BIMBSec - Padini Holdings - 20120719 - Re-Initiate Coverage

BIMB SECURITIES RESEARCH

MARKET INSIGHT

Thursday, 19 July, 2012

Re-Initiate Coverage

PP16795/03/2013(031743)

| 1

Padini Holdings Buy▲ Great Brand Comes with Great Value Price RM1.92

Target Price (+14.2% upside)RM2.13

Stock Data

Bloomberg Ticker PAD MK

Equity

Altman Z-score 5.4 Market Cap 1,217.1 YTD price chg 69.7% Issued shares 657.9 YTD KLCI chg 4.4% 52-week range (H) 1.88 Beta 1.3 52-week range (L) 0.82 Major Shareholders 3-mth avg daily volume 1,669,835 Pang Chaun Yong 44.0% Free Float 47.6% Skim AmanahSaham

Bu

5.0% Shariah Compliant Y Capital Dynamics Ass 3.5% Share Performance (%) 1mth 3mth 12mth Absolute 20.0 30.9 82.3 vs. KLCI 67.2 27.8 67.2 Financial Highlights

FYE 30 June

(RMm)

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Revenue 475.5 518.8 568.5 732.9 850.2 EBIT 70.0 86.3 106.1 134.1 159.5 Pre-tax profit 67.6 86.3 105.1 131.1 155.9 Net Profit 49.5 61.0 75.7 98.3 117.0 EPS (sen) 7.5 9.3 11.5 14.9 17.8 EPS growth (%) 18.7% 23.1% 24.1% 29.9% 19.0% PER (x) 24.6 20.2 16.3 12.8 10.7 DPS (sen) 2.7 4.5 4.0 6.0 7.0 Div. Yield (%) 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% 3.1% 3.7% NTA/share (RM) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 EPS (sen) 7.5 9.3 11.5 14.9 17.8 EBIT margin 14.7% 16.6% 18.7% 18.3% 18.8% Pre-tax margin 14.2% 16.6% 18.5% 17.9% 18.3% Effective tax rate 26.7% 29.3% 27.9% 25.0% 25.0% ROE 26.5% 27.8% 29.3% 30.4% 32.0% Growth ratios Turnover 24.05% 9.12% 9.57% 28.93% 16.01% EBIT 21.20% 23.26% 22.99% 26.36% 18.91% Pre-tax profit 17.26% 27.61% 21.76% 24.76% 18.98% Net profit 18.74% 23.10% 24.14% 29.87% 18.98% Share Price Chart

The Research Team

[email protected]

03-26918887 ext 111

We are re-initiating our coverage on Padini Holdings with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of RM2.13 which is derived by pegging a PER of 12x over FY13 EPS of 17.8 sen. We believe Padini to enjoy solid earnings growth going forward due to (i) an aggressive outlet expansion by end FY12, (ii) Malaysia’s youthful population with high propensity to spend and (iii) positive outlook in the country retail industry.

A regional brand. Padini is one of the very few “Made in Malaysia” retail brands that has foot prints across the region namely Thailand, Brunei, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Egypt, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Bahrain and Morocco.

Bountiful profits in store. Padini has been unrelenting in expanding its retail space every year. The number of stores will have a major impact to the Group as their sales growth is mainly generated from new expansion of gross floor area (new retail space). For FY12, Padini has budgeted about 74,000 sq ft gross floor for 2 Padini Concept Stores and 3 Brands Outlet stores by end of FY12.

Positive retail outlook. The Distributive Trade Sector comprises of wholesale trade, retail trade and motor vehicles as the three main sub-sectors. Sales value of Distributive Trade sector in 1Q2012 increased to RM204.1bn or 9.2% as compared with 1Q2011. The retail trade sub-sector recorded the highest percentage growth in sales value circa. 10.7% or to RM9.1bn, followed by wholesale trade of 10.2% and motor vehicles with 2.6% as compared to the previous year.

Proven track record. Padini’s track record over the last 5 years had been impressive. During the period, the group has consistently delivered positive revenue and net profit CAGR of 15% and 22% respectively. As Padini targets mainly the younger generation, we believe the Group’s growth momentum is set to continue supported by the increasing young population in the country. We expect Padini to register net profit of RM98.3m and RM117m for FY12 and FY13 respectively, mainly driven by outlet expansion and positive consumer sentiment.

View & Valuation. We are re-initiating coverage on Padini Group Berhad with a Target Price of RM2.13 based on a 5-year average PER Band of 12x over FY13 EPS of 17.8sen. This translates into potential total return of 14.2%, including the expected dividend yield of 3%. Re-initiate with a BUY recommendation.

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mailto:[email protected]

19 July 2012 Re-Initiate Coverage: Padini Holdings

www.bimbsec.com.my | 2

BUSINESS PROFILE

Brief background. Padini Holdings Berhad (Padini) was incorporated in 1971 and started its business in manufacturing & wholesaling before venturing into trading, distribution and retailing. Mr Yong Pang Chaun, whom is the present managing director and also a substantial shareholder with a 44.0% stake, is also the founder of the group. Over the years, the group has developed their retail business for the low to middle income level. Started life as a manufacturer and supplier of garments around the early 70’s, the group then made inroads into the retail scene some years later with its diversified flagship brand. To date, Padini has over 41 years under its belt and is still going strong.

Well-established fashion labels. Currently Padini owns 9 well-established fashion labels: Vincci, Vincci+,

Vincci Accessories, Padini, Padini Authentics, PDI, Seed, Miki and P&Co. Each of their distinct labels

represents a particular fashion philosophy that encompasses a comprehensive range of products that fit

into their targeted consumer’s universe.

Company History

Source : Company

• Group started as manufacturer cum wholesaler of women's fashion 1971

• PADINI, VINCCI & MIKI brands established to distribute men's, women's and children's wear 1975 - 87

• Switch from wholesaler to consignor 1988

• SEED label established to distribute contemporary fashion 1990

• First of the Group's single brand retail store opened 1992

• VINCCI ceased its apparels line; full emphasis on women's fashion shoes; PADINI AUTHENTICS established 1994

• Listing of Padini Holdings Berhad on the KLSE Second Board 1998

• First of the Group's multi-brand concept store opened; two more labels, P&Co and PDI added 1999

• Padini Holdings Berhad moved to the KLSE Main Board 2004

• First of the Group value stores, Brands Outlet, opened 2006

• Padini brand was valued by Interbrand at RM245 million 2009

• An implementation of an ERP solution from SAP, started in August 2008, finally went "live" in June 2010 2010



PRINCIPAL ACTIVITIES A regional retail player. Already an established retailer domestically, Padini had embarked on its regional expansion and have embedded their presence in Thailand, Brunei, Saudi Arabia, Philippines, Cambodia, Egypt, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Bahrain and Morocco. For overseas markets, the products are sold mostly through retail stores managed by licensees and dealers. Well-diversified. Today, Padini is a leader in the domestic textile and garment industry with extensive network retailing its labels via freestanding stores, multi-brand Padini Concept Stores (PCS), franchised outlets and consignment counters in Malaysia and overseas. As at 2011, Padini operates 45 single brand stores, 22 multi-brand concept stores and 13 Brands Outlet stores. On top of that, Padini also involves in the distribution and retailing of its own fashion labels through 140 consignment outlets and 14 franchise stores and dealer stores throughout the nation. For markets abroad, the products are sold mostly through retail stores managed by licensees and dealers. The increasing and declining number of stores will have a major impact to the company as their sales growth is generated from new expansion of gross floor area (new retail space).

Retail Distribution Network

Source: Company, BIMB Securities Affordability + Extensive = Brands Outlet. In addition, the Group also utilizes a great number of lesser known house brands to market as value-for-money merchandise in its Brands Outlet (BO) stores. BO is the personification of shopping convenience, variety and affordability. Another feature of BO is that the store layout is designed to make the shopping experience easy and fun and is well-organised to showcase the extensive options within each product category. BO has grown exponentially from 2006 to become a substantial earnings driver, contributing 20% to group revenue in Q1FY12. From the first store opened in Dec 2006 at Ampang Point BO now cover a total gross floor area of 197,335 sq ft.

Group’s Trading Subsidiary

Source: Company, BIMB Securities

PADINI GROUP

Vincci Ladies Specialties

Padini Corporation

Seed Corporation

Yee Fong Hung Mikihouse

Children's Wear

Retailing

Free Standing Store

Multi Brand Store

Brands Outlet Store

Consignments Franchise

Store Dealer Store



Padini’s Brands Portfolio

Brand Sample Brands Description

Padini

Provides chic, formal and smart casual wear for today’s young executives. Office attire range includes tailored suits, separates, shirts, slacks and knitwear.

Designed with a contemporary feel for modern executives and managers between the mid 20’s and late 30’s; both genders

Padini

Authentics

A casual line for men, women and kids to reflect a relaxed and easy lifestyle; this line includes jeans wear, active wear, nauticals, khakis, knitwear and sweaters, and a range of accessories that is consistent with the label’s casual image.

PDI

PDI is casual wear that includes jeans, Tshirts, jackets and accessories.

Basic, easy to mix and match garment items with slight fashion elements to enhance the aesthetic appeal of the brand;

Designed for the teens to the 30’s; both genders

VINCCI

A playground for shoe lovers and addicts.

A line of contemporary fashion accessories, including shoes, bags, belts, jewellery, eyewear, and watches. Vincci morphs the hottest inspiration straight off the world’s fashion catwalks into up-to-the minute and stylish accessories.

Emphasis on affordability, trendy and a quick-to-market strategy.

VINCCI+

Vincci+ offers stylish shoes, bags and accessories that are high on the lure and fashion factor.

Offers higher quality leather, more refined daimente and stones, softer satins, prettier laces or sturdier woods.

Padini Concept Store Outlet

Source: Padini

Brands Outlet



VINNCI

Accessories

A spin-off from Vincci, as the purveyor of all things related to accessories such as necklaces, bangles, rings and earrings to belts, sunglasses, shoes, bags and etc.

P&Co

P&Co’s motto is fashion unlimited and they live up to it in designs that are ahead of the others on the street.

Eclectic, edgy and experimental, P&Co is a label for the individualistic fashionista.

Seed

Focus on contemporary fashion, trendy and creative offering both career and casual dressing for the young and even hip kids!

Offer runway-inspired and hottest trends alongside updated work wear pieces that are fashionably tailored for the corporate world.

MIKI Kids and MIKI Maternity

Children’s wear that is bright, fun and colourful, catering for those between 3 to 13;

Miki Maternity is designed that carries a range of clothing that is practical yet fashionable for the mums-to-be. i.e: Corporate Mum, Relaxed Mum, and Glamour Mum.

Source: Company’s website/BIMB Securities

GROWTH STRATEGY Network expansion plans. Padini has budgeted about 74,000 sq ft of gross floor to expand their market reach by 4QFY12 located in the Paradigm Mall (PJ) and the Setia City Mall(Klang), the latest shopping landmarks for their respective vicinity. i. BO and PCS - Leveraging on its successful core business, Padini is expanding its BO and PCS stores in

with 10 new stores for FY12. Out of these, 5 are already operational while the remaining 5 are to be opened in 4QFY12 encompassing 2 PCS and 3 BO. The PCS expansion will cover a gross floor area of approximately 46,000 sq ftand are slated to open by end of FY12 which will be located in the Klang Valley and Ipoh. As for BO, the expansion will be covering a gross floor area of approximately 28,000 sq ft; 2 will be in the Klang Valley and 1 in Kuching, Sarawak.

ii. Negotiations - Other than that, Padini also in negotiations stage with Genting to open a BO at the Genting Hotel Complex to be opened in FY13. Another negotiations are also ongoing with FJ Benjamin for them to be the franchisee for their Vincci products in Indonesia. Headquartered in Singapore and listed on the Singapore Exchange since November 1996, FJ Benjamin has offices in nine cities, manages over 20 iconic brands and operates 166 stores. FJ Benjamin exclusively retails and distributes brands such as Banana Republic, Catherine Deane, Céline, Gap, Givenchy, Goyard, Guess, La Senza, RAOUL, and Sheridan across various territories. Its retail footprint includes Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Australia. It distributes in-house labels RAOUL and Catherine Deane through pointsof-sale across Europe, the United States and the Middle East.



27.2%

62.0%

4.0%

2000

Below 15 years old

15 - 64 years old

65 years old andabove

Revenue Breakdown (FY2005-FY2013E)

Source: Company, BIMB Securities RETAIL SECTOR OUTLOOK Encouraging demography. We are of the view that the future for retail players looks bright especially with the country’s young population. As Padini’s main customers are mostly teenagers and young adults, there is tremendous growth potential for Padini’s brands.

Malaysia Population by Age Group (2000 & 2010)

Source: Department of Statistics/BIMB Securities

Revenue by Distribution Channels

Source: Company/BIMB Securities

243.3 286.1

316.9

383.3

475.5 518.8

568.5

732.9

850.2

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Vincci LadiesSpecialtiesCentre BSPadiniCorporation SB

SeedCorporation SB

Yee Fong Hung(M) SB

MikihouseChildren's WearSBOthers

RMm

32%

64%

4%

2010

16.9% 17.7% 15.8% 14.5% 13.7%

73.7% 73.4% 73.4% 76.4% 77.9%

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Consignment Own Stores



Malaysia’s retail industry defined. Distributive Trade Sector comprises of wholesale trade, retail trade and motor vehicles as the three main sub-sectors. Sales value of Distributive Trade sector in 1Q2012 increased to RM204.1bn or 9.2% as compared with 1Q2011. The retail trade sub-sector recorded the highest percentage growth in sales value circa. 10.7% or to RM9.1bn, followed by wholesale trade of 10.2% and motor vehicles with 2.6% as compared to the previous year.

Sales Value of Distributive Trade sector (2010 – 1Q2012)

Source: Department of Statistics/BIMB Securities FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Proven track record. Padini’s track record has been impressive with continuous growth since 2005. During the period, the group had posted revenue and net earnings CAGR of 15% and 22% respectively. Going forward, we expect Padini to register net profit of RM98.3m and RM117m for FY12 and FY13 respectively, mainly driven by outlet expansion and positive sector outlook.

Resilient Revenue, Pre-tax Profit and Net Profit (FY2005-FY2011)

Source: Company/BIMB Securities

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RMm RMm

164.4 169.4 173.4 178.9 186.9

195.6 204 206.8 204.1

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Impressive ROE. Padini’s efficiency is second to none as the group managed to maintain its ROE at above 25% since 2006, way above the market’s average of 15%-16%. For FY12 and FY13, we expect Padini’s ROE to be even more astounding at above 30%.

ROE and ROA Performances


EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, BIMB Securities Dividend Policy. Padini does not have a formal dividend policy. However, the group declared about 35% of net profit as dividend for FY11. The group’s dividend has ranged between 1.1sen – 4.5sen per share for the past 5 years (FY07-FY11) or translating to a payout ratio from a low of 23% to a high of 49% (FY10). Going forward, we expect the group to surpass the 35% payout for FY11 and have estimated approximately 40% for both FY12 and FY13, resulting to a yield of above 3%.

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

ROE ROA

14.21% 16.32% 16.09%

18.31% 18.86% 20.83%

22.52% 21.63% 22.03%

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

EBITDA Margin



Dividend Payout


VIEW AND RECOMMENDATION We are re-initiating coverage on Padini Group Berhad with a Target Price (TP) of RM2.13 which is derived by pegging a target 5 years average PER Band of 12x over FY13 EPS of 17.8sen. The impressive upside potential is justifiable given that:

i. Network expansion. Padini already a household brand name will continue to strive to expand its reach not only domestically by also in Indonesia as well.

ii. Hip and young urban population. Since Padini’s customer segments are predominantly teenagers and adults, growth potential is huge. Going forward, we expect consumer spending to be buoyed by this segment with high spending power.

iii. Positive retail outlook. The Distributive Trade Sector comprises of wholesale trade, retail trade and motor vehicles as the three main sub-sectors. Sales value of Distributive Trade sector in 1Q2012 increased to RM204.1bn or 9.2% as compared with 1Q2011. The retail trade sub-sector recorded the highest percentage growth in sales value circa. 10.7% or to RM9.1bn, followed by wholesale trade of 10.2% and motor vehicles with 2.6% as compared to the previous year.

Table 1: Peer Comparison Company Mkt Cap

(RMm) Price (RM) Target

Price (TP) EPS (sen) P/E (X) ROE Div Yield

FY11 FY12F FY11 FY12F

PADINI HOLDINGS 1,263.19 1.92 2.13 0.15 0.16 13.15 11.48 29.28 3.12

ZHULIAN CORP BHD 979.80 2.13 2.30 0.23 0.26 9.26 8.19 25.61 5.63

WING TAI MALAYSIA BHD 618.99 1.90 n.a. 0.29 0.39 6.55 4.87 12.54 2.63

BONIA CORP BHD 463.62 2.30 3.10 0.29 0.33 8.07 7.08 17.97 2.17

VOIR HOLDINGS BHD 57.60 0.48 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.23 2.63

TEO GUAN LEE CORP BHD 60.30 1.48 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.23 10.00

HING YIAP GROUP BHD 119.10 2.85 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.21 1.75

Average 0.24 0.28 9.26 8.00


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Net Income Dividend Payout Dividend Payout Ratio



Historical PE Chart

Relative Performance (2004-2011)

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Padini Relative Performance



Earnings Estimates FYE 30 June (RMm) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 518.8 568.5 732.9 850.2 974.4

Pretax profit 86.3 105.1 131.1 155.9 180.0

Core Net profit 62.1 77.3 98.3 117.0 135.0

Core EPS (sen) 9.3 11.5 14.9 17.8 20.5

EPS growth (%) 23.1% 24.1% 29.9% 19.0% 15.4%

DPS (sen) 4.5 4.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

NTA/ share (RM) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6

Net gearing (x) net cash net cash (0.4) (0.7) (0.9)

PER (x) 20.2 16.3 12.8 10.7 9.3

P/NTA (x) 5.4 4.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Net div. yield (%) 2.4% 2.1% 3.1% 3.7% 4.2%

ROE (%) 27.8% 29.3% 30.4% 32.0% 37.0%

Interest Cover (x) (80.1) (216.6) 44.0 45.1 45.5

Balance Sheet

FYE 30 June (RMm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Non Current Assets 74.4 81.2 92.3 94.6 313.6

Current Assets 189.9 209.5 264.3 349.8 97.0

Total Assets 264.3 290.7 356.6 444.3 410.6

Current Liabilities 91.6 83.3 111.3 137.9 44.0

Non Current

Liabilities

3.2 3.4 10.9 23.7 1.6

Shareholders' Fund 169.5 204.0 234.3 282.7 365.0

Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Equity & Liabilities 264.3 290.7 356.6 444.3 410.6



DEFINITION OF RATINGS

BIMB Securities uses the following rating system:

STOCK RECOMMENDATION

BUY Total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) is expected to exceed 10% in the next 12 months.

TRADING BUY Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain.

NEUTRAL Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

TAKE PROFIT Target price has been attained. Fundamentals remain intact. Look to accumulate at lower levels.

TRADING SELL Share price may fall by more than 15% in the next 3 months.

SELL Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months.

NOT RATED Stock is not within regular research coverage.

SECTOR RECOMMENDATION

OVERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary

market index over the next 12 months

NEUTRAL The Industry as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant

primary market index over the next 12 months

UNDERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary

market index over the next 12 months

Applicability of ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment

ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the

coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Disclaimer

The investments discussed or recommended in this report not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for

information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of BIMB

securities Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or either the securities mentioned herein. Members of the BIMB Group

and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The

information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken

to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it

should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and

estimates included in this report constitute our judgements as of this and are subject to change without notice. BIMB Securities Sdn

Bhd accepts no liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from use of this report.

Published by

BIMB SECURITIES SDN BHD (290163-X) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Level 32, Menara Multi Purpose, Capital Square,

No. 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah,

50100 Kuala Lumpur

Tel: 03-2691 8887, Fax: 03-2691 1262 Kenny Yee

http://www.bimbsec.com.my Head of Research

The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of BIMB Securities Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the BIMB Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opin-ions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice..



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BIMBSec - Padini Holdings - 20120719 - Re-Initiate Coverage

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