymakers and civil servants worldwide. Brexit means the departure from the EU of an influential security, aid, trade, and development player, and a range of actors will have to take steps to adapt to the emerging reality. Of course, the EU and UK have no monopoly on global events. Many more partners and actors will affect the destiny of Africa and the Caribbean, as Philani Mthembu, Philippe Darmuzey, and David Jessop write.
Also, it is not impossible that the actual withdrawal of the UK, foreseen for 29 March 2019, may be significantly delayed or not occur at all. This remark may surprise you. But the political environment, including in the UK, where a small majority government is working hard to reconcile diverging views and win a parliamentary vote in autumn, is so fragile that we cannot exclude Brexit becoming disorderly (rather than agreed), delayed, or even being dropped altogether. A request for extra time and even a ‘Breconsider’ are thus real possibilities. Despite the two years that have elapsed since the vote to leave, the variables around departure are still so undefined that all authors here have been forced into a degree of speculation. Anything else would be disingenuous or quickly overtaken by events.
Europe’s position in the world, and global relations with Europe, will depend on how judiciously four questions are confronted: Can opportunities be capitalised upon? Can continuity be maintained in key areas? Can threats be mitigated? What are the negotiators’ priorities? Timing will be essential, too, particularly on under-emphasised issues such as Africa, development, and international cooperation. A sense of urgency is what led us, in spite of all the speculation, to facilitate a collective reflection resulting in this special issue. With Simon Duke, we conclude that the stakes are high, and with Linda McAvan, that time is running out.
Don’t let the tight agenda be an incentive to read in a rush. Because when time is pressing, long-term thinking is compromised, and the impact on affected actors worldwide neglected. This is precisely what we tried to avoid in going ‘Beyond Brexit’. ECDPM will continue to follow this tentacular dossier from different perspectives, and we welcome feedback and engagement in further debate. Indeed this may not be the last Great Insights issue to feature this moving target.
Guest editorsEmmanuel De Groof, policy officer and Andrew Sherriff, head of programme European External Affairs, ECDPM
ECDPM’s Great Insights magazine offers a quick and accessible summary of cutting-edge analysis on international cooperation and Europe-Africa relations. It includes an independent overview of analysis and commentary from a wide variety of experts and high-level officials and provides updates on policy debates in Africa and Europe.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of individual authors. Articles reflect analysis as of May 2018.
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Great Insights |Summer 2018 3
2 Editorial
4TheBrexitBox
Perspectives
5 Africa,EuropeandBritainafterBrexit PhilippeDarmuzey,honorarydirectorofthe EuropeanCommission
8 WillUKleadersengagemorewithAfrica? TomCargill,executivedirector,BritishForeign Policygroup
11 Breakingaway?Thedevelopingworldandthe futureofmultilateralism NicholasWestcott,directoroftheRoyalAfrican Society14 Africa’srelationswiththeUK:Negotiatinga post-Brexitlandscape PhilaniMthembu,executivedirectoratthe InstituteforGlobalDialogue
16 Choicematrix:FutureEU-UKcollaborationon internationalcooperation AndrewSherriff,headofprogramme,and EmmanuelDeGroof,policyofficer,European ExternalAffairsprogramme,ECDPM
Development
18 Timetocloseadealisrunningout LindaMcAvan,memberoftheEuropean Parliament
21 Tothepoint:UK-EUcoordinationforthepoor TamsynBarton,formerchiefexecutiveof Bond,theUKnetworkfororganisationsworking oninternationaldevelopment
24 TheimpactofBrexitonaid:Divorceor marriageofconvenience? IlianaOlivié,senioranalystandAitorPérez, seniorresearchfellowattheElcanoRoyal Institute
EU and UK Positions
27 EuropeanCommissionslidesrelatedto Brexitchoices PresentedbyChiefNegotiatorEuropeanCommission MichelBarnier
28 TheBrexitnegotiations:Whothinkswhat? AselectiveanalysisofUKandEUpositions EmmanuelDeGroof,policyofficer,European ExternalAffairsprogramme,ECDPM
Trade
30 IncreaseduncertaintyforachangingCaribbean DavidJessop,consultantfortheCaribbeanCouncil
33 How‘totradeornottotrade’isthequestionfor thirdcountriesafterBrexit SanBilal,headofprogramme,andSeanWoolfrey, policyofficer,TradeandAgriculturaltransformation programme,ECDPM
36 Developingcountriesagri-foodtradeafterBrexit AlanMatthews,professoremeritus,TrinityCollege Dublin
Migration, gender and security
38 BrexitcouldmakeUKmigrationcontrolinthe Mediterraneanevenharder GiacomoOrsini,post-doctoralresearcher, UniversitécatholiquedeLouvain
41 Europe’sgenderactionbeyondBrexit GillAllwood,professoratNottinghamTrentUniversity
44 Highstakes,Brexit,securityanddefenceSimonDuke,professorattheEuropeanInstituteof PublicAdministration
Contents
4 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
The Brexit BoxbyAndrewSherriffandEmmanuelDeGroof
The‘Brexitbox’,onthecoverofthisspecialissuelikenedtoPandora’sboxofGreekmythology,representsalessfatalisticandhopefullymoreconstructiveoutlookonthefuture.Asyet,thatfutureismaskedbyasmokescreenintheformofaquestionmark.Inspiteoftheuncertainty,wecananticipatethatBrexitmayhavepositive,neutralandnegativeeffects.
Somesmokeelementsrepresentpotentialbeneficialeffects.Inthefieldoftrade,AlanMatthewswritesthatBrexitmayindirectly‘improvethepositionofdevelopingcountriescompetingwithEUexportersontheUKmarket’.NicholasWestcottobservesthat‘forAfricaandotherdevelopingcountries,Brexitisagoldenopportunitytosecurebetteraccess,greaterprotection,andmoreaidfromBritain’.Inadifferentfield,gender,GillAllwoodseemstosuggestthatthedepartureoftheUK(seenasachampionofgendermainstreamingindevelopmentcooperation)mightparadoxicallystrengthentheEU’sgenderawareness.Indiplomacy,TomCargillseesopportunitiesforUKengagementinAfrica,butonlyiftheUKinvestsinitsowncapacity.
‘Businessasusual’oramixedoutcomeisrepresentedbyothersmokeplumes.Inthefieldofsecurity,SimonDukeexplainsthatbecausetheUKhas‘exaggerateditscontributiontoCSDPoperations’,thelossfortheEUcausedbyBrexitmaybelessthansomeassume,particularlyinoperationsontheAfricancontinent.Inthenon-competitivefieldofaid–apartfromthedevaluationofthesterling–Britishcontributionsarelikelytoremainstableafterthetransition,lianaOliviéandAitorPérezpredict.Thequestionisonlyhowandviawhatchannelsmoneywillbedisbursed.TherearemanifoldwaysfortheEUandtheUKtocontinuetheircollaboration,asourchoicematrixindicates(cf.page16).Herethefuturewillinpartbeamatterofpolicypreference.
TheshadowofthequestionmarkrepresentspotentialrisksfortheUKandtheEU,andbeyond.Threatsloomall-round.TheEUwillfeelnotonlya‘gapinthebudget’,butalsothelossoftheUKasarecogniseddiplomaticactoranddevelopmentplayer,LindaMcAvanwrites.TheUKwillfacelogisticalchallengesinmanagingmigrationwithouttheEU,asGiacomoOrsinidetails.Lookingbeyondareductiveshort-termfocusontheEUandtheUK,TamsynBartonpointsouttheneedfor‘parallelandcomplementaryUKandEUprogrammes[to]reducepoverty’,andbothNicholasWestcottandPhilippeDarmuzeycallforalong-
termperspectivetomitigaterisksandsuccessfullyenvisagehowthingscouldbeafter‘thedustsettles’.
Thesmoke-ejectingBrexitboxwasopenedbythereferendumof23June2016.Itwillcloseon29March2019,bywhichtimeawithdrawalagreementmustbereachedtoavoida‘cliff-edge’Brexit.Thefollowingday,theboxwillforcefully,perhapsindefinitely,beopenedagain.ThetimeuntilMarch2019representsthecurrentwindowofbothopportunityandthreat.Untilthen,thinkersandpractitionersalike,fromEuropeandbeyond,candiscernandmakeuseofconstructivebuildingblockswhiletheyarestillwithingrasp.
Atthetimeofwriting,thesecondphaseofthenegotiations,focusedonfutureEU-UKrelations,hadstartedbutrathertimidly.Basicchoicesregardingthenatureofthefundamentalframeworkhadyettobeagreed.Thisuncertaintyaffectsmany,as‘embassiesofdevelopingcountries[are]keentoknowwhethertheywillbeabletotradewiththeUKonthesameterms’,LindaMcAvanwrites.DavidJessoplooksathowCaribbeanexportersofgoodsandservicesmightdealwithuncertainty.Bytakingawait-and-seeapproach,AlanMatthewswrites.EveniftheUKacquirestherighttorenegotiatetradeandotheragreementsuntiltheendofthetransitionin2020(asthecurrentdraftwithdrawalagreementforesees),thirdcountrieswillexpectclarityontheEU-UKrelationbeforeventuringintosuchnegotiations,asSanBilalandSeanWoolfreyobserve.
Europe’sandtheUK’spositionintheworld,andglobalrelationswithEurope,willbeinfluencedbywhether,andhowjudiciously,theBrexitboxisusedtoconfrontpendingquestionsinthelittletimethatremains.Tothispoint,topicsbeyondtheEU-UKstoryhavebeensadlyabsentfromthetoptableofBrexitdiscussions.
ThepositionsrelatedtoAfrica,development,andinternationalcooperationmorewidelyhavebeenheldhostagetothedynamicsofthewidernegotiations.Yet,theUK(traditionallyastrongglobalactorinthesefields)hasprofileditselfontheseissuesearlyinthenegotiations.Recentlyitputforwardpeaceandsecurity,humanitarianassistance,andmigrationaspriorityareasoffuturecollaboration.Someofourauthorspointtothepossibilityofmissedopportunitiesduetothelackofmutualprioritisationontheseissues.Tohelpframethedebatewebrieflyreferencesomeoftheofficialpositions(cf.p.28),alsotocompensatefortheabsenceofhigh-levelpoliticalcontributions,whichisunusualforGreatInsightsbutmightbeexplainedbytheuncertaintyandunder-prioritisationmentioned.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 5
Africa, Europe and Britainafter Brexit The UK’s withdrawal from the EU, set for 29 March 2019, confronts the EU with its first separation since the launch of the European project in the 1950s. In today’s global world, Brexit is certain to bring adjustment costs: for Britain, for the EU, and for the world economy. EU external relations will be particularly affected. Interaction between Europe and Africa will gradually have to be thought up anew.
ByPhilippeDarmuzey
AnewglobalandEuropeanset-upInthedecadeahead,EuropeandAfricawillneedtocomeupwithnewpartnershipstrategiesthataremanageableforasmallerEUandseizetheopportunitiesarisingfromtheBrexitvacuum.AddressingthehugechallengeposedbydemographicandmigrationtrendswillbeamajortaskfortheEUintheaftermathofBrexit.Demography,development,climatechange,security,andgeopoliticswillcontinuetoshapemigrationwithinandfromAfrica.ThenewworldorderandAfricandemographicsbeyond2025compeltheEUtoreconsidertherelevanceofitspartnershiparrangementswithAfrica.CurrentlytheseareformalisedmainlyintheACP-EUCotonouPartnershipAgreement,theJointAfrica-EUStrategy(JAES),andtheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicypartnershipwithNorthernAfrica.TherisksandopportunitiesbroughtbyBrexitwilldependontheconditionsoftheUK’swithdrawalanditsfuturerelationshipwiththeEU.Thecurrent
ambiguityofLondon’spoliticalstrategyandtheveryrealpossibilityofdelaysorcrisesaffectingthenegotiationssuggestthatbothsideswillneedalongperiodofadjustment.Businessesandinternationalpartnersareunlikelytoknowthenewpost-BrexitpatternofUKeconomicrelationsbefore2025.ThisbodespoorlyforBritain,Europe,EU-Africarelations,andworldprospects.
Britain:Aninward-lookingcountryoranewglobalactor?ThecampaignleadinguptothereferendumofJune2016revealedthatpartsofBritishsocietyhavebecomemoreinwardlookingandhostiletowardsimmigrantsandtheEU.Ontheexternalscene,thisyear’sCommonwealthSummit,heldinLondoninApril,tookplaceagainstabackdropofscepticism.FewfounditcrediblethattheCommonwealthforumcouldofferanadequateframeworkfortheUK’sproposednewroleasaglobalhuboutsidetheEU,withLondonasthe‘SingaporeontheThames’.TheBritishambitionto
Illustration: ©Sébastien Thibault
6 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
becomeanewglobaleconomicactor,moreover,ishardtoreconcilewiththecallsof‘Brexiteers’todisconnecttheUKfromitslinkstotheworld’slargesttradebloc.Understandably,manyworldactorshavehaddifficultyperceivingthesubtletiesdifferentiatingastatusas‘àlacarteEUmember’and,asMayhasvariouslydescribedit,“adeepandspecial”or“ambitious”partnership.Economicindicators,meanwhile,signaltheuntenabilityoftheBritishgovernment’sposition.Thelatesteconomicforecast,March2018,estimatedUKeconomicgrowthatjust1.5%,thelowestlevelamongallEUmemberstates.
TheEuropeanchallenge:Disintegrationversusreconstruction,fragilityversusresilienceFutureEUexternalactiontowardsAfricawilldependonEurope’scapacitytoovercomeitsownpoliticalfragilityandthecentrifugalforcesaffectingitsNorth-SouthandEast-Westaxesofmembers.Inabrilliantconclusiontohisbook,AfterEurope,IvanKrastevdescribesthereversaloffortunesthatoccurredin2016-2017,whenmostobserverswerepredictingtheendoftheEuropeanproject:“[T]hevariouscrisestheEUisgoingthroughhavecontributed,muchmorethananyofthe(so-called)cohesionpoliciesimplementedbyBrussels,tostrengtheningthefeelingthatEuropeansareallstakeholdersinthesamepoliticalcommunity.”Byoptimisingcross-fertilisationinregionalintegrationprocesses,EuropeandAfricacantogetherbenefitfromthelessonsBrexitteachesaboutresilience.
TheagendaforchangeinEU-AfricarelationsBrexitwillunleashnewchallengesandbringopportunitiesforchangeinseveralkeyareasofEurope-Africarelations,inparticular:• TheshapingandreshapingofEUpoliciesindomainswhere
Britainusedtoplayaleadingrole,constructiveorobstructive;suchasdevelopment,trade,migration,defence,security,andglobalissues.
• TheEU’s2021-2027budget,forwhichmodernisationandreformsmightbemoresmoothlypursuedafterBrexit.Theaimisto“make[thebudget]fitforthechallengesofthe21stcentury”.ThiscouldmeanashiftfromagricultureandregionaldevelopmenttoEurope’snewchallenges,suchasmigration,defence,security,andclimatechange.ThecurrentEuropeanconsensusontheneedtosupportyouthmobilityisaprioritythatcouldbetransposabletofutureEurope-Africacooperationstrategies.
• There-negotiationoftheEU-ACPpartnershipframework.August2018willsignalthestartofnegotiationstowardsapost-CotonouACP-EUpartnershipbeyond2020.EuropeneedstorecogniseAfricaastheoverarchingpoliticalprioritywithintheACPgroup.Yet,noreallinkhasyetbeenmadebetweentherenewaloftheCotonouAgreementandtheAfrica-EUpartnershipformalisedintheJAES.Signedin2007,theJAESwastosetthestageforanewpoliticalrelationshipbetweenthetwocontinents.However,itsresultshavebeenmixed.
FortheEU,BrexitoffersanopportunitytoputanendtotwomajorshortcomingsinAfrica-EUrelations.Thefirstisthefragmentation
ofAfricanparticipation,asCotonouislimitedtosub-SaharanAfrica(only48ofthe54AUmemberstates).ThesecondistheoveralllackofambitionintheJAES,despiteitsinnovativeprincipletoconnectEuropetothewholeofAfrica.Withscatteredresourcesandnolegallybindingprovisionstoaccompanypoliticaldeclarations,theJAEShasfailedtoevolvefurtherthanacomplexmulti-institutionalframeworkbetweentheEU,theAfricanUnion,anditsregionaleconomiccommunities.
Thepost-BrexitEU-AfricapartnershipshouldencompasstheAfricancontinentasawhole,ratherthanjustthesub-SaharansegmentoftheACPpuzzle.Migration,arootcauseofBrexit,isbothachallengeandapriorityandwillconnectEuropeandAfricafortheforeseeablefuture.ThetimeisripetoliftthepoliticalambitionofEurope-Africarelationsuptothelevelofaneffectivestrategicalliance,builtonthispriorityaswellasotherareasofconcern.
KeyareasoffutureAfrica-Europe-UKinteractionInthecurrentstateofplayofthenegotiations,itishardtopredictwhatthefuturewillbringforEUexternalactioninAfrica.Themainareasofinterestare,however,clear.Development:TheUKistheworld’ssecond-largestbilateralforeignaiddonor,aftertheUnitedStates.ItprovidedODAtomorethanahundreddevelopingcountriesin2017.ArecessionintheUKwouldweakenitsabilitytofulfilitsaidanddevelopmentcommitments.TherearesomepresumptionsthattheUK’sdevelopmentpolicywillremainalignedwithEUinterestsandpoliciesafterBrexit,asthegoalsofEUaidreflectBritishinterests:prioritisingglobalpovertyreduction,combatingclimatechange,andaddressingstatefragility(seealsothearticlesbyTamsynBartonandLindaMcAvaninthisissue).Trade:TheUK’sprimarypost-Brexitfocuswillbeonstrengtheningandexpandingtraderelations.Theprospectofano-dealcrisisinautumn2018issobering.Ineconomicterms,theAfricancountriesmostreliantontradewiththeUK–Nigeria,SouthAfrica,Egypt,andKenya–wouldsuffermostiftheUKfallsintoarecession.BrexitdoesnotdiminishthecaseforacontinuedcloseassociationwithAfrica,asestablishedbytheCotonouAgreementandregionaleconomicpartnershipagreements(EPAs)(seeKennes,2018).Intheshortterm,AfricaanditsregionaleconomiccommunitiesmaybeunabletorenegotiatetheireconomicandtradearrangementswithBritainortoreviewtheirpositionsintheEPAswiththeEU.ButBrexitcouldopensomepolicyspaceforamoreambitiousframeworkthatwouldgraduallycoverallAfrica-EUrelations,allowingincreasedtradeanddevelopmentcoherencebetweensub-SaharanAfricaandNorthernAfrica(ontradegenerally,seethearticlesbyAlanMatthewsandSanBilal&SeanWoolfreyinthisissue).Securityanddefence:WithdrawaloftheUKfromtheEUCommonSecurityandDefencePolicyhasimplicationsfortheEU’ssecurityactivitiesinAfrica.ItwillaffectEUfinancialcontributionstotheAfricanPeaceandSecurityArchitecture,andthusdonors’abilitytomaintainsupportlevels.Ontheotherhand,theEUseemslikelytospeedupitsintegrationprocessondefenceandsecurity,
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 7
basedonthePermanentStructuredCooperation(PESCO)initiativewhich,onlyafewmonthsago,wasnotconsideredcredible.Britainimpededever-closerunioninthisarea.Post-Brexitunexpectedopportunitiesmaythusarise.InJune2018,theEuropeandefenceministersdiscussedaproposaltoopenPESCOtocountriesoutsidetheEU,suchastheUnitedStates,Norway,andtheUK.ThisoffersnewprospectsforEUexternalaction,especiallyintheframeworkofEurope-Africapeaceandsecurityrelations(onsecuritycooperationafterBrexit,seethearticlebySimonDukeinthisissue).Migration:AnumberofpoliticalandtechnicalobstaclestoimmigrationfromAfricacouldarisefollowingtheUK’swithdrawalfrom,potentially,allfourcirculationfreedomsprovidedbythesingleEuropeanmarket.Therecent‘Windrushgeneration’scandaldrewattentiontothefragilityofBritishimmigrationpolicyandpublicservicemanagementdatingbacktoTheresaMay’sdaysashomesecretary.LackofclarityonthepresentorfutureresidencestatusofimmigrantsoriginatinginAfricanCommonwealthstatesentailsseriousrisks(onmigrationafterBrexit,seethearticlebyGiacomoOrsiniinthisissue).Regionalintegration:BrexitchallengestheEuropeanintegrationprojectandeventheEU’scredibilityinpromotingregionalintegration.However,italsopresentslearningopportunitiesforregionalintegrationinAfrica.TheUK,too,isunlikelytoabandonregionalintegrationasapriorityinAfrica.Furthermore,itseemslikelytocontinuesupportingthelinkbetweentradeanddevelopmentpursuedintheEPAs.Globalissues:TheUKhasbeenproactiveonglobalissues,likeclimatechangeandtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).ItwillcertainlywanttoretainthisinfluencethroughcloselinkswiththeEU.Indeed,BrexitthreatenstheUK’sreputationasaglobalagendasetter.WithouttheabilitytoprojectpowerthroughtheEU,Britain’sinfluenceinotherinternationalforumswilldiminish.
Overall,whilethenewBritishgovernmentwillfocusonsecuringshort-termeconomicbenefits,Africancountrieswillincreasinglyturntowardsotherfundingandtradingpartners,suchasChina,Brazil,andIndia.TheremainingEUcountrieswillneedtocounterBritain’sexitbyincreasedengagementintrade,development,andsecuritypoliciesinAfrica.ThedraftMFFconfirmsanEUambitiontostaythecourseofstrengtheningitsrelationswithAfrica.
RevampingEurope-AfricarelationsA2018reportbytheAddisAbabaInstituteforPeaceandSecurityStudiesaptlystates,“TheEUmotto,‘UnitedinDiversity’,appliestodaymoresothanever…InthemidstofuncertaintyinEurope,Africashould,morethanever,viewitsdiversityasanopportunityforgreaterregionalintegration.”
Fourdirectionsofactionandresearchcouldrenderpost-BrexitEUexternalactionmorefocusedonthenewchallengesfacingAfricaandEurope.First,EuropeanandAfricanintegrationprocessesneedtobereactivatedthroughincreasinglyeffectivecommunication
andparticipationofcitizensonbothsidesoftheMediterranean.Greateryouthmobilitycouldcontributetothisgoal.
Second,drasticreconsiderationneedstobegiventothenegotiationsonthefollow-uparrangementsfortheACP-EUpartnership.Thepartnershipneedstobeadaptedtonewrealitiesintermsofcostsandefficiency;institutionalcomplexityshouldbereduced;andamajorsimplificationandunificationlaunchedoffinancialinstrumentsincludingtheEuropeanDevelopmentFund(EDF).Furthermore,post-2020ACP-EUpoliticaldialogueanddevelopmentcooperationinstrumentsneedtobeeffectivelyregionalised,withtheadditionofNorthernAfricatomakethenewpartnershipgeostrategicallyinclusive.
Third,inaworldofmultiplealliances,theglobalchallengesfacedbyEuropeandAfricaprovidenewimpetusfortheircontinent-to-continentrelations.TheJAESshouldbeupgradedtoalegally-bindingallianceformutualassistanceonpeace,defence,andsecurity;onmigrationandmobility;andonsustainabledevelopment.TheEUandAU,andtheirstrategicallies,includingBritain,shouldengagecollectivelyonthekeychallengesofthe21stcentury.Last,butnotleast,strategicthinkingisneededonUK-EUrelationsbeyond2030.OncethedustofBrexitsettles,andBritainandEuropehavecompletedtheircouplestherapy,anewEU-UKrelationshipintheformofanassociationagreementcanbeconsidered(assuggestedbyEuropeanparliamentarianGuyVerhofstadt).Hence,withoutprejudicetotheUK’ssovereignty,theacquisofEuropeanintegrationandexternalaction,includingBritain’scontributions,wouldnotbelost.
ReferencesKennes,Walter(2018),HowBrexitmayaffectACP-EUrelations:Anhistoricalperspective.DiscussionPaper220.Maastricht:ECDPM.http://ecdpm.org/DP220
AbouttheauthorPhilippeDarmuzeyishonorarydirectoroftheEuropeanCommission.Heresearches,teaches,andwritesonEurope-Africarelations,thesecurity-developmentnexus,anddevelopmentcooperation,partneringwithinstitutionssuchastheUniversityofBordeauxIV-Montesquieu,variousEuropeanandAmericananalyticalandresearchinstitutesandnetworks(ECDPM,EARN,CERIS,CERDRADI,DENVERU/AfricaToday),andmedianetworks(VOXAfrica).Twitter:@PhDarmuzey
8 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
UK foreign and defence interest in Africa has grown, but is challenged by capacity constraints and political inertia heightened by Brexit. Yet, there is a UK generational and strategic renewal under way in relation to foreign policy issues including Africa, especially around soft power. But it is far from clear if this will emerge post-Brexit and lead to a resurgence of influence for the UK in Africa.
Will UK leaders engage more with Africa?
ByTomCargill
FromaUKdiplomaticanddefenceperspective,AfricahasrisenontheUKagendainrecentyears,albeitfromaverylowbase.FordecadesAfricawasgenerallyseenaseitheranirrelevantbasketcaseordevelopmentproject.Thereisnowgrowingrecognitionthatinaworldofrenewedmultipolarcompetition,thesupportofAfrican
statesisvaluabletotheUK.Moreover,thereisanemerginggenerationofleadershipinsidetheUK’sForeignandCommonwealthOffice(FCO)thathassignificantAfricaexperience.Justastherewasonceaprobablyoverblownperceptionthat‘Arabists’dominateddecision-makingandthoughtintheFCO,thereisnowan‘Africanist’contingent.Thisby
definitionbringsagreaterawarenessoftheopportunitiesandthreatsthatthiscomplexanddivergingcontinentrepresentsfortheUK.AfricacontrolsalmostathirdofUNGeneralAssemblyvotes,andsoonitwillprovide40%oftheworld’spopulation.
UKsecurityanddefencepolicysimilarlyreflectsagrowingappreciationof
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 9
In the UK, a fundamental shift is under way in wider government, both generationally and in worldview, that may tend towards a deeper engagement with African
issues.
theexpandingtraditionalandnon-traditionalthreatstotheUKrootedinonepartofAfricaoranother,whetherinrelationtomigration,climatechange,publichealth,terrorism,ortransnationalcrime.ThisisdemonstratedinUKgovernmentpolicy.The2015StrategicDefenceandSecurityReviewandthe2018NationalSecurityCapabilityReviewbothhighlightedthosethreats,alongwithsomeopportunitiesofferedbyAfricanstates.
Post-Brexit,barringawidespreadeconomicorpoliticalcrisisintheUKorlargepartsofAfrica,thistrendofasteadymoderationinUKforeignanddefenceperspectivesislikelytocontinue.Therewillbeanongoingdifferentiationofpolicytowardsthosecountriesandregionsmovingtowardsorthroughmiddleincomestatus,incontrasttoregionsorcountriesdeemedas‘failing’,orsimplypoor.
Withinthis,threelinkedfactorsarelikelytodrivethenatureofUKdiplomacyinAfrica:theUK’swiderinternationalpositionanddirection,itscapacityandappetiteinAfrica,andthealternativesoftpowerrelationshipsemergingforAfricanstates.
TheUK’swiderinternationalpositionTheUK’swiderinternationalpositionsitsattheveryheartofthechallengescurrentlyfacingthecountry.Whilemuchisbeyondthescopeofthisarticle,underneaththerathersclerotictoplevelpoliticsintheUK,afundamentalshiftisunderwayinwidergovernment,bothgenerationallyandinworldview,thatmaytendtowardsadeeperengagementwithAfricanissues.Thisisdueinparttoaperiodof20yearsorsowhennewandlessreductiveperspectivesonAfricaissuesweremakingtheirwayinto
mainstreampolicydebateintheUK.Butitisalsoafunctionofagrowingawarenessofthefundamentalcultural,demographic,technological,andothershiftsunderwayglobally,andanappetitefortheUKpost-BrexittobemoreproactiveinoptimisingtheseshiftsforthebenefitoftheUK.Insomerespects,foreignanddefencebureaucratsandyoungerpoliticiansseemmoreawareoftheseshiftsthanthemainstreammediaorthoughtleaders.
Yetitisthecurrentpoliticalimpassewhichisironicallycreatingspaceformoreimaginativeandfocusedlongertermthinking.Whetheritwillemergeinpolicypost-Brexitisunclearanddependentonmanyfactors,butifthereissignificantgenerationalleadershipchangeitwilllikelyfavourastrongforeignanddefencefocusonthosepartsofAfrica,suchastheSahel,whichposethegreatestchallenges,aswellasonregions,suchasEastAfrica,thatareattheheartofrenewedmultilateralcompetition.
CapacityandappetiteinAfricaDespiterecentBrexit-relatedincreasesinfunding,includingthereopeningofsmallUKdiplomaticpostsinLesothoandSwaziland,theUKForeignOfficehassufferedlong-termdecline,notjustinnetworksize,butalsoinlanguage
skillsanditsLondon-basedanalytical,administrative,andpolicyfunctions.Inrecentyears,itsAfricafootprintandstaffinghasmoderatelyimprovedinrelationtootherregionalnetworks,butitremainsstretchedtocoveritslargestgeographicregioninasubstantiveway.
Smallerposts,inparticular,arehighlydependentonthequalityofthediplomatsrunningthem,whichbringsinevitablevariabilityinperformance.ThetrendtowardsappointingyoungerdiplomatstoambassadorialpositionshasparticularchallengesinAfricanstateswhereageandauthorityarecloselyintertwined.
Defenceissimilarlyresource-challengedintheUK,withtheexperienceofIraqandAfghanistanstillhangingheavilyoverconsiderationsofpotentialexpeditionarydeploymentsofthetypeprobablyrequiredweretheUKtowishtoprojectpowerunilaterallyinmostofAfrica.Ontheflipside,thereisgrowingawarenessofthevalueofdefenceengagement,assetoutintheUK’s2017DefenceEngagementStrategy.Thishasledtotheincreaseddeploymentofsmallnumbersofmilitarypersonneltosupportregionalandlocalpeace,security,andstabilisationefforts.
ThisculminatedintheUK’scontributionofsignificantnumbersofmilitarypersonnelinsupportofUNpeacekeepinginSomaliaandSudan,adecisionthatreverseddecadesofUKavoidanceofdirectcontributionsofforcestoUNmissions.Again,resourcesallowingsuchactionswilllikelybeexpandedpost-Brexit.Howeverinrelationtobothdiplomacyanddefence,thelossofthemultilateralburden-sharingopportunitiesofferedbyEUmembershipwillplacefargreateronusontheUKtocommit
10 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
itsownresourcestocompensate.Atpresentitisfarfromclearwhetherthereistheappetitetodoso.ThealternativeisacceleratingdiminutionofUKinfluencepost-Brexit,wheninfluencewillbegreatlyrequired.
SoftpowerrelationshipswithAfricanstatesThethirddriveristhelikelyalternativesforAfricaandthesoftpowerthatoftenmediatesthese.AlternativesareexpandingasrivalandemergingpowerscourtAfricanstates,whichthemselveshaveeverfeweremotionalreasonsforaligningwiththeUKonanyparticularissue.TheUK’srecentlossofkeyvotesattheUN,amongothers,onthecontestedChagosIslands,andthelossofitsseatontheUNInternationalCourtofJustice–forthefirsttimeinover70years–wererealwake-upcallsforacountrythathadassumeditcommandedmoresupportinternationally.Africanstatesplayedkeyrolesindecidingboththesematters.
Post-Brexitthechallengewillgrow,asEUmemberstatesdeepenandadvancetheirowncollectiveinterests,sometimesatoddswiththeUKposition.MuchofthegroundworkfordiplomaticengagementinAfrica,aselsewhere,isprovidedbythatsteadydrumbeatofsocial,cultural,andsportinginteractionsemanatingfromarangeofformalandinformalnetworks.
Perhapsmostimportantofthesearelinksoffamilyandpersonalfamiliarity.HistoricallytheUKhasbenefittedsignificantlyinlargepartsofAfrica,particularlyCommonwealthcountries,fromprovidingeducational,business,andleisureopportunitiesforfuturedecision-makerstospendtimeintheUK.At58,moreworldleadershavestudiedintheUKthaninany
othercountry,asignificantnumberofthemfromAfrica.
TheopportunityandencouragementtovisittheUKforbusinesshasbuiltdeeprelationshipsandfamiliaritythatarethebasisforcommonperspectivesonglobalissues.UKinstitutions–fromtheBBCWorldServicetotheBritishCouncil,PremierLeague,FormulaOne,andBritishfashionandmusic–haveplayedanoutsizedroleinsecuringasympathetichearingforUKdiplomatsandpositions.
Yetthecontinuingpowerofallthesesourcesofinfluenceisnowsomewhatinthebalanceforanumberofreasons.ThesignalsbeingsentinternationallyonwhethertheUKisstillawelcomingdestinationforstudy,business,orleisurearemixedatbest.Thelong-termimpactofthisisunclear.Thenatureandqualityofsupportforbusinessandculturalinstitutionstocontinue,letaloneexpandtheirinternationalambitionsdependsuponadelicatebalanceofleadership,support,andencouragement,whichappearsatpresentinsufficientorabsentastheUKgovernmentgrappleswithBrexit.
ChallengeofleadershipThisleadershipchallengesitsattheheartofallthreeofthefactors
outlinedaboveandappliestoissuesofforeignanddomesticpolicyfarwiderthanAfrica.ButithasaspecialresonanceinrelationtoUKpolicytowardssuchacomplexandfastchangingcontinentwhichislikelytoposesomanychallengesaswellasbringopportunitiesfortheUKandthewiderinternationalsysteminthecomingdecades.Asnotedabove,therearespecificreasonsforbelievingthatarenewalinUKstrategicthinkingisunderway,iflargelyhiddenfromview,andthatindividualswithanunderstandingofAfricaareactiveinsuchdiscussions.
Africanissuescertainlywon’tdropofftheagenda,whateverchangesareunderwayintheUK.ButwhetherarealrevitalisationofUKengagementwithAfricanstatesispossibleorevenlikelyisunclearatpresent.MuchdependsonhoweconomicanddemocraticissuesintheUKplayoutafter2020.Inaneraofunprecedentedandgrowingvolatility,intheUKandtheworld,somedeepandprofounduncertaintiesremainthatwillbevitalindeterminingtheimpactofUKpoliciestowardsAfrica.
AbouttheauthorTomCargillisexecutivedirectoroftheBritishForeignPolicyGroup,anewnot-for-profitorganisationcommittedtoimprovingthequalityofnationaldebateontheUK'sinternationalpositionandchoices.Twitter:@tom1cargill
Alternatives are
expanding as rival and
emerging powers court
African states, which
themselves have ever
fewer emotional reasons
for aligning with the UK
on any particular issue.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 11
Breaking away? The developing world and the future of multilateralism Brexit will have unpredictable consequences. The short term may bring little change for developing countries in general and Africa in particular. But in the long term, serious economic and relational changes could weaken them, the UK, and the EU.
ByNicholasWestcott
Illustration: ©Banksy
ConsequencesofBrexitBrexit,initselfanunpredictedevent,willhavemanyunpredictableconsequences,fortheUK,fortheEU,andfortherestoftheworld.Whileallcountrieswillbeimpactedinsomeway,forthosecloselylinkedtotheUKandEUthroughtradeordependentonthemfordevelopmentsupport,theimpactcouldbegreaterthananticipated.
Intheimmediateterm,therewillinprinciplebenomajorfinancialchanges.BoththeUKandtheEUwillcontinuetodevoteasmuchthroughtheirdevelopmentbudgetsasbefore.Theywilljustdoitseparately,thoughthatdisengagementwilltaketime.TheUKhasalreadyhintedatawillingnesstocontinueworkingthroughEUinstitutions,atleastonaselectivebasis(cf.thearticlebyIlianaOliviéandAitorPérezinthisvolume).Thiswouldmakesense.TheUK’sown
DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)ratesEUprogrammesasprettygoodvalueformoney.TheUKalreadyspendslargeamountsthroughothermultilateralorganisations,suchastheWorldBankandUN,andmanagingthe£1billionayear(oftheUK’s£13.4billionaidbudget)currentlyspentthroughtheEUwouldrequiresignificantextrastaffinDFID.Moreover,thefiveprinciplesofUKdevelopmentpolicyoutlinedbyUKpoliticianPennyMordauntina12AprilspeechaligncloselywiththeEU’soverallaidstrategy,whichtheUKplayedanimportantpartinshaping.Whateverthetermsofseparation,thisalignmentislikelytocontinue.Seealsothechoicematrixinthisissueonpage16.
Thetransitionperioduntil2020willallowalittlemoretimetoadjust,duringwhichtradeflowsshouldcontinueunimpeded.Britainwillsticktoits0.7%pledge,thoughtheslower
12 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
For Africa and other developing
countries, Brexit is a golden
opportunity to secure better access,
greater protection, and more aid
from Britain.
economicgrowthresultingfromBrexitwillmakeitworthless.TheOverseasDevelopmentInstitute(ODI)estimatedthatthe10%fallinthevalueofsterlingimmediatelyaftertheBrexitvotewiped$1.9billionoffthedollarvalueoftheUK’sannualoverseasaid(ODI,2017).
Overthenext2-3yearstherewill,nevertheless,beasignificantchangeinrelationsbetweentheUKandthedevelopingworld.Thisrelationshiphasalreadybeenthroughbigchangesinthelast70years,fromEmpiretoCommonwealthandACP.SomeBrexiteersbelievetheUKwill“rediscover”theCommonwealthandbuildanewdeeperrelationshipwiththosecountries.TheCommonwealthSummitmeetingthisAprilagreedonanumberofspecificinitiativesonplastic,girls’education,andmalaria.Butthecommuniquédidnotsuggestatransformativechangeintherelationship.TherewillneverthelessbeaclearshiftinthepowerbalancebetweentheUKandtheemergingeconomiesofAfrica,Asia,theCaribbean,andthePacific.
Inthelongerterm,theglobalrepercussionsofBrexitwilllikelyhavesignificantimpactonpoorercountries’positionintheworld,asthepost-warstructureofmultilateralinstitutionsitselfcomesunderstrainandbeginstofray.
Cuttingaquickdeal?TheUKhaspledgedthatitwillmaintainquota-free,duty-freeaccessforallleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)totheUKmarketundertheWorldTradeOrganizationEverythingbutArms(EBA)agreement.Moreover,theUKInternationalTradeSecretaryispressingforfreetradedealswithemergingeconomiesthatarebetterthanexistingEUones.ButwithcurrenttraderelationsgovernedlargelybyEUagreements,whichwillcontinuetoapplyduringthetransition(theeconomicpartnershipagreements,EPAs),thenatureofsuchpost-BrexitdealswilldependheavilyonthetradedealeventuallycutwiththeEUitself.ItseemsunlikelythatdevelopingcountrieswilloffertheUKgreateraccesstotheirmarketsthantheEU,exceptinareaswheretheyfearnocompetitionfromBritain.Onthecontrary,manywillbe
lookingforgreaterprotectionfortheirdomesticmarketsthantheyhaveundertheEUEconomicPartnershipAgreements(EPAs).
ManyfeelthatintheBrexitcontexttheUKisthedemandeur,andtheyhavethenegotiatingadvantage.ForAfricaandotherdevelopingcountries,Brexitisagoldenopportunitytosecurebetteraccess,greaterprotection,andmoreaidfromBritainthantheyhadwhileitwasintheEU.FortheUK,itisachancetopartnerwiththepotentialAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea(CFTA),approvedby44AfricangovernmentsatthespecialAfricanUnionmeetinginKigaliinMarch2018,therebyopeningawidermarkettoitsexporters.
Buttherearechallenges.WilltheUKbewillingtoofferlooserrulesoforigin,forexample,ontextiles,fordevelopingcountryimports,andgreaterprotectionagainstUKexports,suchasservices,thantheEUcurrentlydoes,evenifitputsBritish
businessatadisadvantage?Itwillbeatoughsell.Andeasierimports,whichwouldbealowcostwayfortheUKtofavouritstradewithdevelopingcountries,couldcomeatahighcostinUKtraderelationswiththeEU.Also,howfastwillAfricabeabletodeliveronitsCFTAvision,especiallywithNigeria,SouthAfrica,andTanzaniahesitatingtojoin?Sotradedealsmaytaketimetoworkthrough,unlesstheUKsimplyreplicatesEUtermsbyrollingovertheEPAs.Inthatcase,expectfewquickwinsforeitherside.
WorkingtogetherTheUKalreadyhasstrongbilateralrelationswithmanydevelopingcountries,aboveall,thoseintheCommonwealth.Itwillundoubtedlyseektostrengthenthese,asfarasitsresourcesallow.Butmanyofthesetiesarenotwithouthistoricalcomplexityandoccasionaltension,somethingfromwhichtheEUismercifullyfree.UKrelationswithIndia,Kenya,Nigeria,andSouthAfricahaveallhadtheirupsanddowns.
OneoftheparadoxesfordevelopingcountriesisthatBrexitmakesrelationswiththeUKbothmoreandlessimportant.MoreimportantbecauseasaseparateentitytheycannolongertreatitcollectivelywithEUpartners,leaning
One of the paradoxes for
developing countries is that Brexit
makes relations with the UK both
more and less important.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 13
‘Global Britain’ is a great slogan,
but meaningless if it implies
opposition to people coming to live
and work in the UK.
onitseparatelywhentheywish.LessimportantbecauseinfluencingtheUKwillnolongerdirectlyimpacttheEU’sposition,andtheUKwillfindithardertodefenditspartnersintheirnegotiationswiththeEU–forexample,innegotiatingthepost-Cotonouarrangements,whichwillstillmattermoretomostdevelopingcountriesthantheirbilateraleconomicrelationswiththeUK.
Itisimportanttorecognisethatmoneyalonedoesnotbuyinfluence.FortheUK,beingadevelopmentsuperpowerdoesnotautomaticallybringpoliticalinfluence.Thatrequiresengagement.AcrossAfrica,inCommonwealthandnon-Commonwealthcountriesalike,Britainwillhavetostepupitsdiplomaticeffortsandministerialengagementifitistomaintainitsinfluence,asrecentvotesintheUNonDiegoGarcia,theWorldHealthOrganization,andInternationalCourtofJusticehaveshown.
Therecentscandalabouttheimmigrationtreatmentofthe‘Windrushgeneration’illustrateshoweasilyBritishinfluencecanbelostthroughimplementationoftheverypoliciesthatpoweredtheBrexitvote.‘GlobalBritain’isagreatslogan,butmeaninglessifitisaccompaniedbypoliciesthatdiscouragepeoplefromcomingtoliveandworkintheUK.
Theworlddoesn’tstandstillInthelongterm,10-20yearshence,historiansmayseethegreatestimpactofBrexitasitsunintendedconsequences.ForemostoftheseistheweakeningofthemultilateralsystemofwhichtheEUisanintegralandleadingpart.
Themultilateralsystemhingesoncountries’willingnesstocollaborateandcompromiseratherthanconfrontandriskconflict.TheEUdemonstratesthatthishasbenefitsintermsofeconomicsandsecurity.Itisthereforeanexamplethatmany,fromtheAfricanUniontotheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)havesoughttoemulate.ThefactthatsomanyUKcitizenswerenolongerwillingtomakethepoliticalcompromisesnecessarytostaywithintheEUbutpreferredtoconfrontit–onimmigrationandtheruleoflawinparticular–sendsaworryingsignalatatimewhenthe
multilateralsystemitselfisunderthreatfromthosewhobelievetheyarebigenoughtogetwhattheywantbilaterally.ThelessonofthecrisesinUkraine,Syria,andtheSouthChinaSeaisthat,forthosepowers,ifyouareaclientstateyouwillgetfullsupportwhateveryoudo;ifyouarenot,youriskconflict.
Smallanddevelopingcountrieshavebeentheprimebeneficiariesofthemultilateralsystem.Theygrumble,withsomejustice,thatitisskewedintheinterestsofthegreatpowersandtheWest,whichcreatedit.Africa,inparticularhasstruggledtosecureadequaterepresentationinglobalfora.
Butthesystemhasprovidedthemguaranteesandprotectionsagainstthekindofclientelistglobalpoliticsandprotectionist/mercantilisteconomicpoliciesthatcharacterisedtheinter-warperiodandtheColdWarandthatsomepowersnowwanttoreimpose.Thelast30yearshaveseengreatstridesinensuringdevelopmentaidisnottiedtopoliticalcomplianceordiplomaticsupportforanothercountry.Themultilateralagenciesguaranteeaccesstomarketsandfinanceonanon-discriminatorybasis,whichisessentialifAfricaandothersaretoacceleratedevelopment.Itisthereforecriticalformostdevelopingcountriestopreserveandstrengthenthissystem,notletitdecay.
InsofarasBrexitweakenstheEUandweakensthemultilateralsystem,Britainanddevelopingcountrieswillneedtoworktogetherandharder,withtheEU,tosustaintheintegrityandincreasetheeffectivenessofthesystemforthebenefitofall.
AbouttheauthorNicholasWestcottisdirectoroftheRoyalAfricanSocietyandformerlymanagingdirectorattheEuropeanExternalActionService(EEAS).Twitter:@NickWestcottRAS
14 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
While it is important to understand how the EU and the UK move forward in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, it is equally important for African stakeholders to understand whether the uncertainty created poses an opportunity or a threat to their interests.
Beach in South-Africa. Photo: Pixabay
Africa’s relations with the UK: Negotiating a post-Brexit landscape
ByPhilaniMthembu
FromeuphoriatouncertaintyIftherewasalevelofeuphoriafortheBrexitcampaignersfollowingthereferendumtoexittheEU,itdidnottakelongfortherealityoftheBritishpeople’sdecisionanditsconsequencestosinkin.Thereferendum’soutcomeusheredinanuncertainperiodfortheUKanditspartners.WiththeEUpushingahardbargain,andtheBritishbureaucracyseeminglystretchedtonegotiatewiththeEUandkeypartners,itbecameclearthattheroadaheadwouldnotbeaneasyone.InasmuchasUKpoliticianshavetalkedupBritishprospectsaftertheexitfromtheEU,therealityisthattheUKisnotnegotiatingfromapositionofstrengthathomeandabroad,butfromapositionofweakness,asthegeopoliticallandscapecontinuestochange.
InternalconflictswithintheUKremainanobstacleforthekeyplayersinBritishpolitics.MembersofTheresaMay’sConservativePartyandJeremyCorbyn’sLabourPartycontinuetodisagreeontheverycontoursoftheBrexitnegotiationsandpost-Brexitorder(see,e.g.,Bienkov,2018).AsillustratedintheslidebyMichelBarnier
(reproducedinthisvolume),thedisagreementshaverevolvedaroundwhethertheUKshouldadoptthe‘Norwaymodel’andbepartoftheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA),whetheritshouldseektobecomepartofacustomspartnership,thedateforfinalisingnegotiations,andwhethertheyshouldevenleavetheEUinthefirstplace,amongotherthings(ontheEEA,seeBBC,2018).
Lookingfromtheoutside:AviewfromAfricaFromtheAfricanstandpoint,thiscreatesperceptionsofacountryunsureofitselfanditsfuturedirection.Indeed,thepicturefromAfricaisofacountrystrugglingtofaceuptotheconsequencesoftheBrexitreferendum.CountlessparliamentarysessionsandanalysesfromthebusinesscommunityandthinktankshaveasyetbeenunabletocapturetheramificationsofBrexitforAfrica’songoingrelationswiththeUKandtheEU.SouthAfricaisoneoftheUK’slargesttradingpartnersinAfrica,withbilateraltradereachingalmost£10billion(R173billion)in2017.TherehasthereforebeenmuchinterestwithinSouthAfricaintheunfoldingdevelopments.Atthetimeofwriting,thesecondphaseoftheBrexitnegotiations
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 15
Africa’s relations with the UK: Negotiating a post-Brexit landscape
isongoing.ThissecondphaseofthenegotiationsdealswiththefutureofEU-UKrelations,whichinevitablywillimpactthepositionofboththeEUandtheUKintheworld.WhileitisimportanttounderstandhowtheEUandtheUKmoveforward,itisequallyimportantforAfricanstakeholderstodiscernwhethertheuncertaintycreatedposesanopportunityorathreat.
CantheUKdeliveronitsassurances?TheUKhassoughttoassureAfricanpartnersthatBrexitoffersmoreopportunities,particularlyforexpandingexistingtradeanddevelopmentpartnerships.However,whetherthispromisematerialisesremainstobeseen,astheUKcontinuestobepreoccupiedwithitsmostimportanttask:accomplishingitsexitfromtheEU.Thiswillcontinuetoconsumemuchofitsenergy,forcingtheBritishbureaucracytoprioritiseitstradeanddevelopmentpartners.Theleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)havereceivedassurancesofcontinueddutyfreeaccesstotheBritishmarket,andthereishopethattheUKwilladoptlooserrulesoforiginthanthoseoftheEU.
MarkPrice,UKMinisterofStateforTrade,statedduringa2017visitinsouthernAfricathattheUK’swithdrawalfromtheEUwouldnotmeanawithdrawalfromtheworld,butanincreasedopennessandopportunitiesforpartnercountries(seePrice,2017).HealsoreiteratedtheUK’scommitmentnottodisruptthetraderelationshipundertheEU-SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC)EconomicPartnershipAgreement(EPA)astheUKleavestheEU.HemetwithtradeministersandrepresentativesfromBotswana,Lesotho,Mozambique,Namibia,SouthAfrica,andSwaziland.Othermeetingshavealsobeentakingplacewithkeytradeanddevelopmentpartnersacrossthecontinent.
Followingthereferendum,TanzaniachosetonotratifytheregionalEPA,seekinginsteadtowaitthingsoutandpossiblygetabetterdealwiththeUK(Gopaldas,2018a).However,thepriorityoftheUKwillcontinuetobetheEU,wherethereareatleast759treatiestoberenegotiated,aneffortthatwillconsumemuchoftheeffortsoftheUKbureaucracy(Gopaldas,2018b).ThiswillchallengetheBritishbureaucracy’scapabilitytodeliveronitsmultipleassurancestotradepartners.
AnopportunityforAfrica’sleadingeconomies?WritingintheleaduptotheCommonwealthSummitofHeadsofState,MabuthoShangase(April2018)arguesthatAfricaiscurrentlybetterpoisedthaneverbeforetostrikefavourabledealswiththeUK.HealsoarguesthatBritainneedsAfricaandtheCommonwealthnations,astheyareasignificantmarketwithanestimatedpopulationof2.4billionpeople.HepositsthattheCommonwealthnationsstandtobenefitmorefromtheirtraderelationswiththesuperiorEUmarketthanwiththestand-aloneBritishmarket.Indeedin2016,theEUprovidedAfricawith€21billionindevelopmentcooperationand €32billioninprivateinvestment,andmuchofAfrica’span-AfricaninstitutionscontinuetobefundedbytheEU(Maré,2018).Giventhisreality,Africa’s
leadingeconomieswillseektoextractgreaterbenefitsfromaweakerUKeagertoshowitspartnersthatitisopenforbusiness.
WhenonecouplesthiswiththemanyAfricansuitorsthatalreadyexist,itbecomesclearthattheUKwillbeplayingcatch-up.WhilerelationsremainstrongwithAfricancountries,manyofwhichwereoncecolonies,itremainstobeseenhowtheUKonitsowncancompetewithdiverseactorssuchasChina,India,theEU,Turkey,theUnitedStates,SouthKorea,andJapan.AlloftheseactorshavetheirownregularsummitswiththeirAfricancounterpartstodiscusstrade,development,andsecuritymattersaffectingthecontinentanditspartnersandhavegrowntheirfootprintonthecontinentinrecentyears.TheUKisthusengagingwithAfricaatatimewhenmanymoreoptionsareavailabletothecontinent.ThisshouldbodewellforsomeofAfrica’sleadingeconomies,whichoftenhaveagreaterabilitytonegotiatetradedealsintheirfavour.Indeed,theEUwillbeouttoprovethatitisstillthemostlucrativemarket,whiletheUKwillbeouttomakeacaseforitselfinthepost-Brexitorder.
References• BBCNews(2018,9May),‘Brexit:PeerscallforUKto
remaininEuropeanEconomicArea’.www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44038476
• Bienkov,Adam(n.d.),‘TheresaMay'scabinetinchaosasBorisJohnsoncallsherBrexitplans“crazy”’.BusinessInsiderSouthAfrica.www.businessinsider.co.za/theresa-may-cabinet-in-chaos-as-boris-johnson-calls-her-brexit-customs-union-plans-crazy-2018-5
• Gopaldas,Ronak(13April,2018a),‘CanAfricabethebigBrexitwinner?’ISSToday.www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-04-13-iss-today-can-africa-be-the-big-brexit-winner/#.Wv57kYjRAdV
• Gopaldas,Ronak(2018b,13April),‘Startingatnextweek’sCommonwealthsummit,smartmovesfrombothsidescouldbenefittheUKandAfrica’.ISSToday.www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-04-13-iss-today-can-africa-be-the-big-brexit-winner/#.Wv58ukjRAdW
• Maré,John(2018,5March),‘Uncertaintiesofapost-BrexitworldbringopportunitiesforSAandAfrica’.BusinessDay.www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2018-03-05-uncertainties-of-a-post-brexit-world-bring-opportunities-for-sa-and-africa/
AbouttheauthorPhilaniMthembuisexecutivedirectorattheInstituteforGlobalDialogue(IGD),anindependentSouthAfrica-basedforeignpolicythinktankdedicatedtotheanalysisof,anddialogueon,theevolvinginternationalpoliticalandeconomicenvironmentandtheroleofAfricaandSouthAfrica.IGDisassociatedwiththeUniversityofSouthAfrica.Twitter:@M_Philani
16 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
CHOICE MATRIX: FUTURE EU-UK COLLABORATION ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
POLICY ALIGNMENT METHOD
Lowalignment
EU/UK policies can be more or less aligned at any given geographic level/in any given area
Methods of collaboration can be more or less structured at any given geographic level/in any given area
Ad hocHighalignment
Structured
A.GLOBAL
E.g. UN/OECD
1.Forms of decision-making/Fora
2.Programmes and policy initiatives
TheUKwillshiftitsattentiontobolsteritsengagementinglobaldecision-makingfora.
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
UK&EUcontinuetosharepolicies:SDGs,ParisClimateChangeAgenda,ConsensusforDevelopment.
B.CAPITAL TO CAPITAL
E.g. Londonto Paris/London to Brussels
TheUKwillpartiallyshiftitsattentiontobilateralcooperationschemesincludingwithEUcountries.Proliferationofbilateralsummits,e.g.theFR-UKsummitinJanuary2018.
EU-UKSpecialFrameworkforcollaboration.
TheUKwillshiftitsattentiontobilateralpolicyinitiatives,alsoattheoperationallevel.
C.REGIONS
E.g. Africa/Horn of Africa
UKparticipationinsigningontopolicyframeworksasanassociatemember(e.g.EU-Africaorpost-Cotonou?).
TheUKasanobservertoEUcoordinationmeetings;e.g.EUcoordinationbeforetheAfricanUnionPartners’Group(AUPG).
Jointprogrammes&policyinitiativesinrelationto(other)regions.
D.IN-COUNTRY LEVEL
E.g. Tanzania/ Cambodia
CollaborationbetweenUKandEUHeadsofMission(HoM)/HeadsofCooperation(HoC).
Jointprogrammes&policyinitiativesinspecificcountries,e.g.collaborationbetweenHoM/HoC.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 17
A.GLOBAL
Choice matrix continues...
3. Personnel and skills
4.Money flows
Thematic collaborationThematic issues e.g. migration, humanitarian aid, defence, peace and stability could appear at every level within the matrix.
Thematic collaboration can occur at any given geographic level/in any given area.
June 2018
TIMELINE
UK a member state
UK third state/transition period (principle of sincere cooperation applies) New partnership unless cliff-edge Brexit
Policy alignment, method or thematic collaboration can differ according to timing.
29 March 2019 31 Dec 2020
Consultationorexchangebetweendevelopmentandhumanitarianpolicyexperts.
JointsupportforUN/WorldBank/Globalinitiatives/programmes.
B.CAPITAL TO CAPITAL
ConsultationorexchangebetweenHQdevelopmentandhumanitarianpolicyexperts.
JointfinancingthroughoffEUbudgetfunds,oronbudgetop-inmechanism.
C.REGIONS
Consultationorexchangedevelopmentandhumanitarianpolicyexperts.
Jointfinancingforspecificregionalintiatives(includingEUtrustfunds).
D.IN-COUNTRY LEVEL
Consultationorexchangebetweenin-countrydevelopmentandhumanitarianpolicyexperts.
GraphicD
esign:YaseenaChiu-van’tHoff
Concept:AndrewSherriffandEm
manuelD
eGroof
Incountryjointflagshipprogrammes.
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
18 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
IronoreloadedtrainsattheSaldanhaterminal,SouthAfrica.Photo:Jbdodane/Flickr
FROM AFRICA TO COUNTRY MINING VISIONS
There are real benefits to continued EU-UK cooperation on development policy after Brexit, but the window of opportunity to close a deal is tight and closing fast. With the clock ticking towards the Brexit date of 29 March 2019, many questions remain about how Brexit may affect EU development policy.
ByLindaMcAvan
Time to close a deal is running out
Brexitposesrisksforbothsides.TheUKrisksalossofinfluenceandreducedreachofitssoftpower,whiletheEUstandstolosenotonlyoneofitslargestdonors,butalsoastrongvoiceintheCouncilofMinistersandgloballyfordevelopmentpolicy.Thisishappeningagainstashiftingpolicybackground,astheEUinstitutionsbeginnegotiationsonthenextEUbudget–themultiannualfinancialframework(MFF)for2021onwards.Alotisthereforeatstakeinthenext12months.
UKwillmeetspendingcommitments,butdetailsareshortonnewrelationshipTheBrexitnegotiationsarebeingconductedintwophases:thedivorcesettlement(budget,citizens’rights,NorthernIreland),ontheonehand,andthetransitionalarrangementsaswellasthefuturerelationship,ontheother.Intermsofphase1,sufficientprogresswasmade.ForthecurrentMFF,theUKiscontributingaround€7.1billiontotheEU’sdevelopmentbudget,coveringthe
DevelopmentCooperationInstrument(DCI),theEuropeanDevelopmentFund(EDF),andtheHumanitarianAidInstrument(HAI).Underthetermsofthetransitiondealannouncedon19March,theUKagreedtohonouritscommitmentstotheEUbudgetandtheEDF.Thisisimportant,becauseitmeansnobudgetholeandnodifficultdiscussionstoplugthegap.Intermsofphase2,thefuturerelationship,wehavefewdetails:atthetimeofwriting,theremainingissuesunderthedraft
Big Ben clock, London. Photo: Pixabay
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 19
withdrawalagreementandthefuturerelationarebeingdiscussed.SpeakinginFebruaryinMunich,UKPrimeMinisterTheresaMaysaid,‘ifaUKcontributiontoEUdevelopmentprogrammesandinstrumentscanbestdeliverourmutualinterests,weshouldbeopentothat’.
Inmanyways,2018isaperfectwindowtodefineanewEU-UKrelationshipondevelopmentpolicybecausetheEUitselfistakingafreshlookatitswholefundingframeworkandprogrammes.Indeed,thecurrentMFFexpireson31December2020–thesamedayastheUKtransitionaldealends.TheEuropeanCommission’sproposalsforthenextMFFfundinground(2021-2027),andthenewspendingprogrammestoreplacetheDCIandtheEDFfrom2021onwards,willdominatetheEUinstitutionalagendainthislastyearofthecurrentEuropeanParliamentandCommission.Atthesametime,negotiationsareunderwayonareplacementfortheCotonouAgreementwiththeAfrica,CaribbeanandPacific(ACP)countries,whichexpiresin2020.
ClarityneededontheUK’spositionTheUKgovernmentcouldusethetimeithasleftasafullplayerattheEUnegotiatingtabletoinfluencethesediscussions.TherehavebeennoformalproposalsfromtheUKsofar,onlytwonon-paperssharedwiththeEU27andsuggestionsthattheUKcouldcontributetospecificEUdevelopmentinstrumentspost-Brexit.Thesecouldbeadhoctrustfunds,theAfricaPeaceFacility(oritsreplacement),anewEDFseparatefromtheEUbudget,orinvestmentfundslikethenewEuropeanFundforSustainableDevelopment(EFSD).However,thereareobstaclestorealisingthismodel.Inexchangeforfinancialsupport,theUKwilldoubtlesswantsomesayinhowfundsarespent.TheEU27arecautiousaboutanythingthatsmacksofcherrypicking,sotheymaybereticentaboutanyspecialrolefortheUK,whichbythenwillbeathird
country.Instrumentsthatareopentothird-countrycontributions,likethetrustfunds,arestronglycontestedbytheEuropeanParliament,whichmaywantthemscrappedunderthenextMFF,overwhichithasvetopower.OntheEDF,theCommission’spreferredoptionis‘budgetisation’,alongstandingdemandoftheEuropeanParliament,thoughcontestedbysomegovernments.EveniftheEDFremainsaseparatepotofbilateralmoneyoutsidethebudget,itsruleswouldhavetochangetoallowthirdcountriestocontribute.AparallelarrangementwouldalsoneedtobefoundtoallowtheUKtoremainpartytotheCotonouagreementsuccessor–morespecialrulesthatsomemaybaulkat.
TheotherproblemistheUK’slackofclarityaboutwhatitispreparedtoputonthetable.Itsapproachseemstobetowaitandseethenewpost-2020EUdevelopmentarchitectureandpotentiallyoptinatalaterstage.TheEU27areunlikelytoshapetheirnewinstrumentstoaccommodatetheUKbykeepingtheEDFoff-budget,allowingthird-countrycontributionsandvotingrights,orcreatingnewoff-budgetinstruments,unlesstheyhavemorethanwarmwordsthattheUKmightparticipate.
TheEUwouldbenefitfromcontinuedcooperationTheEU27doeshaveaninterestinkeepingtheUKonboardpost-2020.TheUKiswellrespectedininternationaldevelopment,andthereisalotofgoodwillamongparliamentarians,ministers,andambassadorsfromtheEU27tostaycloseafterBrexit.TheUKwasamajordriveroftheEUpledgetoachievetheUN0.7%aidtargetby2015,andwhiletheEUcollectivelyhasfailedtomeetit,theUKisoneofonlyfiveEUcountriestodeliver–andtheonlyonetohaveenshrineditinlaw.TheEUiscurrentlytheworld’slargestdonorofbilateralaid,butitsnumbersincludebilateralaidfromitsmemberstatesalongsidetheEU’sowncontributions.LosingtheUKwillputaholeinthesestatisticsunlessothermemberstatesstepup.
TheUK’sDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)hasbeenoneofthestrongestsupportersoftheCommissionDevelopment(DEVCO)andHumanitarianAid(ECHO)directorates’policyagendas.Ithaspushedthegenderdimensionofdevelopment(seeGillAllwood’scontributioninthisissue),untyingaid(thoughrecentUKpolicyisreversingthis),improvingaideffectiveness,andmaintainingastrongfocusonpovertyreductionandfragilestates.Thatsupportbecamemoreimportantinthe“leanyears”afterthe2008crash.
UKinfluencegoesbeyondgovernment.TheCommissionhasdrawnheavilyontheexpertiseofUKthinktanksandNGOsonpolicydevelopmentandaiddelivery.Post-Brexit,UK-baseddevelopmentorganisationswillnolongerbeeligibleforEUfundsorformallyconsultedonEUpolicy.Theremaybewaysaroundthis.SomemayestablishabaseinBrusselsorinanothermemberstate,whileothersmaystruggletopersuadetheirUKconstituencyoftheneedtolobbyBrusselsandnetworkwithpartners.
In many ways, 2018 is a perfect window to define a new EU-UK relationship on development policy because the EU itself is taking a fresh look at its whole funding framework and programmes.
Time to close a deal is running out
20 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
TheUKhasmosttoloseButtheUKarguablyhasmosttolosefromfailuretodeliveronthedeepandspecialpartnershipTheresaMayoftentalksabout.Intherunuptothereferendum,aUKgovernmentstudystated,‘[T]heEU’sgeographicalfocusforitsaidisbroadlyalignedwiththatoftheUK...andtheEU’swidergeographicalcoveragemeansthattheUKcanchannelaidthroughittoreachcountriestheUKcouldnotreachalone.’Thatreachiskeyinfragilestates,wheretheUKiscommittedtospendinghalfofitsaidandwheretheEUhasabroaderrangeofinstrumentsandoffersamoreintegratedapproachtotacklingproblems.JointprogrammingandpracticalcooperationonthegroundthroughEUdelegationsandenhanceUKsoftpowercouldbelost.ItisworthrememberingthatgiventhelawrequiringtheUKtospend0.7%ofitsgrossnationalincomeonaid,thereisno“savings”totheUKtreasuryfromnotworkingthroughtheEU.DFIDhasratedtheEUmoreefficientthanmanyothermultilaterals,includingUNagencies.Ifaidmustbespentsomewhere,whynotthroughatriedandtrustedpartner?
Trade:ExistingagreementsmaynotsimplyberolledoverTherehasbeenalackofdebateabouttheeffectofBrexitonourdevelopmentpartners.Oneemergingissueistrade.DevelopingcountriesarekeentoknowwhethertheywillbeabletotradewiththeUKonthesametermsafterBrexit.Currentlyleastdevelopedcountriesenjoytariff-freeaccesstotheUKmarketthroughtheEverythingButArms(EBA)agreement.OtherdevelopingcountriesenjoyahighlevelofaccesstotheEUandUKmarketsfromvarioustradeagreementsandsupportmechanismslikeAidforTrade.
TheUKgovernmentsaysitwantstocontinuetariff-freeaccessandwilltrytorollovertradeagreements,butthisisnomeanfeat.AUKtradebilliscurrentlystrandedinWestminsterbecauseofdomesticproblems,anditisuncertainifallcountrieswillbewillingtorolloverthetradetermstheyenjoywiththeEUtotheUKalone.
WindowofopportunityclosingfastInlessthanayear,UKministerswillnolongerbeattheCounciltable.DFIDofficialswillnolongerbemembersofEUworkinggroups,andBritishEuropeanParliamentarianswillbegone.Influencewillinevitablydiminish.Atthesametime,thereisariskthatthedifficultMFFandBrexitnegotiationswilleclipsethepositiveroletheUKcouldplayasapartnerinEUdevelopmentpolicy.Thewindowofopportunitytoresolvetheseissuesistightandclosingfast.Weneedprogress.
AbouttheauthorLindaMcAvanisamemberoftheEuropeanParliamentandchairoftheEuropeanParliamentCommitteeonDevelopment.Shewritesinapersonalcapacity.Twitter:@LindaMcAvanMEP
... the UK arguably
has most to lose from
failure to deliver on
the 'deep and special
partnership'.
DFID has rated the EU
more efficient than
many other multilaterals,
including UN agencies.
If aid must be spent
somewhere, why not
through a tried and
trusted partner?
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 21
Photo:ChristianWeidinger/Flickr
To the point: UK-EU coordination for the poor If they coordinate, the EU and UK could do more to benefit poor people in developing countries after the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, even if they opt to operate their development programmes and policies separately. However, given path-dependencies and current pressures, the best post-Brexit outcome would arise from a form of collaboration where domestic objectives are moderated by acting multilaterally.
ByTamsynBarton
TheEuropeanUnionisunique.Ithasgonefartherthananyotherinternationalinstitutioninpoolingdecision-makingpolicyandresources.Itrepresentstheaspirationtomatchstructuretotheincreasinglyglobalnatureofthechallengesfacingitsmembersandthewiderworld.ThepreamblestoitsTreatiessetouttheambitiousaimtobeaglobalforceforgood,inrecentyearswithafocusonpovertyreductionandsustainabledevelopment.EUinfluencewillbemultipliedwiththeUKaligned–whetherinside
oroutsidethetent–oncommondevelopmentcooperationobjectives.TheEUhasyet,however,torealiseitsfullpotentialineffectingpositivechangeindevelopingcountries,arguablybecausememberstatedomesticobjectivestendtocompromisetheseaims.ThishasmeantthatwhileEUexternalpolicieshaveledtosomepositivehumanitariananddevelopmentoutcomes,theyhavealsooftenbeenpursuedinthecontextofunfairtermsofengagementthathavedisadvantageddevelopingcountries.
Malnutrition reduction project with UK Aid and other partners. Photo:DFID/Sylvain Cherkaoui
22 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
Trade arguably offers the biggest
potential for reducing poverty, and
it is hard to see how there can be
meaningful cooperation in trade
policy post Brexit.
AfterBrexit,theUKisexpectedtobefreetodevelopitsowntradepolicy,andtohavelessincentivetocooperatewiththeEUinexternalaffairs.Yet,theUKhasdeclaredthewishtohaveadeepandspecialrelationshipwiththeEU.On24May,theUKissuedanon-paperreiteratingitsdesirefor‘strategicco-operation’basedonthebeliefthat‘ourcollectiveimpactinaddressingspecificdevelopmentchallengesisgreatestwhenweworktogether’.Ifclosecollaborationdoesn’thappen,Iargue,itwillcreateanegativeimpactonpoorpeopleindevelopingcountries,inparticularthepoorercountries,andthoseaffectedbyconflictsandnaturaldisasters.
Let’slookatthisatthemultilaterallevelFirst,let’sconsidertheUK’scontributiontoEUprioritiesinexternalactionatthemultilaterallevel,wheretheEUincludingtheUKhasbeenoneofthekeyinternationalactors,whetherinthecontextoftheWorldTradeOrganization,climatechangenegotiations,theUN,orothergroupings.
Tradearguablyoffersthebiggestpotentialforreducingpoverty,anditishardtoseehowtherecanbemeaningfulcooperationintradepolicypostBrexit.Therefore,theUK’sliberalstance,whichhaslimitedagriculturalprotectionismharmfultodevelopingcountries,willnolongerimpactEUtradepolicy.Theimmediateriskhereisdisruptionofestablishedtradepatterns,inparticular,forpoorercountrieswithfeweroptions.UKcivilsocietyorganisations(CSOs),whichwerethefirstCSOstofocusontrade’spotentialforpovertyreduction,willalsofindithardertogaintractiononEUtradepolicy.
Indeeditispossible,thoughtherearefewsignsofitsofar,thatUKtradepolicycouldfavourdevelopingcountriesmorethantheEUdoes,forinstance,copyingtheAfricanGrowthandOpportunityAct.ButUKtradepolicyisboundtobelessimportantthanEUtradepolicy.Inanycase,iftradeistoreducepovertyitwillmatterwhetherthelinkagesbetweenaidfortrade
andadjustmenttoliberalisationcontinue;andtheUKhasbeenakeyplayerinattemptingtoeaseadjustmentwithaidfortrade(seeKennes,2018).TheimpactsoftheUKwithdrawalonEUmigrationpolicyarelessclear.Brexitmayjustaccelerateexistingtrendsonthis,asinotherareas(Bond,2017).Lesscoordinationontaxationislikelytoreduceopportunitiesforincreasingrevenuesfromforeigninvestmentindevelopingcountries.
Therewouldbedefinitedownsidestoreducedcooperationonenvironmentandclimatechange–eveniffearsofdiminishingUKenvironmentalstandardsproveunfounded.Ill-coordinatedinitiativeswouldbelesslikelytoachievethesamesystemicimpact,anddevelopingcountriesstillfacedisproportionateimpactsofclimatechangeandwastemismanagement,forexample.IfaUKgovernmentcameinthatwasinclinedtoendco-operationunderinternationalagreements,suchasonemissionsreductionsorfoodaid,itwouldcertainlyhitpoorpeopleindevelopingcountries.
Whataboutaid?Inrelationtooverallamountsofaid,theEUisthelargestdonor,includingallmemberstatecontributionsandtheEuropeanCommission.TheUKisoneofonlyfivememberstatestohavemettheUNaidspendingtargetof0.7%ofgrossnationalincome.BrexitisboundtoreducetheEuropeanCommission’scredibilityinpressingitsmemberstatestoraisetheirODAcommitmentstothe0.7%notch,whichitselfwillhaveglobalimpactsgivenEuropeanleadershiponthis.
AsforthequantityofEuropeanCommissionaidspecifically,despitetheambitiousproposalsonthetableforthenextEUbudget,Brexitseemslikelytoreducetheamountfor‘externalaction’oftheEUbudget(theEDFsuccessormaybeaseparaterisk).Howmuchitwilldropdependsontheinterestincontinuingcollaborationandhowtheportionofthe‘Brexitbill’classifiedasofficialdevelopmentassistanceisusedinthenegotiations.
Thelikelihoodisthatany‘repatriated’fundswouldnotbespentaseffectivelybytheUK.Theywouldbelesslikelytobespentinjointprogrammingandincomplementaritywithothers,andmightbespentbydepartmentsotherthantheDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID).Theseotherministrieshavealessgoodrecordincontributionstopovertyreductiononaverage,accordingtoreviewsdonesofarbytheUK’sownIndependentCommissiononAidImpact(icai.independent.gov.uk).
ThequalityofEUaid,asjudgedbyaideffectivenessprinciples,mightalsochange.WiththeUKoutoftheEUthefocusonthepoorestcountriesratherthanricherneighboursmightbereduced.TheUKwasalsooneofthefewmemberstatesfocusedonusing
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 23
EuropeanInvestmentBank(EIB)resourcesforpovertyreductionanddevelopmentoutsidetheEU,asopposedtofordomesticpriorities.ItwouldbeashametoseeCSOvoicesreducedastheEIBscalesupitsinvestmentindevelopingandemergingeconomies.Moreover,theUKanditsexpertssecondedtotheCommissionhavemadeimportantcontributionsinvariousareasofpolicy,suchasaideffectiveness,gender,andspecificissueslikecashtransfersinemergencies.
TheUKalsolosesimpactinreducingpovertyandvulnerabilityifitnolongercoordinateswiththeEU,whichoperatesin120countries,farmorethantheUKcanreachbilaterally.TheEUhasabroaderrangeofleverstocoordinatewithUKinputinregionswherethereisfragilitylikeWestAfricaandtheSahel.TheEUcanalsododifferentthingsinareaswhereEuropeisperceivedasmoreneutralthantheUK(Castillejoetal.,2018).
Thenegativeimpactsoffailuretocoordinateareprobablymostevidentinhumanitarianemergencies.TheEbolacrisisillustratedthepowerofcoordinationbetweentheEUandUK,aswellaswithotheractorsliketheUnitedStatesandwiththeUN,wheretheUKismoreengagedthanotherEUmemberstates.Theescalationindisplacementofpeopleinthedecadessince1970requiresajoined-upresponsetoensureprotectionofvulnerablepeople.TheUKhasencouragedreluctantmemberstatestoupholdhumanitarianprinciples,aswellasbeingamajorfunder.TheUKandEUneedtocontinuetocooperateinupholdingtheGrandBargain,whichaimstoincreaseefficiencytogetmorehelptomorepeoplemorequickly.
HowabouttheroleoftheUK-basedinternationalNGOs?InternationalNGOsarekeytodeliveryofEUaidtothepoorest,topeace-building,aswellastoadvocacyinfavourofthepoorest.UK-basedinternationalNGOsrepresentalonghistoryofknowledgeandexpertise,whilehavingstronggrassrootssupportintheUK(anestimated5millionpeopleare‘engagedsupporters’).Yet,UK-basedNGOsarealreadynolongereligible,accordingtoECHO,toapplytoimplementhumanitarianprogrammes,wheretheytraditionallyplayedaleadingrole(delivering25%oftheprogrammein2016,HaynesandDeToma,2017).Evenwheretheyareeligibleindevelopmentprogrammes,financialliabilitiesarecreatedbythe‘Brexitclauses’incontracts.Thisrepresents,firstly,adisruptionofservicetopoorpeopleindevelopingcountries,inparticularinemergencies.Inthemediumterm,itwillatleastproducealossofexpertiseandforfeitureofastrongsectorvoice.
WhileBondanditssisternetworkslikeConcordandVOICEarealreadytakingstepstomaintainlinksandworktogether,ratherthanabandoningeffortstoinfluencethelargestdonor,there
isnodoubtthatitwillbehardertomaintaintheengagementunlessthereisaclearUKinvolvementthatlegitimatestheCSOvoice(Godfrey,2018).
ConcludingremarksParallelandcomplementaryUKandEUprogrammesmighthelpreducepovertyandachievetheSDGs.However,giventhehistoryandcurrentpoliticalandeconomicpressures,thebestresultsarelikelytobeachievedbycollaboration,wheredomesticobjectivesaremoderatedbyactingmultilaterally.CivilsocietynetworkslikeBond,Concord,andVOICEwillkeepuptheirownjointworktopressforcoordination,whichhelpsthepoorestthemost.
References• Bond(2017),TheimpactofBrexitonUKandEUdevelopment
policy.London:Bond.www.bond.org.uk/sites/default/files/resource-documents/the_impact_of_brexit_on_uk_and_eu_international_development_policy_0.pdf
• Castillejo,Clare,MikaelaGavas,MariellaDiCiommo,MeritxellSayósMonràs,andNielsKeijzer(2018),TheEuropeanUnion’snextfinancialframework:ProspectsandchallengesforEUdevelopmentco-operation,EuropeanThinktanksGroup.https://ettg.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ETTG-policy-brief-the-EUs-MFF_prospects_and_challenges_for_Development_cooperation.pdf
• Godfrey,Claire(2018,9January),‘Brexitisn’tanendtoUK-Europeancivilsocietycollaboration’.London:Bond.www.bond.org.uk/news/2018/01/brexit-isnt-an-end-to-uk-european-civil-society-collaboration
• Haynes,RachelandCostanzadeToma(2017),TheimpactofBrexitonEUfundingforCSOs.London:Bond.www.bond.org.uk/resources/the-impact-of-brexit-on-eu-funding-for-csos
• Kennes,Walter(2018),HowBrexitmayaffectACP-EUrelations:Anhistoricalperspective.DiscussionPaper220.Maastricht:ECDPM.http://ecdpm.org/dp220
AbouttheauthorTamsynBartonwrotethiscontributioninherformercapacityaschiefexecutiveatBond,theUKnetworkfororganisationsworkingininternationaldevelopment.Twitter:@TBartonUK
24 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
Brexit will certainly impact EU development cooperation and humanitarian assistance policies. A main question is whether these two parties will continue to collaborate in development cooperation post-Brexit. The UK is a ‘development superpower’ in its own right, as well as the third contributor (after Germany and France) to the EU’s aid budget. As for the EU, it channels more than half of the world’s ODA annually, something that constitutes a key political asset of the Union in its external relations.
ByIlianaOliviéandAitorPérez
WhatdoesBrexitmeanintermsofaid?TworelatedbutdistinctpoliticaleventsmakeitdifficulttoforeseetheeffectsofBrexitonaid.OneistheconservativeslantevidentinBritishdomesticpolitics.TheotherisBrexititself.InOliviéandPérez(2017)weproposedthreepotentialpost-2020scenarios,dependingonhowtheUK’saidbudgetanditsgeographicalallocationsevolve(Table1).
FollowingTheresaMay’snarrativeon‘atrulyGlobalBritain’,theUKseemsunlikelytocutaidspending.Moreover,giventheneedtostrengthenextra-Europeanlinks,theBritishmayopttoincreaseinternationalassistance,tonurturepoliticallinkswiththeCommonwealthandtheinternationalcommunity.AidcutswouldtakeplaceonlyifBrexitplungestheislandintoanationalistretrenchment.
Eitherintheframeworkofanationalistretrenchment,orinascenariowherethecountryseeksnewlinkages,aidpreviouslychannelledviaEUinstitutionswillbemouldedaccordingtocurrentBritishbilateralaidpatterns.Economicinfrastructurewillprobablybemoretargetedthan,forinstance,socialsectorslikehealthandeducation.However,itcouldbeinBritain’sbestinteresttomaintainabridgewiththeEUindevelopmentcooperationaffairs.Inthatcase,partofUKaidcouldbechannelledasintheothertwodepictedscenarios,whiletherestwouldretaintheEUaidpattern.
Worldaidwouldonlydecrease,afterBrexit,intheeventofanationalistretrenchmentintheUK.Andsuchdecreasewouldbelimitedto3%oftotalaidonaverage,thoughimpactswouldobviouslynotbeevenlydistributedamongaidrecipients(see
The impact of Brexit on aid: Divorce or marriage of convenience?
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 25
Demonstration:StillstrugglingforalegalrighttostayfortheLampedusaRefugeesPhoto:RasandeTyskar/Flickr
OliviéandPérez,2017).BrexitwillhaveamajorimpactontheEUasaglobaldonor.TheUnionwouldlose21-22%ofcurrentaiddisbursements,meaningthatitsshareofworldaidcouldfallfrom58%(accordingto2015figures)to48%or47%.TheEUwouldmaintainitstoppositionandtheEUinstitutionswouldstillberankedfourthinaidvolume(Table2).
AlthoughBrexitnegotiationsstillhavealongwaytogoandpoliticaleventscouldunfoldinunexpectedways,almosttwoyearshavepassedsinceMayandherBrexiteeradministrationtookpower.Despiteastrongcampaignagainstaid,whichappearstobeacontinuationoftheBrexitcampaignpriortothereferendum,UKpoliticianshavegivennosignofabolishingthering-fenced0.7%commitment.PreliminarydatarecentlyreleasedbytheOECDshowthattheUKhasevenincreaseditsaidby2.1%.Thenationalistretrenchmentscenarioisthusprovinglesslikely(OECD,2018).
DoestheUKwanttocollaboratewiththeEUafterBrexit?ContinuedcollaborationwiththeEUondevelopmentassistancecouldbeintheUK’sbestinterest(seealsotheeditors’choicematrixinthisvolume).First,theUKisboundbylawtospend0.7%ofitsnationalincomeonODA.Thatcommitmentrequiresadevelopedadministrativeandpoliticalinfrastructure.Reallocationofaidfundstootherpre-existingmechanismsorbuildingnewonesmightproveeasiersaidthandone.Secondly,theUKhasmaintainedamoralandpoliticalleadershippositioninthebuildingofEuropeandevelopmentpolicy.Ithasstronglyinfluencedthepolitical,geographical,andsectoralcomponentsofEUaid.Asaresult,EUinstitutions(whichalsocannotbereshapedovernight)areanidealchannelforpursuingBritishaidobjectives.Thirdly,keepingconnectedwiththeEUisawaytomaintainalinkwithareasandcountrieswheretheUKmightnothavethepossibilityorinterestinapresenceofitsown.AfourthreasonisapotentialfearthatBritishcharitiesmayloseaccesstoEUfundingafterBrexit.
Ontheothersideoftheargument,somemaysaythatBrexitmeansBrexit,andtheUKinterestistodevotetheresourcescurrentlychannelledviatheEUtostrengtheningitslinkswithpartnercountriesandmultilateralorganisations.Moreover,duetothelossofvalueoftheBritishpoundadditionalresourcesmayberequiredtomaintaincurrentaidprojects.
FromtheperspectiveoftheUKgovernment,theprosprobablyoutweighthecons.Itrecentlystated,‘TheEUwillremainoneofthelargestdevelopmentactorsintheworld,andtheUKwantstoretainaclosepartnershipwiththeEUinthefuture.’Thisviewwasexpressedinanon-papersharedwithmemberstatesatanEUForeignAffairsCouncilonDevelopmentearlierthisyear.In‘TheEUBeyond2020,FutureDevelopmentInstruments:AUKPerspective’,theUKcallsforflexibilityonthepartoftheEUwhendesigningthepost-2020developmentcooperationfinancialtoolssothatnon-memberstatescanjoinandplayaproactiverole(DeGroof,2018).
Doesthe(restofthe)EUwanttocollaboratewiththeUKafterBrexit?Ayearago,mostoftherelevantactorsinEUdevelopmentpolicywereintheprocessofabsorbingthelossoftheUnion’smostinfluentialandpowerfuldonor.Bynow,stakeholderswithintheEUhavedevelopeddifferentpositionswhenitcomestothebenefitsofcooperatingwiththeUKpost-Brexit,post-Cotonou,andpost-multiannualfinancialframework(MFF).
RegardingtheincentivesforkeepingtheUKonboard,firstly,thereistheobviousfinancialmotive.TheEUwilllosea10-11%ofshareofworldaidiftheUKleavestheUnion.RecoveringpartofthatshareisanaturalobjectivefortheEuropeanCommission,whichwillprobablypressurememberstatestorenewandstrengthentheircommitmenttodevelopment(andtoEUexternalrelationsgenerally,astherecentproposalforthenextMFFsuggests).Underthesecircumstances,smallorreluctant
Nationalistretrenchment Continuityandcommitment Settingupnewlinkages30%reductioninaidvolume Sameaidvolume SameaidvolumeRealistpattern
• DistributionchannelsfollowingBritishbilateralaid
• Geographicaldistribution
• Sectoraldistributionfocusedoneconomicinfrastructure
European-likepattern(50%ofaid)• Distributionchannelsremainthesame• Geographicaldistributionsame• Sectoraldistributionsame
Globalistpattern(50%ofaid)• DistributionchannelsfollowingBritish
multilateralaid(exceptEUinstitutions)• Geographicaldistribution• Sectoraldistribution
Realistpattern
• DistributionchannelsfollowingBritishbilateralaid
• Geographicaldistribution
• Sectoraldistributionfocusedoneconomicinfrastructure
Table1.Threescenariosforpost-BrexitBritishaid
26 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
EUdonorsmightprefertoleavethedooropentoamajordonorexternaltotheEU.Secondly,andreiteratinganargumentofECDPM’sAndrewSherriff,unlikesomeotherpolicies,developmentisnotacompetitiveaffairinthetraditionalsense;itispreferabletohavemorecountriesandstakeholdersonboard(andnotthecontrary).Itwillbeeasiertoworktowardsthedevelopmenttargetsofthe2030Agendawithbigdonorsonthesameteam.
Yet,keepingtheUKawayfromthetablemightbeawaytoachieve‘moreEurope’inthedevelopmentarena.TheUKhasexertedastronginfluenceinthedesignofEuropeandevelopmentpolicy,butithasnotalwaysbeenopentoinfluenceitself.Forinstance,theUKisknownforitsreluctancetodeepenintegratedactivities,suchasjointprogramming.Secondly,flexiblefinancinginstruments(whichwouldbethewayinfortheUKafterBrexit)meanmoreextra-budgetaryaid,whichismorecloselymonitoredbymemberstates.Budgetarytools(whichinprincipleleavetheUKoutsidethegame)wouldleavemoremarginofmanoeuvrefortheEuropeanCommission.TheCommissionmightthereforepreferbudgetaryaidtools.Thirdly,iftheredoesturnouttobesomecompetitionintheaidarenaafterall,theUKleavingtheEU(andburningitsbridges)wouldbeanopportunityforbigmemberstateswithincreasingODAbudgets,astrengthenedaidnarrative,andaparticularinterestinsub-SaharanAfrica(notablyGermanyandFrance)topositionthemselvesindifferentregionsofAfrica.
ConclusionAyearago,EUpolicymakersseemedtoleavethedooropenforUKparticipationinEUaidafterBrexit.However,theUK’sinterestinsuchparticipationremainsunclearandtiedtotheuncertainevolutionofUKdevelopmentpolicyandoverallforeignpolicy.Today,itseemslikelythattheUK’saidvolumewill
remainstable,andthegovernmentappearstowanttoretainaclosepartnershipwiththeEUinaidimplementation.SeveralEUactors,however,nowseemreluctanttocollaborateorhavemaintainedradiosilence.Theseincludebigmemberstateswithincreasingaidbudgets,theCommission,andsupportersofadeeperEUintegration.
References• DeGroof,Emmanuel(2018),‘TheUKproposesa‘win-win
opt-in’oninternationalcooperation’,ECDPMblog,5March.http://ecdpm.org/talking-points/uk-proposes-win-win-opt-in-international-cooperation/
• OECD(2018,9April),‘Developmentaidstablein2017withmoresenttopoorestcountries’.Mediacommuniqué.Paris:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.
• Olivié,IlianaandAitorPérez(2017),“PossibleimpactsofBrexitonEUdevelopmentandhumanitarianpolicies”,PE578042,EuropeanParliament.www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/578042/EXPO_STU(2017)578042_EN.pdf
AbouttheauthorsIlianaOlivié(left)isasenioranalystattheElcanoRoyalInstituteandlecturerattheDepartmentofInternationalEconomicsandDevelopmentfromMadrid’sUniversidadComplutense.Twitter:@iolivie
AitorPérezisaseniorresearchfellowattheElcanoRoyalInstituteandconsultantindevelopmentcooperation.Twitter:@aitor_ecoper
Donor Pre-Brexit Post-Brexit*Nationalistretrenchment
Continuityandcommitment
Settingupnewlinkages
UK** 16.385 30%reductioninaidvolume
Sameaidvolume Sameaidvolume
EUinstitutions 13.670
Globalaid 160.600 155.058 160.600 160.600
variation -3% 0% 0%
EUframedODA 94.787 74.153 75.197 74.153
variation -22% -21% -22%
*Ourestimatesforeachscenariobasedon2015dataandassumptions**ExcludingUKaidchannelledthroughtheEUinstitutionsSource:https://stats.oecd.org(DAC1).
Table2.TheimpactofBrexitonaid,netdisbursementsof2015ODAflowsinbillionsofcurrentUSdollarsunlessstatedotherwise
Slide presented by Michel Barnier, Chief Negotiator, to the General Affairs Council (Article 50) on 14 May and to the European Parliament Brexit Steering Group on 15 May 2018. Source: European Commission
Slide presented by Michel Barnier, European Commission Chief Negotiator, to the Heads of State and Government at the European Council (Article 50) on 15 December 2017. Source: European Commission
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 27
EUROPEAN COMMISSION SLIDES RELATED TO BREXIT CHOICES
28 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
The UK position
1. On trade, the UK has presented no clear end-goal, thoughithasindicateditwillnotremainpartofthesinglemarket(seePrimeMinister’sOffice,2017).
2. Onforeign,security,anddefencepolicy, theUKsays itwillfavour a partnership with theEUon internal and externalsecurity (Prime Minister’s Office, 2018). In a May 2018technical note dealing mainly with external security, theUKproposesdevelopmentofa‘futureframeworkofUK-EUconsultationandcooperationonexternalsecurity’.Anysuchframework,itsays,‘wouldbeflexibleandscalabletoenabletheUKandEUtocooperatemorecloselywhenitisintheirmutualinterests’(HMGovernment,2018).
A policy paper of 12 September 2017 emphasises that theUKis‘unconditionallycommittedtomaintainingEuropeansecurity’andthat‘theUKwants todevelopanewsecuritypartnership with the EU that builds on the breadth anddepthofoursharedinterestsandvalues,andonethatgoesbeyond any existing third country arrangements’. Such apartnership–includingonexternalmigration,cybersecurity,defence, and security – could be realised, for example,through mutual consultations and information exchange(DepartmentforExitingtheEU,2017).
3. Regarding development, the UK has conveyed its positioninseveralpapersapresentedhereinreversechronologicalorder:
• The ‘UK Non-Paper on Development’ of 24 May2018 makes clear that the UK wishes to cooperatestrategicallywiththeEU,butwill‘criticallyassesstherationale...dependingonthesituation,andwhether...the EU offers the best value for money’. It proposescollaborationparticularlyon(i)peaceandsecurity,(ii)humanitarian aid, and (iii) migration. This, it states,‘could form the basis of a strategic partnership ofdevelopment cooperation between the UK and theEU’.
• In a May 2018 technical note, the UK proposesconcrete forms of collaboration or consultation,especially regarding the areas mentioned in the 24Maynon-paper.Inparticular,itsuggests:
• (i)adhocmeetingswiththeEUForeignAffairs Council;
(ii)strategicdialogues;(iii)UKattendanceatinformalmeetings;(iv)coordinationincasesofcrisisoverseas;(v)UKparticipationinexternalprogrammes;(vi)contributionstoexternalprogrammes,ifitgetsaseatatthetable(HMGovernment,2018).
• A UK non-paper entitled ‘Future DevelopmentInstruments: A UK Perspective’, released 20February2018,outlinesthreeproposalsinvaryinglevels of detail: (i) The UK suggests that theEU retain options for collaboration with thirdcountries,particularlytheUK,inlightofthelatter’sexpertise and established role and reputation asaglobaldevelopmentplayer. (ii)TheUKsuggeststhat it could contribute financially to specificprogrammes or projects, through ‘externallyassigned revenues’. (iii) The UK insists on havinga seat at the table, or a say in the matter, whenit makes monetary contributions to specificprogrammesorprojects.
4. General positions, including the profiling of the UK as‘Global Britain’ that can engage with a strong EU withwhich it continues to share values, were expressed inthe Lancaster House Speech of 17 January 2017 (PrimeMinister’sOffice,2017).
The Brexit negotiations: Who thinks what Brexitisofcourseanegotiation,andwhiletherearemanystakeholdersthereareonlytwonegotiatingparties,theUKandtheEU.Tounderstandthepoliticalprocessinplay,itisusefultoseetheofficialstatementsmadebythepartiesontheirnegotiatingpositionsand interests. Here we briefly summarise these, using phrasing taken directly from official documents related to international anddevelopmentcooperation,trade,andexternalaffairs.WhiletheUKhasbroadlyassertedtheideaofanenhancedbespokepartnershipwiththeEUoncertainissues,theEU’spositionhascentredontreatingtheUKasa‘thirdcountry’.Waystobridgethisgapwillneedtofound,bothoverallandinspecificpolicydomains.Concludinganeffective,win-windealintheBrexitnegotiationsisarguablythemostsignificanttaskahead.Ofcoursethissummaryofofficialpositionsisnotdefinitive,norcoulditbeentirelyfreefromimplicitbiases.Butitwillgivereadersfurthercontextinwhichtoconsiderthearticlesandanalysescontainedinthisissue,withtheprovisothatnewpositions,policies,andpaperswillemergeduringtheprocess.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 29
The EU position
1. On trade, theEUhasconsistentlystated itwouldadaptitspositiontothe‘redlines’setoutbytheUK.Thesewereaptly depicted in a figure presented by the European
Commission’s Chief NegotiatorMichelBarnierinDecember2017
(seepage27inthisissue).On the various options -
regarding the commonmarket, customs
union, free tradeagreements and
WTOrules-seeBilaland Woolfrey in this
issue.
2. Onforeign,security,and defence policy, as the UK
will become a third state, the EUhas suggested establishing a security of informationagreement(seeillustrationonp.27ofthisissue-TheEUhas referenced the EU-NATO partnership and explicitlya ‘specific dialogue and consultation mechanism’reflecting its interest in cooperating with the UK as a‘significant foreign, security and defence player’ (seeTF50b,2018).
• In a speech on 14 May 2018, High RepresentativeFederica Mogherini said that despite Brexit, shesaw‘aEuropeanUnionthatismovingforwardandgettingstronger.AftertheUKreferendum,many...werepredictingtheendofourUnion.Well,wehaveseen, on the contrary, a relaunch of our commonprojects, a recommitment to our unity’. Mogherinialso noted her preference for ‘a consultationmechanismwiththeUnitedKingdomtocoordinateourresponsestointernationalevents,ourpositionsinsideinternationalorganisations,andouractions,whenourobjectivesalign’(EEAS,2018).
• Ina14May2018speech,ChiefNegotiatorBarnierwelcomed the UK's commitment to Europe'ssecurity and encouraged a mutual partnership,notablyby;(i)closeandregularconsultationswiththeUKonforeignpolicy,(ii)acceptingUKcontributionswherefitforpurpose,(iii)acceptingtheUK’scontributiontotheresearch
and technology projects of the EuropeanDefenceAgency,
(iv)exchanginginformationoncyberattacks,(v)establishingasecurityofinformationagreement.
3. Regarding development, the EU has not respondedextensively to the UK’s proposals favouring flexiblecooperation mechanisms, for example, through trustfunds or other mechanisms. But in his 14 May speech,Chief Negotiator Barnier mentioned specifically thatin the area of development, the EU would be‘open tocontributions from third countries and to local jointprogramming’.
TherecentfutureEUbudgetproposalrelatedtoEUexternalaction mentions no specific collaboration mechanismswith the UK, while not excluding them either (EuropeanCommission,2018).
Forlinksoftheabovementionedarticlesandotherresourcessee:http://ecdpm.org/great-insights/beyond_brexit/brexit_negotiations_who_thinks_what
What has been agreed Commonpositionshavebeenreachedonanumberoftopics,withthecaveatthatnoagreementonanythingcanbecon-sideredfinaluntilthereisagreementoneverything.Inthedraftwithdrawalagreement(TF50,2018a),particularlythepartsingreenindicatewhereagreementhasbeenreachedinprinciple.Pointsofagreementincludethefollowing:
• Thetransitionperiodendswhenthecurrentmultiannualfinancialframework(MFF)ends,on31Dec.2020(art.121).• TheUKwillremainpartytotheEuropeanDevelopmentFund(EDF)untilclosureofthe11thEDF.Inthemeantime,it
mayparticipateasobserver,withoutvotingrights,intheEDFCommittee(art.145andfurther).• TheUKwillhonouritscommitmentsinrelationtotheEUEmergencyTrustFundforStability,theFacilityforRefugees
inTurkey,and‘anyfutureEuropeanUnionTrustFund’createdbeforethewithdrawalagreemententersintoforce(art.145andfurther).
• TheUKcannegotiate,sign,andratifynewtradeagreementsduringthetransitionperiodbutmayimplementthemonlyafter2020(art.124.4).
• ‘[I]n accordance with the principle of sincere cooperation, the United Kingdom shall refrain, during the transitionperiod, from any action or initiative which is likely to be prejudicial to the Union's interests, in particular in theframeworkofanyinternationalorganisation,agency,conferenceorforumofwhichtheUnitedKingdomisapartyinitsownright’(art.124.3).
30 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
ByDavidJessop
Brexit comes at a time when the Caribbean is facing many economic and political challenges. This makes it essential to achieve a rapid rollover of economic partnership agreement (EPA) equivalence in trade and to reach new understandings on UK development assistance.
Increased uncertainty for achanging Caribbean
FormostmembersofCARIFORUM(CaribbeanCommunity-CARICOM-plustheDominicanRepublic),Britain’sdecisiontoleavetheEUhasaddedtoagrowinglistofuncertainties.Itisoccurringatatimewheninternationaleconomicandpoliticalrelationshipsareinflux,tradewarsthatindirectlytouchtheregionareemerging,rules-based
systemsarebreakingdown,andtherearesignificantdivisionswithintheCaribbeanoverthefailuresandfutureoftheCaribbeanSingleMarketandEconomy(CSME).
Itisalsohappeningasnewandimportanttradeandinvestmentpartners,mostnotablyChina,are
emergingintheregion;atatimewhentheUSadministrationisseekingtoassertmuchgreaterhemisphericinfluenceregionally,particularlyinrespecttotheregion’stiestoVenezuela;andjustastheCaribbeanneedstoachieveinternationalagreementonpracticalsupportforlow-lyingstatesfacingtheexistentialthreatposed
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 31
Counting revenue from the market Photo: © AfDB Projects, Flickr.
byclimatechange.SuchconcernscoincidewitharecognitionthatthesupportivevoiceBritainofferedwithintheEUinrelationtotheregion’stradeanddevelopmentchallengeswillsoondisappear.BrexituncertaintyincreaseslikelihoodofanEPAtraderollover,post-2020Untiltheendof2020theCaribbean’stradeanddevelopmentrelationshipwiththeUKwillcontinuetobegovernedbytheEU-CARIFORUMEconomicPartnershipAgreement(EPA).However,BritainandCARIFORUMcannotmeaningfullydiscusstheirpost-2020traderelationshipuntiltheUKandEU27agreeonwhetherBritainwillremaininthecustomsunionorestablishsomesortofpolitically-ledbespoketraderelationship,oralternatively,gothehardBrexitroute.
Severalhigh-levelexchangeshavealreadytakenplacebetweenCaribbeanandBritishministersandofficials.ThesepointtoageneralcommitmentbyLondonthatthatthenationsofCARIFORUMwillbenoworseoffinanewtradeanddevelopmentrelationshipwithBritain.
MorespecificallyLondonhassaiditwill‘seektomaintaincurrentmarketaccess…toensurecontinuityoftheeffectsoftheEPA’,andbothsideshaveagreed
thattechnicaldiscussionswillfocusonavoidingdisruption,ratherthanprovidinganopportunitytorenegotiatetradeterms.
InthefaceofthecomplexityofwhatBritainistryingtoachievewiththeEU27andglobally,thiswouldseemtomeanthatthemostlikelyshort-termoutcomefortheCaribbean,givenitsrelativeeconomicinsignificancetotheUK,willbetoreachanagreementinearly2019onsomethingclosetoEPAtradeequivalence.
AlthoughtheregionandtheUKarethinkingintermsofarolloverofexistingarrangements,andatalaterdateenhancementparticularlyinrelationtoservicesaccess,muchlessisclearonhowthenon-tradepartsoftheexistinghybridEPAtext,whichincludeslanguageondevelopmentandpoliticalobjectives,willbesetaside.
GiventhattheUK’sdevelopmentpolicyisalsoinflux,onesuggestionisthatitmaybepossibletoagreeonsometypeofgrandfatherclauseensuringthatpreviouslyEU-negotiatedtradecommitmentssuchasthosecontainedintheEPA,becomepartofUKlegislationintheshorttomediumterm.Assuming,however,thatEPAtradeequivalencecanbedelivered,othermorepracticalissueswillthenarise.
InitsfinitetransitionperiodoutoftheEU,theUKhastoaccepttheadministrativeburdensofbecomingastand-alonestateanddeterminehowitspareddownbureaucracywillcopewithnewadministrativedecisionsinrealtime.
ThismeansinpracticaltermsthatCaribbeanexportersofgoodsandservicesareunlikelytoknowforsometimeyetaboutmattersasbasicasdocumentationrequirements,howgoodscurrentlyshippedonwardsfromtheUK
tocontinentalEuropewillbetreated,andifandatwhatpointadditionaltariffsorfeesmayhavetobepaid.
Itisalsofarfromclearwhatmoregeneralchangesmightoccurinrelationtolabelling,commercialshippingroutes,airservicesagreements,standards,administrativelaw,thefreemovementofgoodsintotheEU27,andthemovementofcapital,letalonethefuturecostofdoingbusinesswithorthroughtheUK.
TradeopportunitiesandchallengesTosomeextent,whateverisfinallyagreedmaybeacademic,astheexportofCaribbeangoodstotheUKandtotheEU27continuestodecline,despitetheEPA.
RecentEUstatisticsconfirmthatofthegoodsexportsfromCARIFORUMtotheEU,theUKcontinuestoaccountfor21-23%.In2015,CARIFORUMnationsexportedgoodsworthsomeUS$3.1billiontotheEU,ofwhichUS$718millionwenttotheUK.However,ifshipmentsofoil,refinedproducts,andchemicalsaresetasideitbecomesclearthattheUKremainsprincipallyamarketforCaribbeanprimaryagriculturalproduce,someprocessedfoods,andhighervalueproductssuchasrum.Furthermore,CaribbeanexportsareheavilyweightedtowardstheDominicanRepublic.
ThisimpliesthatintheabsenceofsomeformofEPAtradeequivalencewiththeUK,theCaribbeanexportsthatcouldbehardesthitintheeventoftheUKhavingtoadoptMostFavouredNation(MFN)tariffswouldbebananasandotherfruits,fishproducts,preparedfoodstuffs,clothing,andfootwear.
WhileCaribbeanExportandotherbetter-resourcednationaltradebodiesinJamaicaandtheDominicanRepubliccontinuetofocusondiversifyingandencouraginghighervalue-addedexports,
Increased uncertainty for achanging Caribbean
In its finite transition
period out of the EU,
the UK has to accept the
administrative burdens
of becoming a stand-
alone state...
32 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
thegeneralviewisthatthereislittleinBrexitthatwillalterthepresentnatureoftradeflowsifEPAtradeequivalenceisachieved.
Inthelongerterm,andmoresignificantlyperhaps,thereisasensethatifeventuallytheUK’sEPAservicesofferingcouldbeenhancedthiscouldhaveapositiveeffectontrade,althoughtodatethesparseinformationavailablesuggeststhattheCaribbeanhastakenlittleadvantageoftheUK’sorthelesssignificantEU27EPAoffersofservicesmarketaccess,otherthaninrespecttotourismfromEurope.
FutureofCaribbean-EUrelationsatajunctureBrexitwillbetakingplaceastheCaribbeananditspartnersinAfricaandthePacific(theACP)willbenegotiatingwiththeEU27towardsaverydifferentformofpost-Cotonou,post-2020,politicalanddevelopmentagreement.ThesenegotiationsareboundtostartaftertheSummerof2018.GiventheCaribbean’slimitednegotiatingcapacityandtheUK’sapparentofferofEPAtradeequivalence,itislikelythattheregionwillplace
muchmoreweightondiscussingdevelopmentissueswithboththeUKandtheEU27.InaBrexitcontexttheregionwillcertainlywishtosecureanappropriateproportionofBritain’spresent€4.5billioncontributiontotheEuropeanDevelopmentFund(EDF)post-Brexit,whileensuringthatitisnoworseoffinrelationtothenextEU27fundinground.Itwillalsowanttoknowspecificallyhowsuchsupportmightrelatetowhatitseesastheregion’s‘inherentandexogenousvulnerabilities’.
Anewformof‘specialrelationship’Fordecadesnow,Britainhasbeenengagedinaformofpost-colonialwithdrawalfromtheregionandareformulationofitsengagement.Today,itsmainpoliciesseekenhancedeconomicdevelopmentthroughtheprivatesectortosupportregionalstability;securitycooperation;supportforthemaintenanceofcommonvaluessuchasparliamentarydemocracyandhumanrights;workoncommonconcernsincludingclimatechange;lowlevelsofdevelopmentsupport;hurricanerelief;andwherepossible,mutualsupportinmultilateralinstitutionsincludingtheUN.SeenfromaCaribbeanperspective,relationsremainpositive,but
generationalchange,shiftingtradeandinvestmentflows,andthearrivalofnewerexternaltradeanddevelopmentpartnersarecausingBritaintobecomejustoneofmanyactorsintheregion.Itssignificancehasthereforediminished.
Thissuggeststhatinthemediumterm,somenewbutreducedformofspecialrelationshipwiththeUKwillevolvepost-Brexit.Stillmissing,however,isanycertaintyaboutpreciselywhatBrexitwillmean,andhowtheregionintendstogoaboutimprovingitsrelationswithotherEuropeannationsthatmightinthefutureplayaroleonitsbehalfwithintheEU27.
AbouttheauthorDavidJessopconsultsfortheCaribbeanCouncilandwritesonregionalissues.
In the longer term,
and more significantly
perhaps, there
is a sense that if
eventually the UK’s
EPA services offering
could be enhanced this
could have a positive
effect on trade.
Castriesmarket,St.Lucia.Photo:HeatherCowper,Flickr.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 33
How ‘to trade or not to trade’ is the question for third countries after Brexit What does Brexit mean for trade relations between third countries and the current 28 member states of EU? And how will Brexit affect future trade with the UK and EU 27?
BySanBilalandSeanWoolfrey
Thesimpleanswerisincreasinguncertainty.And,asweknow,marketsdonotlikeuncertainty,nordopolicymakers,exceptperhapssomeBritishones.AllEUtradepartnersareonthealert.However,specificconsiderationisneededfordevelopingcountries.Brexitcouldsignificantlyimpacttheireconomicdevelopmentthroughitsimpactontheirtraderelations.UncertaintyUntil29March2019,theUKcontinuestobeanEUmember,andthuscurrentEUtradeandregulatoryregimesapply.
However,economicoperatorsandtradersmayadjusttheiractivitiesinanticipationofBrexit,sotradeandinvestmentflowsmaybeaffectedearlier.TransitionperiodTheUKandEU27areworkingtowardsatransitionagreementcoveringtheperiodfrom30March2019untilend2020.Shouldtheyfailtoconcludeorratifysuchanagreement,therewillprobablybea“hardBrexit”(a“nodeal”Brexit).Intermsoftrade,thismeansthattheUKwillbeoutoftheEU
34 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
customsunionandoutofthesinglemarket,willhavenotradeagreementinplacewiththeEU27,andwillhavetoestablishitsowntraderegimetowardsthirdcountries.ToavoidashockandallowtimefortheUKandEU27todefinetheirnewtraderegimes,theUKcouldremainintheEUcustomsunionandEUsinglemarketduringthetransition.ThiswouldmeanthattraderelationsbetweenthirdpartiesandtheUKwouldcontinuetobedeterminedbytheEU27’svarioustraderegimes:itsbilateralfreetradeagreements(FTAs),unilateraltradepreferences(GSP,GSP+,andEBA),andmostfavourednation(MFN)tariffsattheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).However,someUKorEU27tradepartnersmightobjecttothisarrangement,arguingthatEUFTAsandWTOobligationsapplyonlytotheterritoriesofEUmemberstates,whichtheUKwouldnolongerbeasof30March2019.TheUKwouldnotbeabletoadoptalternativetraderegimeswiththesethirdcountriesunlessitlefttheEUcustomsunionduringthetransitionperiod.Whilesuchascenarioseemsunlikely,thepointhereisthatthirdcountriesdonothavetoacceptthetransitionagreementbetweentheUKandEU27asafaitaccompli,atleastwithrespecttotrade.Tradepost-Brexit,beyond2020Beyondthetransitionperiod,thirdcountries’traderelationswiththeUKwilldependonthetraderegimetheUKadopts.That,inturn,dependsontheUK’stradeandregulatoryrelationswiththeEU27.IftheUKstaysinacustomsunionwiththeEU27,itmustcontinueapplyingtheEU27commontradepolicyandtraderegime,onwhichitwillhavenosay.OthercountrieswillnothavethepossibilitytonegotiatespecialtradedealswiththeUK,andwillhavetoconsidertheimplicationsofanynewEU27tradenegotiationsorarrangementsontheirtradewiththeUK.IftheUKremainsinacustomsunionwiththeEU27butleavestheEUsinglemarket(the‘Turkeymodel’),thiswouldimpactthirdcountries’traderelationswithboththeUKandtheEU27.Thisisbecausetradeflowsarenotonlyaffectedbytradebarriers(suchastariffsandquotas),butalsobyawholesetofregulatoryissuesandstandardsembodiedintheEUsinglemarket.Newcompliancerequirementsmayseriouslydisrupttrade,increasingtimeandcostsintermsofadministrativeburdenandlogistics.IntegratedsupplychainswithintheEU28maybebrokenupiftradeviatheUKbecomesmorecomplicated.ThismayleadsuppliersandtraderstousedifferentchannelstoreachtheUKorEU27markets.Toavoidregulatorybarriers,theUKmaythusopttostayintheEUsinglemarket.
TheUKcouldremainintheEUsinglemarket,butkeepitstradepolicyautonomybyleavingtheEUcustomsunion.Thiswouldbealongthelinesofthe‘Norwaymodel’withtheEuropeanEconomicArea.Alternatively,theUKcouldopttostayinbothacustomsunionwiththeEU27andtheEUsinglemarket,inwhichcasetheUKmustcontinuetoapplyboththeEUtradeandregulatoryregimes(tothedismayofBrexiteers).
TheUKcouldremainoutsideboththecustomsunionandthesinglemarket,optinginsteadtonegotiateanFTAwiththeEU.Thishasbeenreferredtoasthe‘Canadamodel’,asCanada’sisarguablythemostadvancedEUFTAtodate.
Finally,ifnotradedealisstruck,theUKwillhavenospecialtraderelationshipwiththeEU.TheUK,tryingtohavethebestofbothworlds,hastabledproposalsforatailor-made,àlacarteUKtradeandregulatoryconvergencewiththeEU27.Oneideaisacustomspartnership,wherebytheUKwouldformallystayoutsidetheEUcustomsunionbutwouldmirrorEUtradepoliciesandcollecttariffsonbehalfoftheEU27.Anotheristhemaximumfacilitation(‘maxfac’)plantofacilitate,throughtechnologiesstilltobedeveloped,bordercooperationandregulatoryalignmentwiththeEU27.Thesewouldnotcoverservices,however.AsfortheEU27,themainconcernremainstopreservetheintegrityoftheEUcustomsunionandsinglemarket.WhilemainlytriggeredbyconcernwithintheUKandIrelandtoavoidahardborderbetweenIreland(amemberstateoftheEU27)andNorthernIreland(partoftheUK),thechoiceofarrangementbetweentheUKandEUwilldirectlyaffectthirdcountrytraderelationswithboththeUKandtheEU.ThirdcountryconsiderationsEUtraderegimeswilloverallnotbeaffectedbyBrexit,asEUtradeobligationsandarrangementswillremaininplace,includingEUFTAs.However,tradingwiththeEU27,withouttheUK,willmeantradingwithasmallermarketthanpreviously.ThismightrendertheEU27marketlessattractive,affectingthebalanceofpowerandweightoftariffconcessionsandliberalisationcommitmentsmadeinthecontextofanFTAwiththeEU.ThisisunlikelytobeverysignificantformostEU27partners.Itmay,however,openthedoortoreviewandrenegotiationoftradearrangementswiththeEU.
Inthiscontext,itisworthmentioningtariff-ratequotas(TRQs),averytechnicalbutimportantissue,bothinthecontextoftheWTOandsomeEUFTAs,wheretheEU-28has
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 35
committedtoreducetariffsonspecificvolumesofimportsofparticular,usuallyagricultural,products;theUKandtheEU-27haveproposedwaystodividethesequotaspost-Brexit,mainlybasedonhistoricaltradeflows,anapproachthatsomeWTOmembershavealreadycontested,suggestingthatnegotiationsonthisissuemaybeneeded.
MoresignificantwillbetheneedoropportunityforthirdcountriestonegotiatenewtradearrangementswiththeUKshoulditleavetheEUcustomsunion.First,theUKwillhavetosetnewunilateraltradepolicies,includingcommitmentsattheWTO,whichrequireapprovalofallWTOmembers.ThirdcountriesmayusethisopportunitytoencouragetheUKtohaveamoreopentradepolicythantheEU28.TheseunilateralpolicieswillalsoincludeUKpreferentialtraderegimes.TheUKwillformulateanewgeneralisedsystemofpreferences(GSP),inwhichdevelopingcountriesmaywishtobedefinedmorefavourablythaninthecurrentEU28GSP.NewFTAswillhavetobenegotiated,basedontheEUmodelornot.Tospeedupthetransition,theUKisproposing‘grandfathering’(i.e.,copyingprovisionsof)currentEU28FTAsintonewUKFTAs,withonlyminortechnicaladjustments.Thesecouldthenbeopeneduplaterforre-negotiation.ThisisbecausetheUKdoesnothavethecapacitytonegotiatemultipleFTAsatonce.ConsiderationsforACPcountriesSeveralAfrican,Caribbean,andPacific(ACP)countriestradewiththeEUundereconomicpartnershipagreements(EPAs).ShouldtheUKnotremainintheEUcustomsunion,thesewillnolongerapplytotheUK,norwillanyotherEUFTA.ForcountriesunhappywiththeirEPA,exclusionoftheUKmaybeapositive,lesseningtheimpactoftheagreement.Itmayalsoprovideajustificationforrenegotiatingtheseagreements(theEPAsincludeanMFNprovision,suggestingthatanypreferentialtreatmentthattheEU27wouldgranttotheUKpost-BrexitandwhichwouldbemorefavourablethanthoseundertheEPAshouldbeextendedtotheEPAcountries).For
ACPcountriesthatareparticularlyreliantontradewiththeUK,suchasSouthAfricaandKenya,concludinganadditionalFTAwiththeUKmaybecomeanimperative.TradenegotiationsbetweentheUKandACPcountries,especiallyAfricancountries,willfacenumerouschallengesthough.First,theUKisunlikelytoprioritisenegotiationswithAfricancountrieswhileitseekstoestablishtradearrangementswithmorecommerciallyimportanttradingpartners.Second,negotiationswithindividualcountries,suchasKenya,maybeseenasweakeningregionalintegrationprocessesinAfrica;butnegotiatingwithblocsofAfricancountrieswilllikelyrunintothesamedifficultiesastheEPAnegotiations,asmanyofthoseagreementsareappliedbyonlyasubsetofthemembersoftherespectiveAfricanregionalblocs.
SomearguethattheAfricanContinentalFTAmayprovideimpetusforAfricanUnionFTAswiththirdcountries.However,itisdifficulttoseehowthiswouldworkinthecontextofanagreementwiththeUK.Nevertheless,giventhatBrexitwillaffectalargenumberofACPcountries,andtheywillthereforehaveaninterestineitherdevelopmentofafutureUKunilateralpreferentialtraderegimeorfuturebilateralagreementswiththeUK,someformofinternationalcooperationmaybehelpful,includingthroughtheACPGrouportheAfricanUnionconfiguration(andinthecontextofpost-Cotonounegotiations).SomedegreeofconvergencebetweentraderegimeswiththeUKandtheEU27mightalsobebeneficial,toreducetransactioncostsandfosterintegratedvaluechains.
AbouttheauthorsSanBilalisheadofprogrammeTrade,InvestmentandFinanceEconomicandAgriculturalTransformationprogrammeatECDPM.Twitter:@SanBilal1
SeanWoolfreyispolicyofficerwiththeEconomicandAgriculturalTransformationProgrammeatECDPM.Twitter:@SeanWoolfrey
More significant will be the need or
opportunity for third countries to
negotiate new trade arrangements
with the UK should it leave the EU
customs union.
36 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU will impact the food and agriculture sector of developing countries in various ways. The impact on agri-food trade flows could be significant. Brexit could also affect overall development assistance flows and foreign direct investment possibilities.
ByAlanMatthews
ThelargestimpactsofBrexitondevelopingcountryagri-foodtradeflowswillbeonexportstotheUKitself.TheUKcurrentlyaccountsforaround12%ofalldevelopingcountryagri-foodexportstotheEU.Ofthese,morethanhalfentertheUKunder‘mostfavourednation’(MFN)terms(includingMFNzerotariffs);onethirdunderpreferentialtradeagreements(freetradeagreements,FTAs)andtariffratequotas(TRQs);andasmallshare(around7%)undertheEU’sGeneralisedSystemofPreferences(GSP),whichincludestheduty-freequota-freeEverythingbutArmsschemefortheleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs).
Althoughpositionsmaychange,theUKhasindicatedthatitdoesnotwishtobeinacustomsunionnorbeamemberoftheEUsinglemarketinthelongerterm.Thiswillnecessarilyleadtoincreasedtradecostsforagri-foodtradebetweentheUKandtheEU27,evenifthetwopartiesremaininanFTAwithpreferentialzerotariffs.Dependingonthenatureofthefuturetraderelationship,costswillrisefromrulesoforiginchecks,physicalchecksforregulatorycompliance,customsclearanceformalities,andthepossibilityofdelaysatbordercrossings.
Theseadditionaltradecostswillleadtoaprocessoftradedestructionandtradediversion.TradedestructionmeansthatthevolumeoftradebetweentheUKandtheEU27willbelowerthanitwouldhavebeeniftheUKremainedanEUmemberstate.Tradediversionwillarisebecausethirdcountries,includingdevelopingcountries,willbecomemorecompetitiveinbothmarketsrelativetoUKandEU27exporters.ThiseffectwillbemainlyrelevantontheUKmarket,becauseUKexportsofagri-foodproductstotheEU27aremuchlesssignificant.BothtradedestructionandtradediversioneffectswillimprovethepositionofdevelopingcountriescompetingwithEUexportersontheUKmarket.
FurthereffectscouldarisedependingontheUK’sagriculturaltradepolicyafterBrexit.Acountry’stariffscheduleliststhemaximumtariffsandothercommitmentsthatacountryhasagreedinnegotiationsnottoexceed.TheUKhassaidthatitwilladopttheEU’stariffscheduleasitsboundtariffscheduleattheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).
Developing countries’ agri-foodtrade after Brexit
Agri-food project Mozambique. Photo: CIF Action/Flickr
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 37
Coffee cherry picking in Bugesera district, RwandaPhoto: Graham Holliday/Flickr.
Butifitwishes,theUKcandecideafterBrexittoreduceitsappliedtariffsbelowtheseboundtariffsonanMFNbasis.Todate,theUKhasgivennoindicationofitspreferredfuturetraderegimeforagri-foodproducts.IftheUKweretoloweritsappliedtariffs,thiscouldopenfurtheropportunitiesfordevelopingcountriesexportingtotheUKonMFNterms.However,itwoulderodethevalueofpreferencesforthosedevelopingcountryexporterscurrentlyexportingtotheUKunderFTAorGSPtariffregimes.
TheUKandtheEU27mustalsodecidehowtoadministerthescheduledWTOEUtariffratequotas(TRQs).TheirinitialproposaltosplitthesescheduledTRQsonthebasisofhistoricimportquantitieshasbeenrejectedbyexportersasrepresentingareductionintheirmarketaccessrights.NegotiationsmayhavetotakeplacebetweentheEU,theUK,andprincipalsuppliersonmodificationofthisscheduleunderArticle28oftheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade(GATT),whichmayrequirecompensationtothesesuppliersiftheEUTRQsarereduced.
EveniftheUKmaintainsitsexistingappliedtariffschedule,itintendstopursueanambitiousagendaoffreetradedealswhichcouldprovideadditionalmarketopeningopportunitiesfordevelopingcountries.IthascommittedtoreplicatingtheEverythingbutArmsschemeforLDCs,butitsintentionsregardingtheGSParenotyetclear.
AlthoughtheUKwouldbeallowedtonegotiateandsignFTAsduringthetransitionperiodunderthetermsofthedraftwithdrawalagreementwiththeEU27,itwouldnotbeabletoimplementthemuntilafterthecloseofthetransitionphasewhichissettoendon31December2020.MostcountrieswillwanttowaittoseewhatthetermsofafutureUK-EUtradedealwillbebeforefinalisingnegotiationsonabilateraldealwiththeUK(seealsothearticlebyDavidJessopinthisvolume).
Amoreimmediateissueconcernsthosedevelopingcountryexports(aroundonethirdofthetotal)whichcurrentlyentertheUKmarketunderexistingTRQsorFTAssignedwiththeEU.Underthedraftwithdrawalagreement,theseexportswouldcontinuetoentertheUKonthecurrenttermsuntiltheendofthetransitionperiodon31December2020,giventhattheUKwouldremainpartoftheEUCustomsUnionuntilthen.
Afterthatdate,theUKwouldnolongerbeapartytothoseagreements.ThismeansthereisapossibilitythatUKappliedtariffs(whichhaveyettobedetermined)wouldbeleviedondevelopingcountryexportsthatcurrentlyentertheUKmarketunderthetermsofanFTA.Thiswouldhaveahugelychillingeffectontheexportsoftheaffectedcountries.
TheUKisawarethatallowingtheseagreementstolapsewouldhaveaverydetrimentaleffectontradeflows.IthasproposedthatthecurrentagreementswiththeEU’sFTApartnercountriesshouldbe‘rolledover’sothattheywouldcontinuetoapplytotradewiththeUK,pendingtheopeningoffurthernegotiationsatsomefuturedate.
Givenitslimitedtradenegotiatingcapacity,itcouldbesometimebeforetheUKisinapositiontore-opennegotiationsontheseagreements.Somedevelopingcountryregionswillfearthattheiragreementswillnotbegivenpriorityinthissituation.
DevelopingcountrieswithFTAswiththeEUwillneedtodecidewhethertheyarewillingtorollovertheseagreementswiththeUK.SomedevelopingcountriesmayhopetoimproveontheircurrenttermsofaccessundertheEUagreements,butthiswouldimplyre-negotiatingtheseagreements,whichisnotlikelytohappenimmediately.ItwillbeimportantfordevelopingcountrieswithFTAaccesstoensurethatpreferentialaccesstotheUKmarketcancontinueafter31December2020.
EUFTAsoftenincludespecificTRQquantitieseligibleforreducedratesofdutywhichcurrentlycanbeusedeitherontheUKoronEU27markets.DevelopingcountriesthatuseTRQsaspartoftheirFTAwillneedtonegotiatetoensurethattheyarenotinalessfavourablepositionregardingmarketaccessafterBrexit.
DevelopingcountryexportswillalsobeaffectedbythefutureevolutionofmacroeconomicconditionsintheUK.IfBrexitresultsinafurtherdeteriorationinthevalueofthepoundsterling,andifitreducestheUK’slong-termgrowthrate,asmanyeconomicmodelspredict,householdpurchasingpowerintheUKwillbeadverselyaffected.ThiswilllikelybetheprimaryBrexitimpactondevelopingcountryexportersoftropicalproductswherecurrentEUappliedtariffsareloworzero.
AbouttheauthorAlanMatthewsisProfessoremeritusofEuropeanagriculturalpolicyintheDepartmentofEconomics,SchoolofSocialSciencesandPhilosophyatTrinityCollegeDublin,Ireland.Twitter:@xAlan_Matthews
38 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
AsBrexitapproaches,BritonswerefrequentlyremindedthatanexitfromtheEUwas,forBritishauthorities,theonlywayto‘takebackcontrolof[national]borders’(Reuters,2017).WhilecampaignersconcentratedonEUcitizens’mobilitytotheUK,thedebatewasinflamedbyaseeminglypermanentemergencyalongtheouterbordersoftheEU,culminatinginthe2015refugeecrisisintheBalkans.CriticsemphasisedtheEU’sincapacitytosecureitsexternalbordersandpreventunauthorisedthirdcountrynationals
(TCNs)fromapproaching,thenenteringBritishterritories(seeGrice,2017).Thecommonunderstandingwasthat,onceindependentfromBrussels,UKauthoritieswouldbecomeabletoselectthoseitallowedontoitssoil,thusbarringthemanyasylumseekerswaitingtoenterBritainfromcontinentalEurope(Watt,2016).
Nevertheless,acloserlookatthemechanicsofborderandmigrationcontrolintheUKraisesquestionsabouthowleavingtheEUcouldpossibly
improveUKauthorities’abilitytopreventunwantedTCNsfromenteringBritain.HereIcriticallyassesspost-Brexitscenarios,concentratingonadistantmaritimeborderspace;thatis,thestretchofMediterraneanthatextendsfromtheStraitofGibraltartotheSicilianChannel.ThecentralandwesternMediterraneanroutesofunauthorisedmigrationbetweenAfricaandEuropetraversethesewaters.ThousandsofundocumentedpeoplecrossthismaritimeareaannuallytoreachEurope.Itisthedeadliestbordercrossingtoday.TheEUhasinvested
Rock of Gibraltar. Photo: Pixabay
Brexit could make UK migration control in the Mediterranean even harderBrexit was presented as the solution for Britain to take back control of its national borders. However, a closer look at a Mediterranean British border shows that Brexit could weaken the ability of UK authorities to manage and reduce unauthorised migration to the country.
ByGiacomoOrsini
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 39
substantiallytoimprovecontrolandsurveillance.TherecentproposalbytheCommissiononthemultiannualfinancialframeworksuggestsincreasingthisspending.
Deskresearchanddatacollectedinaseriesoffieldworkstudiesconductedsince2008alongtheEU’sexternalbordersinMalta,Lampedusa,Melilla,andGibraltarindicatefewopportunitiesforBritaintoenhancecontrolofthoseenteringitsterritoriesafterBrexit.Rather,allindicationssuggestthatleavingtheEUwillreduceUKauthorities’capacitytoeffectivelycontrolunauthorisedmigration.UnexpectedandchallengingscenariosareparticularlylikelytoarisealonganalmostinvisibleBritishborderintheMediterranean:theseawatersthatseparateGibraltarfromMoroccoandtherestofAfrica.BeforediscussingtheissuessurroundingthetinyBritishoverseasterritoryofGibraltar,itisusefultoreviewBritishinvolvementintheEuropeanmanagementoftheEU’slargerMediterraneanborder.
TheUKandSchengen:PushingtheBritishbordersouthAstheSchengenzoneoffreemovementofpeopleexpanded,unauthorisedmigrationandasylumintoBritainbecameincreasinglyassociatedwithimagesofundocumentedTCNscrowdingtheimprovisedcampsofCalaisinNorthernFrance(see,e.g.,Duffin,2014).Thousandsofmigrants,mostfromAfricaandAsia,waitedthereforachancetoenterBritainunauthorised,inmanycasesaftertheyhadalreadyenteredandcrossedEuropeunauthorised.Todeterpeoplefromcrossingandkeeptheseunwantedtravellersout,BritishauthoritiesreachedagreementsonjuxtaposedbordercontrolswithFranceandBelgium.Suchcross-bordercooperationincreasedinthemonthsleadinguptothemigration
andasylumcrisisof2015(FranceintheUK,2014).ThatcrisiswasparticularlyfeltalongtheEU’smostexternalborders;thatis,inplacessuchastheItalianislandofLampedusaandtheSpanishenclavesofCeutaandMelilla.Thisiswhy,whilecooperationaroundtheBritishChannelgrew,BritishauthoritiesalsostartedcontributingtothecomplexgovernanceoftheSchengenareaoffreemovement(HouseofLords,2017).
AstheUKisnotpartofSchengen,itsgoalinincreasingcooperation,forinstance,withtheEuropeanBorderandCoastGuardAgency(FRONTEX)wastotransferatleastpartofborderandmigrationcontrolsouthwards,andthusawayfromtheEnglishChannel.Inthisrespect,overtheyearssuccessiveBritishgovernmentsmadesubstantialcontributionstopatrollingtheexternalbordersoftheEU.TheUKprovidedbothnavysupporttopatroltheMediterraneanandfinancialcontributionstoFRONTEXoperations.
Alongthesamelines,theUKreceivedspecialtreatmentfromitsEuropeanpartners.ThoughBritaindidnotjointheareaoffreemovementofpeople,theUKwasallowedtobecomepartoftheDublinRegulation.ThismeantitcouldreturnrefugeestoothersafeEuropeancountriestheyhadtransited.Withinthisframework,BritishauthoritieswerealsogivenaccesstotheEURODACarchive,inwhichdataarestored,suchasfingerprints,onTCNswhohadappliedforinternationalprotectionwithintheEU.IftheUKwouldliketoretainaccesstotheseinformationandpolicyinstrumentsafteritleavestheEU,itwillprobablyhavetoberenegotiated.Here,thus,BrexitbringsariskthatBritainmightlosecapacitytomonitorunauthorisedTCNs’mobilityinEurope(Hulme,2017).Inaddition,otherandnewchallenges
couldariseinadistantBritishborderlandlocatedatthegateoftheMediterranean.
AninvisibleBritish-Africanborder:TheStraitofGibraltarThoughenhancedbordercontrolisoftenpresentedasthecorestrategyfortacklingunauthorisedresidenceinBritain,thegreatestmajorityofunauthorisedpeoplelivingintheUKinfactenteredwitharegularpermitandthenoverstayed(Vollmer,2011).ThethousandswhohavecrossedtheMediterraneanundocumentedtoreachEuropeconstituteonlyatinyminorityofirregularTCNsresidingintheEU.Furthermore,evidencesuggeststhatnobordercanbeentirelysecured(KIB,2016).Itissimplyunfeasibletoeffectivelypatrolborders,especiallymaritimeones,astherearecountlesswaystocrossundetected,andnotechnologiesavailabletopreventit(Orsini,2015).Fromthisperspective,then,lossofaccesstoCommunitarianpolicyinstrumentstomanageandcontrolmigrationandasylumwillnotsignificantlyimpactBritishauthorities’abilitytolimitthenumberofunauthorisedTCNslivinginthecountry.
Yet,leavingtheEUcouldposedramaticchallengesforBritishmigrationandbordermanagementintheStraitofGibraltar.GibraltarneverjoinedtheEUandsharesalandandamaritimeborderwithSpainandMorocco.WithintheframeworkofaninternationaldisputebetweentheBritishandSpanishgovernments–and,partly,theMoroccanone–whichhasnowlastedfortwothirdsofacentury,thethreecountriesrecognisedifferentjurisdictionsoverthewatersoftheStrait(DeVivero,2009).Officially,SpanishandGibraltarianlawenforcementagenciesdonotcooperateatallincontrollingthesharedmaritimeandlandborder.However,datacollectedintheenclaveandobservationsthereindicatequiteadifferentstory.
40 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
Duetothemechanicsofeverydayinternationalbordermanagement,GibraltarianandSpanishforcesdefactocollaborateratherclosely.Thisisrecognised,thoughonlyobliquely,inofficialdocumentsissuedbyGibraltarianauthorities(GPR,n.d.).Offtherecord,GibraltarianlawenforcementofficialsexplainedtomehowmigrationandbordermanagementworksinthewaterssurroundingtheBritishenclave.IfamigrantboatentersGibraltar’snationalwatersandisquicklydetectedbyGibraltarianforces,itisusuallypushedbackintoSpanishwaters.TheboatsoftheGuardiaCivilthentakethemigrantsonboardandlandthemonSpanishsoil.If,instead,boatmigrantsaredetectedtooclosetoGibraltarianshores,TCNsarelandedinGibraltarandimmediatelytransferredtoSpainacrossthelandborder.Supportingsuchinformalaccountsisonehardfact:despitetherealitythattheStraitofGibraltarisoneofthemainentrancesforundocumentedbordercrossingsintotheEU,veryfewarrivalsarerecordedinGibraltar.
If,followingBrexit,Spainstopscollaborating,undocumentedmigrantscouldreachtheRockandapplyforasylumthere.ThiscouldcreatetheconditionsforahumanitariancrisistounfoldinthisdetachedBritishterritory.Furthermore,SpainoperatesasophisticatedmaritimebordercontrolapparatusontheStrait,calledtheIntegratedExteriorSurveillanceSystem(Carling,2007).TheUK’scontinuedrelianceonthissystemwouldbecomeimpossiblewithoutcooperationwithSpainandtheEUinplace.Asseenhere,therearenogroundstothinkthatBrexitwillenhanceBritishcontrolofitsborders.Rather,theUK’sdevolutionfromtheEUwillpotentiallyturnGibraltarintoagateforTCNstoenterBritaindirectlyfromthecoastsofNorthAfrica.
References• Carling,Jørgen(2007,7June),‘The
meritsandlimitationsofSpain'shigh-techbordercontrol’.MigrationPolicyInstitute.www.migrationpolicy.org/article/merits-and-limitations-spains-high-tech-border-control
• DeVivero,JuanLuisSuárez(2009),JurisdictionalwatersintheMediterraneanandBlackSeas.Brussels:PolicyDepartmentforStructuralandCohesionPolicies,EuropeanParliament.
• Duffin,Claire(2014,21October),‘MigrantsfightinCalaisforcontrolofroutestoBritain,saypolice’,TheTelegraph.www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11178783/Migrants-fight-in-Calais-for-control-of-routes-to-Britain-say-police.html
• FranceintheUK(2014),‘FranceandUKagreestepstocombatillegalmigration’,London:EmbassyofFranceinLondon.https://uk.ambafrance.org/France-and-UK-agree-steps-to
• GPR(n.d.),AnnualreportoftheGibraltarPoliceAuthority,2013-2014.Gibraltar:GibraltarPoliceAuthority.http://gpasurvey.com/images/publications/Annual_Reports/GPA_Annual_Report_2013-2014.pdf
• Grice,Andrew(2017,18January),‘FakenewshandedBrexiteersthereferendum–andnowtheyhavenoideawhatthey'redoing’.Independent.www.independent.co.uk/voices/michael-gove-boris-johnson-brexit-eurosceptic-press-theresa-may-a7533806.html
• HouseofLords(2017),‘LeavingtheEuropeanUnion:FrontexandUKBorderSecurityCooperationWithinEurope’.London:HouseofLordsLibrary.http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/LIF-2017-0039
• Hulme,Benjamin(2017,2March),‘CouldBrexitbeaboontohumansmuggling?’OpenDemocracy.www.
opendemocracy.net/benjamin-hulme/could-brexit-be-boon-to-human-smuggling
• KIB(2016),Migration.Leuven:KringvoorInternationaleBetrekkingen.
• Orsini,Giacomo(2015),‘Goodpoliciesneedtobegroundedinreality’.ZOCALOPublicSquare.www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2015/10/21/the-refugee-crisis-is-not-temporary/ideas/up-for-discussion/#Giacomo+Orsini
• Reuters(2017,7December),‘WholeoftheUKneedstotakebackcontrolofbordersandcashfromEU,Johnsonsays’.Reuters.www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-johnson/whole-of-the-uk-needs-to-take-back-control-of-borders-and-cash-from-eu-johnson-says-idUSKBN1E11M8
• Vollmer,Bastian(2011),IrregularmigrationintheUK:Definitions,pathwaysandscale.MigrationObservatoryBriefing.Oxford,UK:COMPAS,UniversityofOxford.
• Watt,Nicholas(2016,25May),‘EUreferendum:Voteleavefocusesonimmigration’.BBC.www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36375492
AbouttheauthorGiacomoOrsiniisapostdoctoralresearcherattheUniversitéCatholiquedeLouvain.HeteachesinternationalmigrationattheUniversitéLibredeBruxellesandisanassociatememberoftheVrijeUniversiteitBrusselandtheUniversityofEssex.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 41
Europe’s gender action beyond BrexitThe UK has played an influential role in EU gender and development policy, including the second Gender Action Plan on Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment (GAP II). Is the institutional cultural shift promised by GAP II strong enough to keep gender high on the EU development agenda post-Brexit? There is a growing sense that GAP II has gained enough institutional momentum to continue regardless.
ByGillAllwood
TheEUhaslongbeencommittedtogenderequalityasafundamentalvalueandtogendermainstreaming.TheCotonouAgreement(2000/483/EC),whichhasgovernedrelationsbetweentheEUandthe79African,Caribbean,andPacific(ACP)countries,states,‘Systematicaccountshallbetakenofthesituationofwomenandgenderissuesinallareas–political,economicand
social’(Article1).The2005ConsensusonDevelopmentreiterates,‘TheEUwillincludeastronggendercomponentinallitspoliciesandpracticesinitsrelationswithdevelopingcountries’(EuropeanCommission,2006).ThisbroadobjectivewasfleshedoutintheEuropeanCommission’s(2007)communication‘GenderEqualityandWomen’sEmpowermentinDevelopmentCooperation’.
Mural of Simone Veil, (Honorary Dame of the Order of the British Empire). Photo: Thierry Ehrmann/Flickr
42 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
Whileimportant,theserhetoricalcommitmentslackedaplanofactiontotranslatethemintopractice.The2010‘ActionPlanonGenderEqualityandWomen’sEmpowerment’(theGenderActionPlan,orGAP)aimedtodopreciselythis(EuropeanCommission,2010).Itemphasisedathree-prongedapproach:mainstreaminggenderinalldevelopmentactivities,continuingtosupportinterventionstargetedspecificallyatwomenandgirls,andintroducinggenderequalityandwomen’sempowermentintopoliticaldialogue.However,theGAPhadlimitedsuccess.EvaluationscriticisedthegulfbetweentheEU’scommitmenttogenderequalityanditsinternalcapacitytoimplementit(Watkinsetal.,2015;O’Connell,2013).ThesecondGAP,adoptedbytheCouncilinOctober2015,aimstoaddressthisandotherfailings(EuropeanCommissionandHighRepresentative,2015).GAPIIhasfourpriorities,threethematicandonecrosscutting.
Thethreethematicprioritiesare:• ensuringgirls’andwomen’sphysicalandpsychological
integrity,• promotingeconomicandsocialrightsandempowermentof
girlsandwomen,and• strengtheninggirls’andwomen’svoiceandparticipation.
Thecrosscuttingpriorityisinstitutional,andpresentedasapreconditionforachievingtheotherthree:• shiftingCommissionservicesandtheinstitutionalculture
oftheEuropeanExternalActionService(EEAS)tomoreeffectivelydeliveronEUcommitments.
Thisincludesincreasingthenumberofwomenheadsofdelegation,boostinggenderexpertisewithintheEUinstitutionsanddelegations,andincreasingthenumberofprogrammesandprojectsinwhichgenderequalityisaprincipalorsignificantobjective.
TheUKandGAPIITheUKhasbeenactiveinGAPII’sdevelopment,particularlyinensuringastrongfocusonresultsandontheEUinstitutions’internalworkingsandculture.TheUKwasaleadingvoiceintheCouncil,alongwithanumberoflike-mindedcountries,insupportoftheinclusionofsexualandreproductivehealthandrightsinbothGAPIIandtheEuropeanConsensusonDevelopment.Thisrequiredsignificanteffort,asoppositionwasraised.NumerousUKnationalexpertshavebeensecondedtoEEASandthedelegations,andUKcivilsocietyleadershavecontributedvitalexpertise.
TheUK’sInternationalDevelopment(GenderEquality)Act2014,whichintroducedadutytohaveregardforgenderinequalityandreportoneffortstoremedyitandtoadvancewomen’sempowerment,isseenasanexampleofbestpractice(EuropeanCommissionandHighRepresentative,2017).DFID’s2018Strategic
VisionforWomenandGirlsprovidesfurtherevidenceoftheUK’scommitmenttogenderanddevelopment,althoughtheUKdoesnotgoasfarasSweden,whichhasproducedafeministforeignpolicy(GovernmentOfficesofSweden,2018).TheUKhasalsoprovidedleadershiponsexualviolenceinconflict.AttheUNlevel,theUKandEUhavesupportedeachother’sworkaroundgender,forexample,intheadoptionofResolution2242(2015)ontheroleofwomenincounteringviolentextremism.
ThebudgetandGAPIIGAPIIencouragestheEUanditsmemberstatestoincreasetheproportionofODAdirectedtowardsprogrammeswithagendercomponent.Yet,withareducedbudgetfollowingBrexit,thereisconcernabouttheabilitytomaintainGAPII’simplementation.Istheenvisionedinstitutionalculturalshiftalreadysufficientlyanchoredtokeepgenderontheagendawhenresourcesarescarce?
GAPIIdoesnotpromiseextraresources.Itstates,‘CommissionServicesandEEAS…willworktowardsensuringadequatefinancialandhumanresources’(EuropeanCommissionandHighRepresentative,2015,para.B).Thisistobedoneinseveralways:throughimprovedpartnershipandcoordination,including,potentially,theprivatesector;bycloselymonitoringexternalrelations’resourceandbudgetallocationstogender;andby‘identifyingmeansofensuringadequatefinancialsupport’.Theemphasisison‘moreeffectiveandefficientuseofresources’(ibid.,p.13).ResourceallocationforGAPIIimplementationisnowanimportantquestion,asmemberstatesarenegotiatingthenextmultiannualfinancialframework(MFF).AfundinggapleftbytheUK’swithdrawalcouldmakethisprocessmoredifficult.
BrexitisalreadyhavingadirectfinancialimpactonUKaidrecipients.Thefallinthepound’svaluefollowingthe2016referendumhasreducedtheamountofmoneyavailabletoUKcivilsocietyorganisations(CSOs),includingthoseworkingongenderequalityandwomen’sempowerment.UKCSOswillbefurtheraffectedbytheirlossofEUfunding(Bond,2017,p.6).ThiswillimpactCSOsworkingonHIV/AIDS,reproductivehealth,andfamilyplanning,andtheirdevelopmentpartners.AlthoughsomeactorsintheCommissionandEEAShavedemonstratedstrongcommitmenttogenderequalityandwomen’sempowerment,genderisnotnecessarilyperceivedbyallasatoppriority.Whenresourcesarescarce,gendertendstobepusheddowntheagenda,treatedasaluxuryaffordableonlyintimesofplenty.GAPIIseekstoensurefullinstitutionalisationofactionfavouringgenderequalityandwomen’sempowerment,thusprovidingabufferagainstpoliticalandfinancialchange.
BrexitandGAPIIThereisasenseintheEUinstitutionsthattheUKwillbemissedasagenderanddevelopmentpartner.However,GAP
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 43
IIseemstohavegainedsufficientinstitutionalmomentumtocontinueregardlessoftheUK’scontribution.ThereiscurrentlystrongpoliticalleadershipforGAPII,includingDevelopmentCommissionerNevenMimicaandHighRepresentativeFedericaMogherini.Mimica,forexample,declaredin2015thathewouldbe‘themostvocalmalefeminist’intheCollegeofCommissioners.‘Genderisdefinitelyapriority’,hesaid,‘andthiswillbeevermorevisibleinourconcretedevelopmentactions’(Gotev,2018).
QuestionsremainonfutureUKcooperationwiththeEUandlike-mindedmemberstatesongenderanddevelopment.TheEUandOECDencouragecoordinationofaidactivities,asawaytoimproveaideffectiveness.Insomecountries,forexample,Ghana,theUKisworkingwithEUinstitutions,EUmemberstates,andothercountries,suchasNorwayandSwitzerland,throughjointprogramming.Thereispotentialhereforcontinuedcooperationandsharingofexpertise.Inaddition,theUKisactiveintheDACNetworkonGenderEquality(GENDERNET).AccordingtoBond(2017),UKCSOswanttocontinuetohaveavoice,tocooperatewithEuropeancivilsocietynetworks,andtoensurethatBrexitdoesnotdisadvantagethepartnerstheyworkwithintheglobalSouth(Bond,2017,p.4).
ThefutureofGAPIIwillbeinfluencedbyfactorsotherthanBrexitaswell.Thebroaderpoliticalandinstitutionalcontext,includingthenewCommission,EuropeanParliament,andMFF,willlikelyhavemoreinfluencethanBrexitontheEU’scommitmenttogenderequalityandwomen’sempowermentandonitssuccesstowardsthesegoals.Moreover,the(gendered)impactofEUdevelopmentpolicydependsonmorethanjustGAPII(Allwood,Guerrina,andMacRae,2013).Trade,migration,andclimatechangeareexamplesofUKandEUpolicyareasthatareinsufficientlygendermainstreamedandwhichhavesignificantgenderedimpact(Allwood,2014,2015).Tradepolicyaffectswomenandmendifferentlyduetostructuralinequalities,suchastheunequaldivisionofunpaidcareworkandwomen’slimitedaccesstoandcontroloverresources(EuropeanParliament,2018,paraB).Tradeliberalisationcanincreasegenderpaygaps(ibid.,para15).Inits2018ReportonGenderEqualityinEUTradeAgreements,theEuropeanParliamentcalledforallnecessarymeasurestobetakentopromotegenderequalityandwomen’sempowermentintrade.
ConclusionDevelopmentNGOsareworkinghardtoensurethatBrexitdoesnotadverselyaffectdevelopingcountriesandthepeoplelivinginthem.However,Brexitisnotthemainfocusoftheirconcernssurroundinggenderequalityandwomen’sempowerment.Here,theyareworkingtoensurethatGAPIIcontinuestobeeffectivelyimplemented,thatgenderbudgetingguidesformulationoftheMFF,thatgenderequalityisconsideredinEUtraderelations,andthatcivilsocietyinEuropeandinpartnercountrieshasthecapacitytoworkwiththeEUandholditaccountable.
References• Allwood,G.(2014),‘GendermainstreamingandEUclimate
changepolicy’,EuropeanIntegrationOnlinePapers,SpecialIssue1,18.
• Allwood,G.(2015),‘Horizontalpolicycoordinationandgendermainstreaming:ThecaseoftheEuropeanUnion’sglobalapproachtomigrationandmobility’,Women’sStudiesInternationalForum48,doi:10.1016/j.wsif.2014.10.004.
• Allwood,G.,R.Guerrina,andH.MacRae(2013),‘UnintendedconsequencesofEUpolicies:ReintegratinggenderinEuropeanstudies’,Women’sStudiesInternationalForum39,doi:10.1016/j.wsif.2013.05.001.
• Bond(2017),TheimpactofBrexitonUKandEUinternationaldevelopmentandhumanitarianpolicy:ViewsfromUKandEuropeancivilsociety.London:Bond.
• CotonouAgreement(2000/483/EC),PartnershipagreementbetweenthemembersoftheAfrican,CaribbeanandPacificgroupofstatesoftheonepart,andtheEuropeanCommunityanditsmemberstates,oftheotherpart,Protocols.Finalact.
• DFID(2018),DFIDstrategicvisionforgenderequality:Acalltoactionforherpotential,ourfuture.London:DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment.
• EuropeanCommission(2006),TheEuropeanconsensusondevelopment.Brussels:EuropeanCommission.
• EuropeanCommission(2007),CommunicationfromtheCommissiontotheEuropeanParliamentandtheCouncil:Genderequalityandwomen’sempowermentindevelopmentcooperation.Brussels:EuropeanCommission.
• EuropeanCommission(2010),EUplanofactionongenderequalityandwomen’sempowermentindevelopmentcooperation,SEC(2010)265Final.Brussels:EuropeanCommission.
Forafulllistofreferencesseethewebversionofthisarticleonourwebsite:http://ecdpm.org/great-insights/beyond_brexit/europes-gender-action-brexit/
AbouttheauthorGillAllwoodisprofessorintheSchoolofArtsandHumanitiesofNottinghamTrentUniversity.
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High stakes: Brexit, security,and defenceBrexit comes at a critical moment for the UK, with its global aspirations, and for the EU, as it seeks to revive enthusiasm for the European project through a series of security initiatives. Failure to reach agreement will damage all concerned in the short term, but may leave the EU more focused and capable in the longer term.
BySimonDuke
Amisom exercise at sea, EUCAP Somalia.Photo: Francesca Marretta
BritaingoesglobalPrimeMinisterMaypresentedthefirstglimpseofherplanforBritain’spost-Brexitforeignandsecuritypolicyon17January2017inaspeechatLancasterHouse,repletewithnolessthan18referencesto‘GlobalBritain’.Thetermwasenthusiasticallyadoptedbyhergovernment,butremainslargelyunformulatedinpolicyterms.TheUKgovernmentcalledfora‘deepandspecialpartnershipwiththeEUthatgoesbeyond
existingthirdcountryarrangements’inapositionpaperonsecurity,defence,anddevelopmentof12September2017.MaythenreassuredherEuropeanpartnersinFlorenceon22SeptemberthattheUK’s‘determinationtodefendthestability,securityandprosperityofourEuropeanneighboursandfriendsremainssteadfast’.TheUK’sclaimtoabespokepost-BrexitrelationshipwiththeEUrestsonitspastandcurrentcontributionstotheEU’sCommonSecurityandDefencePolicy
(CSDP)and,forinternalsecurity,uponitscontributionstothecollectiveefforttocounterterrorismandorganisedcrime,aswellastodefendagainstcyberandhybridthreats.TheMaygovernmenthasreinforcedthesenseofentitlementbynotingthattheUK’sdefenceexpenditureisthelargestintheEU(andsecondlargestinNATO),thatithasthelargestdefenceindustry,andthatithascontributedtothemajorityofCSDPoperationsandmissions.
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 45
Yet,bythetimeoftheMunichSecurityConferenceinFebruary2018,theunderlyingmessagehadsubtlyshifted.Settingoutthegovernment’snegotiationposition,Maycalledfor‘anewTreatytounderpinourfutureinternalsecurityrelationship’.RegardingsecuritybeyondtheEU,shecalledforalooser‘agreement’,observingthatotherformsofassociation,suchasbilateraloradhocgroupings,couldincorporatetheUK.
Leadershipanddiplomaticsupport…butnotmanybootsAcloserexaminationoftheUK’sactualrecord,basedondatafromtheEuropeanUniversityInstitute,showsthatofthe35pastorcurrentCSDPmissionstheUKcontributedto25,withanaverageof15.72personnelpermission.Acrossallthemissions,theUK’spersonnelcontributionsequalled2.3%ofthetotalcontributionsbyEUmembers(or4.3%ofthoseoperationsandmissionstowhichitcontributed).TheUK’scontributionspaleincomparisontoFrance,Italy,andSpain,whichhavecontributedappreciablymoretocivilianandmilitaryoperationsoverall.Ononlyoneoccasion,aregionalmaritimecapacitybuildingmissionfortheHornofAfricaandtheWesternIndianOcean(EUCAPNESTOR),hastheUKledthepersonnel
contributions(with19personnel).AngusLapsley,formerUKAmbassadortothePoliticalandSecurityCommittee,andothershavearguedthattheUK’scontributionstoCSDPoperationsandmissionshavetendedtobe‘moreaboutleadershipanddiplomaticsupport’.
Significantly,allexceptoneoftheCSDPoperationsandmissionstowhichtheUKdidnotcontributewereinAfrica.Innearlyallofthese,Franceassumedthelead,alsotyingitsleadershiproletoitsownstrategicinterests.Thishasimpliedgreatercommitmentsofpersonnelandresources,oftenas‘frameworknation’.AfricaoperationsinwhichtheUKhasbeeninvolved(ATALANTA,SOPHIA,andEUCAPNestor)havefocusedonprotectingtheintegrityofsea-lines-of-communication(SLOCs).ForATALANTA,theUKprovidestheoperationalheadquarters(ItalyandSpainarevyingforitspost-Brexitrelocation).Presumably,post-BrexittheUKwillcontinuetocontributethroughNATO,thusparadoxicallyreinforcingtheneedforparalleloperationswiththesameobjectives.
AsimilarpatternisevidentintheUN.ThemajorityofUNpeacekeeperssince2000havebeendeployedtosub-SaharanAfrica,
whichisofrelativestrategicinsignificancefortheUK,comparedtotheBalkans,Afghanistan,andIraq.
PrimafacieitcouldbeconcludedthattheEU’ssecurityoperationsinAfrica,especiallysub-SaharanAfrica,willbelittlechangedbyBrexit.Moregenerally,itisdifficulttoavoidtheconclusionthattheUKhasexaggerateditscontributiontoCSDPoperationsandthusthebasisuponwhichitcaninsistuponabespokesecurityanddefencerelationship.FortheUKthecriticalquestioniswhetheritwillwishtoassociatewithCSDPmissionsoroperationswhenithasnosayinshapingtheirunderpinningprioritiesanddecisions.
NavelgazingTheUK’sprimarypost-BrexitsecurityinterestliesincontinuedassociationwithaspectsoftheEU’sinternalsecurity,nottheexternaldimensions,asMichelBarnier’sslideof15May(reproducedinthisvolume)suggests.TheUKwishestomaintainitsaccessto,aswellascontributeto,theEuropeanArrestWarrant,thesecond-generationSchengenInformationSystem(SISII),theEuropeanCriminalRecordsInformationSystem(ECRIS),andthePassengerNameRecord(PNR)database,alongsidetherelevantEUagencies(notablytheEUAgencyforLawEnforcementCooperation,Europol).BritishinterestsareclearlymatchedontheEUsidebythedesirabilityofsecuringcontinuedUKinputintothedatabases.Nevertheless,thequestionofdataprotectionandwhethertheUKwillacceptlegalrecourse,presumablythroughtheEuropeanCourtofJustice,willbecritical.Mayhasbeencontradictoryonthispoint.ShevowedtoendthejurisdictionoftheCourtinherLancasterHousespeech,butappearedtoacceptitinthiscontextattheMunichSecurityConference.
FailuretofindagreementonthenominallyinternalaspectsofsecurityPoliceacademy,Somalia.PhotoEUCAPSomalia,FrancescaMarretta
46 | Great Insights | Summer 2018
couldhaveimplicationsforNorthAfricaandtheSahel,whereeffortstostemirregularmigration,thegrowthofjihadistgroups,trafficking,organisedcrime,andterrorismarealreadyprovingchallenging.LackofaccesstotherelevantdatabaseswouldleavetheUKmorevulnerableandweakentheEU’seffortsintheseregions.TheongoinguncertaintiesoverGibraltarandCyprus(bothofwhichmayberelevantinfuturemilitarydeploymentsandintelligence)andlackofEUaccesstoUKexpertiseandfundingmaysimilarlythwartEUeffortsgoingforward.Theprospectofdiminishedoverallpost-BrexitEUfundingmayreducetheUnion’sleverageatatimewhentheEUisintentonexternalisingitsbordermanagementandincreasingdefences
MovingaheadwithoutBritain?TheEUhasbeenfarfromidlesincetheUK’sJune2016referendum.AflurryofinitiativesinEUsecurityanddefencefollowedtheunveilingoftheUnion’sGlobalStrategy,whichappearedonlydaysafterthereferendum.ThisledFedericaMogherini,theHighRepresentative,toassertthat‘morehasbeenachievedinthelasttenmonthsthaninthelasttenyears’,astatementsherepeatedatthe2017editionofTheStateoftheUnionconferenceinFlorence.Thisprogresswas,atleastinpart,duetotheUK’santicipatedexitfromtheEU.TheambitionistomovetowardsaEuropeanDefenceUnionfeaturingcoordinateddefencereviewsandalegalframeworktoattainsharedcommongoalsalongsideCommissionfundingfordevelopingthenecessarycapabilities.
Evenifmuchofthisprogresstodateexistsprimarilyonpaper,itneverthelessraisesbroaderquestionsabouttheextenttowhichUKdefenceindustries,someofwhicharemultinational,willhaveaccesstoEUresearch
anddevelopmentfunding.MorecoordinationattheEuropeanlevel,alongwithpoolingandsharingcapabilities,mayultimatelychallengelonger-terminteroperabilitywiththeUK.
Actions conjointes?TheUK’spost-BrexitbilateralsecuritytiesmaybeofmostconsequenceforEurope’ssecurity.NoneismoreimportantthanFrance.TheAnglo-FrenchCombinedJointExpeditionaryForcecouldconceivablyprovideausefulbackstop.TheUKandFrancemayalsosupporteachotherontheirrespectivestrategicpriorities,asoutlinedattheJanuary2018Anglo-FrenchsummitattheRoyalMilitaryAcademySandhurst,wheretheUKagreedtoprovideChinookhelicopterstosupportFrance’songoingBARKHANEoperation,inadditiontotheexistingRAFstrategicairtransportflights.FrancehasagreedtodeployFrenchtroopstotheUK-ledNATObattlegroupinEstoniain2019aspartoftheAlliance’sEnhancedForwardPresence.
BilateralsecurityrelationsmayalsobestrengthenedthroughPresidentMacron’sEuropeanInterventionInitiative(EII)which,whilelackinginspecifics,isintendedtobelaunched‘withpartnersthathavethenecessarymilitarycapabilitiesandpoliticalwill’.Franceisanxioustofindwaysforpost-BrexitUKto‘opt-in’toEuropeandefenceandsecurity,andtheEIIcould,intime,offerthepotentialformultilateralcooperationoutsidetheEUandNATO.
IftheEU-levelinitiativesunveiledin2016failtomaterialise,theonusmayagainfallonFranceandtheUK,asthemostmilitarilycapableandexperiencedEuropeanpowers,toprovidethebackboneofEurope’sharderautonomoussecurityguarantees.ThiswouldputthefocusofsecuritycooperationoutsidetheEUandprobablyNATO,relyinginsteadonthe
EIIorflexiblecoalitionsofthewilling.Thiscouldopenthewayformoretrade-offsbetweenUKandFrenchstrategicinterests.
ConclusionsThestakesarehighforallconcerned.FortheUKitisinconceivabletobetruly‘global’withoutbeingEuropean.ThismaywellimplyacompromisewherebytoensurecontinuedaccesstoEUdatabases,theUKmayhavetodemonstratemoreconcretelyitswillingnesstocontributetotheEU’sexternalsecurity.FortheEU,muchofthehoped-forreinvigorationoftheEuropeanprojectrestsonthesuccessofthevarioussecurityinitiativesunveiledin2016.GiventheUK’spreferencetodeployhigh-endmilitaryresources,ratherthanrankandfileinfantry,thedirecteffectofBrexitonEUcrisismanagementoperationsinAfricawilllikelybesmall,withtheexceptionofmaritimeoperations.Itis,nevertheless,possiblethatbilateraldefenceandsecurityties,particularlythosebetweentheUKandFrance,mayprovideopeningsforstrategictrade-offsandjointinvolvementinAfricansecurity.
AbouttheauthorSimonDukeisprofessorattheEuropeanInstituteofPublicAdministration(EIPA),Maastricht,andseniorresearchfellowatMaastrichtUniversity.Heisalsoauthorof'WillBrexitDamageourSecurityandDefence?TheImpactontheUKandEU',Palgraveduelaterin2018.Twitter:@eu_eipa
Great Insights | Summer 2018 | 43
ECDPM’s relevant work
How will Brexit affect the Caribbean? Overview and indicative recommendationsErrol Humphrey, ECDPM paper, August 2016
On 23 June 2016, in a referendum on whether Britain should maintain its EU membership, 52% of British voters opted to leave the Union. The vote to exit the EU (Brexit) has given rise to political and economic uncertainty in the UK and raised concerns among its international partners.
How Brexit may affect ACP-EU relations: an historical perspectiveWalter Kennes, ECDPM paper, January 2018
The Brexit weakens the arguments in favour of a continued close association between the European Union (EU) and the Caribbean and Pacific ACP states like under the Cotonou Agreement. This is mainly because these states became associated with the EU as a direct result of the UK’s accession to the European Economic Community in 1973.
Sailing new waters in international cooperation.Mariella di Ciommo and Meritxell Sayós Monràs, ECDPM paper, 30 March 2018
The EU Global Strategy and the European Consensus on Development present the drivers for the EU’s engagement with more advanced (MADCs) and middle-income developing countries (MICs) but do not offer clear guidance. This is partly due to tensions among different objectives: for example, between an emphasis on the EU’s neighbourhood and the global 2030 Agenda; or between the EU’s short-term and long-term interests.
All together now? EU institutions and member states’ cooperation in fragile situations and protracted crisesAlexei Jones and Vera Mazzara, ECDPM paper, June 2018
Ever since the EU ventured into development cooperation, questions were raised on how its institutions and member states could better coordinate their activities. Numerous initiatives were launched to put into practice their repeated commitment to work more closely together, particularly in situations of fragility and protracted crisis.
b
In June 2016, the United Kingdom shocked Europe by voting for its withdrawal from the
European Union. The political follow-up to the vote to exit the EU gave rise to uncertainty
in the UK and raised concerns among its international partners, while within the EU
some consider Brexit to remove obstacles for further integration. Over two years later,
negotiations are still taking place, although some progress is being made, there is still
little clarity on what Brexit will mean in practice for the long run.
What does it imply for EU-UK relations in the future? How will it impact development, trade
and international cooperation between Europe and Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific?
As negotiations unfold, ECDPM will provide analysis and facilitate dialogue around these
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Brexit and international cooperation
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