Economics

of

sustainable

agricultural

systems

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A S

Empirical evidence of food security

and mitigation benefits

from improved cropland management

by

Giacomo Branca

with

L. Lipper, N. McCarthy and M.C. Jolejole

(Agricultural Development Economics Division, FAO)

Smallholder Mitigation:

Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms

Expert Workshop

Rome, June 7-8 , 2011

Economics

of

sustainable

agricultural

systems

E

S

A S

Outline

1. Key research questions

2. Data and methods

3. Results

4. Discussion

Economics

of

sustainable

agricultural

systems

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1. Key research questionsSustainable agriculture :

• increases crop productivity and system resilience, without resources degradation

• potential to deliver climate change mitigation co-benefits: reduced GHG emissions and increased Carbon sequestration

Where to expect highest mitigation co-benefits from changes in smallholder agriculture aimed at

promoting food security and CC adaptation (synergies)?

What are the key barriers that prevent the adoption of “climate smart” agricultural systems

(trade-offs)?

Economics

of

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2. Data and methods • Empirical results from lit review (CAB Abstracts, Science Direct, Science Magazine Online, ProQuest, Economist Intelligence Unit, World Bank & OECD, WOCAT technology database)

Academic & grey literature (e.g. WOCAT: thesis, manuscripts and other unpublished work)

•English, Spanish, Portuguese; developing countries

•implementation at smallholder level: small-size farms (<1-2 ha); only a few cases medium-large scale farms

•Not included: model estimations, research station experiments, on-farm field trials, studies without quantitative impact or technology packages; research experiments included only in case of long-term/worldwide/large areas experiments

•Additional lit review (qualitative) of adoption barriers

Economics

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Meta-analysis:

Each study result is one observation (one data point in a larger dataset containing all available information)

A single publication contributed more than once if a separate study was done for different countries or if more than one crop type was studied

% change of average yields with respect to the yield under conventional agriculture (results compared with control areas)

Cereals Other crops Total

Agronomy 28 10 38

Integrated nutrient management 24 7 31

Tillage and residue management 55 15 70

Water management 44 8 52

Agroforestry 20 6 26

Total 171 46 217

Management practice n.

Economics

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A S Effect of improved cropland management practices: average % marginal increase of cereal yields at global level (95% confidence intervals )

3. Results: synergies

121

79

106115

69

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Agronomy (28) Integrated nutrient

management

(24)

Tillage and residue

management

(55)

Water management

(44)

Agroforestry (20)

Management

Practices

Details of the Practices

Cover crops

Improved crop or fallow rotations

Improved crop varieties

Nutrient

management

Organic fertilization (use of compost, animal and

green manure)

Incorporation of crop residues, mulching

Reduced/minimum/zero tillage

Terraces, contour farming

Water harvesting

Live barriers, fences

Trees on cropland

Agronomy

Tillage and residue

management

Agroforestry

Water

management

Economics

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A S Dry areas

116

72

122

9281

0

50

100

150

200

250

Agronomy (6) Integrated nutrient

management

(20)

Tillage and residue

management

(42)

Water management

(30)

Agroforestry (8)

122 118

55

164

61

0

50

100

150

200

250

Agronomy (22) Integrated nutrient

management

(4)

Tillage and residue

management

(13)

Water management

(14)

Agroforestry (12)

Humid areas

Economics

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Agronomy Tillage/residue management

Water management

Agroforestry

%

Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Henao and Baanante 2006

Asia and Pacific

Average % marginal increase potential of cereal yields at regional level

Sub-Saharan Africa

Economics

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agricultural

systems

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High mitigation & food security potential in humid areas: synergies (potential to link mitigation finance)

Mitigation co-benefits smaller in dry lands – but overall impacts of changes on food security substantial (mitig. finance mainly feasible over large areas/farmers)

0100200300

Dry

0 100 200 300

Agronomy

Nutrient management

Tillage/residue management

Water management

Agroforestry Moist

Yield: average marginal increase (%/year)

GHG reduction (tCO2e/ha/year) (graph 1ton=100%)

Economics

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A S • SLM is key in developing “Climate-smart” productive systems:

- difference between humid and dry areas and implications for climate finance

- geographical differences: SLM more effective in SSA?

- no effect of farm size?

• Limits of the present analysis:

- limited number of crops (maize and wheat), climates (warm dry/humid, no cool climates). And mainly small farms…

- no observations reported negative responses (may be biased sample)

- limited information on the yield variability

- consistence of results differs across technologies

4. Discussion

Economics

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A S Expand research :

expand database of SLM and crop yields• include other crops and agro-environmental conditions

• consider grasslands and livestock

• meta-analysis of experimental data

• Consider single practices instead of technology packages

• correct biased regional representation - 60% in SSA

• Conduct analysis at farming systems/AEZ level

build databases for emission reduction coefficients by farming system/agro-ecologies

identify locations/farming systems where mitigation has highest economic returns to FS & agricultural development

4. Discussion

Economics

of

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agricultural

systems

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THANK YOU

for your attention!