Biocomplexity and fisheries sustainability

Ray Hilborn

Tom QuinnDaniel Schindler

School of Aquatic and Fishery SciencesUniversity of Washington

What is biocomplexity

• Biodiversity is the diversity of life forms including species diversity, and diversity of stocks, life histories and morphologies within a species

• Biocomplexity is the “complex chemical, biological and social interactions in our planet’s systems” (Colwell 98)

The Earth is a living, ever-changing planet. Its environment is defined by the interaction of many complex systems that are structured or influenced by living organisms, their components or biological processes. These systems are the source of our sustenance, well being and quality of life. Biocomplexity is the defining property of these systems, resulting in the `whole being greater than the sum of its parts'. The area of biocomplexity that will come to the forefront in coming years is that of interactions of living organisms with all facets of their external environment. In particular, research on interactions involving multiple levels of biological organization and/or multiple spatial (microns to thousands of kilometres) and temporal (nanoseconds to aeons) scales will be of great importance. (Colwell 2000)

Fisheries Sustainability: The Litany• “Most of the world's major fisheries are depleted or rapidly

deteriorating. Wherever they operate, commercial fishing fleets are exceeding the oceans' ecological limits.”

Greenpeace

What is wrong with the litany?

• Most of the worlds fisheries are not collapsed and produce substantial yield

• In the US we are obtaining 85% of the maximum possible yield

• The authors of the Litany argue fisheries management has failed and we need to look for new solutions

We have the solutions in hand

• There are many successful fisheries

• We need to look to the successful examples and learn from them, not look for “new” solutions

Bristol Bay sockeye stand out as a success story in sustainable

biological management• A single management

agency with clear biological objectives

• Good ocean conditions from 1977-1996

0

10

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1893

1900

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1935

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Cat

ch in

mill

ion

s o

f fi

sh

A key to this sustainability is management by escapement goal

In escapement goal management the fishery is regulated to assure that a target number of fish “escape” the fishery and reach the spawning grounds, assuring the long term productivity of the stock

Ugashik

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

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9,000

10,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Calendar Year

Cat

ch a

nd

Esc

apem

ent

Biocomplexity of the stocks is also a key

• Diversity in life history– Spawning on beaches, in creeks, in rivers– Diversity of freshwater life 0, 1 and 2 years– Diversity of marine life, 1, 2, 3 and 4 years

• Diversity in morphology

Female

Male

Hansen Creek sockeye salmon

Bear Creek sockeye salmon

Beach spawning sockeye salmon

Diversity of Habitats and Geography

• Many different lake systems– different physical regimes

• Different times of smolt and adult migration

• Long term changes associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Large rivers between lakes have stable flows, no bear predation

Often high density spawning

Small streams often have very high density spawning: also high bear predation

Beach spawning occurs where there is upwelling or wind driven currents

Importance of climate

• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase Cool Phase

http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/

http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/

Lake Nerka, SW Alaska

Historical sockeye population dynamics

1750 1850 19501800 1900 20000

4

8

12

Year

Sal

mon

den

sity

(1

000s

/km

2 )

+ fishery catch

escapement

Schindler and Leavitt (2001)

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

1893 1905 1917 1929 1941 1953 1965 1977 1989

Naknek-Kvichak

Nushagak

Egegik

Different systems have been important at different times

Kvichak

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Nak/Br

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Egegik

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Ugashik

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Wood

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Igushik

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Nush

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Togiak

0

2

4

6

8

10

1955 1965 1975 1985

Recruits per spawner

Changing perceptions

• In the 1940s 50s or 60s no one would have ever expected Egegik to be the most important system in Bristol Bay

• In the 1970s no one would have expected the Nushagak to be the most important system in the bay

• Many had never heard of the Alagnak!• Not on many maps

Alagnak River

Alagnak

Alagnak river escapements

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Spatial scale hypotheses

• The role of biocomplexity and response to climate extends to all spatial scales– We know it occurs on Pacific wide scales

• Documented negative correlation between lower 48 and Alaskan salmon productivity

– We see it at smaller scales• At different spawning sites in a stream

• Even within sections of a stream

Nerka Kema Creek

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

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12000

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16000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Aleknagik Happy Creek

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5000

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30000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

The human side of the story

• For all of the excitement over the biological success, the social and economic success has faded

• It was once possible to clear $50,000 in a 6 week season

The human biocomplexity

• The fishing fleet and processing industry is as diverse as the fish

• Diversity of fishing gears

• Diversity of strategies – mobile, stationary, resident non resident, high capital input, low capital input

The fishery

• 2000 drift gillnet boats and 1000 shore based “set net” gill nets

• Fishery from 25 June to 15 July

• Product is both canned and frozen

• Canned market UK and Europe, Frozen Japan

Photo Robert Kope

Photo Robert Kope

Photo Robert Kope

The race for fish

• Is widely recognized as the primary economic problem in worlds fisheries

• In the 1930’s 30 million salmon were caught in Bristol Bay by 2000 sail powered boats

• We don’t need 2000 high powered vessels• State policy is to spread the wealth to as

many as possible

The management system

The Management System

The fish

The fleet

The managers

The biocomplexity of Bristol BayPrice and Revenue

Climate

The potential adaptation of the human system is restricted by

regulation

• Regulations determine how many and what type of fishing takes place

• There is very limited ability to adapt• We expect that “the struggle for existence” will by

default take place within existing regulations• We are modelling alternatives to the current

regulatory structure including cooperative fishing programs as seen at Chignik

General Lessons

• Biocomplexity appears to be important in stabilizing total productivity over a range of spatial scales in both fish and human systems

• Systems that are productive in one epoch are much less productive in other epochs– The lesson is maintain the stock structure– what seems unimportant now may be very important

later

• The regulatory structure imposed threatens the ability of the human system to adapt

Some other examples

• Ecosystems change

• The productivity of different species changes

52

The “worst” fisheries disaster of the last 20 yearsCollapse of the Northern Cod fishery in

Newfoundland

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1850 1900 1950 2000

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tch

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Value of fish products landed in Newfoundland

0

50

100

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1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Groundfish

Shellfish

Landed value in New England

$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

$700,000,000

$800,000,000

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Gulf of Alaska – Small set of structuring variables operating at different speeds - Whammo!

“If the biota, in the course of aeons, has built something we like but do not understand, then who but a fool would discard seemingly useless parts? To keep every cog and wheel is the first precaution of intelligent tinkering.”

Aldo Leopold Round River

Conclusions

Final Lessons

• Maintain flexible social institutions: fishing communities need to adapt

• This issue has not been on the legislative agenda

• The fisheries crisis is one of governance

• We know what to do: solutions are available

Acknowledgements

• The FRI pioneers who started and maintained 57 years of continuous data– Bud Burgner, Ole Matiesen, Don Rogers

• The staff of Alaska Department of Fish and Game who continue much of the original work and maintain many of the data bases: Lowell Fair, Jeff Regnart, Jim Browning, Brian Bue