Beyond Start

8/8/2019 Beyond Start

1/27

Beyond START: Negotiating the

Next Step in U.S. and Russian

Strategic Nuclear Arms Reductions

Foreign Pat BROOKINGS

Sv Pf

May 2009POLICY PAPER

Number 15


2/27

POLICY PAPE

Number 15

May 2009

Beyond SAR: Negotiating

the Next Step in U.S. and Russian

Strategic Nuclear Arms Reductions

Foreign Pat BROOKINGS

S P


3/27

Ta b l e o f Co n T e n T s

fo r e i g n Po l i C y a T b r o o k i n g s i i i

aCknowledgmenTs v

inTroduCTionand summary 1

sTraTegiC arm san d sTraTegiC arm s ConTrol 5

ConsideraTionsfora follow-on TreaTy 9

elemenTsof a us ProPosal 17

endnoTes 21

abouTThe auThor 23


4/27

aC k n o w l e d g m e n T s

fo r e i g n Po l i C y a T b r o o k i n g s v

I L Bk, I D, Rb E, Ew I, M OH,T P, P P, S R, Sb b, A Vbw k w . O

, w w.

I w k G C I L

. F, I Bk C U S E.


5/27

i n T r o d u C T i o n a n d s u m m a r y

fo r e i g n Po l i C y a T b r o o k i n g s 1

moving beyond sTarT

M L A 1, U.S. P Bk

Ob R P D M

wk w, -

, b

. T b S-

A R (SAR)

Db, w w -

w b w 2002 Mw

S O R.1

T b

wk bk b J, w

P Ob w Mw. U.S. R-

R A 24, w

-M.

P Ob M

w- SAR

-b- -

w -

- w. T b bj w q

b U.S.-R

, , - -

w w,w b . T w b

- .

I , -

wk b SAR -

w

U.S. b b,

b,

. I w U.S. b

-.

A b

b

bw W Mw.

R SAR . SAR

1600 (SNDV)

bb, b-

(ICBM) ,

b- b

(SLBM)

6000 w .2

I b Db 5, 2009. T

2002 S O R (SOR),

w 1700-2200 -

w, w 2012, bSAR wk -

b U.S. R .

SOR bb b

, , -

.

negoTiaTing ConsideraTions

W w w b -

w R SAR w- b w

SNDV:

Levels o Weapons and the Nuclear Posture Review:

T U.S.

w b b j -

w . W


6/27

2 b e y o n d sTarT: ne g o T i a T i n g The n e x T sTeP i n us a n d ru s s i a n s Tra Teg iC n u C l e a r ar m s r e d u C T i o n s

U S R b b

1000 w

-- ,

w b b . T

2009

1500

w 700 SNDV.

ime: T , SAR

Db 5. I w S-

, w- k b

b Sb. W Mw

b b -

q

z w- .

Counting Rules: A k w b -

w . I

w- ,

SAR- -

b b w

b bb. T w

.

Downloading: F b-

, w w w-

w b.

T w- w-

w w-

b , SAR

, w

b- b -

b. Dw w

b w w w w

b w w -

w b .

Conversion and Conventionally-Armed Systems: T

w-

w

-

b b . A

w b w

-b b .

Constraining Breakout Potential: T w-

w

w . T b b

w -

, ,

b b

w.

Monitoring and Verication Measures: T SAR -

. Hw, w-

w

b

. I

qk, w

w b,

w b bq

.

Tird-Country Strategic Forces: A U.S. R

,

B, F, C w

. T U S R

b b w

1500, 1000, w k

- . Hw,

w b ,

b -

z U.S.-R -

.

Missile Deense: A U.S. R -

, w b -

. T w b

, b b b

1500, 1000, -

w w

. B

SAR w- -

w k k b

b Db.

actical Nuclear Weapons: A U.S. R

,

w w .

T b -

, b w b

.


7/27


a us negoTiaTing PosiTion

G SAR

Db, Ob k

SAR w- 1500

w 700 SNDV

. A bq , 2010, U-

S R .

W w- , -

w SAR

; k -

w -

b, w

bk ; w

-

. W - ,

, w w

b k

, U.S.

k -

SAR w-

.

A 1500 w 700 SNDV

w w U S R -

b ,

bw . U-

, U S - w 300 -w M-

III ICBM, 168 II SLBM (w

w ), 50 -b

bb.

T SAR wk. P-

Ob U.S.

R ww -

, w . I

P M b

, SAR wk w b b. W Mw w

w b - -

w w

. W

k w

SAR w- :

Comprehensive est Ban reaty: T U.S. -

k S ,

w R .

A Broad Nuclear Security Approach: W w

2010 N-P (NP) w

, W M-

w b w

b w-

:

; j

- w ;

- .

Missile Deense: W b

SAR w- , W-

Mw

bw ,

U.S.

C E, b j -

, NAO-R ,

b w b

.

Warhead Numbers: W

w, -

kw w -

b - w. A 1500

w, w

. Hw, -

, W Mw

w b -

w b,

- w w. A

w

q wk all

w.

actical Nuclear Weapons: W - -

w -

b w .

T

w b

.


8/27

sTraTegiC ar m s a nd sTraTegiC ar m s Co nTro l


nuClear deTerrenCe

T U.S. w

b , , k -

k

w . D-

C W, S U w ; w

b w . A

k, U.S.

10,000 w.

U.S. k

U S;

U.S. . N w

E C W.

T w NAO qz w

S Ww P b k, , b , w. E-

b J,

w k j R b

C w N K

b.

F 1960 , ,

,

U.S.-S . T b -

w k

1980, w w U.S.-R .

P Ob M A 1

- wz w b

-b- b. A

z w b k

b . I w q

- w

w -

.

I k w b b

, ,

w w

b - -. I , b w

w , k w

k w -

w .

F b , w-

w U.S.

, b -

U.S. b b,

b, ,

. R . T U S

b, , . S-

b b w

k b b -

k

b. T b b -

, -

, A E A.

sTarT an d sorT

w U.S. R

: SAR SOR.

SAR S A R

, , -

.3 T ,

b P G H. W. B Mk


9/27


Gb 1991, w b 1992 L-

b P k bk-

S U. T b b

S U S

R, B, Kzk, Uk.

U , B, Kzk,

Uk

1990, S w j R .

SAR U S R

1600 -

bb, ICBM , SLBM

6000 w

bb . SAR

b w. F , ICBM SLBM

4900 6000 w

T bk SAR ,

,

, -

b

- (..,

bb). A -

b w

. T

b -

w .

I J 1993, P G H. W. B

B Y SAR II . SAR II

w 3000-

3500 w bb, ICBM,

SLBM. I M 1997, P B C

Y j b SAR

III 2000-2500 w

. T S SAR II 1996,

b R D () . I -

SAR II 2000,

U.S.-R -

; w S .

T R w

b b b SAR II 2002, w-

B ww

A-B M (ABM) .4 T

SAR III.

T SOR,

S O R , kw

Mw . S R

b P G W. B V P

M 2002 b b 2003, SOR

1700-2200 -

w. I SAR, SOR

b bb-, ICBM, SLBM. SOR b w

.5 I ,

,

w.6 T

w 1700-

2200 w b Db 31,

2012 .

Fw SOR (

ww ABM ), B -

. A

w b

1700-

2200 w

-

k -

k, b

. I ,

B b

U.S.

b.

U.S. R b

: -

(INF) . S 1987, INF

b U.S. S -

b w bw 500

5500 k. T R

z , R-

, b -

b , Mw -

.

F w SAR, U.S.-

R 2008 q

w . T B

b -

j -


10/27


. I -

w. T R

j w;

U.S. -

w

bb. Mw

b , b w

U S b w bb

b w b

w.7

W w B -

, R -

. R b -

k b,

. I,

2004-2008 R -

, Mw

w -

, R b -

.

I , Ob -

b k U.S. .

T . I

w wk w -

bb b

w w.

T Ob z

U.S.-R

b b .

T R ,

R w

w U S.

P R R -

b U.S.-S

1980, Mw

.

A P R Gb INF

SAR, -

k w S

S -

b. P G H. W. B

C kw

w S R -

. A ,

SAR, b ,

w Mw

U S q G -

, 1990-91 G , B.

CurrenT us an d russian sTraTegiC

nuClear forCes

T U S R

: bb-

, b , b-

b . E

: bb b b

b ; ICBM

, ,

b ( SLBM -

k); SLBM b

b, b-

k w . G

,

U S

w bb SLBM. R -

ICBM .

I k w -

, b U S

R

b 15 . U.S.

900

bb b : 450 -

b M III ICBM, 336 II SLBM

14 b - b, 95

B-52H bb 20 B-2 bb.8 T U.S. -

2020 2030, M III (w

b b) 2030. T U.S.

A F w k w bb, w

b 2018.

T SAR-b b U.S.

. T SAR -

w U S w 1198 ICBM,

SLBM, bb, b

5576 w.9 T bk w w:


11/27


550 M III ICBM b w

1250 w

96 I SLBM b w 576 w-

336 II SLBM b w 2688

w

56 B-1 bb b w 56 w

(bb)

19 B-2 bb b w 19 w

(bb)

94 B-52 bb b w 940 w-

( )

47 B-52 bb b w 47 w

(bb)

T -

b b

SAR . T b

. T , , B-52

bb; B-1 bb, w b

w ; 96 I

SLBM b w b

- -

.

S D Rb G

U S w SOR 2200

w 2010, Fb 2009

U.S. -

2200 w.10 A b,

w, b b w -

SAR .

R

700 bb b -

: 426 -b b ICBM -

, 228 SLBM 14 --

b (

b , w b

), 64 -95 B

15 U-160 Bkjk bb.11 G R

ICBM SLBM w

, R b

w SLBM ( B) w ICBM ( SS-

27), w w b -

b.

A w U S, SAR-bR . A

, R 814 ICBM,

SLBM, bb, b

3909 w.12 T bk w w:

180 SS-25 ICBM b w 180 w-

65 SS-25 (SS-27) ICBM b

w 65 w

120 SS-19 ICBM b w 720 w-

104 SS-18 ICBM b w 1040 w-

96 SS-N-18 SLBM b w 288 w-

40 SS-N-20 SLBM b w 400 w-

96 SS-N-23 SLBM b w 384 w-

36 RSM-56 SLBM b w 216 w-

14 Bkjk bb b w 112

w ( )

63 B bb b w 504 w-

( )

T b SLBM b -

- b b -

b b

SAR . Mw w

SOR 1700-2200

w.


12/27

C o n s i d e r a T i o n s f o r a fo l l o w- o n Tr e a T y


P Ob M L w- SAR b 2009. C-

U.S.

w R w w

b .

levelsof weaPonsan dThe nuClear

PosTure review

O k q U.S. -

w b w

. F -

SOR 1700-2200 w,

b w b

1000 w . T

w SNDV b

bw SAR 1600, 500-600 . T, w, b bj

2009 SAR w-

bw.

C 2007

b w

U S

. A , w w -

U S -

, , , -

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S ,

w k w b

q.13 T wk w, w

w b b

, b J C S O

S D. I ,

D S E

w .

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U.S. k -

-, ,

b bj.

T w -

w SNDV w

U S ; b

. O k q

j

U.S. S C w w -

w

w b w b w -

w b U.S. -

.14

G Db

w,

w b

2009 -

w 1000. U.S.

b SAR w-

1500

w 700 bb, ICBM,

SLBM. W 1000,

1500 w 30

SOR 2200. A 1500 1700-2200

b 2001 w. T

wk -

, b 2010.

T b w-

1500 w,


13/27

10 b e y o n d sTarT: ne g o T i a T i n g The ne x T sTeP i n us a n d ru s s i a n s T r a T e g i C nu C l e a r ar m s r e d u C T i o n s

SAR. T , , b-

b w b

w

. T w

b

w

, ,

w b w w ICBM,SLBM, bb.

Time

U.S. R . U-

W Mw SAR

R

w Db 5. G

w- b b S

R D, w- bb w

b b Sb. I-

, S R L, k Rb

S F R C,

A 1 w

w b A

w .15

T w k

. E SAR

w 1983 w S-

wk

U.S. - E.

SAR

1985, b w

J 1991. N SOR k

, . I , w-

, b .

F, SAR , -

w ,

b w w

j. Hw, b -

1500 w-

b Db 5. I

b k k -

b , W M-

w w b .

(T R k w

, w b

.)

O b w b

w

b SAR

- . T

: R b b S A L-

II (SAL II) 1986

. T S U

. (O R w

b w w q b

b SAR

. T

R .)

CounTing rules

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b

SAR w- . W U.S.

b SOR 2200 w-

, SAR

b bb

U.S. w

5500.

SAR b b

w SNDV. F ICBM

SLBM, w b

b w w -

b -. F

, SAR, II w

w. A b-

, w 24 SLBM b w II SLBM

b w w ,

192 w SAR

w 6000. O R ,

SS-18 ICBM w. T

75 SS-18 ICBM w b

w 750 w R SAR

6000 w.

SOR . I

b

b, b U S kw


14/27


w w ICBM SLBM,

j R kw b

b . SOR b w

R b w

U.S. , A

b w R .

G w w b w w-

, U.S. R w

k SAR- -

w- . E SNDV b b-

w b w -

. T , ,

b II w w (

w bw), SAR

w R

II w

b. W b -

w (w

), w

b w -

.

downloading

R w b q-

w, , w

-

b. I b

, b U S R w w

w. N, , w

w w -

b. T b -

bk.

T b w

b . U SAR

, 336 II (b w

w ) 14 b b -

2688 ww b 2200

bw w P Ob M

. F b-

, U.S. N w

b b - b

bw 14. H U.S. w

.

SAR w w b

b w b w -

, b . F

, M III ICBM

b w

w, II SLBM

b w w.16 SAR

w R -k -

b w.

T

w ICBM SLBM SAR -

w- . T , -

, II b w

w w . SAR

w R -

k II

b w.

(S b w

R b .) E w

II, w, 14 b -

SLBM w b 1760

w.17

I SAR w-

1500 w, U.S.

k w w U.S. R-

- b. F ,

b b

12 II ( -

24). R -

w R -k

: R b

b k 12 -

b b w .

(T b k w b-

, b w b b

.) C II

w b 12

II w 14 b

w b b w 840 w.

W b, w w

b k U S SAR

w-

b w 2200. T


15/27


R, w, w b w-

, R SLBM w w

II SLBM, R b-

16 b 24

.

Conversionan d ConvenTionally-armed

sysTems

D w bb, - b-

, b

- w

. T U S

k w w , bb

R. T R, ,

k w U.S.

w b.

SAR II (w ) w

w 100

bb - , w w

SNDV .18 T U S

B-1 bb -

, bb-

SAR I . U.S.

k SAR II w

b bb

w- SNDV w . T

w-

- bb, SAR II.

F 18 b

b - -

wk -k (LAM)

SLBM. E b b -

22 b

LAM;

w b b -

.19 S SAR q SLBM

b b

b, w ,

b SAR.

W w k k w

b

SLBM, w

w R -

b SLBM.

I Mw , R-

-

b

b. F , Mw

b b

(w R)

U S .

T U.S. N b .

C- b

. T B

w II SLBM

12 b w w-

b

k b.20 A ,

U S w w -

b . B

- SLBM -

w b k,

U S

. W -

w b -

- II SLBM,

w w

b b. Hw, w b

w

w w .

T b b R-

SLBM w

w

ICBM . S Ob -

w

,

.

ConsTraining breakouT PoTenTial

C k w q -

bk , b-

w b

w- , , b

w w


16/27


b. T

b w

b b qk. P

b w.

F w w

, w

INF . I INFb , w

w , w b

.21 U.S. R

w b. S , w

, w

b w , w

w w -

w- . T w , w,

b -

w, k kw

w w b,

b q b b

w w.

A w bk w b

w- , SAR

, b w

w. Y w b

b w b w

; w w b b

b. T , w,

.

T b bk

w SLBM -

- b. S b k

b

. F, b ,

w w k b

b ( -

w). S w w b b -

SLBM. I b

b w w b -

q q. S-

, b b

b w q q

b -b ,

w b b b

. O U.S. b,

w SLBM

b b b,

k b b SLBM.

R b w -

.22

A w b w - b,

, b k

b b w . T w-

bk w

bq b w

w w b.

I w w ,

b w ( , -

b b

b w b

.)

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b - SLBM ( , SLBM

b b).

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b

. A b --

SLBM, w,

SLBM w b b -

w b.

k . T U.S.

N

II 2013, w w b

561 II q 14 b-

B b ( U

K II w),

b

. T U.S. N k 12

b ( , w

). T N q 288

b.23 T b

II b

b w w

12 . I

b 12 SLBM

24, 144 II (12


17/27


b 12 SLBM) w b . T

w w

II , w

.

I , -

SLBM b . A SAR

q ICBM SLBM - b b

ICBM SLBM, U S R

INF .

moniToringan d verifiCaTion measures

M

, , k,

. T

b w

w , w

b .

A , SAR

z k

b, w

b , , -

, b -

. O 20 , U S

R b w -

SAR INF . F -

, Sb 2008, U.S. -

621 SAR R, B,

Kzk, Uk, w R

437 SAR U.S. .24

T R w

SAR ,

w

b. I b U.S.

w k -

. T b bj w-

. I b k

b,

-

w . T ,

b ,

w b .

Third-CounTry sTraTegiC nuClear

forCes

I U S R,

: B,F, C. (O , I

Pk, w -

- , b

ICBM, SLBM, bb.)

B - b,

w 16 II ,

b

. II B b -

w w. B P

M G Bw B-

160 w

B b

.25

P N Skz F w

w 300 w -

. T bk SLBM (F

- b, w

). F 50 M-2000

w k .26

C 37-49 -w ICBM b-

- b. C

z ICBM b

- . T -

b w

- 175.27

S

b b bw U S

S U R, w

Lb P SAR

B, Kzk, Uk w R-

. U.S. S

k B F

. Hw, w U.S.

R w,

w B, F, C .


18/27


A P Ob P A 5,

, U S

w k w

.28 T , U S R

b b 1500, 1000, -

w w

bj -

. A bw 1000 w, w, -

w b .29 T b b -

b z U.S.-R

. T b

, U.S.-R

SAR w- .

m issile defense

U.S. R b

,

b

b-

. T U.S.-S

, 1972 I A S O-

F, w b ABM ,

w -b . T -

w -

w , ,

k ,

b w

k. R

w b

b .

D P-

R S D I

1980 ,

.30 T SAR SOR

w 1991 2002 w

. I, SOR w

B

ww ABM .

Hw, U.S. R

, w

. M B -

P Cz

Rb b j b U.S.-

R . P Ob M

A 1 kw ;

bw -

w b .31

T bw w

w b

w w w

q. R D b ( D-

D M) A Kk b

. H k-

U.S. w -

, , w

-

, ABM b w

.32 O R -

1500 -

w w ,

b bw w q

.

G Db, w b

b k SAR -

w- . W U.S. R -

k w

w w- , w

b b w . I

b b U.S. R -

1500, 1000, w

w b -

. B ,

- , w

b b -

U.S. R .

TaCTiCal nuClear weaPons

I w, U S

R zb

w. T -

w, b

bw w

. O

w:


19/27


b z

b w.33 E

w -

b .

A U S R

, b b

kw w -. A C R S

U.S. b 1100 w-

, w R 3000-

8000 w.34 O , b

R .

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S U, w

U.S. b b j

U.S. k-

. W U S 1970

7000 w E

NAO S Ww

P , b -

b b bb.35

R, w, S

U w-

. T R k

18 , k z

q, w

-

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w U.S. b w

w b C w

q, R

w R . E,

NAO -

w qz

.

I w -

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b,

w w . T

U.S. b w b

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w b .

G w

NAO ,

b w

w A.

A w - -

, w b U.S. R -

, q U.S.

R w w .

U, w

w, w

. Hw, b

w-

SAR.


20/27

e l e m e n T s o f a us Pr o P o s a l


a us negoTiaTing PosiTion

I w- SAR 2009,

Ob k

U.S. R

1500 w 700

bb, ICBM , SLBM. T w b U

S R b

, b w bw SOR

2200 w SAR

6000 w 1600 SNDV. S

w P Ob M

A 1 -

U.S. R b-

A VI NP -

2010 NP w .36

W w- , k

w A 1 j ,

,

1000 w, -

b- . T

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21/27


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23/27


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24/27

e n d n o T e s


1 W H, O P S, J Sb D A. M, P RF, Bk Ob, P US A, R N FR S O A, A 1, 2009.

2 , SAR ICBM SLBM . I b , ,ICBM b , SLBM b - b. T : , b , bb b .

3 S Te reaty between the United States o America and theUnion o Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction andLimitation o Strategic Ofensive Arms, U.S. A C D A, U.S. D SD , 1991.

4 I w w b N K b b, U.S. 1990 w R ABM w . T . I Db 2001, B ww .

5 W H, O P S, S O R , M 24, 2002,://www../k///..

6 T B bq w,

w w ICBM SLBM bb bb b. I

w w w w b w U S SOR 1700-2200.

7 C w R F M ,Db 2008.

8 A F. W, U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background,Developments, Issues, C R S,

J 6, 2009, . 8.9 U.S. D S, B V,

C I, SAR ANb S O A, , A 1,2009.

10 H M. K, U S R Mw

W L E, FAS S S B,Fb 9, 2009, ://www../b//2009/02/..

11 R S N F, ://..12 U.S. D S, SAR A Nb

S O A.13 S. 1547, N D Az A F

Y 2008, k b S A SC, ://www..///2007/-..

14 S b w P Y Hk 1997, P C SAR III b bw 2000-2500. T j , w, w wk b j U.S. 2500

w, w j w . P C

w 2000-2500 Hk.15 M D. S S W, Ob, M

P C, T W P, . 1, A 2,2009.

16 SAR w . T b w. F , w 1250 w; M III ICBM bw w SAR ; ICBM SLBM w b

w w w b w. T q b w; , w, b w -w b. T b , w II SLBM b w, b b w .

17 O 18 b, b , 14 q SLBM.

18 SAR II - bb b b w bb w ,

w b w100 k b w -bb w . S reaty Between the UnitedStates o America and the Russian Federation on FurtherReduction and Limitation o Strategic Ofensive Arms(SAR II), J 3, 1993, ://./www/b/ //2/2..

19 O C SSGN-726 , GbS., ://www.b.// //-726..

20 A F. W, U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background,Developments, Issues, . 18.

21 S Protocol on Procedures Governing the Elimination othe Missile Systems Subject to the reaty Between the United

States o America and the Union o Soviet Socialist Republicson the Elimination o Teir Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, Db 1987.

22 R - b SLBM b.

23 A F. W, U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background,Developments, Issues, . 17.

24 D S, T L SAR RU.S. P.


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25 P Wb H, G Bw O C B N A, OL, M18, 2009, ://www/..k//w/k/5927160..

26 Rb S. N H M. K, F NF, 2008, B A S,Sb/Ob 2008, . 64, . 4, . 52-54.

27 Rb S. N H M. K, C NF, 2008, B A S, J/

A 2008, . 64, . 3, . 42-45.28 W H, O P S, Rk b

P Bk Ob, H Sq, P, CzRb, A 5, 2009.

29 G w, b bw

w U S R w w - . A k U.S. , J, b U.S. b J b U.S. w

w C .30 T U.S. b B

Ak C

N K ICBM b b R .

31 W H, O P S, J Sb P D M R F P Bk Ob U S

A, A 1, 2009.

32 Vk Rk, T ABM F, K Zz, M4, 2009, ://www../ 2009/03/04_03/1_02..

33 M w ICBM SLBM b b.I w w b w.

34 A F. W, Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, CR S, J 28, 2009.

35 O M, U.S. C N W E, A C A, ://www../2714.

36 A VI NP E P [NP] k

37 SAR bb w w, b bb - k. T .

38 Ew I, N S U.S.-R A C,

PIR C , Mw,M 5, 2009.


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a b o u T The au T h o r


Steven Pifer w C U S E Bk. A F S , P 25 w S D. H

w b R Uk, b Uk, -

N S C R, Uk, E.

H U.S. b L, Mw, Ww, w G w U.S.

- .


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