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What Will Tomorrow Look Like
In Central Iowa?
William Fulton
January 12, 2012
What Will Tomorrow Look
Like In Central Iowa?
• Lots of growth drivers are changing
• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different
approach to growth
• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future
• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well
as environmental) can help
Central Iowa is Growing and Changing
• Central Iowa Is Growing At California Levels
• Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
• Boomers and Millennials Will Drive the Markets
Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Polk Dallas Warren Madison
County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
1990-2000 2000-2010
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
1990-2000 2000-2010
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
All of Iowa Is Developing Land At
A Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing
Baby Boomers and Millennials are the two fastest growing demographic segments in America
Des Moines best place for young professionals
Latino population is much larger than state average
All these demographic groups – especially young professionals – are trending away from traditional suburban lifestyle
Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive
The Future Housing and Jobs Market
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials
Population
Labor Force
Americans Want More
Walkable, Sustainable
Neighborhoods“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mix
of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an
easy walk or close drive.”
77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.
88% place more value on the quality of the neighborhood than the size of the home.
Millennials Especially Are Trending
Away From Traditional Suburbs
47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix
of houses, shops, and businesses.
40% would prefer a rural or a small town.
12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood
with houses only.
Americans Value “Sense of Place,”
Whether City, Village, or Rural Town
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
Low-density suburban development rarely pays for itself
Costs are not just infrastructure related but also operations and maintenance
Burden usually falls on taxpayers Low-density development means
higher snowplowing costs to accommodate fewer people.
And As Our Population Ages …
… these fiscal
burdens on the
taxpayers are likely
only to get greater
And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?
Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt
Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody
wants to make tough choices
Current options:
Increase the gas tax
Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)
Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.
Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power
$-
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
1993 2011
Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)
Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax
Maybe we need to look at different solutions!
Compact development lowers costs at the
neighborhood/project level
Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs
Source: City of Charlotte
How a Tomorrow Plan
Helped Another Region
Sacramento
• Not a latte-guzzling
coastal metropolis
• State capital in
agricultural area
• Low (comparatively)
housing prices
• Growing rapidly in
population
Prosperity?
New urbanized land:661 square miles
VMT:47.2 per HH per day
Mode:Car: 93.7%Transit 0.8% Walk: 5.5%
Prosperity?
New urbanized land:304 square miles
VMT:34.9 per HH per day
Mode:Car: 83.9%Transit 3.3% Walk: 12.9%
All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?
• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional
consequences
• You all have to work together on environmental and
infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway
• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense
for you locally
Good Luck
With Tomorrow! You’ve got some great
advantages here
You have to a lot of work together in order to remain competitive worldwide.
You don’t your tax revenue eaten up to service low-density sprawl
You have to work together to get all this done
Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated to researching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more communities nationwide.
www.smartgrowthamerica.org
1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355