Bi-Annual Labout Market Reports - July to December 2016 · Provincial Economic Growth In April of...

2016>WINTER

This Calgary and Area Employment Forecast is a report published twice a year and provides a projection of employment demand and worker availability in the Calgary Region.

Applications Management Consulting Ltd.

Calgary & Area Employment Forecast

Table of Contents..........................................................................................The Economy! 1........................................................................................................Introduction! 1

...............................................................................................Alberta Economy! 1............................................................................................Provincial Economic Growth! 2

............................................................................................................Population Growth! 4

.....................................................................................................................Employment! 5

...........................................................................Industry Sector Outlook! 7...........................................................Overview of the Industry Sector Outlook! 7

.......................................................................................Industry Overview and Forecast! 7

............................................................................................Worker Demand and Supply! 7

...........................................................Labour Supply and Demand - EXAMPLE Industry! 8

.....................................................................................................Oil and Gas! 10..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 10

.................................................................................................Output and Employment! 10

............................................................................................................................Outlook! 11

..........................................................................................Labour Supply and Demand! 12

....................................................................................................Construction! 13..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 13


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 13


.....................................................................................................Retail Trade! 17..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 17


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 17


..............................................Professional, Scientific and Technical Services! 21..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 21

Calgary and Area Employment Forecast Report - 2016 Winter


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 21


........................................................................................................Education! 24..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 24


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 24


..............................................................................................................Health! 27..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 27


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 27


......................................................................................Public Administration! 30..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 30


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 31


.......................................................................Energy-Related Manufacturing! 33..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 33


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 34


.............................................................................Trucking and Warehousing! 37..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 37


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 38


...............................................................Accommodation and Food Services! 40..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 40


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 40



.....................................................Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE)! 44..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 44


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 45


............................................................................Occupation Forecast! 48.................................................................................Employment By Industry! 48

..................................................................................Industry Sector Outlook Summary! 48

..............................................................................Employment Growth by Occupation! 51

...................................................Fastest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2017! 52

.......................................Occupations With Declining Demand - Calgary Region 2017! 54

....................................................Appendix A: Forecast Methodology! 55....................................Labour Market Demand and Supply Model (LMDSM)! 55

..........................................................................................................Model Description! 56

.......................Appendix B: Detailed Occupation Demand Forecasts! 62


The Economy

IntroductionUnderstanding changes in the labour market requires a deep investigation into each of the industry sectors that affect the demand for workers. In addition, the availability of workers is affected by various labour market factors as well as migration and demographic changes.

To help understand the current economic conditions that drive the Calgary and Area labour market, a forecast of economic growth province wide has been prepared for each of over 60 two- and three-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) groups. Using this provincial forecast, allocations of regional economic employment growth have been developed for the Calgary Region. These forecasts of labour demand have been compared with the available supply of workers to identify where existing and expected labour market worker shortages can be expected to exist, and where there may be a surplus of workers.

This section of the Calgary and Area Employment Forecast report provides an overview of the provincial economy as context for the Calgary Region employment demand and labour supply availability forecasts. The economic prospects for the provincial economy play a significant role in how the Calgary Region will perform, both economically and with respect to the labour market. Other influences nationally and internationally that affect both Alberta and the Calgary Region have been considered in developing a view of how the provincial economy will change in the near-term.

Attached as appendices is an overview of the forecasting approach (Appendix A) and detail of the employment forecasts by occupation (Appendix B).

Alberta EconomyThe Alberta economy continues to undergo significant adjustments related to the downturn in energy prices and the implications for the energy sector and other industries directly affected by the energy sector. These adjustments create significant uncertainty regarding expectations for economic growth. Complicating the uncertainties regarding oil prices are the implications of the natural disaster in Fort McMurray (Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo) in May (2016) and the rebuilding of the municipality. Additional, the Alberta and Calgary Region economy will potentially be impacted by new trade policies that have been considered by the recently inaugurated Trump administration in the U.S.

Applications Management Consulting has constructed a provincial forecast of economic activity and employment that closely follows the economic forecast prepared for the third quarter update to the provincial budget (February 2017). This forecast has been developed for each of over 60 NAICS industry groups. Within this provincial forecast, economic and employment growth, by industry sector, has been allocated to the Calgary and Area regional economy.


THE ECONOMYThe Calgary economy is impacted by world and local markets. This section provides an overview of the economic prospects for the Province of Alberta.

1

Provincial Economic GrowthIn April of 2016 as part of the provincial budget, a forecast of economic growth was provided in the Fiscal Plan - Economic Outlook.1 Based on assumptions regarding the price of oil and other variables, it was projected that the economic output of Alberta, in real terms, would decline by 1.4% in 2016, followed by a modest increase in growth in 2017 (0.9%) and more substantial growth in 2018 and 2019 (approaching 3% per year).

In February (2017) the province provided a 2016-17 Q3 Fiscal Update and Economic Statement that modified these projections.2 The estimate of real economic output was downgraded to a decline of 2.8% in 2016. Real economic output in 2017 was expected to rebound at a rate of 2.4%.

Applications’ projection of provincial economic growth falls between the April and 2016-17 Q3 Update projections. Total real economic output is projected to increase by 2.8% in 2017 followed by an increase of 1.9% in 2018, with expected rates of growth slightly above 2.0% from 2019 to 2021. These medium term projections are roughly consistent with those of the Conference Board for the same period.3

Budget 2016 2016-17 Q1 Update2016-17 Q2 Update 2016-17 Q3 UpdateApplications

200

240

280

320

360

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GDP (Alberta) Total (Billions Real 2007 $)


1 Fiscal Plan - Economic Outlook - Annex Budget 2016, Alberta Finance, http://www.finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/budget2016/fiscal-plan-economic-outlook.pdf

2 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, Alberta Finance, http://finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/quarterly/2016/2016-17-3rd-Quarter-Fiscal-Update.pdf

3 Conference Board of Canada, e-Data Service.

2 THE ECONOMY

Economic Growth in the Calgary RegionThe contraction in real economic growth in the Calgary Region was updated to be more modest in 2015 and 2016 relative to the province as a whole than originally reported, but growth is projected to be somewhat below the provincial average in 2017 and 2018.

Alberta - Budget 2016 Alberta - 2016-17 Q1 UpdateAlberta - 2016-17 Q2 Update Alberta - ApplicationsCalgary - Applications

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Economic Growth: Change in Real GDP - Alberta vs Calgary Region


3 THE ECONOMY

Population GrowthGrowth of the province’s population has slowed significantly with the economic downturn. Projections of population growth for Alberta were upgraded in the 2016-17 Q2 Update for both 2016 and 2017, however, total growth will still be well below that of recent historical averages. Beyond 2017, the Calgary Region population is projected to grow at a somewhat faster rate than the province as a whole, largely due to a continued trend of rural residents migrating to major urban centers.


0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Population Growth: Change - Alberta vs Calgary Region


4 THE ECONOMY

EmploymentTotal employment at the provincial level was estimated to have declined by approximately 1.7% (a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs) in 2016 but is projected to grow at a range of 0.8% to 1.2% in 2017. Projected employment growth has been generally downgraded relative to the initial Alberta Budget 2016 forecasts.

Applications’ projection of provincial employment is largely consistent with the 2016-17 Q2 Update for 2017. Beyond 2017, Applications projects total employment growth to pick up, with annual growth rates exceeding 1.0%.

Budget 2016 2016-17 Q1 Update 2016 Q2 UpdateApplications

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment (Alberta) Total (Thousands)


5 THE ECONOMY

Employment Growth in the Calgary RegionFollowing a contraction in employment that was slightly larger than the provincial average in 2016, Calgary Region employment growth is projected to increase at a somewhat faster rate than that of the province as a whole over the forecast period. In 2021, employment growth is projected to reach 2.0%. While significantly better than the short-term outlook, this is well below the growth achieved between 2011-2015 when annual employment growth reached as high as 5.0%.


-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Growth: Change - Alberta vs Calgary Region


6 THE ECONOMY

Industry Sector Outlook

Overview of the Industry Sector OutlookThis section provides an overview and forecast of economic output, employment demand and supply for each of 11 key Calgary Region employment sectors. This includes:✓ Oil and gas✓ Construction✓ Retail trade✓ Professional, scientific and technical (PST) services✓ Education✓ Health✓ Accommodation and food services✓ Public administration✓ Energy-related manufacturing✓ Trucking and warehousing✓ Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE)

Collectively these industries represented approximately three-quarters of total employment in the Calgary Region.

Industry Overview and ForecastEach industry review contains a forecast of real output growth covering the period 2017 to 2021. These forecasts were developed based on sector-specific research, a review of existing forecasts, and the growth outlook for each industry in Calgary and how that outlook compares to that of Edmonton and the rest of Alberta.

For each industry, historical and projected employment demand figures are also provided for the period 2012 to 2021. Employment demand forecasts for 2017 and beyond are based on the forecast of real output for each industry sector. This includes consideration of labour productivity growth.

Worker Demand and SupplyEach industry review includes an analysis of labour demand and supply covering the forecast period 2017 to 2021. Labour demand is disaggregated into that which is related to expansionary demand (positions created through industry growth) and replacement demand (positions that must be refilled due to voluntary and involuntary turnover). The sum of these components is total labour demand. Labour supply is disaggregated into the portion of labour demand that is forecast to be available within


INDUSTRY SECTOR OUTLOOKThis section reviews the outlook for selected industry sectors in the Calgary Region and the factors influencing these sectors.

7

the pool of existing unattached workers in the Calgary Region (available supply), and any remaining shortage projected (recruitment gap) when the available supply of labour is insufficient in satisfying total labour demand.How to Interpret the Labour Supply and Demand Analysis ResultsEach industry outlook includes a chart summarizing the Labour Supply and Demand for that industry. This includes the information outlined above as depicted below:

Labour Supply and Demand - EXAMPLE Industry

Recruitment Gap = 1,000

‣ Expansion demand: Employment growth (or decline) resulting from expansion (or contraction) of activity in the subject industry sector. For example, when a business grows and needs to hire more workers or when a new business locates in Calgary, the increase in demand for workers would be in this category. If a sector of the economy contracts, it is possible that expansion demand for workers would be negative.

‣ Replacement demand: Where workers voluntarily or involuntarily are separated from their job, the employer has a need to ‘replace’ that worker. For example, replacement demand occurs when a worker quits their job to take another job and the employer has to replace that worker with a new hire.

‣ Labour demand: Total labour demand in an industry is equal to the sum of expansion and replacement demand. In the example above, total demand is equal to 1,750 (where replacement demand is 2,000 - 250 where the industry sector has contracted).

Recruitment Gap Available SupplyReplacement Demand Expansion Demand

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Labour Supply Labour Demand

-250

2,000750

1,000

EXAMPLE Industry - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


8 INDUSTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK

‣ Available supply: Available supply is estimated using Applications’ Labour Redistribution (Supply) Model. This model determines the potential of supply of workers in the region based on occupation according to the 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) system. Where demand exceeds supply of workers within an occupation, the available supply is assumed to be pro-rated across all industries seeking these workers.

‣ Recruitment gap: When the available supply does not meet total labour demand, there is a recruitment gap. The recruitment gap is determined by subtracting the available supply from the total labour demand. Where the recruitment gap is positive, employers in the industry will need to find workers from other industries or recruit from outside the region to fill all the positions.

‣ Labour supply: The total required labour supply is equal to available supply and the recruitment gap. It is assumed that the labour market will adjust towards equilibrium, where the demand for workers and available supply are equal. Where the recruitment gap is not closed, there will be a shortfall in projected output for that industry sector.

Labour demand = Expansion demand + Replacement demand

Recruitment gap (Shortage) = Labour demand - Available supply



Oil and Gas

Industry Sector CompositionThe oil and gas sector has been defined to include:✓ Oil and gas extraction (NAICS 211)✓ Mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) (NAICS 212)✓ Support activities for mining, and oil and gas extraction (NAICS 213)

Output and Employment

Oil and gas extractionMining and quarrying (except oil and gas)Support activities for mining, and oil and gas extraction 25%

1%

74%

Summer ForecastWinter Forecast

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

-0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.9%0.6%0.6%

-0.3%

0.8%

2.8%2.0%

2.4%

0.9%

-6.1%

Oil & Gas - GDP Growth Forecast

HistorySummer ForecastWinter Forecast

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Oil & Gas - Employment Forecast

“Summer Forecast” refers to the projections made in the Calgary and Area Employment Forecast 2016 Summer Report. “Winter Forecast” is the current forecast.



OutlookThe outlook for Calgary’s oil and gas industry has improved since the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gradually recovered through 2016. WTI traded at an average of $49.14 during the fourth quarter of 2016, up from $33.35 in the first quarter, and $45.46 and $44.85 in the second and third quarters respectively. Price growth was bolstered by OPEC’s agreement (along with non-member major producers, such as Russia) to cut production in September of 2016; with increasing U.S. crude stockpiles acting to weigh on price growth. A recent survey performed by Deloitte suggested that more than half of Canadian oil executives were optimistic that prices would continue to rise, and that these executives were significantly more confident in the prevailing business outlook relative to the Canadian average.4

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 7, 2017.

There has been some increased levels of hiring in this sector recently, including Calgary-based Precision Drilling recently hiring about 1,000 workers, but much of this hiring has been centered around U.S. projects.5 Calgary-based employment in the oil and gas sector is likely to increase gradually through 2017 with the majority of layoffs having already occurred, with growth at a slightly greater pace than the provincial average due to the number of head offices located in the city.

It has been recognized that the energy sector in Alberta and elsewhere have taken the opportunity of the downturn to try and gain efficiencies in operations. This has led to optimization activities that mean the number of workers in the sector required to produce a given amount of output is likely to

US$0

US$20

US$40

US$60

US$80

US$100

US$120

Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18

WTI Price, Monthly Average, Actual and Forecast, Jan 2014 to Dec 2018


4 World Oil, Oil execs see 2017 as a year of recovery, Deloitte survey finds, September 21, 2016. http://www.worldoil.com/news/2016/9/21/oil-execs-see-2017-as-a-year-of-recovery-deloitte-survey-finds.

5 Reid Southwick, Calgary Herald, Oil and gas drilling forecast to increase in 2017, November 2, 2016. http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/oil-and-gas-drilling-forecast-to-increase-in-2017


have declined and continue to decline. This optimization means that many of the energy sector jobs lost in the downturn may not return if/when oil prices fully recover.6

Labour Supply and Demand


With Calgary’s oil and gas sector positioned for a gradual recovery in 2017, expansion labour demand for the period 2017 to 2021 is positive (2,927), with layoffs and cuts expected to be largely in the past. On a net basis, more than half of labour demand growth between 2017 and 2021 is projected to be a result of replacement demand (voluntary and involuntary turnover) as 3,271 positions are refilled in the sector.

Although the oil and gas sector has struggled with acute labour shortages in recent years, the collapse in oil prices since mid-2014 and resulting layoffs should allow for a somewhat greater degree of ease in accommodating projected workforce hiring requirements, even with a period of significant industry growth anticipated to begin in 2018. Of the net estimated 6,198 labour demand from 2017 to 2021, the existing supply of labour in Alberta should be sufficient to fill 2,691 of these positions (43%). The remaining balance of 3,507 unfilled positions is classified as a recruitment gap, or labour shortage.


0

1,750

3,500

5,250

7,000


2,927

3,271

2,691

3,507

Oil & Gas - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


6 Leaner oilpatch emerges from recession as new technology replaces jobs, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oilpatch-downturn-technology-advances-replace-jobs-automation-1.4004855


Construction

Industry Sector CompositionThe construction sector has been defined to include:✓ Construction (NAICS 23)



-8%

-5.8%

-3.6%

-1.4%

0.8%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.8%1.0%0.9%

-0.6%

-2.0%

1.5%1.9%

-0.7%

1.2%

-6.4%

Construction - GDP Growth Forecast


60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Construction - Employment Forecast

OutlookThis sector is comprised of residential and non-residential construction. The residential component includes the construction of new dwelling units as well as home renovation. Non-residential construction includes projects with institutional, commercial and industrial purposes.

Output and employment within Calgary’s construction industry took a significant hit in 2015 as output fell by more than 10%. The downward trend is estimated to have continued into 2016, with further decline projected into 2017. The slide in construction activity has been prevalent throughout Alberta since mid-2014, but has been most acute in Calgary. The decline in Calgary-based construction is



reflected in the size and scope of projects in the region, with 135 currently under construction (valued at $14.06 billion) and just 94 proposed projects (valued at $13.26 billion).7 While hiring in the construction sector could improve, a number of factors weigh against the likelihood of a pickup in the industry. First, nearly one quarter of Calgary’s downtown office space was vacant as of the fourth quarter of 2016 (about 10.5 million square feet of unabsorbed space).8 With a number of other projects coming on stream soon, including the 707 Fifth development, the vacancy rate could rise to one-third by 2018. While the rebuilding of Fort McMurray is estimated to add about 9,000 construction jobs (and contribute 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth) in Alberta, the majority of these positions will be located outside of Calgary.9

Source: Alberta Government, Economic Dashboard.

In December of 2016, total building permits issued in Alberta fell to their lowest point of the recession. Permits issued valued $827 million on the month, down 24% from November’s level, with declines observed in both residential (down 27%) and non-residential (down 20%) sub-sectors. While the decline in permits issued may be partially related to changes in provincial building codes late in 2016 (with a surge in permits in October), the prospects for growth in Calgary’s construction industry are undoubtedly bleak.

The moderation of office building construction activity in the Calgary Region is evidenced by a moderation in the related construction price index. However, office construction costs faced by

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16

Value of Building Permits Issued in Alberta (Monthly, Millions of $), 2013 to 2016


7 Alberta Major Projects, http://majorprojects.alberta.ca/

8 Guy Dixon, Globe and Mail, ‘Cautious optimism’ for Calgary’s beleaguered commercial real estate, January 23, 2017. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/property-report/cautious-optimism-for-calgarys-beleaguered-commercial-real-estate/article33701512/

9 Geoffrey Morgan, Financial Post, Challenge 2017: Fort McMurray faces massive rebuild after most expensive natural disaster in Canadian history, December 28, 2016. http://business.financialpost.com/news/challenge-2017-fort-mcmurray-faces-massive-rebuild-after-most-expensive-natural-disaster-in-canadian-history


developers have declined only modestly since mid-2014 (down by about 3.5% in Calgary), compared to the 2009 recession when costs posted a major drop.10

Office Building Construction Price Index

The residential housing market in the Calgary Region has also slowed, as evidenced by an increase in the number of newly constructed homes that remain empty. Slowing population growth is expected to continue to dampen new residential construction.

Completed But Unabsorbed Housing


10 ATB, Office construction costs flat-lining, February 17, 2017. http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/Pages/the-owl.aspx?aid=690


Even with a projected recovery in energy prices, a glut of both residential and commercial space on the market in Calgary will result in only a modest pickup in the construction industry through 2021, with employment growth generally below that of the provincial average.



Even with a substantial contraction in Calgary’s construction sector in 2016, further decline in 2017 and 2018 should keep expansion labour demand limited through the duration of the forecast (790). On a net basis, new construction jobs in Calgary are forecast to be almost exclusively a result of replacement demand (7,864). Replacement demand is especially strong in the construction sector due to the high rates of turnover typically observed in this industry.

Calgary’s construction industry is not forecast to encounter a significant shortage of labour. Following employment cutbacks between 2016 and 2018, the supply of available labour in Alberta should be capable of filling the majority of new demand once activity begins to pick up. A net shortage of 2,544 workers is projected through 2021, representing a shortfall of about 29% of total labour demand.


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


790

7,864

6,110

2,544

Construction - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



Retail Trade

Industry Sector CompositionThe retail trade sector has been defined to include:✓ Retail trade (NAICS 44-45)



0%

0.5%

1%

1.5%

2%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.2%1.3%

1.2%

0.8%

1.4%

0.6%

0.9%

1.5%

0.6%

0.4%

Retail Trade - GDP Growth Forecast


60,000

66,000

72,000

78,000

84,000

90,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Retail Trade - Employment Forecast

OutlookAfter two consecutive years of substantial increase in 2014 and 2015, employment growth in the retail sector slowed in 2016. Slowing population growth (relative to recent historical levels), diminished earnings, and a high unemployment rate in Calgary should dampen the near-term output and employment outlook. This is evidenced in some significant retail sectors such as the purchase of new automobiles.



Per Capita New Vehicle Sales in Alberta ($/capita)

As of November 2016, per capita rates of retail spending in Alberta remained the highest in Canada (at about 16% above the national average), supported by young demographics in the province, as younger families tend to spend more on establishing households and raising children.11 The median age of Albertans is 36.3 years, compared to a national average of 40.6. Albertans also enjoy the highest average weekly earnings in Canada, but this figure was down by 1.6% year-over-year in November, at $1,114.20.

Some unemployed Albertans could soon run out of EI benefits, severance, and/or credit and savings in the coming months, acting to stall retail spending. Retail spending in Alberta picked up in the second half of 2016, but total spending was down by 1.6% relative to 2015 levels - only the third annual reduction in retail sales in Alberta over the past 25 years.12 However, wholesale sales (considered a leading indicator for retail sales) in Alberta were up in December of 2016 by 2.3% on the month, leading to some optimism in the sector.

Overall, output and employment growth in this sector should remain positive in the Calgary region, but at rates below the recent historical trend, and likely below that of the provincial average in the near-term due to Calgary’s relatively higher unemployment rate.


11 CBC News, Albertans’ retail spending still outpaces the rest of Canada, despite downturn, January 21, 2017. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-retail-sales-still-lead-country-november-2016-1.3946368

12 CBC News, Alberta retail sales rise for 5th straight month in December, February 22, 2017. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-retail-sales-increase-december-1.3993859


Source: Conference Board of Canada



Despite relatively modest rates of growth expected through 2021, expansion labour demand in Calgary’s retail trade sector should be positive (+4,184). Retail trade posts the highest turnover rates

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

$80,000

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21

Personal Income per Capita, Actual and Forecast, Quarterly, 2013 to 2021


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


4,184

19,855

16,322

7,717

Retail Trade - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



across all major sectors, and as such replacement demand should constitute the majority of hiring in the forecast (+19,855).

Relative to other sectors, Calgary’s retail trade sector is expected to require a large number of positions to be filled through 2021 - even with modest growth by industry standards. However, many jobs in this sector require relatively fewer skills and training, implying that the demand for labour can be more readily accommodated by the prevailing supply of workers. Of the net 24,039 positions demanded through 2021, a shortage of 7,717 (32%) is anticipated.



Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Industry Sector CompositionThe professional, scientific and technical services sector has been defined to include:✓ Professional, scientific and technical services (NAICS 54)



-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.7%0.9%1.2%1%

0.5%

2.3%2.9%2.9%

1.2%

-3.7%

PS&T Services - GDP Growth Forecast


70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

PS&T Services - Employment Forecast

OutlookAfter reaching a peak of nearly 97,000 in 2013, employment in Calgary’s professional, scientific and technical (PS&T) services industry fell to about 88,000 in 2015. Given that a significant portion of Calgary’s activity in this industry is built in to the energy sector through head office activity (with major sub-sectors including engineering, specialized design, consulting, legal, accounting and scientific research services), it is unsurprising that the outlook is generally correlated with that of oil and gas. In tandem with gradually strengthening oil prices, output and employment in this industry should recover following the contractions since 2013. While the sector is estimated to have managed a slight employment gain in 2016 and no further contractions are projected in Calgary, hiring in PS&T services is likely to remain subdued through 2021, with the heights of 2013 and 2014 unlikely to be reattained.



This sector, while dominated by the energy sector in the Calgary Region, also includes activity in various other sectors. It is expected that growth in non-energy sectors will support PS&T growth. For example the video games development sector, which employs workers in both the Information, culture and recreation industry (NAICS 51) as well as the PS&T sector, is poised to continue to grow in Alberta. While labour is cheaper overseas, the creative process requires value added skills from a number of occupations.

Employment Related To Video Games In Alberta (000s)





Similar to other sectors that have waned as a result of the downturn in oil prices, expansion labour demand in the professional, scientific and technical services industry is forecast to be relatively limited at just 3,653. This compares to an estimated replacement demand of 15,873 through 2021.

Given the wide array of high-skilled jobs that the professional, scientific and technical services industry employs, labour shortages are likely to occur even during periods of weak employment growth. It is projected that nearly half (47%) of the net labour demand through 2021 will be unmet by the existing supply of labour in Alberta, resulting in a skill shortage of about 9,224 positions.


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


3,653

15,873

10,302

9,224

PS&T Services - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



Education

Industry Sector CompositionThe education sector has been defined to include:✓ Educational services (NAICS 61)



0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0%1.0%1.1%1.1%

1.0%

2.2%

2.7%2.7%

1.7%

2.3%

Education - GDP Growth Forecast


30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Education - Employment Forecast

OutlookCalgary’s education sector is expected to continue to record steady employment gains through 2021. While the proportion of 0 to 18 year olds in the Calgary population has declined somewhat, from 24.3% in 2004 to 22.3% in 2016, this demographic segment is nonetheless projected to grow slightly through the forecast to 22.6% by 2021. As well, a growing public demand for advanced education should result in hiring continuing to increase at a moderate rate within Calgary’s post-secondary institutions.

In addition, there are over a dozen new schools that are projected to be completed in the Calgary Region in 2017. While there should be some reassignment of teaching and other staff from existing to



new schools, it can be expected there will be additional hiring associated with the new school openings.

Education is forecast to be among the most consistent major employment sectors in the Calgary Region between 2017 and 2021, with an average of nearly 600 new positions created annually.

Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Alberta Population Projections (2016-2041) Medium Scenario. Data for Calgary Census Division (CD 6)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual and Projected Population of 0 to 18 Years of Age, 2010 to 2021





Consistent but unremarkable growth in the education sector through 2021 is expected to contribute to expansion labour demand of 2,826. Additional labour demand due to turnover is forecast to amount to 2,229 positions.

As the demand for educational services grows, so does the need for more education professionals in the Calgary area. With a net 5,055 jobs through 2021, Calgary may encounter labour shortages in this sector of 1,100 (22%), as in-migration and new graduates are unlikely to be large enough in number to fill all vacancies.


0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000


2,826

2,229

3,955

1,100

Education - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



Health

Industry Sector CompositionThe health sector has been defined to include:✓ Health care and social assistance (NAICS 62)



0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.9%1.8%1.8%

1.7%1.7%

2.2%

2.8%2.8%

1.5%

2.3%

Health - GDP Growth Forecast


60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Health - Employment Forecast

OutlookThe health industry (includes health care services and social assistance and hospitals) in Calgary has recorded significant output and employment gains since 2011. Despite a generally diminished outlook across many industries in Alberta, the health industry is projected to post continued gains. Much of this relatively optimistic outlook is related to continued population growth in Calgary, along with a growing proportion of seniors (65+) in the population, who tend to utilize a greater amount of health services. While Calgary’s population growth rate is expected to slow relative to recent rates of growth over the next few years, the proportion of seniors (age 65+) in Calgary’s population is expected to increase from 10.7% in 2015 to 13.3% by 2021, representing an increase from about 165,000 to 226,000. Generally, a trend toward increased per capita health-related costs along with the number of visits per capita should result in significantly increased activity in this sector. This was reflected in a



recent update to the Alberta Budget, where health care expenditure was expected to be $284 million above the initial projection, due in part to growth in the number of physicians, which has been increasing at a rate faster than that of the population.13

Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Alberta Population Projections (2016-2041) Medium Scenario.

% Seniors (65+) % Seniors ForecastPop Growth Pop Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Population Growth Rate and % Senior Population, Actual and Forecast, 2011 to 2021


13 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, Alberta Finance, http://finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/quarterly/2016/2016-17-3rd-Quarter-Fiscal-Update.pdf




Growing demand for health care services in the Calgary area should result in steady employment gains in the health sector, with an estimated 8,578 in expansion labour demand between 2017 and 2021. A similar amount of hiring is expected to result from replacement demand over the same period (+8,846).

Steady growth in Calgary’s health sector is forecast to contribute to a growing deficiency in the available supply of health and medical professionals. With a net labour demand of 17,424 positions through 2021, it is estimated that just 8,890 (51%) will be accommodated by the local supply of labour. Skill shortages are estimated to result in a supply gap of about 8,534 positions.


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


8,578

8,846

8,890

8,534

Health - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



Public Administration

Industry Sector CompositionThe public administration sector has been defined to include:✓ Federal government public administration (NAICS 911)✓ Provincial and territorial public administration (NAICS 912)✓ Local, municipal and regional public administration (NAICS 913)


Federal government public administrationProvincial and territorial public administrationLocal, municipal and regional public administration

59%16%

25%


0%

0.5%

1%

1.5%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.8%0.7%0.7%

0.5%0.4%

0.8%

1.3%

0.3%

0.5%0.5%

Public Administration - GDP Growth Forecast


20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Public Administration - Employment Forecast



OutlookGrowth in Calgary’s public administration sector (includes municipal, provincial and territorial, and federal government services) is tied to the demand for public services. This demand is largely linked to growth. Growth projections for the Calgary Region are showing positive, but lower rates of growth than experienced between 2012 and 2015. Net migration to Calgary has slowed since 2013, turning negative in 2016 (-1,500) for the first time in over a decade. This is a result of significant negative outflows of intercity (-3,847) and interprovincial (-3,149) migration from the region. Even net international migration into Calgary declined substantially to 5,484 - it’s lowest level since 2000.

While population growth is expected to remain positive (due primarily to natural increase and international migration), budgetary limitations and slower population/migration into Calgary are likely to result in only modest increases in public sector employment.

Source: Conference Board of Canada

Intercity InterprovincialInternational

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual and Forecasted Sources of Migration, Calgary, 2010 to 2021




Recruitment Gap = 325

Following a slight decline in Calgary-area public sector employment in 2016, the sector should grow in 2017 and beyond at a moderate rate. Expansion labour demand in this sector over the forecast period is estimated at 522. While voluntary turnover rates in the public administration sector are relatively low compared to other industries, involuntary turnover - notably retirements due to an aging labour force - is forecast to contribute to replacement demand of 1,702.

The available supply of labour in Alberta is projected to meet about 83% of Calgary’s public administration sector’s hiring requirements over the next five years. With a total labour demand of 2,224 workers, shortages are estimated to result in a supply gap of about 325.


0

1,000

2,000

3,000


522

1,702

1,899

325

Public Administration - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



Energy-Related Manufacturing

Industry Sector CompositionThe energy-related manufacturing sector has been defined to include:✓ Petroleum and coal product manufacturing (NAICS 324)✓ Chemical manufacturing (NAICS 325)✓ Plastics and rubber products manufacturing (NAICS 326)✓ Primary metal manufacturing (NAICS 331)✓ Fabricated metal product manufacturing (NAICS 332)✓ Machinery manufacturing (NAICS 333)

Petroleum and coal product manufacturingChemical manufacturingPlastics and rubber products manufacturingPrimary metal manufacturingFabricated metal product manufacturingMachinery manufacturing

32%

34%

5%9%

11%9%





-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.8%0.9%1%1.2%1.4%1.8%

2.2%1.8%

-0.9%

-2.9%

GDP Growth Forecast

History Winter Forecast

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Forecast

NOTE to Reader: The composition of this industry has been modified since the Summer 2016 Calgary and Area Employment Forecast. As a result, the previous growth projections are not directly comparable to those for this forecast.

OutlookCalgary’s energy-related manufacturing industry represents approximately 45% of total manufacturing employment in the city. Despite a relatively weak Canadian dollar providing a competitive boost to exporters (expected to remain below US$0.80 through 2017), Calgary’s energy-related manufacturing industry recorded only minimal employment growth in 2016, following a contraction of about 1,500 positions in 2015. However, the gradual recovery in oil prices (as well as the energy sector, upon which these manufacturing sub-sectors are reliant) provides a somewhat brighter outlook in 2017 and beyond. This burgeoning recovery was evident in December of 2016, with Alberta’s petroleum and coal product manufacturers posting a 33.4% year-over-year increase in sales following consecutive declines throughout much of the year. With the boost to sales late in 2016, petroleum and coal products retained its position as the largest manufacturing sub-sector in the province (measured by output).14 Nevertheless, the value of Alberta’s exports to its major trading partners such as the U.S.


14 ATB, Manufacturing set to take-off this year, February 15, 2017. http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/Pages/the-owl.aspx?aid=688


Energy-Related Manufacturing

(-18%) and China (-11%) suffered in 2016 due to persistently low oil prices. The potential for the renegotiation of NAFTA, along with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement set in motion by the Trump administration serves to exacerbate Alberta’s recent trade woes with the United States. Conversely, Alberta’s trade with Japan grew by 4.4% in 2016.15 However, Alberta’s exports to Japan consist mostly of agricultural and other primary products, rather than petroleum-related products. As oil prices continue their gradual rise through the duration of the forecast, the outlook for energy-related manufacturing should brighten, though the targeting and development of new, strategic trade partners could reinforce projected gains.

Source: Alberta Government, Economic Dashboard

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Jan 10 Oct 10 Jul 11 Apr 12 Jan 13 Oct 13 Jul 14 Apr 15 Jan 16 Oct 16

Alberta Manufacturing Sales ($million)


15 ATB, Look to the Land of the Rising Sun for increased trade?, February 3, 2017. http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/Pages/the-owl.aspx?aid=680




Slow employment growth through the forecast is likely to limit expansion labour demand in the energy-related manufacturing sector (952) through 2021. The majority of new hiring in this sector is expected to result from replacement demand of 2,430.

Following a severe employment decline in 2016, a gradual recovery of Calgary’s energy-related manufacturing sector through 2021 will still not account for all of the positions lost in 2016. Of the 3,382 vacancies, it is estimated that employers will experience difficulty in filling 42% of these. The resulting worker shortages are estimated at about 1,415 positions.


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


952

2,430

1,967

1,415

Energy-Related Manufacturing - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21



Trucking and Warehousing

Industry Sector CompositionThe trucking and warehousing sector has been defined to include:✓ Truck transportation (NAICS 484)✓ Warehousing and storage (NAICS 493)


Truck transportation Warehousing and storage

31%

69%


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

-0%

2%

4%

6%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.4%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%

2.2%2.3%

3.8%

-0.5%

-5.9%

GDP Growth Forecast


10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Forecast



Trucking and Warehousing

OutlookGiven its strong reliance on the faltering oil and gas industry, it was not surprising that Calgary’s trucking and warehousing sector posted a substantial estimated decline of about 1,300 jobs in 2016. An improving overall economic climate in the Calgary Region (and Alberta as a whole) and the gradual recovery of the energy sector should help the trucking and warehousing industry to post positive gains through the duration of the forecast.

Calgary’s trucking and warehousing industry is projected to perform slightly below that of the provincial average in the short-term, with rates of output and employment growth picking up beyond 2018 as overall economic conditions in the city are revitalized and existing excess capacity is utilized.

The implementation of the provincial carbon tax is likely to hit the trucking industry harder than other sectors, with the addition of 5.35 cents and 4.49 cents to the price of a litre of diesel and gasoline respectively (with rates scheduled to increase in 2018). Representatives of Alberta’s trucking industry had hoped to establish savings mechanisms on the tax for businesses employing energy-reducing technology such as single wide-base tires, boat tails, side skirts and electronic devices.16

The provincial government estimates that the carbon tax will generate $9.6 billion in revenue, with $6.2 billion designated to diversify Alberta’s energy industry and the remainder given back to households, businesses and communities by way of rebates and tax cuts.


16 Derek Clouthier, Truck News, Alberta’s new carbon tax, January 30, 2017. http://www.trucknews.com/features/albertas-new-carbon-tax/




Trucking and warehousing is another of Calgary’s oil-related sectors that posted a significant employment contraction in 2016. With the worst of the oil-related downturn in the past, labour demand growth should pick up to 1,514 through the forecast period. Of this growth, about half of the new jobs are projected to be a result of industry expansion (+804).

Employment in Calgary’s trucking and warehousing sector through 2021 is projected to increase at a significantly slower rate relative to the 2011 to 2015 period. The local supply of labour should be capable of filling about 63% of the vacancies, with a remaining recruitment gap of 557 workers. However, some studies have suggested that the trucking workforce is at the edge of a “demographic cliff”, with the average age of drivers much higher than that of other professions, contributing to a rising retirement rate in the industry.17 Given the limited supply of labour available for such positions, faster-than-expected growth in the trucking and warehousing industry could generate a substantial recruitment gap.


0

1,000

2,000


804

710

557

957

Trucking and Warehousing - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


17 Truck Driver Shortage Accelerating According to New CTA Study, Alberta Motor Transport Association, June 2016.


Accommodation and Food Services

Industry Sector CompositionThe accommodation and food services sector has been defined to include:✓ Accommodation and food services (NAICS 72)



-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0%0.8%

0.6%0.5%0.4%

2.1%

2.6%2.6%

-0.2%-0.5%

GDP Growth Forecast


40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Forecast

OutlookCalgary’s accommodation industry has been negatively impacted by the provincial decline in energy-related spending and regional travel. Prior to the drop in oil prices, very strong growth in the demand for accommodations had spurred a surge in hotel development activity. While the tourism-driven locations of Banff and Jasper have continued to enjoy very high levels of demand, the room occupancy rate in Alberta’s four largest cities (Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer and Lethbridge) averaged 38.6% in June of 2016 - about half of the minimum level considered to be healthy by the industry. For



Accomm. and Food Services

comparison, this rate was 65.1% in June of 2014 at the onset of the economic downturn.18 Affecting the outlook is the imminent addition of another 2,100 hotel rooms in Calgary and Edmonton, representing a supply increase of 16%.

A Comparison of Overall Calgary Hotel Performance, 2015 and 2016

YearOccupancy

RateAverage

Room Rate

Room Supply (% Change)

Room Demand

(% Change)

2016 40.2% $126.83 +5.3% -1.4%

2015 42.9% $136.38 +6.0% -3.1%

Source: HVS Canada, Canadian Lodging Outlook Quarterly 2016-Q4

Despite the economic downturn, Alberta’s food and beverage sector has remained relatively buoyant. While sales receipts in 2016 where lower than the boom year of 2014, they have improved marginally compared to 2015. With a return to positive economic growth in Alberta and the Calgary Region, it can be expected that the food services sector will return to positive growth.

Restaurant And Bar Receipts - Alberta (million $)

Potentially dampening the employment outlook in this sector is Alberta’s rising minimum wage, which was increased to $12.20 per hour in October of 2016, and is scheduled to increase to $13.60 and


18 Justin Giovannetti, Globe and Mail, Other than the Rockies, Alberta’s hotels lie empty due to the oil crash, August 19, 2016. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/other-than-the-rockies-albertas-hotels-lie-empty-due-to-the-oil-crash/article31478415/


$15.00 in 2017 and 2018 respectively. With approximately two-thirds of those employed in Alberta’s accommodation and food services industry currently earning $15 per hour or less,19 labour costs to employers should increase at a greater proportion compared to other sectors - particularly in this labour-intensive industry. Nevertheless, the employment outlook in this sector calls for positive, albeit relatively modest growth, with Calgary receiving a greater share of hiring as its energy firms gradually increase demand levels within the city.



Consistent projected accommodation and food services growth in 2017 and beyond is forecast to drive an expansion labour demand of 2,514 in the sector. However, even with relatively strong expansion demand, the majority of vacancies arising through 2021 will be due to replacement (+8,212) as the accommodation and food services sector posts a relatively high rate of voluntary turnover.

Calgary’s accommodation and food services sector faces a significant hiring requirement of 10,726 between 2017 and 2021. While the majority of this demand is forecast to be readily available within Alberta’s supply of labour (86%), a gap of 1,483 is still expected. Labour shortages in


0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000


2,514

8,212

9,243

1,483

Accommodation and Food Services - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


19 Rachelle Younglai and Kelly Cryderman, Globe and Mail, Small-business owners in Alberta brace for minimum-wage hike, October 1, 2016. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-managing/small-business-owners-in-alberta-brace-for-minimum-wage-hike/article32174789/


accommodation are likely to be geography-specific, as even in mid-2016, Banff-area hotels required workers to be transported in from Calgary due to weekend labour shortages.20


20 Daniel Katz, Desperate Banff hotels transport housekeepers from Calgary on weekends to fill labour gaps, Crag and Canyon, August 10, 2016.


Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE)

Industry Sector CompositionThe finance, insurance and real estate sector has been defined to include:✓ Monetary authorities - central bank (NAICS 521)✓ Credit intermediation and related activities (NAICS 522)✓ Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investment and related activities (NAICS 523)✓ Insurance carriers and related activities (NAICS 524)✓ Funds and other financial vehicles (NAICS 526)✓ Real estate (NAICS 531)✓ Rental and leasing services (NAICS 532)✓ Lessors of non-financial intangible assets (except copyrighted workers) (NAICS 533)✓ Management of companies and enterprises (NAICS 55)

Monetary authorities and credit intermediationInsurance carriers and related activitiesReal estateRental and leasing services and lessors of non-financial intangible assetsOther finance, insurance and real estate activities and management of companies and enterprises

16%

6%

28% 18%

31%





-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0%0.8%

0.6%0.5%0.4%

1.7%1.9%

2.2%

-1.9%

2.2%

FIRE - GDP Growth Forecast


30,000

34,000

38,000

42,000

46,000

50,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

FIRE - Employment Forecast

OutlookThe finance, insurance and real estate industry is Calgary’s largest major services sector. Following a slight drop in output and employment in 2015, the sector was largely stagnant in hiring activity during 2016 with about 100 jobs added. Continued weak, but positive, employment growth within the sector is projected through the duration of the forecast.

Calgary’s real estate sector has suffered as a result of the downturn. This was evident in December of 2016, when there were an estimated 535 unsold, vacant new homes in Calgary - the highest total since 2012.21 While buyers may be inclined to take advantage of the surplus supply, the city’s high unemployment rate, low earnings growth, and net out-migration may result in unabsorbed housing creeping higher.


21 ATB, Number of new, but vacant homes on the rise in Calgary, January 30, 2017. http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/Pages/the-owl.aspx?aid=676


In the commercial and industrial sub-sectors of real estate, Calgary has the potential to take advantage of a possible national plan involving the legalization of marijuana. Since 2014 when marijuana was legalized in Colorado, producers have accounted for 35.8% of all space leased, and now hold close to four million square feet of real estate. The industry is credited with driving Denver’s industrial vacancy rate from 6% in 2009 to 0.3% in 2015. Alberta appears ready to take advantage of the potential growth industry, as the world’s largest marijuana production facility is set to be developed in Leduc.22 A U.S. study estimated that employment related to legalized marijuana could overtake manufacturing in terms of job creation by 2020.23

The employment outlook in Calgary’s FIRE sector calls for positive, but minimal growth of about 0.2% in 2017 and 2018. In tandem with strengthening economic conditions, the rate of hiring should increase in the longer-term, but is unlikely to exceed growth of 1% on an annual basis.



While the high rate of expansion labour demand growth observed between 2011 and 2014 (+7,300) in Calgary’s finance, insurance and real estate sector is unlikely to be repeated over the next few years,


0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000


770

4,113

4,008

875

FIRE - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


22 O’Brien, Frank, World’s biggest marijuana production plant will sprout in Leduc, Alberta, Western Investor. http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/alberta/world-s-biggest-marijuana-production-plant-will-sprout-in-leduc-alberta-1.8197458

23 Robinson, Melia, Legal marijuana could overtake manufacturing in job creation by 2020, Business Insider. http://www.businessinsider.com/legal-marijuana-job-creation-projections-2017-3


industry growth should contribute to a net of 770 new positions between 2017 and 2021. Over the same period, this industry will be required to fill another 4,113 positions due to turnover.

Of the estimated 4,883 positions to be filled through the forecast period, Calgary’s finance, insurance and real estate sector is forecast to encounter a shortfall of just 875 workers (18%).



Occupation Forecast

Employment By Industry

Industry Sector Outlook SummaryThe figure below summarizes total employment projections by key industry sectors for the Calgary Region in 2017 and 2018.

2017 2018

Oil and Gas

Construction

Retail Trade

Professional Scientific and Tech Services

Education

Health


Energy Related Manufacturing

Trucking & Warehousing

Accommodation & Food Services

FIRE

Other

Total

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

1.0%

1.2%

0.2%

0.8%

1.0%

1.3%

0.4%

1.6%

1.2%

0.9%

1.0%

-0.6%

1.3%

1.1%

1.4%

0.2%

0.7%

0.6%

1.5%

0.3%

1.6%

1.1%

0.5%

0.6%

-2.0%

1.1%

Calgary Region Employment Growth by Industry


OCCUPATION FORECASTWinter 2016 Employment Forecasts by Occupation

48

Total employment is projected to increase by approximately 8,800 jobs in the Calgary Region this year (2017), with the largest percentage growth expected in sectors such as Health Services and Energy-Related Manufacturing. The only major sector projected to decline is Construction, where a decline of 2.0% is expected to eliminate another 1,500 positions in 2017.

On the positive side, there is expected to be increases in jobs related to the Health industry. This sector is projected to experience an annual increase in employment of 1.6% in both 2017 and 2018, translating to about 1,700 jobs each year.

Oil and Gas is also expected to rebound over the next two years with the addition of 600 to 800 positions each year - but this is insufficient growth to make up for the significant job losses sustained in the industry during 2015 and 2016. The employment heights observed between 2012 and 2014 are unlikely to be met within the duration of this forecast.

The Education sector is also projected to see continued employment growth of 600 to 700 positions each year in 2017 and 2018, buoyed by the Calgary Region’s young population demographics.


49 OCCUPATION FORECAST

2017 2018

Oil and Gas

Construction

Retail Trade

Professional Scientific and Tech Services

Education

Health


Energy Related Manufacturing

Trucking & Warehousing

Accommodation & Food Services

FIRE

Other

Total

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

8,187

2,355

104

552

162

346

84

1,705

685

905

943

-439

784

8,908

5,130

88

493

97

380

70

1,680

630

545

603

-1,493

684

Calgary Region Employment Growth by Industry



Employment Growth by Occupation Total employment in the Calgary Region is projected to increase by 1.1% in 2017 and by 1.0% in 2018. Total job growth should total about 8,800 this year (2017), with slightly fewer jobs created in 2018 at around 8,200. Due to a significant employment contraction of about 2.0% in 2016, it likely won’t be until 2018 until the total workforce demand in the Calgary Region reaches its 2015 level.

In 2017 and 2018, all major occupation groups are projected to grow.

Employment Growth by Occupation Group - Calgary Region 2017/2018

ChangeChange % Change% Change

Occupation (1-digit NOC) 2016e 2017f 2018f 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18

0 Management occupations 94,083 94,963 95,797 880 834 0.9% 0.9%

1 Business, finance and administration occupations 149,604 151,456 152,986 1,852 1,530 1.2% 1.0%

2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 91,988 92,967 93,930 979 963 1.1% 1.0%

3 Health occupations 57,587 58,468 59,372 881 904 1.5% 1.5%

4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 79,094 80,102 81,117 1,008 1,015 1.3% 1.3%

5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 18,646 19,094 19,439 448 345 2.4% 1.8%

6 Sales and service occupations 175,598 177,410 179,231 1,812 1,821 1.0% 1.0%

7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 114,824 115,285 115,737 461 452 0.4% 0.4%

8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 10,081 10,199 10,312 118 113 1.2% 1.1%

9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 16,912 17,255 17,471 343 216 2.0% 1.3%

Total - All Occupations 808,417 817,199 825,392 8,782 8,193 1.1% 1.0%

Legend: e = estimatee = estimate f = forecastf = forecast

In absolute terms, (1) Business, finance and administration occupations is expected to post the greatest number of new positions in 2017 at 1,852. Another occupation category projected to show significant growth is (6) Sales and service occupations, with 1,812 new jobs in 2017 and 1,821 in 2018.

While all major occupation groups show positive growth, percentage growth is significantly lower in the (7) Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations category in both 2017 and 2018 (+0.4%), largely due to layoffs projected over the next two years in the construction industry.



Fastest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2017The occupations projected to experience the most growth (absolute numbers) in 2017 are summarized in the table below. As expected, occupations in health care and education occupations dominate the top jobs for both 2016 and 2017.

Fastest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2016/2017

Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017 ChangeChange % Change% Change


3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 17,247 17,520 17,798 273 278 1.6% 1.6%

6421 Retail salespersons 31,192 31,424 31,742 232 318 0.7% 1.0%

7512 Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators 3,998 4,191 4,231 193 40 4.8% 1.0%

7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs2,794 2,956 2,987 162 31 5.8% 1.0%

1111 Financial auditors and accountants 17,076 17,226 17,395 150 169 0.9% 1.0%

6711 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 14,675 14,812 14,955 137 143 0.9% 1.0%

4214 Early childhood educators and assistants 7,844 7,974 8,103 130 129 1.7% 1.6%

1241 Administrative assistants12,393 12,521 12,654 128 133 1.0% 1.1%

1221 Administrative officers 12,401 12,523 12,648 122 125 1.0% 1.0%

6552 Other customer and information services representatives 7,032 7,152 7,240 120 88 1.7% 1.2%

Legend e = estimatee = estimate f = forecastf = forecast

While some occupations exist primarily within a single industry, in some instances, occupation demand is affected by changes in demand across several industries.

‣ Rising demand for nurses (NOC 3012) is projected due to demand increases in the Hospitals (NAICS 622) and Health Care Services (NAICS 621, 623, 624) industries.

‣ Higher demand for retail salespersons is due to consistent growth in the Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) industry.

‣ The education occupations increases are due to growth in Education Services (NAICS 61).

‣ Higher demand for transportation-related occupations (NOC 7512, 7513) are due to growth in (non-trucking) transportation sectors, such as Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (NAICS 485) and Support Activities for Transportation (NAICS 488).



‣ The finance/insurance occupations have seen an increase in demand for workers largely due to changes to the Insurance Carriers and Related Activities (NAICS 524) and Real Estate (NAICS 531) sectors.

Projections for all occupations can be found in Appendix B.24


24 To search for a specific occupation, type the occupation title or 4-digit NOC code to search the PDF.


Occupations With Declining Demand - Calgary Region 2017The occupations that are projected to experience the largest decline (absolute numbers) in 2017 are summarized in the table below. Note that all of the occupations listed are directly related to the construction sector, which is expected to face another sharp employment contraction in 2017.

Fastest Declining Occupations - Calgary Region 2016/2017

Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017 ChangeChange % Change% Change


7271 Carpenters 7,370 7,246 7,214 -124 -32 -1.7% -0.4%

7241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) 6,719 6,603 6,573 -116 -30 -1.7% -0.5%

7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers 6,612 6,518 6,497 -94 -21 -1.4% -0.3%

0711 Construction managers 5,329 5,250 5,234 -79 -16 -1.5% -0.3%

7251 Plumbers 3,424 3,358 3,340 -66 -18 -1.9% -0.5%

7284 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers 2,931 2,872 2,855 -59 -17 -2.0% -0.6%

7294 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 2,372 2,327 2,315 -45 -12 -1.9% -0.5%

0712 Home building and renovation managers 2,270 2,226 2,213 -44 -13 -1.9% -0.6%

7205 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers 1,881 1,844 1,834 -37 -10 -2.0% -0.5%

7291 Roofers and shinglers 1,684 1,650 1,640 -34 -10 -2.0% -0.6%

Legend e = estimatee = estimate f = forecastf = forecast

Projections for all occupations can be found in Appendix B.25


25 To search for a specific occupation, type the name (or occupation) or 4-digit NOC to search the PDF.


Appendix A: Forecast Methodology

Labour Market Demand and Supply Model (LMDSM)The model consists of an Occupational Demand module, an Occupational Supply module (which consists of a Population Forecast and Labour Supply module) and a Job Matching module. As in most occupational forecasting estimations, the model focuses on exploring the functioning and dynamics of labour markets under various economic scenarios.

Employers estimate the number of workers required for each occupation by considering the structure, cost, and productivity of their workforce, as well as current and anticipated levels of production. This decision-making process on the part of the employer is defined as “occupational demand for labour”. In the model, occupational demand includes the number of workers currently employed, as well as any additional vacancies that are created as a result of industry growth and attrition.

The number of individuals employed or actively seeking employment is the “occupational supply of labour”. Occupational supply is determined by the size and growth rate of the population, the share of the population willing to participate in the labour force, and the skills and training of these workforce participants. Other socio-economic factors that shape the supply of labour include the age distribution of the population; the retirement, migration and education choices of the labour force; and the prevailing economic climate.

Occupational forecasting has become a key instrument in predicting labour market imbalances. At the base of this model is the Manpower Requirements Approach (MRA), which first gained widespread recognition in the 1960s when employed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for educational planning purposes. This approach requires the estimation of two typically independently forecasted components: occupational demand and occupational supply. The occupational demand and supply forecasts are compared and if supply does not match demand, labour market imbalances are forecasted. These types of models rely on a number of economic assumptions, among them the premise that different occupations are non-substitutable. The supply of workers associated with one occupation has no immediate effect on the supply in another occupation, even if the occupations require similar sets of skills. Hence, the elasticity of substitution is assumed to be zero.

In reality, workers from different occupations may be fully or partially substitutable, provided that they possess sufficiently similar skill sets. Hence, the elasticity of substitution for occupations could vary between zero and one depending on the similarity of skill requirements. Taking a more realistic approach to analyze the functioning of a labour market, the model aims to consider inter-occupational mobility by developing a job matching mechanism, which carefully considers the factors that influence worker and employer decisions.

The job matching module employed in the model is broadly based on the “search and matching theory” influenced by the Nobel Prize winning work of Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and


APPENDIX AForecast Methodology

55

Christopher Pissarides. These researchers analyzed markets with search frictions and have been credited with the development of modern search and matching theory of unemployment.

In the model, a job seeker searches for suitable employment considering factors important to the individual such as job suitability, remuneration, the relative tightness of the labour market, as well as the manner of job separation from previous employment (seeking a higher wage/benefits, layoff, fired, etc.).

Simultaneously, an employer searches through potential candidates possessing certain attributes and compares them across a variety of criteria that reflect the skills required for the vacancy. Employers may also consider the relative tightness of the labour market and factors such as the fit of the candidate to the work environment and the manner of the candidate’s separation from prior employment. Hence, the job matching mechanism can be broadly described as a comparison of the attractiveness of the job opportunity (from the point of view of the job seeker) and the attractiveness of the worker (from the point of view of the employer) with consideration given to general labour market conditions.

“At each stage of the process a job seeker is paired with a position. The job seeker decides whether to apply for the position on the basis of its attractiveness. The employer then decides whether to call the applicant to interview on the basis of the application (his attractiveness). A job matching occurs after the interview only by mutual consent. These final decisions are based on both the attractiveness and character of the prospective partners. At equilibrium each individual uses a strategy appropriate to their type.”26

Model DescriptionThe model is comprised of three major modules. These include an estimation of labour demand, an estimation of labour supply (as related to population forecasts), and a job matching module that determines the suitability of matching across occupations.Occupational Demand Module:2015 Base Labour Demand (by NOC & NAICS): Base (2015) labour demand is estimated according to 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes and 3-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The model assumes that the labour market in the base year is in equilibrium. That is, the model does not estimate any labour demand shortages that may exist or have accumulated in the year(s) prior to the base.

Industry-Specific Output Growth Forecasts & Macroeconomic Reference Scenario: Additional labour demand resulting from expansionary economic activity is estimated according to exogenous provincial and industry-specific growth forecasts, as well as productivity considerations and the structure of each industry’s labour force in the base year. This base set of industry and provincial growth forecasts is the “Macroeconomic Reference Scenario”. Scenario- and occupation-specific rates of labour productivity growth are also applied.


26 David M. Ramsey and Stephen Kinsella, A Labour Market Model With Multiple Criteria, February 19, 2009.

56 APPENDIX A

Inter-Industry Trade Flows: Trade flows are incorporated into the model based on industry purchasing trends, using inter- and intra-provincial input-output tables drawn from Statistics Canada’s System of National Accounts. These tables are used to determine the industry-specific economic impacts resulting from higher (or lower) than anticipated growth in any industry, or from higher (or lower) than anticipated growth in any other province.

Replacement Demand due to Attrition: Along with expansionary labour demand generated according to industry- and province-specific growth forecasts, annual replacement demand is estimated according to attrition. The types of attrition considered in the model include retirement, mortality, emigration, and other voluntary and involuntary job separations. Reasons for job separation considered in the model include career advancement, pay/benefits, layoffs, firings, and a general “other” category.

Projected Labour Demand: Total labour demand in each period is estimated by taking demand in the prior period, adding expansionary and replacement labour demand, and subtracting any layoffs induced by forecasted output contractions.

Total Job Vacancies: The sum of expansionary and replacement labour demand growth in each period, adjusted according to structural and productivity considerations, provides the net number of employment vacancies according to 4-digit NOC and 3-digit NAICS. These annual net vacancy estimates form the basis of forecasted labour demand to which labour supply is compared and assigned.Labour Supply and Population Components:The Population and Employment Projection Model uses an employment based methodology to project population. The model is driven by employment growth in key driver industries. In addition, commercial and non-commercial employment that is generated as a result of population growth is incorporated in the model.

Population projections are based on the net migration of workers and additional family members into the region required to meet the expected employment growth. The model also incorporates the aging of the permanent population, based on the Standard Component Method, which projects the individual components of the population rather than the population as a whole. By incorporating the Standard Component Method into the model, an estimate of age and gender can be provided for each forecast year, which are internally consistent with the total population and employment projections. Using employment to drive the net-migration component model helps to ensure the forecast is using consistent assumptions about provincial and economic growth.

2015 Base and Forecasted Population by Sub-Groups: Historical, base and forecasted population is estimated according to dimensions including geography, age, and gender.

2015 Base Labour Force: The model assumes that base (2015) labour supply in each province is comprised of the employed (base labour demand by 4-digit NOC and 3-digit NAICS) along with the existing pool of unemployed.

Migration-Based Labour Force Growth: Through the forecast period, the supply of labour is impacted by economic scenario-specific rates of international and inter-provincial migration, along with the


57 APPENDIX A

participation rates and occupational skills/education traits assigned to these sub-populations. A population-forecasting module is applied to estimate the impact of scenario-specific changes in demographics on the labour force.

“Natural” Labour Force Growth (School Leavers & New Entrants): Similar to the above, the population-forecasting module is applied to estimate the demographic and associated labour force impact of new graduates and re-entrants into the pool of available job candidates.

Distribution of Skill/Education Profiles to the Existing Labour Force: Worker-specific skills and educational attainment are assigned to members of the labour force based on the “Essential Skills Profiles” developed by Employment and Social Development Canada. As the model applies equilibrium conditions in the base year, workers are assumed to be perfectly matched with their respective occupations and are assigned skill profiles accordingly. In cases where the most recent occupation of a worker is generally unknown (i.e. the existing pool of unemployed, new migrants, etc.), data is drawn from a variety of studies and sources to estimate the most likely skill and educational traits possessed.

Distribution of Skill/Education Profiles to New Entrants: Skill and educational traits are assigned to school leavers based on program enrolment rates in accordance with the Classification for Instructional Programs (CIP) system. Education traits are applied based on the major field of study as well as the level of education (less than high school, secondary, college, university, post-secondary aggregation). NOC-specific traits are applied for post-secondary enrolment in the case of trades occupations.

Total Unattached Workers in the Labour Force: The pool of unattached workers in each period is comprised of the unemployed, new international and interprovincial migrants, school leavers, and any worker estimated to have separated from their prior employment through the year.Job Matching Module:The purpose of this module is to address the concept of multi-occupational mobility in a realistic labour market setting. In some cases, occupational matching is a relatively straightforward exercise. Consider the example of recent graduates from a dental school, where realistic occupational mobility is generally limited to one specific occupation (NOC 3113 - Dentists). In this example, labour market imbalances may be forecasted based on a comparison of the projected number of additional dentists needed and the net projected number of dentists graduating or arriving in the province. Alternatively, consider the example of recent graduates from a business school, for whom there is no single (4-digit NOC) occupation that the supply of graduates would reasonably be expected to uniformly enter. There may be a multitude of employment options available to this sub-population, depending on forecasted economic conditions. The job matching module assigns a set of mobility probabilities for each origin occupation in accordance with worker type and overall forecasted economic conditions.

Occupational mobility is driven by the number of net vacancies (by 4-digit NOC and 3-digit NAICS) estimated in the labour demand component along with the pool of unattached workers for whom specific occupational skill profiles have been assigned in the labour supply and population components. The matching module estimates the suitability of a job candidate across all positions in the 4-digit NOC system.


58 APPENDIX A

The job candidate who has separated from prior employment seeks a position based on a number of criteria including skill type and level, educational attainment as well as the manner of their job separation (e.g. voluntary separation, firing, layoff, etc.) - a factor that influences the worker’s wage expectations. In a similar fashion, employers seek to fill vacancies by selecting the most suitable candidate. Employers assess a candidate’s skills and educational compatibility with the vacancy, as well as the applicant’s reason for prior job separation.

Forecasted Aggregate Unemployment Rate: The overall state of the economy is also a consideration when employers and job seekers interact. A worker is deemed suitable to fill a vacant position if a certain threshold of job matching is achieved in the model. This threshold varies according to projected economic conditions, with tighter labour market conditions generally allowing workers a greater degree of choice in occupation and a reduced inclination to accept low-skill or low-wage employment, and vice versa. The tightness of the labour market is primarily reflected by the unemployment rate.

To allow for a greater degree of realism in labour market interactions, employers rank candidates based on the nature of their separation from prior employment. For example, if two candidates possess identical skill and education attributes but differing manners of job separation – the first was fired and the second left to pursue career advancement – the model assumes that the employer prefers to hire the latter candidate due to the stigma typically attached to fired workers. Similar is the logic applied to new entrants to the labour market applying for vacancies. Although new entrants may possess the required skills and education to fill a vacancy, an employer typically prefers to hire an identical candidate with strong motivation (i.e. separated from previous job to pursue career advancement) or prior work experience. Provided that an employer’s top-choice candidates are insufficient to fill all vacancies, employers continue to hire workers until the vacancies are filled or the supply of suitable candidates is depleted.

Workers form wage expectations for prospective occupations based on the wage they received in a previous occupation, the manner of their job separation and the relative tightness of the labour market (as indicated by the unemployment rate).

The matching mechanism uses Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) Essential Skills Profiles to gauge the suitability of cross-occupational mobility, which are available at the 4-digit NOC level.

“Essential Skills are not the technical skills required by particular occupations but rather the skills applied in all occupations. For example, writing skills are required in a broad range of occupations. The complexity and frequency of writing varies, of course. Some workers fill out simple forms every day, while others write daily or monthly reports. Essential Skills enable people to do their work. For example, repair persons may have to read and understand written work orders before they can do the repairs.”27


27 Employment and Social Development Canada, Readers’ Guide to Essential Skills Profiles, November 2007, http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/les/profiles/readersguide.shtml

59 APPENDIX A

http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/les/profiles/readersguide.shtml




According to HRSDC, there are nine primary, essential skills which vary in usage and complexity depending on the occupation. In addition, each occupation is assigned most important essential skills (MIES) and a corresponding minimum and maximum required education level ranging from “no formal education or training” to “post graduate or professional degree”.HRSDC Essential Skills:Reading Text, Document Use, Writing, Numeracy, Oral Communication, Thinking Skills, Problem Solving, Decision Making, Critical Thinking, Job Task Planning and Organizing, Significant Use of Memory, Finding Information, Working with Others, Computer Use, and Continuous Learning.

End-of-Period Unfilled Positions (Shortages) & Type of Shortage: At the end of each period of the forecast, the magnitude and type of any estimated labour shortage is assessed. The first type of labour shortage is induced by skill limitations in the supply of labour. In this case, employers were unable to fill all vacancies due to a lack of suitably skilled workers in the available supply of labour. The second type of labour shortage is induced by a lack of matching efficiency in the labour market. In this case, the existing pool of unattached labour was sufficient in size and ability to fill all vacancies, but matching did not occur. Potential causes of this type of shortage may include an insufficiently high wage as to attract the worker, or the worker not perfectly realizing their candidacy for the position. Labour shortages carry over to the next period of the forecast, at which time employers again attempt to fill their vacancies.

Unmatched Labour Force (Unemployed) & Traits of the Unemployed: By analyzing the outputs of the matching mechanism at the end of each period, a detailed understanding of the types of workers in excess supply, along with the skill characteristics of those more likely to remain unemployed can be examined. These are the members of the labour force who were not successfully matched with a job vacancy, and they remain in the pool of unemployed until the next period, adjusting their employment expectations accordingly.


60 APPENDIX A

Labour Demand Model

Labour Supply Model

2015 Base Labour Demand (by NOC & NAICS)

Industry-Specific Output Growth Forecasts

Macroeconomic Reference Scenario & Assumptions

Inter-Industry Trade Flows (Input-Output Tables) &

Productivity Assumptions

Forecasted Aggregate Labour Demand

Total Job Vacancies

Forecasted Unemployment Rate

End-of-Period Unfilled Vacancies (Shortages)

2015 Base Labour Force (by NOC & NAICS)

Forecasted Labour Force Growth (International &

Interprovincial Migration)

"Natural" Labour Force Growth (School Leavers &

New Entrants)

Distribution of Skill/Education Profiles to Labour Force

Population Model

Total Unattached Workers

Replacement Demand due to Attrition

Job Matching Mechanism

Unmatched Labour Force (Unemployed)

Next Period


61 APPENDIX A

Appendix B: Detailed Occupation Demand Forecasts

e = estimate / f = forecaste = estimate / f = forecaste = estimate / f = forecaste = estimate / f = forecast ChangeChange % Change% Change

Occupation (NOC) 2016e 2017f 2018f 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18

Total - All Occupations 809,814 818,627 826,833 8,813 8,206 1.1% 1.0%

0 Management occupations 94,083 94,963 95,797 880 834 0.9% 0.9%

00 Senior management occupations 10,485 10,587 10,688 102 101 1.0% 1.0%

001 Legislators and senior management 10,492 10,592 10,693 100 101 1.0% 1.0%

0011 Legislators 63 63 63 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

0012 Senior government managers and officials 234 234 235 0 1 0.0% 0.4%

0013 Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services 3,374 3,392 3,418 18 26 0.5% 0.8%

0014 Senior managers - health, education, social and community services and membership organizations 971 993 1,012 22 19 2.3% 1.9%

0015 Senior managers - trade, broadcasting and other services, n.e.c. 1,806 1,835 1,858 29 23 1.6% 1.3%

0016 Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities 3,910 3,940 3,970 30 30 0.8% 0.8%

01-05 Specialized middle management occupations 32,507 32,895 33,236 388 341 1.2% 1.0%

011 Administrative services managers 9,436 9,528 9,620 92 92 1.0% 1.0%

0111 Financial managers 3,903 3,933 3,965 30 32 0.8% 0.8%

0112 Human resources managers 2,636 2,661 2,687 25 26 0.9% 1.0%

0113 Purchasing managers 732 740 748 8 8 1.1% 1.1%

0114 Other administrative services managers 1,177 1,188 1,201 11 13 0.9% 1.1%

012 Managers in financial and business services 9,941 9,995 10,053 54 58 0.5% 0.6%

0121 Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers 3,610 3,617 3,627 7 10 0.2% 0.3%

0122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 3,018 3,025 3,033 7 8 0.2% 0.3%

0124 Advertising, marketing and public relations managers 2,200 2,231 2,259 31 28 1.4% 1.3%

0125 Other business services managers 669 673 680 4 7 0.6% 1.0%

013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 826 864 882 38 18 4.6% 2.1%

0131 Telecommunication carriers managers 589 612 627 23 15 3.9% 2.5%


APPENDIX BCalgary Region Detailed Occupation Demand Forecasts

62



0132 Postal and courier services managers 230 245 248 15 3 6.5% 1.2%

021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems 5,026 5,090 5,147 64 57 1.3% 1.1%

0211 Engineering managers 1,642 1,663 1,680 21 17 1.3% 1.0%

0212 Architecture and science managers 272 274 277 2 3 0.7% 1.1%

0213 Computer and information systems managers 2,753 2,792 2,826 39 34 1.4% 1.2%

031 Managers in health care 1,126 1,144 1,162 18 18 1.6% 1.6%

0311 Managers in health care 1,126 1,144 1,162 18 18 1.6% 1.6%

041 Managers in public administration 390 394 397 4 3 1.0% 0.8%

0411 Government managers - health and social policy development and program administration 46 47 47 1 0 2.2% 0.0%

0412 Government managers - economic analysis, policy development and program administration 111 113 114 2 1 1.8% 0.9%

0413 Government managers - education policy development and program administration 11 11 11 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

0414 Other managers in public administration 166 167 167 1 0 0.6% 0.0%

042 Managers in education and social and community services 3,221 3,271 3,320 50 49 1.6% 1.5%

0421 Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training 755 765 775 10 10 1.3% 1.3%

0422 School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education 1,253 1,267 1,283 14 16 1.1% 1.3%

0423 Managers in social, community and correctional services 1,114 1,139 1,161 25 22 2.2% 1.9%

043 Managers in public protection services 173 173 173 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

0431 Commissioned police officers 28 28 28 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

0432 Fire chiefs and senior firefighting officers 41 41 41 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

0433 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Forces 100 100 100 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 1,013 1,051 1,078 38 27 3.8% 2.6%

0511 Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 104 107 109 3 2 2.9% 1.9%

0512 Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts 373 390 401 17 11 4.6% 2.8%


63 APPENDIX B



0513 Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors 491 508 520 17 12 3.5% 2.4%

06 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services 30,328 30,594 30,891 266 297 0.9% 1.0%

060 Corporate sales managers 5,182 5,250 5,305 68 55 1.3% 1.0%

0601 Corporate sales managers 5,190 5,257 5,312 67 55 1.3% 1.0%

062 Retail and wholesale trade managers 15,047 15,150 15,295 103 145 0.7% 1.0%

0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 15,060 15,162 15,308 102 146 0.7% 1.0%

063 Managers in food service and accommodation 7,657 7,717 7,782 60 65 0.8% 0.8%

0631 Restaurant and food service managers 6,630 6,682 6,738 52 56 0.8% 0.8%

0632 Accommodation service managers 923 931 939 8 8 0.9% 0.9%

065 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 1,675 1,695 1,716 20 21 1.2% 1.2%

0651 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 1,681 1,701 1,722 20 21 1.2% 1.2%

07-09 Middle management occupations in trades, transportation, production and utilities 20,275 20,387 20,478 112 91 0.6% 0.4%

071 Managers in construction and facility operation and maintenance 10,659 10,579 10,583 -80 4 -0.8% 0.0%

0711 Construction managers 5,329 5,251 5,235 -78 -16 -1.5% -0.3%

0712 Home building and renovation managers 2,270 2,226 2,213 -44 -13 -1.9% -0.6%

0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers 2,631 2,664 2,692 33 28 1.3% 1.1%

073 Managers in transportation 1,661 1,718 1,736 57 18 3.4% 1.0%

0731 Managers in transportation 1,661 1,718 1,736 57 18 3.4% 1.0%

081 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 2,284 2,306 2,333 22 27 1.0% 1.2%

0811 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 2,301 2,324 2,351 23 27 1.0% 1.2%

082 Managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 1,137 1,164 1,149 27 -15 2.4% -1.3%

0821 Managers in agriculture 1,062 1,087 1,073 25 -14 2.4% -1.3%

0822 Managers in horticulture 66 68 67 2 -1 3.0% -1.5%

0823 Managers in aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 - -


64 APPENDIX B



091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities 3,637 3,708 3,755 71 47 2.0% 1.3%

0911 Manufacturing managers 2,437 2,487 2,518 50 31 2.1% 1.2%

0912 Utilities managers 1,065 1,084 1,098 19 14 1.8% 1.3%

1 Business, finance and administration occupations 149,604 151,456 152,986 1852 1530 1.2% 1.0%

11 Professional occupations in business and finance 36,442 36,799 37,151 357 352 1.0% 1.0%

111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 24,602 24,793 25,002 191 209 0.8% 0.8%

1111 Financial auditors and accountants 17,076 17,227 17,395 151 168 0.9% 1.0%

1112 Financial and investment analysts 2,026 2,045 2,063 19 18 0.9% 0.9%

1113 Securities agents, investment dealers and brokers 1,078 1,085 1,091 7 6 0.6% 0.6%

1114 Other financial officers 4,039 4,050 4,062 11 12 0.3% 0.3%

112 Human resources and business service professionals 11,576 11,734 11,875 158 141 1.4% 1.2%

1121 Human resources professionals 2,881 2,919 2,952 38 33 1.3% 1.1%

1122 Professional occupations in business management consulting 4,629 4,677 4,724 48 47 1.0% 1.0%

1123 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations 3,402 3,462 3,514 60 52 1.8% 1.5%

12 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations 49,008 49,528 50,029 520 501 1.1% 1.0%

121 Administrative services supervisors 3,503 3,561 3,595 58 34 1.7% 1.0%

1211 Supervisors, general office and administrative support workers 465 470 476 5 6 1.1% 1.3%

1212 Supervisors, finance and insurance office workers 600 605 610 5 5 0.8% 0.8%

1213 Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers 69 69 69 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

1214 Supervisors, mail and message distribution occupations 188 201 203 13 2 6.9% 1.0%

1215 Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 1,628 1,654 1,670 26 16 1.6% 1.0%

122 Administrative and regulatory occupations 28,223 28,508 28,790 285 282 1.0% 1.0%

1221 Administrative officers 12,401 12,523 12,649 122 126 1.0% 1.0%


65 APPENDIX B



1222 Executive assistants 2,388 2,414 2,439 26 25 1.1% 1.0%

1223 Human resources and recruitment officers 1,771 1,782 1,801 11 19 0.6% 1.1%

1224 Property administrators 2,459 2,463 2,472 4 9 0.2% 0.4%

1225 Purchasing agents and officers 6,067 6,135 6,200 68 65 1.1% 1.1%

1226 Conference and event planners 955 977 994 22 17 2.3% 1.7%

1227 Court officers and justices of the peace 106 106 106 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

1228 Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers 503 503 503 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

124 Office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical 14,996 15,143 15,300 147 157 1.0% 1.0%

1241 Administrative assistants 12,393 12,522 12,654 129 132 1.0% 1.1%

1242 Legal administrative assistants 2,221 2,231 2,250 10 19 0.5% 0.9%

1243 Medical administrative assistants 237 240 244 3 4 1.3% 1.7%

125 Court reporters, transcriptionists, records management technicians and statistical officers 1,432 1,447 1,465 15 18 1.0% 1.2%

1251 Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations 388 392 398 4 6 1.0% 1.5%

1252 Health information management occupations 161 163 166 2 3 1.2% 1.8%

1253 Records management technicians 541 546 552 5 6 0.9% 1.1%

1254 Statistical officers and related research support occupations 176 177 179 1 2 0.6% 1.1%

13 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 9,283 9,348 9,413 65 65 0.7% 0.7%

131 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 9,284 9,348 9,414 64 66 0.7% 0.7%

1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 6,489 6,537 6,593 48 56 0.7% 0.9%

1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners 1,051 1,053 1,055 2 2 0.2% 0.2%

1313 Insurance underwriters 874 876 877 2 1 0.2% 0.1%

1314 Assessors, valuators and appraisers 541 543 546 2 3 0.4% 0.6%

1315 Customs, ship and other brokers 109 116 117 7 1 6.4% 0.9%

14 Office support occupations 37,571 38,029 38,457 458 428 1.2% 1.1%

141 General office workers 19,548 19,794 20,033 246 239 1.3% 1.2%

1411 General office support workers 10,014 10,128 10,243 114 115 1.1% 1.1%


66 APPENDIX B



1414 Receptionists 8,445 8,560 8,673 115 113 1.4% 1.3%

1415 Personnel clerks 365 368 372 3 4 0.8% 1.1%

1416 Court clerks 119 119 119 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

142 Office equipment operators 2,453 2,488 2,517 35 29 1.4% 1.2%

1422 Data entry clerks 2,374 2,407 2,435 33 28 1.4% 1.2%

1423 Desktop publishing operators and related occupations 50 50 51 0 1 0.0% 2.0%

143 Financial, insurance and related administrative support workers 11,471 11,585 11,692 114 107 1.0% 0.9%

1431 Accounting and related clerks 7,920 8,005 8,085 85 80 1.1% 1.0%

1432 Payroll clerks 1,520 1,533 1,548 13 15 0.9% 1.0%

1434 Banking, insurance and other financial clerks 1,021 1,023 1,025 2 2 0.2% 0.2%

1435 Collectors 179 180 181 1 1 0.6% 0.6%

145 Library, correspondence and other clerks 3,380 3,432 3,476 52 44 1.5% 1.3%

1451 Library assistants and clerks 1,019 1,056 1,082 37 26 3.6% 2.5%

1452 Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks 1,389 1,398 1,412 9 14 0.6% 1.0%

1454 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks 901 905 910 4 5 0.4% 0.6%

15 Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 16,583 17,018 17,192 435 174 2.6% 1.0%

151 Mail and message distribution occupations 4,643 4,917 4,970 274 53 5.9% 1.1%

1511 Mail, postal and related workers 1,530 1,625 1,642 95 17 6.2% 1.0%

1512 Letter carriers 1,569 1,673 1,691 104 18 6.6% 1.1%

1513 Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors 1,470 1,545 1,562 75 17 5.1% 1.1%

152 Supply chain logistics, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 11,775 11,933 12,053 158 120 1.3% 1.0%

1521 Shippers and receivers 5,136 5,200 5,254 64 54 1.2% 1.0%

1522 Storekeepers and partspersons 1,704 1,718 1,734 14 16 0.8% 0.9%

1523 Production logistics co-ordinators 889 900 909 11 9 1.2% 1.0%

1524 Purchasing and inventory control workers 1,302 1,312 1,325 10 13 0.8% 1.0%

1525 Dispatchers 1,139 1,162 1,173 23 11 2.0% 0.9%


67 APPENDIX B



1526 Transportation route and crew schedulers 193 200 202 7 2 3.6% 1.0%

2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 91,988 92,967 93,930 979 963 1.1% 1.0%

21 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 57,672 58,257 58,880 585 623 1.0% 1.1%

211 Physical science professionals 6,239 6,296 6,368 57 72 0.9% 1.1%

2111 Physicists and astronomers 56 57 57 1 0 1.8% 0.0%

2112 Chemists 547 551 557 4 6 0.7% 1.1%

2113 Geoscientists and oceanographers 5,473 5,523 5,587 50 64 0.9% 1.2%

2114 Meteorologists and climatologists 0 0 0 0 0 - -

2115 Other professional occupations in physical sciences 44 45 45 1 0 2.3% 0.0%

212 Life science professionals 1,123 1,133 1,144 10 11 0.9% 1.0%

2121 Biologists and related scientists 997 1,006 1,016 9 10 0.9% 1.0%

2122 Forestry professionals 28 28 28 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2123 Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists 77 78 78 1 0 1.3% 0.0%

213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers 16,060 16,185 16,338 125 153 0.8% 0.9%

2131 Civil engineers 4,620 4,645 4,683 25 38 0.5% 0.8%

2132 Mechanical engineers 4,888 4,924 4,971 36 47 0.7% 1.0%

2133 Electrical and electronics engineers 4,010 4,046 4,087 36 41 0.9% 1.0%

2134 Chemical engineers 2,104 2,124 2,145 20 21 1.0% 1.0%

214 Other engineers 11,369 11,498 11,633 129 135 1.1% 1.2%

2141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers 807 816 825 9 9 1.1% 1.1%

2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers 158 159 160 1 1 0.6% 0.6%

2143 Mining engineers 206 208 210 2 2 1.0% 1.0%

2144 Geological engineers 277 279 281 2 2 0.7% 0.7%

2145 Petroleum engineers 7,176 7,250 7,336 74 86 1.0% 1.2%

2146 Aerospace engineers 44 45 46 1 1 2.3% 2.2%

2147 Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers) 1,317 1,344 1,365 27 21 2.1% 1.6%


68 APPENDIX B



2148 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. 855 859 867 4 8 0.5% 0.9%

215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors 2,430 2,442 2,463 12 21 0.5% 0.9%

2151 Architects 843 846 853 3 7 0.4% 0.8%

2152 Landscape architects 111 112 113 1 1 0.9% 0.9%

2153 Urban and land use planners 570 575 580 5 5 0.9% 0.9%

2154 Land surveyors 740 744 750 4 6 0.5% 0.8%

216 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 261 264 266 3 2 1.1% 0.8%

2161 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 256 258 261 2 3 0.8% 1.2%

217 Computer and information systems professionals 19,205 19,438 19,656 233 218 1.2% 1.1%

2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 9,738 9,852 9,960 114 108 1.2% 1.1%

2172 Database analysts and data administrators 931 944 956 13 12 1.4% 1.3%

2173 Software engineers and designers 2,015 2,043 2,067 28 24 1.4% 1.2%

2174 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 4,916 4,976 5,034 60 58 1.2% 1.2%

2175 Web designers and developers 600 604 609 4 5 0.7% 0.8%

22 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 34,072 34,460 34,797 388 337 1.1% 1.0%

221 Technical occupations in physical sciences 4,155 4,197 4,246 42 49 1.0% 1.2%

2211 Chemical technologists and technicians 1,190 1,201 1,214 11 13 0.9% 1.1%

2212 Geological and mineral technologists and technicians 2,794 2,822 2,856 28 34 1.0% 1.2%

222 Technical occupations in life sciences 763 775 784 12 9 1.6% 1.2%

2221 Biological technologists and technicians 120 122 124 2 2 1.7% 1.6%

2222 Agricultural and fish products inspectors 83 84 85 1 1 1.2% 1.2%

2223 Forestry technologists and technicians 0 0 0 0 0 - -

2224 Conservation and fishery officers 22 22 22 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2225 Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists 451 458 465 7 7 1.6% 1.5%

223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering 4,615 4,628 4,655 13 27 0.3% 0.6%

2231 Civil engineering technologists and technicians 1,356 1,364 1,375 8 11 0.6% 0.8%


69 APPENDIX B



2232 Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians 958 965 974 7 9 0.7% 0.9%

2233 Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians 656 664 671 8 7 1.2% 1.1%

2234 Construction estimators 1,324 1,305 1,302 -19 -3 -1.4% -0.2%

224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering 5,513 5,573 5,626 60 53 1.1% 1.0%

2241 Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians 2,160 2,180 2,201 20 21 0.9% 1.0%

2242 Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 2,254 2,271 2,292 17 21 0.8% 0.9%

2243 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 508 511 516 3 5 0.6% 1.0%

2244 Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors 252 264 267 12 3 4.8% 1.1%

225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics and meteorology 5,254 5,283 5,326 29 43 0.6% 0.8%

2251 Architectural technologists and technicians 716 715 718 -1 3 -0.1% 0.4%

2252 Industrial designers 214 216 219 2 3 0.9% 1.4%

2253 Drafting technologists and technicians 3,157 3,175 3,201 18 26 0.6% 0.8%

2254 Land survey technologists and technicians 133 134 135 1 1 0.8% 0.7%

2255 Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology 722 728 735 6 7 0.8% 1.0%

226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers 3,119 3,136 3,160 17 24 0.5% 0.8%

2261 Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians 342 345 349 3 4 0.9% 1.2%

2262 Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers 404 410 414 6 4 1.5% 1.0%

2263 Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety 1,368 1,373 1,384 5 11 0.4% 0.8%

2264 Construction inspectors 663 659 660 -4 1 -0.6% 0.2%

227 Transportation officers and controllers 1,965 2,039 2,060 74 21 3.8% 1.0%

2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors 1,542 1,593 1,610 51 17 3.3% 1.1%

2272 Air traffic controllers and related occupations 161 168 170 7 2 4.3% 1.2%


70 APPENDIX B



2273 Deck officers, water transport 0 0 0 0 0 - -

2274 Engineer officers, water transport 0 0 0 0 0 - -

2275 Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators 183 195 197 12 2 6.6% 1.0%

228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 6,891 6,988 7,077 97 89 1.4% 1.3%

2281 Computer network technicians 3,490 3,540 3,585 50 45 1.4% 1.3%

2282 User support technicians 2,669 2,705 2,740 36 35 1.3% 1.3%

2283 Information systems testing technicians 233 237 240 4 3 1.7% 1.3%

3 Health occupations 57,587 58,468 59,372 881 904 1.5% 1.5%

30 Professional occupations in nursing 17,485 17,762 18,044 277 282 1.6% 1.6%

301 Professional occupations in nursing 17,478 17,755 18,036 277 281 1.6% 1.6%

3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors 252 256 260 4 4 1.6% 1.6%

3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 17,247 17,520 17,798 273 278 1.6% 1.6%

31 Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 13,088 13,279 13,480 191 201 1.5% 1.5%

311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 6,818 6,921 7,028 103 107 1.5% 1.5%

3111 Specialist physicians 2,301 2,338 2,375 37 37 1.6% 1.6%

3112 General practitioners and family physicians 3,049 3,097 3,146 48 49 1.6% 1.6%

3113 Dentists 1,044 1,060 1,077 16 17 1.5% 1.6%

3114 Veterinarians 388 390 394 2 4 0.5% 1.0%

312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals 1,204 1,223 1,243 19 20 1.6% 1.6%

3121 Optometrists 396 402 409 6 7 1.5% 1.7%

3122 Chiropractors 305 310 315 5 5 1.6% 1.6%

3124 Allied primary health practitioners 404 410 417 6 7 1.5% 1.7%

3125 Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating 99 101 102 2 1 2.0% 1.0%

313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 1,880 1,900 1,924 20 24 1.1% 1.3%

3131 Pharmacists 1,535 1,550 1,568 15 18 1.0% 1.2%

3132 Dietitians and nutritionists 314 319 324 5 5 1.6% 1.6%


71 APPENDIX B



314 Therapy and assessment professionals 3,052 3,100 3,149 48 49 1.6% 1.6%

3141 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists 564 572 581 8 9 1.4% 1.6%

3142 Physiotherapists 1,133 1,151 1,170 18 19 1.6% 1.7%

3143 Occupational therapists 850 864 877 14 13 1.6% 1.5%

3144 Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment 486 494 502 8 8 1.6% 1.6%

32 Technical occupations in health 15,805 16,040 16,280 235 240 1.5% 1.5%

321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 7,318 7,419 7,527 101 108 1.4% 1.5%

3211 Medical laboratory technologists 1,336 1,357 1,378 21 21 1.6% 1.5%

3212 Medical laboratory technicians and pathologists' assistants 1,689 1,715 1,741 26 26 1.5% 1.5%

3213 Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians 527 530 535 3 5 0.6% 0.9%

3214 Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists 618 628 638 10 10 1.6% 1.6%

3215 Medical radiation technologists 1,106 1,124 1,142 18 18 1.6% 1.6%

3216 Medical sonographers 366 372 378 6 6 1.6% 1.6%

3217 Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c. 138 140 142 2 2 1.4% 1.4%

3219 Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 1,417 1,432 1,449 15 17 1.1% 1.2%

322 Technical occupations in dental health care 1,740 1,771 1,799 31 28 1.8% 1.6%

3221 Denturists 67 69 70 2 1 3.0% 1.4%

3222 Dental hygienists and dental therapists 1,150 1,169 1,187 19 18 1.7% 1.5%

3223 Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory assistants 517 529 537 12 8 2.3% 1.5%

323 Other technical occupations in health care 6,690 6,792 6,895 102 103 1.5% 1.5%

3231 Opticians 433 438 444 5 6 1.2% 1.4%

3232 Practitioners of natural healing 404 410 417 6 7 1.5% 1.7%

3233 Licensed practical nurses 2,616 2,657 2,699 41 42 1.6% 1.6%

3234 Paramedical occupations 1,184 1,203 1,221 19 18 1.6% 1.5%

3236 Massage therapists 1,741 1,767 1,793 26 26 1.5% 1.5%


72 APPENDIX B



3237 Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment 186 188 191 2 3 1.1% 1.6%

34 Assisting occupations in support of health services 10,931 11,106 11,283 175 177 1.6% 1.6%

341 Assisting occupations in support of health services 10,941 11,116 11,294 175 178 1.6% 1.6%

3411 Dental assistants 1,950 1,982 2,013 32 31 1.6% 1.6%

3413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 7,186 7,301 7,417 115 116 1.6% 1.6%

3414 Other assisting occupations in support of health services 1,691 1,719 1,746 28 27 1.7% 1.6%

4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 79,094 80,102 81,117 1008 1015 1.3% 1.3%

40 Professional occupations in education services 24,884 25,170 25,479 286 309 1.1% 1.2%

401 University professors and post-secondary assistants 6,153 6,222 6,298 69 76 1.1% 1.2%

4011 University professors and lecturers 3,371 3,409 3,451 38 42 1.1% 1.2%

4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants 2,787 2,818 2,853 31 35 1.1% 1.2%

402 College and other vocational instructors 3,084 3,126 3,164 42 38 1.4% 1.2%

4021 College and other vocational instructors 3,070 3,112 3,150 42 38 1.4% 1.2%

403 Secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors 15,468 15,642 15,834 174 192 1.1% 1.2%

4031 Secondary school teachers 5,662 5,725 5,795 63 70 1.1% 1.2%

4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 9,111 9,213 9,326 102 113 1.1% 1.2%

4033 Educational counsellors 665 673 681 8 8 1.2% 1.2%

41 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services 22,543 22,837 23,125 294 288 1.3% 1.3%

411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 4,892 4,923 4,966 31 43 0.6% 0.9%

4111 Judges 59 59 59 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

4112 Lawyers and Quebec notaries 4,808 4,838 4,882 30 44 0.6% 0.9%

415 Social and community service professionals 7,106 7,240 7,364 134 124 1.9% 1.7%

4151 Psychologists 1,336 1,356 1,377 20 21 1.5% 1.5%

4152 Social workers 2,266 2,301 2,335 35 34 1.5% 1.5%


73 APPENDIX B



4153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors 1,433 1,457 1,481 24 24 1.7% 1.6%

4154 Professional occupations in religion 1,311 1,358 1,395 47 37 3.6% 2.7%

4155 Probation and parole officers and related occupations 118 119 119 1 0 0.8% 0.0%

4156 Employment counsellors 508 514 521 6 7 1.2% 1.4%

416 Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers 10,260 10,387 10,505 127 118 1.2% 1.1%

4161 Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers 2,042 2,062 2,084 20 22 1.0% 1.1%

4162 Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts 700 707 714 7 7 1.0% 1.0%

4163 Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants 2,808 2,843 2,872 35 29 1.2% 1.0%

4164 Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers 614 620 626 6 6 1.0% 1.0%

4165 Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers 1,096 1,112 1,128 16 16 1.5% 1.4%

4166 Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers 927 942 955 15 13 1.6% 1.4%

4167 Recreation, sports and fitness policy researchers, consultants and program officers 467 478 487 11 9 2.4% 1.9%

4168 Program officers unique to government 412 412 413 0 1 0.0% 0.2%

4169 Other professional occupations in social science, n.e.c. 278 279 282 1 3 0.4% 1.1%

42 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 14,888 15,126 15,363 238 237 1.6% 1.6%

421 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 14,903 15,142 15,379 239 237 1.6% 1.6%

4211 Paralegal and related occupations 994 999 1,008 5 9 0.5% 0.9%

4212 Social and community service workers 4,383 4,456 4,526 73 70 1.7% 1.6%

4214 Early childhood educators and assistants 7,844 7,974 8,104 130 130 1.7% 1.6%

4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities 151 153 156 2 3 1.3% 2.0%

4216 Other instructors 882 892 903 10 11 1.1% 1.2%

4217 Other religious occupations 340 352 361 12 9 3.5% 2.6%


74 APPENDIX B



43 Occupations in front-line public protection services 3,376 3,390 3,407 14 17 0.4% 0.5%

431 Occupations in front-line public protection services 3,367 3,380 3,397 13 17 0.4% 0.5%

4311 Police officers (except commissioned) 2,047 2,055 2,065 8 10 0.4% 0.5%

4312 Firefighters 1,103 1,108 1,115 5 7 0.5% 0.6%

4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces 223 223 223 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

44 Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations 12,453 12,614 12,771 161 157 1.3% 1.2%

441 Home care providers and educational support occupations 11,841 12,000 12,155 159 155 1.3% 1.3%

4411 Home child care providers 5,263 5,335 5,399 72 64 1.4% 1.2%

4412 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 2,810 2,855 2,899 45 44 1.6% 1.5%

4413 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 3,683 3,724 3,769 41 45 1.1% 1.2%

442 Legal and public protection support occupations 544 545 546 1 1 0.2% 0.2%

4421 Sheriffs and bailiffs 93 93 93 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

4422 Correctional service officers 286 286 286 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

4423 By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c. 129 130 131 1 1 0.8% 0.8%

5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 18,646 19,094 19,439 448 345 2.4% 1.8%

51 Professional occupations in art and culture 6,258 6,441 6,576 183 135 2.9% 2.1%

511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 473 489 499 16 10 3.4% 2.0%

5111 Librarians 410 423 433 13 10 3.2% 2.4%

5112 Conservators and curators 12 12 13 0 1 0.0% 8.3%

5113 Archivists 0 0 0 0 0 - -

512 Writing, translating and related communications professionals 2,074 2,136 2,182 62 46 3.0% 2.2%

5121 Authors and writers 829 852 870 23 18 2.8% 2.1%

5122 Editors 540 557 569 17 12 3.1% 2.2%

5123 Journalists 332 346 356 14 10 4.2% 2.9%


75 APPENDIX B



5125 Translators, terminologists and interpreters 133 134 135 1 1 0.8% 0.7%

513 Creative and performing artists 3,459 3,561 3,636 102 75 2.9% 2.1%

5131 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 531 555 571 24 16 4.5% 2.9%

5132 Conductors, composers and arrangers 52 54 56 2 2 3.8% 3.7%

5133 Musicians and singers 1,544 1,579 1,607 35 28 2.3% 1.8%

5134 Dancers 354 360 366 6 6 1.7% 1.7%

5135 Actors and comedians 271 284 292 13 8 4.8% 2.8%

5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists 507 526 538 19 12 3.7% 2.3%

52 Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 12,147 12,410 12,619 263 209 2.2% 1.7%

521 Technical occupations in libraries, public archives, museums and art galleries 570 580 589 10 9 1.8% 1.6%

5211 Library and public archive technicians 439 446 452 7 6 1.6% 1.3%

5212 Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries 65 68 70 3 2 4.6% 2.9%

522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

2,150 2,201 2,240 51 39 2.4% 1.8%

5221 Photographers 766 770 777 4 7 0.5% 0.9%

5222 Film and video camera operators 166 173 178 7 5 4.2% 2.9%

5223 Graphic arts technicians 114 116 117 2 1 1.8% 0.9%

5224 Broadcast technicians 174 182 187 8 5 4.6% 2.7%

5225 Audio and video recording technicians 408 419 427 11 8 2.7% 1.9%

5226 Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

134 139 142 5 3 3.7% 2.2%

5227 Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts 185 193 198 8 5 4.3% 2.6%

523 Announcers and other performers, n.e.c. 354 368 378 14 10 4.0% 2.7%

5231 Announcers and other broadcasters 190 198 204 8 6 4.2% 3.0%

5232 Other performers, n.e.c. 130 136 140 6 4 4.6% 2.9%

524 Creative designers and craftspersons 4,157 4,200 4,246 43 46 1.0% 1.1%

5241 Graphic designers and illustrators 2,044 2,074 2,101 30 27 1.5% 1.3%


76 APPENDIX B



5242 Interior designers and interior decorators 1,271 1,274 1,284 3 10 0.2% 0.8%

5243 Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers 275 278 281 3 3 1.1% 1.1%

5244 Artisans and craftspersons 285 288 291 3 3 1.1% 1.0%

5245 Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products 0 0 0 0 0 - -

525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 4,353 4,486 4,582 133 96 3.1% 2.1%

5251 Athletes 83 87 89 4 2 4.8% 2.3%

5252 Coaches 640 654 665 14 11 2.2% 1.7%

5253 Sports officials and referees 117 122 125 5 3 4.3% 2.5%

5254 Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 3,449 3,558 3,636 109 78 3.2% 2.2%

6 Sales and service occupations 175,598 177,410 179,231 1812 1821 1.0% 1.0%

62 Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 15,791 15,896 16,008 105 112 0.7% 0.7%

621 Retail sales supervisors 2,692 2,710 2,738 18 28 0.7% 1.0%

6211 Retail sales supervisors 2,691 2,710 2,737 19 27 0.7% 1.0%

622 Technical sales specialists in wholesale trade and retail and wholesale buyers 5,598 5,659 5,719 61 60 1.1% 1.1%

6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade 3,912 3,962 4,006 50 44 1.3% 1.1%

6222 Retail and wholesale buyers 1,486 1,497 1,512 11 15 0.7% 1.0%

623 Insurance, real estate and financial sales occupations 6,923 6,939 6,959 16 20 0.2% 0.3%

6231 Insurance agents and brokers 2,238 2,243 2,247 5 4 0.2% 0.2%

6232 Real estate agents and salespersons 2,456 2,460 2,468 4 8 0.2% 0.3%

6235 Financial sales representatives 2,071 2,075 2,080 4 5 0.2% 0.2%

63 Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 23,902 24,157 24,397 255 240 1.1% 1.0%

631 Service supervisors 3,744 3,792 3,836 48 44 1.3% 1.2%

6311 Food service supervisors 1,579 1,590 1,603 11 13 0.7% 0.8%

6312 Executive housekeepers 139 140 141 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

6313 Accommodation, travel, tourism and related services supervisors 242 250 256 8 6 3.3% 2.4%


77 APPENDIX B



6314 Customer and information services supervisors 365 368 372 3 4 0.8% 1.1%

6315 Cleaning supervisors 179 180 182 1 2 0.6% 1.1%

6316 Other services supervisors 858 876 889 18 13 2.1% 1.5%

632 Chefs and cooks 12,793 12,910 13,031 117 121 0.9% 0.9%

6321 Chefs 3,481 3,516 3,550 35 34 1.0% 1.0%

6322 Cooks 9,203 9,283 9,367 80 84 0.9% 0.9%

633 Butchers and bakers 2,536 2,563 2,589 27 26 1.1% 1.0%

6331 Butchers, meat cutters and fishmongers - retail and wholesale 741 746 753 5 7 0.7% 0.9%

6332 Bakers 1,731 1,753 1,771 22 18 1.3% 1.0%

634 Specialized occupations in personal and customer services 4,444 4,501 4,546 57 45 1.3% 1.0%

6341 Hairstylists and barbers 3,477 3,520 3,555 43 35 1.2% 1.0%

6342 Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners 441 448 452 7 4 1.6% 0.9%

6343 Shoe repairers and shoemakers 35 36 36 1 0 2.9% 0.0%

6344 Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occupations 105 106 108 1 2 1.0% 1.9%

6345 Upholsterers 263 267 270 4 3 1.5% 1.1%

6346 Funeral directors and embalmers 90 91 92 1 1 1.1% 1.1%

64 Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade 37,976 38,314 38,709 338 395 0.9% 1.0%

641 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 6,203 6,297 6,366 94 69 1.5% 1.1%

6411 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 6,247 6,341 6,410 94 69 1.5% 1.1%



65 Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 39,826 40,363 40,791 537 428 1.3% 1.1%

651 Occupations in food and beverage service 13,123 13,243 13,367 120 124 0.9% 0.9%

6511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses 1,431 1,442 1,454 11 12 0.8% 0.8%

6512 Bartenders 2,190 2,210 2,231 20 21 0.9% 1.0%


78 APPENDIX B



6513 Food and beverage servers 9,453 9,540 9,629 87 89 0.9% 0.9%

652 Occupations in travel and accommodation 5,985 6,124 6,188 139 64 2.3% 1.0%

6521 Travel counsellors 1,099 1,104 1,117 5 13 0.5% 1.2%

6522 Pursers and flight attendants 1,931 1,989 2,010 58 21 3.0% 1.1%

6523 Airline ticket and service agents 1,713 1,770 1,788 57 18 3.3% 1.0%

6524 Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks 149 159 161 10 2 6.7% 1.3%

6525 Hotel front desk clerks 994 1,001 1,009 7 8 0.7% 0.8%

653 Tourism and amusement services occupations 1,397 1,458 1,498 61 40 4.4% 2.7%

6531 Tour and travel guides 57 58 59 1 1 1.8% 1.7%

6532 Outdoor sport and recreational guides 0 0 0 0 0 - -

6533 Casino occupations 1,328 1,387 1,426 59 39 4.4% 2.8%

654 Security guards and related security service occupations 5,045 5,085 5,148 40 63 0.8% 1.2%

6541 Security guards and related security service occupations 5,030 5,070 5,133 40 63 0.8% 1.2%

655 Customer and information services representatives 10,374 10,503 10,599 129 96 1.2% 0.9%

6551 Customer services representatives - financial institutions 3,288 3,294 3,301 6 7 0.2% 0.2%

6552 Other customer and information services representatives 7,032 7,152 7,240 120 88 1.7% 1.2%

656 Other occupations in personal service 3,260 3,296 3,330 36 34 1.1% 1.0%

6561 Image, social and other personal consultants 118 119 120 1 1 0.8% 0.8%

6562 Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations 2,002 2,024 2,044 22 20 1.1% 1.0%

6563 Pet groomers and animal care workers 862 872 881 10 9 1.2% 1.0%

6564 Other personal service occupations 107 109 110 2 1 1.9% 0.9%

66 Sales support occupations 20,723 20,893 21,108 170 215 0.8% 1.0%

661 Cashiers 11,772 11,873 11,997 101 124 0.9% 1.0%

6611 Cashiers 11,808 11,909 12,034 101 125 0.9% 1.0%

662 Other sales support and related occupations 8,603 8,665 8,750 62 85 0.7% 1.0%

6621 Service station attendants 545 553 558 8 5 1.5% 0.9%


79 APPENDIX B



6622 Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers 6,745 6,788 6,855 43 67 0.6% 1.0%

6623 Other sales related occupations 993 1,000 1,010 7 10 0.7% 1.0%

67 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c. 36,267 36,651 37,069 384 418 1.1% 1.1%



672 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and amusement services 1,438 1,491 1,526 53 35 3.7% 2.3%

6721 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and facilities set-up services 224 229 231 5 2 2.2% 0.9%

6722 Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport 1,203 1,250 1,282 47 32 3.9% 2.6%

673 Cleaners 17,874 18,028 18,236 154 208 0.9% 1.2%

6731 Light duty cleaners 9,442 9,516 9,632 74 116 0.8% 1.2%

6732 Specialized cleaners 1,792 1,807 1,825 15 18 0.8% 1.0%

6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 6,149 6,203 6,272 54 69 0.9% 1.1%

674 Other service support and related occupations, n.e.c. 1,921 1,957 1,985 36 28 1.9% 1.4%

6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations 888 899 909 11 10 1.2% 1.1%

6742 Other service support occupations, n.e.c. 979 1,003 1,021 24 18 2.5% 1.8%

7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 114,824 115,285 115,737 461 452 0.4% 0.4%

72 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 48,963 48,525 48,514 -438 -11 -0.9% 0.0%

720 Contractors and supervisors, industrial, electrical and construction trades and related workers 4,590 4,537 4,531 -53 -6 -1.2% -0.1%

7201 Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

571 572 575 1 3 0.2% 0.5%

7202 Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations 670 669 672 -1 3 -0.1% 0.4%

7203 Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades 408 401 399 -7 -2 -1.7% -0.5%


80 APPENDIX B



7204 Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades 709 695 692 -14 -3 -2.0% -0.4%

7205 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers 1,881 1,844 1,834 -37 -10 -2.0% -0.5%

723 Machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 8,103 8,151 8,211 48 60 0.6% 0.7%

7231 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors 1,257 1,277 1,293 20 16 1.6% 1.3%

7232 Tool and die makers 20 21 21 1 0 5.0% 0.0%

7233 Sheet metal workers 1,299 1,287 1,287 -12 0 -0.9% 0.0%

7234 Boilermakers 40 41 41 1 0 2.5% 0.0%

7235 Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters 218 222 225 4 3 1.8% 1.4%

7236 Ironworkers 615 605 603 -10 -2 -1.6% -0.3%

7237 Welders and related machine operators 4,075 4,111 4,147 36 36 0.9% 0.9%

724 Electrical trades and electrical power line and telecommunications workers 10,176 10,112 10,127 -64 15 -0.6% 0.1%

7241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) 6,719 6,603 6,573 -116 -30 -1.7% -0.5%

7242 Industrial electricians 828 832 837 4 5 0.5% 0.6%

7243 Power system electricians 72 73 75 1 2 1.4% 2.7%

7244 Electrical power line and cable workers 430 429 431 -1 2 -0.2% 0.5%

7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers 525 541 553 16 12 3.0% 2.2%

7246 Telecommunications installation and repair workers 1,048 1,072 1,090 24 18 2.3% 1.7%

7247 Cable television service and maintenance technicians 28 29 30 1 1 3.6% 3.4%

725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 4,663 4,592 4,577 -71 -15 -1.5% -0.3%

7251 Plumbers 3,424 3,358 3,340 -66 -18 -1.9% -0.5%

7252 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 931 924 925 -7 1 -0.8% 0.1%

7253 Gas fitters 151 150 151 -1 1 -0.7% 0.7%

727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 8,571 8,457 8,432 -114 -25 -1.3% -0.3%

7271 Carpenters 7,370 7,245 7,214 -125 -31 -1.7% -0.4%


81 APPENDIX B



7272 Cabinetmakers 1,190 1,201 1,207 11 6 0.9% 0.5%

728 Masonry and plastering trades 5,077 4,986 4,961 -91 -25 -1.8% -0.5%

7281 Bricklayers 692 681 679 -11 -2 -1.6% -0.3%

7282 Concrete finishers 717 706 704 -11 -2 -1.5% -0.3%

7283 Tilesetters 708 696 693 -12 -3 -1.7% -0.4%

7284 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers 2,931 2,872 2,855 -59 -17 -2.0% -0.6%

729 Other construction trades 6,619 6,504 6,475 -115 -29 -1.7% -0.4%

7291 Roofers and shinglers 1,684 1,650 1,640 -34 -10 -2.0% -0.6%

7292 Glaziers 696 690 690 -6 0 -0.9% 0.0%

7293 Insulators 653 640 637 -13 -3 -2.0% -0.5%

7294 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 2,372 2,328 2,315 -44 -13 -1.9% -0.6%

7295 Floor covering installers 1,065 1,045 1,040 -20 -5 -1.9% -0.5%

73 Maintenance and equipment operation trades 18,511 18,748 18,886 237 138 1.3% 0.7%

730 Contractors and supervisors, maintenance trades and heavy equipment and transport operators 2,997 3,006 3,016 9 10 0.3% 0.3%

7301 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades 580 591 596 11 5 1.9% 0.8%

7302 Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews 1,593 1,572 1,568 -21 -4 -1.3% -0.3%

7303 Supervisors, printing and related occupations 134 138 140 4 2 3.0% 1.4%

7304 Supervisors, railway transport operations 122 130 132 8 2 6.6% 1.5%

7305 Supervisors, motor transport and other ground transit operators 301 305 307 4 2 1.3% 0.7%

731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 6,409 6,496 6,537 87 41 1.4% 0.6%

7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 1,658 1,679 1,695 21 16 1.3% 1.0%

7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 1,505 1,527 1,539 22 12 1.5% 0.8%

7313 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 1,047 1,033 1,031 -14 -2 -1.3% -0.2%

7314 Railway carmen/women 264 280 283 16 3 6.1% 1.1%

7315 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors 903 946 956 43 10 4.8% 1.1%


82 APPENDIX B



7316 Machine fitters 55 56 56 1 0 1.8% 0.0%

7318 Elevator constructors and mechanics 435 427 424 -8 -3 -1.8% -0.7%

732 Automotive service technicians 5,628 5,698 5,754 70 56 1.2% 1.0%

7321 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 4,511 4,568 4,613 57 45 1.3% 1.0%

7322 Motor vehicle body repairers 1,099 1,111 1,122 12 11 1.1% 1.0%

733 Other mechanics and related repairers 754 756 761 2 5 0.3% 0.7%

7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics 122 120 119 -2 -1 -1.6% -0.8%

7332 Appliance servicers and repairers 368 369 372 1 3 0.3% 0.8%

7333 Electrical mechanics 30 30 30 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

7334 Motorcycle, all-terrain vehicle and other related mechanics 105 106 107 1 1 1.0% 0.9%

7335 Other small engine and small equipment repairers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

736 Train crew operating occupations 577 615 622 38 7 6.6% 1.1%

7361 Railway and yard locomotive engineers 122 130 132 8 2 6.6% 1.5%

7362 Railway conductors and brakemen/women 448 478 483 30 5 6.7% 1.0%

737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 347 340 338 -7 -2 -2.0% -0.6%

7371 Crane operators 289 283 282 -6 -1 -2.1% -0.4%

7372 Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction 26 25 25 -1 0 -3.8% 0.0%

7373 Water well drillers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

738 Printing press operators and other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 827 846 858 19 12 2.3% 1.4%

7381 Printing press operators 499 516 524 17 8 3.4% 1.6%

7384 Other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 289 291 294 2 3 0.7% 1.0%

74 Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers 11,496 11,580 11,669 84 89 0.7% 0.8%

744 Other installers, repairers and servicers 3,313 3,302 3,310 -11 8 -0.3% 0.2%

7441 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 2,395 2,375 2,375 -20 0 -0.8% 0.0%

7442 Waterworks and gas maintenance workers 164 164 165 0 1 0.0% 0.6%

7444 Pest controllers and fumigators 61 62 62 1 0 1.6% 0.0%


83 APPENDIX B



7445 Other repairers and servicers 402 409 413 7 4 1.7% 1.0%

745 Longshore workers and material handlers 7,880 7,971 8,048 91 77 1.2% 1.0%

7451 Longshore workers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

7452 Material handlers 7,886 7,977 8,054 91 77 1.2% 1.0%

75 Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations 26,710 27,341 27,575 631 234 2.4% 0.9%

751 Motor vehicle and transit drivers 21,490 22,075 22,282 585 207 2.7% 0.9%

7511 Transport truck drivers 10,577 10,684 10,778 107 94 1.0% 0.9%

7512 Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators 3,998 4,190 4,230 192 40 4.8% 1.0%

7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs 2,794 2,956 2,987 162 31 5.8% 1.0%

7514 Delivery and courier service drivers 3,507 3,619 3,654 112 35 3.2% 1.0%

752 Heavy equipment operators 2,816 2,799 2,801 -17 2 -0.6% 0.1%

7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2,159 2,136 2,133 -23 -3 -1.1% -0.1%

7522 Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers 516 519 523 3 4 0.6% 0.8%

753 Other transport equipment operators and related maintenance workers 1,911 1,965 1,985 54 20 2.8% 1.0%

7531 Railway yard and track maintenance workers 156 166 168 10 2 6.4% 1.2%

7532 Water transport deck and engine room crew 0 0 0 0 0 - -

7533 Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations 0 0 0 0 0 - -

7534 Air transport ramp attendants 940 977 987 37 10 3.9% 1.0%

7535 Other automotive mechanical installers and servicers 776 782 790 6 8 0.8% 1.0%

76 Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations 7,925 7,845 7,833 -80 -12 -1.0% -0.2%

761 Trades helpers and labourers 7,096 7,004 6,986 -92 -18 -1.3% -0.3%

7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers 6,612 6,517 6,496 -95 -21 -1.4% -0.3%

7612 Other trades helpers and labourers 351 352 353 1 1 0.3% 0.3%

762 Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. 799 811 817 12 6 1.5% 0.7%

7621 Public works and maintenance labourers 568 571 575 3 4 0.5% 0.7%

7622 Railway and motor transport labourers 169 174 176 5 2 3.0% 1.1%


84 APPENDIX B



8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 10,081 10,199 10,312 118 113 1.2% 1.1%

82 Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production 3,876 3,911 3,954 35 43 0.9% 1.1%

821 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0 0 0 0 0 - -

822 Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 1,339 1,350 1,365 11 15 0.8% 1.1%

8221 Supervisors, mining and quarrying 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8222 Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services 1,316 1,326 1,341 10 15 0.8% 1.1%

823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related occupations 1,406 1,420 1,438 14 18 1.0% 1.3%

8231 Underground production and development miners 66 67 67 1 0 1.5% 0.0%

8232 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers 1,314 1,328 1,345 14 17 1.1% 1.3%

824 Logging machinery operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8241 Logging machinery operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

825 Contractors and supervisors, agriculture, horticulture and related operations and services 1,077 1,087 1,096 10 9 0.9% 0.8%

8252 Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers 192 197 196 5 -1 2.6% -0.5%

8255 Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services 844 849 859 5 10 0.6% 1.2%

826 Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8261 Fishing masters and officers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8262 Fishermen/women 0 0 0 0 0 - -

84 Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production 1,187 1,206 1,205 19 -1 1.6% -0.1%

841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling 475 480 486 5 6 1.1% 1.3%

8411 Underground mine service and support workers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8412 Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators 469 474 480 5 6 1.1% 1.3%


85 APPENDIX B



842 Logging and forestry workers 55 55 55 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8421 Chain saw and skidder operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8422 Silviculture and forestry workers 39 40 40 1 0 2.6% 0.0%

843 Agriculture and horticulture workers 590 603 596 13 -7 2.2% -1.2%

8431 General farm workers 507 519 513 12 -6 2.4% -1.2%

8432 Nursery and greenhouse workers 79 81 80 2 -1 2.5% -1.2%

844 Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8441 Fishing vessel deckhands 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8442 Trappers and hunters 0 0 0 0 0 - -

86 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 4,712 4,772 4,839 60 67 1.3% 1.4%

861 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 4,709 4,768 4,835 59 67 1.3% 1.4%

8611 Harvesting labourers 31 32 31 1 -1 3.2% -3.1%

8612 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 3,948 4,000 4,059 52 59 1.3% 1.5%

8613 Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8614 Mine labourers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

8615 Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers 626 633 641 7 8 1.1% 1.3%

8616 Logging and forestry labourers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 16,912 17,255 17,471 343 216 2.0% 1.3%

92 Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators 3,766 3,833 3,882 67 49 1.8% 1.3%

921 Supervisors, processing and manufacturing occupations 1,162 1,188 1,204 26 16 2.2% 1.3%

9211 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing 200 204 207 4 3 2.0% 1.5%

9212 Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 432 439 444 7 5 1.6% 1.1%

9213 Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing 292 301 306 9 5 3.1% 1.7%

9214 Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing 92 94 95 2 1 2.2% 1.1%


86 APPENDIX B



9215 Supervisors, forest products processing 123 127 129 4 2 3.3% 1.6%

9217 Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 - -

922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication 219 223 226 4 3 1.8% 1.3%

9221 Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9222 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing 74 76 77 2 1 2.7% 1.3%

9223 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9224 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing 31 32 32 1 0 3.2% 0.0%

9226 Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing 58 58 59 0 1 0.0% 1.7%

9227 Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly 16 17 17 1 0 6.3% 0.0%

923 Central control and process operators in processing and manufacturing 726 739 749 13 10 1.8% 1.4%

9231 Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9232 Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators 715 728 738 13 10 1.8% 1.4%

9235 Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

924 Utilities equipment operators and controllers 1,277 1,294 1,311 17 17 1.3% 1.3%

9241 Power engineers and power systems operators 871 882 893 11 11 1.3% 1.2%

9243 Water and waste treatment plant operators 345 350 355 5 5 1.4% 1.4%

94 Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers 5,488 5,612 5,684 124 72 2.3% 1.3%

941 Machine operators and related workers in mineral and metal products processing and manufacturing

1,212 1,226 1,237 14 11 1.2% 0.9%

9411 Machine operators, mineral and metal processing 96 98 99 2 1 2.1% 1.0%

9412 Foundry workers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9413 Glass forming and finishing machine operators and glass cutters 97 100 102 3 2 3.1% 2.0%


87 APPENDIX B



9414 Concrete, clay and stone forming operators 222 225 227 3 2 1.4% 0.9%

9415 Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing 22 22 23 0 1 0.0% 4.5%

9416 Metalworking and forging machine operators 340 342 345 2 3 0.6% 0.9%

9417 Machining tool operators 109 111 112 2 1 1.8% 0.9%

9418 Other metal products machine operators 75 76 77 1 1 1.3% 1.3%

942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing 494 502 508 8 6 1.6% 1.2%

9421 Chemical plant machine operators 67 68 69 1 1 1.5% 1.5%

9422 Plastics processing machine operators 374 380 385 6 5 1.6% 1.3%

9423 Rubber processing machine operators and related workers 23 23 23 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing and manufacturing

271 278 282 7 4 2.6% 1.4%

9431 Sawmill machine operators 55 57 58 2 1 3.6% 1.8%

9432 Pulp mill machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9433 Papermaking and finishing machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9434 Other wood processing machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9435 Paper converting machine operators 100 103 105 3 2 3.0% 1.9%

9436 Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9437 Woodworking machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 - -

944 Machine operators and related workers in textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

241 247 250 6 3 2.5% 1.2%

9441 Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9442 Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations 8 8 8 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9445 Fabric, fur and leather cutters 51 52 52 1 0 2.0% 0.0%

9446 Industrial sewing machine operators 123 126 128 3 2 2.4% 1.6%

9447 Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 - -


88 APPENDIX B



946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and associated products processing 1,626 1,676 1,700 50 24 3.1% 1.4%

9461 Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing 625 644 654 19 10 3.0% 1.6%

9462 Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers 854 881 894 27 13 3.2% 1.5%

9463 Fish and seafood plant workers 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9465 Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing 101 104 105 3 1 3.0% 1.0%

947 Printing equipment operators and related occupations 1,232 1,267 1,285 35 18 2.8% 1.4%

9471 Plateless printing equipment operators 377 388 393 11 5 2.9% 1.3%

9472 Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations 241 249 253 8 4 3.3% 1.6%

9473 Binding and finishing machine operators 330 341 346 11 5 3.3% 1.5%

9474 Photographic and film processors 116 117 118 1 1 0.9% 0.9%

95 Assemblers in manufacturing 3,494 3,559 3,600 65 41 1.9% 1.2%

952 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers 1,330 1,354 1,370 24 16 1.8% 1.2%

9521 Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9522 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers 60 61 62 1 1 1.7% 1.6%

9523 Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers 437 448 454 11 6 2.5% 1.3%

9524 Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing 352 359 363 7 4 2.0% 1.1%

9525 Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers 78 79 81 1 2 1.3% 2.5%

9526 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors 83 84 85 1 1 1.2% 1.2%

9527 Machine operators and inspectors, electrical apparatus manufacturing 51 52 53 1 1 2.0% 1.9%

953 Other assembly and related occupations 2,088 2,127 2,151 39 24 1.9% 1.1%

9531 Boat assemblers and inspectors 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9532 Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors 491 504 510 13 6 2.6% 1.2%


89 APPENDIX B



9533 Other wood products assemblers and inspectors 338 344 348 6 4 1.8% 1.2%

9534 Furniture finishers and refinishers 283 290 294 7 4 2.5% 1.4%

9535 Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors 118 120 121 2 1 1.7% 0.8%

9536 Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators 279 282 285 3 3 1.1% 1.1%

9537 Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors 302 308 311 6 3 2.0% 1.0%

96 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 3,451 3,528 3,574 77 46 2.2% 1.3%

961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 3,453 3,530 3,576 77 46 2.2% 1.3%

9611 Labourers in mineral and metal processing 140 141 143 1 2 0.7% 1.4%

9612 Labourers in metal fabrication 119 120 120 1 0 0.8% 0.0%

9613 Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities 130 132 134 2 2 1.5% 1.5%

9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing 60 62 63 2 1 3.3% 1.6%

9615 Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing 67 68 68 1 0 1.5% 0.0%

9616 Labourers in textile processing 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9617 Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing 1,659 1,708 1,732 49 24 3.0% 1.4%

9618 Labourers in fish and seafood processing 0 0 0 0 0 - -

9619 Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 812 827 837 15 10 1.8% 1.2%


90 APPENDIX B

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