BIENVENIDOS

WELCOME

M A S T E R O F

C E R E M O N Y

ALFREDO BABUNACHILA/Air Canada

W E L C O M E

B Y I A T A

PETER CERDÁREGIONAL VICE PRESIDENT, THE AMERICAS

IATA

V I D E O

T H E M A G I C O F

A V I A T I O N

ALEXANDRE DE JUNIACDIRECTOR GENERAL & CEO

IATA

W E L C O M E

T O C H I L E

GLORIA HUTTMINISTRA

MINISTERIO DE TRANSPORTES & COMUNICACIONESCHILE

T H E G O V E R N M E N T

P E R S P E C T I V E O N

A V I A T I O N

GLORIA HUTTMINISTER OF TRANSPORT, CHILE

GUILLERMO DIETRICHMINISTER OF TRANSPORT, ARGENTINA

VIVIANA ENCINACNN

G R O W I N G D E M A N D F O R

G L O B A L C O N N E C T I V I T Y

HOLGER PAULMANNSKY AIRLINE

FERNANDO POITEVINLATAM

MICHAEL KERKLOHMUNICH AIRPORT

EZEQUIEL BARRENECHEAAEROPUERTOS ANDINOS DEL PERU

ALVARO GONZALEZOPAIN

CARLOS OZORESICF

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E C O N O M I C

S T A T E O F T H E

A I R L I N E I N D U S T R Y

JAMES WILTSHIREHEAD OF POLICY ANALYSIS, IATA

Beneficios altos y estables a escala mundial

Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst and airline releases

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% o

f re

ven

ue

Airline industry operating margin

Unadjusted margin

Margin adjusted to remove seasonality

Ciclo prolongado por macroeconomía favorable

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IMF World Economic Outlook, IATA forecasts

-5-4-3-2-10123456789101112131415

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

% c

han

ge o

ver

pre

vio

us

year

% c

han

ge o

ver

pre

vio

us

year

Worldwide RPK growth and GDP growth

Worldwide RPK growth

World GDP growth

Ciclo actual ya lleva 8 años

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IATA forecasts

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Worldwide RPK cycles, indexed to low point

1982-91

1991-01

2001-09

2009-

WE ARE HERE IN 2017

Tarifas subiendo, pero estables en términos reales

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, PaxIS+, Datastream, IATA forecasts

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

US

cen

ts p

er t

on

ne

kilo

met

er

Yields including ancillaries & cargo revenues, nominal and inflation-adjusted

Yield

Inflation-adjusted yield

Subida de costos el principal desafío

Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst, Platts, IATA forecasts

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% c

han

ge o

ver

pre

vio

us

year

US$

per

bar

rel

Jet fuel price and growth in unit costs

Unit cost growth

Jet fuel price

Factor de carga por encima del umbral de rentabilidad

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IATA forecasts

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

% A

TKs

Breakeven and achieved weight load factors

Load factor achieved

Breakeven load factor

Compañías sudando activos y mejorando márgenes

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, McKinsey, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Cap

ital

pro

du

ctiv

ity,

rev

enu

e/in

vest

ed

cap

ital

, US$

EBIT

mar

gin

, % r

even

ue

Components of return on capital

Capital productivity

EBIT margin

Otro año de beneficios sólidos en 2018

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA estimates and forecasts

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

US

$ b

illio

n

% r

even

ue

s

Global commercial airline profitability

Net post-tax profits

EBIT margin

Diferencias entre regiones, pero cierta convergencia

Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

N America Asia Pacific Europe L America Middle East Africa

% r

even

ues

EBIT margin by airline region of registration

2016 2017 2018

Pero amplia variación en beneficio por pasajero

www.iata.org/economics 26Source: IATA

18.10

2.42

8.86

6.07

-1.61

6.47

9.26

16.32

2.40

9.03

5.51

-0.83

1.15

8.45

16.67

3.00

9.99

5.52

-0.55

2.65

8.90

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Nth America Latin America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Industry

2016 2017(e) 2018(f)

US$ Profit per passenger (US$)

Mejorar la competitividad es clave

www.iata.org/economics 27Source: World Economic Forum

Reducir costos y mejorar infraestructura

www.iata.org/economics 28Source: World Economic Forum

Modelo de concesiones en América Latina es mejorable

www.iata.org/economics 29Source: ACI, FAA, IATA, ICAO

Consumidores son los grandes ganadores

Source: IATA Economics using data from SRS Analyser, ICAO, HIS. IATA forecasts

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

US$

/RTK

in 2

01

4U

S$

Nu

mb

er o

f u

niq

ue

city

-pai

rs

Unique city-pairs and real transport costs

Unique city pairs

Real cost of air transport

Libertad comercial es mejor política pro-consumidor

Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics, UN, IATA forecasts

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Ave

rage

mo

nth

s b

efo

re n

ext

trip

Mill

ion

Passenger numbers and months before next trip for world population

Airline passengers

Number of months before average member of world population takes a flight

Resumen

• Industria en buen estado a nivel global, pero amplias variaciones regionales

• Amenazas incluyen:

• Macro – populismo, proteccionismo y guerras comerciales;

• Costos – falta de eficiencia en cadena de valor, impuestos;

• Regulación – leyes que socavan modelo de negocios, impiden la

innovación.

• América Latina ya tiene diversas desafíos para ganar en competitividad:

• Tasas e impuestos altos;

• Falta de capacidad en principales aeropuertos;

• Regulación contra-producente de protección al consumidor

Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 33

M A N A G I N G D I S R U P T I O N

I N T H E R E G I O N

ENRIQUE CUETOLATAM AIRLINES GROUP

PEDRO HEILBRONCOPA AIRLINES

GERMÁN EFROMOVICHAVIANCA HOLDINGS

MARIO DELL’ACQUAAEROLÍNEAS ARGENTINAS

MARTIN EURNEKIANCORPORACIÓN AMÉRICA

SEBASTIÁN AGUIRRECNN

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TOM MAESLUFTHANSA GROUP

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DANIEL CARBAJALINTERNET WORLD TRADE GROUP

ALEX COVARRUBIASSITA

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